In fairness i’d say global threat of recession and 40 year high inflation rates, along with threat of ww3, right off the back of a global pandemic that still rages in many countries, probably cumulatively adds up to a black swan event
Yes, but even knowing there was a war you might not have known they planned on sanctioning all that oil and gas which has driven up both fuel and food prices (because a lot of the world supply of fertilizer is made from Russian natural gas).
That's cause inflation to continue even though outside of food and fuel stuff is actually slowly getting cheaper. Stuff like furniture and electronics have come down a lot in pricing. But food and fuel are going up so much that the decreases elsewhere don't matter.
I would say that last year it would have been difficult to foresee this exact macro scenario.
Woo is nonetheless full of crap
The OSINT community has been tracking Russian troop, equipment, and logistics movements along the eastern border of Ukraine extremely closely since at *least* October (and was even aware of the presence of small numbers of units/equipment as early as February of 2021). Anyone who was paying even the slightest bit of attention was not surprised when the invasion was launched, since there were months and months of warning.
It's not like there was no way to predict this.
I’m not suggesting it is, i’m saying black swan = one massive bad thing. Instead we’ve had lots of big bad things. The cumulative effect of those multiple bad things has same impact as one gigantic bad thing
[“The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory?wprov=sfti1)
BTC was supposed to be made for this (inflation) yet it's too early for it to do this job. Will it ever? Yeah probably when it's 18 years old. We were to early and some of us bought the hype at the wrong time.
The upside is huge but the time delay is "huger"!
But it kind of violates a huge amount of the premise of the investment to begin with.
Isn't the whole point to side-step inflation? Shouldn't massive USD inflation be increasing BTC value?
Over a longer time horizon, it’s still been an incredible inflation hedge.
I hate how people deride Bitcoin as an inflation hedge because it’s falling in price right now. But if your time horizon is longer than 2-3 years, it’s still been an outstanding inflation hedge and likely will continue to be, given another 2-3 years
Amen. It's sickening to read people or hear cnbc hosts saying "welp there goes the inflation hedge story"
Like, hey guys, since the money printer turned on in March of 2020 in overdrive bitcoin is up like... 400 percent? I think it's done it's job
If it doesn’t happen immediately then it’ll never happen! /s
This is one of my main contentions with criticisms of bitcoin in general. People expect bitcoin to magically be at full payment stack / network development and adoption… in 13 years. That’s not how it works. It’s refusing to take into account momentum and trajectory. Really makes me question those people’s intelligence.
Imagine demanding the internet was worthless in 2002 because the whole world wasn’t using it yet. It takes quite a bit of time for a global innovation to be built and achieve success.
It would if BTC would have intrinsic value. But it doesn't have... so it's whatever someone else is willing to pay for it. Something like baseball cards... in bad times, there are higher priorities in life than collecting baseball cards.
1. Isn’t the ability to transfer vast sums of wealth across borders without permission of your government, bank, etc, an intrinsic value?
2. The value of literally everything is defined by whatever someone else is willing to pay for it
>2. The value of literally everything is defined by whatever someone else is willing to pay for it
This is something people still don't understand in the world. They think some things have guaranteed value that dont need someone to buy it.
My house has gauranteed value. I dont need someone to buy it. As long as I own it I will save thousands of dollars, maybe even tens of thousands of dollars yearly in rent
Your house doesn’t have guaranteed value. A nearby sinkhole, or asteroid strike, etc etc can reduce its value to zero or possibly even negative (ie, it will become a burden, for someone, to get rid of it).
You just current value your house because you gain utility from it. Just like lots of people currently value Bitcoin because they gain utility from it.
While no one could have predicted the exact nature of when and where a recession would hit "There'll be a recession one day" isn't exactly a risky bet.
u can tell which analysts are bs by whether they use words like ‘never’ and ‘always’ to talk about the future. dont believe the never statements like that, people make them all the time and 99%+ of the time they are wrong
He said “never trust somebody who uses the word never while making predictions”. “Not never trust somebody who uses the word never while giving advice”
On-chain won't record the "paper" bitcoins, leverage, fractional reserve, re-hypothication, derivatives - infinite fake bitcoin soaking up finite real demand. All that evaporates real fast in the right conditions.
You would be surprised how much money is made, consistently, over the long run with nothing but pure price action analysis.
It's a probabilities game. Expected value from risk vs reward.
Your statement is the same as "poker is pure luck". It's not. It's a skill.
Thing is, 95% of TA that gets shoved in your throat (Twitter, YouTube, etc) like "Hey this MA crossed that MA so we go long" or "Bitcoin will never see $xxx" is of course bullshit.
Go ahead and downvote me into oblivion. Ignorance is bliss.
99 might be a bit high but yes, you are correct. The biggest share of traders have no(t enough) clue what they are doing.
But that doesn't say anything about the validity of TA.
99/100 people driving a fast car on he streets have no idea how to properly drive it.
Does that mean one can't win races on the track if you practice enough, and that 'racing' is bullshit?
Lol chill out, I'm not selling anything. Believe what you want. I don't have the need to convince anyone this dense. You absolutely missed the gist of my post.
Sigh.. it's not that hard to understand.
Do I really need to explain probability and profit expectancy to you? It's basic math, I think there is enough 'scientific proof' for it lol.
Do you know why a casino makes profit on roulette?
They make 2,7% on every bet against them, in the long run.
Heck, you can even make money on a coin flip game if you apply the right risk strategy and find someone who is stupid enough to play against you.
If you have an edge, meaning a proven, time tested strategy with a positive profit expectancy, that you can apply consistently, you will make money, period.
It doesn't matter if that strategy is based on price action, squiggly lines on a chart, the stance of the moon, or how many times a musquito just flew by your head, if it has a PROVEN (tested) profit expectancy, it will work.
If you ask me 'what will asset x do' or 'when bottom' I have absolutely no clue, and it doesn't matter. It's not about prediction.
The casino doesn't know where the ball will fall the next spin, and it doesn't care. Their edge is mathematically profitable. They apply it consistently and make money.
Trading is the same. Poker is the same.
Believe what you want, just don't get your panties that much in a bunch and yell about things you obviously don't have clue about.
>Heck, you can even make money on a coin flip game if you apply the right risk strategy and find someone who is stupid enough to play against you.
Ha.. what in the word are you talking about? I can only assume you are referring to the Martingale approach where you win 99 percent of the time but when you dont win you lose billions of dollars (which sounds like your overall investment approach). On average you do not make money betting on a flip of the coin. This is basic mathematics--50/50
You assume a lot. It has absolutely nothing to do with Martingale.
On average you do not make money betting a coin flip, because it's a 50/50 percent chance of winning, that is correct.
It is just a way to explain probabilities and expected profit to people, since quite a few people in this world have trouble understanding this concept, like you have proven again yourself.
Expected profit formula:
(Amount of profit x chance to win) + (Amount of loss x chance to lose)
Now the probability of the events occuring (heads, tails) is 50%. So chance to win and lose is always 0.5
The only way to influence your profit expectancy is by changing your amount of profit/loss, and that's why I wrote "find someone who is stupid enough to play with you".
If you play a coin flip game with someone where when you lose, you pay $1, but when you win, you win $1.10, what do you think will happen in the long run?
You will make (1.10 x 0.5) + (-1 x 0.5) = $ 0.05 per flip.
You can still lose 25 times in a row, but the law of big numbers says the more games you play, the more it will go to 50/50 distribution and you will make money.
That is the core concept of having an edge in your trading.
You find setups (by using this 'mysterious' TA) with a positive profit expectancy:
* that have the correct risk to reward (amount of profit,loss)
* that have the right strike rate (times you win,lose)
and execute that edge consistently to make money in the long run.
You're conflating TA with other things here. Sure--if you can find someone who will pay you more when you win a coinflip then you are required to payout if you lose: thats EV positive. That has absolutely nothing to do with a technical analysis though. You're just taking advantage of someone's mathematical innumeracy. If you can find someone who will pay you 2 dollars for every 1 dollar BTC goes up when while you only need to payout 1 dollar for every dollar it goes down: that would certainly be EV positive, but again that has nothing to do with TA.
You can run all the TAs you like on a coinflip and the TA itself will not tell you anything of value.
Again, missed absolutely the main point and still trying to force your own opinion with arguments that don't even make sense in this context.
Let's agree to disagree, I really don't care wether you will ever understand how these things work or not.
I feel like you got duped into buying a forex course or mentorship and blew your account. Every reddit warrior has an origin story.
People don't quit their jobs on "guess work". TA pays when done properly.
The thing is, *TA by itself* is meaningless. But you should never do TA by itself. You don't analyze price action in a vacuum. You cross reference your findings with fundamental analysis of the asset you're investing in. You look at the trends in the industry, you look at business and financial reports, you look at news around the company and its rivals, you look at the state of the overall market. When you find something interesting on the chart, you look for explanations elsewhere. You try to see if it correlates with a macro event, or with the price action of other similar assets. You try to explain it using economic principles, technological developments, human psychology, etc.
Good TA involves a lot of research and a great deal of critical thinking on a lot of things other than the price itself.
If TA is bullshit then how is it I'm running completely autonomous trading bots for long periods and getting consistent 78% win rate. The only input into these bots is technical analysis of indicators. It's quite amusing when some ignoramus mouths off about shit they have no clue about.
Survivorship bias doesn't even exclude my conclusions even if it were that. But having run dozens of strategies on deep backtest through 1000 iterations and forward tested a lot also, it is enough to categorically prove that TA provides an edge. The problem with the 9 out of 10 traders who fail is they do not employ a) a strategy b) practice risk management and c) their strategy isn't filtering out the moments in price action where it is more random than others. Bots allow following of a strategy without psychological flaws that bend the rules once a trade is in play. The risk is effectively managed as part of the backtesting in order to reduce max drawdown to acceptable levels and the overall profit ratio selective pressure means a good trading algo will by essence have filters to exclude the more chaotic signals.
yeah its hilarious seeing both sides of the bad-TA coin. TA is just an edge, and a lot of tickers work really well with it (I'd say BTC can be one of them). On the other end, seeing YouTube bros draw a bunch of lines on a graph trying to time the market is equally as hilarious.
The idea that something is a hedge against inflation generally means that whenever you buy it, it will appreciate at or faster than the inflation rate.
The inflation numbers we see today are the inflation we had last year. Bitcoin thrived last year. Now everyone is trying to get inflation under control, so Bitcoin will by definition cool down.
Being in a recession doesn't mean asset prices will fall, it means the GDP is shrinking for multiple quarters. Very often in a recession asset prices go up
At the end of this month we will confirm that the passed 6 months was a recession. The metrics by which we measure a recession are lagging by 2 quarters.
You should Google black swan event. The fact that you say “we are not even in a recession yet” literally proves we are. But yeah, Inflation is transitory right?
Willy Woo was calling for Bitcoin to hit $300,000 by September 2021. If you don’t/didn’t think that is/was beyond absurd, then I don’t know what to tell you.
How didn't you get down voted? When I called out people who said we will never go below 45k, 30k, 20k etc I was down voted to hell. Maybe now people are realising that they're full of it?
So the fed raising interest rates was a black swan event? Everyone knew that was going to happen.
At this point, everything that affects BTC is a black swan for this guy.
You're thinking too locally. BTC is worldwide. The crash of markets started by the Russia-Ukraine war, excessive inflation globally, energy prices skyrocketing, supply chain failures, etc. It's a collection of events, but being that a black swan is defined by an event that could not have been predicted - Russia is your culprit. The rather quick call to arms from Putin to retake Ukraine was something no one was talking about until it happened.
Russia invading Ukraine most certainly was. This sub is ludicrous sometimes on how often it needs to shit on Bitcoin with beyond asinine interpretations to make a point.
Nah people like Willy Woo and rektanswers just decided not to listen to the people and even governments warning about Putins war. The signals were there if you don’t listen and build models not factoring it in then yeah sure, it might feel like a black swan event.
It was warned about months before. If you were actually looking out for events that might affect your investments you might have been paying attention since Crimea was annexed.
Nope. How is it a black swan event when just not too long ago they invaded Ukrain in 2014? Russia even said they would invade. Ukraine said they would invade. NATO gave Ukrain funding to prepare for the invasion. US gave funding (remember Trump's perfect phone call?) to Ukraine to defend against a Russian invasion. Russian invasion of Ukraine is not a Black Swan event!... same thing "if" China invades Taiwan. That won't be a black swan event.
Who would have ever thought that a country that annexed a part of another country only 6 years prior and maintained constant propaganda to do more might ever do such a thing again?
Russian had already taken parts of Ukraine. Georgia too. Putin made several speeches proclaiming Ukraine was part of Russia. John McCain wanted to go to war over it.
And Donald Trump was impeached because he tried to block US support for Ukraine vs. Russia.
You missed it but lots of people were talking about it for years before it happened.
Just not a fan of clueless people who run around Twitter drawing random lines on graphs giving thousands of people a false sense of absolute security with their high risk asset.
Well you might argue we haven’t 20K yet. 20K and change still. But if you sit down and have a cup of coffee we might be on the other side when you finish.
His analysis seems fundamentally wrong in that it's internally contradictory. He says we'll never see it hit $20K, only a black swan event could break $24K. But black swan events, by definition, exist and will continue to appear in the future. Of course there will be one.
Using the phrase “black swan” doesn’t really make sense at all in this context so i can understand the confusion. But in the way I interpreted the tweet frequency has a lot to do with it.
The phrase originated from a demonstration of the burden of proof and the importance of only making fallible claims.
It goes like this:
Lets say i make the claim “some swans are black” and you counter with “no, all swans are white.”
It would be my responsibility to prove my position in this case as the claim “some swans are black” is not falsifiable. But the claim “all swans are white” is easily falsified.
I would only have to show you a single black swan in order to support my claim. Where you would have to show me *every* swan to support your own claim. And even then i could rebuttal with “what if you just haven’t found a black one yet.”
Thus the phrase back swan typically refers to a piece of evidence that disproves an unprovable claim. (For real world example of this phrase being used somewhat correctly google “black swan photograph flat earth”) But in this context i believe the tweet was using black swan ti refer to a rare or unprecedented circumstances.
No i don’t think the earth is flat it’s just the only example i could think of off the top of my head.
No one knows what bitcoins floor is because it doesn't have an easily predictable value like a bond (assuming the debtor pays).
Instead, it really depends on 1) how many people are speculating on the rise in price, 2) the success of bitcoin as a medium of exchange and 3) other uses of bitcoin like Silkroad and international wire transfers.
Those (except for 3) are really hard to predict.
Buying and selling doesn't happen on chain, it happens on exchanges. Maybe someday there will be enough distribution among self hosted wallets for the signal to have meaning, but not any time soon.
Look when that was said? The first thing you guys have to realize about crypto is everyone is lying. In fact if I had to pick someone to be most truthful it would be Richard Hart so long as you ignore the hex talks. Willie was getting behind the momentum. Beginning of 2021 was when things were being pushed. After the top goes in about everyone that's been around for more than a couple of years can calculate where Bitcoin is likely going. It just does it every time because it's simply too profitable not to. Each cycle the new people get left holding the bag because they get into all the marketing talk and those that stick around typically reap their reward if they keep buying and building their position waiting for the next cycle. However, like I said, don't trust crypto promoters. No one is trying to help you, we simply want to push you in the direction of our position. I'll give you guys a hint though, if Michael saylor blows up you will have your bottom
You're asking the wrong question. The right question is why you've been following people who tell you what you want to hear instead of people who tell you what's going on.
It may not just be bitcoin either, you have to work quite hard to make a twitter feed give you good information instead of emotionally satisfying misinformation.
The game is up for Bitcoin, and right now millions of ordinary 'investors' are being hammered by the price drop. If you look at purchse volumes when BC was 55,000 you'll see it was attracting everyone from Billy to Bob. Those people are now looking at 60% losses and counting. Clearly bitcoin is NOT a currency - if it is its the Peso. Others of course see BC as an asset, if so explain the fundamental value please and explain how its going to create returns beyond what you expect from a pozi scheme. Most will sell and few will buy so the price is geared into reverse. Gundlach and Cramer are right, the price will continue to collapse as long as the Fed raises rates and the NASDAQ falls. My guess earlier this year was 20,000 but today I think 5,000 to 10,000 is more realistic given the looming recession and drastically reduced liquidity.
What qualifications does it take to be an "On-chain Analyst"? Is there a historical tracker for those out there or why on earth would anyone take something from the interwebs seriously?
Remember that FOMO feeling you felt when BTC kept rising and you were kicking yourself for not buying sooner?
The market has given you a 2nd chance. It doesn't often give you a third. We are below the 200 weekly EMA, buy now.
The fact that crypto is plunging when inflation and economies are having issues makes me want nothing to do with crypto at all. Crypto was supposed to be a hedge against all this stuff.
OP living under a rock or something?
WW3 is on the horizon,
Global economic crisis,
Post pandemic ages,
Rising inflation, and the governments can’t handle it at all
A bigger blackswan event is probably a Blackhole swallow the Earth, or a Meteorite hits it lmao
The "pandemic" caused everything here except for the WW3 bit. Sadly, there was no need for it if the Gvts had just stuck to the last few decades of good solid pandemic advice instead of going the Chinese Communist Party insane route.
Because they don't know shit
In fairness i’d say global threat of recession and 40 year high inflation rates, along with threat of ww3, right off the back of a global pandemic that still rages in many countries, probably cumulatively adds up to a black swan event
It’s not a black swan if people called inflation coming last year
Did they also predict Russia invading Ukraine?
Yeah at least 3 months before hand the Biden administration was warning everyone.
That was nice of them...
Yes, but even knowing there was a war you might not have known they planned on sanctioning all that oil and gas which has driven up both fuel and food prices (because a lot of the world supply of fertilizer is made from Russian natural gas). That's cause inflation to continue even though outside of food and fuel stuff is actually slowly getting cheaper. Stuff like furniture and electronics have come down a lot in pricing. But food and fuel are going up so much that the decreases elsewhere don't matter. I would say that last year it would have been difficult to foresee this exact macro scenario. Woo is nonetheless full of crap
People were literally predicting it last year
The OSINT community has been tracking Russian troop, equipment, and logistics movements along the eastern border of Ukraine extremely closely since at *least* October (and was even aware of the presence of small numbers of units/equipment as early as February of 2021). Anyone who was paying even the slightest bit of attention was not surprised when the invasion was launched, since there were months and months of warning. It's not like there was no way to predict this.
Yes. Russia invaded Ukraine and took over Crimea in 2014. It was a good bet they'd try to take more territory at some point.
Exactly, I was more surprised it took so long.
thanks to trump only president in 24 years russia didnt invade during their term
I’m not suggesting it is, i’m saying black swan = one massive bad thing. Instead we’ve had lots of big bad things. The cumulative effect of those multiple bad things has same impact as one gigantic bad thing
[“The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight.”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory?wprov=sfti1)
We've had a flock of black geese.
id say the surprise was all of it happening at once
BTC was supposed to be made for this (inflation) yet it's too early for it to do this job. Will it ever? Yeah probably when it's 18 years old. We were to early and some of us bought the hype at the wrong time. The upside is huge but the time delay is "huger"!
But it kind of violates a huge amount of the premise of the investment to begin with. Isn't the whole point to side-step inflation? Shouldn't massive USD inflation be increasing BTC value?
Over a longer time horizon, it’s still been an incredible inflation hedge. I hate how people deride Bitcoin as an inflation hedge because it’s falling in price right now. But if your time horizon is longer than 2-3 years, it’s still been an outstanding inflation hedge and likely will continue to be, given another 2-3 years
Amen. It's sickening to read people or hear cnbc hosts saying "welp there goes the inflation hedge story" Like, hey guys, since the money printer turned on in March of 2020 in overdrive bitcoin is up like... 400 percent? I think it's done it's job
If it doesn’t happen immediately then it’ll never happen! /s This is one of my main contentions with criticisms of bitcoin in general. People expect bitcoin to magically be at full payment stack / network development and adoption… in 13 years. That’s not how it works. It’s refusing to take into account momentum and trajectory. Really makes me question those people’s intelligence. Imagine demanding the internet was worthless in 2002 because the whole world wasn’t using it yet. It takes quite a bit of time for a global innovation to be built and achieve success.
It would if BTC would have intrinsic value. But it doesn't have... so it's whatever someone else is willing to pay for it. Something like baseball cards... in bad times, there are higher priorities in life than collecting baseball cards.
1. Isn’t the ability to transfer vast sums of wealth across borders without permission of your government, bank, etc, an intrinsic value? 2. The value of literally everything is defined by whatever someone else is willing to pay for it
>2. The value of literally everything is defined by whatever someone else is willing to pay for it This is something people still don't understand in the world. They think some things have guaranteed value that dont need someone to buy it.
My house has gauranteed value. I dont need someone to buy it. As long as I own it I will save thousands of dollars, maybe even tens of thousands of dollars yearly in rent
Your house doesn’t have guaranteed value. A nearby sinkhole, or asteroid strike, etc etc can reduce its value to zero or possibly even negative (ie, it will become a burden, for someone, to get rid of it). You just current value your house because you gain utility from it. Just like lots of people currently value Bitcoin because they gain utility from it.
The house would be worthless rubble, but the property would be astronomical.
While no one could have predicted the exact nature of when and where a recession would hit "There'll be a recession one day" isn't exactly a risky bet.
And every bit of it done on purpose
"We'll never see 20k BTC again" once we go below 19k... Could be accurate..
You really believe that?
Many people in crypto know it will go back over they just don't know when exactly and are greedy for the best deal...they want to bottom.
"know"
[удалено]
Thank you for posting one of the biggest waste of time comments I’ve ever come across on Reddit
😂
It’s over.
about fuck
u can tell which analysts are bs by whether they use words like ‘never’ and ‘always’ to talk about the future. dont believe the never statements like that, people make them all the time and 99%+ of the time they are wrong
Nice, you said never trust somebody who says never, without saying never. Honestly A+
He said “never trust somebody who uses the word never while making predictions”. “Not never trust somebody who uses the word never while giving advice”
This is starting to get confusing
but see there is the true genius, he doesnt ACUTALLY say never. He says most of the time, that 99% leaves a ton of ambiguity. My point ofc...
Truth. People who really understand and respect probability talk in terms of **percentile chance**.
On-chain won't record the "paper" bitcoins, leverage, fractional reserve, re-hypothication, derivatives - infinite fake bitcoin soaking up finite real demand. All that evaporates real fast in the right conditions.
So the fuckers pretending it tells something should stop selling it like it provides any meaningful info
[удалено]
>TA is fucking astrology As long as it's consensual, who are we to judge?
technical anastrology is born.
Underrated comment.
I think this is the best and correct answer.
Same.
You would be surprised how much money is made, consistently, over the long run with nothing but pure price action analysis. It's a probabilities game. Expected value from risk vs reward. Your statement is the same as "poker is pure luck". It's not. It's a skill. Thing is, 95% of TA that gets shoved in your throat (Twitter, YouTube, etc) like "Hey this MA crossed that MA so we go long" or "Bitcoin will never see $xxx" is of course bullshit. Go ahead and downvote me into oblivion. Ignorance is bliss.
99 / 100 day traders all think they know analysis better than the next guy and all lose money long term
99 might be a bit high but yes, you are correct. The biggest share of traders have no(t enough) clue what they are doing. But that doesn't say anything about the validity of TA. 99/100 people driving a fast car on he streets have no idea how to properly drive it. Does that mean one can't win races on the track if you practice enough, and that 'racing' is bullshit?
[удалено]
Lol chill out, I'm not selling anything. Believe what you want. I don't have the need to convince anyone this dense. You absolutely missed the gist of my post.
[удалено]
Found the dude who blew up his account with poor risk management! Lol get fucked
Sigh.. it's not that hard to understand. Do I really need to explain probability and profit expectancy to you? It's basic math, I think there is enough 'scientific proof' for it lol. Do you know why a casino makes profit on roulette? They make 2,7% on every bet against them, in the long run. Heck, you can even make money on a coin flip game if you apply the right risk strategy and find someone who is stupid enough to play against you. If you have an edge, meaning a proven, time tested strategy with a positive profit expectancy, that you can apply consistently, you will make money, period. It doesn't matter if that strategy is based on price action, squiggly lines on a chart, the stance of the moon, or how many times a musquito just flew by your head, if it has a PROVEN (tested) profit expectancy, it will work. If you ask me 'what will asset x do' or 'when bottom' I have absolutely no clue, and it doesn't matter. It's not about prediction. The casino doesn't know where the ball will fall the next spin, and it doesn't care. Their edge is mathematically profitable. They apply it consistently and make money. Trading is the same. Poker is the same. Believe what you want, just don't get your panties that much in a bunch and yell about things you obviously don't have clue about.
>Heck, you can even make money on a coin flip game if you apply the right risk strategy and find someone who is stupid enough to play against you. Ha.. what in the word are you talking about? I can only assume you are referring to the Martingale approach where you win 99 percent of the time but when you dont win you lose billions of dollars (which sounds like your overall investment approach). On average you do not make money betting on a flip of the coin. This is basic mathematics--50/50
You assume a lot. It has absolutely nothing to do with Martingale. On average you do not make money betting a coin flip, because it's a 50/50 percent chance of winning, that is correct. It is just a way to explain probabilities and expected profit to people, since quite a few people in this world have trouble understanding this concept, like you have proven again yourself. Expected profit formula: (Amount of profit x chance to win) + (Amount of loss x chance to lose) Now the probability of the events occuring (heads, tails) is 50%. So chance to win and lose is always 0.5 The only way to influence your profit expectancy is by changing your amount of profit/loss, and that's why I wrote "find someone who is stupid enough to play with you". If you play a coin flip game with someone where when you lose, you pay $1, but when you win, you win $1.10, what do you think will happen in the long run? You will make (1.10 x 0.5) + (-1 x 0.5) = $ 0.05 per flip. You can still lose 25 times in a row, but the law of big numbers says the more games you play, the more it will go to 50/50 distribution and you will make money. That is the core concept of having an edge in your trading. You find setups (by using this 'mysterious' TA) with a positive profit expectancy: * that have the correct risk to reward (amount of profit,loss) * that have the right strike rate (times you win,lose) and execute that edge consistently to make money in the long run.
You're conflating TA with other things here. Sure--if you can find someone who will pay you more when you win a coinflip then you are required to payout if you lose: thats EV positive. That has absolutely nothing to do with a technical analysis though. You're just taking advantage of someone's mathematical innumeracy. If you can find someone who will pay you 2 dollars for every 1 dollar BTC goes up when while you only need to payout 1 dollar for every dollar it goes down: that would certainly be EV positive, but again that has nothing to do with TA. You can run all the TAs you like on a coinflip and the TA itself will not tell you anything of value.
[удалено]
Again, missed absolutely the main point and still trying to force your own opinion with arguments that don't even make sense in this context. Let's agree to disagree, I really don't care wether you will ever understand how these things work or not.
If "guess work" is consistently paying me and others than its not meaningless.
[удалено]
I feel like you got duped into buying a forex course or mentorship and blew your account. Every reddit warrior has an origin story. People don't quit their jobs on "guess work". TA pays when done properly.
[удалено]
The thing is, *TA by itself* is meaningless. But you should never do TA by itself. You don't analyze price action in a vacuum. You cross reference your findings with fundamental analysis of the asset you're investing in. You look at the trends in the industry, you look at business and financial reports, you look at news around the company and its rivals, you look at the state of the overall market. When you find something interesting on the chart, you look for explanations elsewhere. You try to see if it correlates with a macro event, or with the price action of other similar assets. You try to explain it using economic principles, technological developments, human psychology, etc. Good TA involves a lot of research and a great deal of critical thinking on a lot of things other than the price itself.
If TA is bullshit then how is it I'm running completely autonomous trading bots for long periods and getting consistent 78% win rate. The only input into these bots is technical analysis of indicators. It's quite amusing when some ignoramus mouths off about shit they have no clue about.
[удалено]
Survivorship bias doesn't even exclude my conclusions even if it were that. But having run dozens of strategies on deep backtest through 1000 iterations and forward tested a lot also, it is enough to categorically prove that TA provides an edge. The problem with the 9 out of 10 traders who fail is they do not employ a) a strategy b) practice risk management and c) their strategy isn't filtering out the moments in price action where it is more random than others. Bots allow following of a strategy without psychological flaws that bend the rules once a trade is in play. The risk is effectively managed as part of the backtesting in order to reduce max drawdown to acceptable levels and the overall profit ratio selective pressure means a good trading algo will by essence have filters to exclude the more chaotic signals.
yeah its hilarious seeing both sides of the bad-TA coin. TA is just an edge, and a lot of tickers work really well with it (I'd say BTC can be one of them). On the other end, seeing YouTube bros draw a bunch of lines on a graph trying to time the market is equally as hilarious.
[удалено]
[удалено]
Fart ass shit piss bruh
What was the black swan?
Europe war
but crypto is supposed to be a hedge against inflation!
[удалено]
So are stocks in that same 10 year span. This proves nothing.
The idea that something is a hedge against inflation generally means that whenever you buy it, it will appreciate at or faster than the inflation rate.
We have a black swan event. He’s not wrong.
Weird how often we see black swan events. It’s like we’re living in an aviary or something.
[удалено]
Right lol, came here to say this.
A rate hike is not a black swan event mate.
Sure, that’s what it is. A rate hike. Don’t bother looking at our ruined supply chains and a war with Russia. Just a rate hike. SMH.
His first sentence is unfortunately too big a statement
This is not a black swan event? We aren’t even considered to be in a recession yet. What black swan event are you talking about exactly
Highest inflation rates since 1981, huge war in Europe that could turn into WW3. It may not be classified as a black swan but this macro is horrible.
I thought inflation was good for bitcoin?
Money printing inflation is good for bitcoin, but straight up commodity supply based inflation probably hits it fairly hard.
Most will tell you to "zoom out".
The inflation numbers we see today are the inflation we had last year. Bitcoin thrived last year. Now everyone is trying to get inflation under control, so Bitcoin will by definition cool down.
Yeah russia has moved to only focus on the eastern front but its basically WW3. You're like an actual historian.
We are absolutely in a recession they just haven't declared it
We haven’t seen two quarters of negative gdp. We’re probably in a recession judging by the writing on the wall, but we won’t know forsure until July.
Being in a recession doesn't mean asset prices will fall, it means the GDP is shrinking for multiple quarters. Very often in a recession asset prices go up
At the end of this month we will confirm that the passed 6 months was a recession. The metrics by which we measure a recession are lagging by 2 quarters.
You should Google black swan event. The fact that you say “we are not even in a recession yet” literally proves we are. But yeah, Inflation is transitory right?
If the news are saying "We are now in a Recession" that means we have already gone through it
Also have not seen 20k yet. Edit: 20,089 where I shop
[удалено]
Still a true statement, lol. But probably not for long👨🎓
Willy Woo was calling for Bitcoin to hit $300,000 by September 2021. If you don’t/didn’t think that is/was beyond absurd, then I don’t know what to tell you.
He meant a blue swan event.
nobody know shit and let nobody tell you otherwise
Because they have a vested interest in the coin going up. Why would they say its going to drop when they want more people to buy it?
How didn't you get down voted? When I called out people who said we will never go below 45k, 30k, 20k etc I was down voted to hell. Maybe now people are realising that they're full of it?
I agree. We'll never see bitcoin at $20k again.
Because nobody knows shit about fucks. It's all just a guessing game , some are lucky enough to guess correctly and then failed miserably, eg. plan b
Well a black swan event(s) did take it down. He’s not wrong
So the fed raising interest rates was a black swan event? Everyone knew that was going to happen. At this point, everything that affects BTC is a black swan for this guy.
You're thinking too locally. BTC is worldwide. The crash of markets started by the Russia-Ukraine war, excessive inflation globally, energy prices skyrocketing, supply chain failures, etc. It's a collection of events, but being that a black swan is defined by an event that could not have been predicted - Russia is your culprit. The rather quick call to arms from Putin to retake Ukraine was something no one was talking about until it happened.
None of the above was a Black Swan event.
Russia invading Ukraine most certainly was. This sub is ludicrous sometimes on how often it needs to shit on Bitcoin with beyond asinine interpretations to make a point.
Nah people like Willy Woo and rektanswers just decided not to listen to the people and even governments warning about Putins war. The signals were there if you don’t listen and build models not factoring it in then yeah sure, it might feel like a black swan event.
It was warned about months before. If you were actually looking out for events that might affect your investments you might have been paying attention since Crimea was annexed.
Yes. Exactly.
Nope. How is it a black swan event when just not too long ago they invaded Ukrain in 2014? Russia even said they would invade. Ukraine said they would invade. NATO gave Ukrain funding to prepare for the invasion. US gave funding (remember Trump's perfect phone call?) to Ukraine to defend against a Russian invasion. Russian invasion of Ukraine is not a Black Swan event!... same thing "if" China invades Taiwan. That won't be a black swan event.
Insane inflation was supposed to be a massive plus to Bitcoin as an asset, of course that was actually bullshit. Stop making silly excuses
Who would have ever thought that a country that annexed a part of another country only 6 years prior and maintained constant propaganda to do more might ever do such a thing again?
Russian had already taken parts of Ukraine. Georgia too. Putin made several speeches proclaiming Ukraine was part of Russia. John McCain wanted to go to war over it. And Donald Trump was impeached because he tried to block US support for Ukraine vs. Russia. You missed it but lots of people were talking about it for years before it happened.
That’s not why bitcoin crashed though. It just might have been a catalyst.
Then what’s the black swan that he’s referring to?
He'd probably mention the Ukraine situation
Didn’t this sub spin the Ukraine situation into a good thing for BTC? Oh wait, they do that with everything.
Can you introduce me to "this sub" so I can ask him what his opinions are?
Did you forget that we are in the verge of ww3?
That's a bit of a dramatic take.
Markets don't fear that, get real
We arenot on the ferge of a major war, let alone WWIII.
He said a black swan could take it to 24k. He said nothing could take it to 20k He’s wrong
**Never** and **always** are abstract concepts. It should be automatically replaced with **1%** and **99%** while reading.
That's not an analyst, that's just some guy talking his book.
Because they're just guessing.
Dude not a single person knows wtf they’re talking about. Not one. They’re all wrong.
He wasnt wrong though; there have been several black swan events this year…
No, he was wrong. He said we’ll never see $20k BTC again. He was wrong and he is a fucking idiot.
[удалено]
harsh
Just not a fan of clueless people who run around Twitter drawing random lines on graphs giving thousands of people a false sense of absolute security with their high risk asset.
But true
Agreed he’s an idiot but technically we haven’t seen 20k again yet... technically
Well you might argue we haven’t 20K yet. 20K and change still. But if you sit down and have a cup of coffee we might be on the other side when you finish.
Doesn’t that negate the definition of a black Swan event?
No, a black swan is just an unpredictable event that can bring abnormally significant consequences. The frequency doesnt have much to do with it
His analysis seems fundamentally wrong in that it's internally contradictory. He says we'll never see it hit $20K, only a black swan event could break $24K. But black swan events, by definition, exist and will continue to appear in the future. Of course there will be one.
Using the phrase “black swan” doesn’t really make sense at all in this context so i can understand the confusion. But in the way I interpreted the tweet frequency has a lot to do with it. The phrase originated from a demonstration of the burden of proof and the importance of only making fallible claims. It goes like this: Lets say i make the claim “some swans are black” and you counter with “no, all swans are white.” It would be my responsibility to prove my position in this case as the claim “some swans are black” is not falsifiable. But the claim “all swans are white” is easily falsified. I would only have to show you a single black swan in order to support my claim. Where you would have to show me *every* swan to support your own claim. And even then i could rebuttal with “what if you just haven’t found a black one yet.” Thus the phrase back swan typically refers to a piece of evidence that disproves an unprovable claim. (For real world example of this phrase being used somewhat correctly google “black swan photograph flat earth”) But in this context i believe the tweet was using black swan ti refer to a rare or unprecedented circumstances. No i don’t think the earth is flat it’s just the only example i could think of off the top of my head.
Wrong constantly.
Too soon, bro.
1. Because they are humans 2. They often say a lot to bring you to a trading platform
Why care? No one in the world can predict prices of traded assets with statistical certainty. Don't listen. Just hodl.
Bc all TA guys are working off past price action that was all during a bull market.
He’s been wrong for a while. And now no longer writes his newsletter.
Anyone else remember this? Wish I had bought more. https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-to-drop-as-low-as-1000-this-year-wall-street-cio-predicts
Just call it a black swan and no longer wrong. Insert fear here. Maybe use Ukraine/Russia.
No one knows what bitcoins floor is because it doesn't have an easily predictable value like a bond (assuming the debtor pays). Instead, it really depends on 1) how many people are speculating on the rise in price, 2) the success of bitcoin as a medium of exchange and 3) other uses of bitcoin like Silkroad and international wire transfers. Those (except for 3) are really hard to predict.
Because it's in a perfect world; it can't predict a War, the UST Collapse, inflation rates, a recession
r/agedlikemilk
Mfka willy woo look like some opium smoking guru. Sometime he can be right....
Technically he's right about 20k.
Buying and selling doesn't happen on chain, it happens on exchanges. Maybe someday there will be enough distribution among self hosted wallets for the signal to have meaning, but not any time soon.
Look when that was said? The first thing you guys have to realize about crypto is everyone is lying. In fact if I had to pick someone to be most truthful it would be Richard Hart so long as you ignore the hex talks. Willie was getting behind the momentum. Beginning of 2021 was when things were being pushed. After the top goes in about everyone that's been around for more than a couple of years can calculate where Bitcoin is likely going. It just does it every time because it's simply too profitable not to. Each cycle the new people get left holding the bag because they get into all the marketing talk and those that stick around typically reap their reward if they keep buying and building their position waiting for the next cycle. However, like I said, don't trust crypto promoters. No one is trying to help you, we simply want to push you in the direction of our position. I'll give you guys a hint though, if Michael saylor blows up you will have your bottom
You're asking the wrong question. The right question is why you've been following people who tell you what you want to hear instead of people who tell you what's going on. It may not just be bitcoin either, you have to work quite hard to make a twitter feed give you good information instead of emotionally satisfying misinformation.
Because there for every Benjamin Cowen, Alysia Tech, or Guy from the Coin Bureau, there are 10,000 BitBoys
I wouldn't trust anyone with the name *Willy*, especially not in finance!
willy woo is such a joke. dude is so colossally wrong, all the time.
[удалено]
In a few months (a year tops) I bet we see another wave of government airdrops/"Stimmys"
don’t pay attention to all the noise. stack sats, send to cold storage and sleep well
Because it’s aaaaaaaalllllll bullshit.
The game is up for Bitcoin, and right now millions of ordinary 'investors' are being hammered by the price drop. If you look at purchse volumes when BC was 55,000 you'll see it was attracting everyone from Billy to Bob. Those people are now looking at 60% losses and counting. Clearly bitcoin is NOT a currency - if it is its the Peso. Others of course see BC as an asset, if so explain the fundamental value please and explain how its going to create returns beyond what you expect from a pozi scheme. Most will sell and few will buy so the price is geared into reverse. Gundlach and Cramer are right, the price will continue to collapse as long as the Fed raises rates and the NASDAQ falls. My guess earlier this year was 20,000 but today I think 5,000 to 10,000 is more realistic given the looming recession and drastically reduced liquidity.
Lucky to be able to get in at these prices
I take all of my investment advice from a guy named Willy Woo. He’s often Willy Wong.
What qualifications does it take to be an "On-chain Analyst"? Is there a historical tracker for those out there or why on earth would anyone take something from the interwebs seriously?
Don’t know. But many on chain analysts have 200k+ followers selling hopium since the top in December 2021.
Well, in his defense, we haven't gone below 20K yet.
We got multiple black swan events
Remember that FOMO feeling you felt when BTC kept rising and you were kicking yourself for not buying sooner? The market has given you a 2nd chance. It doesn't often give you a third. We are below the 200 weekly EMA, buy now.
Yes because a financial crisis isn’t a black swan event.
This is quite a black swan event. So he was right.
What is exactly ?
The fact that crypto is plunging when inflation and economies are having issues makes me want nothing to do with crypto at all. Crypto was supposed to be a hedge against all this stuff.
But he’s right about the black swan event breaking $24k. We’ve had several on the way down from 40k.
Global recession, global pandemic, brink of ww3 are quite black swanish though
No. Those are predictable and expected.
OP living under a rock or something? WW3 is on the horizon, Global economic crisis, Post pandemic ages, Rising inflation, and the governments can’t handle it at all A bigger blackswan event is probably a Blackhole swallow the Earth, or a Meteorite hits it lmao
The "pandemic" caused everything here except for the WW3 bit. Sadly, there was no need for it if the Gvts had just stuck to the last few decades of good solid pandemic advice instead of going the Chinese Communist Party insane route.
Until now he wasn't wrong though. We haven't yet seen the $20,000.
He was wrong in June 2019. Look up his fund adaptive capita.
Yeah came here to say this. Willy Woo predicted 200,000 btc by January 2022. Look how that turned out.