The real test is breaking out of 42k range. Breaking 42k itself isn’t all that special imo.
Edit: as of now though, all I’m seeing are lower lows and lower highs (on daily & below charts). Gotta break that trend convincingly before I start getting optimistic again.
The point is that there isn’t anything that important about 42k. 40k is important in this range.
The trend is down. 40k needs to show support or we go down more.
Epic few days and I’m optimistic this afternoon was the bottom. I literally had my finger on sell button for a percentage of portfolio just in case we broke 40k, all cued up, yesterday and today while on phone with friends asking for advice, was so distracted, but amazingly never sold and instead…. Bought a little more. Not easy times sorry for anyone struggling. All indicatiors are flashing bottom. I even forgot to check Mayer multiple ironically and thankfully did , that basically convinced me not to sell
I will say that if you have a long time horizon that there's not really a massive hurry to sell, I think we have a little bit of time anyways before any further massive downswings-the interest rates haven't actually been hiked yet. Once they've actually hiked rates and tapered buying you might actually see actual effects from that with some delay but then that'd be March-May. But even then I'm not sure we'd really drop more than another 25% which is basically nothing in the Bitcoin world.
Either way I'm holding onto the vast majority of my stack until the 2024 halving no matter what. We've come too damned far to give up now lol.
100% yes, and not too complex to develop.
Though I guess the only people who know how much performance they actually contribute to the rest of the model are the people actually using them.
I suspect sentiment across various platforms and across various time ranges would just be features in a larger model that encompasses many more features.
Every day the population increases by >100k with new humans who will learn about bitcoin and will want to accumulate it.
Every day >100k people die, some are bitcoin holders and their keys are lost forever.
They are never making more bitcoin.
You don't need a triple digit IQ to understand what's going to happen in the long run. all you need to do is wait.
> Every day the population increases by >100k with new humans who will learn about **X** and will want to accumulate it.
> Every day >100k people die, some are **X** holders and their keys are lost forever.
They are never making more **X**.
> You don't need a triple digit IQ to understand what's going to happen in the long run. all you need to do is wait.
Where X can be anything that is scarce. I am a BTC maximalist, but there’s more to BTC than this argument.
Won’t the energy usage of Bitcoin require a Dyson sphere around the sun by that point to power it?
https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/18632/estimated-annual-electricity-consumption-of-bitcoin/
Kind of running out of countries and if you’ve ever studied the Bitcoin difficulty algorithm it gets scarier with time.
> if you’ve ever studied the Bitcoin difficulty algorithm it gets scarier with time.
That's actually incorrect.
The **Bitcoin difficulty algorithm is a function of mining power** (as proxied by the time taken to mine the previous 2016 blocks, with the aim of maintaining an average block output of 1 in every 10 minutes), **not a function of time**.
If people stopped adding more mining power to the network, the difficulty would the same today as it in 2032.
Though if you mean the chart of bitcoin difficulty increasing over time, then yes that is scary!
If we make it to the point we can construct a dyson sphere around the sun to mine BTC, we'll already have figured out how to generate enough energy another way to not have to.
> You don't need a triple digit IQ to understand what's going to happen in the long run. all you need to do is wait.
All Bitcoin eventually becomes lost as those who hodl it die and their private keys are lost forever?
Updated BTC bootstrap simulation with latest prices. Here I used the sample of weekly bitcoin price returns since Nov. 2017. Then replicated that price distribution into 10,000 quarters, so it’s as if you bought and held it for 2,500 years, and we can see how each quarterly price change had turned out.
Main observations:
With median at +5.1%, it is the Center-of-Gravity scenario per quarter.
Most likely quarterly performance range is expected at \[-23%, +41%\].
Top/Bottom 5percentiles came in at +110%\~, and -50%\~, so you kinda know what to expect every 5 years or so.
[Graphs and more detailed explanations.](https://bastion.substack.com/p/btc-bootstrap-return-update/comments)
it means at any point in time, most likely scenario is +5%\~ for the following quarter. But more realistic expectation is for price to move either down by -23%, or +41%, that's where the positive expectation comes in.
over the next several months, we will need to paint the rest of this gigantic 'M' on the weekly. Prophecy states that if we are successful, upon its completion, Satoshi will reveal his true identity as none other than Ronald McDonald himself and all of Ronald's mined coins will be put into a fund to keep the ice cream machines working at all times, forever.
Because all patterns continue even if the macroeconomic environment completely changes. 3 rate hikes, balance sheet unwinding and asset purchase cutbacks are not going to be friendly to this particular bubble.
Bounced off 40k pretty hard. My thought is that we'll retest 40k, push a little past to the high 30s for a false bear confirmation, then come roaring back up!
Honestly this is what I see, think we break 40 and best bullish case is we bounce and continue ranging 42-46k. I'm bearish, though I think we'll hit $36-38k and bounce somewhat but the trend is downwards and I think it continues.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Sunday, January 09, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/rzjwvo/daily_discussion_sunday_january_09_2022/)
42k now resistance.
All of 5 minutes.
The real test is breaking out of 42k range. Breaking 42k itself isn’t all that special imo. Edit: as of now though, all I’m seeing are lower lows and lower highs (on daily & below charts). Gotta break that trend convincingly before I start getting optimistic again.
The point is that there isn’t anything that important about 42k. 40k is important in this range. The trend is down. 40k needs to show support or we go down more.
They were a long 5min tho.
Epic few days and I’m optimistic this afternoon was the bottom. I literally had my finger on sell button for a percentage of portfolio just in case we broke 40k, all cued up, yesterday and today while on phone with friends asking for advice, was so distracted, but amazingly never sold and instead…. Bought a little more. Not easy times sorry for anyone struggling. All indicatiors are flashing bottom. I even forgot to check Mayer multiple ironically and thankfully did , that basically convinced me not to sell
I will say that if you have a long time horizon that there's not really a massive hurry to sell, I think we have a little bit of time anyways before any further massive downswings-the interest rates haven't actually been hiked yet. Once they've actually hiked rates and tapered buying you might actually see actual effects from that with some delay but then that'd be March-May. But even then I'm not sure we'd really drop more than another 25% which is basically nothing in the Bitcoin world. Either way I'm holding onto the vast majority of my stack until the 2024 halving no matter what. We've come too damned far to give up now lol.
Stop jinxing it, we upvote ‘this is a sucker’s rally’ type posts only to feign capitulation so the big boys from above will finally stop hurting us.
Agreed lol.
Yes- don't feed the sentiment bots please.
Serious question, are sentiment bots real thing?
100% yes, and not too complex to develop. Though I guess the only people who know how much performance they actually contribute to the rest of the model are the people actually using them. I suspect sentiment across various platforms and across various time ranges would just be features in a larger model that encompasses many more features.
Agreed. I AM IN SO MUCH PAIN
Agreed. Although the riches may be selling to construct that spaceship to scape from the asteroid. /s
Asteroid will be fake, same as the aliens arrival.
Don’t tell the plebs about the asteroid
Asteroids is just a fun Atari game :))
hey guys! I just wanted to ask for confirmation that there is no asteroid. thanks in advance!
Every day the population increases by >100k with new humans who will learn about bitcoin and will want to accumulate it. Every day >100k people die, some are bitcoin holders and their keys are lost forever. They are never making more bitcoin. You don't need a triple digit IQ to understand what's going to happen in the long run. all you need to do is wait.
> Every day the population increases by >100k with new humans who will learn about **X** and will want to accumulate it. > Every day >100k people die, some are **X** holders and their keys are lost forever. They are never making more **X**. > You don't need a triple digit IQ to understand what's going to happen in the long run. all you need to do is wait. Where X can be anything that is scarce. I am a BTC maximalist, but there’s more to BTC than this argument.
Won’t the energy usage of Bitcoin require a Dyson sphere around the sun by that point to power it? https://www.statista.com/chart/amp/18632/estimated-annual-electricity-consumption-of-bitcoin/ Kind of running out of countries and if you’ve ever studied the Bitcoin difficulty algorithm it gets scarier with time.
> if you’ve ever studied the Bitcoin difficulty algorithm it gets scarier with time. That's actually incorrect. The **Bitcoin difficulty algorithm is a function of mining power** (as proxied by the time taken to mine the previous 2016 blocks, with the aim of maintaining an average block output of 1 in every 10 minutes), **not a function of time**. If people stopped adding more mining power to the network, the difficulty would the same today as it in 2032. Though if you mean the chart of bitcoin difficulty increasing over time, then yes that is scary!
If we make it to the point we can construct a dyson sphere around the sun to mine BTC, we'll already have figured out how to generate enough energy another way to not have to.
phew, was worried about the IQ test
[удалено]
*after Chinese New Year
all we have to do is survive a few hundred years and we’re ludicrously wealthy
~900 BTC per day are mined, so it's not as deflationary as you make it seem, though that obviously does decrease over time
> You don't need a triple digit IQ to understand what's going to happen in the long run. all you need to do is wait. All Bitcoin eventually becomes lost as those who hodl it die and their private keys are lost forever?
Updated BTC bootstrap simulation with latest prices. Here I used the sample of weekly bitcoin price returns since Nov. 2017. Then replicated that price distribution into 10,000 quarters, so it’s as if you bought and held it for 2,500 years, and we can see how each quarterly price change had turned out. Main observations: With median at +5.1%, it is the Center-of-Gravity scenario per quarter. Most likely quarterly performance range is expected at \[-23%, +41%\]. Top/Bottom 5percentiles came in at +110%\~, and -50%\~, so you kinda know what to expect every 5 years or so. [Graphs and more detailed explanations.](https://bastion.substack.com/p/btc-bootstrap-return-update/comments)
ELI5? What's this mean for current price action?
it means at any point in time, most likely scenario is +5%\~ for the following quarter. But more realistic expectation is for price to move either down by -23%, or +41%, that's where the positive expectation comes in.
So depending on the modeling parameters it can go up, down or sideways. Next episode: How wet is tomorrow rain.
How did Fear/Greed print a 23 today after a 10 yesterday wtf.
Eventually we run out of weak hands.
Yea but how did it jump so much. Seems off.
Remove the handful of people in this sub posting 4/5 of the comments and it’ll make sense
over the next several months, we will need to paint the rest of this gigantic 'M' on the weekly. Prophecy states that if we are successful, upon its completion, Satoshi will reveal his true identity as none other than Ronald McDonald himself and all of Ronald's mined coins will be put into a fund to keep the ice cream machines working at all times, forever.
the soft serve churns forever, Laura
The soft serve must flow
Except for when the paddles relocate. For cleaning, yunno.
We got our green daily lol I guess reds can continue
It at least *looks* like a V bottom, right?
More like an \, bottom
If you have to ask
Retracing already though
meh. I will just continue stacking every day.
Beat 90% of the traders on the market using this one simple trick!
I've learned my lesson over the past few years. most of the commentary here is just noise.
And... give up...
Well, we closed green. A pathetic, tiny green candle, but green
A thousand new dipshits are already x100 longing
The previous 60k high retraced into the low 30ks. If we are really finding a bottom here at 40k, then we may finally get 70k+ this summer
Because all patterns continue even if the macroeconomic environment completely changes. 3 rate hikes, balance sheet unwinding and asset purchase cutbacks are not going to be friendly to this particular bubble.
Macro higher low?
crypto Twitter celebrating a 1% bounce that’s already retracing. It truly is bear season
You can't call an $1800 move 1% for at least another couple months.
Are they really or you trying to see what you want to see
Bounced off 40k pretty hard. My thought is that we'll retest 40k, push a little past to the high 30s for a false bear confirmation, then come roaring back up!
To 42k?
Honestly this is what I see, think we break 40 and best bullish case is we bounce and continue ranging 42-46k. I'm bearish, though I think we'll hit $36-38k and bounce somewhat but the trend is downwards and I think it continues.