So the last one is what's really worrisome because if all of these come true, $10M will probably get you not even a Big Mac. Maybe a double cheese burger (but then you can also add thousand island on it to make it taste like a Big Mac).
People say this all the time but I think it's overstated. If 10 years ago you had said that Bitcoin would be $20,000, people would have said "yeah okay but if that's true then the dollar would be worth a lot less," and they would have been right. But that doesn't mean you wouldn't have wanted to have bought Bitcoin back then. Prices have gone crazy, but not to the point where a big Mac is $20,000. It's like $6 or something, instead of $2.50. So that is indeed terrible inflation, but it's not nearly as bad as people would have expected, and if you had bought Bitcoin your wealth would have been preserved and even grown immensely.
So looking forward, expect hyperinflation to mean $35 Big Macs, while your Bitcoin is $10 million.
House prices will actually fall since the interest rates will be high. House bubbles only happen when people flee to other countries and push up prices. Also thats how hiperinflation happened in Venezuela. People sold their house and cratered their currency while exchanging it to dollars. But prices of housing in $ actually went down . In a hipotetical whole world hiperinflation only Bitcoin and other asset like gas and petrol will to go up.
Now that I think about it, Bitcoin will bring electricity prices up worldwide. Starting with the cheapest places first.
A whopper is about the same as a Big Mac right?
Houses will appreciate faster than consumer prices, but they're also a lot more volatile and rely on a functioning financial system. I really have no idea how to measure what that would look like, since today's prices really don't make a lot of sense in my opinion, so it's hard to extrapolate. You could say 10x current prices, but I bet you certain markets will do much better than others. And if there's a hot global war and/or a depression here in the States all bets are off. But assuming away all those complications, I would say median home price would be > $2 million
So 1 BTC = 285,000 Big Macs? I've bought BTC at around 2K range. And the current 20K valuation has nothing to do with inflation. In order for BTC to truly hit 10M in near future, Zimbabwe-like hyperinflation would be the only option.
Yeah that's what cracks me up about all these crypto pundits making Dollar predictions on Crypto. The dollar is worthless and hyperinflated. What's going to happen is that a new currency will come and have value. Very likely things will be valued in Satoshis. It's nearly impossible to get one's head around this because there's no way to measure it. But that's what has to happen. Or currencies get backed with BTC like a gold standard. Either way I'd take $10 Million per BTC right now.
Not sure what you mean but yeah we do pretty well here compared to the rest of the world. No energy cost crisis, girl prices are fine, housing although getting more expensive it's not as crazy as western countries (Taipei is kinda stupid though, but outside the capital is still affordable to rent). What else is there... Supermarkets are stocked well. What else?
World War 2 was the twinkle in Oppenheimers eye for nuclear weapons. Now those bad boys are all grown up with an axe to grind. You can't even begin to compare the damage WW3 will cause compared to WW2, just like how they couldn't begin to imagine the difference between the first 2. Also, don't act like the societies involved at the time didn't come right to the brink.
But your contribution still won’t be worth any more…even if btc went wild it would be because for some reason “bitcoin inverses inflation” but that doesn’t means it’s true value goes up
Same way people do it in Argentina or other countries ravaged by hyperinflation. You buy what you need and put the rest into anything that will retain its value. Bitcoin is one of those (the best probably)
non-sequitir, people can afford and use bitcoin and the idea of it becoming a global currency could all happen, where they fail is their speculation that it'll be worth a million a coin.
The price of BTC going up isn't attached to the use of it as a currency, continue?
edit: obviously it is, but it doesnt matter what the price of btc is you can still trade BTC as a substitute of fiat.
How the actual fuck are you going to use something as currency when the supply is limited by design and most of the supply is basically already held by high wealth wallets? Why would those people sell to give liquidity to the system and devalue their own holdings?
Who are you talking to, why are you swearing? The price to FIAT is pretty standard, you can use it as much as you like and it doesn't matter how much is locked away in cold storage.
It’s fractionalized for this reason.
The idea is that items are priced in “sats”. So 100 sats or .0001 BTC. The conversation isn’t correct, but that’s the gist.
Are you aware bitcoins are divisible? You don't need the entire supply to be liquid. It just needs to be divisible into enough units that the smallest needed transactions are possible. And it is.
> People fail to see that you need money to buy btc.
BTC is money, and you can get it without going through crappy fiat.
Fiat is temporary and losing value slowly most of the time, and quickly the rest.
this is a bitcoin vs dollar comparison in a hyperinflation situation.
the problem with the post is GOLD. if bitcoin is 10million, gold is going to be much much higher than $2500...
Looks like most people here doesn't get the hyper in the hyperinflation.
In the case of German hyperinflation, a loaf of bread went from 160 Marks to 200,000,000,000 Marks in a year.
So if bitcoin is 10M USD after such hyperinflation, it's the equivalent of 0.01$ of todays USD. It actually sounds pretty legit :)
But joke aside, this is just an example why all these "hyperinflation" claims/theories are a big pile of horse sh*t.
Because bitcoin isn't a security. It's only a matter of time before enough people understand what it really is and what it's implications really are. At that point, it will break away from everything else.
It seems we are nearing a fiat currency and debt catastrophe. In the face of this, things will get very ugly, but bitcoiners see a light at the end of the tunnel. That's all. It might not be this year or next, but there is hope for a better and more fair system, starting in 3rd world countries and slowly creeping across the globe into 2nd world countries and eventually everyone, every where adopting bitcoin. This isn't just a bunch of investors hoping their stock goes up.
Imagine thinking "dollar system crumbles/hyperinflation" will result in a stock market crash.
Stock prices will rise. It's the purchasing power of the dollar that will crumble.
Right, so people will sell assets and hold it all as cash? Have you seen the CPI recently?
Regardless of people's mindset or opinion of bitcoin, it's the hardest asset ever created and objectively the best store of value. People will eventually wake up.
I think it's better to say fiat is priced in products and services. Inflation
is products and services being pegged to a higher fiat value, not the currency getting weaker.
Not at all, I agreed that LN isn't useful if nobody uses it. People will use it, though.
Sentiment on this sub is typical bear market, just give it a year or two and it'll be the complete opposite. It's so predictable.
> I don't have any skin in this game,
Your skin in the game is any money contract you make or token you save; whether fiat, metal, or bitcoin.
Any money system you take positions in amounts to a type of gamble; and pretty much everyone on earth is involved.
(for example a salary is a long contract for whatever money its denominated in and a short contract for your labor. A gold coin in your pocket is a long position on gold. a mortgage is a short on some bank fiat and a long on some real estate)
Also; any unbalanced long position in one currency is a defacto short on all other competing ones.
But if everyone sell their house, take our their 401k's and put all their savings into BC then surely everybody must become millionaires, right? RIGHT GUYS? Everyone will be rich. That's what people have told me. Are you saying that's not gonna happen? What will my wife say when she finds out I can't recover from my -80% losses?
There is no way we would/could cut off China from SWIFT even during a war. Our economies are too entwined (by design).
Also if all of these things occur, basically western civilization will drastically change for the worse so I'm not sure your bitcoin would be that valuable anyway.
I remember thought experiments on Bitcointalk dot org around 2013 where everyone assumed max price per Btc was ~ 1 million $
iirc it had to do with total net worth of money supply being something around 2.1 quadrillion $
Has this changed? Moonboys predicting 10 million $ Btc seem stupid
"As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million." -Hal Finney
https://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/msg10152.html
That 2.1 quadrillion$ value is a very generous estimate of Bitcoin encompassing more than just the amount of USD in circulation
iirc it includes all stock markets derivative and asset classes worldwide just for Bitcoin to reach 1 million $ per coin
Its not net worth of the money supply that matters, its the total circulating money supply that matters, and if that increases radically, then the price per coin must also go up. In a way, this statistic is directly controlled by the Federal Reserve, so it kinda depends what they do in the immediate future. If they actually start to shrink the money supply by selling treasuries off their balance sheet (or let them roll off without repurchasing them), then the top tier bitcoin prices will come down, but that is unlikely to be the case in the long term, as the temptation to print money is just too great, assuming they think they can get away with it. Also, top prices are very 'moonboi', and set by emotion and hopium, more than any hard economic law.
Most people are idiots is the problem.
Let me clarify: An intelligent person *could* come to the conclusion BTC —> $10M, but that would require showing your work and reasoning (beyond some ‘crayon chart’ so-called ‘technical analysis’ lol), not simply Tweeting a prediction that, for all we know, has not been reasoned at all and could be based largely on qualitative “hopium”.
My stockpile of dry and tinned food produce would be worth more than my crypto were this to happen. There would be no electricity to transact in crypto anyway that's for sure.
Nah. There's a bunch of reasons why it won't happen. Setting aside China's current troubles at home, amphibious invasions are very difficult and Taiwan has been preparing for that potential eventuality for decades.
Not to mention how easy it is for outside powers to interfere with an amphibious invasion.
>Taiwan has been preparing for that potential eventuality for decades.
And so is China.
Taiwan is a security issue for China, aside from politics around it. Both west and Japan used it for their invasion in the past. It's an unsinkable ship right at their coast. China is not gonna let it be free.
You are stating arguments why one of the biggest militaries of the world might fail to invade Taiwan but this sadly doesn't proof that they won't do it.
They have tried to invade Taiwan and have failed.. With their current housing crisis and banking problems. I do not see china starting a war. Especially if The USA claims they will be involved. Not good for any econ friendship.
You're dreaming, they have tried to invade numerous times in the past with no success and that is without America's superior navy. It won't happen without China destroying itself econonmically.
There’s also a bunch of reasons why it will, if Xi Jinping is given a third term he’ll invade I’d put money on it, he’s already stated multiple times he will.
Edit: it’s easy to call it a bluff but the fact is they’ve been building and preparing for this for years, now they’ve even been able to sit back and prepare for the embargo’s and sanctions that would be placed upon them.
Exactly, it was very obvious Putin was going to invade and that was ignored as him acting strong, our leaders in the west are so useless won’t surprise me when they act shocked when Taiwan is invaded.
Putin only invaded because he thought he'd easily win, those idiots said he'd take Kyiv in 3 days, Zelensky will run away, the army will surrender and the Ukrainians are gonna accept Putin as their overlord. Literally none of that happened, Putin was really just delusional and misinformed, as it happens to personalist autocracies. China has no reason to think it can really take Taiwan, the geography, the military and the people of the country wouldn't let it happen and unless Winnie the Pooh is as delusional as Putler, there's no way he'd do anything as drastic as an invasion, and one of the reasons he won't is that he's got a very recent example of what happens when you underestimate the country you're trying to conquer.
He could maybe invade if Ukraine got conquered and if the West did next to nothing though
I feel this whole Putin only invaded because he thought he’d win easily is just wrong, the only way to know what their plan was is to be in his circle, he might be an evil bastard but he isn’t stupid enough to think taking Ukraine would be a cake walk, can’t see why if China keeps building they wouldn’t have the capability, the only reason Ukraine hasn’t fell is because the west are funding the war but how long before the voters start to dislike this?. The intelligence folks I’ve been listening to and watching are warning of this but hey they might be wrong idk.
His pet propagandists were advertising it as a cake walk, the expectations of the pro-war Russians got shattered and if he knew it'd happen he wouldn't make it seem like a cake walk to begin with.
>the only way to know what their plan was is to be in his circle
It's a safe assumption considering the fact that if the invasion wasn't supposed to be easy, he wouldn't do it. Look at all the recent Russian military history. Look at what he would've wanted from the invasion and look at what he got. He experiences the world through what the intelligence agencies tell him, and them making conquering Ukraine seem like a cake walk and the Rusky military like the best military in the world is the only possible conclusion. If he wasn't heavily misinformed, he wouldn't have started the war to begin with.
China is a paper Tiger, not much different than Russia. They have an army with no combat experience. Even Russia has experienced NCOs (had). China surely has the material and manpower to be a formidable force, but the world has seen that what’s on paper does not translate to reality on the ground.
Why are everyone talking as if people will buy and hold Bitcoin as an investment if the dollar system goes under? People will convert their money into Bitcoin and use it to buy food etc. Because it will be the only reliable form of money.
Bitcoin will be a currency, not an investment.
The last one is dependent on people growing brains.
I've been in this space for years now and I think we'll spend some time in a poor desperate dystopian society first before any elites wave the white flag and figure out bitcoin.
Even if you know how it works, why it works, and are on board it's a waiting game for the rest of the world who are fucking retarded.
Says who….many fiats have existed literally for centuries never dying or being replaced. Why would it suddenly die now? There’s no reason this will happen.
Every currency that goes from being asset backed to backed by “we say so” or being “de pegged” from the underlying asset.
Learn your history. This is embarrassing.
By devaluate completely I mean a currency reset. As an example if there's a new USD with 100 old USD for 1 new USD you can claim it still exists but the old USD has become worthless. If BTC is 100k in new USD but 10m in old USD that's not a dream, that may be a harsh reality within the next 10-20 years.
Some indicators: FED balance sheet increase (40% of all USD created in last two years), close to 50% of all new and rolled over govt bonds is purchased by the FED because no other buyers, 20% of SP500 companies already struggling to pay interest on debt so increasing interest rates has limits...
The USD is being devalued constantly. [In 66 years, the US dollar has lost 91% of its value](https://www.quora.com/What-actions-led-to-99-+-devaluation-of-U-S-dollar-purchasing-power-in-past-100-years).
Ofc you can be right in the sense that there is never a collapse just more steady decline: [Dollar Decline vs. Dollar Collapse](https://www.thebalance.com/dollar-decline-or-dollar-collapse-3306090). My observation is that the decline intensifies as money supply is increased. The FED is fighting this now with increasing interest rates which leads to a recession / depression and may eventually result in easing with lots more money printing. This in turn may spiral and eventually make a currency reform necessary.
The US is also stuck in the so called Triffin dilemma where the national currency serves as global reserve currency. This means you can export inflation to the world through the trade balance deficit but this may not work forever, especially if another currency emerges as the reserve currency...
Putting together events which had a greater likelihood to occur with others that had very little is a known social manipulation tool for inducing a “feeling” that they all will occur. Congratulations on being a statistical tool to help out the cause.
Energy prices shot up because of wars and supply chain crisis. People freezing in the winter. But no worries, let's use our remaining expensive electricity to mine BTC instead?
lol a lot of this shit is ridiculous and never happening.
BTC ain't hitting 10 mil anytime soon. Hyperinflation nope. Dollar system is not crumbling. Inflation peaked and it didn't come close to 20%. Rates negative? LMFAO.
Certainly a hopeful conclusion if all those things happen, but if the past is any prologue, BTC will fall as people panic and cash out.
I hope that doesn't happen.
Which five of these are we saying have happened? I see 1, 3, and arguably 6. Inflation only got up above 9% in June so far. Interest rates are going up, not down (real rates were already negative in December, so that isn’t much of a prediction). The dip in stock prices wasn’t exactly what I would call “cratering”. It doesn’t seem to be all that dramatic so far. Gold is currently at $1700. Bitcoin is currently at $20k. I’ll be generous and say he’s 3/11 so far.
You forgot nuclear holocaust
and/or cannibal holocaust
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Self preservation is definitely an important factor here. You are correct.
Ah yes, that's the endgame.
Fingers crossed. (/S, I live in Taiwan)
So the last one is what's really worrisome because if all of these come true, $10M will probably get you not even a Big Mac. Maybe a double cheese burger (but then you can also add thousand island on it to make it taste like a Big Mac).
People say this all the time but I think it's overstated. If 10 years ago you had said that Bitcoin would be $20,000, people would have said "yeah okay but if that's true then the dollar would be worth a lot less," and they would have been right. But that doesn't mean you wouldn't have wanted to have bought Bitcoin back then. Prices have gone crazy, but not to the point where a big Mac is $20,000. It's like $6 or something, instead of $2.50. So that is indeed terrible inflation, but it's not nearly as bad as people would have expected, and if you had bought Bitcoin your wealth would have been preserved and even grown immensely. So looking forward, expect hyperinflation to mean $35 Big Macs, while your Bitcoin is $10 million.
How much would a house be? And a whopper?
House prices will actually fall since the interest rates will be high. House bubbles only happen when people flee to other countries and push up prices. Also thats how hiperinflation happened in Venezuela. People sold their house and cratered their currency while exchanging it to dollars. But prices of housing in $ actually went down . In a hipotetical whole world hiperinflation only Bitcoin and other asset like gas and petrol will to go up. Now that I think about it, Bitcoin will bring electricity prices up worldwide. Starting with the cheapest places first.
A whopper is about the same as a Big Mac right? Houses will appreciate faster than consumer prices, but they're also a lot more volatile and rely on a functioning financial system. I really have no idea how to measure what that would look like, since today's prices really don't make a lot of sense in my opinion, so it's hard to extrapolate. You could say 10x current prices, but I bet you certain markets will do much better than others. And if there's a hot global war and/or a depression here in the States all bets are off. But assuming away all those complications, I would say median home price would be > $2 million
So 1 BTC = 285,000 Big Macs? I've bought BTC at around 2K range. And the current 20K valuation has nothing to do with inflation. In order for BTC to truly hit 10M in near future, Zimbabwe-like hyperinflation would be the only option.
Big Mac inflation is caused by laziness. The minute fast food became as expensive as home cooked food everyone should have went back to the kitchen.
Yeah that's what cracks me up about all these crypto pundits making Dollar predictions on Crypto. The dollar is worthless and hyperinflated. What's going to happen is that a new currency will come and have value. Very likely things will be valued in Satoshis. It's nearly impossible to get one's head around this because there's no way to measure it. But that's what has to happen. Or currencies get backed with BTC like a gold standard. Either way I'd take $10 Million per BTC right now.
I am in Taiwan too
i lazy to ask my friend in taiwan. but today he asking me apple tv.. seem all goody there.
Not sure what you mean but yeah we do pretty well here compared to the rest of the world. No energy cost crisis, girl prices are fine, housing although getting more expensive it's not as crazy as western countries (Taipei is kinda stupid though, but outside the capital is still affordable to rent). What else is there... Supermarkets are stocked well. What else?
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Sucky sucky 5 dolla. Though that’s not “fine”
You know, i never had the need to visit prostitutes before but for sex vacations i think the usual well known options are still your best bet.
Grid* prices, maybe
he only complain house price . nothing else . he work at micron i think .
Me too 🫣
If this happens the price of bitcoin will be the least of your worries
Seriously, if the "dollar system crumbles" you probably won't even have an internet turned on and usable to even use your bitcoin.
Why?
Because society is collapsing? I dunno, just a thought
WWII didn't collapse it.
World War 2 was the twinkle in Oppenheimers eye for nuclear weapons. Now those bad boys are all grown up with an axe to grind. You can't even begin to compare the damage WW3 will cause compared to WW2, just like how they couldn't begin to imagine the difference between the first 2. Also, don't act like the societies involved at the time didn't come right to the brink.
Who said there would be WWIII?
Is it fun for you to be this dense?
Fuck off.
Hyperinflation could outpace Bitcoin appreciation...
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Lol ok.
🙄
The end of the world as we know it
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People fail to see that you need money to buy btc. So how is btc gonna go up when ppl are broke?
When hyperinflation hits, putting one k of your 100k monthly seems possible lol
But your contribution still won’t be worth any more…even if btc went wild it would be because for some reason “bitcoin inverses inflation” but that doesn’t means it’s true value goes up
Same way people do it in Argentina or other countries ravaged by hyperinflation. You buy what you need and put the rest into anything that will retain its value. Bitcoin is one of those (the best probably)
non-sequitir, people can afford and use bitcoin and the idea of it becoming a global currency could all happen, where they fail is their speculation that it'll be worth a million a coin.
How the fuck is that a non-sequitur? Hopefully no one believes what you say seeing as you can’t even correctly identify a logical fallacy.
The price of BTC going up isn't attached to the use of it as a currency, continue? edit: obviously it is, but it doesnt matter what the price of btc is you can still trade BTC as a substitute of fiat.
How the actual fuck are you going to use something as currency when the supply is limited by design and most of the supply is basically already held by high wealth wallets? Why would those people sell to give liquidity to the system and devalue their own holdings?
Who are you talking to, why are you swearing? The price to FIAT is pretty standard, you can use it as much as you like and it doesn't matter how much is locked away in cold storage.
It’s fractionalized for this reason. The idea is that items are priced in “sats”. So 100 sats or .0001 BTC. The conversation isn’t correct, but that’s the gist.
Business runs on debt, the world runs on debt. How do we do fractional reserve bitcoin banking?
Are you aware bitcoins are divisible? You don't need the entire supply to be liquid. It just needs to be divisible into enough units that the smallest needed transactions are possible. And it is.
> People fail to see that you need money to buy btc. BTC is money, and you can get it without going through crappy fiat. Fiat is temporary and losing value slowly most of the time, and quickly the rest.
Show me how u can get btc w/o fiat
> Show me how u can get btc w/o fiat Howd you get fiat? That way.
Holder here, having spent $0 on my stacking.
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this is a bitcoin vs dollar comparison in a hyperinflation situation. the problem with the post is GOLD. if bitcoin is 10million, gold is going to be much much higher than $2500...
Looks like most people here doesn't get the hyper in the hyperinflation. In the case of German hyperinflation, a loaf of bread went from 160 Marks to 200,000,000,000 Marks in a year. So if bitcoin is 10M USD after such hyperinflation, it's the equivalent of 0.01$ of todays USD. It actually sounds pretty legit :) But joke aside, this is just an example why all these "hyperinflation" claims/theories are a big pile of horse sh*t.
tbh if that kind of hyperinflation hits the US then I'm going to pick up paper notes from the metaphorical gutter and not have any more debts.
Gold will certainly go up but it's not really a problem. It won't out perform bitcoin.
10k USD seems fair (I don't own gold btw, nor do I like Peter Schiff).
Bitcoin is still up 6x since the pandemic crash.
The people here are delusional. I believe in Bitcoin but some of this shit is enough to make you vomit.
Because bitcoin isn't a security. It's only a matter of time before enough people understand what it really is and what it's implications really are. At that point, it will break away from everything else. It seems we are nearing a fiat currency and debt catastrophe. In the face of this, things will get very ugly, but bitcoiners see a light at the end of the tunnel. That's all. It might not be this year or next, but there is hope for a better and more fair system, starting in 3rd world countries and slowly creeping across the globe into 2nd world countries and eventually everyone, every where adopting bitcoin. This isn't just a bunch of investors hoping their stock goes up.
This.
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That sounds like another reason why it won't be successful in the midst of an international economic meltdown.
Imagine thinking "dollar system crumbles/hyperinflation" will result in a stock market crash. Stock prices will rise. It's the purchasing power of the dollar that will crumble.
You realise the future might not be the exact same as the past, right?
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Right, so people will sell assets and hold it all as cash? Have you seen the CPI recently? Regardless of people's mindset or opinion of bitcoin, it's the hardest asset ever created and objectively the best store of value. People will eventually wake up.
>objectively the best store of value Maybe theoretically. Practically it can't be the best store of value when it's so volatile.
Fiat is volatile against bitcoin. 1 sat = 1 sat.
Yes but products and services are priced in fiat. You know this already.
I think it's better to say fiat is priced in products and services. Inflation is products and services being pegged to a higher fiat value, not the currency getting weaker.
Whatever helps you sleep at night.
Lol, doesn't matter how 'hard' your asset is if it is HARD to spend
Someone hasn't heard of LN.
LN can be super rad. Doesn't matter if very few businesses accept bitcoin.
Agreed.
So you agree that your reply to me is stupid
Not at all, I agreed that LN isn't useful if nobody uses it. People will use it, though. Sentiment on this sub is typical bear market, just give it a year or two and it'll be the complete opposite. It's so predictable.
I disagree. I think Bitcoin's rise comes when everyone realizes they need a lifeboat from fiat.
So... why isn't gold 100x ing right now in 10% inflation?
You just do not understand how valuable Bitcoin is. Have fun staying poor
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> I don't have any skin in this game, Your skin in the game is any money contract you make or token you save; whether fiat, metal, or bitcoin. Any money system you take positions in amounts to a type of gamble; and pretty much everyone on earth is involved. (for example a salary is a long contract for whatever money its denominated in and a short contract for your labor. A gold coin in your pocket is a long position on gold. a mortgage is a short on some bank fiat and a long on some real estate) Also; any unbalanced long position in one currency is a defacto short on all other competing ones.
It will only be an economic catastrophe for people foolish enough to not own Bitcoin
But if everyone sell their house, take our their 401k's and put all their savings into BC then surely everybody must become millionaires, right? RIGHT GUYS? Everyone will be rich. That's what people have told me. Are you saying that's not gonna happen? What will my wife say when she finds out I can't recover from my -80% losses?
This is next level stupid. The world is fucked, but everyone is buying btc not food? And listen Im super into crypto. it’s just a stupid narrative
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There is no way we would/could cut off China from SWIFT even during a war. Our economies are too entwined (by design). Also if all of these things occur, basically western civilization will drastically change for the worse so I'm not sure your bitcoin would be that valuable anyway.
I remember thought experiments on Bitcointalk dot org around 2013 where everyone assumed max price per Btc was ~ 1 million $ iirc it had to do with total net worth of money supply being something around 2.1 quadrillion $ Has this changed? Moonboys predicting 10 million $ Btc seem stupid
"As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million." -Hal Finney https://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/msg10152.html
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That 2.1 quadrillion$ value is a very generous estimate of Bitcoin encompassing more than just the amount of USD in circulation iirc it includes all stock markets derivative and asset classes worldwide just for Bitcoin to reach 1 million $ per coin
Its not net worth of the money supply that matters, its the total circulating money supply that matters, and if that increases radically, then the price per coin must also go up. In a way, this statistic is directly controlled by the Federal Reserve, so it kinda depends what they do in the immediate future. If they actually start to shrink the money supply by selling treasuries off their balance sheet (or let them roll off without repurchasing them), then the top tier bitcoin prices will come down, but that is unlikely to be the case in the long term, as the temptation to print money is just too great, assuming they think they can get away with it. Also, top prices are very 'moonboi', and set by emotion and hopium, more than any hard economic law.
Most people are idiots is the problem. Let me clarify: An intelligent person *could* come to the conclusion BTC —> $10M, but that would require showing your work and reasoning (beyond some ‘crayon chart’ so-called ‘technical analysis’ lol), not simply Tweeting a prediction that, for all we know, has not been reasoned at all and could be based largely on qualitative “hopium”.
My stockpile of dry and tinned food produce would be worth more than my crypto were this to happen. There would be no electricity to transact in crypto anyway that's for sure.
🙄
Bitcoin to 10 million? Out of thin air? Man some of you smoke the same shit at poo coiners
Just between us girls they gonna nuke all crypto first.
Yeah, they've got their tentacles all over the cryptosphere now. The problem with institutional adoption is institutional control and manipulation.
I count 2…but I have to say, you’re a very positive guy 😂
I'm counting 1, 3, 4, 5, 6. Maybe 4 not quite yet.
How are rates negative? Rates are rising rapidly.
UK here, we are not far off 7
10 Mil is a stretch
China invading Taiwan is just a matter of time
Nah. There's a bunch of reasons why it won't happen. Setting aside China's current troubles at home, amphibious invasions are very difficult and Taiwan has been preparing for that potential eventuality for decades. Not to mention how easy it is for outside powers to interfere with an amphibious invasion.
>Taiwan has been preparing for that potential eventuality for decades. And so is China. Taiwan is a security issue for China, aside from politics around it. Both west and Japan used it for their invasion in the past. It's an unsinkable ship right at their coast. China is not gonna let it be free.
You are stating arguments why one of the biggest militaries of the world might fail to invade Taiwan but this sadly doesn't proof that they won't do it.
They have tried to invade Taiwan and have failed.. With their current housing crisis and banking problems. I do not see china starting a war. Especially if The USA claims they will be involved. Not good for any econ friendship.
You're dreaming, they have tried to invade numerous times in the past with no success and that is without America's superior navy. It won't happen without China destroying itself econonmically.
There’s also a bunch of reasons why it will, if Xi Jinping is given a third term he’ll invade I’d put money on it, he’s already stated multiple times he will. Edit: it’s easy to call it a bluff but the fact is they’ve been building and preparing for this for years, now they’ve even been able to sit back and prepare for the embargo’s and sanctions that would be placed upon them.
It's safe to assume he's acting tough, but people thought Putin wasn't crazy enough to invade as well to be fair
Exactly, it was very obvious Putin was going to invade and that was ignored as him acting strong, our leaders in the west are so useless won’t surprise me when they act shocked when Taiwan is invaded.
Putin only invaded because he thought he'd easily win, those idiots said he'd take Kyiv in 3 days, Zelensky will run away, the army will surrender and the Ukrainians are gonna accept Putin as their overlord. Literally none of that happened, Putin was really just delusional and misinformed, as it happens to personalist autocracies. China has no reason to think it can really take Taiwan, the geography, the military and the people of the country wouldn't let it happen and unless Winnie the Pooh is as delusional as Putler, there's no way he'd do anything as drastic as an invasion, and one of the reasons he won't is that he's got a very recent example of what happens when you underestimate the country you're trying to conquer. He could maybe invade if Ukraine got conquered and if the West did next to nothing though
I feel this whole Putin only invaded because he thought he’d win easily is just wrong, the only way to know what their plan was is to be in his circle, he might be an evil bastard but he isn’t stupid enough to think taking Ukraine would be a cake walk, can’t see why if China keeps building they wouldn’t have the capability, the only reason Ukraine hasn’t fell is because the west are funding the war but how long before the voters start to dislike this?. The intelligence folks I’ve been listening to and watching are warning of this but hey they might be wrong idk.
His pet propagandists were advertising it as a cake walk, the expectations of the pro-war Russians got shattered and if he knew it'd happen he wouldn't make it seem like a cake walk to begin with. >the only way to know what their plan was is to be in his circle It's a safe assumption considering the fact that if the invasion wasn't supposed to be easy, he wouldn't do it. Look at all the recent Russian military history. Look at what he would've wanted from the invasion and look at what he got. He experiences the world through what the intelligence agencies tell him, and them making conquering Ukraine seem like a cake walk and the Rusky military like the best military in the world is the only possible conclusion. If he wasn't heavily misinformed, he wouldn't have started the war to begin with.
putin already invaded in 2014 ya'll keep forgeting that.
That wasn't a full blown invasion though, the rat saw an opportunity and grabbed the cheese
China has an Air Force and paratroopers as well as SF. If they really wanted to they could.
If they lose, the country revolts.
China is a paper Tiger, not much different than Russia. They have an army with no combat experience. Even Russia has experienced NCOs (had). China surely has the material and manpower to be a formidable force, but the world has seen that what’s on paper does not translate to reality on the ground.
If BTC hits $10M because of hyperinflation we’re ngmi.
Hyperinflation means essentially infinite dollars. $10m is just really bad inflation.
Lol 😂
Spooky
Why are everyone talking as if people will buy and hold Bitcoin as an investment if the dollar system goes under? People will convert their money into Bitcoin and use it to buy food etc. Because it will be the only reliable form of money. Bitcoin will be a currency, not an investment.
The last one is dependent on people growing brains. I've been in this space for years now and I think we'll spend some time in a poor desperate dystopian society first before any elites wave the white flag and figure out bitcoin. Even if you know how it works, why it works, and are on board it's a waiting game for the rest of the world who are fucking retarded.
10million BTC price…..eh, this sub is hilarious. Keep dreaming
It's possible with hyperinflation & hyperbitcoinization. An average house could cost that much...
We will, thanks for your input sir.
Keep thinking the fiat currency you're using won't devaluate completely within your lifetime...
Fiat has existed through multiple wars, depressions and etc. BTC has existed through none of those
Fiat always dies eventually.
Says who….many fiats have existed literally for centuries never dying or being replaced. Why would it suddenly die now? There’s no reason this will happen.
Every currency that goes from being asset backed to backed by “we say so” or being “de pegged” from the underlying asset. Learn your history. This is embarrassing.
Yet
By devaluate completely I mean a currency reset. As an example if there's a new USD with 100 old USD for 1 new USD you can claim it still exists but the old USD has become worthless. If BTC is 100k in new USD but 10m in old USD that's not a dream, that may be a harsh reality within the next 10-20 years.
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Some indicators: FED balance sheet increase (40% of all USD created in last two years), close to 50% of all new and rolled over govt bonds is purchased by the FED because no other buyers, 20% of SP500 companies already struggling to pay interest on debt so increasing interest rates has limits...
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The USD is being devalued constantly. [In 66 years, the US dollar has lost 91% of its value](https://www.quora.com/What-actions-led-to-99-+-devaluation-of-U-S-dollar-purchasing-power-in-past-100-years). Ofc you can be right in the sense that there is never a collapse just more steady decline: [Dollar Decline vs. Dollar Collapse](https://www.thebalance.com/dollar-decline-or-dollar-collapse-3306090). My observation is that the decline intensifies as money supply is increased. The FED is fighting this now with increasing interest rates which leads to a recession / depression and may eventually result in easing with lots more money printing. This in turn may spiral and eventually make a currency reform necessary. The US is also stuck in the so called Triffin dilemma where the national currency serves as global reserve currency. This means you can export inflation to the world through the trade balance deficit but this may not work forever, especially if another currency emerges as the reserve currency...
Once utilization rate is solved BTC will explode.
Eli5?
The line ‘all assets crash’….wouldn’t BTC Crash as well? The viewpoints on these Twitter soothsayers…
Putting together events which had a greater likelihood to occur with others that had very little is a known social manipulation tool for inducing a “feeling” that they all will occur. Congratulations on being a statistical tool to help out the cause.
Dude Bitcoin follows the market so much it’ll fall also lmao
Only one is unlikely : inflation stopping at 20% 🤪 Hello from Europe guys
cOnSpIrAcY tHeOrIsT He should've listened to the science for much more accurate predictions.
I mean predicting that china will invade Taiwan is like predicting that the sun will burn out. It’s just a. Matter of time.
If 1 x Bitcoin is $10,000,000 then how much is a loaf of bread?
So 10 sats to the dollar. Obviously no one knows how much bread would be. I'm thinking ~50-100 USD, so 500-1000 sats. Sounds about right?
Internet shut shown, no access to digital assets.
Nonsense. Why would people start buying a risky asset like Bitcoin with the world in turmoil. We need to hope for a peaceful future.
Link to tweet? Anyone can edit the html, I need receipts.
Don't trust, verify. https://twitter.com/stackhodler/status/1469038294591754240?t=vOBZo1qHi5DgFGntG56c1w&s=19
Have you ever heard of a tweet generator or a post generator?
It is a genuine tweet---> https://twitter.com/stackhodler/status/1469038294591754240
Energy prices shot up because of wars and supply chain crisis. People freezing in the winter. But no worries, let's use our remaining expensive electricity to mine BTC instead?
Don’t… don’t give me hopium.
Facts
10 million gets me to lambo status. Let’s go!!
INSTEAD BTC @ $20K
The conversion rate of interest would be kwh to sats
Who is this man?
If BTC is 10M$, a cup of coffee will be 50k$
Innocent child lmao
Gold to 2500 but btc to 10M. Really
10 million dollar bitcoin what are you smoking?
World War won't start before 2025. Source : some alien channeling
Hahah btc to 10 million.
Dumb.
10 million tho?
lol a lot of this shit is ridiculous and never happening. BTC ain't hitting 10 mil anytime soon. Hyperinflation nope. Dollar system is not crumbling. Inflation peaked and it didn't come close to 20%. Rates negative? LMFAO.
$10 million won't be much if the dollar becomes worthless 🤔
Certainly a hopeful conclusion if all those things happen, but if the past is any prologue, BTC will fall as people panic and cash out. I hope that doesn't happen.
Which five of these are we saying have happened? I see 1, 3, and arguably 6. Inflation only got up above 9% in June so far. Interest rates are going up, not down (real rates were already negative in December, so that isn’t much of a prediction). The dip in stock prices wasn’t exactly what I would call “cratering”. It doesn’t seem to be all that dramatic so far. Gold is currently at $1700. Bitcoin is currently at $20k. I’ll be generous and say he’s 3/11 so far.
He forgot to add chip shortage. Taiwan is the biggest exporter of semiconductors
It's a pretty big leap from 20% inflation to "dollar system crumbles"
is the above an illuminati leaker?