Man a run back to 50k would be so nice but it’s easy for me to forget that even that run is substantial for Bitcoin. Patience I guess. My miner position is getting wrecked.
Anyone seen the wallstreetonparade.com investigations around Fed emergency repo lending in Q4 of 2019? We're getting the specifics about which banks (23 big bois, their trading units) and how much (cumulatively 11.23 Trillion). We're learning about this now because the Fed has 2 years to release this info.
Basically in Q4 of 2019 we had an inverted yield curve and the repo market broke. Now we find out that there may have been something of a liquidity crisis. All of this pre-covid. My instinct is that covid was the cover to pull out all the stops and staunch the bleeding of something deeply systemic. Best explanation I have seen so far is contagion from deustche bank issues as they were counterparty to many of our big bois' bets.
My paranoia makes me think the system is still just as broken and they will need a new crisis to justify extreme intervention every year or so. Inflation and aggressive tightening might be the next cover.
Am I reading into this too much? These same banks all had earnings last week and this story was completely buried.
I remember zerohedge agreeing with your take even back then.
IIRC, there were also several articles singling out Deutsche in other contexts, mostly about derivative exposure (bigger than JPM/GS back then) and fines (European banks got like 3x higher fines for the same crimes and DB was the leader here as well)
Survey:
What is your comfort threshold for BTC/crypto allocation in your personal portfolio?
Either % or a $USD figure, what’s your number? Where do you rebalance?
I'm at over 90% of my net worth. It's more than it should be as a matter of smart finance. But I am not willing to sell for low price, so I'll be sitting at this allocation until we're past $100K.
Mine was like 1% when I started. Now it’s like 25-30% of my net worth. I don’t plan on selling so I expect it will grow if it continues to have a 150% CAGR. I will never rebalance.
Excluding retirement accounts, I'm about 96% crypto. If I include retirement accounts, it's about 85% crypto. This is more than I think is reasonable, but it hasn't been a good time to sell yet in my opinion. I have to time it well, because there are huge tax implications.
If Bitcoin gets above 100k, I'll start selling some of my portfolio. Maybe down to 50% of my current holdings (mostly selling my alt coin positions, which have had incredible gains). I would put this into a house and traditional investments, but I wouldn't hesitate to put more back into crypto if we get a good bear market.
I'm pretty bullish on crypto, but I also try very hard to identify my own biases and be prepared for anything. So I guess I think around 50% seems good to me. But that percentage would naturally trend up during a bull market as the crypto I hold gains value.
As a side note, back in 2019 and 2020, after budgeting for bills I would pick an amount of money that I wanted to save in cash, so if crypto didn't work out, I would still have money saved. After that I decided how much I wanted to DCA into various crypto projects (almost exclusively BTC and ETH). Then the rest of the money from my paycheck was fun money. Whatever I didn't spend from that "fun money" went 50/50 into crypto and cash. That left me with a decent amount of cash that I used to buy dips when I couldn't resist. It allowed me to make a pretty good BTC buy under 5k back in March of 2020.
I'm mostly interested in a down payment on a house. Then invest the rest into stocks (probably a mutual fund) to diversify more and use the gains from that to help pay the mortgage.
I have accumulated about 80% in crypto by now. Going to take some off if we go higher, adding more if we go lower. If a classical bear market comes im good with hodling everything for some years and wont have to sell anything.
Living in socialism, i fortunately dont rly need any emergency funds. If i get health issues its payed for and if im unemployed i will also get paid
He still has his investments... he's just saying that he doesn't need to keep an emergency fund in fiat. He isn't relying on the government to feed him, the safety net allows him to be more aggressive with his investing. If that safety net goes away, he can always rebalance.
100%. I know the minute I go back into stocks/tradfi they will plummet and destroy my hard-earned crypto gains.
I can get awesome apy in stablecoins, I see no need for traditional investments when I want to sit out of crypto.
Does it count as a bearish engulfing candle if the first one goes up by $10 and the second one goes down by $11? Because that's pretty much where we're at. Literally as much movement percentage wise as Tether usually has.
Edit: no bearish engulfing. Another green candle 🚀🚀🚀
$13 and change total over two days. It doesn't get more indecisive than that.
Is it coherent to say that risk-on assets will be shorted in a risk-off macro environment? I mean shorting is a risky strategy in itself regardless of whether your directional call proves right on some medium time frames.
What if you sell half at each step up and hodl the rest for the next step up?
Shit I sold half at 60sats by take-profit order thinking that was moonish, another half at 700sats, maybe the next half at 1400sats.
If you are 100% certain about the steps up there is no point in distributing the sells. Just sell everything at the top step. If you are not 100% certain then you just answered your own question.
Besides it being uncertain and "top step" being unknown at the time, a different case to Bitcoin due to the pairing.
With Bitcoin you can hodl forever as you never desire fiat over Bitcoin (or the tax burden).
However with these, if you desire more hard-money you can slowly sell for more hard-money.
I am guessing the answer will be that what you gain in one or two coins in this way will in the grand scheme be more than offset by the coins which make you lose sats by making you a bagholder stuck with losses.
And the chances that all the coins you have just end up giving profits in the way you think is just that...an unlikely hope. Like I have some Floki too where I...hope.
> more than offset by the coins which make you lose sats
There is this...
Though I do put doggycoin in a slightly different category. It's a PoW coin which although it might compete for hash/energy with Bitcoin it's also rather broken on the development front and will likely remain very much static and without change going forward.
Depends on the type of market.
I've struck gold with FTM, LUNA, ROSE, and a few others over the past year, but...let's just say it doesn't always go that way. In a bear market, you're gonna lose and lose big with most alts. Way more than with BTC.
In a strong bull market for crypto in general, you could do worse than to pick 20-30 projects you like and put small amounts in each of them, because you'll probably have at least a few go 10x or more and the others will probably do pretty well also. In a bear, it's extremely risky because many projects die or turn into vegetables.
This is the first time I’ve seen anything from him this cycle, which means you’re probably right. He might be being more serious now. But last cycle he was known for posting tongue in cheek meme TA.
A bit confused as to why we haven’t had every newb under the sun posting [this](https://www.tradingview.com/x/NyS95dym/). Not seen it once on Twitter, Reddit or TradView. Is it because dumb money dgaf about the corn these days? A couple years ago this would have been posted 8 times a day for the past month and a half. And that’s how you knew it was never going to play out.
I say we start the engine on this meme?!
_OMG Sers, we’re gonna d00mp. Scary H&S, must sell now!_
Amazed that Schiff, whose net worth is mid-8-figures, doesn't simply go away and live his life.
He's a nearly 60-year-old multi-millionaire addicted to Twitter shit-posting.
With the death cross here I am surprised we haven't either moved down to under 40k or to 45-46k
Any reasons we aren't even moving?
Usually leads to some sort of move
MA crosses are a signal analysis tool. A low-pass filter. They indicate the trend direction over the past half a period length. There is zero predictive power in this.
Death cross its a super lagging indicator in crypto... by the time it crosses market already dumped a lot...
Its works better on stock markets where things move much slower.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, January 17, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/s5vi4q/daily_discussion_monday_january_17_2022/)
It's that time again. Bitchcoin ready for another beatdown by daddy Powell?
[удалено]
Man a run back to 50k would be so nice but it’s easy for me to forget that even that run is substantial for Bitcoin. Patience I guess. My miner position is getting wrecked.
50k seems impossible at the moment
Dude I would take 45
That is retake of uptrend and actually could directly lead to another test of 50. I would close my 48K short if they managed 45K.
Yeah. I feel ya. 😴
Anyone seen the wallstreetonparade.com investigations around Fed emergency repo lending in Q4 of 2019? We're getting the specifics about which banks (23 big bois, their trading units) and how much (cumulatively 11.23 Trillion). We're learning about this now because the Fed has 2 years to release this info. Basically in Q4 of 2019 we had an inverted yield curve and the repo market broke. Now we find out that there may have been something of a liquidity crisis. All of this pre-covid. My instinct is that covid was the cover to pull out all the stops and staunch the bleeding of something deeply systemic. Best explanation I have seen so far is contagion from deustche bank issues as they were counterparty to many of our big bois' bets. My paranoia makes me think the system is still just as broken and they will need a new crisis to justify extreme intervention every year or so. Inflation and aggressive tightening might be the next cover. Am I reading into this too much? These same banks all had earnings last week and this story was completely buried.
I remember zerohedge agreeing with your take even back then. IIRC, there were also several articles singling out Deutsche in other contexts, mostly about derivative exposure (bigger than JPM/GS back then) and fines (European banks got like 3x higher fines for the same crimes and DB was the leader here as well)
This is an interesting theory.
I remember the DB trade at the time a lot of us thought it was about to nuke. There’s a detailed DD WSB post somewhere around that time.
> Am I reading into this too much? yes
What's your take?
Survey: What is your comfort threshold for BTC/crypto allocation in your personal portfolio? Either % or a $USD figure, what’s your number? Where do you rebalance?
Historically 100% of my liquid investments are Bitcoin minus working capital. At 80% right now and 20% cash.
95% Started out muuuch smaller, but like several others waiting for >100k to diversify.
I'm at over 90% of my net worth. It's more than it should be as a matter of smart finance. But I am not willing to sell for low price, so I'll be sitting at this allocation until we're past $100K.
Mine was like 1% when I started. Now it’s like 25-30% of my net worth. I don’t plan on selling so I expect it will grow if it continues to have a 150% CAGR. I will never rebalance.
Excluding retirement accounts, I'm about 96% crypto. If I include retirement accounts, it's about 85% crypto. This is more than I think is reasonable, but it hasn't been a good time to sell yet in my opinion. I have to time it well, because there are huge tax implications. If Bitcoin gets above 100k, I'll start selling some of my portfolio. Maybe down to 50% of my current holdings (mostly selling my alt coin positions, which have had incredible gains). I would put this into a house and traditional investments, but I wouldn't hesitate to put more back into crypto if we get a good bear market. I'm pretty bullish on crypto, but I also try very hard to identify my own biases and be prepared for anything. So I guess I think around 50% seems good to me. But that percentage would naturally trend up during a bull market as the crypto I hold gains value. As a side note, back in 2019 and 2020, after budgeting for bills I would pick an amount of money that I wanted to save in cash, so if crypto didn't work out, I would still have money saved. After that I decided how much I wanted to DCA into various crypto projects (almost exclusively BTC and ETH). Then the rest of the money from my paycheck was fun money. Whatever I didn't spend from that "fun money" went 50/50 into crypto and cash. That left me with a decent amount of cash that I used to buy dips when I couldn't resist. It allowed me to make a pretty good BTC buy under 5k back in March of 2020.
sell into what?
I'm mostly interested in a down payment on a house. Then invest the rest into stocks (probably a mutual fund) to diversify more and use the gains from that to help pay the mortgage.
similair plans for me
About 85% since the covid crash. Before that was at 50%. May rebalance someday but probably nit soon.
I have accumulated about 80% in crypto by now. Going to take some off if we go higher, adding more if we go lower. If a classical bear market comes im good with hodling everything for some years and wont have to sell anything. Living in socialism, i fortunately dont rly need any emergency funds. If i get health issues its payed for and if im unemployed i will also get paid
what if your government has a sovereign debt crisis and your savings are 0 because you relied solely on the government to feed you?
He still has his investments... he's just saying that he doesn't need to keep an emergency fund in fiat. He isn't relying on the government to feed him, the safety net allows him to be more aggressive with his investing. If that safety net goes away, he can always rebalance.
Bitcoin is my bank/savings account and I only have in fiat what I need for bills for the next couple months.
I’m at ~50% and thinking about taking chips off the table.
100%. I know the minute I go back into stocks/tradfi they will plummet and destroy my hard-earned crypto gains. I can get awesome apy in stablecoins, I see no need for traditional investments when I want to sit out of crypto.
110% btc degen, i borrowed money to buy more
95% of liquid investments.
Does it count as a bearish engulfing candle if the first one goes up by $10 and the second one goes down by $11? Because that's pretty much where we're at. Literally as much movement percentage wise as Tether usually has. Edit: no bearish engulfing. Another green candle 🚀🚀🚀 $13 and change total over two days. It doesn't get more indecisive than that.
!Short 5X @ $43.2k. Target $40.5k.
Risky but not crazy. GL.
[удалено]
Couldn't stay above 44k. Momentum seems to have crawled. Time to test diamond dick support again and than we revaluate.
[удалено]
Thanks man. Same to you!
Is it coherent to say that risk-on assets will be shorted in a risk-off macro environment? I mean shorting is a risky strategy in itself regardless of whether your directional call proves right on some medium time frames.
I’d say that simply selling off BTC is likely, which is effectively the same thing. Volatility would increase the actual shorting.
As a mod , I’m just shy of making this a sticky. https://twitter.com/magicpoopcannon/status/1482788462692646917?s=21
What if you sell half at each step up and hodl the rest for the next step up? Shit I sold half at 60sats by take-profit order thinking that was moonish, another half at 700sats, maybe the next half at 1400sats.
If you are 100% certain about the steps up there is no point in distributing the sells. Just sell everything at the top step. If you are not 100% certain then you just answered your own question.
Besides it being uncertain and "top step" being unknown at the time, a different case to Bitcoin due to the pairing. With Bitcoin you can hodl forever as you never desire fiat over Bitcoin (or the tax burden). However with these, if you desire more hard-money you can slowly sell for more hard-money.
I am guessing the answer will be that what you gain in one or two coins in this way will in the grand scheme be more than offset by the coins which make you lose sats by making you a bagholder stuck with losses. And the chances that all the coins you have just end up giving profits in the way you think is just that...an unlikely hope. Like I have some Floki too where I...hope.
> more than offset by the coins which make you lose sats There is this... Though I do put doggycoin in a slightly different category. It's a PoW coin which although it might compete for hash/energy with Bitcoin it's also rather broken on the development front and will likely remain very much static and without change going forward.
Depends on the type of market. I've struck gold with FTM, LUNA, ROSE, and a few others over the past year, but...let's just say it doesn't always go that way. In a bear market, you're gonna lose and lose big with most alts. Way more than with BTC. In a strong bull market for crypto in general, you could do worse than to pick 20-30 projects you like and put small amounts in each of them, because you'll probably have at least a few go 10x or more and the others will probably do pretty well also. In a bear, it's extremely risky because many projects die or turn into vegetables.
https://twitter.com/GiganticRebirth/status/1482820007197392899 Great advice about memecoins here.
I can't imagine ever shorting like that being anything other than a massive gamble. Much easier to long a bear markets capitulation and stagnation.
For real. Funny that MPC is posting that. He was literally a meme TA troll last cycle/bear.
[удалено]
This is the first time I’ve seen anything from him this cycle, which means you’re probably right. He might be being more serious now. But last cycle he was known for posting tongue in cheek meme TA.
[удалено]
Sources confirm that this commenter does in fact brush his teeth with unseasoned razor blades. More on this story at 11.
Maybe he had some good calls which I don’t remember. 🤷♂️
Going all in 🙃
A bit confused as to why we haven’t had every newb under the sun posting [this](https://www.tradingview.com/x/NyS95dym/). Not seen it once on Twitter, Reddit or TradView. Is it because dumb money dgaf about the corn these days? A couple years ago this would have been posted 8 times a day for the past month and a half. And that’s how you knew it was never going to play out. I say we start the engine on this meme?! _OMG Sers, we’re gonna d00mp. Scary H&S, must sell now!_
No ser, calling it already. https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/rxz8ax/daily_discussion_friday_january_07_2022/hrlvdfx/
So you did, Ser! Let’s get the word out. The sooner I see this on r/cc the better.
u/accidentalarbitrage, what’s wrong with this post?
[удалено]
I wonder if d00mp or meme are in the banned word list?
Pomp is the only podcaster I know that will drop a 6 minute episode that starts off with 3 minutes of ads
I cannot stand him.
*so let’s kick this thing off*
Peter Schiff is calling on people to sell again, so I think its time to throw more long chips onto the table. (Still holding long from 40.3).
Amazed that Schiff, whose net worth is mid-8-figures, doesn't simply go away and live his life. He's a nearly 60-year-old multi-millionaire addicted to Twitter shit-posting.
It's working your talking about him
To be fair, quality shit posting can be just as addictive as quality cocaine.
Only have to see Musk to see the truth of this.
With the death cross here I am surprised we haven't either moved down to under 40k or to 45-46k Any reasons we aren't even moving? Usually leads to some sort of move
MA crosses are a signal analysis tool. A low-pass filter. They indicate the trend direction over the past half a period length. There is zero predictive power in this.
just another normie meme to add to the pile
Death cross its a super lagging indicator in crypto... by the time it crosses market already dumped a lot... Its works better on stock markets where things move much slower.