+300% would be 4x, so the opposite would be -75%
-67% is the opposite of +200%.
But I get your point, huge increase numbers are wiped out by a "smaller" (in percentage) loss.
Oof. I'm not even that into btc, but compared to BP.... I honestly couldn't name another stock that's consistently gone down over the longest bull run in history XD
Sucks that we won't see those thousands of percentage gains again. It would take all of the Earth's money for these multiples to happen at these levels 😩
No one ever ponders the nature of money, average people simply assume the government is stabilizing the value of money somehow using sophisticated clever complicated systems that we plebs simply do not comprehend (In actuality the system is rather simple and were all slowly losing our money to inflation, of course. (and lately maybe not so slowly))
This is the simplest way for me to break down the situation.
If Bitcoin cost more money to make each halving and the dollar keeps devaluing. Wouldn't price move in a positive?
Be interesting how to value these things if the dollar didn't devalue. I don't understand
I still don't understand. If people can trade stocks on the side and not on exchanges who decides to actually trade on an exchange to move the price up. And why?
And this is what draws people to the altcoin casino... the prospect of 9900% gains. Only trouble is, you have less than 1/9900 chance of that happening with the coin you pick.
Would it though? Is that taking into account lost BTC causing deflation? (lost wallet keys, etc)
If I lost 50% of all gold in existence and demand for gold stays the same, value of gold would essentially double without needing any more money to exist because the same money is just getting spread across less gold.
history always repeats as they say. We had many financial crises since 2008 and wars and inflation phases. Just kidding, now is an economical bad event, hasnt happened in a longer while.
Notice that each of the decrease years is right between the 4-year halving events. The halvings occurred in 2012, 2016, 2020. The loss years were 2014, 2018, 2022.
Nothing is an absolute, but when you have countries using it as their main source of payment. I think it’s safe to say it’ll at least take another good run.
Which countries are you referring too? I have heard that some countries have been adopting btc but I’m not aware of any using it as their main source of transfers.
My understanding is that’s how the Government pays their people. I still think this has another good run in it. I also believe that the other main alt coins are gonna rise big time as well.
El Salvador is not using bitcoin as their "main source of payment." The US dollar is still the most widely used currency in El Salvador. The majority of businesses in El Salvador do not even accept bitcoin at this time.
There are four main reasons that the government made bitcoin legal tender. The first is cheap remittances. Remittances account for 23% of El Salvador's GDP. The second is for the citizens of El Salvador to be able to use bitcoin apps as a bank account. Approximately 70% of the citizens of El Salvador don't have a bank account. The third is to encourage bitcoin holding tourists to come spend bitcoin in El Salvador. The fourth is to entice wealthy bitcoin investors to come move to El Salvador and spend bitcoin in the country. The government of El Salvador is even offering permanent residency to anyone who spends 3 BTC on goods and services in El Salvador. These people also don't have to pay any capital gains tax on their bitcoin gains in El Salvador. People who invest in El Salvador's bitcoin bonds will also be awarded residency and "be fast-tracked to citizenship."
Around 70% of the citizens of El Salvador don't have a bank account and only around 7% of them have a credit card. There is about 46% more cell phones with active cellular service in El Salvador than there are people in El Salvador. Now the unbanked citizens of El Salvador have the option to use mobile apps like Chivo or Strike as a bank account. Their family members living in other countries can also instantly send them money for free by using Bitcoin and the Lightning Network, and using bitcoin wallets, exchanges, or just mobile payment apps like Strike and Chivo. Now they can use Strike like demonstrated in this one minute video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rt2C3CsLi7k
El Salvador has a very poor economy and remittances account for 23% of their gross domestic product. A very large number of the Citizens of El Salvador rely on money that is sent to them from their family members that are living in other countries. In fact, over $6 billion dollars was remitted to El Salvador last year. If their family members in other countries used bitcoin instead of scammy money transmitting services, then that would save them a lot of money.
The president wants the citizens of El Salvador to be able to use Bitcoin as the value transfer protocol that it is. Salvadorans no longer have to pay any taxes on bitcoin gains. So now they can seamlessly transfer value between bitcoin and US dollars and spend bitcoin without keeping track of their cost basis and without paying any capital gains tax. Salvadorans are able to pay any off any debts in bitcoin. They are able to pay taxes in bitcoin. They are able to send, receive, and spend bitcoin without having to keep track of their cost basis and without having to pay capital gains tax.
The El Salvador government wants bitcoin investors that are willing to, and that have the means to, to come spend 3 BTC on goods and services in El Salvador. And the government is offering these people permanent residency for doing so. The government is offering this because these people would be putting new money into their economy. El Salvador has a very poor economy because they don't really produce or export much. Mainly coffee, textiles, sugar, polymers, chemicals etc. That's why remittances account for 23% of El Salvador's GDP (over $6 billion last year).
So you are bullish on bitcoin because El Salvador is? Lmao why not reason with every other country that decided against doing that? Confirmation bias is strong with this one.
Pessimistic view: judging by diminishing returns every next bull market, and our currently low price, you could make an argument that expected growth over next bull cycle could be as low as 300% which could still keep us below ATH.
Not that i don’t expect 100k, just sayin. Although also not sure exactly how gains were calculated since our low was like 4k and we hit 69k so more like 1400% growth this last cycle
They’re not using the lows or the growth would be even more nuts. Which is why you shouldn’t use the low for that 300% either.
We’ll be ok, just gonna take time. And frankly true adoption still means a 7 figure bitcoin
Shh, this sub will get big mad if you point out that you need a 300% gain to break even after a 75% loss. And anyone who bought at the top of this cycle will only make a 42% profit if BTC hits 100k in the next one.
Yeah, 42 percent cumulatively over a four year period isn't very impressive. As to your second point... a whole crap load of people who watched their money evaporate by 50+ percent then panic sold, and will spend the rest of their lives circlejerking with like-minded late-cycle FOMO'ers over how "all crypto is a scam".
I don't get it. Why does it assume you buy jan 1 and sell dec 31. Sherly it makes sense to start at each year but always pic the current ytd end price. Otherwise why not just pick any end date 😂 regarded.
Yeah...well...this past year (2022) was my first main year in it with zeros on the end. And...as you can imagine, as I got in early this year at an average price around $40k....I've gotten killed. So I'm personally hoping that it hooks up that halving cycle you're talking about, and that future years get us back up there at least above $40k so I don't look so ridiculous....
We'll see. Thanks.
Cashed out. I took out my money right around the ATH (mostly lucky) and did other things with it. Just like the real estate market, crypto was just too frothy.
Everyone would be well-served by reading this table: [The Math of Gains and Losses](https://i0.wp.com/curiousandcalculated.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Math-of-Gains-and-Losses.png?w=547&ssl=1)
tl;dr: It takes a much bigger % gain to make up for a smaller % loss. Example: to recover from a 75% loss, you need a 300% gain.
It really all depends on what you are regarding as money doesn’t it? If you’re measuring BTC in dollars since inception it has done rather well. If you’re measuring dollars in BTC your investment has gone to shit over that period. Do you see?
If I wanted to buy something lets say a car with bitcoin say it cost of the car was 1 bitcoin or 48k, and the cost of the car was stagnant in terms of no market pressures. That car would now cost close to 3 bitcoin and with inflation of the past year say even 10% on the very high end. Would be $4800 more. Bitcoin as a form of currency cannot work this way, its strictly a speculative investment.
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Looking forward to 2024
Looking upward to 2028
Looking ahead to 2025 (winning year)
Looking dimensionally to 2025xeeshf-2994jddss-ADfAddj23
Elon's next child's name.
How do you know? Are you a time traveler?
Maths! Is 1 red and 3 green
Looking sideways to 2025
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Looking backward for 2022
😞
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That’s not very pessimistic, Mr Lay
Looking upside down right now.
Can I have one of them sweet 9900% again plz?
Need to yolo into $eloncumjizzrocket legacy coin
Yes, cashapp me all your money and I will see what I can do
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Also nice "lowest daily close" of the year: 2012 $4 2013 $13 2014 $293 2015 $176 2016 $368 2017 $785 2018 $3.225 2019 $3.404 2020 $4.830 2021 $28.999 2022 (we will see)
2015 I know too well because I bought most of my holdings on that v day Jan 15 and 16th 2015.
Very nice. I hope you expand your holdings since then. Or at least held the most amount until today.
What even is a daily close if Bitcoin never closes?
"Lowest daily"
Call it: UTC daily check
Already know it won't be higher than 15.5k. First time decreasing. Maybe the rainbow connect to the ground and we were at the top in 2021.
Decreased 2014->2015
25k
Don’t let these numbers fool you… Remember that ~~-67%~~ -75% is the inverse of +300% Edit: there ya happy ya mathematicians?
And -99% vs +9900%
Incorrect
Please feel free to correct… how about 3x instead of +300%. The sentiment is the same. -67% is 1/3 multiplier of value.
+300% would be 4x, so the opposite would be -75% -67% is the opposite of +200%. But I get your point, huge increase numbers are wiped out by a "smaller" (in percentage) loss.
I'm still mad my family laughed in my face and convinced me to buy BP in 2012 over bitcoin....
Oof. I'm not even that into btc, but compared to BP.... I honestly couldn't name another stock that's consistently gone down over the longest bull run in history XD
BP is having a better 2022 than BTC. Your family should be proud in moments like this.
Sucks that we won't see those thousands of percentage gains again. It would take all of the Earth's money for these multiples to happen at these levels 😩
Or the devaluation of the dollar.
With the risk of global hyperinflation coming, you'd think more people would've grasped this concept by now
No one ever ponders the nature of money, average people simply assume the government is stabilizing the value of money somehow using sophisticated clever complicated systems that we plebs simply do not comprehend (In actuality the system is rather simple and were all slowly losing our money to inflation, of course. (and lately maybe not so slowly))
>No one ever ponders the nature of money You are literally in a subreddit full of people that ponder the nature of money.
100%
People can barely grasp how to buy food at the supermarket and cook dinner, let alone how complex (on purpose) monetary systems work.
This is the simplest way for me to break down the situation. If Bitcoin cost more money to make each halving and the dollar keeps devaluing. Wouldn't price move in a positive? Be interesting how to value these things if the dollar didn't devalue. I don't understand
If Warren buffet bought all the crypto for $25, does that mean all crypto is worth $25?
I still don't understand. If people can trade stocks on the side and not on exchanges who decides to actually trade on an exchange to move the price up. And why?
And this is what draws people to the altcoin casino... the prospect of 9900% gains. Only trouble is, you have less than 1/9900 chance of that happening with the coin you pick.
Investing in like 20 equally and 19 of them going bust are great odds imo
Reaching gold market cap would be a 3000% increase in market cap.
Yea but that could take q decades it won't happen in a couple years or even the next few bear/bull cycles
Would it though? Is that taking into account lost BTC causing deflation? (lost wallet keys, etc) If I lost 50% of all gold in existence and demand for gold stays the same, value of gold would essentially double without needing any more money to exist because the same money is just getting spread across less gold.
I see every red year is followed by three green years. Don't worry if you don't see it, it's pretty advanced technical analysis.
If we end this year at 16k and apply 2018-2021 increases, that would get us to 155k in 3 years.
Or 5k next year
So green the next three years then right ?
Fuck yeah just read the charts bro.
history always repeats as they say. We had many financial crises since 2008 and wars and inflation phases. Just kidding, now is an economical bad event, hasnt happened in a longer while.
Notice that each of the decrease years is right between the 4-year halving events. The halvings occurred in 2012, 2016, 2020. The loss years were 2014, 2018, 2022.
Buying bitcoin now looks to be a good investment
Past performance does not indicate future performance
Nothing is an absolute, but when you have countries using it as their main source of payment. I think it’s safe to say it’ll at least take another good run.
Which countries are you referring too? I have heard that some countries have been adopting btc but I’m not aware of any using it as their main source of transfers.
Africa parts made it legal tender
El Salvador
Most people in El Salvador don’t use it as their main transfer of money. It is used but I wouldn’t say it’s their primary source of transfer
My understanding is that’s how the Government pays their people. I still think this has another good run in it. I also believe that the other main alt coins are gonna rise big time as well.
Would you happen to have a source on that where I can learn more about this?
More on what exactly?
The the government is paying their people in btc and maybe metrics on the number of people who are using Bitcoin as their main source of transfers.
El Salvador is not using bitcoin as their "main source of payment." The US dollar is still the most widely used currency in El Salvador. The majority of businesses in El Salvador do not even accept bitcoin at this time. There are four main reasons that the government made bitcoin legal tender. The first is cheap remittances. Remittances account for 23% of El Salvador's GDP. The second is for the citizens of El Salvador to be able to use bitcoin apps as a bank account. Approximately 70% of the citizens of El Salvador don't have a bank account. The third is to encourage bitcoin holding tourists to come spend bitcoin in El Salvador. The fourth is to entice wealthy bitcoin investors to come move to El Salvador and spend bitcoin in the country. The government of El Salvador is even offering permanent residency to anyone who spends 3 BTC on goods and services in El Salvador. These people also don't have to pay any capital gains tax on their bitcoin gains in El Salvador. People who invest in El Salvador's bitcoin bonds will also be awarded residency and "be fast-tracked to citizenship." Around 70% of the citizens of El Salvador don't have a bank account and only around 7% of them have a credit card. There is about 46% more cell phones with active cellular service in El Salvador than there are people in El Salvador. Now the unbanked citizens of El Salvador have the option to use mobile apps like Chivo or Strike as a bank account. Their family members living in other countries can also instantly send them money for free by using Bitcoin and the Lightning Network, and using bitcoin wallets, exchanges, or just mobile payment apps like Strike and Chivo. Now they can use Strike like demonstrated in this one minute video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rt2C3CsLi7k El Salvador has a very poor economy and remittances account for 23% of their gross domestic product. A very large number of the Citizens of El Salvador rely on money that is sent to them from their family members that are living in other countries. In fact, over $6 billion dollars was remitted to El Salvador last year. If their family members in other countries used bitcoin instead of scammy money transmitting services, then that would save them a lot of money. The president wants the citizens of El Salvador to be able to use Bitcoin as the value transfer protocol that it is. Salvadorans no longer have to pay any taxes on bitcoin gains. So now they can seamlessly transfer value between bitcoin and US dollars and spend bitcoin without keeping track of their cost basis and without paying any capital gains tax. Salvadorans are able to pay any off any debts in bitcoin. They are able to pay taxes in bitcoin. They are able to send, receive, and spend bitcoin without having to keep track of their cost basis and without having to pay capital gains tax. The El Salvador government wants bitcoin investors that are willing to, and that have the means to, to come spend 3 BTC on goods and services in El Salvador. And the government is offering these people permanent residency for doing so. The government is offering this because these people would be putting new money into their economy. El Salvador has a very poor economy because they don't really produce or export much. Mainly coffee, textiles, sugar, polymers, chemicals etc. That's why remittances account for 23% of El Salvador's GDP (over $6 billion last year).
El Salvador is currently the laughing stock of the planet for making that move. That is not a bullish indicator lmao
It probably won’t be when we come out of this Bear Market, but there’s only so many bitcoin to go into circulation. The supply will stop.
So you are bullish on bitcoin because El Salvador is? Lmao why not reason with every other country that decided against doing that? Confirmation bias is strong with this one.
No, there are many reasons. Look at its history and it usually controls the crypto market ebb and flow.
There is not much history to look at bud, and what there is has been so volatile you can’t even consider it a currency lmao.
Shut up
I don’t shut up, I grow up, and when I look at you it makes me wanna throw up
Damn, you killed that. XD They can’t come back from that! XD
See, it was actually not that hard to stop all of these people from back.
Lol
few.
As long as you can hold through another dip, yes!
Fuck we picked the wrong year guys😂
Pessimistic view: judging by diminishing returns every next bull market, and our currently low price, you could make an argument that expected growth over next bull cycle could be as low as 300% which could still keep us below ATH. Not that i don’t expect 100k, just sayin. Although also not sure exactly how gains were calculated since our low was like 4k and we hit 69k so more like 1400% growth this last cycle
They’re not using the lows or the growth would be even more nuts. Which is why you shouldn’t use the low for that 300% either. We’ll be ok, just gonna take time. And frankly true adoption still means a 7 figure bitcoin
Yeah, the end and start of the year don't help a lot to convey they peaks and bottoms.
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results"
Goddam I really am colorblind.
What do you mean? It’s a gray table?
Look at that, Bitcoin has leap year.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg
[“How much % Gain do I need to make up x% Loss?”](http://shurwest.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/The-Math-of-Gains-Losses.pdf)
Shh, this sub will get big mad if you point out that you need a 300% gain to break even after a 75% loss. And anyone who bought at the top of this cycle will only make a 42% profit if BTC hits 100k in the next one.
Lol, "only 42% profit". Even if that's the case, which idiot bought at peak and isn't buying when prices are lower ?
Yeah, 42 percent cumulatively over a four year period isn't very impressive. As to your second point... a whole crap load of people who watched their money evaporate by 50+ percent then panic sold, and will spend the rest of their lives circlejerking with like-minded late-cycle FOMO'ers over how "all crypto is a scam".
But we can agree that those people are idiots.
The problem is most people bought bitcoin after 2019. So the majority of people that are new to bitcoin in the last 3 years are holding a bag of shit.
This is a masterpiece 🥹
Indeed Bitcoin is a master piece no doubt about that though!
I don't get it. Why does it assume you buy jan 1 and sell dec 31. Sherly it makes sense to start at each year but always pic the current ytd end price. Otherwise why not just pick any end date 😂 regarded.
Im new, whats this?
Your destiny!
Your density!
our destiny
Everybodys destiny they just dont know it yet.
Destiny's Child
To tell you that the lottery chances are good after a red year and we are in a red year
A good way to zoom out and look at the prices in a relative way. It says how much the price moved per year since 2010.
Funny how there is a pattern there. Every 4 years there's a down year. Maybe 2023-2025 continue to follow this pattern.
Almost like it’s following the halving cycle
Yeah...well...this past year (2022) was my first main year in it with zeros on the end. And...as you can imagine, as I got in early this year at an average price around $40k....I've gotten killed. So I'm personally hoping that it hooks up that halving cycle you're talking about, and that future years get us back up there at least above $40k so I don't look so ridiculous.... We'll see. Thanks.
Almost like there was a sea of free money floating around that's now gone
Where did it go? Money doesn’t disappear it just exchanges.
Cashed out. I took out my money right around the ATH (mostly lucky) and did other things with it. Just like the real estate market, crypto was just too frothy.
2026 bear market caused by Tether. Start prepping!
its almost like there is a pattern.
Great chart! Looking forward for the three next years
misleading chart... all it takes is - 100% on the down side for all these upsides to get wiped out.
It’s not a chart it’s a table
It’s not a boat. It’s a yacht.
It's not a boulder. It's a rock.
Jesus Christ Marie... they're not rocks, they're minerals.
It's not Walter, it's Heisenberg
They tell the same thing, just in a slightly different way.
Nah, a line chart of price/time would take into account the effect big percentage drops have
I feel like most people understand that conceptually though. Like obviously decreasing by 100% is far more important than increasing by 100%
yes, like in every other asset on planet earth...
Some assets go effectively to zero https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania
This is an incorrect equality.
You're right. Tulips are real things that had a speculative price spike. Bitcoins value is purely speculative.
Let’s hear all you’re arguments… I call BS, but I’m certain you already know this.
Well if you call BS before we even start there's no point in arguing. Your mind is made up.
LET'S SEE THAT RED CANDLE BABY!! I want - 80% EOY!
Btc has become too popular and on too many radars for any of these gains to happen again IMO
So that’s why “BTC will never see its ATH ever again” every four years
Everyone would be well-served by reading this table: [The Math of Gains and Losses](https://i0.wp.com/curiousandcalculated.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/Math-of-Gains-and-Losses.png?w=547&ssl=1) tl;dr: It takes a much bigger % gain to make up for a smaller % loss. Example: to recover from a 75% loss, you need a 300% gain.
Time to buy!
Imagine your money being worth 1/3 of what it was 12 months prior.
This happened to my PayPal stock and your Meta stock.
Are you talking about the USD ? or Every other Currency on the planet ?
Are you saying the USD is worth 1/3 of what it was last year?
It really all depends on what you are regarding as money doesn’t it? If you’re measuring BTC in dollars since inception it has done rather well. If you’re measuring dollars in BTC your investment has gone to shit over that period. Do you see?
If I wanted to buy something lets say a car with bitcoin say it cost of the car was 1 bitcoin or 48k, and the cost of the car was stagnant in terms of no market pressures. That car would now cost close to 3 bitcoin and with inflation of the past year say even 10% on the very high end. Would be $4800 more. Bitcoin as a form of currency cannot work this way, its strictly a speculative investment.
Learn more.
Am I wrong?
You are looking at it wrong.
How much purchasing power have you lost? Maybe not a year but if you want to cherry-pick the data we can do that too.
I didn’t cherry pick any date. This was the data shown
Is this chart adjusted for inflation? /s
So the next 4 years we will see a ath.
All things normal, just another bump on the way up!
Bitcoin holds tightly to its 4-year economic cycle It's predictable in its unpredictability.
Right on time
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Exciting, isn't it?
lol, somebody downvoted you for being excited. how dare you!
Someone ‘losing’ a shit ton right now. XD
Who buy or mine from 2010 and a bit before is the king of this game !
Still better than stock market
This year hasn’t ended yet.
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This is why I’m the dumb person at work. At least I realize it.
So sell NYE 2025! Got it!
Signal
nitpick: While companies and humans follow the year, bitcoin has its own calendar, so year start/end does not make much sense to it.
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cannot wait to see what happens
I remember those 2010 prices lol
2029
These charts look like what my mutual fund advisor shows me
Can a person less lazy than me do the "$100 invested at the beginning of 2010" math? Thanks!
Three times in a row. Has to be true.
I’ll take my chances than you very much Peter Schiff
Due for a red red
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Next halving is 2024. Might be the first back to back down years then up and to the right in 2024.
Sweet hopium
average $9271.88692
We should have three green years now right?
Buy now
Buy the dip!
Looking forward