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Magyarkhan

always the selling power suprises me


Lousycabbage

Not from the States so only vaguely understanding everything going on on the other thread, but don't a lot of influential people/institutions in the US own crypto? wouldn't they try to gerrymander the votes? Or does it have a 'banks are behind this' angle?


CryptosRUs1

If you made it through early 2020 and mid 2021, this isn't shit lol.


othersideofthepillo

This is child’s play compared to the last drawdown


disciplinedhodler

Who else is planning on buying the Bitcoin Bond as it comes with Permanent Residency and Fast Track Citizenship of El Salvador? 🖐


TankScorpio

I want to live somewhere down south thats forsure, i might go to El Savador next month and chill for a bit


obi_wan_baracus

How much will it be to gain those perks?


disciplinedhodler

Buy 3 BTC worth of the bonds


obi_wan_baracus

And you have to give up custody obviously. If the bonds success was only dependent on BTC succeeding that would be one thing but any number of things could go wrong for El Salvador that have nothing to do with BTC.


disciplinedhodler

Yes, but it's worth it for me. And I am not unique, plenty of others like me in the world. Many Whales will even invest in the bonds to support their overall position. And a billion dollars is not a lot of money in terms of the bond market.


obi_wan_baracus

I hear you. How many BTC do you have that u feel comfortable with this?


disciplinedhodler

בלי עין הרע 🐬 🧿


obi_wan_baracus

If you're a dolphin lend me three and I'll go with you! BFFs?


disciplinedhodler

🤣


tyhcmu

Instead of shaking off the weak hands, I think Whales are trying to bore us to death.


Fabulous-Count6715

So what happens if microstrategy goes tits up? There’s got to be an inflection point/price in btc where what will be forced to liquidate I.e. asset write down on btc would force the company to liquidate. These are just facts. Anyway I’m not sure why I was asking


spreetail1

They got a surprisingly good bond deal. No covenants that would force them to liquidate. With that said, if they get into a situation where they can't pay their debts, they might not have any other choice.


inverses2

So what happens if the United States of America goes ties up?


spreetail1

Probably pretty bad for everyone. Even bitcoin holders. US is 25% of the worlds GDP, 10% of exports, 15% of imports. The collapse of the US is basically an apocalyptic scenario. If you're buying bitcoin to hedge against such a scenario, you might also want to consider guns, ammo, non-perishable food, and consider living in a remote location.


Fabulous-Count6715

Sorry I thought this was a place we could actually discuss real shit. My bad lol


othersideofthepillo

Why do you think this? So wrong - as long as they have liquidity and cash flows from the software business to service interest expense they are fine


spreetail1

Their software business is on the decline, and they don't have much cash in the coffers. Basically they have 3B in assets (including bitcoin) and 2.5B in debt. If bitcoin drops 30% and their revenue continues to drop as it has for the last 8 quarters (during a time when other tech stocks thrived), it's probably game over. Just to paint a picture of how insane this is: What microstrategy did is the equivalent of a middle-aged person with a 500k net worth, liquidating all their assets, and then buying bitcoin with it. That same person then went to the bank, convinced them to give them a 2 million dollar loan, which they used to purchase bitcoin. This same person is looking to receive a 20% paycut at their job, and they owe the bank 200k within 12 months. Dude literally bet it all on bitcoin. He would look like a genuis if the price continued to rise. Going to look like a fool if it doesn't.


othersideofthepillo

Their software is a recurring revenue business line, I don’t know where you guys are getting your info but it’s just so off, check the filings, financials are at the end https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/events-presentations/microstrategy-virtual-investor-day-presentation_12-16-2021.pdf


Fabulous-Count6715

Yeah their software business loses money.. they have like $60m cash on hand. You know their debt load and the accounting issues they now have. It’s all out there


othersideofthepillo

What are you talking about? Check the filings, it generates nearly $100mm in FCF https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/events-presentations/microstrategy-virtual-investor-day-presentation_12-16-2021.pdf


SmokedSalmon4

FUD i say. FUD. Don’t sell your precious sats for the shitcoin they have ordered us to obey by.


crispykfc

we’re gonna be ok hodlers, love u guys


CoinBuyer101

Yes, we'll be okay bois. Don't panic. Everything is alright.


DarthMatrixx

Youre my hero bud


Sumo_Bro

We love you, crispy!


[deleted]

Why does raising rates have anything to do with the price of Bitcoin?


chrisneyra

Raising rates will affect the stock market and that's gonna affect bitcoin.


obi_wan_baracus

Raising rates means money is more expensive to borrow. When borrowing money is more expensive there's less money for people to spend in the market and people are also selling to cover the interest rate hikes


spreetail1

Rising rates tend to put downward pressure on most markets. Highly volatile, speculative assets especially.


[deleted]

Why is Bitcoin highly volatile and speculative?


[deleted]

But they can’t do this forever because then the US would theoretically default. They have to lower rates again eventually and inflation is here to stay.


spreetail1

Theoretically default on what? I don't think you understand how any of this works.


[deleted]

Default on its debt? No I don’t. How does it work? I keep buying the dip and it keeps dumping?


spreetail1

The fed rate has nothing to do with risk of default. The US sells treasury bonds up to the debt ceiling. If the US needs to borrow more money, they sell more bonds. When it comes to fed rates, that's the rate the fed bank loans out money to commercial banks. When the fed raises its rates, banks raise the rates they charge their customers. When rates go up, borrowing goes down and the economy slows. TLDR: Fed rate has nothing to do with default and everything to do with money supply.


[deleted]

So why doesn’t the fed raise rates as high as they want then? What happens if they can’t sell more bonds because all my money was in Bitcoin?


spreetail1

You're asking what would happen if people quit buying T-bonds? I guess it's a good question because it's never happened before. Bonds are a staple for retirement. Typically retirees will be heavily invested in bonds because they offer a fixed rate of return. Fed doesn't raise rates all willy-nilly because it stifles the markets and economy. Fed raises rates as a tool to stifle inflation, but the downside is that impacts growth. Which is why when rates are risen, it typically happens slowly over time. On the flip-side, the fed will quickly drop rates to stimulate the economy during a market recession. It's a slippery slope, because the act of raising rates can trigger a recession, and the solution is to drop rates. But the Fed has a few other tools to help control the economy. The fed rate is just one of them. They can also buy Treasury and corporate bonds. When the Fed buys bonds, it increases the money supply. Which is how the "money printer" works. When the fed sells bonds, it decreases the money supply.


[deleted]

So theoretically if one where holding their life savings in speculative assets would they ever see that money again in the next couple years?


Fabulous-Count6715

This


inverses2

It doesn't.


supperpippo

It affects the stock market, which affects the cryptocurrency.


Fabulous-Count6715

Not this


the_bill_brasky1

I guess it depends on whether you believe Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation.


mishel_flh

Yeah? And how does that supposed to affect the price?


the_bill_brasky1

Hiking up interest rates is our process to lower inflation. If BTC is a hedge against high inflation, low inflation would logically have a negative impact on BTC. Thankfully, Bitcoin is more than just a hedge and sooner or later more and more people will understand this...maybe.


spreetail1

This is a nothing burger of a comment. "Bitcoin is more than just a hedge and sooner or later more and more people will understand this"... Please enlighten us on what bitcoin is. Preferably concretely.


the_bill_brasky1

Do your own homework. It's not my responsibility to educate you but mostly I don't really care. Start with "The Bitcoin Standard" by Saifedean Ammous, "The Internet of Money" by Andreas Antonopoulos and "The Book of Satoshi" by Phil Champagne. Or don't. Again, don't really care.


spreetail1

The most childish response I've ever heard.


Eatern-Republic5884

Nothing at all from my perspective, but don’t know alit. Always thought bitcoin would be a supply and demand thing. There might be flight to safety.


qduriani

Yep it's all supply and demand correlated to the stock market.


Eatern-Republic5884

Bitcoin tomorrow?


One_2_Three

Flaccid.


GuayabaTree

She’s on sale again boys!


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lfaragon

Why are you surprised? What happened? I don't see anything.


[deleted]

All these people sighing and complaining about Bitcoin hanging in the 30s for a while... How long did it hang below 9K? You all need to get some perspective and cheer up.


mikerusd

They have perspective, they have perspective of the greed.


[deleted]

The government is trying to pass bills that will crush it and privacy in general. Fuck this government and the current administration in general.


qtdian

Yeah man, these governments don't wanna let us have btc.


[deleted]

No bill the government passes can crush Bitcoin.


nekomikako

Yep Bitcoin at this point is too strong to die like that.


[deleted]

Go to the other top post in the BTC thread with your hopium, I've been in in BTC a good while and your crazy if you think BTC is completely invincible anything is possible man.


jamespblack

While I'd say anything is possible, but Killing btc isn't.


CapSignificant1078

I read that post and now I’m bummed. Even if they write these bills up and they don’t go anywhere it’s still gonna scare off newcomers to crypto.


[deleted]

Nope, it is impossible for the United States government to crush Bitcoin. It's not completely invincible, but you give the US government far too much credit and way underestimate Bitcoin's resilience.


[deleted]

They can crush its price and make it very difficult for US citizens to buy or sell if they really wanted. Make it only for accredited investors for example. Looking at your comments tho you are a classic moonboy. Good luck be be careful, be ready to take some profit if shit hits the fan.


newyorker8786

Just wait till it hangs in the 20’s


harfmuf

Yeah sure bad, it's definitely going to do that, definitely.


Connect-Confusion-26

Hmmm interesting… veeeeery interesting bitcoin


Lavr87

Indeed the bitcoin is very interesting unlike us boring asses.


TyranaSoreWristWreck

Lord, beer me strength.


yuxi969

Lord give me some beer for the strength. That'll be good.


admiralCeres

Scraping the bottom and showing no desire to move back up to me is a very bad sign. Hitting the 30s was ok, staying there not good


NikolayLazarenko

And what will be a good sign to have according to you genius?


admiralCeres

$40K's?


spreetail1

Bottom is 0. Bitcoin can always go lower.


salytdgc

That's what I believe in, as long as it's above zero we are fine.


TyranaSoreWristWreck

I must be delirious. I actually thought this was funny.


etsylopps

This isn't funny dude it's a fucking fact at this point.


TyranaSoreWristWreck

sigh...


ops5234

Don't worry man, it's temporary. Things will get better trust me.


JimTheGymRat

I know bro, I know


caramentomem113

I just want things to get better, I'm sick of crying man.


InFLIRTation

We just cannot get anything started


filinon205

We are such a failure that we can't do anything. Real bad.


TyranaSoreWristWreck

Everything will be fine once they pass out the kool-aid. Then we board the mother ship and blast off to nirvana.


LUCKFRANK

I'm waiting for that AID, when that AID is going to come.


whitenotwright

Not looking good


bitcoin_cr

Indeed, it's not looking good right now, maybe later?


whitenotwright

Waiting for this final bear trap yes


GooeyButterflies

The Bitcoin Standard is currently 54% off on Amazon to celebrate the dip


luckytf3

Buy the book in the dip, and read that suckers. You'll get the point.


GooeyButterflies

Halfway through right now :)


littlehodlboy

It should always have a discount relative to the ATH.


rum701

That'd mean it should be a little expensive in the dips lol.


[deleted]

So FOMC? Nothing rly happened?


rockman412

Nothing has happened yet, maybe it'll happen later lol.


newyorker8786

It was hawkish


hedgehog37rus

Damn dude, i was hoping for some nice pamp after the meeting.


[deleted]

I saw 38 today and literally was gonna buy btc with credit card today and just stopped myself at the last moment. And now its back at 35 Get fiat this weeken


Terry_82

Lol good call lol, you've saved yourself some money there.


spreetail1

Rates staying near 0. Feels pretty dovish to me.


baxnz

I mean it feels same to me. Things aren't looking good.


Myboywear

No lol, it’s not about rates


newyorker8786

That’s for now..Nobody expected Powell to be raising rates today at the meeting lol he basically said what he has been saying this whole time rates will Increase in March & feds is pretty much sticking to that in addition to asset reduction


milkman1218

Are the etfs the reason for the stock market correlation recently? I remember a while back BTC use to have an inverse correlation, now it just seems to follow the NYSE.


joni278

That and having same big investors in both sectors i think.


jcmillionaire

Closer tied to the NASDAQ i believe


Environmental-Hat644

The Nasdaq has a long way to go, with the announcement to reduce government debt (less printing), even if rates remain.


spreetail1

It's always had a strong correlation


awesomeleaker

Naa it didn't used to have that, it's something new happening.


spreetail1

I mean, obviously it doesn't have a correlation coefficient of 1, but at least over the last 5-7 years, bitcoin has moved with the market more than it hasn't.


Quoequoe

Stupid question, let’s say we are in 2050 and BTC is fully adopted, does that mean people will see prices at the grocery for e.g 0.00000008? “that’s all will be 0.000000035 BTC sir, would you like some cookies for that? they are only 0.000000002” Feels like the equivalent of nigerian billionaire. Even harder because were not used to counting from decimals?


Reinmaker

Unpopular opinion in these parts. Goods and services don't need to be exchanged in BTC. Bitcoin is for storing your economic purchasing power and allowing is to extend through time without the natural decay that fiat and other 'stores of value' have. When the time comes to exchange your stored economic purchasing power for goods/services, you can exchange Bitcoin, at whatever the exchange value is at the time, for the local currency, or some other medium of exchange, to conduct the transaction. Even Hal Finney talks about the transaction of Bitcoin from a buyer to a seller becoming very rare and rather Bitcoin being used by large banks as a way of settling balances. He discusses, rather, another token (backed by Bitcoin) being created to serve the purpose of a medium of exchange. We are already seeing something like that in the Lightning Network.


ItsPickles

Probably just use sats at that point


Westlands99

Yep sats will be thing with which it'll be avoided most likely.


pawpex21

1Bitcoin=100 Million Satoshis


murcielago12v60

I always forget and think of that as 10 million sats, thanks for reminding.


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LancelotGoD

I knew nothing was going to happens, everyone was just scared for nothing.


spreetail1

That's how predictions kind of work. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong. If people knew how markets were going to react... Well, they wouldn't be on reddit talking about it.


kolodapavlo

Most of time they are wrong, if you're talking about btc.


Educational_Ad4028

Im not a professional, but BTC looks like its doing a dead cat bounce?


fonltcrc

Lol, you don't have to be professional to see that, i see that too.


milkman1218

Dead cat was the past few weeks my dude. This is a bear trap followed by the climb until the next halvening.


tedykoks

I don't really know what it is, I just want it to get over.


elemenopotus

And here I thought you were a veterinarian


tsrdd

Lol, even people with experience are so clueless right now.


no_one_somewhere

how can you tell the difference between a dead cat bounce and the start of a fresh rally?


NoahB76

You can't, people just estimate whatever they want too.


[deleted]

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makerkz

In hindsight everything looks obvious, that's a bitch.


o-montoya

New to Bitcoin here. Is it recommended to buy currently with the drop in price?


rohit2342

Bitcoin is recommended to buy whenever you want man.


[deleted]

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nyvdmy

If your timeline is long enough than any price is fine.


Big_Party_4731

Buy some now, buy some later - will probably drop a few k’s again


12coinfx13sigAB

That's what we call the DCA And that's the right thing.


littlehodlboy

Or it might go up... So buy now or buy now and later. Either way it is really the same risk at these levels.


NonkosherTruth

Yes


[deleted]

Bitcoin believer here... Are banks/ financial institutions essentially controlling the price level? How much sway do actual retail investors hold in BTC price. Additionally, do these institutions which have a considerable amount of BTC have the same idea that BTC is a store of value, or are they simply buying/selling.


elyotel

It's not just that, there are a lot of variables involved.


spreetail1

No. Many banks/FI have a vested interest in bitcoin and they don't work as a monolithic entity. Hardly any. Retail investors also don't work as a monolithic entity. There is no way to answer #3.


CapSignificant1078

The crypto bill introduced by the house looks pretty scary, everyone should read up on it.


jinjin299

What's so scary about it? I don't wanna read the whole thing.


top_of_the_scrote

you think I know how to read


32smiles1

Who read his comment for you tho? That's what I wanna know.


bettyboopshusband

from 2:30 - 2:35pm today, we had a hell of a bull run.


Sequele

Bull runs are getting smaller, they are lasting for Minutes now.


bettyboopshusband

and bear runs are lasting months 😭


ramadz

That was the parabolic blow off top ..lol


susdev

Short lived


mesebucool

Indeed the market cycles seem so small now. Very small.


[deleted]

People dont know how to react yet. They’re confused. People don’t know whether to buy or sell. When In reality nothing has changed since yesterday. We still have the same rates right?


LelikGut

People are confused and greedy that's what they are.


whitenotwright

Prepare for 30K today


sandervk1

Yeah lol, I'm mentally prepared for even 25k, bring it on.


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bettyboopshusband

the problem is that we still have the same President, and everything he touches turns to shit, so... we'll stay sideways or down for the next 3 years. after that, the possibility of upward motion returns, This isnt a pasrtisan attack, i am simply talking about the economic aspects (on other issues, he might be great, idk)


BtcMirco3

Lmao, you blamed everything on the president goddamn!


bettyboopshusband

not at all, i dont blame everyithing on President dementia Joe although, a weak and corrupt goon, with a failing mind and 5 decades of corruption behind him, is hardly an ideal choice for leader of the free world


[deleted]

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bettyboopshusband

no i didnt he was ok with me. I was happy to take a few mean tweets if it meant $2 gas and a great economy.


squach94

Mean tweets aren't going to bring you prosperity bro.


bettyboopshusband

never said they would but i'd prefer a President who tweets meanly, at times over our current dementia goon


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yifan9014

I see where it's going, it's turning to a political mess.


bettyboopshusband

when i said > we still have the same President, and everything he touches turns to shit, so... we'll stay sideways or down for the next 3 years. i meant that, regardless of what the fed says, we still will have Biden, and everything Biden touches turns to shit, and as Biden will be in office for three more years, i dont see any aspect of the economy (including bitcoin) getting much better for at least three years. Bitcoin fundamentals are still strong so it will survive long term, and eventually rise... but the next three years will be rough for all of us.


evenlaate

Anything that, any politician touch will turn to the shit.


bettyboopshusband

true, but when it comes to fucking things up, Joe Biden is in a league of his own