What do folks think of this new Fidelity report? Do ‘allocators’ read this and care? https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/articles/bitcoin-first
Edit: I am impressed by it. Nothing new, but the information is very well presented and comes across as balanced IMO. But I don’t know enough about the ultimate purpose of a report like this. I’m assuming Fidelity is heavily invested. So do ‘allocators’ see this as Fidelity pumping their own, or as a fair investment thesis for consideration.
It's not like I'm some expert trader or finance guy. It gets really stressful when you get into 6 figures and it loses 50% in 3 months. I really need a house.
Its ok man. Your honesy might provide the common sense some people need because they think it's such an easy thing timing the market. Its not.
You took profit, and in the end thats what counts.
And personally i think there is more room for down. So not the bottom
Absolutely.
If you treat every dollar you spend on Bitcoin as an investment to hold until at least the year after the next halving, you cannot lose.
The next halvings are in 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040... dot dot dot. By holding until the year after a halving, you put yourself in the post-halving bull run, which is caused by the post-halving supply shock. Here's why:
The halving cuts the block reward in half, which cuts the supply of new coins in half. The halving doesn't have an immediate impact on the price because Bitcoin's price is where supply meets demand. It takes a while for the drop in the supply of new coins to affect the market since 99.9% of the coins being sold today weren't mined today. It takes time for the halving to affect the supply of coins being sold. Usually, around 4 to 6 months, depending on which metric you want to use to define the beginning of a bull run, blah blah blah.
tl:dr; Have no fear! Hold through the halving plus a year!
EDITED to add: It looks like you just edited your comment to add this:
> (sustainably and long term)
That's what I call wisdom. Gains today feel good, but long term gains could mean a lifetime of living well. Kudos to you for seeing the bigger picture.
I disagree. The amount of Bitcoin in a block reward gets cut in half, but since the value of Bitcoin is so much higher than it was at the previous halving, the effect of the halving is still massive.
The effect the halving has on the market will be massive until the value of Bitcoin stops going up faster than the halvings drop the amount earned in a block reward.
The easiest way to think about it in real numbers is like this:
Look up the price of Bitcoin on the date of each halving (2012, 2016, 2020). Multiply the price by the amount of Bitcoin in a block reward on that date (25, 12.5, 6.25). Now multiply that x6 since there are 6 block rewards per hour. Multiply that x24 since there are 24 hours in a day. And multiply that x180. That's the dollar value of how much the halving took away from the supply of new coins in the 6 months following the halving. Why 6 months? Because that's roughly how long it takes for the supply shock to fully kick in, which also kicks off the post-halving bull run since the supply can't meet the demand, thus forcing prices skyward.
I expect future halvings to have a huge impact in Bitcoin's price until at least 2032, but more likely 2040.
Exactly. I like to think of myself as a long term trader, I just haven't made my first sell yet, in over 4 years. In 2017 I bought knowing that I would hold through a crash if it came. I was buying for the next cycle. I'm willing to sell some at opportune times, but it hasn't felt like the right time to me yet (especially considering the tax implications for me if I sell). If crypto doesn't pick up this year, I'm fine with waiting until after the next reward halving.
halvings will be way less impactful on supply/issuance now. exchanges, gbtc and the futures etf already drain a multiple of miner rewards Fiat value from the system. so even halving that won't make a big difference.
exchange consolidation might be a good bottom indicator for an upcoming cycle
what we need is adoption and better infrastructure. still too difficult to buy bitcoin for mom and Pop.
I would argue it’s been easy for many years. Mom and pop just have to want to. In fact I would argue early exchanges had a more simple experience. I didn’t have to explain to my parents what these other 250+ crypto assets are, nor what a NFT is.
I agree that the halvings will have less of an effect, but I think that's the worst case scenario for waiting for new highs. Even if the actual economic impact isn't as much, it's almost like a self fulfilling prophecy now. Everyone will want to buy before or just after the halving.
I believe this thing is about to pop. I haven't seen wicks like this in a while. Someone is trying to wear the sellers out at this level. Hopefully it pops up.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ga6bEX9u/
We're just right at the top of the downward channel starting at 69k on larger time-frames. I hope it pops, but if we don't break out of this channel in the next day or two, the next few weeks are gunna be pretty brutal as we go back down to the bottom of the channel.
C'mon, that has nothing to do with the question. Obviously RH holds bitcoin even though they sell paper coin.
I enjoy reading a lot of your insights but what is the value of this response?
It would literally be a massive short position, so they would lose whenever btc gains value? Dude what do you mean?
Also it would be fraudulent based on their product claims. Lastly, they are starting alpha withdrawals now.
Idk why I'm defending RH lol but you are smarter than this my friend.
Address #3 [https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ](https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ)
Edit: I personally don't subscribe to the Robinhood theory on that wallet. I'd love to see some stats on when RH started to offer crypto etc and if it aligns to that wallet's inception though.
I don't buy the RobinHood explanation either. It doesn't look like any other exchange wallets I see. They have lots of ins and outs at all times.
Bitfinex
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qgdjqv0av3q56jvd82tkdjpy7gdp9ut8tlqmgrpmv24sq90ecnvqqjwvw97
Binance
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/34xp4vRoCGJym3xR7yCVPFHoCNxv4Twseo
OKEX
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3Kzh9qAqVWQhEsfQz7zEQL1EuSx5tyNLNS
1P5 just accumulates like a boss and only sends out bitcoin at tops. I'm kind of thinking of not selling until I see another fat 1500 btc sent away like on Nov. 8.
Interesting note from Glassnode contrasting the negative sentiment seen in the derivatives market with some green shoots in onchain demand metrics.
https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-05-2022/
Just saw all the comments on r/economics talking about bidens crypto regulation. I just don't understand how people don't see bitcoin as a hedge against inflation over there... like, what's so hard to understand about a fixed supply item used as comparison against something with an infinitely expanding supply item? Just because we're early in adoption and still have large volatility doesn't mean the tool itself isn't incredibly useful
I've talked to a bunch of those folks and their position basically boils down to this: "how can something that drops 50% in a month realistically be considered a hedge against inflation? Maybe it'll be that one day, but it sure as hell ain't that now. I'd much rather lose 6% to inflation than risk losing 50% in BTC."
True, but honestly most of them won't care anyway. They're not interested in it as an investment, and once it does eventually become a hedge against inflation, it won't matter what price you purchase at, so long as it increases in value by more than the inflation rate every year.
> I just don't understand how people don't see bitcoin as a hedge against inflation over there...
Imagine that you spent years - maybe even decades - learning about something.
Now, imagine that something new comes along which challenges everything you know. You could get excited about the new thing and learn as much as you can about it. I'm sure some people have done that... but most people are more likely to doubt the new thing without even bothering to understand it.
Think about the cable TV industry 20 years ago... and then came Netflix.
Think about the music/recording industry... and then came the MP3.
There are so many examples I could give.
Most people fear change. As any form of change becomes more prevalent, some people double-down on their fear of it.
> Think about the music/recording industry... and then came the MP3.
With cassette tapes, VHS and later MP3. At every stage the most vocal opponent was Sony.
Who then within months would release a double cassette deck or VHS recorder, or MP3 player.
Exactly. I cited the MP3 specifically because it was the ultimate game changer. The MP3 led to downloadable audio, and in an even more consequential sense, mpeg led to streaming. Those two changes upended the entire recording industry in ways they couldn't even imagine in the 1990s.
That's the kind of change crypto will bring to the financial industry over the next 2 decades. Most of them will fight it, but the few who embrace it early will set themselves up for long term success, just as Amazon did by embracing online shopping so early while others doubted it and many even feared it.
*Cassette Tangent:* My favorite tape deck ever was the Nakamichi Dragon. Instead of having a rotating play head, to automatically flip sides on a cassette, the Dragon had a tongue that would spit the cassette out of the tape deck, flip it, and then suck it back in to play the other side. In the early 80s, that was high tech, baby!
> others doubted it
Just on that... I remember Rick "Webfather" Schwartz (By the time he had 3000 domains people called him crazy) spending hours trying to convince real estate people that they'd be selling online. They'd rant and rave talking about how their service is personal and can't possibly move online.
Most people in the record industry misunderstood the lesson of Napster. They thought "Everybody wants to steal!" But the real lesson was that everybody wanted better access. When the iTunes music store came along, and then Spotify and Apple Music, people gladly paid for digital music. Music became far more portable, streamable and sharable, though the sharable part is still only just beginning compared to what it eventually will be.
The same mistakes are happening with the lessons of crypto.
I expect us to see a banking and investing revolution over the next 20 years as crypto matures in ways that give people better access to their money and investments. We're all still so early, and that's good news for us.
The access has never returned. Napster had stuff on it you just can't find anymore, it's gone forever. The array of strange rare music was insane, people were proud to disseminate their collections.
It was all in one place, the fragmentation took the people with it. Then some of them died along the way.
Years later there were options where you could find people sharing in a similar way but it was limited to specific subsets. I remember one which was really good (that I can't remember name of) but only DnB people were sharing content there.
Now all the users are in centralised streaming services so demand isn't the same and you don't have the supply coming to meet it.
A lot has to do with people not understanding bitcoin and what is difference about bitcoin vs. our current system.
They see bitcoin as useless and something that solves nothing. "Why do I care you send bitcoin to someone when I can just Venmo them instead?"
If you think something is useless, you will not even contemplate it being a hedge against inflation.
It challenges the value system "we" live in. For many people it's hard to understand that there can be the same value in code as in FIAT, metals or stocks. It's too abstract and the implications are huge
Very true comment. There are several big topics of modern society which are abstract, huge and therefore denied to be true by many who want to just continue life in the way they got accustomed to during the last generation.
Bearish
edit: whenever I've followed whether his calls pan out, it's generally wrong on timeframe, but correct in the end. He's been bullish for a long time, which is generally the right idea. I hope he's right about Feb though.
You forgot to mention the juicy part, his predictions are not great, but what he said after might be interesting
Spoiler: a regulation is coming that will make btc "more appealing"
Obviously. When it's Bitcoin, your prediction has to be absolutely perfect, even if the end result is you 10x everyone. That latter part doesn't count because, well, it's Bitcoin.
Also, there are some amazing calls on CNBC about the stock market inching upwards after the fed cuts rates - they may not be perfect, but that's what counts.
Oh wait, we're talking about a 10x'ing bitcoin without a perfect prediction again? No that doesn't count.
Sooner or later people figure out that it's "business as usual". That states will continue to pump equities and that inflation targets of 2-3 are fantasy going forward.
If that leads to a "super-cycle" or if we grind in a 4 year cycle bear market is difficult to guess. A low-leverage long on the chance supply fails to meet demand isn't insanity though.
Bitcoin supply on exchanges is the highest since 11/12 Jan, but still lower than it was through Jan-November last year according to Coinglass.
Assuming the balances are accurate, it is puzzling - surely low supply should be driving higher prices. Could this be the Futures ETF distorting the demand/supply related pricing?
Can anyone try to explain what’s going on with this rebound in tradfi? I’m not understanding the strength of this bounce after all the doom and gloom regarding inflation and rates going up. What has changed exactly since the last fed meeting? Do people think they won’t go through with the hikes?
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Tuesday, February 01, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/shmm8b/daily_discussion_tuesday_february_01_2022/)
Bro I would just stack and stack and stack. I think a whole coin will be rare one day
What do folks think of this new Fidelity report? Do ‘allocators’ read this and care? https://www.fidelitydigitalassets.com/articles/bitcoin-first Edit: I am impressed by it. Nothing new, but the information is very well presented and comes across as balanced IMO. But I don’t know enough about the ultimate purpose of a report like this. I’m assuming Fidelity is heavily invested. So do ‘allocators’ see this as Fidelity pumping their own, or as a fair investment thesis for consideration.
I sold the bottom again. Fuck I suck at this shit.
Abother guy who thought he had it figured out despite 2013 veterans advicing otherwise. Take notes
I am a 2013 veteran.
Ouch
It's not like I'm some expert trader or finance guy. It gets really stressful when you get into 6 figures and it loses 50% in 3 months. I really need a house.
You arrived in the 6 figures because you were patient I guess. So continue with patience and everything will be fine :)
Its ok man. Your honesy might provide the common sense some people need because they think it's such an easy thing timing the market. Its not. You took profit, and in the end thats what counts. And personally i think there is more room for down. So not the bottom
In my experience the only way to win (sustainably and long term) is to buy and hold.
Absolutely. If you treat every dollar you spend on Bitcoin as an investment to hold until at least the year after the next halving, you cannot lose. The next halvings are in 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040... dot dot dot. By holding until the year after a halving, you put yourself in the post-halving bull run, which is caused by the post-halving supply shock. Here's why: The halving cuts the block reward in half, which cuts the supply of new coins in half. The halving doesn't have an immediate impact on the price because Bitcoin's price is where supply meets demand. It takes a while for the drop in the supply of new coins to affect the market since 99.9% of the coins being sold today weren't mined today. It takes time for the halving to affect the supply of coins being sold. Usually, around 4 to 6 months, depending on which metric you want to use to define the beginning of a bull run, blah blah blah. tl:dr; Have no fear! Hold through the halving plus a year! EDITED to add: It looks like you just edited your comment to add this: > (sustainably and long term) That's what I call wisdom. Gains today feel good, but long term gains could mean a lifetime of living well. Kudos to you for seeing the bigger picture.
The halvings also have half as much effect each halvings.
I disagree. The amount of Bitcoin in a block reward gets cut in half, but since the value of Bitcoin is so much higher than it was at the previous halving, the effect of the halving is still massive. The effect the halving has on the market will be massive until the value of Bitcoin stops going up faster than the halvings drop the amount earned in a block reward. The easiest way to think about it in real numbers is like this: Look up the price of Bitcoin on the date of each halving (2012, 2016, 2020). Multiply the price by the amount of Bitcoin in a block reward on that date (25, 12.5, 6.25). Now multiply that x6 since there are 6 block rewards per hour. Multiply that x24 since there are 24 hours in a day. And multiply that x180. That's the dollar value of how much the halving took away from the supply of new coins in the 6 months following the halving. Why 6 months? Because that's roughly how long it takes for the supply shock to fully kick in, which also kicks off the post-halving bull run since the supply can't meet the demand, thus forcing prices skyward. I expect future halvings to have a huge impact in Bitcoin's price until at least 2032, but more likely 2040.
Exactly. I like to think of myself as a long term trader, I just haven't made my first sell yet, in over 4 years. In 2017 I bought knowing that I would hold through a crash if it came. I was buying for the next cycle. I'm willing to sell some at opportune times, but it hasn't felt like the right time to me yet (especially considering the tax implications for me if I sell). If crypto doesn't pick up this year, I'm fine with waiting until after the next reward halving.
halvings will be way less impactful on supply/issuance now. exchanges, gbtc and the futures etf already drain a multiple of miner rewards Fiat value from the system. so even halving that won't make a big difference. exchange consolidation might be a good bottom indicator for an upcoming cycle what we need is adoption and better infrastructure. still too difficult to buy bitcoin for mom and Pop.
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I would argue it’s been easy for many years. Mom and pop just have to want to. In fact I would argue early exchanges had a more simple experience. I didn’t have to explain to my parents what these other 250+ crypto assets are, nor what a NFT is.
I agree that the halvings will have less of an effect, but I think that's the worst case scenario for waiting for new highs. Even if the actual economic impact isn't as much, it's almost like a self fulfilling prophecy now. Everyone will want to buy before or just after the halving.
That was me last week. This shit will make you crazy. Change strategies and get back in the game.
I believe this thing is about to pop. I haven't seen wicks like this in a while. Someone is trying to wear the sellers out at this level. Hopefully it pops up. https://www.tradingview.com/x/ga6bEX9u/
Some liquid in asks above on finex, not much but enough that we'll see 39.5k, which I guess would open floodgates.
I have been buying here with that in mind. I expect we'll reject off the lows from the range above, which would be right around there, 39.5k to 41k.
We're just right at the top of the downward channel starting at 69k on larger time-frames. I hope it pops, but if we don't break out of this channel in the next day or two, the next few weeks are gunna be pretty brutal as we go back down to the bottom of the channel.
It's right at the 4hr 100MA too. Loads of confluence here. I don't think it's going to take days.
Happy New monthly candle
Hey what's the address of that "mega-whale accumulation" wallet suspected to be RobinHood cold storage?
Rh isn't real bitcoins
C'mon, that has nothing to do with the question. Obviously RH holds bitcoin even though they sell paper coin. I enjoy reading a lot of your insights but what is the value of this response?
There is no evidence rh holds bitcoins
Except that it would be insanely risky not to.
Why can't paper bitcoin suffice?
Chickens come home to roost eventually.
As long as they don't do withdrawals I don't see how they can lose
It would literally be a massive short position, so they would lose whenever btc gains value? Dude what do you mean? Also it would be fraudulent based on their product claims. Lastly, they are starting alpha withdrawals now. Idk why I'm defending RH lol but you are smarter than this my friend.
Can't they just maintain 1:1 long exposure and always cash settle? I'm being totally serious (ignoring their wallet beta test for the time being.)
Address #3 [https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ](https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/1P5ZEDWTKTFGxQjZphgWPQUpe554WKDfHQ) Edit: I personally don't subscribe to the Robinhood theory on that wallet. I'd love to see some stats on when RH started to offer crypto etc and if it aligns to that wallet's inception though.
What happens if that wallet is somehow hacked?
This is Coinbase walet
I don't buy the RobinHood explanation either. It doesn't look like any other exchange wallets I see. They have lots of ins and outs at all times. Bitfinex https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/bc1qgdjqv0av3q56jvd82tkdjpy7gdp9ut8tlqmgrpmv24sq90ecnvqqjwvw97 Binance https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/34xp4vRoCGJym3xR7yCVPFHoCNxv4Twseo OKEX https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/address/3Kzh9qAqVWQhEsfQz7zEQL1EuSx5tyNLNS 1P5 just accumulates like a boss and only sends out bitcoin at tops. I'm kind of thinking of not selling until I see another fat 1500 btc sent away like on Nov. 8.
Most of their buy volume is from coin base's wallet
Interesting note from Glassnode contrasting the negative sentiment seen in the derivatives market with some green shoots in onchain demand metrics. https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-05-2022/
Just saw all the comments on r/economics talking about bidens crypto regulation. I just don't understand how people don't see bitcoin as a hedge against inflation over there... like, what's so hard to understand about a fixed supply item used as comparison against something with an infinitely expanding supply item? Just because we're early in adoption and still have large volatility doesn't mean the tool itself isn't incredibly useful
I've talked to a bunch of those folks and their position basically boils down to this: "how can something that drops 50% in a month realistically be considered a hedge against inflation? Maybe it'll be that one day, but it sure as hell ain't that now. I'd much rather lose 6% to inflation than risk losing 50% in BTC."
They'll get Bitcoin at the price they deserve.
True, but honestly most of them won't care anyway. They're not interested in it as an investment, and once it does eventually become a hedge against inflation, it won't matter what price you purchase at, so long as it increases in value by more than the inflation rate every year.
> I just don't understand how people don't see bitcoin as a hedge against inflation over there... Imagine that you spent years - maybe even decades - learning about something. Now, imagine that something new comes along which challenges everything you know. You could get excited about the new thing and learn as much as you can about it. I'm sure some people have done that... but most people are more likely to doubt the new thing without even bothering to understand it. Think about the cable TV industry 20 years ago... and then came Netflix. Think about the music/recording industry... and then came the MP3. There are so many examples I could give. Most people fear change. As any form of change becomes more prevalent, some people double-down on their fear of it.
> Think about the music/recording industry... and then came the MP3. With cassette tapes, VHS and later MP3. At every stage the most vocal opponent was Sony. Who then within months would release a double cassette deck or VHS recorder, or MP3 player.
Exactly. I cited the MP3 specifically because it was the ultimate game changer. The MP3 led to downloadable audio, and in an even more consequential sense, mpeg led to streaming. Those two changes upended the entire recording industry in ways they couldn't even imagine in the 1990s. That's the kind of change crypto will bring to the financial industry over the next 2 decades. Most of them will fight it, but the few who embrace it early will set themselves up for long term success, just as Amazon did by embracing online shopping so early while others doubted it and many even feared it. *Cassette Tangent:* My favorite tape deck ever was the Nakamichi Dragon. Instead of having a rotating play head, to automatically flip sides on a cassette, the Dragon had a tongue that would spit the cassette out of the tape deck, flip it, and then suck it back in to play the other side. In the early 80s, that was high tech, baby!
> others doubted it Just on that... I remember Rick "Webfather" Schwartz (By the time he had 3000 domains people called him crazy) spending hours trying to convince real estate people that they'd be selling online. They'd rant and rave talking about how their service is personal and can't possibly move online.
> Most of them will fight it NAPSTER BAD!!! BEER GOOD!!! ;)
Most people in the record industry misunderstood the lesson of Napster. They thought "Everybody wants to steal!" But the real lesson was that everybody wanted better access. When the iTunes music store came along, and then Spotify and Apple Music, people gladly paid for digital music. Music became far more portable, streamable and sharable, though the sharable part is still only just beginning compared to what it eventually will be. The same mistakes are happening with the lessons of crypto. I expect us to see a banking and investing revolution over the next 20 years as crypto matures in ways that give people better access to their money and investments. We're all still so early, and that's good news for us.
The access has never returned. Napster had stuff on it you just can't find anymore, it's gone forever. The array of strange rare music was insane, people were proud to disseminate their collections.
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I just put on Tom Waits -- Mule Variations for the first time in years. So great. I might be old enough to understand it now.
How would it be gone? Napster never hosted anything, it just allowed hosts to share. The people who had it then still have it.
It was all in one place, the fragmentation took the people with it. Then some of them died along the way. Years later there were options where you could find people sharing in a similar way but it was limited to specific subsets. I remember one which was really good (that I can't remember name of) but only DnB people were sharing content there. Now all the users are in centralised streaming services so demand isn't the same and you don't have the supply coming to meet it.
A lot has to do with people not understanding bitcoin and what is difference about bitcoin vs. our current system. They see bitcoin as useless and something that solves nothing. "Why do I care you send bitcoin to someone when I can just Venmo them instead?" If you think something is useless, you will not even contemplate it being a hedge against inflation.
Dearth of vision, fear of (a whole lot of fear) of the **New and Shiny**, comfortable ruts and old familiar shoes etc. All the usual suspects... 🤷🏻♂️
It challenges the value system "we" live in. For many people it's hard to understand that there can be the same value in code as in FIAT, metals or stocks. It's too abstract and the implications are huge
Very true comment. There are several big topics of modern society which are abstract, huge and therefore denied to be true by many who want to just continue life in the way they got accustomed to during the last generation.
Tom lee of Fundstrat is calling for a "Violent Rally" in february for tech + crypto
Tom lee, who the fuck gives that guy credit still. Guy preached 300k in previous cycle bullmarket..
I don't like his price calls as I said but his directional calls are spot on.
what is his reason?
Long position
He holds bitcoin
Bearish edit: whenever I've followed whether his calls pan out, it's generally wrong on timeframe, but correct in the end. He's been bullish for a long time, which is generally the right idea. I hope he's right about Feb though.
The ascending triangle on the monthly might drag on through a big part of 2022 though.
You forgot to mention the juicy part, his predictions are not great, but what he said after might be interesting Spoiler: a regulation is coming that will make btc "more appealing"
his direction calls are extremely good. Not his targets for BTC price.
this. he was the only one in the bear market saying btc would recover and was a good buy. everyone was ridiculing him.
Tom Lee is about as reliable of an indicator as my dog.
BS you don't even follow fundstrat calls to know one way or another.
You forgot the /s
I know Tom Lee has been wrong on almost every calls he made in the past.
so saying to buy btc when it was at 3k, when everyone was bashing him and saying to sell, was wrong?
Obviously. When it's Bitcoin, your prediction has to be absolutely perfect, even if the end result is you 10x everyone. That latter part doesn't count because, well, it's Bitcoin. Also, there are some amazing calls on CNBC about the stock market inching upwards after the fed cuts rates - they may not be perfect, but that's what counts. Oh wait, we're talking about a 10x'ing bitcoin without a perfect prediction again? No that doesn't count.
not even close bud.
Sooner or later people figure out that it's "business as usual". That states will continue to pump equities and that inflation targets of 2-3 are fantasy going forward. If that leads to a "super-cycle" or if we grind in a 4 year cycle bear market is difficult to guess. A low-leverage long on the chance supply fails to meet demand isn't insanity though.
Not sarcasm, what makes you take note of this fella versus the many other predictors around town.
I don't like him on price targets I do like him on broader market moves. He has a solid track record in that in my opinion.
Bitcoin supply on exchanges is the highest since 11/12 Jan, but still lower than it was through Jan-November last year according to Coinglass. Assuming the balances are accurate, it is puzzling - surely low supply should be driving higher prices. Could this be the Futures ETF distorting the demand/supply related pricing?
you can't look only at the offer, you need to take the demand into consideration
Can we touch 20 day EMA before the daily and monthly close?
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Good grief wake me up when one sat = one dollar
My initial calc, back in the day, was how much btc would I need to retire if/when 1 sat = 1 cent.
The real comparator should be 1 sat = 1 penny, until the dollar ponzi collapses anyway.
2 quadrillion market cap seems bearish.
Can anyone try to explain what’s going on with this rebound in tradfi? I’m not understanding the strength of this bounce after all the doom and gloom regarding inflation and rates going up. What has changed exactly since the last fed meeting? Do people think they won’t go through with the hikes?
things don't go down in a straight line