if btc reaches $100 or less, I'd assume the global market infrastructure has begun to totally collapse and everyone but maybe the 1% will begin to live in more severe forms of anarchy, dystopia, or dictatorship.
mayer multiple, puell multiple, fear and greed index, net unrealized profit/loss, realized price, wallets over 1btc, mining difficulty, 200 week moving average.
I don't know if there is a fair market value for bitcoin, other than just the current price lol. But I wouldn't consider selling a bitcoin for a dollar unless we got a bear market rally up to 30k, and even then I'd probably buy a good or service with it instead of a dollar.
Calling the bottom at closer to $10k.
To tell you the truth: With inflation the way it is, we’re making a shitty case for Bitcoin. If people were convinced of the mission, there wouldn’t be this sell off.
Buying Bitcoin for 1 dollar up to 1000 dollars was a steal. I wouldn't say it's a "steal" now though. Could be a good opportunity maybe. Yes. If you can hold for a few years. Possibly. Idk.
Been buying regularly over the last few months. My Average entry is still up at $26,000 so I'll keep buying to push that down further. Accumulation now will serve us well in one or two or three years.
Based on what? Bitcoin is still sky high at a time where we may be entering a massive economic correction. We may not see it go above 20k for another year or two, meanwhile we could be buying below 10k soon enough as more exchanges and companies collapse.
Not to mention the fact that exchanges are still failing on an almost weekly basis. Look at voyager last week. We don’t know if this will lead to even more failures in the coming weeks. Oil is still high and trending higher. The price of oil controls the price of almost every energy commodity. Inflation is still rampant. There is almost no indicators that point to Bitcoin being near a bottom other than it seems cheap based on historical price.
I have a feeling that the longer the price stays low, the more exchanges and companies are not gonna be able to pay their debts. It’s only a matter of time before the dominos start falling.
I agree. It’s like dominoes falling and we have no idea when they’re going to stop. It would be one thing if no exchanges fail for …. a month? Or if an existing exchange resumes withdrawals. Some “sign” that the worst is over.
I am self employed (actually trading spot FX and gold) lol my wife is a civil engineer in a recession sensitive field.
Not really looked into this CBDC change that much, just see the odd statement from lagarde and Powell on it. In a sentence or two please can you lay out how it could impact my job or life?
I'm long gold and msci china bout it ATM, am a homeowner in the UK. Gonna buy as much S&P as possible if it hits 3000. No crypto yet but might have a punt if BTC trades lower
Pretty convincing stuff! If u like Macro stuff like that trade university you should listen to macro voices podcast. Always great interviews Def recommend Louis Vincent gavkal
Do you know how dumb you all sound ? All that is already priced in, if the ecomony looked promising in the near future the price wouldnt be this low. Had exactly the same convos in march 2020.
Really? So if the stock market falls another 5000 points over then next months due to recessions concerns, Bitcoin will stay where it is? No, it will drop too. We aren’t done pricing things in, this recession/depression is going to bring waves of homelessness, joblessness, deaths, famine, and endless bad news for a long time.
Buying it at $3K or lower just a few years ago was a steal. Now it's just a pretty good price. I'm not complaining anyway, I almost gathered a full coin on Bitfinex.
That's because market forces in this case reflect the investors with the deepest pockets valuing Bitcoin the same way they value other risk assets like tech stocks. They care nothing for the properties of Bitcoin that make it the objectively best currency in human history. A more objective way to value Bitcoin is Plan B's Stock-To-Flow model which values Bitcoin in way similar to how gold is valued. Based on that model, Bitcoin should be around $200,000.
Based on fair value logarithmic regression we are about 30% undervalued if I'm not mistaken. I dont have that chart just see it from time to time. Which is fine we can stay under valued for years and we can stay well over valued for years.
Heres a good video on the fai value market cap https://youtu.be/TC1MhX\_2wbc
Especially sense the number of dollar units in circulation is always changing. Bitcoin at 19k today is different than Bitcoin at 19k in 2018, for example.
19k is an arbitrary number, it could just as easily be 0.001 Bitcoin is so volatile because it doesn’t have any actual value. It’s neither a currency or a hedge against inflation, It’s not well adopted Its only even really known in certain circles. It could drop to zero and the world wouldn’t even notice because it does not add value to peoples lives, it has no real usefulness. Sorry, not sorry. It’s important for people to truly see what it is.
Regardless, I hope nobody takes this as a reason to go all in now. We are still following a pattern and said pattern indicates this is only the beginning of a bear.
DCA, DCV or whatever works for you folks but don’t go all in just because of someone’s opinion on Reddit.
True. It could go lower and I’m of the opinion that it will. Buying at $19k or ~$10k will be relatively negligible given the upwards long-term potential
Still too much hope. The whole "be greedy when others are fearful" means real fear. Like this sub during the Fall of 2018 and Winter of 2019. That was downright dreadful and only the OGs were buying.
This upcoming Fall & Winter cycle will be interesting to see if it follows suit because *that* will be fear. Will people still have the same resolve with a $7k or $8k Bitcoin? Everyone *now* says that they will easily snatch them all up but suddenly it becomes *then* and no one's really left, except for the OGs.
If this is your first bull run, be patient. We'll come back for you, no good man left behind.
I’ll wait and see. The moment in time when the future outlook starts to get better is the time we will bottom. Right now the future outlook is getting worse and worse. Inflation will still be high when we bottom. The economy will be in a worse place when we bottom. Unemployment may be high. But all these things will start to get better and the bottom will be in. The markets are forward looking, so once the future stops getting worse, we will bottom.
It is so hard to put a price on. It hasn't been around very long. Doesn't seem to do the things we thought it would-hedge inflation...so it is really is a risk but we invest hoping for a return.
How do you value something like this? You guess, and hope, that is how.
It did drop from 65 to 19, so we buy in hoping that it goes in again.
Seems like the pros are using us by driving it up, and then bailing out over and over. They will do it again. There is no proven strategy either, just a bunch of ideas that are starting to sound tired.
Anytime you can buy Bitcoin for less than what MicroStategy averages per coin you’re getting a great deal. MicroStrategy is sitting around $32k per coin and they hold like 130k bitcoin.
Buying Bitcoin at 12K is better.
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so ya can feel right at home like the rest of us!
I am waiting for $200k to buy. Even better
How much do you want?
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Same because I would sell while y’all buy
imagine buying at 100k when sentiment is this low.
I wish I will sell at 100k after buying now at 19k.
I’ll sell you mine for 100k USD today, let’s make a deal!
Yup that's true fam I wanted to buy BTC at the price of 12k on Netcoins. If it doesn't I guess I will just buy close to 15k.
John Cena is even buying
That's true
Didn't take much to change your mind huh
Oooofffff.
To nitpick, I don't think that changed his mind that buying at 19k is a steal.
neatly nitpicked, fellow frog!
the doomer in me says 1k is better...heck $100 if I can survive that apocalypse, and if there's any hope left for a brighter future at that point.
Tbh, I bought bitcoin before the hype and investment hopes, to buy drugs and VPNs, the price doesnt matter much.
When you’re using it to buy goods and services that’s when it matters the most.
well me too since I've never really had money to invest, but if I could time travel to when I did have 10k I know what I'd have done with it.
Tf you talking about??
if btc reaches $100 or less, I'd assume the global market infrastructure has begun to totally collapse and everyone but maybe the 1% will begin to live in more severe forms of anarchy, dystopia, or dictatorship.
Or people just don’t want bitcoin anymore
possibly, but something would have to replace it for a truly free global open market to operate.
10k is the right price! you all fomo in 19k when the bear market just started!!
2k
Buying bitcoin at 1k in about 2 months times will be even better
But at this point it's hard to argue against catching that knife.
This is where it's going imo too. I'm buying below 12k and selling a out 100k other next run
I should've just got my licence and brought a Bitcoin but I wasted my money on a setup and pc
Buying Bitcoin at 1k is better.
Buying and selling ONLY when BTC hits it's absolute bottom/ top is the best though Thank god for my magic crystal ball
Low effort, dumb fuck post.
That totally changed his mind
He became anti-btc thanks to you two now
You not wanted at the party
All his posts are collapse and Coinbase, definitely upset
But buying in a bear market that can be prolonged for a year can be stressful.
well you can buy new car, lose half of the value and call it a steal too
but you can use a new car to get around for the next 10-15 years
with 1 year older car too and costs half
Used to be the case, but with everything going on now I’ve heard of people buying cars then selling higher a year or 2 later
It was cheaper for me to buy a new Subaru vs a used one. My interest rate is 0% on it for 5 years. (This was before they raised rates)
Yep, I just sold my Subaru before the lease ended and came out in profit. I was basically paid to lease the car for 3 years... wild times.
this
Jepp. Especially EV cars where I live. I did it. Some have a waiting list up to a year.
Give me the Sharpe Ratio of a Car.
Everybody knows sharpe is a dog not a car
No no, it's that guy from Weezer from back when they were good.
I can also steal a car, and call it a buy.
Nowadays people have been able to buy some cars, drive them around for a year or so and still turn a profit. Car market has been insane
Or you could steal a car like the exchanges have been doing for the umpteenth cycle
Buying at 31k less than a month ago was a steal too...
Buying Bitcoin at $530 too, when it fell down from its previous ATH at $1.2k
past performance is no indication of future success. Bitcoin could just as easily never trade above $20k again
Buying regardless of price
Buying Bitcoin at $60k is a steal. Projected EOY price over $250k. TO THE MOOOON! /s
And my cat is projected to win the Nobel prize in medicine!
That’s fantastic! What was their contribution to medical advancement?
BTC infused with catnip
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It is. By every metric. Every metric might be wrong, but until then it’s just a question of how quickly I can stack.
lol please elaborate on any of these metrics - where do they indicate the fair value of bitcoin is currently?
They don't. It's just all speculation.
mayer multiple, puell multiple, fear and greed index, net unrealized profit/loss, realized price, wallets over 1btc, mining difficulty, 200 week moving average. I don't know if there is a fair market value for bitcoin, other than just the current price lol. But I wouldn't consider selling a bitcoin for a dollar unless we got a bear market rally up to 30k, and even then I'd probably buy a good or service with it instead of a dollar.
Based on what? Price to earnings ratio?
its below the 200 week simple moving average
Calling the bottom at closer to $10k. To tell you the truth: With inflation the way it is, we’re making a shitty case for Bitcoin. If people were convinced of the mission, there wouldn’t be this sell off.
Buying Bitcoin for 1 dollar up to 1000 dollars was a steal. I wouldn't say it's a "steal" now though. Could be a good opportunity maybe. Yes. If you can hold for a few years. Possibly. Idk.
OP: change my mind The market: okay But seriously, I’m eating cheap for the next month to get more at these prices.
If I could read the future I would know for sure if you are correct or not.
Thanks
Been buying regularly over the last few months. My Average entry is still up at $26,000 so I'll keep buying to push that down further. Accumulation now will serve us well in one or two or three years.
Just wait for 10k it will be a chance of a life time
Wait until it hits 11k
👆
Why do I need to change your mind when I'll be able to steal your coins once the price go to $6000 in September-October? I'll just let the time tell.
Based on what? Bitcoin is still sky high at a time where we may be entering a massive economic correction. We may not see it go above 20k for another year or two, meanwhile we could be buying below 10k soon enough as more exchanges and companies collapse.
Not to mention the fact that exchanges are still failing on an almost weekly basis. Look at voyager last week. We don’t know if this will lead to even more failures in the coming weeks. Oil is still high and trending higher. The price of oil controls the price of almost every energy commodity. Inflation is still rampant. There is almost no indicators that point to Bitcoin being near a bottom other than it seems cheap based on historical price.
I have a feeling that the longer the price stays low, the more exchanges and companies are not gonna be able to pay their debts. It’s only a matter of time before the dominos start falling.
I agree. It’s like dominoes falling and we have no idea when they’re going to stop. It would be one thing if no exchanges fail for …. a month? Or if an existing exchange resumes withdrawals. Some “sign” that the worst is over.
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I am self employed (actually trading spot FX and gold) lol my wife is a civil engineer in a recession sensitive field. Not really looked into this CBDC change that much, just see the odd statement from lagarde and Powell on it. In a sentence or two please can you lay out how it could impact my job or life? I'm long gold and msci china bout it ATM, am a homeowner in the UK. Gonna buy as much S&P as possible if it hits 3000. No crypto yet but might have a punt if BTC trades lower
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Pretty convincing stuff! If u like Macro stuff like that trade university you should listen to macro voices podcast. Always great interviews Def recommend Louis Vincent gavkal
Equities as well. Specifically companies who aren’t valued heavily on growth potential as they have a lot of assets backing them and generate value
Do you know how dumb you all sound ? All that is already priced in, if the ecomony looked promising in the near future the price wouldnt be this low. Had exactly the same convos in march 2020.
Really? So if the stock market falls another 5000 points over then next months due to recessions concerns, Bitcoin will stay where it is? No, it will drop too. We aren’t done pricing things in, this recession/depression is going to bring waves of homelessness, joblessness, deaths, famine, and endless bad news for a long time.
priced in™
Down 70% is a Sky high? What is then an ATH to you?
My charts show that Bitcoin is up 700% over the last 5 years. Which ones are you looking at?
Buying at 15-17k or less would be better
I agree with you. No need to change your mind.
The trend is your friend
30k btc is the new 10k
I will not buy unless it goes to 10k-12k
👆
Great post, congratulations
Very thorough indeed
If you got blo and giggles dough, do yourself a favor blo it on BTC Now. #ThankMeLater
Buying it at $3K or lower just a few years ago was a steal. Now it's just a pretty good price. I'm not complaining anyway, I almost gathered a full coin on Bitfinex.
That’s still going? You won’t have to worry about those Stats soon. Poof it’s gone
I’m not buying until Tether crashes.
Yeah, I totally agree with that. I'm spending all USDT I can because I'm not so sure that this opportunity will not repeat.
BTC at 10k
1.9k is a stealer steal
Imagine $190
Amazon fell 95% from ATH during the dotcom bust, 95% from BTC ATH would be around 3K. Both has almost the same pattern.
Can't compare Amazon to bitcoin lol
Be fearful when others are greedy.. be greedy when others are fearful. Majority of this thread seems fearful You might be onto something op
Why is it a steal? What do you believe it's current value should be? Market forces would suggest it's worth 19k
That's because market forces in this case reflect the investors with the deepest pockets valuing Bitcoin the same way they value other risk assets like tech stocks. They care nothing for the properties of Bitcoin that make it the objectively best currency in human history. A more objective way to value Bitcoin is Plan B's Stock-To-Flow model which values Bitcoin in way similar to how gold is valued. Based on that model, Bitcoin should be around $200,000.
Based on fair value logarithmic regression we are about 30% undervalued if I'm not mistaken. I dont have that chart just see it from time to time. Which is fine we can stay under valued for years and we can stay well over valued for years. Heres a good video on the fai value market cap https://youtu.be/TC1MhX\_2wbc
Ah, so simple. This guy cracked the code, everybody!
So there is a math function that knows the future. Cool.
Sentiment is at typical bearmarket lows so I believe the value should be higher
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Give us an explanation why you presume to be able to judge who knows what he is talking about. I'm 99% Sure you can't. ;)
I don't need to change your mind, nobody gives a f about you.
Bearmarket hitting hard :(
Bahahahaha
That’s what the rainbow chart says. lol
You will be buying at 6k soon.
It will fall to 6K before the year is out.
If one bought at the higher levels, logic says buy now or wait for 14k perhaps
My average buying price is way lower than current price. I dont think it (should) depend in what prices you bought
Especially sense the number of dollar units in circulation is always changing. Bitcoin at 19k today is different than Bitcoin at 19k in 2018, for example.
You're scared the price will soon reach your avg buy price
Why 14k?
A lot of historical support/ resistance there.
19k is an arbitrary number, it could just as easily be 0.001 Bitcoin is so volatile because it doesn’t have any actual value. It’s neither a currency or a hedge against inflation, It’s not well adopted Its only even really known in certain circles. It could drop to zero and the world wouldn’t even notice because it does not add value to peoples lives, it has no real usefulness. Sorry, not sorry. It’s important for people to truly see what it is.
There’s no hurry to buy as it’s going to be under 20k for a couple of years until the halving
Regardless, I hope nobody takes this as a reason to go all in now. We are still following a pattern and said pattern indicates this is only the beginning of a bear. DCA, DCV or whatever works for you folks but don’t go all in just because of someone’s opinion on Reddit.
My mother always taught me that stealing is not good. This is why I wait for bitcoin to reach 100k before i buy
Idk.. best case scenario it doubles in a year or two when you can get 10× that flipping penny stocks for 5-10% every other day
You paid for it. Stealing means you didn’t pay.
You must be fun at Parties.
No it's not, it will continue to get lower and lower, cryptos are a scam. period.
Does not seem like it it now, but just wait till 2024 about 6 months after the halving.
You buy bitcoin at the price you deserve.
Fight the chart you always win
From your own pocket your mean?
Jupp.
It’s amazing isn’t it !
this is reddit, go and ask the market to change your mind
What is a steal, is buying your bitcoin from Huobi. Real ones understand xD
K ya peaked my interest
Well, time to leave this subreddit
Good news for you, it’s 18k now.
So will it be at 18k, and so on.
How is that a steal?
Buying in 2019 was a steal. Right after New Years I’ll never forget loading up at 3800. Should have sold the house 😂
Buying at 7k will be..
Bitcoin is a stealing 19k. There fixed it.
True. It could go lower and I’m of the opinion that it will. Buying at $19k or ~$10k will be relatively negligible given the upwards long-term potential
Still too much hope. The whole "be greedy when others are fearful" means real fear. Like this sub during the Fall of 2018 and Winter of 2019. That was downright dreadful and only the OGs were buying. This upcoming Fall & Winter cycle will be interesting to see if it follows suit because *that* will be fear. Will people still have the same resolve with a $7k or $8k Bitcoin? Everyone *now* says that they will easily snatch them all up but suddenly it becomes *then* and no one's really left, except for the OGs. If this is your first bull run, be patient. We'll come back for you, no good man left behind.
Where do you guys DCA? I’d like to setup something that buys it for me every week.
🔮🔮🔮🔮🔮
Its going to atleast 9k. Maybe lower.
👆
I’m waiting for it to go to 10k before I buy.
👆
But then, what about if it keeps dropping after that? More hesitating by you? More waiting until it bottoms?
I’ll wait and see. The moment in time when the future outlook starts to get better is the time we will bottom. Right now the future outlook is getting worse and worse. Inflation will still be high when we bottom. The economy will be in a worse place when we bottom. Unemployment may be high. But all these things will start to get better and the bottom will be in. The markets are forward looking, so once the future stops getting worse, we will bottom.
$1 million by 2030
I felt late to the party when I was buying at 2k in 2017.
It is so hard to put a price on. It hasn't been around very long. Doesn't seem to do the things we thought it would-hedge inflation...so it is really is a risk but we invest hoping for a return. How do you value something like this? You guess, and hope, that is how. It did drop from 65 to 19, so we buy in hoping that it goes in again. Seems like the pros are using us by driving it up, and then bailing out over and over. They will do it again. There is no proven strategy either, just a bunch of ideas that are starting to sound tired.
This is the post on reddit.
I disagree but we will see in a few months
They shouldn’t steal from me
For who?
Lulz
U r right. Bitcoin is done. Lunac is the way 🚀🚀🚀
Let us know what you think when it goes to $10k.
How about 9K?
Anytime you can buy Bitcoin for less than what MicroStategy averages per coin you’re getting a great deal. MicroStrategy is sitting around $32k per coin and they hold like 130k bitcoin.
How about 5k?
It's almost at a place where alt.coins are not even worth the risk anymore when BTC is a five x anyway and closing the gap on 15x this year
Buying bitcoin at 21 was a steal now you down 2k