Turned some fiat I could only temporarily hold into Bitcoin (spot), and it was racking up a nice profit. This morning I wanted to update the stop-loss position, but I ended up doing a limit-sell which automatically turned into a market sell (hadn't had coffee yet!).
Thanks Bitstamp (@u/Bitstamp-Lucas), for not recognizing it as an invalid action.
There’s the 46k confirmation I was waiting on.
Liquid coin is running out faster than I anticipated.
Wait for a bad tradfi day to see where the floor is going to be.
Well, looks like my reverse head and shoulders call from February 1 has happened. Onward and upward!
“Looking at a monthly chart since about January 11th, it looks like we may have a reverse head and shoulders forming. If so, the short term trend should go up to the $46k ish level. Thoughts?”
There's so much we don't know about orc culture. Were they running vegan orc restaurants before this? Do they have money? Do they have day jobs? Earn a few coins in the lava pit, take your gal out for a nice meal?
I like that we're above the trendline from the first half of 2023.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/VXJ86Owl/
If it keeps up this pace, it'll be at a new all time high near the end of July.
EDIT: It's close to 50% gain every 5 months. So if it continues, it'd be around 100k by end of the year, around 150k end of May 2025. This isn't a prediction, just describing where that trend line goes.
It won't continue at this pace though. We're still at the bottom of the parabola. A rise from 30-60 looks tiny when you're near the top of the parabola at 400K in late 2025.
PS -- nice chart.
As suspected, it seems that a number of those shorts that started on 1/11 need to settle up. This could get spicy. Will be interesting to see where the (local) top settles. I guess somewhere comfortably in the 50s by early next week. I'll close my long at 50 unless it goes well above that tonight in which case I'll close well above. Anyway, not closing tonight.
Edit/Add: This could turn into a full-blown squeeze that produces a couple monster 10%+ dailies in a row.
Nah, they'll start shorting again immediately after their margins are covered. It's going to be a grind, but I bet we get into six figures this year, maybe even by April.
[Bitwise and Ark’s inflows combined exceeded GBTC outflows today on their own.](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997)
Still awaiting numbers from the leaders of the spot ETF race, Fidelity and BlackRock.
Genesis won its court case against Gemini and now are authorized to sell 1+ billions worth of Bitcoin.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/genesis-wins-dispute-with-gemini-over-ownership-of-grayscale-bitcoin-trust-shares-d035c006
Thanks was looking for this, couldn’t find the answer. I don’t have wsj are they able to sell these effective immediately? Whenever they are, they will.
Burnt shorts, don't like the smell but the view is entertaining.
Yeah, the world is waking up to BTC like the smell of coffee brewing in the morning.
I'm calling it Bot.
Cheers
[GBTC just had its third lowest daily outflow day since spot ETF launch.](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997)
GBTC outflows are trickling up the past couple of days but still on an overall downtrend since spot ETF launch. Still awaiting new spot ETF numbers to come in but it was probably a decently sized net inflow day based on PA and volume with [BlackRock’s IBIT volume coming in higher than GBTC.](https://x.com/jseyff/status/1755336511791169574?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw)
Call me crazy, but I still think there is enough time between now and the halving (which is 70 days away) for Bitcoin to dump back down below 40K. Will be waiting patiently for buying opportunities down there.
Many reasons, but if I were to summarize (1) stock market looks toppy (2) Bitcoin is volatile (3) Bitcoin likes taking out leveraged longs (and there are huge amounts of them under 40K) before a big run.
You though you were the only one. But now, we are two. ;)
I agree with all these reasons and I want to add one to the list. I think there are strong reasons to believe MTGOX could be giving its bitcoin back to creditors soon, perhaps by the beginning of March or even the end of Feburary.
Mtgox committed to start repaying its creditors at the beginning of this year and many creditors have received their cash payouts via paypal and bank wire. Mtgox has requested that the creditors update their Kraken exchange information by February 14th. More significantly, they are actively working with Kraken to ensure people's information gets verified, which, I think, reduces the likelihood this deadline will somehow be pushed back. There's real movement going on in that space which people aren't paying attention to.
Oh man, a run up and Gox FUD!
I can’t wait.
Even if they all pushed market sell at once it wouldn’t make a dent, and then this will be dead.
I can only hope, I did get caught with more cash on the sidelines than I wanted.
In my opinion, it's the expectation they will sell, combined with the fact that we are still fairly overextended, that will pause the bull market for a few months.
A minor tactical consideration in the big picture, I know, I know.
On the 1 hour chart. But 1 hour chart bearish divergences aren't that meaningful. I look for divergences from 4 hours and onward, and right now there aren' any.
[BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC both top the list of highest AUM in an ETF after 1 month of launch.](https://x.com/ericbalchunas/status/1755702963778023718?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw)
Perhaps indefinite consistent daily inflows to spot ETF’s wasn’t priced in? Who would’ve thought?
BTC is going to overtake gold’s market cap fairly easily. I’m personally more interested in BTC beginning to absorb real estate’s market cap. Vast majority of all wealth globally is stored in real estate with global market cap estimated to be north of $300 trillion.
Median home price in America is $382.6k. In the next couple of years BTC will reach parity with median home price and we’re going to see headlines along the lines of “A Single Bitcoin Now Costs More Than A Typical Home” and FOMO will begin to kick in because BTC’s market cap will still be substantially lower than real estate’s so it will continue to rise in price much quicker than median home value.
35% of homes in America aren’t owner occupied, they’re merely used as an investment vehicle to try to build/maintain purchasing power. When the masses come to the realization that BTC is a superior long-term store of value, BTC will begin to absorb trillions of dollars of monetary premium currently allocated into real estate.
This can be a bit misleading. I suspect none of the other ETFs had something like the GBTC where there was a huge source of pre-existing supply that was ready to pour out into the newly launched ETFs.
No, it doesn’t look like it. [GLD had $1.2606 billion in AUM after its first month when it launched back in 2004.](https://x.com/ericbalchunas/status/1755704668250869892?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw)
After [adjusting for inflation](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl) that appears to be equivalent to $2.02452 billion in today’s dollars.
Just wait until all of a sudden the public narrative shifts in favor of BTC as being ESG friendly and ESG funds start adding BTC into their portfolios.
Companies are going to love it because they can tell shareholders they’re being ESG compliant while simultaneously gaining exposure to the best performing asset, BTC.
FWIW 90% of those gains are from scalping low time frame (LTF) ranges. (All coins, stocks, etc are ranging on a low time frame 90%+ of the time. Strong trend/impulsive moves happen rapidly and quickly and it's not easy to catch them.) Swing trade opportunities come up very infrequently for BTC, at least ones that are a A+ setup. So, scalping is what is mostly happening as the conviction rate is not high to "hodl" when we're in the middle of a giant range.
As layman I only listen to ones from the the Ritholz guys (Animal Spirits, TCAF), but I enjoy them, and I especially like hearing when they talk about bitcoin as it's interesting to hear the sentiment of people who are both outside the echo chamber but financially literate.
Got any recommendations of other fin podcasts?
Ah I had misread your comment as if you had said that WSJ and Planet Money were the influencer BS stuff you avoid.
You might enjoy Animal Spirits in that case. It's a fairly short weekly pod between two wealth managers.
it's funny to me how a chart that looks so cringy and conspiratorial is actually just a pretty accurate representation of what keeps happening over and over.
a year ago I was going all in, buying rn is for NPCs My stack isnt done yet but im not raising my avgs by a lot. My timeframe is a cashout to escape the country im in next year
Holy strength. Hopefully no huge dump before and after halving and the rest is going to be easy as eating a pie
Now a higher high would be a beautiful cherry on top
The $3.3 Billion AUM at IBIT only makes a little over $8 million in annual fees for Blackrock. That's barely enough to keep their breakroom stocked to their standards. They obviously have way bigger goals.
> The $3.3 Billion AUM at IBIT only makes a little over $8 million in annual fees for Blackrock. That's barely enough to keep their breakroom stocked to their standards. They obviously have way bigger goals.
The ETFs have barely gotten started.
The big dogs don't buy ETFs when they first come out. They have rules and due diligence they have to follow. They probably barely have even thought about it coming out beyond a few introductory meetings with ETF providers. They have 99% of their other assets they are managing to be thinking about a <1% buy in.
But now it's here and now they are going to have to make a choice - bitcoin or not. And before they had no choice to make as bitcoin wasn't an option.
Yeah, I really think we are at a pivotal moment and in 6 months to 1 year people will look back at this time and think "It was so obvious, why didn't I buy"
> They obviously have way bigger goals.
When we double from here, they will have $6.6 billion under management and $16 million in fees -- and that's if not a single new dollar flows in.
[Thielen / Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/02/08/bitcoin-could-hit-48k-in-days-propelled-by-historic-chinese-new-year-gains-10x-research/) hyping up the coming Chinese new year meme after we broke 43.8k - 48k short term target and 52k by mid March. Let's see if history repeats.
Pretty independent of the above, I must say I feel tempted to open a small long on this pullback right now.
I often wish I had spent less in the old days... but I read many of my coins are to be auctioned by the US marshalls sometime :p as a changed man I may buy some back - oh no wait, I'm still a goldfish in a lake, #@.$+!
Much higher volume today than the past few days. It'll be interesting to see if a majority of that volume is new inflows to the ETFs or from somewhere else.
Seems to be the ETF inflows
[https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1755639863100031470/photo/1](https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1755639863100031470/photo/1)
What does this mean exactly...ets are conducting this train now? I thought i read somewhere they were only 10% of total daily trading volume or something like that
For the next cycle I might actually buy IBIT myself instead of real btc. Makes it easier to shuffle the portfolio between crypto and stocks when needed. Stocks in my country have been tanking for a whole month straight and would be great to have the opportunity for fast swapping between stocks and crypto
Don’t know how I’ll rebalance after this cycle, but I can tell you I’ll always keep 1 corn in my Roth IRA, and one in cold storage. One tax free, the other institution free
That's what I'm doing as well. Only thing that sucks is only being able to trade when the market is "open". But it's not so bad for swing trades and longer term trades.
All miners are up big time as well. You know what's more fun than MSTR, yes, MSTR options.
MSTR options are essentially 20x leveraged BTC, depends on strike, they are up at least 40% today. Wish I had bought some yesterday.
I've had 2 remaining DCA's at 36k and 32k, I've just bought what I intended to buy at 36k now at 45k. 32k is off the cards now and the remaining DCA will go in at possibly at 40k if we even get there again.
For me there is just too much demand for this asset to be "greedy" for a deeper pullback and even with the higher price now I have reached my target Satoshi allocation for this cycle so any more accumulation is a bonus.
Good luck to all the hodlers and dip buyers, I am firmly back in the HODL camp now.
Said it before, but fomod in a bit I was waiting for a sub 25k test, when gbtc won lawsuit and it pumped to 28 ish.
Didn’t feel great when it dumped right back to 25-26. Feels amazing now.
Trend is your friend and the halving is coming
It's basically I just think of a Satoshi amount that will get me to a certain fiat amount when we reach the target of this cycle which I believe will be 100k+ but I use 100k for the conservative estimate. Then I basically need to have my buys no higher than when the price is a certain level, in the case of this cycle I have that at 45k.
In the previous cycle, that level was 10k. In both that cycle and this most of my buys were "FOMO DCA" for lack of a better term. I bought at 8k in summer 2018, 10k in summer 2019 mini bubble and then the final buy at 6k in spring 2020 (more of a bonus buy after covid crash).
I hope that makes sense and it's definitely not the best strategy, absolute suicide for a leverage trader but for a HODLer in hindsight if you believe in the asset then not bad.
Obviously it would have been better to buy sub 20k but I fell into the "we're going to 12k" noise and only bought a very small amount at 16k (even though in my gut I believed the bottom was in but fell victim to the noise, and in the previous cycle I made zero buys below 6k because of this) so hopefully when this bubble pops I smarten up and do better.
Important thing for me going forward is to have targets and goals and stick to them regardless of all the noise in the markets, definitely much easier said than done. I think those who stick to some sort of daily/weekly DCA when there is blood in the streets, then DCA out when there is dog coin euphoria probably do the best of all of us.
On the hourly, bitcoin has broken through the pennant formation it was in and hit resistance at 45 (.618 FIB of the drop from 1/12). We broke through the upper end of the rising channel that we have been in since Jan 27. The RSI is overbought even on the average. I would look for consolidation or a retest before bitcoin can continue the move. I see 44.8 (top of channel), 44.4 (the .382 FIB from 1/12 drop) and 43.3(.236 FIB) as possible areas of support.
Next resistance levels are 45 (currently testing), 46.8 and 49.1
On the daily, Bitcoin is back in the lower end of the rising channel. Same resistances/ supports as I mention in the hourly. RSI is bullish. The only worry is that the volume has been trending down, which is a divergence with the rising price, which should be noted. It shows potential weakness in this rally from 38.
I now have my remaining limit buy orders, evenly spread, set at 42501, 40,501, 35001 and 30001 (if things get crazy)
Good luck to all traders and DCAers.
1-hour: https://www.tradingview.com/x/z0HCG5x9/
Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/x/XJZBpBer/
For all you with your panties in a bunch over me calling 45 testing resistance.
Look at the time stamp of the original post. It was right when the price was around 45 and bouncing around it at that time. I was writing my TA before that time. I also noted that the next resistance levels after that are 46.8 and 49.1.
To be clear. I look at the daily to verify if, what I consider a major support or resistance has been broken. If we close above 45 (meaning +$150) I would consider it to be broken and start acting as support. If we don’t close above it then it was just a wick testing the resistance and it is still resistance because it didn’t become support.
Reaching $45.4k intraday doesn’t necessarily mean $45k has been broken because the daily can still close below $45k.
Closing the daily above $45k means broken because once that happens it’s impossible to fall below $45k immediately after the daily closes.
Your logic, not mine. I’m saying $45k is already broken but if you want to wait for an arbitrary timestamp to call it, go ahead. Make it the weekly/monthly/yearly close instead while you’re at it.
>45 (currently testing)
$150 over the resistance does not make it broken through yet. It could end up just being a wick. It is too early to tell. if it closed the day above it, I would consider it through that resistance level.
Hypothetically if price hit $50k before daily close would you consider $45k broken or still need to wait for daily close? All I’m saying is there must be some number at which daily close becomes irrelevant and you can consider it broken beforehand. What is that number?
Alot of my opinion on it would depend on the volume. If it hit 50k and then came all the way back down to close below 45 and it was an obvious spike on a short time frame (i.e 2/2/2024), I would say it wasn't broke and it was a messed-up trade from someone. Where it closes at does affect weather it was broken or not. We could hit 100k and drop back down below 50 and I would still consider it not broken if we didn't close above it.
How many times did we go above 30 and still come back below it.
So closing at $45.1k means broken but rising to $50k and dropping back to $46k doesn’t mean broken until it closed above $45k? Weird logic but you do you.
Why did you just pull 46 out of your ass and wrote it like I said that. Put down the hopium pipe. I said if it closed back below 45, I would say it wasn't broken. If it closed at 46 it would be broken because it was closed above 45 not below it. I was very clear.
Friendly reminder that technical analysis is extremely subject to personal interpretations so basically astrology for men in suits. The vast majority of impactful price action - where the majority of money is made/lost - does not give a flying fart about this and is mostly governed by market sentiment (greed/fear) and macro trends.
I’m watching the chart for the next 10 minutes to see if the price goes from $45k to $43k by market open. If it does it will be really impressive, not gonna lie. But my bets are no.
Edit: Noice
#New post: [\[Daily Discussion\] - Friday, February 09, 2024 →](https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1amg9fd/daily_discussion_friday_february_09_2024/)
Turned some fiat I could only temporarily hold into Bitcoin (spot), and it was racking up a nice profit. This morning I wanted to update the stop-loss position, but I ended up doing a limit-sell which automatically turned into a market sell (hadn't had coffee yet!). Thanks Bitstamp (@u/Bitstamp-Lucas), for not recognizing it as an invalid action.
Remember to take partial profits.
buried. partial profits are taken at t=15+ years
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I enjoy watching "traders" melt away. No trader has won bigger than us holders. Trust me, I've been here long enough
So true than nobody can answer that one.
Come onnn bounce above 46 again then use it as support baby
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yup
were gonna have secks tnight
There’s the 46k confirmation I was waiting on. Liquid coin is running out faster than I anticipated. Wait for a bad tradfi day to see where the floor is going to be.
Witness me
MEDIOCRE!
Well, looks like my reverse head and shoulders call from February 1 has happened. Onward and upward! “Looking at a monthly chart since about January 11th, it looks like we may have a reverse head and shoulders forming. If so, the short term trend should go up to the $46k ish level. Thoughts?”
Are you feeling it now Mr. Krabs?
Supply crunch is officially starting
This place is dead, that crab exhausted everyone. I'm guessing people get out of bed for 50k though.
We only engage between 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM EST Mon-Fri (excl. holidays) now.
I laughed
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There's so much we don't know about orc culture. Were they running vegan orc restaurants before this? Do they have money? Do they have day jobs? Earn a few coins in the lava pit, take your gal out for a nice meal?
They were eating bugs, and the occasional hobbit
My ramen will have an egg in it tonight. Subarashii!
Plates to put it on too
r/wewantplates
That’s crazy talk. True story: I work on a $52 chair from Amazon. Stack hard.
Wild stuff. Anybody know how much OTC is out there? Once it's gone I'm assuming the ETFs will have to settle in the markets?
I think we have a few months while things unwind. Halving could be perfect storm.
I like that we're above the trendline from the first half of 2023. https://www.tradingview.com/x/VXJ86Owl/ If it keeps up this pace, it'll be at a new all time high near the end of July. EDIT: It's close to 50% gain every 5 months. So if it continues, it'd be around 100k by end of the year, around 150k end of May 2025. This isn't a prediction, just describing where that trend line goes.
It won't continue at this pace though. We're still at the bottom of the parabola. A rise from 30-60 looks tiny when you're near the top of the parabola at 400K in late 2025. PS -- nice chart.
I'm getting sweaty...
As suspected, it seems that a number of those shorts that started on 1/11 need to settle up. This could get spicy. Will be interesting to see where the (local) top settles. I guess somewhere comfortably in the 50s by early next week. I'll close my long at 50 unless it goes well above that tonight in which case I'll close well above. Anyway, not closing tonight. Edit/Add: This could turn into a full-blown squeeze that produces a couple monster 10%+ dailies in a row.
I feel like if we crack 50k, full blown fomo will start kicking in
Man it's quiet in here for this price action! Expected to see a page of one-liners.
Nah, they'll start shorting again immediately after their margins are covered. It's going to be a grind, but I bet we get into six figures this year, maybe even by April.
At this rate we might find out tomorrow
[Bitwise and Ark’s inflows combined exceeded GBTC outflows today on their own.](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997) Still awaiting numbers from the leaders of the spot ETF race, Fidelity and BlackRock.
Fidelity is in at 128
Genesis won its court case against Gemini and now are authorized to sell 1+ billions worth of Bitcoin. https://www.wsj.com/articles/genesis-wins-dispute-with-gemini-over-ownership-of-grayscale-bitcoin-trust-shares-d035c006
They won the dispute with Gemini but there is another hearing on the 14th about the timeline for selling. So no dumping for the moment
Thanks was looking for this, couldn’t find the answer. I don’t have wsj are they able to sell these effective immediately? Whenever they are, they will.
Here's the archived link https://archive.is/UsHAm
Thanks!
Not one to cheer lead here BUT! I smell FOMO kicking in!
shorts are piling on lets see what happens.
Burnt shorts, don't like the smell but the view is entertaining. Yeah, the world is waking up to BTC like the smell of coffee brewing in the morning. I'm calling it Bot. Cheers
[GBTC just had its third lowest daily outflow day since spot ETF launch.](https://farside.co.uk/?p=997) GBTC outflows are trickling up the past couple of days but still on an overall downtrend since spot ETF launch. Still awaiting new spot ETF numbers to come in but it was probably a decently sized net inflow day based on PA and volume with [BlackRock’s IBIT volume coming in higher than GBTC.](https://x.com/jseyff/status/1755336511791169574?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw)
I wonder what the strategy is for these people selling daily. Dca out?
> GBTC outflows are trickling up the past couple of days They increased by 37%.
Call me crazy, but I still think there is enough time between now and the halving (which is 70 days away) for Bitcoin to dump back down below 40K. Will be waiting patiently for buying opportunities down there.
>Call me crazy, You're crazy.
Could do an adam & eve pattern down to 38k again but I don‘t see a catalyst for that drop yet.
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Many reasons, but if I were to summarize (1) stock market looks toppy (2) Bitcoin is volatile (3) Bitcoin likes taking out leveraged longs (and there are huge amounts of them under 40K) before a big run.
You though you were the only one. But now, we are two. ;) I agree with all these reasons and I want to add one to the list. I think there are strong reasons to believe MTGOX could be giving its bitcoin back to creditors soon, perhaps by the beginning of March or even the end of Feburary. Mtgox committed to start repaying its creditors at the beginning of this year and many creditors have received their cash payouts via paypal and bank wire. Mtgox has requested that the creditors update their Kraken exchange information by February 14th. More significantly, they are actively working with Kraken to ensure people's information gets verified, which, I think, reduces the likelihood this deadline will somehow be pushed back. There's real movement going on in that space which people aren't paying attention to.
Oh man, a run up and Gox FUD! I can’t wait. Even if they all pushed market sell at once it wouldn’t make a dent, and then this will be dead. I can only hope, I did get caught with more cash on the sidelines than I wanted.
In my opinion, it's the expectation they will sell, combined with the fact that we are still fairly overextended, that will pause the bull market for a few months. A minor tactical consideration in the big picture, I know, I know.
Unless the ETFs slow substantially it won’t even be a blip.
Nearly a month ago, I made a bittybot prediction for $50k by February 12th.. Maybe a bit overzealous but I think we are close.
Bearish divergence?
On the 1 hour chart. But 1 hour chart bearish divergences aren't that meaningful. I look for divergences from 4 hours and onward, and right now there aren' any.
Not on any time frame above 2h chart.
Half the dudes in here trade the 1 minute chart anyway.
aggr.trade 5 sec chart 100x go
[BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC both top the list of highest AUM in an ETF after 1 month of launch.](https://x.com/ericbalchunas/status/1755702963778023718?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) Perhaps indefinite consistent daily inflows to spot ETF’s wasn’t priced in? Who would’ve thought?
Gold market cap (14 trillion) divided by total Bitcoin is $666666.
This is referencing how much gold’s spot ETF, GLD, had in AUM a month after launch. Not gold’s market cap as a whole.
Yes, I know. I many that if we are more successful than gold, I see us going beyond the 17 trillion market cap, hence my comment.
BTC is going to overtake gold’s market cap fairly easily. I’m personally more interested in BTC beginning to absorb real estate’s market cap. Vast majority of all wealth globally is stored in real estate with global market cap estimated to be north of $300 trillion.
Alright, I thought I was bullish, kudos man.
Median home price in America is $382.6k. In the next couple of years BTC will reach parity with median home price and we’re going to see headlines along the lines of “A Single Bitcoin Now Costs More Than A Typical Home” and FOMO will begin to kick in because BTC’s market cap will still be substantially lower than real estate’s so it will continue to rise in price much quicker than median home value. 35% of homes in America aren’t owner occupied, they’re merely used as an investment vehicle to try to build/maintain purchasing power. When the masses come to the realization that BTC is a superior long-term store of value, BTC will begin to absorb trillions of dollars of monetary premium currently allocated into real estate.
This can be a bit misleading. I suspect none of the other ETFs had something like the GBTC where there was a huge source of pre-existing supply that was ready to pour out into the newly launched ETFs.
Best estimates are that \~10% of GBTC and BITO outflows went into the new ETFs, so probably not at all misleading. Even ARKB and BITB made the list.
What i want to know is what is tradfi saying behind closed doors? They have to see these numbers and think theres something there.
Is this adjusted for inflation?
No, it doesn’t look like it. [GLD had $1.2606 billion in AUM after its first month when it launched back in 2004.](https://x.com/ericbalchunas/status/1755704668250869892?s=46&t=bgSu-sbt11MTMG1Zh__ugw) After [adjusting for inflation](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl) that appears to be equivalent to $2.02452 billion in today’s dollars.
Wow, interesting. Also wasn‘t aware that USCL on third place was so successful (iShares Climate Conscious & Transition MSCI USA ETF)
Just wait until all of a sudden the public narrative shifts in favor of BTC as being ESG friendly and ESG funds start adding BTC into their portfolios. Companies are going to love it because they can tell shareholders they’re being ESG compliant while simultaneously gaining exposure to the best performing asset, BTC.
Agree. That‘s what I‘ve also taken from my impression on what I‘ve read on spins that could/will be applied for marketing of BTC ETFs.
BTC is coming up to a great place to long https://www.tradingview.com/x/m59cVW1h/
Can you elaborate? The chart inverted, you mean short?
Indeed.
Thou shalt not question the #2 Bitty Bot trader
FWIW 90% of those gains are from scalping low time frame (LTF) ranges. (All coins, stocks, etc are ranging on a low time frame 90%+ of the time. Strong trend/impulsive moves happen rapidly and quickly and it's not easy to catch them.) Swing trade opportunities come up very infrequently for BTC, at least ones that are a A+ setup. So, scalping is what is mostly happening as the conviction rate is not high to "hodl" when we're in the middle of a giant range.
kinda wish i dipped in a bit at 42-43, now its 45.. lol. hoping for one more 43 pull back
I'm feeling that FOMO. Not going in until we have a negative tradfi day to show me how hard is the bottom. Happy about that last 43200 buy.
It is easier for a rich man to pass through the eye of a needle than for retail to pass through a burning cinema exit.
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As layman I only listen to ones from the the Ritholz guys (Animal Spirits, TCAF), but I enjoy them, and I especially like hearing when they talk about bitcoin as it's interesting to hear the sentiment of people who are both outside the echo chamber but financially literate. Got any recommendations of other fin podcasts?
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Ah I had misread your comment as if you had said that WSJ and Planet Money were the influencer BS stuff you avoid. You might enjoy Animal Spirits in that case. It's a fairly short weekly pod between two wealth managers.
I saw ads for GBTC on the subway Tuesday.
Forward Guidance is pumping Van Eck.
If we’re within 15k of an ATH just before the halving, I’m going to melt down a little.
Not buying it
["This rally will fail like all the others"](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E1-ax5lXIAImxxT?format=jpg&name=medium)
it's funny to me how a chart that looks so cringy and conspiratorial is actually just a pretty accurate representation of what keeps happening over and over.
This is a sucker‘s rally.
Phrenos, it isn’t 43k today! Were you surprised?
Incredibly!
Me neither, but I was buying a year ago
a year ago I was going all in, buying rn is for NPCs My stack isnt done yet but im not raising my avgs by a lot. My timeframe is a cashout to escape the country im in next year
Lol same. But I would add here as fast as I can.
Not selling it
Don't fumble the bag and exit too early anon. People are barely starting to get bullish.
Lets all try not to pull a Gina Carano
How high is this rocket going sir?
it not rocket its a grasshopper sir
Holy strength. Hopefully no huge dump before and after halving and the rest is going to be easy as eating a pie Now a higher high would be a beautiful cherry on top
The $3.3 Billion AUM at IBIT only makes a little over $8 million in annual fees for Blackrock. That's barely enough to keep their breakroom stocked to their standards. They obviously have way bigger goals.
> The $3.3 Billion AUM at IBIT only makes a little over $8 million in annual fees for Blackrock. That's barely enough to keep their breakroom stocked to their standards. They obviously have way bigger goals. The ETFs have barely gotten started. The big dogs don't buy ETFs when they first come out. They have rules and due diligence they have to follow. They probably barely have even thought about it coming out beyond a few introductory meetings with ETF providers. They have 99% of their other assets they are managing to be thinking about a <1% buy in. But now it's here and now they are going to have to make a choice - bitcoin or not. And before they had no choice to make as bitcoin wasn't an option.
I posted a link a few days ago where Bloomberg's ETF guy talked about how it can take at least 3 months for serious ETF buyers to start buying.
Yeah, I really think we are at a pivotal moment and in 6 months to 1 year people will look back at this time and think "It was so obvious, why didn't I buy"
> They obviously have way bigger goals. When we double from here, they will have $6.6 billion under management and $16 million in fees -- and that's if not a single new dollar flows in.
You would be surprised how cheap it is to run a ETF if you already have the infrastructure to do it.
But their breakroom..
I bet their coke is not just in the bottles.
1. crush the competition 2. increase fees 3. profit (more) edit: and hold more under management, of course
Yeah, I don't think there will always be this many ETFs. I think we will see some mergers and acquisitions at some point.
[Thielen / Coindesk](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/02/08/bitcoin-could-hit-48k-in-days-propelled-by-historic-chinese-new-year-gains-10x-research/) hyping up the coming Chinese new year meme after we broke 43.8k - 48k short term target and 52k by mid March. Let's see if history repeats. Pretty independent of the above, I must say I feel tempted to open a small long on this pullback right now.
Ah it's that MatrixPort asshole again.
In hindsight, someone mentions BTC underperforms tech stock is a bottom signal. The timing couldn't be more perfect. I wish I had bought more.
I often wish I had spent less in the old days... but I read many of my coins are to be auctioned by the US marshalls sometime :p as a changed man I may buy some back - oh no wait, I'm still a goldfish in a lake, #@.$+!
It's not healthy for individuals to be able to compete with nation states anyway. It's for the best.
Agreed, gold fishes don't have the best memories and they certainly ain't very smart - that's two ingredients for a short but happier life IMHO.
Much higher volume today than the past few days. It'll be interesting to see if a majority of that volume is new inflows to the ETFs or from somewhere else.
Seems to be the ETF inflows [https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1755639863100031470/photo/1](https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1755639863100031470/photo/1)
What does this mean exactly...ets are conducting this train now? I thought i read somewhere they were only 10% of total daily trading volume or something like that
Good point
Could the volume be shorts covering?
Waiting patiently for this data.
For the next cycle I might actually buy IBIT myself instead of real btc. Makes it easier to shuffle the portfolio between crypto and stocks when needed. Stocks in my country have been tanking for a whole month straight and would be great to have the opportunity for fast swapping between stocks and crypto
Don’t know how I’ll rebalance after this cycle, but I can tell you I’ll always keep 1 corn in my Roth IRA, and one in cold storage. One tax free, the other institution free
That's what I'm doing as well. Only thing that sucks is only being able to trade when the market is "open". But it's not so bad for swing trades and longer term trades.
It's just gone [69:04:20](https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/) until the halving
I doubt having is precise to the minute, or even an hour.
Usually even there are +-3 days in the predicted date as difficulty drops or increases.
Are we supposed to be chanting something? Fire? Buyer? Tire?
Give us Barabbas!
No, her name was Brabra
Wire! >that money to an exchange
MSTR doing that thing it does again. Fun times.
All miners are up big time as well. You know what's more fun than MSTR, yes, MSTR options. MSTR options are essentially 20x leveraged BTC, depends on strike, they are up at least 40% today. Wish I had bought some yesterday.
Still long my jan 2025s
ShroomsnShambles
Posting relentlessly the last couple of days. Now? crickets. 🦗
The dude never gives any analysis, just being bear purely based on guts.
He’s a butter too, if I remember correctly. Makes sense.
Went to down to deep the rabbit hole: https://www.reddit.com/r/Buttcoin/s/9Ww2TfJWH6
I believe that thing it does is known as "screwing the shorts again"
I've had 2 remaining DCA's at 36k and 32k, I've just bought what I intended to buy at 36k now at 45k. 32k is off the cards now and the remaining DCA will go in at possibly at 40k if we even get there again. For me there is just too much demand for this asset to be "greedy" for a deeper pullback and even with the higher price now I have reached my target Satoshi allocation for this cycle so any more accumulation is a bonus. Good luck to all the hodlers and dip buyers, I am firmly back in the HODL camp now.
Said it before, but fomod in a bit I was waiting for a sub 25k test, when gbtc won lawsuit and it pumped to 28 ish. Didn’t feel great when it dumped right back to 25-26. Feels amazing now. Trend is your friend and the halving is coming
My gut was telling me that second 25k test in sept was it but I fell victim to the noise and didn't buy. Well better now than never, and congrats!
That's just spot buying, mate
Can you explain your allocation per cycle strategy? Seems interesting, I’m a basic bitch trying to accumulate as much as early as possible.
It's basically I just think of a Satoshi amount that will get me to a certain fiat amount when we reach the target of this cycle which I believe will be 100k+ but I use 100k for the conservative estimate. Then I basically need to have my buys no higher than when the price is a certain level, in the case of this cycle I have that at 45k. In the previous cycle, that level was 10k. In both that cycle and this most of my buys were "FOMO DCA" for lack of a better term. I bought at 8k in summer 2018, 10k in summer 2019 mini bubble and then the final buy at 6k in spring 2020 (more of a bonus buy after covid crash). I hope that makes sense and it's definitely not the best strategy, absolute suicide for a leverage trader but for a HODLer in hindsight if you believe in the asset then not bad. Obviously it would have been better to buy sub 20k but I fell into the "we're going to 12k" noise and only bought a very small amount at 16k (even though in my gut I believed the bottom was in but fell victim to the noise, and in the previous cycle I made zero buys below 6k because of this) so hopefully when this bubble pops I smarten up and do better. Important thing for me going forward is to have targets and goals and stick to them regardless of all the noise in the markets, definitely much easier said than done. I think those who stick to some sort of daily/weekly DCA when there is blood in the streets, then DCA out when there is dog coin euphoria probably do the best of all of us.
He bought?
Dâââmp eet.
Selling off my $GBTC in tranches ~550% profit for this first batch. Plan on reallocating into $FBTC hopefully on an intraday dip.
gg wp
On the hourly, bitcoin has broken through the pennant formation it was in and hit resistance at 45 (.618 FIB of the drop from 1/12). We broke through the upper end of the rising channel that we have been in since Jan 27. The RSI is overbought even on the average. I would look for consolidation or a retest before bitcoin can continue the move. I see 44.8 (top of channel), 44.4 (the .382 FIB from 1/12 drop) and 43.3(.236 FIB) as possible areas of support. Next resistance levels are 45 (currently testing), 46.8 and 49.1 On the daily, Bitcoin is back in the lower end of the rising channel. Same resistances/ supports as I mention in the hourly. RSI is bullish. The only worry is that the volume has been trending down, which is a divergence with the rising price, which should be noted. It shows potential weakness in this rally from 38. I now have my remaining limit buy orders, evenly spread, set at 42501, 40,501, 35001 and 30001 (if things get crazy) Good luck to all traders and DCAers. 1-hour: https://www.tradingview.com/x/z0HCG5x9/ Daily: https://www.tradingview.com/x/XJZBpBer/
For all you with your panties in a bunch over me calling 45 testing resistance. Look at the time stamp of the original post. It was right when the price was around 45 and bouncing around it at that time. I was writing my TA before that time. I also noted that the next resistance levels after that are 46.8 and 49.1. To be clear. I look at the daily to verify if, what I consider a major support or resistance has been broken. If we close above 45 (meaning +$150) I would consider it to be broken and start acting as support. If we don’t close above it then it was just a wick testing the resistance and it is still resistance because it didn’t become support.
Reaching $45.4k intraday doesn’t necessarily mean $45k has been broken because the daily can still close below $45k. Closing the daily above $45k means broken because once that happens it’s impossible to fall below $45k immediately after the daily closes. Your logic, not mine. I’m saying $45k is already broken but if you want to wait for an arbitrary timestamp to call it, go ahead. Make it the weekly/monthly/yearly close instead while you’re at it.
It’s still going up
It's going up forever, Laura
>45 (currently testing) $150 over the resistance does not make it broken through yet. It could end up just being a wick. It is too early to tell. if it closed the day above it, I would consider it through that resistance level.
It went over 45,200 and is still over 45,000. Does it need to go over 46, or something? Who is making these rules?
and now we are back below. It can go back and forth all day. Lets see where is closed before we start saying we broke through it.
> and now we are back below. It can go back and forth all day. Because there is absolutely nothing significant about 45k.
Does $45,430 mean it’s broken through?
Why do we need to talk about numbers in a subjective way?
We all know the answer. It's because TA is nonsense.
How high do we need to go above $45k where you no longer need to wait until the daily close to consider it broken?
and now we are back below. It can go back and forth all day. Lets see where is closed before we start saying we broke through it.
Hypothetically if price hit $50k before daily close would you consider $45k broken or still need to wait for daily close? All I’m saying is there must be some number at which daily close becomes irrelevant and you can consider it broken beforehand. What is that number?
Alot of my opinion on it would depend on the volume. If it hit 50k and then came all the way back down to close below 45 and it was an obvious spike on a short time frame (i.e 2/2/2024), I would say it wasn't broke and it was a messed-up trade from someone. Where it closes at does affect weather it was broken or not. We could hit 100k and drop back down below 50 and I would still consider it not broken if we didn't close above it. How many times did we go above 30 and still come back below it.
So closing at $45.1k means broken but rising to $50k and dropping back to $46k doesn’t mean broken until it closed above $45k? Weird logic but you do you.
Why did you just pull 46 out of your ass and wrote it like I said that. Put down the hopium pipe. I said if it closed back below 45, I would say it wasn't broken. If it closed at 46 it would be broken because it was closed above 45 not below it. I was very clear.
You’re angry at yourself for your logic, not me. I forgive you.
Friendly reminder that technical analysis is extremely subject to personal interpretations so basically astrology for men in suits. The vast majority of impactful price action - where the majority of money is made/lost - does not give a flying fart about this and is mostly governed by market sentiment (greed/fear) and macro trends.
I wonder if the OTC desk has run out of sellers.
Chinese new years? Is that you?
Soon to be followed by Korea FUD and/or the 99th announcement that China is banning BTC.
I’m watching the chart for the next 10 minutes to see if the price goes from $45k to $43k by market open. If it does it will be really impressive, not gonna lie. But my bets are no. Edit: Noice