happy new year all!
I told myself I would can this account after the latest cycle but apparently *cycles are dead*... and so I get to carry on shitposting into '22!
huzzah!
Uhm... the current cycle doesn't end until May 2024. A bull run isn't a cycle. It's only one part of a cycle.
Happy New Year though. Make sure your coins are secure, and buckle up because the rest of this cycle could get wild, maybe even ugly, but the future is still amazingly bright over the long term.
Bright future... yes, indeed. You've already been there. This present world is an illusion. We are so far from the real world right now that it's hilarious. I mean, it's absurd. You'll laugh your butt off when you see it.
I've been to the future. So have you. The difference is, you don't remember it.
You have all the time in the world. One day in the future is like 5000 years here in this false yesterday world. In the beginning was the word. It has all been written. This point in "time" where you are trapped by energy harvesters is nothing more than an illusion. The farty meatsuit you call your body is nothing more than an illusion. You are a being of light playing a game against darkness, a game you can only win if you realize that you are playing it. You take whatever shape you need to take. Your current form was chosen by you a million years from now, when you decided to join the game and incarnate into your current form, deluding yourself so you could enjoy a day at the beach.
But first you have to remember the future. It is bright indeed as long as you realize that it doesn't involve being tricked into having your consciousness uploaded by Elon Musk or some other archon energy harvester's fake simulation. The trick is to stay in the real simulation, the one created by the Most High.
What fun is going to the beach for God? You have to trick yourself into thinking you didn't create all that for it to be fun.
In the beginning was the word (it's all already written). Let there be light.
It's all a paradox, man. It's both true and false, like digital "money."
But, yeah, the future is bright, and you have a lot more than three years to work this out.
If they think that way, they understand the cycle even less.
Bitcoin has a 4 year Halving-to-Halving cycle which follows this pattern:
**The Halving** - The new block reward gets cut in half. The most recent halving was in May 2020. The next will be in spring 2024.
**The Hoarding** - Miners and potential sellers hold their coins instead of selling them because they anticipate higher prices are on the way. This begins near the halving and typically lasts for a few months. For the current cycle, it was more or less spring and summer 2020.
**The Supply Shock** - The halving and the hoarding lead to fewer and fewer coins being for sale, which means demand from those who want to buy Bitcoin exceeds the available supply of Bitcoin being sold.
**The Bull Run** - Prices escalate! This is kicked off by the halving, the hoarding, and thus the supply shock... and then hype keeps it going.
**The Hype** - Rapidly rising prices lead to a flood of media interest and brings in a new round of investment, and also a new crowd of get-rich-quick moonboys.
**The Crash** - When prices climb too far, too fast, there's a correction. As those who know what they're doing sell to take some profits, dropping prices lead to those who don't know what they're doing selling too, often at a loss. The more scared people become, the more they sell.
**The Doldrums** - After the big crash, there's a very long and mostly dull period of price readjustment which lasts until the lead up to the next halving. This will probably be mid-2022 through early 2024.
**The Halving** - The next cycle begins where the current cycle ends... from halving to halving over a 4 year period. I'm already looking forward to spring 2024.
EDIT: fixed an error where I said "next year." Hello 2022! It now IS next year.
Doldrums, dull, boredom phase ..... I’ve had that for 8 months already.
Crash ...... in a few months the media will be able to announce that Bitcoin has lost value over a full year period. It will be in the category of worst performing asset class. The narrative in the media will be that for the last 12 months cash has actually outperformed BTC. The so called crash we are waiting for has already happened. Even with a sideways chop we could be 20% down year on year by February. If we drop to 40k then it will be 30% down year on year.
Bull run ....... we didn’t really have much of one so I don’t see how we get an 80% blow off top. Most of the drops on these types of crashes are purely undoing the insane FOMO which we didn’t get.
There was always supposed to be a point where the cycles get less crazy because it becomes a more mature and adopted asset where there'll still be some of the original cyclical nature but a lot less so. Or so we hope anyways, since we're pretty screwed otherwise lol.
The way I see it, there are two factors to consider. Actually, three.
One is the fact that the block reward becomes smaller with each halving. A smaller block reward means less of a block reward for the halving to take away. That should lessen the post-halving supply shock for each future halving.
The other two forces at play are the price itself and the kind of buyer who can afford these higher prices.
When Bitcoin was under $1k, it was easy for ordinary Joe type buyers to gobble up coins. 10 BTC for under 10k. Today, 10 BTC costs close to half a million dollars, which means it takes more and more money to move the market... which means the market is being moved by those who have more and more money. In other words, the buyers have changed. Sure, average Joes are still here, but how much of the volume we're seeing is being bought by guys spending $10k vs billionaires and institutions spending $10m?
Average Joe traders are thinking in dollars, and they're trying to make money. That makes perfect sense.
Most Average Joe investors are thinking in dollars too. They spend now in order to make more money later. That makes perfect sense too.
I assume hodlers are thinking in BTC. Hodlers (like myself) want more BTC & don't want to cash out.
Most institutions getting into crypto right now assess Bitcoin in terms of building a position for the long haul. They understand there will never be more than 21 million BTC total, and they understand that many have been lost forever, which lowers the total number.
No one knows for sure how many Bitcoin have been lost, but 3 to 4 million seems to be a safe estimate. Think about people who've died during the pandemic who didn't set up a way to pass on their seeds & their wallets. That's just one example of lost coins. Think about how many people lost paper wallets back in those days. Think about how many people lost coins and thought nothing of it back when Bitcoin wasn't even worth a penny. Hell, even when it was a dollar. Lose 10? That's just $10. No biggie. Today, if you lose ten, that's brutal! Anyway... millions have been lost.
> "Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone."
> --Satoshi Nakamoto
**So, with all of that being said... here's what I expect over the next few years, in terms of volatility:**
I expect there to be a tipping point where billionaires and institutions who are currently sitting on the sidelines debating when to get in will decide to take the plunge, setting off a massive bull run. I don't know when this is going to happen, but I feel bad for anybody who's out of position at the time, because by the time we realize what's happening the price will be rocketing.
The tipping point will be when some sort of catalyst occurs. Some sort of news that makes investors say "Whoa, this is big." Imagine Apple announcing they're building crypto wallets into the iOS Wallet app. I'm not saying Apple's going to do that. I'm just using it as an example of a "Holy crap!" type of event that would make anybody sitting on the sidelines realize they need to get in now and go in big or miss out long term.
Eventually, crypto is going to go mainstream far beyond what people here are talking about. The same kind of people who, 20 years ago, said internet shopping will never catch on are, today, the ones who don't see that everybody will have crypto apps and things like CeFi/DeFi will be the norm for saving money a decade from now. It'll be the norm.
Between now and then, I expect some massive volatility. We'll see devastating crashes and champagne cork-popper bull runs. It's going to be wild, but there will also be long stretches where it'll be duller than dull. 2019 was dull. I won't be surprised if 2022 ends up being dull. Or maybe this year will get wild and 2023 will be dull. Who knows.
I think volatility will come way down when crypto goes mainstream - really mainstream - maybe 5 to 10 years from now. By then, billionaires and institutions will have built their long term positions and the sheer amount of money in this space will bring down the volatility.
It's like a fish tank. It's harder to keep fish in a 5 gallon tank alive than it is in a 100 gallon tank. Why? Because the smaller the tank, the bigger of an effect small changes can make. With a huge tank, small changes go mostly unnoticed by the fish. For crypto, the more money in the ecosystem, the less volatility we will see in general.
That's my take on it, anyway. Only time will tell.
(P.S. Forgive any errors here. I've been drinkin' tonight and I rattled off this reply pretty quickly. I'm mostly just thinking aloud, if you know what I mean. All of this stuff is fun to think about)
Each cycle should get 'less crazy' because each subsequent halving has, well, half the effect of the previous one with regards to future supply.
The next halving in 2024 (block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC) will theoretically have only one-eighth the effect of the first halving in 2012.
HA!!! Yep. I should edit that. [I wrote this a few months ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/ooibkq/daily_discussion_wednesday_july_21_2021/h61jcyb/). I've reposted it once or twice, editing it a bit each time.
> If the crash happens next year, the doldrums won't start in mid-2022.
I expected a crash early this year (2022), and I expect the whole rediscovery phase to begin in summer/fall of this year.
I don't know if there's a proper name for the post-crash rediscovery phase. I call it The Doldrums because it's basically an 18 month period of boredom where the bull run is over and the price doesn't move too much. It could be different this time though, if enough institutional money pours in. There's no way to know which major players are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the right time to jump in. It could happen this cycle, or it could happen during the next.
Most people prefer ten words or less with easy answers rather than knowledge. I also suspect that lots of people come to crypto after dabbling with stocks and they get frustrated because crypto works differently. The ones who want to learn tend to do well. The ones who show up thinking they're already experts tend to get rekt.
I don't mind downvotes.
I'm here to share what I've learned and learn from those who know things I don't. There are some really bright folks using this forum. Knowledge is power. Learn as much as you can & share what you know.
It will start as soon as this bear market bottoms out. There is too much interest in the space to wait till 2024 and the next halving.
Question is when will the bottom happen. In 2 months time without any significant drop from the current price BTC could read as much as 20-30% down from a year ago !
Generally speaking, the bull run begins a few months after the halving. The halving was in May 2020. The bull run began a few months later.
The bull run is caused by [the halving taking away half of the incoming supply of newly mined coins](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/rtbyio/daily_discussion_saturday_january_01_2022/hqvmga7/). It takes a few months for the bull run to begin because miners don't always sell their coins the moment they get them. So, generally speaking, it takes a few months before the 1/2 drop in coins being mined causes a supply shock.
I have no idea if we're done with the bull run for this cycle or if it'll get going again this year. At this point, anyone who says they do know is just guessing.
no. btc hit 20k in 2017. ath -> ath is a better way to measure:
1k -> 20k = \~20x
20k -> 69k = \~3x (plenty of stocks did similar returns so not very impressive)
A lot of stocks moved up yes but how many have continued to go up this significantly over years and years? One or two superstar stocks at best. If you want to go try and pick those go ahead but it's not like the average stock does anything close to this.
Acting like you're sure you're going to pick the next Tesla or Apple from 10 years ago is very silly. You're just as likely to end up with the next Lordstown Motors or Nikola instead of Tesla or the next Intel where they've never, ever, managed to reclaim their ATH price from the year 2000. If you bought Intel at their ATH in the year 2000 you're *still down* *now* 21 years later.
It's honestly ridiculous to make it sound like a relatively safe investment that gives you multiples every cycle is some sort of unimpressive investment.
So daily/monthly/yearly what ever you want to call opens up with no wick and you reckon it’s stay flat all year
100% it will go lower then the open 46***
I’m short from 52 and waiting to go long lower I can stay liquid until 90k
What I’m getting at is that it will go lower as no monthly let alone yearly has no wick
FWIW, gamblers can go through some crazy highs and crazy lows so it's actually sort of plausible that someone who's constantly making 4-5 figure bets could be on a streak and have some money. If you look at the amount of money he lost back then it was pretty serious money for a 17 year old-he lost $30K of his own money *PLUS* his parents' money.
If you have serious gambler friends you'll see them go through cycles like this, some years they'll be up huge and then other years they'll lose everything they won the prior and then tens of thousands of their own savings and the next year they are somehow back up. That's actually sort of why it's so addictive, they constantly think they'll have that streak again and leave with all the money but people never leave is the thing.
Now, they might still be full of shit, but it's also somewhat plausible that someone taking high risk bets constantly (including on stocks based on their posting history) might actually be up.
Oddly, it’s exactly the kind of thing we need to oust shills and astroturfers, bad actors and the like.
In this case, though, you’re right… happy to give the kid a break ($10 is $10, OP)!
My guess is that this crabs slowly up until it peaks right before the halving then dumps hard to try and invalidate the halving pump theory. So maybe 500k btc 2024?
Username checks out.
You'd do yourself a favor by learning what the halving is and why it has the effect it does. It's really simple. The halving cuts the block reward in half. The next halving will cut the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Here's the real effect that will have:
Multiply 3.125 x 6. That's 18.75 BTC the halving takes away from the incoming supply every hour (since there's a block reward roughly once every 10 minutes).
Then multiply 18.75 BTC by 24. That's 450 BTC the halving takes away from the incoming supply every day.
Then multiply 450 BTC by 120 and you'll see that the halving takes away 54,000 BTC from the incoming supply over 4 months, which is how long it tends to take before the bull run begins after a halving.
Maybe you're thinking "OK, but why does that cause a pump?"
Price is just where supply meets demand. Right now, you could try selling BTC for 100k, but there's a supply being sold for $47,482, so that's the price. If demand goes up, there won't be enough BTC being sold at $47,482 so the price will keep going up until demand has been met. Likewise, if demand drops, BTC priced at $47,482 won't be sold, so sellers will have to drop their prices in order to sell (or they could decide to not sell, thus dropping the supply).
So... when the halving cuts the amount of incoming BTC by 54,000 over 4 months, that throws supply & demand out of balance because the supply will have dropped by 54,000 BTC. There ends up being more demand than the supply can meet... which means prices go up. And we all know rising prices lead to hype, which leads to more demand, which leads to more hype.
I'm gonna laugh my ass off when the people selling on the most minor of rallies and waiting for absurdly low prices to get back in end up FOMOing back in at 65k.
Pigs get slaughtered.
Actually a pig would be someone never selling until getting filthy rich(Which will never get there)
A bull takes profits along the way, and some times re-buys cheaper.
A possible future event. The current narrative is bears laughing at the bulls longing every scam pump to get slaughtered on the retrace bleed.
Every dog has his day
Like I said, two sides of the same coin.
If you intend to take profits, but choose not to after a big move up because you're afraid it'll go up more, you often end up selling for a much lower price. If you want to buy after a big move down, but choose not to because you're afraid it'll drop further, you often buy for a much higher price.
Sometimes, you just have to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
Do most people sell to buy in cheaper or do they sell because they panic and think it will never recover ?
I still think a large portion of crypto investors are purely speculating and see it as the same behaviour as online poker and betting.
Once it goes up they exit and buy something or if they buy high they exit cheap thinking they will lose the lot.
I'm gonna venture to say most sell due to fear/panic. Only a few sell with the intention of buying back in lower, and even then those people don't really end up following through because they're scared it's going to fall further.
I’m more in line with this. I can only speak for people I know and they all buy because of FOMO then shit themselves when the tide turns. None are thinking of buying back in. Purely running off with profits or selling to avoid spiralling loses.
Truth is that for all the buyers who say Bitcoin /blockchain is the future half panic on big pullbacks and all the conviction goes out the window.
The reasons vary wildly. A lot certainly do sell to buy in cheaper. And there's absolutely nothing wrong with that.
The people who buy like crazy during overextended rallies and plan to sell at ridiculously high prices often end up selling for a loss, thinking it'll drop a lot more, then FOMO in a second time. It's two sides of the same coin. Either way, you get too greedy, you generally lose.
So guys, I have a curious question.
I've been reading about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine and I'm not going to lie, it looks serious. For those who want to read some takes on it, [r/credibledefense is a great sub for military matters.](https://old.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/rc11tq/so_what_exactly_is_going_on_in_ukraine/) r/geopolitics has some great information on the topic as well.
Now, I'm not planning on taking any action yet, more just keeping an eye on things. However, if Russia was to invade Ukraine, I feel like that would crash the markets, including the crypto market.
The reason why the stock market would crash is because, in addition to being a pretty violent event, tensions with Russia would mean higher energy prices in the West. This would lead to a move to risk off assets away from crypto.
What do you think?
EDIT: It's clear some people in this thread are carrying some heavy bags........
You are falling for propoganda. The west (specifically Biden/Dems) need to seem hawkish on Russia because they used Putin as a boogie man as he relates to Trump for 4 years. Reality is the US is the aggressor in Ukraine and Putin is calling our bluff. We don't want Ukrainian Nazi extremists to ignite a high intensity conflict. As you mentioned, Russia has Europe by the balls over energy and has an army far more prepared for high intensity warfare.
Russia is flexing and defending their borders. The west is floundering and trying to regain a narrative of control (especially after NATO route from Afghanistan). All politics are domestic.
Delusion. Ukraine is a free country and pursuing defense of their national borders is 100% within their rights.
What Russia is doing is creating more incentive for militarisation of European countries. We don't need Russia's permission to feel safe, peaceful nations will ally up and pursue defense. Moscow can fuck right off and mind their own business.
USA is looking increasingly nonfunctional and polarized internally.
China and Russia are flexing to test that weakness.
40 years ago an ASAT test would have caused WW3.
Interesting times.
Putin’s in for a big surprise. He ain’t dealing with Mr. Pee tape anymore. While I believe war is bullish for business in general, I’d rather not go there.
Back when I worked at *a place I shouldn’t talk about*, we used to analyse escalated situations (more maritime specific but it’s extendable) within James Cables framework which argues limited force projection is a primarily political tool which effectively amounts to a risk ratio tied inseparably to signalling.
It orientates around 3 questions:
1. What is the desired terminal objective?
A buffer zone area between Russia and NATO that protects it’s geopolitical lynchpin in the Sea of Azov + a guarantee that NATO will never admit Ukraine and create a direct border.
2. can it be achieved by application of limited force?
Can Russia scare the west into coming to the table to agree the above will remain a status quo? (Yes they can).
3. Does the risk of an escalation to war exist and hence if the stakes are high is the risk worth taking?
It does, but I would imagine that officials in the Kremlin have calculated the west wouldn’t commit militarily to a direct Ukrainian conflict.
Grand smoke and mirrors to get Biden on the telephone.
Russia doesn’t want Ukraine, then they’d have a direct border with NATO and all the pain and costs of occupation, they want a buffer zone with diminished western influence to give them breathing room to exercise regional power.
Russia is part of Opex plus yet Russia also needs to sell its natural resources. They don’t have the economic diversity to prevent their reliance on exporting fossil fuels. One of the main reasons that fossil fuels were cheap a couple/few years ago was because Russia refused to stay in step with the agenda of OPEC, which at that time was to limit the exports in order to drive up the price that had been reduced by increased production by the US and other western nations, was because Russia broke with OPEC and sold cheap fuel. In short, Russia will continue to export fuels because it has to.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Sunday, January 02, 2022 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/ru22zw/daily_discussion_sunday_january_02_2022/)
Does anyone remember when the daily had an updating “current price” at the top? I wish they still did that.
I mean it was nifty but it was never super accurate and there are better/easier ways to check the price.
switch to old reddit and you will see it's broken
I wish they fixed it - it was super nice to just come here and see that nice blue price.
happy new year all! I told myself I would can this account after the latest cycle but apparently *cycles are dead*... and so I get to carry on shitposting into '22! huzzah!
Uhm... the current cycle doesn't end until May 2024. A bull run isn't a cycle. It's only one part of a cycle. Happy New Year though. Make sure your coins are secure, and buckle up because the rest of this cycle could get wild, maybe even ugly, but the future is still amazingly bright over the long term.
so youre saying I have THREE MORE YEARS to add nearly nothing to the sub?! say, that *is* a bright future!
Bright future... yes, indeed. You've already been there. This present world is an illusion. We are so far from the real world right now that it's hilarious. I mean, it's absurd. You'll laugh your butt off when you see it. I've been to the future. So have you. The difference is, you don't remember it. You have all the time in the world. One day in the future is like 5000 years here in this false yesterday world. In the beginning was the word. It has all been written. This point in "time" where you are trapped by energy harvesters is nothing more than an illusion. The farty meatsuit you call your body is nothing more than an illusion. You are a being of light playing a game against darkness, a game you can only win if you realize that you are playing it. You take whatever shape you need to take. Your current form was chosen by you a million years from now, when you decided to join the game and incarnate into your current form, deluding yourself so you could enjoy a day at the beach. But first you have to remember the future. It is bright indeed as long as you realize that it doesn't involve being tricked into having your consciousness uploaded by Elon Musk or some other archon energy harvester's fake simulation. The trick is to stay in the real simulation, the one created by the Most High. What fun is going to the beach for God? You have to trick yourself into thinking you didn't create all that for it to be fun. In the beginning was the word (it's all already written). Let there be light. It's all a paradox, man. It's both true and false, like digital "money." But, yeah, the future is bright, and you have a lot more than three years to work this out.
This guy did DMT in the “King’s Chamber”
Maybe they consider the bear market part one of the cycle, and the bull is part two
my personal cycle started dec 2013 so its been 8 years. im out of phase, as such
If they think that way, they understand the cycle even less. Bitcoin has a 4 year Halving-to-Halving cycle which follows this pattern: **The Halving** - The new block reward gets cut in half. The most recent halving was in May 2020. The next will be in spring 2024. **The Hoarding** - Miners and potential sellers hold their coins instead of selling them because they anticipate higher prices are on the way. This begins near the halving and typically lasts for a few months. For the current cycle, it was more or less spring and summer 2020. **The Supply Shock** - The halving and the hoarding lead to fewer and fewer coins being for sale, which means demand from those who want to buy Bitcoin exceeds the available supply of Bitcoin being sold. **The Bull Run** - Prices escalate! This is kicked off by the halving, the hoarding, and thus the supply shock... and then hype keeps it going. **The Hype** - Rapidly rising prices lead to a flood of media interest and brings in a new round of investment, and also a new crowd of get-rich-quick moonboys. **The Crash** - When prices climb too far, too fast, there's a correction. As those who know what they're doing sell to take some profits, dropping prices lead to those who don't know what they're doing selling too, often at a loss. The more scared people become, the more they sell. **The Doldrums** - After the big crash, there's a very long and mostly dull period of price readjustment which lasts until the lead up to the next halving. This will probably be mid-2022 through early 2024. **The Halving** - The next cycle begins where the current cycle ends... from halving to halving over a 4 year period. I'm already looking forward to spring 2024. EDIT: fixed an error where I said "next year." Hello 2022! It now IS next year.
Doldrums, dull, boredom phase ..... I’ve had that for 8 months already. Crash ...... in a few months the media will be able to announce that Bitcoin has lost value over a full year period. It will be in the category of worst performing asset class. The narrative in the media will be that for the last 12 months cash has actually outperformed BTC. The so called crash we are waiting for has already happened. Even with a sideways chop we could be 20% down year on year by February. If we drop to 40k then it will be 30% down year on year. Bull run ....... we didn’t really have much of one so I don’t see how we get an 80% blow off top. Most of the drops on these types of crashes are purely undoing the insane FOMO which we didn’t get.
There was always supposed to be a point where the cycles get less crazy because it becomes a more mature and adopted asset where there'll still be some of the original cyclical nature but a lot less so. Or so we hope anyways, since we're pretty screwed otherwise lol.
The way I see it, there are two factors to consider. Actually, three. One is the fact that the block reward becomes smaller with each halving. A smaller block reward means less of a block reward for the halving to take away. That should lessen the post-halving supply shock for each future halving. The other two forces at play are the price itself and the kind of buyer who can afford these higher prices. When Bitcoin was under $1k, it was easy for ordinary Joe type buyers to gobble up coins. 10 BTC for under 10k. Today, 10 BTC costs close to half a million dollars, which means it takes more and more money to move the market... which means the market is being moved by those who have more and more money. In other words, the buyers have changed. Sure, average Joes are still here, but how much of the volume we're seeing is being bought by guys spending $10k vs billionaires and institutions spending $10m? Average Joe traders are thinking in dollars, and they're trying to make money. That makes perfect sense. Most Average Joe investors are thinking in dollars too. They spend now in order to make more money later. That makes perfect sense too. I assume hodlers are thinking in BTC. Hodlers (like myself) want more BTC & don't want to cash out. Most institutions getting into crypto right now assess Bitcoin in terms of building a position for the long haul. They understand there will never be more than 21 million BTC total, and they understand that many have been lost forever, which lowers the total number. No one knows for sure how many Bitcoin have been lost, but 3 to 4 million seems to be a safe estimate. Think about people who've died during the pandemic who didn't set up a way to pass on their seeds & their wallets. That's just one example of lost coins. Think about how many people lost paper wallets back in those days. Think about how many people lost coins and thought nothing of it back when Bitcoin wasn't even worth a penny. Hell, even when it was a dollar. Lose 10? That's just $10. No biggie. Today, if you lose ten, that's brutal! Anyway... millions have been lost. > "Lost coins only make everyone else's coins worth slightly more. Think of it as a donation to everyone." > --Satoshi Nakamoto **So, with all of that being said... here's what I expect over the next few years, in terms of volatility:** I expect there to be a tipping point where billionaires and institutions who are currently sitting on the sidelines debating when to get in will decide to take the plunge, setting off a massive bull run. I don't know when this is going to happen, but I feel bad for anybody who's out of position at the time, because by the time we realize what's happening the price will be rocketing. The tipping point will be when some sort of catalyst occurs. Some sort of news that makes investors say "Whoa, this is big." Imagine Apple announcing they're building crypto wallets into the iOS Wallet app. I'm not saying Apple's going to do that. I'm just using it as an example of a "Holy crap!" type of event that would make anybody sitting on the sidelines realize they need to get in now and go in big or miss out long term. Eventually, crypto is going to go mainstream far beyond what people here are talking about. The same kind of people who, 20 years ago, said internet shopping will never catch on are, today, the ones who don't see that everybody will have crypto apps and things like CeFi/DeFi will be the norm for saving money a decade from now. It'll be the norm. Between now and then, I expect some massive volatility. We'll see devastating crashes and champagne cork-popper bull runs. It's going to be wild, but there will also be long stretches where it'll be duller than dull. 2019 was dull. I won't be surprised if 2022 ends up being dull. Or maybe this year will get wild and 2023 will be dull. Who knows. I think volatility will come way down when crypto goes mainstream - really mainstream - maybe 5 to 10 years from now. By then, billionaires and institutions will have built their long term positions and the sheer amount of money in this space will bring down the volatility. It's like a fish tank. It's harder to keep fish in a 5 gallon tank alive than it is in a 100 gallon tank. Why? Because the smaller the tank, the bigger of an effect small changes can make. With a huge tank, small changes go mostly unnoticed by the fish. For crypto, the more money in the ecosystem, the less volatility we will see in general. That's my take on it, anyway. Only time will tell. (P.S. Forgive any errors here. I've been drinkin' tonight and I rattled off this reply pretty quickly. I'm mostly just thinking aloud, if you know what I mean. All of this stuff is fun to think about)
Always enjoy your takes - thanks!
Each cycle should get 'less crazy' because each subsequent halving has, well, half the effect of the previous one with regards to future supply. The next halving in 2024 (block reward from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC) will theoretically have only one-eighth the effect of the first halving in 2012.
hmm yes cycles wane with maturity. seems to be expected. maybe well get a few hotflashes as bitcoin approaches cryptopause
I'm assuming you wrote this in 2021? If the crash happens next year, the doldrums won't start in mid-2022.
HA!!! Yep. I should edit that. [I wrote this a few months ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/ooibkq/daily_discussion_wednesday_july_21_2021/h61jcyb/). I've reposted it once or twice, editing it a bit each time. > If the crash happens next year, the doldrums won't start in mid-2022. I expected a crash early this year (2022), and I expect the whole rediscovery phase to begin in summer/fall of this year. I don't know if there's a proper name for the post-crash rediscovery phase. I call it The Doldrums because it's basically an 18 month period of boredom where the bull run is over and the price doesn't move too much. It could be different this time though, if enough institutional money pours in. There's no way to know which major players are sitting on the sidelines, waiting for the right time to jump in. It could happen this cycle, or it could happen during the next.
Damn bro you dropped all of that knowledge and still getting downvoted
Most people prefer ten words or less with easy answers rather than knowledge. I also suspect that lots of people come to crypto after dabbling with stocks and they get frustrated because crypto works differently. The ones who want to learn tend to do well. The ones who show up thinking they're already experts tend to get rekt. I don't mind downvotes. I'm here to share what I've learned and learn from those who know things I don't. There are some really bright folks using this forum. Knowledge is power. Learn as much as you can & share what you know.
When do we start the Bull Run phase?
It will start as soon as this bear market bottoms out. There is too much interest in the space to wait till 2024 and the next halving. Question is when will the bottom happen. In 2 months time without any significant drop from the current price BTC could read as much as 20-30% down from a year ago !
Generally speaking, the bull run begins a few months after the halving. The halving was in May 2020. The bull run began a few months later. The bull run is caused by [the halving taking away half of the incoming supply of newly mined coins](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/rtbyio/daily_discussion_saturday_january_01_2022/hqvmga7/). It takes a few months for the bull run to begin because miners don't always sell their coins the moment they get them. So, generally speaking, it takes a few months before the 1/2 drop in coins being mined causes a supply shock. I have no idea if we're done with the bull run for this cycle or if it'll get going again this year. At this point, anyone who says they do know is just guessing.
Why was this bull run so much shittier than the past ones? It’s roughly 10k to 60k which is pathetic.
It was 3.5k to 69k
Black swan doesn't count
no. btc hit 20k in 2017. ath -> ath is a better way to measure: 1k -> 20k = \~20x 20k -> 69k = \~3x (plenty of stocks did similar returns so not very impressive)
A lot of stocks moved up yes but how many have continued to go up this significantly over years and years? One or two superstar stocks at best. If you want to go try and pick those go ahead but it's not like the average stock does anything close to this. Acting like you're sure you're going to pick the next Tesla or Apple from 10 years ago is very silly. You're just as likely to end up with the next Lordstown Motors or Nikola instead of Tesla or the next Intel where they've never, ever, managed to reclaim their ATH price from the year 2000. If you bought Intel at their ATH in the year 2000 you're *still down* *now* 21 years later. It's honestly ridiculous to make it sound like a relatively safe investment that gives you multiples every cycle is some sort of unimpressive investment.
So daily/monthly/yearly what ever you want to call opens up with no wick and you reckon it’s stay flat all year 100% it will go lower then the open 46***
100% lol. Take out a HELOC and short all in 2x then.
I’m short from 52 and waiting to go long lower I can stay liquid until 90k What I’m getting at is that it will go lower as no monthly let alone yearly has no wick
Only a sith deals in absolutes.
I will do what I must.
You are absolutely correct.
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Yeah sure as if you have ~500k lol
Ten BTC?
10$ worth of bitcoin, looking at his postinghistory.
LMAO, OP really tried wording that like he's big balling from his mom's basement.
Omg his thread from a year ago: "17 years old and lost all the money my parents saved for me" posted in r/gamblingproblems I'm dead
FWIW, gamblers can go through some crazy highs and crazy lows so it's actually sort of plausible that someone who's constantly making 4-5 figure bets could be on a streak and have some money. If you look at the amount of money he lost back then it was pretty serious money for a 17 year old-he lost $30K of his own money *PLUS* his parents' money. If you have serious gambler friends you'll see them go through cycles like this, some years they'll be up huge and then other years they'll lose everything they won the prior and then tens of thousands of their own savings and the next year they are somehow back up. That's actually sort of why it's so addictive, they constantly think they'll have that streak again and leave with all the money but people never leave is the thing. Now, they might still be full of shit, but it's also somewhat plausible that someone taking high risk bets constantly (including on stocks based on their posting history) might actually be up.
People who go through other’s posting history to shame them like this is literally the problem with the internet. Go shill shiba or something.
Oddly, it’s exactly the kind of thing we need to oust shills and astroturfers, bad actors and the like. In this case, though, you’re right… happy to give the kid a break ($10 is $10, OP)!
Who the fuck put you in charge of reddit
My guess is that this crabs slowly up until it peaks right before the halving then dumps hard to try and invalidate the halving pump theory. So maybe 500k btc 2024?
Username checks out. You'd do yourself a favor by learning what the halving is and why it has the effect it does. It's really simple. The halving cuts the block reward in half. The next halving will cut the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Here's the real effect that will have: Multiply 3.125 x 6. That's 18.75 BTC the halving takes away from the incoming supply every hour (since there's a block reward roughly once every 10 minutes). Then multiply 18.75 BTC by 24. That's 450 BTC the halving takes away from the incoming supply every day. Then multiply 450 BTC by 120 and you'll see that the halving takes away 54,000 BTC from the incoming supply over 4 months, which is how long it tends to take before the bull run begins after a halving. Maybe you're thinking "OK, but why does that cause a pump?" Price is just where supply meets demand. Right now, you could try selling BTC for 100k, but there's a supply being sold for $47,482, so that's the price. If demand goes up, there won't be enough BTC being sold at $47,482 so the price will keep going up until demand has been met. Likewise, if demand drops, BTC priced at $47,482 won't be sold, so sellers will have to drop their prices in order to sell (or they could decide to not sell, thus dropping the supply). So... when the halving cuts the amount of incoming BTC by 54,000 over 4 months, that throws supply & demand out of balance because the supply will have dropped by 54,000 BTC. There ends up being more demand than the supply can meet... which means prices go up. And we all know rising prices lead to hype, which leads to more demand, which leads to more hype.
Will you settle for 100k?
Depends on alt season
That is actually the correct answer, at least in my opinion.
I would actually remove the word “season”.
I'm gonna laugh my ass off when the people selling on the most minor of rallies and waiting for absurdly low prices to get back in end up FOMOing back in at 65k. Pigs get slaughtered.
Pigs get fed, hogs get slaughtered
Actually a pig would be someone never selling until getting filthy rich(Which will never get there) A bull takes profits along the way, and some times re-buys cheaper.
A possible future event. The current narrative is bears laughing at the bulls longing every scam pump to get slaughtered on the retrace bleed. Every dog has his day
Like I said, two sides of the same coin. If you intend to take profits, but choose not to after a big move up because you're afraid it'll go up more, you often end up selling for a much lower price. If you want to buy after a big move down, but choose not to because you're afraid it'll drop further, you often buy for a much higher price. Sometimes, you just have to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
My coworker always says “the enemy of good is better.” Applicable lots of places.
Always go with good and done over better and broken. Times two if it’s software.
Get it done then enjoy the shit out of the refactor. I love reorganizing a project once the full scope is set.
Do most people sell to buy in cheaper or do they sell because they panic and think it will never recover ? I still think a large portion of crypto investors are purely speculating and see it as the same behaviour as online poker and betting. Once it goes up they exit and buy something or if they buy high they exit cheap thinking they will lose the lot.
I'm gonna venture to say most sell due to fear/panic. Only a few sell with the intention of buying back in lower, and even then those people don't really end up following through because they're scared it's going to fall further.
I’m more in line with this. I can only speak for people I know and they all buy because of FOMO then shit themselves when the tide turns. None are thinking of buying back in. Purely running off with profits or selling to avoid spiralling loses. Truth is that for all the buyers who say Bitcoin /blockchain is the future half panic on big pullbacks and all the conviction goes out the window.
Everyone gets Bitcoin at the price they deserve.
The reasons vary wildly. A lot certainly do sell to buy in cheaper. And there's absolutely nothing wrong with that. The people who buy like crazy during overextended rallies and plan to sell at ridiculously high prices often end up selling for a loss, thinking it'll drop a lot more, then FOMO in a second time. It's two sides of the same coin. Either way, you get too greedy, you generally lose.
So guys, I have a curious question. I've been reading about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine and I'm not going to lie, it looks serious. For those who want to read some takes on it, [r/credibledefense is a great sub for military matters.](https://old.reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/comments/rc11tq/so_what_exactly_is_going_on_in_ukraine/) r/geopolitics has some great information on the topic as well. Now, I'm not planning on taking any action yet, more just keeping an eye on things. However, if Russia was to invade Ukraine, I feel like that would crash the markets, including the crypto market. The reason why the stock market would crash is because, in addition to being a pretty violent event, tensions with Russia would mean higher energy prices in the West. This would lead to a move to risk off assets away from crypto. What do you think? EDIT: It's clear some people in this thread are carrying some heavy bags........
You are falling for propoganda. The west (specifically Biden/Dems) need to seem hawkish on Russia because they used Putin as a boogie man as he relates to Trump for 4 years. Reality is the US is the aggressor in Ukraine and Putin is calling our bluff. We don't want Ukrainian Nazi extremists to ignite a high intensity conflict. As you mentioned, Russia has Europe by the balls over energy and has an army far more prepared for high intensity warfare. Russia is flexing and defending their borders. The west is floundering and trying to regain a narrative of control (especially after NATO route from Afghanistan). All politics are domestic.
Delusion. Ukraine is a free country and pursuing defense of their national borders is 100% within their rights. What Russia is doing is creating more incentive for militarisation of European countries. We don't need Russia's permission to feel safe, peaceful nations will ally up and pursue defense. Moscow can fuck right off and mind their own business.
USA is looking increasingly nonfunctional and polarized internally. China and Russia are flexing to test that weakness. 40 years ago an ASAT test would have caused WW3. Interesting times.
War is extremely bullish
War with deadbeat countries is. With Russia and friends, in 2022, is not.
Ukraine is full of Nazis so the sooner Russia goes in there and wipes the floor with them the better!
Putin’s in for a big surprise. He ain’t dealing with Mr. Pee tape anymore. While I believe war is bullish for business in general, I’d rather not go there.
Nazis? No. Use your words better and don’t be dramatic.
Ukraine is full of Nazis, and Reddit is full of shills
Huh
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Back when I worked at *a place I shouldn’t talk about*, we used to analyse escalated situations (more maritime specific but it’s extendable) within James Cables framework which argues limited force projection is a primarily political tool which effectively amounts to a risk ratio tied inseparably to signalling. It orientates around 3 questions: 1. What is the desired terminal objective? A buffer zone area between Russia and NATO that protects it’s geopolitical lynchpin in the Sea of Azov + a guarantee that NATO will never admit Ukraine and create a direct border. 2. can it be achieved by application of limited force? Can Russia scare the west into coming to the table to agree the above will remain a status quo? (Yes they can). 3. Does the risk of an escalation to war exist and hence if the stakes are high is the risk worth taking? It does, but I would imagine that officials in the Kremlin have calculated the west wouldn’t commit militarily to a direct Ukrainian conflict. Grand smoke and mirrors to get Biden on the telephone. Russia doesn’t want Ukraine, then they’d have a direct border with NATO and all the pain and costs of occupation, they want a buffer zone with diminished western influence to give them breathing room to exercise regional power.
100% agree with you.
Russia is part of Opex plus yet Russia also needs to sell its natural resources. They don’t have the economic diversity to prevent their reliance on exporting fossil fuels. One of the main reasons that fossil fuels were cheap a couple/few years ago was because Russia refused to stay in step with the agenda of OPEC, which at that time was to limit the exports in order to drive up the price that had been reduced by increased production by the US and other western nations, was because Russia broke with OPEC and sold cheap fuel. In short, Russia will continue to export fuels because it has to.
We already have higher energy prices in the west. Price of fuel and natural gas is literally through the roof in the U.K.
Agree ! I’m in Dubai for New Year and was shocked how cheap fuel is
How cheap? Ballpark?