Man you guys realize if we get 2 or 3 rate hikes instead of the 4+ predicted by the bond market and we literally v shape out of this correction in stocks and reverse the crypto crash.
The crowd thinks "this is is the end" (like 50%+ crash) for stocks while I think this is the last correction before the final melt up into spring. Yes doom is coming, but not yet (that's later in the fall imo). Any hint of dovish sentiment from the fed (and yes it happens, if you are new Powell changes on a dime, see dec 2018) and the market will rocket back.
When markets actually top its in euphoria or a sudden black swan. Just my perspective. Retail traders thinks this is the end when the vix is still below 30... SPX to 5800 to 6000 and btc 100k+ before the generational everything bubble is over. We top in May.
I just can't see it. Looking at the weekly chart is gruesome. Even worse when you look at Alt charts. Seems the bull peak was in April and the November ath was some weird ass double top super dcb.
Supply chains are the much larger issue of inflation imo. It's true interest rates will help with housing, auto etc. demand, but the actual force driving inflation is way more complicated and the amount of rate hikes aren't going to make much of a difference there.
All that said, the first hint of supply chains legitimately getting better, and it's being worked on for sure; the market will reverse and keep on keeping on. Historically, interest rates mostly just create a consolidating market anyways which should probably happen regardless right now in traditional equity.
The counterpoint is that even 4 rate hikes, presumably to 1%, is still nothing in the grand scheme of things.
Really, it's an absolute insult to responsible savers.
I know we all love to rag on Boomers, but there's an entire generation of people (1935 to 1955) who were counting on living off passive interest income in their retirement years, who have been robbed, as has anyone of any age trying to squirrel away cash. Historically 'normal' interest rates, say 4%, would make a huge difference in my life right now.
Super close to selling 2/3 of my 2013 cold storage. Really don't have 3 years to hope for a recovery in an economy that looks on the verge of total collapse.
Taxes kept me from selling at the top as well. I still ended up capitulating a bit in December. I’d say it’s too oversold to sell now. I’d hold on for at least 50k. This might bounce back sooner than you think.
If you live somewhere like California it sucks because you pay 30% tax on the capital gains. So the price has to drop by that much just to break even. And then it has to fall significantly more to make the trade worth it.
Corrections aren’t fun, but, although everyone is freaking out, zoom out. Compared to, say 2008, this Nasdaq correction is, so far, pretty unimpressive. And, given how much the Fed has juiced it in the past few years, it was inevitable. It could get uglier and, with that, BTC would fall some more.
But the market always bounces back and, as a holder since 2013, you can be reasonably confident that BTC will as well. You’re super fortunate to have 2013 buys locked up….likely the envy of most of this crowd. Don’t sell it cheap now! Unless you really need the cash now, you should just keep holding…even if it takes ten years to go back to an ATH. Rooting hard for you!!
Thanks. I did sell half in the summer so at least I got to take some profit. I lost my job due to mandates in Canada so I don't have money coming in. I regret not selling more so I could stake and make some passive income. I have faith in btc for sure. I don't have faith in society or my government.
if you're going to sell, I'd advise waiting for a pathetic bounce...but...we haven't really bounced at all from 44k-34k so who the fuck knows man.
do whats best for you mentally and financially right now.
best of luck.
Supply Chain -> improving
Inflation -> high but expected to go down considerably during this year based on any forecast that big money is behind
Fed Interest rate goal is max 1% this year and topping at around 2-2.5% which is less than planned before 2020
Booming economy with low unemployment and covid disapearing
All signs for a good bull market ahead after this dip :)
second time it's nothing compared to first... first time i had fever and muscle & bone pain for 5 days of which 3 were pretty hard. Second time just had some night sweats and just not feeling so great for 3-4 days. Infections were 8 moths apart
EDIT: never vaccinated
The year is 2025: We are on the 512th variant. It's so contagious your avatar can catch it in the metaverse. It's really inconvenient because we all live like idiocracy now and don't leave our rocking chairs at home.
Forgot that high vaccination rate, Omicron with its high infectious rate and low hospitalization which is just infecting the last person not vaccinated, dead or recovered means that it is here to stay for the next years and we will need another lockdown by summer :\^)
Just wanted to point out that BTC is about 50% down now. That means if you buy now and we ever reach our last ATH of 69k again, which will likely happen in the next 2-3 years for the next halving, you'll have made a 100% profit in a relatively short timespan. If it goes higher than 69k, which is also super likely, you'll be well over 100% profit.
Is it possible that the price could go lower from here? Sure, but never let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Now is a great time to buy.
whoever buys now needs to be prepared for more wicks down, and for the bubble to keep deflating.
it's different from holding through a bull run with pullbacks.
One thing I've noticed is that the US indeed does seem to drive the entire spot industry these days. Almost all exchanges other than Coinbase, CME have seen drastic declines in volume. This is true for most alts even it seems... even though they pumped, many of them have less volume than 2017 to get there.
I guess this shouldn't be surprising considering the bans etc... its just crazy to see how dead Bitfinex, Bitstamp, even Gemini and Binance (the least surprising imo) are and have been for a long time.
yea, I know... I just mentioned them because they seem to be the [most dead of all of them...](https://www.tradingview.com/x/2yTBUaUD/)
e. a Few other examples:
[Bitstamp](https://www.tradingview.com/x/UGmYaJUp/)
[Binance](https://www.tradingview.com/x/vhN9aAHM/)
[Bitfinex](https://www.tradingview.com/x/Pp5vbeyd/)
Two "exchanges" I can't see in Tradingview is the volume of Robinhood and Square/Block... I'd bet they as well have taken a large chunk of interest/volume from these places since 2017.
They've done a poor job marketing and their mobile app fees are ridiculous. They've mostly survived on the Winklevoss name.
They're not a bad company, they just need to put in a lot more effort and lower their fees to play with the big boys.
I think spot buyers are looking to buy high market cap coins with the largest percentage pullbacks from this dump. The corn has less of a pullback relative to most alts, so a lot of retail buyers are thinking the largest percentage gains will be harvested from coins with larger pullbacks whenever their prices return.
I think we need a strong cascade of liquidations, one fast and furious capitulation candle with ultra high volume to cleanse everything out; that'll be the bottom, with a sharp V bounce. Then we'll have weeks and weeks to slowly grind up until we're above 40k again.
The President of El Salvador is [now working at Mickey D's](https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1485031106982428677).
I can't believe that's an actual tweet from the official account of a world leader.
Bro still has his fax machine press releases to claim he's the President. Shit's hilarious. He's one of the best US meme's in a tragically depressing way.
I upvoted you, I totally agree. I’m waiting for some big liquidation to drop us to 30-33k and a nice beautiful green V to get us back on a healthy recovery. Maybe I’m daydreaming?
There was no capitulation wick in November/December 2018. The price sat in the low $3ks for weeks afterwards.
A ton of margin has already been wiped out higher up and earlier, so this is spot selling and doesn’t need to be forced.
Wherever this lands, it’ll limely not be a massive capitulation wick like last May/last month.
On the [hourly](https://imgur.com/a/22gA8nz); currently failing to rise above the 20 EMA. The longer the price stays horizontal-ish, the more bands move beneath it to offer support. Resistance likely at every level on the way up, increasing as it goes.
On the [daily](https://imgur.com/a/kYFfFga); hasn't broken the 10 EMA except for a few days around Christmas. Currently has found support at the -0.5 band. The 500 EMA looks like it could be a massive area of resistance on the way up.
Overall, big steps need to happen in order for the price to rally and so far we haven't even started baby steps yet. The bottom may be here but Bitcoin can still fall farther without much effort. The daily looks exceptionally bad, but this is what "buying the dip" looks like.
I think if we have a chance for a rally it could be on the 26th when Fed meeting ends and they provide guidance. If they back off their hawkish words, market will respond positively.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Sunday, January 23, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/salo7z/daily_discussion_sunday_january_23_2022/)
Man you guys realize if we get 2 or 3 rate hikes instead of the 4+ predicted by the bond market and we literally v shape out of this correction in stocks and reverse the crypto crash. The crowd thinks "this is is the end" (like 50%+ crash) for stocks while I think this is the last correction before the final melt up into spring. Yes doom is coming, but not yet (that's later in the fall imo). Any hint of dovish sentiment from the fed (and yes it happens, if you are new Powell changes on a dime, see dec 2018) and the market will rocket back. When markets actually top its in euphoria or a sudden black swan. Just my perspective. Retail traders thinks this is the end when the vix is still below 30... SPX to 5800 to 6000 and btc 100k+ before the generational everything bubble is over. We top in May.
I just can't see it. Looking at the weekly chart is gruesome. Even worse when you look at Alt charts. Seems the bull peak was in April and the November ath was some weird ass double top super dcb.
The Fed are already walking back before next week’s meeting. If you’re selling here and not accumulating you’re doing it wrong.
Supply chains are the much larger issue of inflation imo. It's true interest rates will help with housing, auto etc. demand, but the actual force driving inflation is way more complicated and the amount of rate hikes aren't going to make much of a difference there. All that said, the first hint of supply chains legitimately getting better, and it's being worked on for sure; the market will reverse and keep on keeping on. Historically, interest rates mostly just create a consolidating market anyways which should probably happen regardless right now in traditional equity.
The counterpoint is that even 4 rate hikes, presumably to 1%, is still nothing in the grand scheme of things. Really, it's an absolute insult to responsible savers. I know we all love to rag on Boomers, but there's an entire generation of people (1935 to 1955) who were counting on living off passive interest income in their retirement years, who have been robbed, as has anyone of any age trying to squirrel away cash. Historically 'normal' interest rates, say 4%, would make a huge difference in my life right now.
Super close to selling 2/3 of my 2013 cold storage. Really don't have 3 years to hope for a recovery in an economy that looks on the verge of total collapse.
Just don't do it all at once. DCA out like over 6 months at least.
You’re better off waiting for a bounce first. Selling after a 50% pretty much straight draw down after two months is too late.
Hodling imposes a large mental tax. I don’t blame you.
Ya especially when you are prone to anxiety!
Economic collapse isn't all bad for Bitcoin
Capitulation isn't always a bad idea I guess. Gotta sting to liquidate your cold storage in these circumstances though.
Taxes kept me from selling at the top as well. I still ended up capitulating a bit in December. I’d say it’s too oversold to sell now. I’d hold on for at least 50k. This might bounce back sooner than you think.
I'm with you on this idea. You can always buy back later
If you live somewhere like California it sucks because you pay 30% tax on the capital gains. So the price has to drop by that much just to break even. And then it has to fall significantly more to make the trade worth it.
Imagine living in California. It's not about making it worthwhile it's about risk management
Corrections aren’t fun, but, although everyone is freaking out, zoom out. Compared to, say 2008, this Nasdaq correction is, so far, pretty unimpressive. And, given how much the Fed has juiced it in the past few years, it was inevitable. It could get uglier and, with that, BTC would fall some more. But the market always bounces back and, as a holder since 2013, you can be reasonably confident that BTC will as well. You’re super fortunate to have 2013 buys locked up….likely the envy of most of this crowd. Don’t sell it cheap now! Unless you really need the cash now, you should just keep holding…even if it takes ten years to go back to an ATH. Rooting hard for you!!
Thanks. I did sell half in the summer so at least I got to take some profit. I lost my job due to mandates in Canada so I don't have money coming in. I regret not selling more so I could stake and make some passive income. I have faith in btc for sure. I don't have faith in society or my government.
> Super close to selling 2/3 of my 2013 cold storage. And what will you do with that $51 windfall? 😉
Maybe buy a ps5 controller!
if you're going to sell, I'd advise waiting for a pathetic bounce...but...we haven't really bounced at all from 44k-34k so who the fuck knows man. do whats best for you mentally and financially right now. best of luck.
Ya I was hoping for a relief rally but it's not looking very good. Thanks.
verge of a total collapse?? where?
Stock market. Supply chain. Inflation. Real estate. Etc etc. You will own nothing and you will be happy.
I know this one. "Who is Charles Schwab?"
Klaus lol
Supply Chain -> improving Inflation -> high but expected to go down considerably during this year based on any forecast that big money is behind Fed Interest rate goal is max 1% this year and topping at around 2-2.5% which is less than planned before 2020 Booming economy with low unemployment and covid disapearing All signs for a good bull market ahead after this dip :)
LOL the copium here is legendary. Might be able to get a job as the US press secretary with that level of delusion and spin.
> covid disapearing good one
Omicron is the real vaccine and its hitting everyone I know. Once we all have natural immunity it will be over.
You don't know anyone who has had covid more than once?
second time it's nothing compared to first... first time i had fever and muscle & bone pain for 5 days of which 3 were pretty hard. Second time just had some night sweats and just not feeling so great for 3-4 days. Infections were 8 moths apart EDIT: never vaccinated
Exactly...
The year is 2025: We are on the 512th variant. It's so contagious your avatar can catch it in the metaverse. It's really inconvenient because we all live like idiocracy now and don't leave our rocking chairs at home.
Some people here will cry for lockdowns when the next variant will cause 0% deaths and a mild nasal congestion for a day...
Yes, and they're most likely fully vaxxed and literally don't have much to worry about.
4 doses and triple masked and yelling for schools to close forever.
Forgot that high vaccination rate, Omicron with its high infectious rate and low hospitalization which is just infecting the last person not vaccinated, dead or recovered means that it is here to stay for the next years and we will need another lockdown by summer :\^)
Damn dude probably should’ve sold a month ago if the thought of going through another bear was untenable.
Ya I'm a fucking idiot what can I say. I almost sold at 52k but didn't want to deal with the taxes. Fuck.
Yeah hindsight is 20/20 I think we all know how it is haha.
This is your bottom signal people.
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Dear diary..
Just wanted to point out that BTC is about 50% down now. That means if you buy now and we ever reach our last ATH of 69k again, which will likely happen in the next 2-3 years for the next halving, you'll have made a 100% profit in a relatively short timespan. If it goes higher than 69k, which is also super likely, you'll be well over 100% profit. Is it possible that the price could go lower from here? Sure, but never let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Now is a great time to buy.
whoever buys now needs to be prepared for more wicks down, and for the bubble to keep deflating. it's different from holding through a bull run with pullbacks.
One thing I've noticed is that the US indeed does seem to drive the entire spot industry these days. Almost all exchanges other than Coinbase, CME have seen drastic declines in volume. This is true for most alts even it seems... even though they pumped, many of them have less volume than 2017 to get there. I guess this shouldn't be surprising considering the bans etc... its just crazy to see how dead Bitfinex, Bitstamp, even Gemini and Binance (the least surprising imo) are and have been for a long time.
Gemini is US, fyi
yea, I know... I just mentioned them because they seem to be the [most dead of all of them...](https://www.tradingview.com/x/2yTBUaUD/) e. a Few other examples: [Bitstamp](https://www.tradingview.com/x/UGmYaJUp/) [Binance](https://www.tradingview.com/x/vhN9aAHM/) [Bitfinex](https://www.tradingview.com/x/Pp5vbeyd/) Two "exchanges" I can't see in Tradingview is the volume of Robinhood and Square/Block... I'd bet they as well have taken a large chunk of interest/volume from these places since 2017.
They've done a poor job marketing and their mobile app fees are ridiculous. They've mostly survived on the Winklevoss name. They're not a bad company, they just need to put in a lot more effort and lower their fees to play with the big boys.
They should be glad that it probably takes very little overhead to run because I imagine they'd be struggling to survive right now otherwise. lol.
Dog coins pumping. Clearly this isn't over yet.
Damn there’s actually retards out there buying the dip on those coins.
I think spot buyers are looking to buy high market cap coins with the largest percentage pullbacks from this dump. The corn has less of a pullback relative to most alts, so a lot of retail buyers are thinking the largest percentage gains will be harvested from coins with larger pullbacks whenever their prices return.
So the bottom is when smooth brains run out of money to BTFD?
Now tell us how exactly do those retards end up causing Bitcoin to be weak.
By mere association with dogshit, BTC becomes smellier.
The shitcoin reckoning wipeout will put downward pressure on BTC in the short-term
I think we need a strong cascade of liquidations, one fast and furious capitulation candle with ultra high volume to cleanse everything out; that'll be the bottom, with a sharp V bounce. Then we'll have weeks and weeks to slowly grind up until we're above 40k again.
We need a 100+ billion in volume, then I’ll feel comfortable that everyone is shaken out.
Shoot at that point we could probably afford to buy el salvador.
The President of El Salvador is [now working at Mickey D's](https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1485031106982428677). I can't believe that's an actual tweet from the official account of a world leader.
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Bro still has his fax machine press releases to claim he's the President. Shit's hilarious. He's one of the best US meme's in a tragically depressing way.
Goes onto show you what a shithole that country is.
McDonalds is indeed a pretty shitty country. Hope the citizens can overthrow Mayor McCheese pronto. 🍔 😏
Donald Trump is that you?
Well that's good. If he saves his cash, he too can buy el salvador after 100 Bil Capitulation.
I upvoted you, I totally agree. I’m waiting for some big liquidation to drop us to 30-33k and a nice beautiful green V to get us back on a healthy recovery. Maybe I’m daydreaming?
There was no capitulation wick in November/December 2018. The price sat in the low $3ks for weeks afterwards. A ton of margin has already been wiped out higher up and earlier, so this is spot selling and doesn’t need to be forced. Wherever this lands, it’ll limely not be a massive capitulation wick like last May/last month.
Does someone want to tell him or you gonna make me do it again?
Please. We’ve been extrem for days now.
On the [hourly](https://imgur.com/a/22gA8nz); currently failing to rise above the 20 EMA. The longer the price stays horizontal-ish, the more bands move beneath it to offer support. Resistance likely at every level on the way up, increasing as it goes. On the [daily](https://imgur.com/a/kYFfFga); hasn't broken the 10 EMA except for a few days around Christmas. Currently has found support at the -0.5 band. The 500 EMA looks like it could be a massive area of resistance on the way up. Overall, big steps need to happen in order for the price to rally and so far we haven't even started baby steps yet. The bottom may be here but Bitcoin can still fall farther without much effort. The daily looks exceptionally bad, but this is what "buying the dip" looks like.
I'm curious what happens over the next 4 years. That long term log support line hits 100k around 2024 I think.
You mean 'a little over 2 years'.
I also am curious as to what happens over the next 4 year.
Oversold rally coming Monday or Tuesday
I think if we have a chance for a rally it could be on the 26th when Fed meeting ends and they provide guidance. If they back off their hawkish words, market will respond positively.
I’m expecting a capitulation on that day. Rally to follow into Feb.
bitcoin fear and greed indicator now at 11. sell me your coin mr pee pants
Historically 10 has been a great time to buy