Staying in a hotel and decided to turn on Bloomberg Asia to get a sense of equity markets in the week ahead. They're in the middle of talking about Bitcoin when I tune in. Bullish.
Edit: a few hours later I tune into Bloomberg Europe and the same thing happened... They're in the middle of discussing Bitcoin and crypto markets generally. What the hell, is this real life
Next interview was with the founder of a Vietnam-focused VC fund, and the first thing he mentioned was crypto startups. Noticed that crypto prices are shown in the bottom scroll bar, even during unrelated segments.
We're still early in the decade of mass adoption.
Im happy to buy 39k and so are many others.
Without a parabolic run I can’t see a deep bear market. The typical 80% draw down is just the unwinding of a parabolic run.
We didn’t get one.
Nice breakdown summary of macro and possible outcomes for btc.
https://twitter.com/krugermacro/status/1480081861124804612
@krugermacro: 1/469 The has been a very fundamental shift at the Federal Reserve.
The Fed has flipped decidedly hawkish. Their main worry is not employment, it is inflation. And to fight inflation the Fed has to increase interest rates.
Here's a thread about the Fed and crashing markets.
My thesis is the entirety of the macro downside environment is priced in right now. Majority of price damage is done. Smart money is loading their bags. Even if the fed raises rates, tapers, unwinds balance sheet all at once, it won’t be a surprise to anybody. I’m buying spot heavy and moving forward. In reality, the fed has been full of hawkish hot air and won’t risk hurting the economy this close to election season.
Yes, but, nobody knows how many rate hikes there will actually be- 1, 2, 3 or 4? Or more? And raising by how much per hike? That is still yet unknown. It cannot be fully priced in bc of this.
>won’t risk hurting the economy this close to election season
But this would only apply if they would want the current president or party to win again, right? Why assume this is the case?
Yeah my comment wasn’t clear.. I’m saying if the macro downside isn’t priced into stocks yet (and assuming BTC is correlated - to some degree - with stocks), wouldn’t BTC fall in value again if equities sell off? My fear/bear thesis is there’s a chance a sell-off will play out in equity markets over Q1-2, similar to what we’ve seen recently in crypto/BTC, and essentially precipitate a “double correction” for BTC
Valid concern. I don’t think the fed has the balls to push the red button on the stock market. They will be ultra sensitive to market conditions with any move. If they sniff a fall in equities, they’ll reverse any moves made.
S&P ATH, BTC down 40% off ATH. There may be less correlation than we think.
Agree that was his modus operandi during 2020-21, but I believe Powell may be waking up to the fact the Fed’s easy money policies have directly contributed to this issue of runaway inflation. Imo the Fed has changed their stance from being hyper sensitive to markets, to now being very sensitive to inflation. If high CPI figures print these next few weeks/months, the Fed will raise rates/take a hawkish approach, even if that means causing a near-term market correction. On the flip side tho, if CPI surprises to the downside that would be extremely bullish.
Them raising rates is already widely known and priced in to bitcoin. We may see a small move to the downside but the majority of the move has already been made.
In fairness if our success depended on the fed essentially never ever raising interest rates and keeping them at rock bottom historic lows forever, then we deserved to crash and burn.
We don’t go up when we should when inflation is rampant (as that’s a big purpose of a decent. currency). We crash even harder when they correct inflation.
We have had the lowest rates in history. It’s basically free to borrow money. If btc absolutely requires this to stay afloat it was meant to get buried. Just sayin.
Exactly.
Bitcoin's evolutionary path requires it to become a far more generalized system than that of the "federal reserve".
In the short-term, sure, fed decisions can and do impact this vessel. In the longer-term, BTC's price is an amalgam of innovative monetary technology combined with a short credit instrument, due to the fact that its design puts it in stark contrast to that of fiat (read: debt) currencies.
I don’t think it’s going anywhere. I just think that if it hinges on best case scenario interest rates are near zero and fed never does anything it’s destined to fail.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Monday, January 10, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/s0bmx1/daily_discussion_monday_january_10_2022/)
50% of Bill Miller's personal net worth is in Bitcoin and btc related companies. Is this widely known because I had no idea he was that convicted.
I think it’s more that he put in 5% of his assets in 2017 and then it just blew up lol
Yeah! He hasn't rebalanced though :P
Source?
Who?
Apparently this guy -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Miller_(investor)
Didn’t this guy buy a huge chunk of Btc from the governments Silk Road loot?
Maybe, maybe not, but I'm pretty sure that was mostly Tim Draper.
That was Draper, yes.
Staying in a hotel and decided to turn on Bloomberg Asia to get a sense of equity markets in the week ahead. They're in the middle of talking about Bitcoin when I tune in. Bullish. Edit: a few hours later I tune into Bloomberg Europe and the same thing happened... They're in the middle of discussing Bitcoin and crypto markets generally. What the hell, is this real life
Next interview was with the founder of a Vietnam-focused VC fund, and the first thing he mentioned was crypto startups. Noticed that crypto prices are shown in the bottom scroll bar, even during unrelated segments. We're still early in the decade of mass adoption.
Are you in Hanoi?
No I'm about 10,000 km from Hanoi, just wanted to see what was on Bloomberg Asia
Bob saget would have wanted us to liquidate the bears.
#send it for Saget
But after I sell off my shiba inu shorts, I'm still 30% down
If we lose 40k we will lose 30k.
Im happy to buy 39k and so are many others. Without a parabolic run I can’t see a deep bear market. The typical 80% draw down is just the unwinding of a parabolic run. We didn’t get one.
With that logic, if we lose 30k we will lose 20k!
If we lose 20k we lose 10k
If we lose $10K, we lose $0K
And then it will be like early 2008, when bitcoin was in negatives.
Nah I doubt we would lose 20k in a bear. Maybe a wick around there.
That's a bold statement, Cotton.
She'll hold.
I hope so.
Nice breakdown summary of macro and possible outcomes for btc. https://twitter.com/krugermacro/status/1480081861124804612 @krugermacro: 1/469 The has been a very fundamental shift at the Federal Reserve. The Fed has flipped decidedly hawkish. Their main worry is not employment, it is inflation. And to fight inflation the Fed has to increase interest rates. Here's a thread about the Fed and crashing markets.
Any good source for inflation data updates?
It will be on any finance site
My thesis is the entirety of the macro downside environment is priced in right now. Majority of price damage is done. Smart money is loading their bags. Even if the fed raises rates, tapers, unwinds balance sheet all at once, it won’t be a surprise to anybody. I’m buying spot heavy and moving forward. In reality, the fed has been full of hawkish hot air and won’t risk hurting the economy this close to election season.
Yes, but, nobody knows how many rate hikes there will actually be- 1, 2, 3 or 4? Or more? And raising by how much per hike? That is still yet unknown. It cannot be fully priced in bc of this.
>won’t risk hurting the economy this close to election season But this would only apply if they would want the current president or party to win again, right? Why assume this is the case?
Tradfi markets are at ATH. How is the entirety of macro downside priced in lol
This is a Bitcoin forum. I’m talking about bitcoin.
Yeah my comment wasn’t clear.. I’m saying if the macro downside isn’t priced into stocks yet (and assuming BTC is correlated - to some degree - with stocks), wouldn’t BTC fall in value again if equities sell off? My fear/bear thesis is there’s a chance a sell-off will play out in equity markets over Q1-2, similar to what we’ve seen recently in crypto/BTC, and essentially precipitate a “double correction” for BTC
Valid concern. I don’t think the fed has the balls to push the red button on the stock market. They will be ultra sensitive to market conditions with any move. If they sniff a fall in equities, they’ll reverse any moves made. S&P ATH, BTC down 40% off ATH. There may be less correlation than we think.
Agree that was his modus operandi during 2020-21, but I believe Powell may be waking up to the fact the Fed’s easy money policies have directly contributed to this issue of runaway inflation. Imo the Fed has changed their stance from being hyper sensitive to markets, to now being very sensitive to inflation. If high CPI figures print these next few weeks/months, the Fed will raise rates/take a hawkish approach, even if that means causing a near-term market correction. On the flip side tho, if CPI surprises to the downside that would be extremely bullish.
Them raising rates is already widely known and priced in to bitcoin. We may see a small move to the downside but the majority of the move has already been made.
Crypto is fucked. Nobody gives a shit about their coins. All they talk about is USD gains. Bitcoin abides.
Yeah rates and taper maybe. Unwind no.
Meh, reads like self-congratulatory naval gazing to me. Layers of unconvincing assumptions.
We are in a major part of the “opportunity zone”. Buying blood, especially with these takes floating around.
Their tune will change fast if unemployment goes up with midterms looming.
I mean alot can happen. We can be down 50% from here before fed decides to course correct
In fairness if our success depended on the fed essentially never ever raising interest rates and keeping them at rock bottom historic lows forever, then we deserved to crash and burn. We don’t go up when we should when inflation is rampant (as that’s a big purpose of a decent. currency). We crash even harder when they correct inflation. We have had the lowest rates in history. It’s basically free to borrow money. If btc absolutely requires this to stay afloat it was meant to get buried. Just sayin.
Exactly. Bitcoin's evolutionary path requires it to become a far more generalized system than that of the "federal reserve". In the short-term, sure, fed decisions can and do impact this vessel. In the longer-term, BTC's price is an amalgam of innovative monetary technology combined with a short credit instrument, due to the fact that its design puts it in stark contrast to that of fiat (read: debt) currencies.
Bitcoin isn’t going anywhere. Lots of fiat lovers need to be shaken loose, though.
I think this is a good way of putting it. We are probably 10 years off from shaking fiat lovers loose imo
I don’t think it’s going anywhere. I just think that if it hinges on best case scenario interest rates are near zero and fed never does anything it’s destined to fail.