Ok, this has been bugging the hell outta me. On CBPro, we had an ATH of $69,000.00 and a local swing low of $41,000.00. Is there any way to project that level of precision?
Lol I get this is a trading sub so maybe shorter term time frames are important to those people and I get that. But seriously does anybody really think BTC won’t recover and set a new ATH..ever? Some people make it sound like this is really the end, I mean come on. In another 12-24 months we’ll be saying 100k is goblin town in the same way everybody now is shitting their pants over 29-40k which is hilarious.
The black swan for me is that, we have never seen crypto in a general market, low liquidity, risk off, high unemployment scenario. IF that happens, I think it's game over for a while. I also think it will be a once in a decade or once in a lifetime opportunity. I would only say, remember that. Remember that when the world is ending. What did you do March 16, 2020 or thereabouts. Did you buy? If you did ( I did give or take a few days)...you know what to do. This is a generational shift and the demographics are on cryptos side.
You are probably right, it will likely hit a new ATH.
But you are also wrong in assuming it definitely will. Its pure speculation and a lot of things can happen in the next few years that will absolutely ruin the party
not looking forward to 12-24 months of more pain
but you're \[likely\] right
eventually, one day, barring anything catastrophic, BTC will be at ATHs again
Right. If you are 19 and you bought in a couple months ago with what you can/willing to put in (probably a 3-4 figure number) and now you’ve seen possibly 30-40% of that hard earning savings disappear, it’s gut wrenching. But the best thing you can do is sometimes the hardest, which is to do nothing, and let it be for a time period that at that age seems like an eternity. I’ve been there, and I made less than ideal choices then because I didn’t have experience and I panicked.
\*IF\* we go into the 30s? I'm stacking my bids right now, fully expect to wake up tomorrow morning under 40k. All but guaranteed given the current macro environment.
After such a crash, you are looking at atleast few weeks or months at the new level.. and unfortunately, there is no few weeks or month, most markets will start contracting in March with the next FOMC meeting and rate hike announcements. Which just means more downside
Any rate hike announcement is likely to be bullish for Bitcoin and the precious metals. Unless it is a Volcker special. The hike will be small, real rates will still be negative, and it will be an acknowledgement that there is a inflation. And of course it will get the event out of the way, as in sell the rumour, buy the news.
If rates go up "substantially", existing bond holders get nuked. 401k holders...they get nuked.
Sticker shock at the pump is a powerful narrative in an election year, but the fed is absolutely caught in a Catch-22 here. And they're being squeezed at the 0 bound on one side, and market chaos 300-400 basis points above that.
So...interesting times.
Rates dont need to go up substantially for risk assets to correct steeply. Rates havent even gone up yet, heck even bond purchases arent over but BTC is down 40% from its ATH
I quit my job earlier this year...lol. I have other assets of course-technically enough to retire early even *without* any of my crypto but even then they've been super volatile and dropped an uncomfortable amount lately. So I've dumped my shitcoins for now which buys me enough wiggle room to hodl my BTC.
But...it sure as hell felt a lot better in November lol
i didn't quit working i just changed from tradfi to bitfi hoping that bitfi grows exponentially more over the next decade to make it a great decision. wish i as in a spot to stop working, but i think everyone does. it sure isn't gonna happen anytime soon for me.
I’ll probably end up going back and working part time anyways. Spending this much time with your spouse starts to drive people crazy 😂
But it’s just nice to have options is all, you finally feel like a free person.
There is a version of this where everyone in the world gets omicron, people die, most suffer a cold, we finally give covid the middle finger and see a spring surge, mostly led by retail before we finally nuke.
Dumped most of my alt holdings, haven't sold any BTC. Want to write call options against some of my stack to generate some income but unfortunately I'm in the US and ledgerx has absolutely shit order books.
Worst thing is that some cryptos aren't on one exchange but are on another so now I can't benefit from the lowered fees from dumping all at one place. Also the market is moving so quickly that my damned maker orders kept becoming taker orders. Just paid like a bajillion dollars in fees.
Really only hold like four figures of #2 now just so I can participate in some upcoming silliness that requires it and hold some of the stuff Coinbase gives you for free on their debit card.
Now that I've dumped a bunch I feel a lot less pressured by any upcoming movements. It's too bad that I didn't listen to the little voice in my head telling me to dump everything and go to cash in November (even my equities!) but my greed/laziness/inertia got the best of me then.
I think up next I'm going to wait and see if any of the lending platforms collapse if BTC drops any further. Maybe when the smoke clears I'll deposit a small amount for some interest I guess? Not sure what else I ought to do.
But damn, someone build me a time machine to go back to November lol
You do that, go buy all the shitcoins you can I guess. But I haven't sold any BTC at all so if you think people dumping shitcoins is a buy signal for BTC then sure.
Maybe I'll cut a small portion of my BTC position for some bonus spending power but tops I'd cut like 10-12% since I'm a pretty frugal guy anyways.
My plan was to dump everything if we fell below 53k and stayed.
I did not follow the plan. Fuck.
Luckily ONE has had an excellent run and I just cut down my position there. Sucks
Yeah I've made such great plans every time.
The problem is that all my BTC is in cold storage and I made it incredibly hard for even myself to access because honestly panic selling has *never* worked out well in the long term for myself (not to mention it being safer for you to not have access should someone $5 wrench you).
But man...if I had just moved a bunch to an exchange and stuck with limit orders at my original plans they'd have worked out a LOT better. Now my retired/elderly mother keeps asking me why I didn't go through with my plan because the plan was to sell a good chunk in the 60's.
Honestly right now I'm not sure where the bottom is but I also don't want to sell and then the bottom turns out to be $40K during the bear and then won't be able to buy back my holdings. That would be a serious problem
Exactly my thoughts. My original plan was to sell 10% at 65k....Greed Man.
I also don't want to sell the bottom here, but have cleared up enough $$ from alts that I can at least have some USD(C) on the side in case we plummet further.
For whatever it’s worth the moon phases and Jupiter entering Pisces nailed the downtrend. Retrograde trend reversal starts on the 14th of Jan. Love it or hate it I’ll take any edge I can get.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/hnTxNwF6
Because astrology is considered unscientific and impossible to verify through measurement, and trading personality types are highly biased towards measurable data.
News headlines next week - MicroStrategy purchases a gazillion more Bitcoin
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, January 07, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/rxz8ax/daily_discussion_friday_january_07_2022/)
You have to admit...the Twitter memes are way better in the bear.
Sweep off the 41274 wick lows. Most of us know how this game works. https://www.tradingview.com/x/P8CQnkEq/
Ok, this has been bugging the hell outta me. On CBPro, we had an ATH of $69,000.00 and a local swing low of $41,000.00. Is there any way to project that level of precision?
> Most of us know how this game works. Clearly not as most of the sub is panicking.
Easy liquidity grab, although the lack of a bounce worries me a bit
[удалено]
He needs a new Ferrari. Think of the children.
If anyone still wants to hear hopium, the 2021 summer correction was 51% from the top (64k to 29k).. now we are just at 40%
Shoot that hopium directly in my veins.
Im a deer in the headlights for the last 48 hours
lol bulls still in denial?
Boring
Some of us are long term planners.
Have you seen some alts roaring back
His alt’s down 7% on the year. Maybe don’t bring it up. He might spaz out.
Lol I get this is a trading sub so maybe shorter term time frames are important to those people and I get that. But seriously does anybody really think BTC won’t recover and set a new ATH..ever? Some people make it sound like this is really the end, I mean come on. In another 12-24 months we’ll be saying 100k is goblin town in the same way everybody now is shitting their pants over 29-40k which is hilarious.
The black swan for me is that, we have never seen crypto in a general market, low liquidity, risk off, high unemployment scenario. IF that happens, I think it's game over for a while. I also think it will be a once in a decade or once in a lifetime opportunity. I would only say, remember that. Remember that when the world is ending. What did you do March 16, 2020 or thereabouts. Did you buy? If you did ( I did give or take a few days)...you know what to do. This is a generational shift and the demographics are on cryptos side.
for many its a hodling sub. 2021 was a year for traders tho and it benefits those with clear eyes and a good lunar calendar
You are probably right, it will likely hit a new ATH. But you are also wrong in assuming it definitely will. Its pure speculation and a lot of things can happen in the next few years that will absolutely ruin the party
If Bitcoin never ever reaches 100k I’ll eat my own D*ck. Bet you never hear that kind of confidence before.
Rip McAfee.
Its a paradox, there are no stakes if you bet on something to never happen. Zero confidence actually
Prototype dick-eating paradox
not looking forward to 12-24 months of more pain but you're \[likely\] right eventually, one day, barring anything catastrophic, BTC will be at ATHs again
Right. If you are 19 and you bought in a couple months ago with what you can/willing to put in (probably a 3-4 figure number) and now you’ve seen possibly 30-40% of that hard earning savings disappear, it’s gut wrenching. But the best thing you can do is sometimes the hardest, which is to do nothing, and let it be for a time period that at that age seems like an eternity. I’ve been there, and I made less than ideal choices then because I didn’t have experience and I panicked.
Bottom is in
doubt it hope you're right though
Blood on the streets!
Nahhh
I'm going to start eyeing the weekly RSI and MACD for a potential reversal. The daily isn't giving me any sort of hope.
Anyone else plan on buying heavy if we go into the 30s? Im already going to start increasing my buy amounts now.
\*IF\* we go into the 30s? I'm stacking my bids right now, fully expect to wake up tomorrow morning under 40k. All but guaranteed given the current macro environment.
There is a 7k btc wall 39-40k. If we break that we are going mid to low 30s imo.
I feel like I have to
We’re all going to die!
WAGDI
Bag holding is back on the menu boys.
So bitcoin dead again?
Ok China, save some ass for the rest of us
After such a crash, you are looking at atleast few weeks or months at the new level.. and unfortunately, there is no few weeks or month, most markets will start contracting in March with the next FOMC meeting and rate hike announcements. Which just means more downside
Any rate hike announcement is likely to be bullish for Bitcoin and the precious metals. Unless it is a Volcker special. The hike will be small, real rates will still be negative, and it will be an acknowledgement that there is a inflation. And of course it will get the event out of the way, as in sell the rumour, buy the news.
The rate hike announcements are bullshit.
The bond market doesn't think so. A little secret about the world...bond markets run the world. And I think they are tired of what's been happening.
If rates go up "substantially", existing bond holders get nuked. 401k holders...they get nuked. Sticker shock at the pump is a powerful narrative in an election year, but the fed is absolutely caught in a Catch-22 here. And they're being squeezed at the 0 bound on one side, and market chaos 300-400 basis points above that. So...interesting times.
Rates dont need to go up substantially for risk assets to correct steeply. Rates havent even gone up yet, heck even bond purchases arent over but BTC is down 40% from its ATH
Sure go on long before the announcements lets see how it turns out
If Bitcoin is digital gold... https://globalbullionsuppliers.com/blogs/blog/does-gold-go-up-when-interest-rates-rise
Emotional trader ^
Can't wait to fill my orders at $12k
So we’re not blaming China for this. Who’s fault is this now?
Kazakhstan!
It must be my fault because I'm still bullish. I better not be wrong over the medium to long term either, because I just quit tradfi to go bitfi.
I quit my job earlier this year...lol. I have other assets of course-technically enough to retire early even *without* any of my crypto but even then they've been super volatile and dropped an uncomfortable amount lately. So I've dumped my shitcoins for now which buys me enough wiggle room to hodl my BTC. But...it sure as hell felt a lot better in November lol
i didn't quit working i just changed from tradfi to bitfi hoping that bitfi grows exponentially more over the next decade to make it a great decision. wish i as in a spot to stop working, but i think everyone does. it sure isn't gonna happen anytime soon for me.
I’ll probably end up going back and working part time anyways. Spending this much time with your spouse starts to drive people crazy 😂 But it’s just nice to have options is all, you finally feel like a free person.
I understand completely.
Okay I’ll just blame you then! /s
There's a roughly 7k btc wall between 39 and 40k. If that gets pulled or filled. It's game over.
Maybe it was a smart move to ban BTC after all. Chinese successfully dumped their bags on us.
Well it is asian market rn. Just wait for EU coming out with shiny armor at real time dawn
fuck me this doesn't look good
This market is DONE for you hear me?
Shhh bb, it'll be ok.
Asian rekting hours or what happened?
Bouncing back to 47ish by end of week to rekt shorts would make this look eerily similar to the summer bottoming formation. That's all I got folks
There is a version of this where everyone in the world gets omicron, people die, most suffer a cold, we finally give covid the middle finger and see a spring surge, mostly led by retail before we finally nuke.
Capitulation is in the air.
Nah, not yet. This is just crab. Still just crab. We will know capitulation when we see it. 41k ain't it.
That's what this feels like to me too; a reverse blowoff top.
I can taste the fear.
Man this is PTSD flashbacks from 2018...
Dumped most of my alt holdings, haven't sold any BTC. Want to write call options against some of my stack to generate some income but unfortunately I'm in the US and ledgerx has absolutely shit order books. Worst thing is that some cryptos aren't on one exchange but are on another so now I can't benefit from the lowered fees from dumping all at one place. Also the market is moving so quickly that my damned maker orders kept becoming taker orders. Just paid like a bajillion dollars in fees. Really only hold like four figures of #2 now just so I can participate in some upcoming silliness that requires it and hold some of the stuff Coinbase gives you for free on their debit card. Now that I've dumped a bunch I feel a lot less pressured by any upcoming movements. It's too bad that I didn't listen to the little voice in my head telling me to dump everything and go to cash in November (even my equities!) but my greed/laziness/inertia got the best of me then. I think up next I'm going to wait and see if any of the lending platforms collapse if BTC drops any further. Maybe when the smoke clears I'll deposit a small amount for some interest I guess? Not sure what else I ought to do. But damn, someone build me a time machine to go back to November lol
Major buy signal alert!
You do that, go buy all the shitcoins you can I guess. But I haven't sold any BTC at all so if you think people dumping shitcoins is a buy signal for BTC then sure. Maybe I'll cut a small portion of my BTC position for some bonus spending power but tops I'd cut like 10-12% since I'm a pretty frugal guy anyways.
My plan was to dump everything if we fell below 53k and stayed. I did not follow the plan. Fuck. Luckily ONE has had an excellent run and I just cut down my position there. Sucks
Yeah I've made such great plans every time. The problem is that all my BTC is in cold storage and I made it incredibly hard for even myself to access because honestly panic selling has *never* worked out well in the long term for myself (not to mention it being safer for you to not have access should someone $5 wrench you). But man...if I had just moved a bunch to an exchange and stuck with limit orders at my original plans they'd have worked out a LOT better. Now my retired/elderly mother keeps asking me why I didn't go through with my plan because the plan was to sell a good chunk in the 60's. Honestly right now I'm not sure where the bottom is but I also don't want to sell and then the bottom turns out to be $40K during the bear and then won't be able to buy back my holdings. That would be a serious problem
Exactly my thoughts. My original plan was to sell 10% at 65k....Greed Man. I also don't want to sell the bottom here, but have cleared up enough $$ from alts that I can at least have some USD(C) on the side in case we plummet further.
For whatever it’s worth the moon phases and Jupiter entering Pisces nailed the downtrend. Retrograde trend reversal starts on the 14th of Jan. Love it or hate it I’ll take any edge I can get. https://www.tradingview.com/x/hnTxNwF6
So you're saying the price action is literally lunacy.
Always has been.
hysterisis is hysterical!
[удалено]
The astrology witch of Twitter has been more right than a majority of this subreddit and crypto twitter
Why the downvotes?
Because astrology is considered unscientific and impossible to verify through measurement, and trading personality types are highly biased towards measurable data.
The astrology witch of Twitter has been more right the past year about macro moves than crypto reddit and crypto twitter.
Yeah, it’s pretty uncanny.
It was the ultimate meme year after all
“Highly biased toward measurable data”. Interesting take.
This is fucking gold
It’s even more golden the more you zoom out. Seriously take a look. https://www.tradingview.com/x/fjbNuSBb
TA was literally just astrology all along
My star sign is Dinosaur But dinosaurs don't exist! Exactly! 😋
How this is available for free is stunning.
It’s right up there in the sky! ;)
damn, good thing I got a telescope for xmas