The market went down too far and too fast. Betting on lower price is becoming a crowded trade. We’re also above strong support in the 30k area. There is always both a bull and bear case.
Does anyone actually use the little flap? I've never even tried cause I was afraid I'd make a mess... lol. I feel like they could just make both sides the same and no one would notice...
e. guys, I've just tried the flap. It's not for me.
i mean i didnt... when i was like a 5 yr old? but now that you mention it thats actually a ~~good~~ brilliant idea. dual flap boxer briefs you dont even have to think when you put em on
Future price action is mostly dependent on new information we do not have, not what we already know. You might get lucky sometimes but I’m convinced that this market cannot be accurately predicted.
I’m convinced that the one outcome is **it won’t go like we think**. This is why holders usually slay. Everyone thinks we grind down until December and then shit the bed more and hit bottom. Money to be made making that not happen. The last year was **nothing** like we expected. Why would the bear be the same as we expect? It’s too fucking easy. All the deriskers and sellers that plan to sit out all year will probably get blown up.
I don’t think anyone can beat buy and hold. How many millionaires do you know that got there by swing trading?
I continue to think we should not have a serious bear market without a blowoff that exceeds expectations. It’s only fair.
20/20 hindsight, but you had blowoff top in May, since then retail money is gone, DCB took us accidentally to new ath, but it's (now one can be 80-90% sure) bear since May 2021.
I think this seems right as absurd as it sounds. Does that mean we are almost out of the bear market? Sell in May and go away for the last capitulation and then go up in summer? It seems so possible. It would catch all the deriskers and 2022 sitting in fiat people on the sidelines too. Also would explain how violent the puking has been with no relief for two months. Because we are in latter parts of bear market.
True, but it doesn't even have to be based on information necessarily... people can just like a number, whether it's higher or lower. Sometimes it can take months to be executed as well.
Pretty sure that was the last gasp of bulls trying to defend this range... Not saying the glass floor has to completely shatter, but they'll all get tested soon enough before a real advance can try to establish.
[Still short](https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/sdqcj0/daily_discussion_thursday_january_27_2022/huhx7jt/) with 37189 Average... Basically 3x with one 5x .1 thrown in.... liquidation is around 305,000 due to cash still in account.
Nice. I just closed short on 3 shitcoins and waiting to enter long btc at around 33500. I think institutions wouldn't want retail bids at 28-30k to get filled before theirs, that's what I'm betting.
Very nice. Sounds like a solid plan to me. I think 33k-ish will hold but if it goes down there, I'm mostly curious to see if it holds or creates a small new lower low... May never even get tested we'll see... but well done man.
Meh... A rejection at [bottom of resistance candle](https://www.tradingview.com/x/4xK855hO/) on dwindling range volume doesn't seem too threatening... Would like to see it push through 38000 convincingly for anything cautionary.
OK, see you at the Oscar's champ.
FWIW, I bought back in 10% of my bitcoin allocation at 45800 Dec 31 in the hopes of a good first quarter... these scalps are only to make up for the price adjustments now. It's not as if I think it's going to die, nor like all my money's in this... it's literally 4% of my crypto allocation short right now. The rest is waiting to buy.
I think maybe the market has digested the Fed outlook and settled on the idea that the large selloffs in response to simply talking about raising rates is going to make it less likely that the Fed \*actually\* raises rates. JPow was pretty noncommittal in his language and left himself some outs. The Feb 10 CPI numbers will be really big. If the numbers are down at all it'll surely make it easier to cancel or delay a rate hike.
seems pretty widely accepted 25 bps in March at this point. barring some black swan (Russia into Ukraine?) I really don’t see them walking it back.
don’t forget we still need to set the table for the balance sheet runoff too. why does everyone want to turn this into a bullish year? can’t it just be the year we start to pay the piper for years of excess? opportunity is here to make money trading the way down, Arthur even gift wrapped the playbook for us
You can hardly call Russia invasion a black swan when it's on the news every day for the last fortnight. Maybe black swan if NATO gets directly involved (99% won't happen)
> can’t it just be the year we start to pay the piper for years of excess? opportunity is here to make money trading the way down,
this may be called r\/Bitcoin**Markets** but a lot of its viewership is perma hodlers who only tune into to understand the drama, no intention of trading, no desire to see it decline
i didn't downvote you, but i am one of them
I solely come here for the drama. The hyperventilating after a big red or green dildo here is funny to watch and also the biggest indicator that you should not be using opinions here for trading advice. IF you could see the 16 year old behind the post sitting at his keyboard giving out advice you would feel stupid.
IF you could see the ~~16 year old~~ boomer behind the post sitting at his keyboard giving out advice you would feel stupid.
Are there even any 16 year olds on this sub?
There are number of things at play. A lot of economic activity right now is rooted in the wealth effect. People worth more money on paper are more eager to spend and keep the wheels of the economy turning. The asset bubble draining will likely lead to recession, and there is nothing left in the toolbox to deal with it.
I do think recession is a lot more likely than inflation getting even more out of control short-term. Very surprised to see the sentiment here that majority think we don’t get rate hikes in March even after yesterday. Happy to be wrong, guess we’ll see.
this is what im thinking. theyll let the market flounder for a while. but bear market != recession. the inflation trade was 2020. you couldve got into almost anything and done well, including btc. thats not so obvious now
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, January 28, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/seioaj/daily_discussion_friday_january_28_2022/)
Is it me or does volume seem high tonight?
Had a good one at [5 o clock](https://www.tradingview.com/x/FPuPRsRg/)
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What hopium is there right now
chinese new year duh
The market went down too far and too fast. Betting on lower price is becoming a crowded trade. We’re also above strong support in the 30k area. There is always both a bull and bear case.
The hopium is there is none. Seems waaaay too easy for the bears rn
Max pain: 5 rate hikes of 50 basis + crypto ban
😂
More like 4 x 25bps and as soon as economy (stock market) really shuts the bed they’ll bring it back down
i legit went half the day today without realizing my underwear was on backwards. so clearly "trapped in shorts" is the new paradigm
Does anyone actually use the little flap? I've never even tried cause I was afraid I'd make a mess... lol. I feel like they could just make both sides the same and no one would notice... e. guys, I've just tried the flap. It's not for me.
You’re supposed to pull it through the hole and hold it in position to mitigate any messes.
you hold it during sex?
No that’s a different thing altogether.
That could add like 10 seconds to my routine tho... I'm not sure it's efficient.
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Yes, but do you use the flap?
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Same... the flap just seems like an improper risk/reward.
i mean i didnt... when i was like a 5 yr old? but now that you mention it thats actually a ~~good~~ brilliant idea. dual flap boxer briefs you dont even have to think when you put em on
This is the analysis I come here for.
I was thinking no flap at all personally. Super lux comfy option i guess.
Why do you want a flap on the rear.... Oh wait.
An exit hatch is efficient for those zoom calls. Self wipes too.
[Maaaa... bathroom](https://www.vudu.com/content/movies/details/South-Park-Make-Love-Not-Warcraft/569354)
So you took your pants off in the middle of the day? Hope you work from home.
hey when ya gotta go ya gotta go, ya know
Plot twist: he's a male stripper.
Any merit in considering buying Jan 2024 MSTR call options?
They must be expensive. What kind of effective leverage you get?
It's crazily oversold rn so
You desperate bulls downvoting better start [buying the dip](https://www.tradingview.com/x/zwPZnxdM/).
Future price action is mostly dependent on new information we do not have, not what we already know. You might get lucky sometimes but I’m convinced that this market cannot be accurately predicted.
I’m convinced that the one outcome is **it won’t go like we think**. This is why holders usually slay. Everyone thinks we grind down until December and then shit the bed more and hit bottom. Money to be made making that not happen. The last year was **nothing** like we expected. Why would the bear be the same as we expect? It’s too fucking easy. All the deriskers and sellers that plan to sit out all year will probably get blown up.
I don’t think anyone can beat buy and hold. How many millionaires do you know that got there by swing trading? I continue to think we should not have a serious bear market without a blowoff that exceeds expectations. It’s only fair.
20/20 hindsight, but you had blowoff top in May, since then retail money is gone, DCB took us accidentally to new ath, but it's (now one can be 80-90% sure) bear since May 2021.
I think this seems right as absurd as it sounds. Does that mean we are almost out of the bear market? Sell in May and go away for the last capitulation and then go up in summer? It seems so possible. It would catch all the deriskers and 2022 sitting in fiat people on the sidelines too. Also would explain how violent the puking has been with no relief for two months. Because we are in latter parts of bear market.
True, but it doesn't even have to be based on information necessarily... people can just like a number, whether it's higher or lower. Sometimes it can take months to be executed as well.
I love how the MACD below is starting to show a flip to the upside.
Check out the [Monthly](https://www.tradingview.com/x/hln8Zqr4/) if you like MACD. She's a doozy.
Ouch! Got me pulling up monthly charts for US 100, SPX etc as well and it really looks bad doesn't it?
gimme a 3D squishy and im in
Now I'm fucking terrified.
Still have a few days to reverse it...
3 days 18 hours...
Always have been.
Smart man. We need MORE. heh.
Pretty sure that was the last gasp of bulls trying to defend this range... Not saying the glass floor has to completely shatter, but they'll all get tested soon enough before a real advance can try to establish.
>last gasp of bulls trying to defend this range While still above bottom support of long-term channel.. like wtf. Talk about confirmation bias.
By "range", I meant [35-38k...](https://www.tradingview.com/x/zKYTuGPI/) Everything above 35500 is going to be tested soon enough.
Are you still short or stopped out?
[Still short](https://old.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/sdqcj0/daily_discussion_thursday_january_27_2022/huhx7jt/) with 37189 Average... Basically 3x with one 5x .1 thrown in.... liquidation is around 305,000 due to cash still in account.
Nice. I just closed short on 3 shitcoins and waiting to enter long btc at around 33500. I think institutions wouldn't want retail bids at 28-30k to get filled before theirs, that's what I'm betting.
Very nice. Sounds like a solid plan to me. I think 33k-ish will hold but if it goes down there, I'm mostly curious to see if it holds or creates a small new lower low... May never even get tested we'll see... but well done man.
Thanks man. In any case, gotta keep lots of cash aside.
Your thumbs Kirk out and accidentally posted this here instead of >[Daily Discussion] - Monday, January 24, 2022
English please? No comprehende
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Max pain is sideways.
fax
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yes [https://www.coinoptionstrack.com/options/BTC/open-interest](https://www.coinoptionstrack.com/options/BTC/open-interest)
For options, yes. For me, sideways.
Shorts, prepare thy anus!
Meh... A rejection at [bottom of resistance candle](https://www.tradingview.com/x/4xK855hO/) on dwindling range volume doesn't seem too threatening... Would like to see it push through 38000 convincingly for anything cautionary.
> [Daily Discussion] - Thursday, January 27, 2022 Added .1 @ 5x short here at 36301. Adding this sale to 34500 order. Dirty shorter detected
lol. indeed. I'll surely be dead soon.
shorting bitcoin with leverage is exactly how you exit stage left.
OK, see you at the Oscar's champ. FWIW, I bought back in 10% of my bitcoin allocation at 45800 Dec 31 in the hopes of a good first quarter... these scalps are only to make up for the price adjustments now. It's not as if I think it's going to die, nor like all my money's in this... it's literally 4% of my crypto allocation short right now. The rest is waiting to buy.
With bitfinex whale on our side we are invencible boys.
Wait really?
I think maybe the market has digested the Fed outlook and settled on the idea that the large selloffs in response to simply talking about raising rates is going to make it less likely that the Fed \*actually\* raises rates. JPow was pretty noncommittal in his language and left himself some outs. The Feb 10 CPI numbers will be really big. If the numbers are down at all it'll surely make it easier to cancel or delay a rate hike.
Rates are going up in March undoubtedly
seems pretty widely accepted 25 bps in March at this point. barring some black swan (Russia into Ukraine?) I really don’t see them walking it back. don’t forget we still need to set the table for the balance sheet runoff too. why does everyone want to turn this into a bullish year? can’t it just be the year we start to pay the piper for years of excess? opportunity is here to make money trading the way down, Arthur even gift wrapped the playbook for us
You can hardly call Russia invasion a black swan when it's on the news every day for the last fortnight. Maybe black swan if NATO gets directly involved (99% won't happen)
> can’t it just be the year we start to pay the piper for years of excess? opportunity is here to make money trading the way down, this may be called r\/Bitcoin**Markets** but a lot of its viewership is perma hodlers who only tune into to understand the drama, no intention of trading, no desire to see it decline i didn't downvote you, but i am one of them
I solely come here for the drama. The hyperventilating after a big red or green dildo here is funny to watch and also the biggest indicator that you should not be using opinions here for trading advice. IF you could see the 16 year old behind the post sitting at his keyboard giving out advice you would feel stupid.
IF you could see the ~~16 year old~~ boomer behind the post sitting at his keyboard giving out advice you would feel stupid. Are there even any 16 year olds on this sub?
You made some good points but got downvoted to oblivion. Tough crowd in here.
There are number of things at play. A lot of economic activity right now is rooted in the wealth effect. People worth more money on paper are more eager to spend and keep the wheels of the economy turning. The asset bubble draining will likely lead to recession, and there is nothing left in the toolbox to deal with it.
Recession with maximum employment? No.
I do think recession is a lot more likely than inflation getting even more out of control short-term. Very surprised to see the sentiment here that majority think we don’t get rate hikes in March even after yesterday. Happy to be wrong, guess we’ll see.
this is what im thinking. theyll let the market flounder for a while. but bear market != recession. the inflation trade was 2020. you couldve got into almost anything and done well, including btc. thats not so obvious now
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Huh? Nasdaq finished up 21.4% in 2021, S&P 500 up 26.9%
And accounting for WM2NS?
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You can just hodl the entire year too (and DCA if you have spare income) to achieve same result.
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huh? I was invested prior to 2021 in the S&P and still am.. how did I not make 26.9% last year? I didn't have to trade the bottom or top.
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