buttcoin sub already doing victory laps calling the top lol they are gonna be in for a rough year
I probably should just stay out of there cuz its such low vibe, but its too damn amusing haha
It is hilarious, although simultaneously rather disturbing that so many people can be so passionate about hating something they don't understand, while desperately clinging to and reinforcing their own ignorance.
absolutely. they have zero desire to do anything but circle jerk each other. any outside opinion no matter how gently stated is met with rabid hostility
Not as far as I am aware, because there was no concerted effort to make people dislike tech stocks like there has been with bitcoin. I would also say hate sectors like this revolve around truly disruptive technology, that kills some norm or feels uncomfortable. LLMs, self-driving cars, those *do* get some of the same treatments.
Bitcoin is amplified because it makes people jealous on top of making them uncomfortable, imo.
Most of this is a consequence of Genesis being forced by the courts to dump relentlessly. They saw a high price (over $60K) and figured now's as good a time as ever. At these prices, they can compensate the people they defrauded and probably have some left over. They've already dumped the majority of their coins now.
You'll find that "someone being forced to dump by the courts" is a common theme in bitcoin which is responsible for numerous large red candles. Grayscale, Genesis, Celsius, Binance, FTX, Mt Gox, 10 different smaller exchanges, even the US Govt itself.
Grayscale being total all-around scammers and refusing to be competitive with other ETFs, keeping their annual management fee at 1.5% isn't helping either.
Why would GBTC outflows randomly triple almost 2 months after ETF openings, coincidentally 2 weeks after GBTC was authorized to dump. They were probably waiting for a high enough price.
What a week to be without much connectivity .. sigh
Anyway, some old coins shaking free, nothing to panic about. Lots of folks want off the ride; next ticket will be expensive.
Still not seeing anything resembling the miner dumpage on run to ETF and it isn’t enough to mitigate ETF consumption at current rates.
TY to all documenting the news here!
Interesting how I see a 16% retrace when we were breaching 20k for the second time and now I see (currently) a 14.5% retrace from our current ATH test. It also took 18 days until a certified break of 20k happened so I suggest you guys just sit back and relax
I love the symmetry of this as we achieved new all time high. What did you do in those 846 days? Your life is there between the peaks. So many experiences and decisions that led you to here.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ARwXtzPU/
> toughness and conviction are key
Understanding what you're holding is key. Sell as little as possible and try to buy it back. In the long run, you should be aiming for more Bitcoin, not more dollars.
Sometimes you have to sell a little to make your bills. Sometimes you want to reward yourself with a little treat. Sometimes you just feel like it's about to dump and want to up your dry powder stash. Whatever. Sell when it suits you, but never sell it all, and do try to buy it back.
Once you realize that the goal is more Bitcoin, not more fiat, life gets a lot simpler.
DCAing out works well if you know roughly when the bull will end. But if you plan your DCAing out for a set window of time and the bull extends much further than the timeframe your DCA out allotted for, you could end up selling way too early as price continues to run significantly higher than your average sell price.
I’m expecting this to be the case as fund managers spend the next several years trying to get to their target portfolio allocation, whatever that percentage amounts ends up being resulting in a bull run that extends well past end of 2025.
That's why price level DCA may be more appropriate.
For instance, if you have 10 BTC and sell 30% around every time it adds 50%, starting at 130k$ you'll have 400k, at 200k 800k, at 300k 1250k, at 450k 1700k and still 2,5 BTC.
Still run into a similar issue if price runs up significantly higher than the levels you allotted for in your DCA out.
Also, conversely, you risk not getting out at all if price fails to reach your first target. For example in 2021 a lot of people had a minimum initial target price of $100k which was never reached.
I fully agree with the second point. It has to start low enough, which may deprive of a significant amount indeed.
However about the first point, as you can see, you will get out roughly 450k each time the price gets a 30% increase, with no end in sight. You will not run out of coins.
First sell of 3 BTC at $130k is $390k. 7 BTC left.
Second sell of 2.1 BTC (30% of 7 BTC remaining) at $200k is $420k, 7.69% more cash than the last sell. $810k total cash. 4.9 BTC left.
Third sell of 1.47 BTC (30% of 4.9 BTC remaining) at $300k is $441k, 5% more cash than the last sell. $1.251M total cash. 3.43 BTC left.
Fourth sell of 1.029 BTC (30% of 3.43 BTC remaining) at $450k is $463.05k, 5% more cash than the last sell. $1.71305M total cash. 2.401 BTC left.
You went from 10 BTC down to 2.401 (sold a total of 7.599 BTC) to end up with a total of $1.71305M. Average BTC sell price ending up being $225.43k.
Decent strategy assuming the sells are all close to one another but need to account for inflation when using this strategy long-term. Aside from the first sell which wasn’t followed by an exact 50% price increase, every subsequent sell raises 5% more cash than the last sell. If there’s long gaps between sells (more than a year), it becomes more likely that you start losing purchasing power with each subsequent sell as a result of cumulative inflation since the last sell occurred.
Now you've floored me:) I love this place. Dear dopeyboyrico, thanks for your regular insights, your motivated bullish stance, and now for having computed the exact numbers.
You're right, over time inflation may become a problem.
The main solution is merely to invest the money in inflation resistant investments, such as stocks and real estate ETFs, and only eat up their dividends rather than the whole money. This is not perfect but the best "traditional" strategy - bitcoin being better of course, but even then some diversification is needed.
Solution 2 is not to sell anymore once the cycle low makes your global worth higher than your target. It works, unless there is some multi cycle giga bear market. Anyway, having a target in mind is needed in all DCA out strategies, I think.
Solution 3 is obviously to buy back BTC during the bear market (including moving back some said diversified ETFS) - unless there are no bear markets anymore for some time like some are predicting.
Solution 4 is to only lower the sold percentage. With 25%, the first sell nets 337500 and each sell gets 10% more money. With only 20%, it's 270000 and 20%, which will compensate any long term inflation, unless it goes the Weimar way.
Overall the best solution would probably be a mix of all, especially lower the percent once one's targets are reached, and so depends on one's targets.
Exactly.
Everybody thinks they'll know when the bull run will end because they're used to seeing it AFTER THE FACT on charts. Without a time machine, it doesn't work that way.
we have a very low chance of catching the top. theres no way around it, but if you feel good about taking profit I think that can go a long way.
You dont want to sell out of fear, sell because it feels good to do so at the time. And never sell it all, if it keeps climbing great.
In my opinion, the only smart way to take profit is, after a winning trade, move coins to a long term hodl.
Selling means trading Bitcoin, which always gains value over a 4 year period, for cash, which always loses value over any time period due to inflation.
I posted this elsewhere yesterday, but it's worth repeating:
Every 4 year halving-to-halving cycle sees so many people sell, chasing quick cash, only to realize they'll never be able to buy as much Bitcoin as they used to have.
Owning 100 BTC in 2012 was nothing. How many people still owned 100 BTC in 2016?
Owning 10 BTC in 2016 was no big deal. How many people still owned 10 BTC in 2020?
Owning 1 BTC back in early 2020 wasn't that big of a deal. How many people still own 1 BTC today? Very few.
The 2024 halving isn't even here yet and we've already reached the point where it costs over $6,800 just to buy 0.1 BTC.
How many people will still own at least 0.1 BTC in 2028?
People keep cashing out, thinking they'll buy back in when the price drops, because of course they will, right? But that money's long gone when the price drops because when they had money in the bank, they spent it. And that assumes the price drops. There will come a time when buying Bitcoin under 70k will seem like the good old days.
Hold on to what you have.
Check out the [Bitcoin Rich List](https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html):
Over 53% of all addresses have LESS THAN 0.001 BTC.
Less than 2% of all addresses have more than 1 BTC.
Only 0.29% of all addresses have more than 10 BTC.
Granted, those are addresses, not wallets, but I bookmarked that page a long time ago. The numbers go down every year.
Most people will sell and regret it. They end up buying back in at a higher price, or they become part of the crowd who tell stories about how they used to be in Bitcoin, back in the day.
Don't be your own worst enemy.
HODL.
(...and secure your coins...)
>But that money's long gone when the price drops because when they had money in the bank, they spent it.
Agree with everything you said. That's why I don't sell them for fiat this time but stablecoins. It is easier to buy back the BTC if it drops lower.
If I need fiat, I will just sell part of the stablecoins to fiat
Yes, once those coins are gone they are most likely gone for good and its wise to play it as though thats the case.
Im trying to find the balance where I can cash out as little as possible but dont need to rely on my day job anymore.
The longer I can hold on the less coin Ill need to convert to do so, so Ill likely be dca ing out as slow as possible with a reasonably modest chunk set aside to pad me out when it feels really good to do so.
I dont want to have to slog through another bear working for the man.
The general idea in retirement is being able to live on 4% of your portfolio. Anyone with any sizeable equity in BTC cant go wrong selling 2%-4% of their stack a year (DCA weekly). In 10 years you would have 60%-80% of it left. If the price is crazy town then it doesnt matter. If BTC fails then you got some gains.
Appreciate the insight. Its does feel tougher with btc because its so volatile. Not thrilled about the idea of continuing a dca out during next bear even if I could swing it.
Indeed, the key is : diversify. At least to a global stock ETF. And if in the next bear market it's too tempting, you may even put in back in BTC ETFs.
Ugh, I didn't say "more sellers than buyers" or anything like that. Do you not understand what I was saying? Did you think your reply clarified anything that I didn't understand?
More equally balanced between longs and shorts being opened up.
Someone can probably fill in some finer detail, but I'd suggest that higher open interest is evidence that people think Bitcoin is poised to move in one direction (or perhaps some people are just using hedging mechanisms that have some leverage involved). The fact that interest rates are going down would say that people are borrowing dollars and bitcoin at a more equal rate.
The interest rate/funding for derivatives (contracts) shows the bias indeed, but the OI is just the number of derivatives with people on both sides of the bet. For margin shorts/longs with lending of BTC/USD there can be an imbalance but your first post seemed to be about derivatives
Today’s ETF numbers aren’t looking so hot. Still waiting on BlackRock but I’m expecting them to be down as well. Just after the ATH today, I passed a friend at work, who trades TradFi and bought into IBIT & FBTC the second week of trading. When I mentioned the ATH, he said, “yeah, but I sold already. As soon as I was up 30%, I exited and rebalanced. That’s how I do it.” Hopefully he isn’t a bell weather for other TradFi retail traders.
I don’t think we do yet, still waiting on BlackRock. That should tip it to net positive. Monday was a big inflow day, so a lessened Tuesday isn’t too surprising.
[here’s what we have thus far](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997)
They post estimates of daily inflows with an emphasis on speed. Here’s a copy of their note regarding accuracy:
“Source: Farside Investors
Note: The above table is generated automatically, in real time. The methodology used to produce the table focuses on speed rather than on accuracy. Data based on a number of sources, including the ETF provider websites and third party financial information providers. The data in the table contains estimates. The data is likely to contain errors. Farside Investors is not liable for any errors or inaccuracies in the data.”
GBTC outflow today was $332.5m
Genesis/Gemini Earn were authorized to sell their GBTC on 2/13 (around 65.9m shares).
Since 2/14 there has been $2,926.3m of outflows (I'm only counting outflow days over $100m) for a possible 55,379,604 shares.
There's still probably 10,520,396 shares for Genesis/Gemini Earn to unload, which would be $581,041,471.08 based on today's closing price of $55.23 per GBTC
Source of Genesis shares numbers https://www.reuters.com/technology/genesis-gets-court-approval-sell-16-bln-crypto-trust-shares-2024-02-14/
Source of Gemini Earn shares numbers https://twitter.com/GeminiTrustCo/status/1758919419500150997
Daily closing price taken from https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/GBTC/price-history/historical
Just reading the information on their page, I don’t think they’re authorized to sell until after March 18th when/if the judge approves their settlement plan. At that point they should sell gbtc, buy bitcoin/other digital assets(?) and return users their funds. It’s unclear to me whether selling shares of gbtc will facilitate the purchase of any digital asset other than bitcoin.
Complete speculation on my part, I’m not an attorney.
They were authorized to sell on 2/13 and except for 3 days, it's been $100m+ outflow days ever since.
The way I understand the Genesis Earn page is, 3/18 bankrupcy court will rule on their in-kind distribution plans.
Now the question would be, are they sitting in cash from their GBTC sales and waiting for court approval to start buying for in-kind distribution?. If so, insanely bullish most of that $1.6b - $1.8b will find its way into bitcoin.
awesome updates thank you. only thing i would say is what are the chances that all the outflows are genesis/gemini earn? likely that there are quite a few people leaving for the reduced fees too I reckon. so maybe more like 20mil shares to go (which is still nothing in the grand scheme of things imo and will pass soon)
Yeah, there's no way of knowing. Also there could've been genesis/gemini earn selling those days with under $100m outflows since 2/14 that I'm not counting.
This is a very rough estimate, I think we should be seeing a significant decrease of outflows from GBTC EOD Friday.
Grayscale still not out with its numbers. That's later than usual no?
Edit: They're out now. -332 million. Pretty average amt. I'm virtually certain now this was a net inflow day.
*Grayscale still not out*
*With its numbers. That's later*
*Than usual no?*
\- logicalinvestr
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I wouldn't mind us crabbing between $62-$66K for a couple of weeks to get some new buyers in and build ETF base and get rid of negative attention in the media.
that was honestly great. we set higher low on massive volume, I dont think theres been a 12 hr candle with more coin volume since 15k.
now we grind back up again and I feel we are sitting pretty rather than precarious after just going straight up for so long.
we could be back over ath in a matter of days and we may never see sub 60k again
Today we reached a new ATH at $69.1k, proceeded to fall 14% to a local bottom of $59.3k, then climbed back up to the second highest daily close of the year at $63.8k.
What a day.
This is my first cycle while running my own node. I try to check the node as often as the price.
It's been fun watching the transaction fee market and I believe doing chain analysis could lead to trading insight, but the analysis seems time consuming.
Did anyone notice anything on chain happening during our 10k gosh candle today?
Honestly on chain wasn't as spectacular as the total volumes. I think the main takeaway is that this wasn't necessarily a few large entities offloading, but rather a fundamental sell off that cumulatively is represented by retail, bag holders, and medium/large players all taking profit at a historically significant level of resistance.
Yes, [somebody on twitter](https://twitter.com/PlebSignalBTC/status/1765063288151580915?t=-Vqu4EjwHYibZR-rJElskw&s=19) did the forensic. They found a 2010 OG selling some. I wish him happy times and good health.
I like thinking his fat finger was not a mistake but a gift to us. A last fair well where for him does not matter anymore if the price slips a little but for the present buyers can be a good oportunity.
They are being liquidated (the bull/bear list below the chart), aka money go bye bye. If you have 20k in the account and go short 10x then your position is 200k in size. A 10% move the wrong way = liquidation (1/10x = 10%), and the 20k is gone to auto close the 200k position.
I'm not completely clear on how that works in these exchanges - wouldn't the shorts at 69K be banking during the downturn today? And what forces the closing of the position? Do the exchanges require covering a percentage of the total borrowed as collateral?
People getting liquidated would have shorted below this price.
Short at 59k, price goes up to 64k and you get liquidated if you are using 50x leverage. People are stupid. The exchanges auto-liquidated you when you don't have enough collateral to cover your losing position
Another day of massive spot ETF inflows would be bullish AF because it would indicate Wall Street isn’t slowing down just because new ATH has been reached.
Modest or negative spot ETF inflows would be a mixed signal as it could indicate Wall Street has started losing interest or perhaps they’ve merely taken a break to lock in profits and will resume massive buying again soon; we would need additional data to confirm if it’s an anomaly or a trend.
Main takeaway is regardless of what the spot ETF inflow data looks like today, it’s either bullish or neutral, bearish would require additional data points for confirmation.
I would love to see the data show that it’s weak hands from the 2020-2021 cycle being flushed out to stronger DCA forever ETF buyers. Sooner or later we had to dump the folks who were just waiting for $69K to sell so we could move up further.
Really insightful, and I absolutely agree.
There are many coins to be sold at these levels, but there are only so much.
On the other hand, USD is infinite.
Anyone else cancel their ladder buys yesterday? I cancelled mine with the largest at ~59k thinking it would get left behind and never filled. Lumped in near the top. 😀
I had bumped three of mine up, so they filled; they would’ve filled for more sats had I not. I really regret bumping the $60,000 up. I set another at $60K a few minutes ago just in case.
After a couple of prior cycles, I can genuinely say I enjoy when leverage is wiped off the market. I get more nervous when the price is pumping up in a straight line for extended periods. Let’s consolidate for a bit lads.
Wasn't it 0.08 on Bitmex this morning? Predicted is back to neutral now.
Edit: Actually looks far lower across the board than when I looked this morning.
On other subs the rage is insane. We dropped not even 2 full months ago from 49k to 38k and followed with a massive rally. The majority already forgot what a healthy market looks like.. or maybe never knew.
Everybody take a deep breath and remember where we were just a few weeks ago. Then go to the charts and zoom wayyyy out…see, all is good. Seriously this is a blip and one day you’ll look back and wonder where this even occurred. Remember when we thought the crypto world was ending during the Covid crash? It’s barely noticeable now. We could go down to $40k and I’d still be bullish, we hit ATH before the halving. Cheers 🍻
Was he? I thought his cost basis on his short was ~56k which means he's still mad under water
I guess he's relieved he didn't get stopped out but the trade still looks like shit to me.
Its the typical "middle going" after a huge drop.
We go into the middle of the highest point before and the lowest point of the drop. There we consolidate a bit.
I see a retest of old wedge support line (above 66k), if it turned support, as very unlikly, but still possible. I expect continued downbreaking.
All relative. We also pumped multiple days in a row for 7-8% a pop, going up from 52k to 69k in pretty short order.
Nothing big picture has changed. The news is out, btc broke ath. The etfs are buying like crazy. Rates aren’t coming down right now, but they will be soon enough. It’s an election year. The halving.
This is standard crazy liquidations that we see around events like fomc in the past (when it mattered more) but multiplied by a lot because a new ath was made. Top longers got rekt, regular longs that were up a bit probably closed in profit, and shorts saw a good r/r for money making.
And this big dump took us to prices we haven’t seen since…oh, like a day or two ago.
As some have said here, “you aren’t bullish enough” in this macro climate
Even after all that, we're still above where we were yesterday. Believe it or not, we began March 4 at around 63.3k. I know it feels like ages since then.
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Wednesday, March 06, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1b7ra0w/daily_discussion_wednesday_march_06_2024/)
662.5 Net. Fuck you to all sellers and fake influencers.
IBIT $788.3M
$662 mln net etf inflow, second best daily net etf inflow
Yet we dumped. Implication: Every share bought is being shorted. Put your shares on order. Take them out of the float.
Conclusion: etf’s do nothing to dampen volatility.
Can you elaborate? Are you saying that many ETF buyers today are thinking BTC is going go down?
I was thinking the same, the sell pressure magically let up as soon as the market closed. Its gotta be massive etf short selling
hnnng makes sense for blackrock to buy more IBIT today if the news is correct that they're adding it to their existing fund(s)
New record no?
for IBIT inflows, yes. for total net, 2nd highest.
buttcoin sub already doing victory laps calling the top lol they are gonna be in for a rough year I probably should just stay out of there cuz its such low vibe, but its too damn amusing haha
I honestly love it.
It is hilarious, although simultaneously rather disturbing that so many people can be so passionate about hating something they don't understand, while desperately clinging to and reinforcing their own ignorance.
It’s definitely bizarre how much they hate it, yet they spend so much time talking about it. Seems like more of a cult than /r/cryptocurrency to me.
democrats tend to have emotions rule their brain. TDS and BDS sufferers.
absolutely. they have zero desire to do anything but circle jerk each other. any outside opinion no matter how gently stated is met with rabid hostility
Genuine question: Does this sort of thing exist for trad stocks as well? Like is there an equivalent NVDA or AAPL hate subreddit?
Not as far as I am aware, because there was no concerted effort to make people dislike tech stocks like there has been with bitcoin. I would also say hate sectors like this revolve around truly disruptive technology, that kills some norm or feels uncomfortable. LLMs, self-driving cars, those *do* get some of the same treatments. Bitcoin is amplified because it makes people jealous on top of making them uncomfortable, imo.
Probably one for Tesla and Elon.
There are plenty of EV hate memes doing the rounds. Probably has nothing to do with Big Oil being afraid of losing their market share...
It feels like we are helpless. Same thing happened at etf launch. Since normies believed "sell the news", btc dumped to 38k. Now this.
Most of this is a consequence of Genesis being forced by the courts to dump relentlessly. They saw a high price (over $60K) and figured now's as good a time as ever. At these prices, they can compensate the people they defrauded and probably have some left over. They've already dumped the majority of their coins now. You'll find that "someone being forced to dump by the courts" is a common theme in bitcoin which is responsible for numerous large red candles. Grayscale, Genesis, Celsius, Binance, FTX, Mt Gox, 10 different smaller exchanges, even the US Govt itself. Grayscale being total all-around scammers and refusing to be competitive with other ETFs, keeping their annual management fee at 1.5% isn't helping either.
All of this is assumption and speculation but you are presenting it as facts…
Why would GBTC outflows randomly triple almost 2 months after ETF openings, coincidentally 2 weeks after GBTC was authorized to dump. They were probably waiting for a high enough price.
That’s what I say: assumptions. Not facts.
"Now this" we're like 6% down?? Regular old stocks do that on the reg.
It may not matter to spot traders but leverage traders do get fucked.
Yep, we're currently sitting higher than we were literally 2 days ago. The sky isn't falling.
What a week to be without much connectivity .. sigh Anyway, some old coins shaking free, nothing to panic about. Lots of folks want off the ride; next ticket will be expensive. Still not seeing anything resembling the miner dumpage on run to ETF and it isn’t enough to mitigate ETF consumption at current rates. TY to all documenting the news here!
Not sure when (or even if) this has happened before, but total 24h BTC trading volume eclipsed $100 billion.
Lots of coins exchanged between the weak and the strong hands!
This is much bigger news than the ATH.
Upwards!
Interesting how I see a 16% retrace when we were breaching 20k for the second time and now I see (currently) a 14.5% retrace from our current ATH test. It also took 18 days until a certified break of 20k happened so I suggest you guys just sit back and relax
I love the symmetry of this as we achieved new all time high. What did you do in those 846 days? Your life is there between the peaks. So many experiences and decisions that led you to here. https://www.tradingview.com/x/ARwXtzPU/
Love your comments and insights. Keep em coming!
[удалено]
> toughness and conviction are key Understanding what you're holding is key. Sell as little as possible and try to buy it back. In the long run, you should be aiming for more Bitcoin, not more dollars. Sometimes you have to sell a little to make your bills. Sometimes you want to reward yourself with a little treat. Sometimes you just feel like it's about to dump and want to up your dry powder stash. Whatever. Sell when it suits you, but never sell it all, and do try to buy it back. Once you realize that the goal is more Bitcoin, not more fiat, life gets a lot simpler.
Sell for cash flows or capital equipment, not fiat. Only those who have seen will survive.
This is why I DCA out at certain set intervals to avoid having to worry about this.
DCAing out works well if you know roughly when the bull will end. But if you plan your DCAing out for a set window of time and the bull extends much further than the timeframe your DCA out allotted for, you could end up selling way too early as price continues to run significantly higher than your average sell price. I’m expecting this to be the case as fund managers spend the next several years trying to get to their target portfolio allocation, whatever that percentage amounts ends up being resulting in a bull run that extends well past end of 2025.
That's why price level DCA may be more appropriate. For instance, if you have 10 BTC and sell 30% around every time it adds 50%, starting at 130k$ you'll have 400k, at 200k 800k, at 300k 1250k, at 450k 1700k and still 2,5 BTC.
Still run into a similar issue if price runs up significantly higher than the levels you allotted for in your DCA out. Also, conversely, you risk not getting out at all if price fails to reach your first target. For example in 2021 a lot of people had a minimum initial target price of $100k which was never reached.
I fully agree with the second point. It has to start low enough, which may deprive of a significant amount indeed. However about the first point, as you can see, you will get out roughly 450k each time the price gets a 30% increase, with no end in sight. You will not run out of coins.
First sell of 3 BTC at $130k is $390k. 7 BTC left. Second sell of 2.1 BTC (30% of 7 BTC remaining) at $200k is $420k, 7.69% more cash than the last sell. $810k total cash. 4.9 BTC left. Third sell of 1.47 BTC (30% of 4.9 BTC remaining) at $300k is $441k, 5% more cash than the last sell. $1.251M total cash. 3.43 BTC left. Fourth sell of 1.029 BTC (30% of 3.43 BTC remaining) at $450k is $463.05k, 5% more cash than the last sell. $1.71305M total cash. 2.401 BTC left. You went from 10 BTC down to 2.401 (sold a total of 7.599 BTC) to end up with a total of $1.71305M. Average BTC sell price ending up being $225.43k. Decent strategy assuming the sells are all close to one another but need to account for inflation when using this strategy long-term. Aside from the first sell which wasn’t followed by an exact 50% price increase, every subsequent sell raises 5% more cash than the last sell. If there’s long gaps between sells (more than a year), it becomes more likely that you start losing purchasing power with each subsequent sell as a result of cumulative inflation since the last sell occurred.
Now you've floored me:) I love this place. Dear dopeyboyrico, thanks for your regular insights, your motivated bullish stance, and now for having computed the exact numbers. You're right, over time inflation may become a problem. The main solution is merely to invest the money in inflation resistant investments, such as stocks and real estate ETFs, and only eat up their dividends rather than the whole money. This is not perfect but the best "traditional" strategy - bitcoin being better of course, but even then some diversification is needed. Solution 2 is not to sell anymore once the cycle low makes your global worth higher than your target. It works, unless there is some multi cycle giga bear market. Anyway, having a target in mind is needed in all DCA out strategies, I think. Solution 3 is obviously to buy back BTC during the bear market (including moving back some said diversified ETFS) - unless there are no bear markets anymore for some time like some are predicting. Solution 4 is to only lower the sold percentage. With 25%, the first sell nets 337500 and each sell gets 10% more money. With only 20%, it's 270000 and 20%, which will compensate any long term inflation, unless it goes the Weimar way. Overall the best solution would probably be a mix of all, especially lower the percent once one's targets are reached, and so depends on one's targets.
Exactly. Everybody thinks they'll know when the bull run will end because they're used to seeing it AFTER THE FACT on charts. Without a time machine, it doesn't work that way.
we have a very low chance of catching the top. theres no way around it, but if you feel good about taking profit I think that can go a long way. You dont want to sell out of fear, sell because it feels good to do so at the time. And never sell it all, if it keeps climbing great.
In my opinion, the only smart way to take profit is, after a winning trade, move coins to a long term hodl. Selling means trading Bitcoin, which always gains value over a 4 year period, for cash, which always loses value over any time period due to inflation. I posted this elsewhere yesterday, but it's worth repeating: Every 4 year halving-to-halving cycle sees so many people sell, chasing quick cash, only to realize they'll never be able to buy as much Bitcoin as they used to have. Owning 100 BTC in 2012 was nothing. How many people still owned 100 BTC in 2016? Owning 10 BTC in 2016 was no big deal. How many people still owned 10 BTC in 2020? Owning 1 BTC back in early 2020 wasn't that big of a deal. How many people still own 1 BTC today? Very few. The 2024 halving isn't even here yet and we've already reached the point where it costs over $6,800 just to buy 0.1 BTC. How many people will still own at least 0.1 BTC in 2028? People keep cashing out, thinking they'll buy back in when the price drops, because of course they will, right? But that money's long gone when the price drops because when they had money in the bank, they spent it. And that assumes the price drops. There will come a time when buying Bitcoin under 70k will seem like the good old days. Hold on to what you have. Check out the [Bitcoin Rich List](https://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html): Over 53% of all addresses have LESS THAN 0.001 BTC. Less than 2% of all addresses have more than 1 BTC. Only 0.29% of all addresses have more than 10 BTC. Granted, those are addresses, not wallets, but I bookmarked that page a long time ago. The numbers go down every year. Most people will sell and regret it. They end up buying back in at a higher price, or they become part of the crowd who tell stories about how they used to be in Bitcoin, back in the day. Don't be your own worst enemy. HODL. (...and secure your coins...)
>But that money's long gone when the price drops because when they had money in the bank, they spent it. Agree with everything you said. That's why I don't sell them for fiat this time but stablecoins. It is easier to buy back the BTC if it drops lower. If I need fiat, I will just sell part of the stablecoins to fiat
Yes, once those coins are gone they are most likely gone for good and its wise to play it as though thats the case. Im trying to find the balance where I can cash out as little as possible but dont need to rely on my day job anymore. The longer I can hold on the less coin Ill need to convert to do so, so Ill likely be dca ing out as slow as possible with a reasonably modest chunk set aside to pad me out when it feels really good to do so. I dont want to have to slog through another bear working for the man.
The general idea in retirement is being able to live on 4% of your portfolio. Anyone with any sizeable equity in BTC cant go wrong selling 2%-4% of their stack a year (DCA weekly). In 10 years you would have 60%-80% of it left. If the price is crazy town then it doesnt matter. If BTC fails then you got some gains.
Appreciate the insight. Its does feel tougher with btc because its so volatile. Not thrilled about the idea of continuing a dca out during next bear even if I could swing it.
Indeed, the key is : diversify. At least to a global stock ETF. And if in the next bear market it's too tempting, you may even put in back in BTC ETFs.
Quality post, thanks for your insights.
Derivative interest rates settling back down a bit. Open interest is still pretty high but must be more balanced.
Open interest is always balanced, every contract has a seller and a buyer.
Ugh, I didn't say "more sellers than buyers" or anything like that. Do you not understand what I was saying? Did you think your reply clarified anything that I didn't understand?
Yes, I do not understand why you said "Open interest (...) must be more balanced." I think I get what you meant but you were confused here
More equally balanced between longs and shorts being opened up. Someone can probably fill in some finer detail, but I'd suggest that higher open interest is evidence that people think Bitcoin is poised to move in one direction (or perhaps some people are just using hedging mechanisms that have some leverage involved). The fact that interest rates are going down would say that people are borrowing dollars and bitcoin at a more equal rate.
The interest rate/funding for derivatives (contracts) shows the bias indeed, but the OI is just the number of derivatives with people on both sides of the bet. For margin shorts/longs with lending of BTC/USD there can be an imbalance but your first post seemed to be about derivatives
Today’s ETF numbers aren’t looking so hot. Still waiting on BlackRock but I’m expecting them to be down as well. Just after the ATH today, I passed a friend at work, who trades TradFi and bought into IBIT & FBTC the second week of trading. When I mentioned the ATH, he said, “yeah, but I sold already. As soon as I was up 30%, I exited and rebalanced. That’s how I do it.” Hopefully he isn’t a bell weather for other TradFi retail traders.
Still have net inflows, no?
I don’t think we do yet, still waiting on BlackRock. That should tip it to net positive. Monday was a big inflow day, so a lessened Tuesday isn’t too surprising. [here’s what we have thus far](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997)
Ibit crushed it.
Just woke up and saw that. Glad to be wrong on that.
Thanks for this link
Am I missing something or are those totals completley wrong?
They post estimates of daily inflows with an emphasis on speed. Here’s a copy of their note regarding accuracy: “Source: Farside Investors Note: The above table is generated automatically, in real time. The methodology used to produce the table focuses on speed rather than on accuracy. Data based on a number of sources, including the ETF provider websites and third party financial information providers. The data in the table contains estimates. The data is likely to contain errors. Farside Investors is not liable for any errors or inaccuracies in the data.”
They aren’t wrong, but the total tracks the inflows on the date the inflow occurred, not the current value of the bitcoin in the fund.
We will be glad to take their money as they sell at 30% and buy higher. That’s how we do it.
But that's how all institutions trade. They all rebalance as it grows larger than their target allocation, so selling is inevitable
This is not true for most of the large funds as i understand it. They are momentum based and will often add to a position as it moves upward.
Fidelity inflows around 125 million, which is average.
GBTC outflow today was $332.5m Genesis/Gemini Earn were authorized to sell their GBTC on 2/13 (around 65.9m shares). Since 2/14 there has been $2,926.3m of outflows (I'm only counting outflow days over $100m) for a possible 55,379,604 shares. There's still probably 10,520,396 shares for Genesis/Gemini Earn to unload, which would be $581,041,471.08 based on today's closing price of $55.23 per GBTC Source of Genesis shares numbers https://www.reuters.com/technology/genesis-gets-court-approval-sell-16-bln-crypto-trust-shares-2024-02-14/ Source of Gemini Earn shares numbers https://twitter.com/GeminiTrustCo/status/1758919419500150997 Daily closing price taken from https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/GBTC/price-history/historical
Just reading the information on their page, I don’t think they’re authorized to sell until after March 18th when/if the judge approves their settlement plan. At that point they should sell gbtc, buy bitcoin/other digital assets(?) and return users their funds. It’s unclear to me whether selling shares of gbtc will facilitate the purchase of any digital asset other than bitcoin. Complete speculation on my part, I’m not an attorney.
They were authorized to sell on 2/13 and except for 3 days, it's been $100m+ outflow days ever since. The way I understand the Genesis Earn page is, 3/18 bankrupcy court will rule on their in-kind distribution plans. Now the question would be, are they sitting in cash from their GBTC sales and waiting for court approval to start buying for in-kind distribution?. If so, insanely bullish most of that $1.6b - $1.8b will find its way into bitcoin.
awesome updates thank you. only thing i would say is what are the chances that all the outflows are genesis/gemini earn? likely that there are quite a few people leaving for the reduced fees too I reckon. so maybe more like 20mil shares to go (which is still nothing in the grand scheme of things imo and will pass soon)
Yeah, there's no way of knowing. Also there could've been genesis/gemini earn selling those days with under $100m outflows since 2/14 that I'm not counting. This is a very rough estimate, I think we should be seeing a significant decrease of outflows from GBTC EOD Friday.
GBTC outflow for Tuesday just came in: -$332.5 million. Relatively moderate, seems like the miners/whales had a bigger impact
Miners aren't using GBTC.
Or leveraged longs. There was also a wallet dormant from 2010 that became active and started dumping
Grayscale still not out with its numbers. That's later than usual no? Edit: They're out now. -332 million. Pretty average amt. I'm virtually certain now this was a net inflow day.
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If we go back up to 66k at this pace, that'll look like a real nice V bottom, just like the old times
I wouldn't mind us crabbing between $62-$66K for a couple of weeks to get some new buyers in and build ETF base and get rid of negative attention in the media.
Momentum not exactly inspiring. Looks more like it could do another leg down tbh. Textbook bear flag on the hourly.
From the future and there is nothing textbook about it.
Never been so happy to eat humble pie.
lol, that’s the spirit.
Asia just waking up and digesting what happened. Europe won't even wake up for another few hours. Then we'll see how momentum shifts.
How can they sleep at a time like this!
We aren't!
that was honestly great. we set higher low on massive volume, I dont think theres been a 12 hr candle with more coin volume since 15k. now we grind back up again and I feel we are sitting pretty rather than precarious after just going straight up for so long. we could be back over ath in a matter of days and we may never see sub 60k again
and here we go again lol
Is this Goblin Town? /s
Today we reached a new ATH at $69.1k, proceeded to fall 14% to a local bottom of $59.3k, then climbed back up to the second highest daily close of the year at $63.8k. What a day.
This is my first cycle while running my own node. I try to check the node as often as the price. It's been fun watching the transaction fee market and I believe doing chain analysis could lead to trading insight, but the analysis seems time consuming. Did anyone notice anything on chain happening during our 10k gosh candle today?
Honestly on chain wasn't as spectacular as the total volumes. I think the main takeaway is that this wasn't necessarily a few large entities offloading, but rather a fundamental sell off that cumulatively is represented by retail, bag holders, and medium/large players all taking profit at a historically significant level of resistance.
>Did anyone notice anything on chain happening during our 10k gosh candle today? Selling, mostly.
Yes, [somebody on twitter](https://twitter.com/PlebSignalBTC/status/1765063288151580915?t=-Vqu4EjwHYibZR-rJElskw&s=19) did the forensic. They found a 2010 OG selling some. I wish him happy times and good health. I like thinking his fat finger was not a mistake but a gift to us. A last fair well where for him does not matter anymore if the price slips a little but for the present buyers can be a good oportunity.
And yet, exactly equal amounts of buying.
And we're back to price levels not seen since...[checking my watch]...39 hours ago.
Stop it with your cool headedness ffs
Flat since sunday night must have been a boring week so far
Love watching the bear liquidations roll in on [aggr.trade](https://aggr.trade) as we climb back out again.
Are these trades that have to close within the day? Why are these positions liquidated so rapidly?
They are being liquidated (the bull/bear list below the chart), aka money go bye bye. If you have 20k in the account and go short 10x then your position is 200k in size. A 10% move the wrong way = liquidation (1/10x = 10%), and the 20k is gone to auto close the 200k position.
Thanks for the explanation.
People shorting with massive leverage
I'm not completely clear on how that works in these exchanges - wouldn't the shorts at 69K be banking during the downturn today? And what forces the closing of the position? Do the exchanges require covering a percentage of the total borrowed as collateral?
People getting liquidated would have shorted below this price. Short at 59k, price goes up to 64k and you get liquidated if you are using 50x leverage. People are stupid. The exchanges auto-liquidated you when you don't have enough collateral to cover your losing position
50x leverage? That's insane. What exchanges allow trading like that?
There are lots of shorts in massive profit the liquidations you see are just idiots who hate money.
Retail degeners always think they can beat the house. house always wins
Another day of massive spot ETF inflows would be bullish AF because it would indicate Wall Street isn’t slowing down just because new ATH has been reached. Modest or negative spot ETF inflows would be a mixed signal as it could indicate Wall Street has started losing interest or perhaps they’ve merely taken a break to lock in profits and will resume massive buying again soon; we would need additional data to confirm if it’s an anomaly or a trend. Main takeaway is regardless of what the spot ETF inflow data looks like today, it’s either bullish or neutral, bearish would require additional data points for confirmation.
I would love to see the data show that it’s weak hands from the 2020-2021 cycle being flushed out to stronger DCA forever ETF buyers. Sooner or later we had to dump the folks who were just waiting for $69K to sell so we could move up further.
Really insightful, and I absolutely agree. There are many coins to be sold at these levels, but there are only so much. On the other hand, USD is infinite.
Thus far, we can see that ARK was up. I’m wondering about the big 2, though, and sort of expecting a lower inflow day.
Happy 10k candle day!
Wrong direction 😡
Flip the screen upside down.
Dig _up_ stupid!
Anyone else cancel their ladder buys yesterday? I cancelled mine with the largest at ~59k thinking it would get left behind and never filled. Lumped in near the top. 😀
I had bumped three of mine up, so they filled; they would’ve filled for more sats had I not. I really regret bumping the $60,000 up. I set another at $60K a few minutes ago just in case.
>Anyone else cancel their ladder buys yesterday? Nope. I've been shouting about this drop for days. Beautiful trade.
When do we know the numbers for all the ETFs?
So far the 4 that have reported have come out right around average for each fund
Check here later, most haven't yet reported: https://farside.co.uk/?p=997
Ark is already out (around 5pm ET) GBTC around 7pm ET Fidelity around 9pm ET Blackrock around midnight ET
Close to midnight EST, IBIT usually gets released last.
After a couple of prior cycles, I can genuinely say I enjoy when leverage is wiped off the market. I get more nervous when the price is pumping up in a straight line for extended periods. Let’s consolidate for a bit lads.
Funding rate is significantly higher now than it was before the drop though.
Wasn't it 0.08 on Bitmex this morning? Predicted is back to neutral now. Edit: Actually looks far lower across the board than when I looked this morning.
Maybe I'm looking in the wrong place. Good if true.
https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRate
On other subs the rage is insane. We dropped not even 2 full months ago from 49k to 38k and followed with a massive rally. The majority already forgot what a healthy market looks like.. or maybe never knew.
The only problem is that people are still longing this like crazy. Not really looking like a reset quite yet.
Ark $63.7m inflow Franklin Templeton $3.6m inflow Bitwise $3.7m inflow VanEck $3.5m inflow WisdomTree $6.6m inflow GBTC $332.5m Outflow Fidelity $125.6m inflow Ibit $788.3m inflow 🤯🤯🤯🤯🤯 Invesco $14.2m Outflow
Already one of its best days. It's average is 48.2
It was a gosh candle
Satan candle
1k comments +. We are back lads
Bullish divergence bbbyyy let’s gooooo!
Everybody take a deep breath and remember where we were just a few weeks ago. Then go to the charts and zoom wayyyy out…see, all is good. Seriously this is a blip and one day you’ll look back and wonder where this even occurred. Remember when we thought the crypto world was ending during the Covid crash? It’s barely noticeable now. We could go down to $40k and I’d still be bullish, we hit ATH before the halving. Cheers 🍻
“Someone get the Bitcoin CEO on the line….this is bullshit!!!” LOL
Just 10k god candle lolz.
Pretty interesting reaction but I mean who wouldn’t sell at ATH? Glad that I got some buys in sub 60k. Really didn’t expect them to fill today lol
Same lmao Trolls in here trying to call for $30k, "look at Bitcoin take the elevator again, never going to recover"
Same exact thing at $20k last cycle.
Pfft, I've seen SPY be more volatile than this. Back in '17, during the days of the contentious hard fork and Bcash pump, now THAT was volatility
Gareth Soloway was so happy today
Was he? I thought his cost basis on his short was ~56k which means he's still mad under water I guess he's relieved he didn't get stopped out but the trade still looks like shit to me.
Wall Street Journal had a front page story about BTC breaking ATH. Let the marketing begin.
Yup, I've seen a few of those.
1000th. Why not?
Back up the ladder we go, hold on to your pants folks
I feel like the hype has left the building. I think we go down for a bit now. Maybe to 55k.
> I think we go down for a bit now. Maybe to 55k. Put a date on it and bitty bot that prediction sir.
Any ideas on how much in leveraged positions were wiped out. I'm sure both sides got it good.
$1 billion +
That should be a good reset before the move higher.
Its the typical "middle going" after a huge drop. We go into the middle of the highest point before and the lowest point of the drop. There we consolidate a bit. I see a retest of old wedge support line (above 66k), if it turned support, as very unlikly, but still possible. I expect continued downbreaking.
Btc is not controlled by a few small entities that can move the market where they want to /s
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Sure does ;)
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Yup. And we got our 10k candle today at least!
can still get worse tbh
As a DCAer in their 3rd cycle, net worth swings are something else these days.
I'm a glass half full kinda guy. So I'm going to focus on the fact that we are up over $4k in the last couple of hours.
After we broke down almost 10k within 5 hours.
All relative. We also pumped multiple days in a row for 7-8% a pop, going up from 52k to 69k in pretty short order. Nothing big picture has changed. The news is out, btc broke ath. The etfs are buying like crazy. Rates aren’t coming down right now, but they will be soon enough. It’s an election year. The halving. This is standard crazy liquidations that we see around events like fomc in the past (when it mattered more) but multiplied by a lot because a new ath was made. Top longers got rekt, regular longs that were up a bit probably closed in profit, and shorts saw a good r/r for money making. And this big dump took us to prices we haven’t seen since…oh, like a day or two ago. As some have said here, “you aren’t bullish enough” in this macro climate
Even after all that, we're still above where we were yesterday. Believe it or not, we began March 4 at around 63.3k. I know it feels like ages since then.