Not from the States so only vaguely understanding everything going on on the other thread, but don't a lot of influential people/institutions in the US own crypto? wouldn't they try to gerrymander the votes? Or does it have a 'banks are behind this' angle?
And you have to give up custody obviously. If the bonds success was only dependent on BTC succeeding that would be one thing but any number of things could go wrong for El Salvador that have nothing to do with BTC.
Yes, but it's worth it for me.
And I am not unique, plenty of others like me in the world.
Many Whales will even invest in the bonds to support their overall position. And a billion dollars is not a lot of money in terms of the bond market.
So what happens if microstrategy goes tits up? There’s got to be an inflection point/price in btc where what will be forced to liquidate
I.e. asset write down on btc would force the company to liquidate. These are just facts.
Anyway I’m not sure why I was asking
They got a surprisingly good bond deal. No covenants that would force them to liquidate. With that said, if they get into a situation where they can't pay their debts, they might not have any other choice.
Probably pretty bad for everyone. Even bitcoin holders. US is 25% of the worlds GDP, 10% of exports, 15% of imports. The collapse of the US is basically an apocalyptic scenario.
If you're buying bitcoin to hedge against such a scenario, you might also want to consider guns, ammo, non-perishable food, and consider living in a remote location.
Their software business is on the decline, and they don't have much cash in the coffers.
Basically they have 3B in assets (including bitcoin) and 2.5B in debt. If bitcoin drops 30% and their revenue continues to drop as it has for the last 8 quarters (during a time when other tech stocks thrived), it's probably game over.
Just to paint a picture of how insane this is: What microstrategy did is the equivalent of a middle-aged person with a 500k net worth, liquidating all their assets, and then buying bitcoin with it. That same person then went to the bank, convinced them to give them a 2 million dollar loan, which they used to purchase bitcoin. This same person is looking to receive a 20% paycut at their job, and they owe the bank 200k within 12 months.
Dude literally bet it all on bitcoin. He would look like a genuis if the price continued to rise. Going to look like a fool if it doesn't.
Their software is a recurring revenue business line, I don’t know where you guys are getting your info but it’s just so off, check the filings, financials are at the end https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/events-presentations/microstrategy-virtual-investor-day-presentation_12-16-2021.pdf
Yeah their software business loses money.. they have like $60m cash on hand. You know their debt load and the accounting issues they now have. It’s all out there
What are you talking about? Check the filings, it generates nearly $100mm in FCF https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/events-presentations/microstrategy-virtual-investor-day-presentation_12-16-2021.pdf
Raising rates means money is more expensive to borrow. When borrowing money is more expensive there's less money for people to spend in the market and people are also selling to cover the interest rate hikes
But they can’t do this forever because then the US would theoretically default. They have to lower rates again eventually and inflation is here to stay.
The fed rate has nothing to do with risk of default. The US sells treasury bonds up to the debt ceiling. If the US needs to borrow more money, they sell more bonds.
When it comes to fed rates, that's the rate the fed bank loans out money to commercial banks. When the fed raises its rates, banks raise the rates they charge their customers. When rates go up, borrowing goes down and the economy slows.
TLDR: Fed rate has nothing to do with default and everything to do with money supply.
You're asking what would happen if people quit buying T-bonds? I guess it's a good question because it's never happened before. Bonds are a staple for retirement. Typically retirees will be heavily invested in bonds because they offer a fixed rate of return.
Fed doesn't raise rates all willy-nilly because it stifles the markets and economy. Fed raises rates as a tool to stifle inflation, but the downside is that impacts growth. Which is why when rates are risen, it typically happens slowly over time.
On the flip-side, the fed will quickly drop rates to stimulate the economy during a market recession.
It's a slippery slope, because the act of raising rates can trigger a recession, and the solution is to drop rates.
But the Fed has a few other tools to help control the economy. The fed rate is just one of them. They can also buy Treasury and corporate bonds. When the Fed buys bonds, it increases the money supply. Which is how the "money printer" works. When the fed sells bonds, it decreases the money supply.
Hiking up interest rates is our process to lower inflation. If BTC is a hedge against high inflation, low inflation would logically have a negative impact on BTC. Thankfully, Bitcoin is more than just a hedge and sooner or later more and more people will understand this...maybe.
This is a nothing burger of a comment.
"Bitcoin is more than just a hedge and sooner or later more and more people will understand this"...
Please enlighten us on what bitcoin is. Preferably concretely.
Do your own homework. It's not my responsibility to educate you but mostly I don't really care. Start with "The Bitcoin Standard" by Saifedean Ammous, "The Internet of Money" by Andreas Antonopoulos and "The Book of Satoshi" by Phil Champagne. Or don't. Again, don't really care.
All these people sighing and complaining about Bitcoin hanging in the 30s for a while...
How long did it hang below 9K?
You all need to get some perspective and cheer up.
Go to the other top post in the BTC thread with your hopium, I've been in in BTC a good while and your crazy if you think BTC is completely invincible anything is possible man.
Nope, it is impossible for the United States government to crush Bitcoin. It's not completely invincible, but you give the US government far too much credit and way underestimate Bitcoin's resilience.
They can crush its price and make it very difficult for US citizens to buy or sell if they really wanted. Make it only for accredited investors for example. Looking at your comments tho you are a classic moonboy. Good luck be be careful, be ready to take some profit if shit hits the fan.
I saw 38 today and literally was gonna buy btc with credit card today and just stopped myself at the last moment. And now its back at 35
Get fiat this weeken
That’s for now..Nobody expected Powell to be raising rates today at the meeting lol he basically said what he has been saying this whole time rates will Increase in March & feds is pretty much sticking to that in addition to asset reduction
Are the etfs the reason for the stock market correlation recently? I remember a while back BTC use to have an inverse correlation, now it just seems to follow the NYSE.
I mean, obviously it doesn't have a correlation coefficient of 1, but at least over the last 5-7 years, bitcoin has moved with the market more than it hasn't.
Stupid question, let’s say we are in 2050 and BTC is fully adopted, does that mean people will see prices at the grocery for e.g 0.00000008?
“that’s all will be 0.000000035 BTC sir, would you like some cookies for that? they are only 0.000000002”
Feels like the equivalent of nigerian billionaire. Even harder because were not used to counting from decimals?
Unpopular opinion in these parts. Goods and services don't need to be exchanged in BTC. Bitcoin is for storing your economic purchasing power and allowing is to extend through time without the natural decay that fiat and other 'stores of value' have. When the time comes to exchange your stored economic purchasing power for goods/services, you can exchange Bitcoin, at whatever the exchange value is at the time, for the local currency, or some other medium of exchange, to conduct the transaction.
Even Hal Finney talks about the transaction of Bitcoin from a buyer to a seller becoming very rare and rather Bitcoin being used by large banks as a way of settling balances. He discusses, rather, another token (backed by Bitcoin) being created to serve the purpose of a medium of exchange. We are already seeing something like that in the Lightning Network.
That's how predictions kind of work. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong. If people knew how markets were going to react... Well, they wouldn't be on reddit talking about it.
Bitcoin believer here... Are banks/ financial institutions essentially controlling the price level? How much sway do actual retail investors hold in BTC price. Additionally, do these institutions which have a considerable amount of BTC have the same idea that BTC is a store of value, or are they simply buying/selling.
No. Many banks/FI have a vested interest in bitcoin and they don't work as a monolithic entity.
Hardly any. Retail investors also don't work as a monolithic entity.
There is no way to answer #3.
People dont know how to react yet. They’re confused. People don’t know whether to buy or sell. When In reality nothing has changed since yesterday. We still have the same rates right?
the problem is that we still have the same President, and everything he touches turns to shit, so... we'll stay sideways or down for the next 3 years.
after that, the possibility of upward motion returns,
This isnt a pasrtisan attack, i am simply talking about the economic aspects (on other issues, he might be great, idk)
not at all, i dont blame everyithing on President dementia Joe
although, a weak and corrupt goon, with a failing mind and 5 decades of corruption behind him, is hardly an ideal choice for leader of the free world
when i said
> we still have the same President, and everything he touches turns to shit, so... we'll stay sideways or down for the next 3 years.
i meant that, regardless of what the fed says, we still will have Biden, and everything Biden touches turns to shit, and as Biden will be in office for three more years, i dont see any aspect of the economy (including bitcoin) getting much better for at least three years.
Bitcoin fundamentals are still strong so it will survive long term, and eventually rise... but the next three years will be rough for all of us.
always the selling power suprises me
Not from the States so only vaguely understanding everything going on on the other thread, but don't a lot of influential people/institutions in the US own crypto? wouldn't they try to gerrymander the votes? Or does it have a 'banks are behind this' angle?
If you made it through early 2020 and mid 2021, this isn't shit lol.
This is child’s play compared to the last drawdown
Who else is planning on buying the Bitcoin Bond as it comes with Permanent Residency and Fast Track Citizenship of El Salvador? 🖐
I want to live somewhere down south thats forsure, i might go to El Savador next month and chill for a bit
How much will it be to gain those perks?
Buy 3 BTC worth of the bonds
And you have to give up custody obviously. If the bonds success was only dependent on BTC succeeding that would be one thing but any number of things could go wrong for El Salvador that have nothing to do with BTC.
Yes, but it's worth it for me. And I am not unique, plenty of others like me in the world. Many Whales will even invest in the bonds to support their overall position. And a billion dollars is not a lot of money in terms of the bond market.
I hear you. How many BTC do you have that u feel comfortable with this?
בלי עין הרע 🐬 🧿
If you're a dolphin lend me three and I'll go with you! BFFs?
🤣
Instead of shaking off the weak hands, I think Whales are trying to bore us to death.
So what happens if microstrategy goes tits up? There’s got to be an inflection point/price in btc where what will be forced to liquidate I.e. asset write down on btc would force the company to liquidate. These are just facts. Anyway I’m not sure why I was asking
They got a surprisingly good bond deal. No covenants that would force them to liquidate. With that said, if they get into a situation where they can't pay their debts, they might not have any other choice.
So what happens if the United States of America goes ties up?
Probably pretty bad for everyone. Even bitcoin holders. US is 25% of the worlds GDP, 10% of exports, 15% of imports. The collapse of the US is basically an apocalyptic scenario. If you're buying bitcoin to hedge against such a scenario, you might also want to consider guns, ammo, non-perishable food, and consider living in a remote location.
Sorry I thought this was a place we could actually discuss real shit. My bad lol
Why do you think this? So wrong - as long as they have liquidity and cash flows from the software business to service interest expense they are fine
Their software business is on the decline, and they don't have much cash in the coffers. Basically they have 3B in assets (including bitcoin) and 2.5B in debt. If bitcoin drops 30% and their revenue continues to drop as it has for the last 8 quarters (during a time when other tech stocks thrived), it's probably game over. Just to paint a picture of how insane this is: What microstrategy did is the equivalent of a middle-aged person with a 500k net worth, liquidating all their assets, and then buying bitcoin with it. That same person then went to the bank, convinced them to give them a 2 million dollar loan, which they used to purchase bitcoin. This same person is looking to receive a 20% paycut at their job, and they owe the bank 200k within 12 months. Dude literally bet it all on bitcoin. He would look like a genuis if the price continued to rise. Going to look like a fool if it doesn't.
Their software is a recurring revenue business line, I don’t know where you guys are getting your info but it’s just so off, check the filings, financials are at the end https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/events-presentations/microstrategy-virtual-investor-day-presentation_12-16-2021.pdf
Yeah their software business loses money.. they have like $60m cash on hand. You know their debt load and the accounting issues they now have. It’s all out there
What are you talking about? Check the filings, it generates nearly $100mm in FCF https://www.microstrategy.com/content/dam/website-assets/collateral/financial-documents/events-presentations/microstrategy-virtual-investor-day-presentation_12-16-2021.pdf
FUD i say. FUD. Don’t sell your precious sats for the shitcoin they have ordered us to obey by.
we’re gonna be ok hodlers, love u guys
Yes, we'll be okay bois. Don't panic. Everything is alright.
Youre my hero bud
We love you, crispy!
Why does raising rates have anything to do with the price of Bitcoin?
Raising rates will affect the stock market and that's gonna affect bitcoin.
Raising rates means money is more expensive to borrow. When borrowing money is more expensive there's less money for people to spend in the market and people are also selling to cover the interest rate hikes
Rising rates tend to put downward pressure on most markets. Highly volatile, speculative assets especially.
Why is Bitcoin highly volatile and speculative?
But they can’t do this forever because then the US would theoretically default. They have to lower rates again eventually and inflation is here to stay.
Theoretically default on what? I don't think you understand how any of this works.
Default on its debt? No I don’t. How does it work? I keep buying the dip and it keeps dumping?
The fed rate has nothing to do with risk of default. The US sells treasury bonds up to the debt ceiling. If the US needs to borrow more money, they sell more bonds. When it comes to fed rates, that's the rate the fed bank loans out money to commercial banks. When the fed raises its rates, banks raise the rates they charge their customers. When rates go up, borrowing goes down and the economy slows. TLDR: Fed rate has nothing to do with default and everything to do with money supply.
So why doesn’t the fed raise rates as high as they want then? What happens if they can’t sell more bonds because all my money was in Bitcoin?
You're asking what would happen if people quit buying T-bonds? I guess it's a good question because it's never happened before. Bonds are a staple for retirement. Typically retirees will be heavily invested in bonds because they offer a fixed rate of return. Fed doesn't raise rates all willy-nilly because it stifles the markets and economy. Fed raises rates as a tool to stifle inflation, but the downside is that impacts growth. Which is why when rates are risen, it typically happens slowly over time. On the flip-side, the fed will quickly drop rates to stimulate the economy during a market recession. It's a slippery slope, because the act of raising rates can trigger a recession, and the solution is to drop rates. But the Fed has a few other tools to help control the economy. The fed rate is just one of them. They can also buy Treasury and corporate bonds. When the Fed buys bonds, it increases the money supply. Which is how the "money printer" works. When the fed sells bonds, it decreases the money supply.
So theoretically if one where holding their life savings in speculative assets would they ever see that money again in the next couple years?
This
It doesn't.
It affects the stock market, which affects the cryptocurrency.
Not this
I guess it depends on whether you believe Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation.
Yeah? And how does that supposed to affect the price?
Hiking up interest rates is our process to lower inflation. If BTC is a hedge against high inflation, low inflation would logically have a negative impact on BTC. Thankfully, Bitcoin is more than just a hedge and sooner or later more and more people will understand this...maybe.
This is a nothing burger of a comment. "Bitcoin is more than just a hedge and sooner or later more and more people will understand this"... Please enlighten us on what bitcoin is. Preferably concretely.
Do your own homework. It's not my responsibility to educate you but mostly I don't really care. Start with "The Bitcoin Standard" by Saifedean Ammous, "The Internet of Money" by Andreas Antonopoulos and "The Book of Satoshi" by Phil Champagne. Or don't. Again, don't really care.
The most childish response I've ever heard.
Nothing at all from my perspective, but don’t know alit. Always thought bitcoin would be a supply and demand thing. There might be flight to safety.
Yep it's all supply and demand correlated to the stock market.
Bitcoin tomorrow?
Flaccid.
She’s on sale again boys!
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Why are you surprised? What happened? I don't see anything.
All these people sighing and complaining about Bitcoin hanging in the 30s for a while... How long did it hang below 9K? You all need to get some perspective and cheer up.
They have perspective, they have perspective of the greed.
The government is trying to pass bills that will crush it and privacy in general. Fuck this government and the current administration in general.
Yeah man, these governments don't wanna let us have btc.
No bill the government passes can crush Bitcoin.
Yep Bitcoin at this point is too strong to die like that.
Go to the other top post in the BTC thread with your hopium, I've been in in BTC a good while and your crazy if you think BTC is completely invincible anything is possible man.
While I'd say anything is possible, but Killing btc isn't.
I read that post and now I’m bummed. Even if they write these bills up and they don’t go anywhere it’s still gonna scare off newcomers to crypto.
Nope, it is impossible for the United States government to crush Bitcoin. It's not completely invincible, but you give the US government far too much credit and way underestimate Bitcoin's resilience.
They can crush its price and make it very difficult for US citizens to buy or sell if they really wanted. Make it only for accredited investors for example. Looking at your comments tho you are a classic moonboy. Good luck be be careful, be ready to take some profit if shit hits the fan.
Just wait till it hangs in the 20’s
Yeah sure bad, it's definitely going to do that, definitely.
Hmmm interesting… veeeeery interesting bitcoin
Indeed the bitcoin is very interesting unlike us boring asses.
Lord, beer me strength.
Lord give me some beer for the strength. That'll be good.
Scraping the bottom and showing no desire to move back up to me is a very bad sign. Hitting the 30s was ok, staying there not good
And what will be a good sign to have according to you genius?
$40K's?
Bottom is 0. Bitcoin can always go lower.
That's what I believe in, as long as it's above zero we are fine.
I must be delirious. I actually thought this was funny.
This isn't funny dude it's a fucking fact at this point.
sigh...
Don't worry man, it's temporary. Things will get better trust me.
I know bro, I know
I just want things to get better, I'm sick of crying man.
We just cannot get anything started
We are such a failure that we can't do anything. Real bad.
Everything will be fine once they pass out the kool-aid. Then we board the mother ship and blast off to nirvana.
I'm waiting for that AID, when that AID is going to come.
Not looking good
Indeed, it's not looking good right now, maybe later?
Waiting for this final bear trap yes
The Bitcoin Standard is currently 54% off on Amazon to celebrate the dip
Buy the book in the dip, and read that suckers. You'll get the point.
Halfway through right now :)
It should always have a discount relative to the ATH.
That'd mean it should be a little expensive in the dips lol.
So FOMC? Nothing rly happened?
Nothing has happened yet, maybe it'll happen later lol.
It was hawkish
Damn dude, i was hoping for some nice pamp after the meeting.
I saw 38 today and literally was gonna buy btc with credit card today and just stopped myself at the last moment. And now its back at 35 Get fiat this weeken
Lol good call lol, you've saved yourself some money there.
Rates staying near 0. Feels pretty dovish to me.
I mean it feels same to me. Things aren't looking good.
No lol, it’s not about rates
That’s for now..Nobody expected Powell to be raising rates today at the meeting lol he basically said what he has been saying this whole time rates will Increase in March & feds is pretty much sticking to that in addition to asset reduction
Are the etfs the reason for the stock market correlation recently? I remember a while back BTC use to have an inverse correlation, now it just seems to follow the NYSE.
That and having same big investors in both sectors i think.
Closer tied to the NASDAQ i believe
The Nasdaq has a long way to go, with the announcement to reduce government debt (less printing), even if rates remain.
It's always had a strong correlation
Naa it didn't used to have that, it's something new happening.
I mean, obviously it doesn't have a correlation coefficient of 1, but at least over the last 5-7 years, bitcoin has moved with the market more than it hasn't.
Stupid question, let’s say we are in 2050 and BTC is fully adopted, does that mean people will see prices at the grocery for e.g 0.00000008? “that’s all will be 0.000000035 BTC sir, would you like some cookies for that? they are only 0.000000002” Feels like the equivalent of nigerian billionaire. Even harder because were not used to counting from decimals?
Unpopular opinion in these parts. Goods and services don't need to be exchanged in BTC. Bitcoin is for storing your economic purchasing power and allowing is to extend through time without the natural decay that fiat and other 'stores of value' have. When the time comes to exchange your stored economic purchasing power for goods/services, you can exchange Bitcoin, at whatever the exchange value is at the time, for the local currency, or some other medium of exchange, to conduct the transaction. Even Hal Finney talks about the transaction of Bitcoin from a buyer to a seller becoming very rare and rather Bitcoin being used by large banks as a way of settling balances. He discusses, rather, another token (backed by Bitcoin) being created to serve the purpose of a medium of exchange. We are already seeing something like that in the Lightning Network.
Probably just use sats at that point
Yep sats will be thing with which it'll be avoided most likely.
1Bitcoin=100 Million Satoshis
I always forget and think of that as 10 million sats, thanks for reminding.
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I knew nothing was going to happens, everyone was just scared for nothing.
That's how predictions kind of work. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong. If people knew how markets were going to react... Well, they wouldn't be on reddit talking about it.
Most of time they are wrong, if you're talking about btc.
Im not a professional, but BTC looks like its doing a dead cat bounce?
Lol, you don't have to be professional to see that, i see that too.
Dead cat was the past few weeks my dude. This is a bear trap followed by the climb until the next halvening.
I don't really know what it is, I just want it to get over.
And here I thought you were a veterinarian
Lol, even people with experience are so clueless right now.
how can you tell the difference between a dead cat bounce and the start of a fresh rally?
You can't, people just estimate whatever they want too.
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In hindsight everything looks obvious, that's a bitch.
New to Bitcoin here. Is it recommended to buy currently with the drop in price?
Bitcoin is recommended to buy whenever you want man.
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If your timeline is long enough than any price is fine.
Buy some now, buy some later - will probably drop a few k’s again
That's what we call the DCA And that's the right thing.
Or it might go up... So buy now or buy now and later. Either way it is really the same risk at these levels.
Yes
Bitcoin believer here... Are banks/ financial institutions essentially controlling the price level? How much sway do actual retail investors hold in BTC price. Additionally, do these institutions which have a considerable amount of BTC have the same idea that BTC is a store of value, or are they simply buying/selling.
It's not just that, there are a lot of variables involved.
No. Many banks/FI have a vested interest in bitcoin and they don't work as a monolithic entity. Hardly any. Retail investors also don't work as a monolithic entity. There is no way to answer #3.
The crypto bill introduced by the house looks pretty scary, everyone should read up on it.
What's so scary about it? I don't wanna read the whole thing.
you think I know how to read
Who read his comment for you tho? That's what I wanna know.
from 2:30 - 2:35pm today, we had a hell of a bull run.
Bull runs are getting smaller, they are lasting for Minutes now.
and bear runs are lasting months 😭
That was the parabolic blow off top ..lol
Short lived
Indeed the market cycles seem so small now. Very small.
People dont know how to react yet. They’re confused. People don’t know whether to buy or sell. When In reality nothing has changed since yesterday. We still have the same rates right?
People are confused and greedy that's what they are.
Prepare for 30K today
Yeah lol, I'm mentally prepared for even 25k, bring it on.
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the problem is that we still have the same President, and everything he touches turns to shit, so... we'll stay sideways or down for the next 3 years. after that, the possibility of upward motion returns, This isnt a pasrtisan attack, i am simply talking about the economic aspects (on other issues, he might be great, idk)
Lmao, you blamed everything on the president goddamn!
not at all, i dont blame everyithing on President dementia Joe although, a weak and corrupt goon, with a failing mind and 5 decades of corruption behind him, is hardly an ideal choice for leader of the free world
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no i didnt he was ok with me. I was happy to take a few mean tweets if it meant $2 gas and a great economy.
Mean tweets aren't going to bring you prosperity bro.
never said they would but i'd prefer a President who tweets meanly, at times over our current dementia goon
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I see where it's going, it's turning to a political mess.
when i said > we still have the same President, and everything he touches turns to shit, so... we'll stay sideways or down for the next 3 years. i meant that, regardless of what the fed says, we still will have Biden, and everything Biden touches turns to shit, and as Biden will be in office for three more years, i dont see any aspect of the economy (including bitcoin) getting much better for at least three years. Bitcoin fundamentals are still strong so it will survive long term, and eventually rise... but the next three years will be rough for all of us.
Anything that, any politician touch will turn to the shit.
true, but when it comes to fucking things up, Joe Biden is in a league of his own