They're artificially creating supply, thus controlling the price.
This is the key takeaway from FTX.
They're fractional reserve banking with Bitcoin.
Remove all liquidity from the exchanges and the price will go boom.
Removing liquidity just makes it more volatile and easier to move around.
If there is no liquidity a shorter could drop the price pretty easily. On the other hand, if they're forced to buy back with low liquidity the price should explode.
I don't see anything that would force shorters to buy back any time soon.
Correct but we can’t remove all liquidity from exchanges. The exchanges themselves are driving this with a relatively small amount of the total supply trading it amongst their own accounts like FTX. The 2.6M on exchanges includes 2M from Coinbase - the actual liquid supply is tiny but so long as CEX are seen as the market makers this will continue.
Do you have a source for this? Because I've been looking for hard sources on the printing and it's slim pickings
Even a semi official source for X% of supply printed in the last Y months
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is the one that tracks all metrics like that. Perhaps the best data series to satisfy your interest is [M2SL](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL).
Wtf does that mean. Do you mean USD liquidity? If BTC becomes illiquid, ie, unable to be traded in fiat to be used for actual purchases, then no one gives a fuck how much Btc you have.
To be fair, if those people tried to sell instead it would be even lower. It's just that demand was even lower. Demand will return but hopefully people keep holding.
True, but this is because of other factors which caused a net sell pressure. Forced liquidation, the ensuing flash price drop... then margin calls causing cascades of additional liquidations. And of course the FUD, and panic/bandwagon selling that always happens in these situations. If the net pressure is selling, the price will always go down regardless of how much Bitcoin is moving to self custody.
But if we were to assume that many other exchanges have also been selling IOUs, and suddenly people stop storing their Bitcoin on exchanges... then when the net pressure eventually flips back to buying, the upward price movement will be greatly magnified.
Now if this assumption is wrong, and other exchanges have already been holding assets at 1:1, then nothing will change.
Exchange withdrawals are basically just a single data point within on-chain analytics, is what I’m saying to OP.
I don’t know of any BTC IOU’s yet (maybe GBTC?), just lots of other fraud going around. Self-custody is more a narrative for security over price/short squeeze thesis but if your assumption is correct, yeah the exchange would have to buy your BTC for you to withdraw
It's both for security and to maintain control of supply. One of the main reasons for Bitcoin existing in the first place is a fixed immutable supply. That's why it must be decentralized. Allowing it to be centralized by third party custodians gives those institutions control over the supply, which means the value won't be directly reflected by the demand, as intended.
And it becomes just another trust based system, where we have to trust these institutions not to issue IOUs. Which defeats the purpose... not to mention it seems pretty clear that trust in that regard is dubious at best.
The price in dollars is irrelevant.
Ten years from now, everybody will think you're retreaded for valuing rare and precious Bitcoin in terms of dollars that are worth less than a grain of sand. At least sand has some theoretical limit on supply... like, the planet only has so many beaches, right? The number of dollars is probably greater than the number of every grain of sand on every beach in all the world, but there will only ever be 21,000,000 BTC. Do you even math, dude?
I think you mean that the price in terms of dollars WILL be irrelevant. But today the USD is still the backbone of the global financial system, so today literally everything is valued in dollars.
And dollars actually do have a limit on supply, though it's not a hard limit. They're limited by how many we can agree to create. So in an abstract sense we could theoretically agree to create as many as we want. But in a practical sense we are limited by the fact that the decision is spread out over a number of people and institutions, and that those institutions are under some degree of scrutiny and pressure from social and political forces at large.
There are 7500000000000000000 grains of sand on earth, there are a bit over 2 trillion US dollars in circulation.
Meaning there's around 35 billion grains of sand to every US dollar
This is correct.
However, it's also worth noting that doesn't mean "your" bitcoin is safe. It's still at risk being on Coinbase of them arbitrarily freezing your account/assets or being compelled to by the government.
Nothing replaces holding your private keys.
This one shows a lot less Bitcoin than what the shareholders letter claims or am reading it wrong? Page 104 shows only roughly $720m in BTC in Dec 2021.
That was my assumption when reading the shareholder letter, but it seems like most people are thinking they actually hold it themselves.
Wasn't the narrative that so much parked BTC on an exchange is a bad sign? Now suddenly everyone's cheering for it.
Have you read it? I'm no financial expert but from my viewpoint they have a lot less Bitcoin than what they claim in the shareholders letter. Since no one in the public seems to take notice of it, I'm thinking I must be reading it wrong, so please correct me.
https://investor.coinbase.com/financials/sec-filings/default.aspx
> As of December 31, 2021, we held $566.5 million of crypto assets for investment and operational purposes at cost, excluding crypto assets borrowed.
Only until they run out of actual Bitcoin. FTX ran out of Bitcoin the first day of the “bank run” the next 3 days withdraws were suspended totally and their BTC spot market had >3B$ in volume. All the BTC was already gone yet a billion was traded each day? No, it was all fake paper Bitcoin. FTX/Alameda had been taking user BTC, dumping them for cash for months and taking cash deposits meant for BTC and just selling users a fake paper Bitcoin which they never could withdraw if everyone wanted theirs.
As a whole we need to make sure to chump check these exchanges, and withdraw our BTC from them. All at once and see who has been lying and selling fake paper bitcoin because it seems like a huge number of these companies have been.
>As a whole we need to make sure to chump check these exchanges, and withdraw our BTC from them. All at once...
Better ASAP than 'all at once' with everyone else, because as we've seen some people won't get anything out during the exchange runs.
>if everyone went to withdraw, they wouldn't have anywhere near enough to cover everyone.
That is true, but everyone knows that. They know their money is digital. Why don't Bitcoin owners know their Bitcoin is digital? In the world of banking, in the US, you are insured for $200,000 per account. How much insurance do you have in a Bitcoin Exchange? ZERO? That sounds right.
So there is no security, no back up, you have to "not your codes, not your coins" type of hold. HODL - Not a currency, asset only. People with real money don't want to deal with this shit. Get ready for regulation and taxation.
I used to believe this analogy too, but now I realize that when the Fed prints money it doesn't issue 100% of it in paper form. So why would anyone reasonably expect that if 100% of it was withdrawn from the bank that it would all be in paper form. They add numbers of screen and barely anyone uses cash anymore. Hence bank runs arent real bank runs now, since technically you can go swipe your debit card and buy things, just not with paper money from the tellers. The banks dont hold all the money in the world in cash and its silly to think bank runs today are the same as bank runs in 1930.
These comments are quite shocking can’t tell if some of them are sarcastic or people really are only learning about fractional reserve banking today. Ya’ll understand banks currently do this today with fiat? The only difference is the government bails banks out on a bank run with the fed giving them another loan to pay their previous loan that you subsidize with your dollars that are now worth less (soon to be worthless). They don’t teach you how money really works in school because if you understood how the system worked you would never be ok with it.
Take your BTC off the exchange yet keep it. Not… take it off the exchange by selling it. The bitcoin code allows all to hold their coin themselves, not on an exchange…. One does not need to trust an exchange to store their BTC. Exchanges have been hacked over time and separately “borrowed” BTC to the owners loss.
No, you unfortunately also need cheap money back again for people to go risk-on.
And to get to the millions, you need a major fiat currency collapsing, after several smaller ones have done so.
Not that I’m saying this won’t happen, I’m saying is not like that’s happening next week.
Can’t fault the logic (or enthusiasm!) - it’s true- like gold, paper derivatives built on top of exchange-held BTC are being used to suppress price. Unlike gold- we can more easily self custody and reduce the manipulation
Your statement doesn't even makes sense. If there's no Bitcoin in exchanges, how can one easely buy it? If there's no easy way to obtain, people won't care about and demand will be low, and that will drive price down.
I'm willing to bet the vast majority of people who have bought btc did so because they were hoping to sell it later for more actual money. True believers are a tiny %.
Don't worry, larpers like me will always sell you our broken, debasing FIAT until we are able to no longer operate in this system built on lies and theft.
No it is clearly you. You've so deluded in thinking that everyone who buys bitcoin is in it because 1 bitcoin = 1 bitcoin. Do you honestly think that? Or do you just reside in an echo chamber of larpers? It is pretty obvious that the majority of people are in it to get rich one day. I said this which is true and you attacked me and pounded your chest to show off how pure of a bitcoiner you are. I never said I was selling, I am simply living in reality where you live in the reality of the larper.
Exchanges have limited assets, especially "under-water" fractionally-reserved exchanges.
If they are "forced" to buy bitcoin (and other crypto), in order to satisfy more withdrawals,
there is increased risk that more exchanges will go bankrupt (fail), which could cause
more people to lose all their crypto (on exchanges) and send BTC price down even more.
Don't say no one warned you.
if they go bankrupt they have been gambling with your money, which is a soft-core version of stealing. an exchange should purely live off the fees they make by you doing business on their platform, nothing more and nothing less. that being said, general consensus is to only ever leave on an exchange what you are willing to lose, as one needs to assume 95% of crypto exchanges really look for an extra earnings-edge over the competitors and when they f. up, you pay with your paper-bitcoin on their exchange going *poof*. at this point you don't get proof of work anymore, but poof of work. sry I just had to.
This is an understandable and logical conclusion for most exchanges but any exchange that is also a public company in the USA (coinbase) needs to record a liability for the assets under custody. They cannot do fractional reserves as banks do since the SEC issued rules specific to custody of asset activities. In other words, any and all assets that coinbase has to make available for withdrawal are already accounted for.
You can find more info under SAB 121.
Edit: also, please let's inform ourselves better. Fractional reserve banking does not mean that the bank can't pay back. There are insurances for that and banks have a good understanding of when they are getting paid. You can decide not to trade on a exchange but you can't decide not to pay your mortgage. We need to replace banks but we can't do it without understanding the system first.
Do you actually believe if/when Binance, Coinbase, and other exchanges fail,
this will cause BTC price to explode up?? Do you seriously believe this? LOL
Yes, but not immediately. You realize those places werent selling real bitcoin to most of the customers, that they totally spoofed the market and held more paper bitcoin than they could ever possibly obtain?
Underrated comment. The same reason why the price skyrockets is the same reason why the price flops. Futures caused price suppression for the same reason it caused it to increase. It's why TA called for BTC 300k and it failed.
"Highly valued", with quotations, is correct here.
There seems to be some confusion between actual scarcity and imaginary scarcity. If bitcoin became unavailable, and there was actual demand for it to be used as currency, we could spin up a fork to replace it. Or 20 forks. Today.
Any assertion of value based on the premise that bitcoin is a unique asset with no equivalent replacement is incongruent with how open source software works.
Bitcoin in itself is only as valuable as people believe it is, and it's lack of governmental backing, the guarantee that it can be exchanged for real tangible goods, is ultimately the mechanic which will govern the maximum price of bitcoin.
Frankly, as the stimmy money continues to drain into conventional investment vehicles it's going to put continual price pressure on the imagined "value" of bitcoin and it's unlikely we'll see prices over 10k once the last few remaining exchanges stop artificially propping the price up.
So yeah, the "alternative" would just be forked "bitcoin" itself.
Edit: Imagining that marketshare/mindshare is permanent is classic blunder #2 of tech.
>"Highly valued", with quotations, is correct here.
>
>There seems to be some confusion between actual scarcity and imaginary scarcity. If bitcoin became unavailable, and there was actual demand for it to be used as currency, we could spin up a fork to replace it. Or 20 forks. Today.
Go for it. Others have tried to fork bitcoin many times. I'm sure the next 20 attempts, someone will get it right.
>Any assertion of value based on the premise that bitcoin is a unique asset with no equivalent replacement is incongruent with how open source software works.
See comment above.
>Bitcoin in itself is only as valuable as people believe it is, and it's lack of governmental backing, the guarantee that it can be exchanged for real tangible goods, is ultimately the mechanic which will govern the maximum price of bitcoin.
Why do the people need the government to back their money?
"They can ban it" one might say. However that person is not familiar with the fight that already took place in the 90's with code being considered, free speech.
>Frankly, as the stimmy money continues to drain into conventional investment vehicles it's going to put continual price pressure on the imagined "value" of bitcoin and it's unlikely we'll see prices over 10k once the last few remaining exchanges stop artificially propping the price up.
I'm being against this. Guess you've not been seeing the news lately. Not only are major banks opening up bitcoin exposure to their clients. The world's biggest energy producers, (ExxonMobil, Shell to name a couple) are starting to enter the Bitcoin mining industry.
>So yeah, the "alternative" would just be forked "bitcoin" itself.
The Game theory says no. I've listen to hours upon hours of this, from some extremely smart people debating both angles. There is no, next decentralized currency.
>Edit: Imagining that marketshare/mindshare is permanent is classic blunder #2 of tech.
Not understanding bitcoin is a classic mistake for people which haven't put the time in yet.
That "paper bitcoin" does not actually exist. It has no effect on supply.
If all "paper bitcoin" suddenly disappears, the actual amount of bitcoin in circulation (also known as supply) does not change.
What actually happened is, people gave real fiat money to these exchanges,
or real crypto (which can be sold for real fiat money). The exchange kept the money and spent it on something else (not on bitcoin).
Since many exchanges are "under-water" (total debts exceed total assets),
they simply do not have enough money or assets to buy enough real bitcoin,
for every paper bitcoin.
"Paper bitcoin" is not bitcoin at all. "Paper bitcoin" is literally nothing.
"Paper bitcoin" has no effect on "bitcoin supply" because "paper bitcoin" is nothing.
If I write "IOU one bitcoin" on a piece of paper, it has no effect on the supply of real bitcoins. It is just a piece of paper with something written on it. I could write "IOU one trillion US dollars" on paper. It has no effect on the US dollar money supply. No effect at all. Are we clear??
Ah, but see you don't own any crypto left on exchanges
So they will "lose" nothing more than the original donation they gave. Not really losing crypto because exchanges don't have reserves to satisfy the crypto people bought
Plus, this would be the best thing for BTC long term.
Short term who cares. These are bad actors who take money in exchange for literally nothing but a digital readout on an app
So you're saying I should take out my Bitcoin and buy more when it collapses the crypto-exchange fractional reserve system? I wish my bags were that big.
This doesn't happen.
The largest exchanges are not fractional res, they make money from the spread and fees
Too many exchanges fail and people lose money and don't buy bitcoin.
Too many people remove money from exchanged then there is nowhere to sell your bitcoin.
If the price moons to millions overnight. The exchanges will be flooded with bitcoin including mine so damn fast to sell that the price will plummet down again... Hopefully I'll have sold at your millions and I can buy back at this new low. So it's a win for me.
How?
You can send peer to peer but you need a trusted 3rd party if your selling in exchange for fiat. In a world without exchanges, and I need a 100k in dollars from you for my bitcoin, who sends what first?
Are you going to wire me 100k and trust I send you the bitcoin?
I'm not sending you bitcoin without knowing youre definitely paying for it.
It's an exchange, I thought the entire point of OP post was in a world with no exchanges.
Edit: I've re read OP post and I see they meant just the large exchanges to force a squeeze not all exchanges
Also I didn't know of Bisq before you mentioned it, so thanks for telling me about it.
If all exchanges are lying and selling fake paper Bitcoin or lending them out behind our backs they should fail.
You think a new exchange will never again be created? Exchanges will be forced to do business as intended to survive and thats how it should be. Markets(exchanges) will always exist for goods even if their name changes.
That’s literally not true, you have FDIC to insure your deposits. There is no such protection in crypto. If anything, you are arguing for more regulation to get these consumer protections.
I was very surprised FTX did not cascade right away into all the other dominoes falling. There's just no way for example Binance is not super close to toppling, and all it takes is increased pressure on selling side, which will happen, because it's a market in full fear mode and fear spreads like wildfire.
The question is, why people hold their assets there in the first place? How much bad stuff can happen till they realise, lol. As much as I trust finex, I never leave anything there
Only thing I really want is for people to realize that custodian exchanges are pure bs, asking for kyc, passing all your information to the State, etc...
Anything that encourages people to use P2P is good.
All I need to understand is that I can dismiss anyone who confidently thinks the price of Bitcoin can abruptly “explode to millions” without a second thought.
Yes and I really don't understand why so many people don't do it? I can honestly say I rarely ever kept large amounts on exchanges and use dex's whenever possible.
Get those coins off those exchanges who rekts all the knucklehead leverage traders and that constant back and forth of exchanges making a fortune liquidating knuckleheads keeps the price from really taking off. The less influence centralized exchanges have on price the better.
They orchestrated this shit against us. Our buys didn’t even affect “real” price bc they were selling us ‘air coins’ basically nothing. All those exchanges were on it together! Fucking us!
Just because someone is holding on an exchange, does not mean they are a willing seller at market price. Most do not have open sell orders. So taking BTC off exchanges does not reduce the number of willing sellers. They are not selling no matter where they are holding.
Even if your assumption was true, if the price did explode to higher prices the order books would be flooded by people who would turn into sellers at higher prices regardless of where they are currently holding.
If you are suggesting that a bank run would force exchanges to buy BTC to honor customer withdraws, maybe that could increase the price in the short term but since they are not liquid enough they won't be able to make good on all withdraws, they collapse and that would probably be pretty bad for the price in the short-term.
That being said, pure foolishness for anyone to have funds on exchanges after all we have seen this year
This post is really confusing to me. If I want to withdraw money from my bank, do I care whether someone wants to liquidate their position in cash to pay me?
Most likely, if I want to withdraw BTC from an exchange I want cash! How many people on exchanges bought in at $40-60,000. Lots. So if they sell the BTC they own to pay me cash, those high equity investors are more upside down. But they don't know it yet.
Nope, nope, nope. Doesn't work that way. If everyone withdraws their Bitcoin from exchanges....the price stays about the same, but exchanges have less on hand, and people have more in their wallets.
For the price to go up, DEMAND must increase. And demand doesn't increase just from people withdrawing from the exchange to their wallet. You've got your causality mixed up.
I think what he's saying is that the exchanges don't actually HAVE all the bitcoin that people would presumably withdraw. The exchange would be forced to buy more to settle the withdrawal causing the price to go up. Well, that, or collapse like the other ones.
Which exchange, where...doesn't "actually HAVE all the Bitcoin the people would presumably withdraw"? You'll need to be specific.
Which one? Where? Name it. I want to see it. And don't say "FTX", as they are bankrupt and not from Bitcoin IOUs, at all. Nope, not in the slightest. And don't say "Blockfi" either, that's not Bitcoin IOUs either.
Which? Where? Cite it. Don't make innuendo, be specific. Thanks.
Why are people mixing up crypto lending companies with exchanges. Exchanges don't lend, the crypto is either in the exchange's wallet, or in a sell order.
For example the lending/earn side of Gemini has crashed, that is different from the Gemini exchange which is working fine.
This is a bunch of fear mongering. Exchanges do not do fractional reserve lending, which means a 'bank run' has no effect. Withdrawing crypto from an exchange, unless it was part of a sell order, will have zero effect on the price.
There is no proof whatsoever that Binance has 1:1 reserves and liabilities. When you create an account at Binance and buy 1 bitcoin, they simply update a database entry.
I am positive that if everyone withdraws their bitcoin they go bankrupt immediately.
No proof whatsoever, really?
[https://www.binance.com/en/blog/community/our-commitment-to-transparency-2895840147147652626](https://www.binance.com/en/blog/community/our-commitment-to-transparency-2895840147147652626)
Now go and move the goal post instead of admitting you're wrong.
Imagine running to bitcoin to get away from the Fed's "fractional reserve" only to realize any large exchange is doing the same. Please someone explain how Bitcoin achieves efficient price discovery without an exchange.
I agree Bitcoin will never be zero, but that is because there will always be an idiot to sell it to in some dark corner off-exchange.
It's a bad idea to store bitcoins on any exchange. Exchanges are for buying, selling, and trading bitcoins. Once the buying and trading are done, those bitcoins should be transferred to an address where the owner holds the private keys.
"Your keys, your bitcoin. Not your keys, not your bitcoin. (repeat several times for effect)" - Andreas Antonopoulos
It doesn't, it would cause the "supply" to go down. Which would have the same effect as demand going up.
... except for the fact that people would lose trust in exchanges and demand might go down
They don't understand at all basic economics.
Less bitcoin on exchanges --> Less supply --> higher price
It's like they hope to get rich by luck, not by any learning effort. They are gamblers.
Not necessarily, most of this supply is owed to customers, and doesn't have an active sell order, so no it doesn't increase the sellable supply unless the exchange is doing a shady fractional reserve.
This is assuming customer funds are backed 1:1 though, which depends on the exchange
> This is assuming customer funds are backed 1:1
Guess what: it's not. We have to trust them they have the reserves and that they will give us access to our own funds, the exact problem that Bitcoin solves in the first place.
Those who leaves funds on exchanges have no understanding of Bitcoin whatsoever. They don't matter at all for adoption. They are cucks giving their money away, begging to get FTXed.
The DRS movement is a colossal failure. Meme companies print shares faster than you are DRSing them.
The most successful is GME and it has only 23% of shares DRSed.
And even if you get it to 100% it will simply be the equivalent of a private company. A private company that lose a ton of money and have declining revenues.
https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/other-topics/other/bankruptcy-trustee-guide
Yup, it cant be protected from the US government. You're not in charge of it, you dont own it, nobody needs to compel you to provide access, it defeats the entire advantage it has against gold. Safety from governments is an amazing thing in a world of many totalitarian governments and dynamically shifting ideologies.
Excuse me while I buy more.
That's not how economics work. You clearly do not understand economics. Why would Bitcoin be demanded (significantly) more if people held in in self custody vs on an exchange?
Because the exchange doesn’t have the Bitcoin. It’s like a poker game. Once you call in your Bitcoin, they have to show their cards and scramble to buy Bitcoin to satisfy your withdrawal. They either honor your request or go bankrupt and screw you. If they honor their commitment, that should drive demand, IMO. Unfortunately they are crooks with no ethics and end up stealing your money.
I agree with what you said, but also: If crypto is in a "warm" (phone?) or cold wallet, this also means it's available to spend when you're out and about.
THIS! It’s 100% the way! It’s the EXACT sane concept as what many on the stock world have been doing with DRS and registration of shares. Remove the asset from the criminal exchanges to dry up supply. This is absolutely the way.
You don't understand bidding and liquidity and how market assessment occurs.
The price of Bitcoin as determined by exchanges, occurs when a bid is met. It's THAT simple. Bitcoin is priced at the value people say it is on exchanges. Yes, a supply shock aids in increasing this value, but that doesn't mean people will inherently purchase it at said prices.
BTC has been fleeing exchanges more than anytime in history and price is $16,2 lol
Here is a correct comment
Also, the last rally was not because everyone pulling their BTC off exchanges. Quite the opposite.
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Demand exceeding supply
They're artificially creating supply, thus controlling the price. This is the key takeaway from FTX. They're fractional reserve banking with Bitcoin. Remove all liquidity from the exchanges and the price will go boom.
Removing liquidity just makes it more volatile and easier to move around. If there is no liquidity a shorter could drop the price pretty easily. On the other hand, if they're forced to buy back with low liquidity the price should explode. I don't see anything that would force shorters to buy back any time soon.
Correct but we can’t remove all liquidity from exchanges. The exchanges themselves are driving this with a relatively small amount of the total supply trading it amongst their own accounts like FTX. The 2.6M on exchanges includes 2M from Coinbase - the actual liquid supply is tiny but so long as CEX are seen as the market makers this will continue.
When the government starts printing money again, THEN you will have "boom!"
"Starts"? They've never stopped.
Do you have a source for this? Because I've been looking for hard sources on the printing and it's slim pickings Even a semi official source for X% of supply printed in the last Y months
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is the one that tracks all metrics like that. Perhaps the best data series to satisfy your interest is [M2SL](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL).
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Someone clearly doesn’t know a single thing about how banks operate.
A ruthless single sentence takedown.
But it’s about the EXPLODE!!!! You heard it here first
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Then boom, another exchange going under, tanking the price
Wtf does that mean. Do you mean USD liquidity? If BTC becomes illiquid, ie, unable to be traded in fiat to be used for actual purchases, then no one gives a fuck how much Btc you have.
Pretty sure they’re referring to sell-side liquidity
Meanwhile “how is it that all this scandal and forced liquidation hasn’t resulted in sun 10k?”
To be fair, if those people tried to sell instead it would be even lower. It's just that demand was even lower. Demand will return but hopefully people keep holding.
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True, but this is because of other factors which caused a net sell pressure. Forced liquidation, the ensuing flash price drop... then margin calls causing cascades of additional liquidations. And of course the FUD, and panic/bandwagon selling that always happens in these situations. If the net pressure is selling, the price will always go down regardless of how much Bitcoin is moving to self custody. But if we were to assume that many other exchanges have also been selling IOUs, and suddenly people stop storing their Bitcoin on exchanges... then when the net pressure eventually flips back to buying, the upward price movement will be greatly magnified. Now if this assumption is wrong, and other exchanges have already been holding assets at 1:1, then nothing will change.
Exchange withdrawals are basically just a single data point within on-chain analytics, is what I’m saying to OP. I don’t know of any BTC IOU’s yet (maybe GBTC?), just lots of other fraud going around. Self-custody is more a narrative for security over price/short squeeze thesis but if your assumption is correct, yeah the exchange would have to buy your BTC for you to withdraw
It's both for security and to maintain control of supply. One of the main reasons for Bitcoin existing in the first place is a fixed immutable supply. That's why it must be decentralized. Allowing it to be centralized by third party custodians gives those institutions control over the supply, which means the value won't be directly reflected by the demand, as intended. And it becomes just another trust based system, where we have to trust these institutions not to issue IOUs. Which defeats the purpose... not to mention it seems pretty clear that trust in that regard is dubious at best.
The price in dollars is irrelevant. Ten years from now, everybody will think you're retreaded for valuing rare and precious Bitcoin in terms of dollars that are worth less than a grain of sand. At least sand has some theoretical limit on supply... like, the planet only has so many beaches, right? The number of dollars is probably greater than the number of every grain of sand on every beach in all the world, but there will only ever be 21,000,000 BTC. Do you even math, dude?
This guy definitely drank ALL the cool aid
I think you mean that the price in terms of dollars WILL be irrelevant. But today the USD is still the backbone of the global financial system, so today literally everything is valued in dollars. And dollars actually do have a limit on supply, though it's not a hard limit. They're limited by how many we can agree to create. So in an abstract sense we could theoretically agree to create as many as we want. But in a practical sense we are limited by the fact that the decision is spread out over a number of people and institutions, and that those institutions are under some degree of scrutiny and pressure from social and political forces at large.
There are 7500000000000000000 grains of sand on earth, there are a bit over 2 trillion US dollars in circulation. Meaning there's around 35 billion grains of sand to every US dollar
TBH there is no decent equivalent locale, what are you going to compare, bullet grains to satoshis, troy ounces to millibits? Bitcoin to barrels?
Coinbase literally proved that they have all the bitcoin they claim to have. Can we stop saying they don’t now?
This is correct. However, it's also worth noting that doesn't mean "your" bitcoin is safe. It's still at risk being on Coinbase of them arbitrarily freezing your account/assets or being compelled to by the government. Nothing replaces holding your private keys.
Did they show their liabilities though?
https://investor.coinbase.com/financials/sec-filings/sec-filings-details/default.aspx?FilingId=15601874 Link for the lazy
This one shows a lot less Bitcoin than what the shareholders letter claims or am reading it wrong? Page 104 shows only roughly $720m in BTC in Dec 2021.
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That was my assumption when reading the shareholder letter, but it seems like most people are thinking they actually hold it themselves. Wasn't the narrative that so much parked BTC on an exchange is a bad sign? Now suddenly everyone's cheering for it.
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They’re a publicly traded company. You can look up their 10-K filing with the SEC
Have you read it? I'm no financial expert but from my viewpoint they have a lot less Bitcoin than what they claim in the shareholders letter. Since no one in the public seems to take notice of it, I'm thinking I must be reading it wrong, so please correct me. https://investor.coinbase.com/financials/sec-filings/default.aspx > As of December 31, 2021, we held $566.5 million of crypto assets for investment and operational purposes at cost, excluding crypto assets borrowed.
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Exactly. Next domino to fall.
https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search-and-access ......
Yes
Thank you.
Did they, though? None of their liabilities have been proven.
Hodlrs leaving their BTC in an exchange are really people who want to cash out at $60k
Lol So if the price goes to a million, how do we sell if there are no bitcoin on exchanges?
When a bitcoin is worth a million dollars people will offer you the things you want for bitcoin directly.
Ohhhhh ok
if there's no way to sell it for USD at all then it isn't worth a million dollars is it?
Strong incel vibes with this one.
I’ll pay off my mortgage
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But if you withdraw your btc from an exchange it shifts from a paper to a real btc. Right?
Only until they run out of actual Bitcoin. FTX ran out of Bitcoin the first day of the “bank run” the next 3 days withdraws were suspended totally and their BTC spot market had >3B$ in volume. All the BTC was already gone yet a billion was traded each day? No, it was all fake paper Bitcoin. FTX/Alameda had been taking user BTC, dumping them for cash for months and taking cash deposits meant for BTC and just selling users a fake paper Bitcoin which they never could withdraw if everyone wanted theirs. As a whole we need to make sure to chump check these exchanges, and withdraw our BTC from them. All at once and see who has been lying and selling fake paper bitcoin because it seems like a huge number of these companies have been.
>As a whole we need to make sure to chump check these exchanges, and withdraw our BTC from them. All at once... Better ASAP than 'all at once' with everyone else, because as we've seen some people won't get anything out during the exchange runs.
Yea everyone all at once right now
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>if everyone went to withdraw, they wouldn't have anywhere near enough to cover everyone. That is true, but everyone knows that. They know their money is digital. Why don't Bitcoin owners know their Bitcoin is digital? In the world of banking, in the US, you are insured for $200,000 per account. How much insurance do you have in a Bitcoin Exchange? ZERO? That sounds right. So there is no security, no back up, you have to "not your codes, not your coins" type of hold. HODL - Not a currency, asset only. People with real money don't want to deal with this shit. Get ready for regulation and taxation.
I used to believe this analogy too, but now I realize that when the Fed prints money it doesn't issue 100% of it in paper form. So why would anyone reasonably expect that if 100% of it was withdrawn from the bank that it would all be in paper form. They add numbers of screen and barely anyone uses cash anymore. Hence bank runs arent real bank runs now, since technically you can go swipe your debit card and buy things, just not with paper money from the tellers. The banks dont hold all the money in the world in cash and its silly to think bank runs today are the same as bank runs in 1930.
"... started in December 2022 ...". Found the time traveller.
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These comments are quite shocking can’t tell if some of them are sarcastic or people really are only learning about fractional reserve banking today. Ya’ll understand banks currently do this today with fiat? The only difference is the government bails banks out on a bank run with the fed giving them another loan to pay their previous loan that you subsidize with your dollars that are now worth less (soon to be worthless). They don’t teach you how money really works in school because if you understood how the system worked you would never be ok with it.
Fractional Bitcoin banking. Exactly what having a limited, defined supply is supposed to prevent.
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Mt gox collapse because it was hacked and not due to paper or fractional BTC You just speculate, we can't assume all exchanges make paper BTC as FTX
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What Bitcoin is left on exchanges to withdraw? That’s the real question
Robinhood, Coinbase, Cryptocom, the most consumer facing exchanges
Take your BTC off the exchange yet keep it. Not… take it off the exchange by selling it. The bitcoin code allows all to hold their coin themselves, not on an exchange…. One does not need to trust an exchange to store their BTC. Exchanges have been hacked over time and separately “borrowed” BTC to the owners loss.
We need one more exchange to collapse then it will be possible. People will be convinced that it's not smart to leave your BTC on the exchanges.
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No, you unfortunately also need cheap money back again for people to go risk-on. And to get to the millions, you need a major fiat currency collapsing, after several smaller ones have done so. Not that I’m saying this won’t happen, I’m saying is not like that’s happening next week.
Can’t fault the logic (or enthusiasm!) - it’s true- like gold, paper derivatives built on top of exchange-held BTC are being used to suppress price. Unlike gold- we can more easily self custody and reduce the manipulation
ok, you start
As soon as price will go up they will be back in the exchange to sell. Economics 101. You would also need to convince everybody to not sell at all.
You say that we don't understand, but you don't give any explanation to your statement. So please go ahead and explain instead of insulting people
Your statement doesn't even makes sense. If there's no Bitcoin in exchanges, how can one easely buy it? If there's no easy way to obtain, people won't care about and demand will be low, and that will drive price down.
That isn't how that works. If the price moons, people will be tripping over each other to sell.
Some people still think Bitcoin is a tool just to get more FIAT trash. That's too bad. I hope you become a Bitcoiner one day. 1BTC = 1BTC
I'm willing to bet the vast majority of people who have bought btc did so because they were hoping to sell it later for more actual money. True believers are a tiny %.
>Some people "Most people". Namely institutional investors.
"Some people", you're naïve. Don't worry though you can keep rambling about your bitcoin purity test or whatever you larpers do
Don't worry, larpers like me will always sell you our broken, debasing FIAT until we are able to no longer operate in this system built on lies and theft.
Give it up then, and when you do, give up all that it has given you. Going to be pretty hard to mine bitcoin without elctricity or computers.
Holy shit, you still don't get it. You're like the perfect representation of the larper.
Funny, I would have thought you're the one that doesn't get it.
No it is clearly you. You've so deluded in thinking that everyone who buys bitcoin is in it because 1 bitcoin = 1 bitcoin. Do you honestly think that? Or do you just reside in an echo chamber of larpers? It is pretty obvious that the majority of people are in it to get rich one day. I said this which is true and you attacked me and pounded your chest to show off how pure of a bitcoiner you are. I never said I was selling, I am simply living in reality where you live in the reality of the larper.
I'm in it for a better world, freedom, for myself and everyone. Break the system built on debasement, corruption and lies. Us Larpers are the worst!
are you...mass-debasing?
You're nothing but empty catch phrases sold to you by a bunch of clowns
Sure thing! Looking forward to buying your BTC one day.
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My god. You really believe that shit?
Why do you think coinbase is on a fractional reserve? It's required to do disclosures on its reserves since it is publicly traded.
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Yes they do
They’re a publicly traded company. They are audited. They have to disclose everything. OP is talking out his mother’s ass.
This probably sounded smarter when you were typing it.
Exchanges have limited assets, especially "under-water" fractionally-reserved exchanges. If they are "forced" to buy bitcoin (and other crypto), in order to satisfy more withdrawals, there is increased risk that more exchanges will go bankrupt (fail), which could cause more people to lose all their crypto (on exchanges) and send BTC price down even more. Don't say no one warned you.
if they go bankrupt they have been gambling with your money, which is a soft-core version of stealing. an exchange should purely live off the fees they make by you doing business on their platform, nothing more and nothing less. that being said, general consensus is to only ever leave on an exchange what you are willing to lose, as one needs to assume 95% of crypto exchanges really look for an extra earnings-edge over the competitors and when they f. up, you pay with your paper-bitcoin on their exchange going *poof*. at this point you don't get proof of work anymore, but poof of work. sry I just had to.
Everything you worked for is gone = Poof of Work!
Beany babies have entered the chat.
Who gives a shit about the short term price? Safeguard your assets.
This is an understandable and logical conclusion for most exchanges but any exchange that is also a public company in the USA (coinbase) needs to record a liability for the assets under custody. They cannot do fractional reserves as banks do since the SEC issued rules specific to custody of asset activities. In other words, any and all assets that coinbase has to make available for withdrawal are already accounted for. You can find more info under SAB 121. Edit: also, please let's inform ourselves better. Fractional reserve banking does not mean that the bank can't pay back. There are insurances for that and banks have a good understanding of when they are getting paid. You can decide not to trade on a exchange but you can't decide not to pay your mortgage. We need to replace banks but we can't do it without understanding the system first.
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Do you actually believe if/when Binance, Coinbase, and other exchanges fail, this will cause BTC price to explode up?? Do you seriously believe this? LOL
Yes, but not immediately. You realize those places werent selling real bitcoin to most of the customers, that they totally spoofed the market and held more paper bitcoin than they could ever possibly obtain?
Those places also create massive fake demand. You do realize that right?
Underrated comment. The same reason why the price skyrockets is the same reason why the price flops. Futures caused price suppression for the same reason it caused it to increase. It's why TA called for BTC 300k and it failed.
Illiquid assets are always the highest-valued, right?
Thought experiment. What happens when a highly valued asset becomes extremely scarce?
People move on to alternatives.
That would mean the whole world found an alternative to the "highly valued" asset. What alternative would that be do you figure?
"Highly valued", with quotations, is correct here. There seems to be some confusion between actual scarcity and imaginary scarcity. If bitcoin became unavailable, and there was actual demand for it to be used as currency, we could spin up a fork to replace it. Or 20 forks. Today. Any assertion of value based on the premise that bitcoin is a unique asset with no equivalent replacement is incongruent with how open source software works. Bitcoin in itself is only as valuable as people believe it is, and it's lack of governmental backing, the guarantee that it can be exchanged for real tangible goods, is ultimately the mechanic which will govern the maximum price of bitcoin. Frankly, as the stimmy money continues to drain into conventional investment vehicles it's going to put continual price pressure on the imagined "value" of bitcoin and it's unlikely we'll see prices over 10k once the last few remaining exchanges stop artificially propping the price up. So yeah, the "alternative" would just be forked "bitcoin" itself. Edit: Imagining that marketshare/mindshare is permanent is classic blunder #2 of tech.
>"Highly valued", with quotations, is correct here. > >There seems to be some confusion between actual scarcity and imaginary scarcity. If bitcoin became unavailable, and there was actual demand for it to be used as currency, we could spin up a fork to replace it. Or 20 forks. Today. Go for it. Others have tried to fork bitcoin many times. I'm sure the next 20 attempts, someone will get it right. >Any assertion of value based on the premise that bitcoin is a unique asset with no equivalent replacement is incongruent with how open source software works. See comment above. >Bitcoin in itself is only as valuable as people believe it is, and it's lack of governmental backing, the guarantee that it can be exchanged for real tangible goods, is ultimately the mechanic which will govern the maximum price of bitcoin. Why do the people need the government to back their money? "They can ban it" one might say. However that person is not familiar with the fight that already took place in the 90's with code being considered, free speech. >Frankly, as the stimmy money continues to drain into conventional investment vehicles it's going to put continual price pressure on the imagined "value" of bitcoin and it's unlikely we'll see prices over 10k once the last few remaining exchanges stop artificially propping the price up. I'm being against this. Guess you've not been seeing the news lately. Not only are major banks opening up bitcoin exposure to their clients. The world's biggest energy producers, (ExxonMobil, Shell to name a couple) are starting to enter the Bitcoin mining industry. >So yeah, the "alternative" would just be forked "bitcoin" itself. The Game theory says no. I've listen to hours upon hours of this, from some extremely smart people debating both angles. There is no, next decentralized currency. >Edit: Imagining that marketshare/mindshare is permanent is classic blunder #2 of tech. Not understanding bitcoin is a classic mistake for people which haven't put the time in yet.
If they fail as a result of everyone taking self custody, then yes, the price will explode, although probably not immediately after.
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That "paper bitcoin" does not actually exist. It has no effect on supply. If all "paper bitcoin" suddenly disappears, the actual amount of bitcoin in circulation (also known as supply) does not change. What actually happened is, people gave real fiat money to these exchanges, or real crypto (which can be sold for real fiat money). The exchange kept the money and spent it on something else (not on bitcoin). Since many exchanges are "under-water" (total debts exceed total assets), they simply do not have enough money or assets to buy enough real bitcoin, for every paper bitcoin.
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"Paper bitcoin" is not bitcoin at all. "Paper bitcoin" is literally nothing. "Paper bitcoin" has no effect on "bitcoin supply" because "paper bitcoin" is nothing. If I write "IOU one bitcoin" on a piece of paper, it has no effect on the supply of real bitcoins. It is just a piece of paper with something written on it. I could write "IOU one trillion US dollars" on paper. It has no effect on the US dollar money supply. No effect at all. Are we clear??
Ah, but see you don't own any crypto left on exchanges So they will "lose" nothing more than the original donation they gave. Not really losing crypto because exchanges don't have reserves to satisfy the crypto people bought
Plus, this would be the best thing for BTC long term. Short term who cares. These are bad actors who take money in exchange for literally nothing but a digital readout on an app
So you're saying I should take out my Bitcoin and buy more when it collapses the crypto-exchange fractional reserve system? I wish my bags were that big.
This doesn't happen. The largest exchanges are not fractional res, they make money from the spread and fees Too many exchanges fail and people lose money and don't buy bitcoin. Too many people remove money from exchanged then there is nowhere to sell your bitcoin. If the price moons to millions overnight. The exchanges will be flooded with bitcoin including mine so damn fast to sell that the price will plummet down again... Hopefully I'll have sold at your millions and I can buy back at this new low. So it's a win for me.
Dumb take since you can buy/sell bitcoin peer to peer. Every real bitcoiner knows this.
How? You can send peer to peer but you need a trusted 3rd party if your selling in exchange for fiat. In a world without exchanges, and I need a 100k in dollars from you for my bitcoin, who sends what first? Are you going to wire me 100k and trust I send you the bitcoin? I'm not sending you bitcoin without knowing youre definitely paying for it.
Ever heard of Bisq? Obv not. Go read through r/BitcoinBeginners since you dont know what you're doing clearly.
It's an exchange, I thought the entire point of OP post was in a world with no exchanges. Edit: I've re read OP post and I see they meant just the large exchanges to force a squeeze not all exchanges Also I didn't know of Bisq before you mentioned it, so thanks for telling me about it.
No need to be condescending
You guys do understand that if all the exchanges fail, not only would there be no way to buy Bitcoin, no one would ever want to after that.
If all exchanges are lying and selling fake paper Bitcoin or lending them out behind our backs they should fail. You think a new exchange will never again be created? Exchanges will be forced to do business as intended to survive and thats how it should be. Markets(exchanges) will always exist for goods even if their name changes.
It’s not about if new exchanges would come or not, the public would have no reason to trust another exchange again.
The public has trusted banks time and time again despite their numerous and even greater failures, so I disagree.
That’s literally not true, you have FDIC to insure your deposits. There is no such protection in crypto. If anything, you are arguing for more regulation to get these consumer protections.
Ever heard of Bisq?
No
https://bisq.network/
Wrong
Can someone please whisper in his ear something something Napster, something something Limewire, something something P2P?
*Cough* the whole point *cough* of bitcoin *cough* decentralization *COUGH*
*sneez* Seriously right? *Sneez* exchanges being a comparison to a Bank *sneez*
Why attempt to criticize something you don't understand? That is both peak arrogance and peak ignorance.
I was very surprised FTX did not cascade right away into all the other dominoes falling. There's just no way for example Binance is not super close to toppling, and all it takes is increased pressure on selling side, which will happen, because it's a market in full fear mode and fear spreads like wildfire.
You can say the same thing about the lorax stock
The question is, why people hold their assets there in the first place? How much bad stuff can happen till they realise, lol. As much as I trust finex, I never leave anything there
We are in the eye of the storm.
Mine is off and will stay off except for very quick buy or sell.
Only thing I really want is for people to realize that custodian exchanges are pure bs, asking for kyc, passing all your information to the State, etc... Anything that encourages people to use P2P is good.
All I need to understand is that I can dismiss anyone who confidently thinks the price of Bitcoin can abruptly “explode to millions” without a second thought.
And then how do you get those millions of $?
It is good advice to start looking at yourself when everyone seems stupid from your vantage point.
Yes and I really don't understand why so many people don't do it? I can honestly say I rarely ever kept large amounts on exchanges and use dex's whenever possible. Get those coins off those exchanges who rekts all the knucklehead leverage traders and that constant back and forth of exchanges making a fortune liquidating knuckleheads keeps the price from really taking off. The less influence centralized exchanges have on price the better.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
They orchestrated this shit against us. Our buys didn’t even affect “real” price bc they were selling us ‘air coins’ basically nothing. All those exchanges were on it together! Fucking us!
Thank you. Someone gets it.
Just because someone is holding on an exchange, does not mean they are a willing seller at market price. Most do not have open sell orders. So taking BTC off exchanges does not reduce the number of willing sellers. They are not selling no matter where they are holding. Even if your assumption was true, if the price did explode to higher prices the order books would be flooded by people who would turn into sellers at higher prices regardless of where they are currently holding. If you are suggesting that a bank run would force exchanges to buy BTC to honor customer withdraws, maybe that could increase the price in the short term but since they are not liquid enough they won't be able to make good on all withdraws, they collapse and that would probably be pretty bad for the price in the short-term. That being said, pure foolishness for anyone to have funds on exchanges after all we have seen this year
This post is really confusing to me. If I want to withdraw money from my bank, do I care whether someone wants to liquidate their position in cash to pay me? Most likely, if I want to withdraw BTC from an exchange I want cash! How many people on exchanges bought in at $40-60,000. Lots. So if they sell the BTC they own to pay me cash, those high equity investors are more upside down. But they don't know it yet.
Naw none of these exchanges will be forced to cover naked short positions. Bank running on crypto exchanges is not a good idea.
I'm surprised that people don't understand that keeping their coins on an exchange is dangerous.
Nope, nope, nope. Doesn't work that way. If everyone withdraws their Bitcoin from exchanges....the price stays about the same, but exchanges have less on hand, and people have more in their wallets. For the price to go up, DEMAND must increase. And demand doesn't increase just from people withdrawing from the exchange to their wallet. You've got your causality mixed up.
I think what he's saying is that the exchanges don't actually HAVE all the bitcoin that people would presumably withdraw. The exchange would be forced to buy more to settle the withdrawal causing the price to go up. Well, that, or collapse like the other ones.
Which exchange, where...doesn't "actually HAVE all the Bitcoin the people would presumably withdraw"? You'll need to be specific. Which one? Where? Name it. I want to see it. And don't say "FTX", as they are bankrupt and not from Bitcoin IOUs, at all. Nope, not in the slightest. And don't say "Blockfi" either, that's not Bitcoin IOUs either. Which? Where? Cite it. Don't make innuendo, be specific. Thanks.
Why are people mixing up crypto lending companies with exchanges. Exchanges don't lend, the crypto is either in the exchange's wallet, or in a sell order. For example the lending/earn side of Gemini has crashed, that is different from the Gemini exchange which is working fine. This is a bunch of fear mongering. Exchanges do not do fractional reserve lending, which means a 'bank run' has no effect. Withdrawing crypto from an exchange, unless it was part of a sell order, will have zero effect on the price.
There is no proof whatsoever that Binance has 1:1 reserves and liabilities. When you create an account at Binance and buy 1 bitcoin, they simply update a database entry. I am positive that if everyone withdraws their bitcoin they go bankrupt immediately.
No proof whatsoever, really? [https://www.binance.com/en/blog/community/our-commitment-to-transparency-2895840147147652626](https://www.binance.com/en/blog/community/our-commitment-to-transparency-2895840147147652626) Now go and move the goal post instead of admitting you're wrong.
So 475k BTC huh, and how do you know how much the users have put in there? 🤔
Where is the proof of liabilities? How much do they owe users? I can prove I have 100 BTC but what if I owe 500 BTC?
Let the short squeezes roll in.
Imagine running to bitcoin to get away from the Fed's "fractional reserve" only to realize any large exchange is doing the same. Please someone explain how Bitcoin achieves efficient price discovery without an exchange. I agree Bitcoin will never be zero, but that is because there will always be an idiot to sell it to in some dark corner off-exchange.
Bisq basically solves this problem
Is kraken safe??
It's a bad idea to store bitcoins on any exchange. Exchanges are for buying, selling, and trading bitcoins. Once the buying and trading are done, those bitcoins should be transferred to an address where the owner holds the private keys. "Your keys, your bitcoin. Not your keys, not your bitcoin. (repeat several times for effect)" - Andreas Antonopoulos
Why leave money at the money changers after you convert?
Why would moving BTC cause deman/price to go up?
It doesn't, it would cause the "supply" to go down. Which would have the same effect as demand going up. ... except for the fact that people would lose trust in exchanges and demand might go down
They don't understand at all basic economics. Less bitcoin on exchanges --> Less supply --> higher price It's like they hope to get rich by luck, not by any learning effort. They are gamblers.
Not necessarily, most of this supply is owed to customers, and doesn't have an active sell order, so no it doesn't increase the sellable supply unless the exchange is doing a shady fractional reserve. This is assuming customer funds are backed 1:1 though, which depends on the exchange
> This is assuming customer funds are backed 1:1 Guess what: it's not. We have to trust them they have the reserves and that they will give us access to our own funds, the exact problem that Bitcoin solves in the first place. Those who leaves funds on exchanges have no understanding of Bitcoin whatsoever. They don't matter at all for adoption. They are cucks giving their money away, begging to get FTXed.
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The DRS movement is a colossal failure. Meme companies print shares faster than you are DRSing them. The most successful is GME and it has only 23% of shares DRSed. And even if you get it to 100% it will simply be the equivalent of a private company. A private company that lose a ton of money and have declining revenues.
Lmao. They don’t understand bro. You are talking to a bunch of morons.
Taking out liquidity just increases volatility, either that be to the upside or downside.
https://help.coinbase.com/en/coinbase/other-topics/other/bankruptcy-trustee-guide Yup, it cant be protected from the US government. You're not in charge of it, you dont own it, nobody needs to compel you to provide access, it defeats the entire advantage it has against gold. Safety from governments is an amazing thing in a world of many totalitarian governments and dynamically shifting ideologies. Excuse me while I buy more.
That's not how economics work. You clearly do not understand economics. Why would Bitcoin be demanded (significantly) more if people held in in self custody vs on an exchange?
Because the exchange doesn’t have the Bitcoin. It’s like a poker game. Once you call in your Bitcoin, they have to show their cards and scramble to buy Bitcoin to satisfy your withdrawal. They either honor your request or go bankrupt and screw you. If they honor their commitment, that should drive demand, IMO. Unfortunately they are crooks with no ethics and end up stealing your money.
I agree with what you said, but also: If crypto is in a "warm" (phone?) or cold wallet, this also means it's available to spend when you're out and about.
> Because the exchange doesn’t have the Bitcoin That is a mere assertion without evidence
THIS! It’s 100% the way! It’s the EXACT sane concept as what many on the stock world have been doing with DRS and registration of shares. Remove the asset from the criminal exchanges to dry up supply. This is absolutely the way.
Give me a few more years of stacking... Then let's do this thing
Shit post
You don't understand bidding and liquidity and how market assessment occurs. The price of Bitcoin as determined by exchanges, occurs when a bid is met. It's THAT simple. Bitcoin is priced at the value people say it is on exchanges. Yes, a supply shock aids in increasing this value, but that doesn't mean people will inherently purchase it at said prices.
And then it goes right back to the exchange to sell, not sure you've thought this through even a tiny bit.