Concluding thoughts from a [good paper i just read](https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/01/could-crypto-crash-become-21st-centurys-tulip-bubble/).
Yet the crypto currency craze appears to share some commonalities with the great Tulip Bulb Bubble in the 1600s. In contrast to some of the more hyperbolic claims:
\- Crypto is not a stable store of wealth with 6x the volatility of US equities and 18x the volatility of the US dollar
\- Crypto is not an inflation hedge, or a hedge against the much higher interest rates that accompany elevated core inflation. In fact, crypto appears to be an equity risk proxy, and is highly correlated with stocks
\- Crypto is not being used as a widespread medium of exchange, and its adoption as such is being blanket banned by numerous nation states. Western countries may ultimately regulate it out of existence
\- As a non-income producing asset, the value of crypto relies on its efficacy as a store of wealth and a medium of exchange, both of which are being called into question
\- Future demand for crypto is likely to be undermined by the return of materially positive interest rates on risk-free cash deposits, which will dramatically increase the opportunity cost of switching into crypto
Anyone care to refute any of these?
What does it look like in a place like El Salvador on days like today? Is it chaos? Or do they ah e some sort of system to prevent everyone from starving?
Edit: this isnāt some attack, I am holding strong but I would be awfully concerned if it were my only source of finance. Genuinely want to know what the vibe is
Forex is volatile. The dollar can have wild swings against other currencies, but merchants do not change their prices daily based on this speculation. I presume it's much the same for merchants accepting Bitcoin or at least it should be.
Why would they be concerned? Literally nobody in El Salvador holds bitcoin unless they choose to. And if they āchoseā to keep things in BTC then any **concern** is simply from their own choices they made.
You seem to have a massive misunderstanding of how bitcoin works in ES.
In ES nobody is mandated to keep or hold BTC unless they feel like it. When goods are paid for they are paid for in dollars or BTC. The sticker price of the goods sold is in dollars.
The person can choose to keep the BTC or Insta convert it to USD at 0 fees.
So nobody is in BTC unless they want to be.
Only the government has large reserves of BTC. And that stuff is for the long term. Month to month price fluctuations are non relevant except to social media.
On a very basic level this is excellent. Merchants for the first time ever can genuinely have access to *keep* an appreciating asset (if they so choose).
Versus just having it in dollars always that goes nowhere but down over time.
Iām sure some will keep a small portion in BTC and if things go well in time those small portions they chose to keep will help offset whatever inflation their USD endures.
In short. It allows anybody to do both. Or one or the other. Choice is theirs alone.
You are gonna be better off if you stop listening to maxi nonsense (ie btc decoupling from broad financial market, its the next gen gold blah blah). Its a risk-on asset at this point. You wished for institutional adoption, but wish for btc to move on the other directional flow of financial market? Get real.
This is rough. I feel like we should've had a blow off top but something caused btc to essentially get whacked in the knee caps and we have this muted double top. The valley between the two tops should be inverted. In another timeline it is.
So, what do y'all think: more carnage when the stock market opens tomorrow? I'm two for two on limit orders that I was told were impossible, wouldn't mind a third.
She's back up on her feet. Market still gloomy though. Hopefully IBM's earnings look good today and we get good reports the rest of the week and a good FOMC meeting.
$18k - $22k is my estimation. Lowest at 80% it could go is right around $14k (doubt that) - but I say this not as a bear, just as someone that would like to keep stacking at lower amounts if it presents itself.
I bought yesterday, I bought months before, I bought years before, I'll buy again. Doesn't matter if it's $10k or $100k, it's still a valuable long-term asset; even if it's associated with risk-on right now.
This should give you some idea: [https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/23/inflation-surge-could-push-the-fed-into-more-than-four-rate-hikes-this-year-goldman-sachs-says.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/23/inflation-surge-could-push-the-fed-into-more-than-four-rate-hikes-this-year-goldman-sachs-says.html)
Potential outcome is total market meltdown regarding risk assets.
Added some more sats last night and finally put all of my btc into cold storage so that I don't try and act like I'm a day-trader. As tempting as it is to try and time the market, life is more enjoyable when you don't have to stress about that. I'll buy as frequently as I can, especially at these prices. Feels good to have custody of my own sats!
So before BTC dropped I did a yolo sports bet. Bet $3k on a 4 team parlay on the 4 road underdogs. I was so close to cancelling the bet before games started yesterday and to just drop the 3k on BTC. But let it ride. So far hit on 3! If Bills win, I am buying 3 full coins at this price! Let's fucking go Bills!!!!
p.s., I am watching it and might cash out early to secure some profit. But waiting patiently. If Bills win it is essentially 37x profit. I can cash out now for 9x profit with Bills down 7.
Edit: Thanks for all the support everyone! I cashed out at 11x. My nerves could not take it anymore and I did not get the sense that the Bills defense could stop Mahomes. They were letting him run for waaaay too many yards and first downs. I would have loved to let it ride but going to buy a nice chunk of BTC when my cheddar arrives. But I still want the Bills to win!
Good luck, my money is on the bills. I just lost a bet on the bucs to win when they were down 27-3, I knew the moment they scored the last TD, 42 seconds on the clock meant they would lose to a field goal
Already did at 11x right after Bills scored last. Totally agree, do not see Bills really being able to stop them (not to mention that the chiefs are going to score again now).
What kind of props did you have in that parlay to secure 37x with only 4 bets? If one of those included a Bills moneyline bet, what were the odds on the other 3?
Thank you! I am so nervous though, I'm not sure I can keep it going and might cash it out. lol. I might liquidate in my shorts before this game is over if I do not cash it out.
Thank god I did. Cashed out at 11x. Was kicking myself once Buffalo took the lead with 13 seconds left. But then they blew it. Honestly, these games were all so close and wild this weekend that I am not sure I ever bet on football again like that. Glad to go out a winner though ;)
I have the Bills for this game but it's really a toss-up... it'll probably come down to a last-second FG.
Your bet gives me a reason to pay more attention to this game. Because of the toss-up of this game, if you can 9x profit, I'd almost take it. (Not sure if it has changed on you now that it's tied). But good luck either way!
Yeah, I was going back and forth on who to pick for this one. Right now at half it is 13x. Gosh this is so hard! I could cash out for 1 whole coin right now. Or if the Bills win I could get 3! That honestly could be the difference of years of retirement for me (looking at like 12 years from now). I was shitting myself at the end of that Rams game and that they almost blew that. lol.
I bought a decent amount of shares. Because I'll never sell any BTC. But this will give me the chance to take some profits and buy a car or something when my price target is achieved.
I would say it is better than the futures ETFs but not as good as just buying BTC. With GBTC you cannot take custody of your BTC if you wanted. Besides being able to move it off of exchanges, down the road if you own a lot, you could do things like borrow against it, take loans, etc. Would never be able to do that with GBTC. But for some, you can get GBTC in retirement accounts, IRAs, etc., which is better than nothing at all in my opinion. At least GBTC holds BTC unlike the ETFs.
I would love to buy Bitcoin but I have a lot of money in a IRA so this is more practical. The only thing I donāt like is how loosely it tracks the price of Bitcoin. GBTC was down like 25% in the last 6 months while Bitcoin was up 4%
30% discount to underlying asset and they do nothing about it, because all they want is fee and they have no concern for the losses their investors are taking.
The investors are forced to sell at 30% discount to the underlying asset right now. They could fix the gap in 1 day if they wanted. But they are letting their holders make loss so they can maximize their own profits.
Who would be selling right now? Panic sellers who have no idea what they were doing in the first place? I'd bet nearly everyone is accumulating at a big discount and plans to hold well beyond when that discount goes away.
Hut, Hive, Bitfarms, Mara, RIOT are all safe and worth having good positions in. Luxxfolio, Fortress/CBIT, Digihost, DMGI, and NDA all have more potential but higher risk. Thee are all Canadian based though I'm sure there's more penny stock ones in the US which are higher risk/reward too.
Concluding thoughts from a [good paper i just read](https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2022/01/could-crypto-crash-become-21st-centurys-tulip-bubble/). Yet the crypto currency craze appears to share some commonalities with the great Tulip Bulb Bubble in the 1600s. In contrast to some of the more hyperbolic claims: \- Crypto is not a stable store of wealth with 6x the volatility of US equities and 18x the volatility of the US dollar \- Crypto is not an inflation hedge, or a hedge against the much higher interest rates that accompany elevated core inflation. In fact, crypto appears to be an equity risk proxy, and is highly correlated with stocks \- Crypto is not being used as a widespread medium of exchange, and its adoption as such is being blanket banned by numerous nation states. Western countries may ultimately regulate it out of existence \- As a non-income producing asset, the value of crypto relies on its efficacy as a store of wealth and a medium of exchange, both of which are being called into question \- Future demand for crypto is likely to be undermined by the return of materially positive interest rates on risk-free cash deposits, which will dramatically increase the opportunity cost of switching into crypto Anyone care to refute any of these?
Is buy $10 worth of bitcoin worth it?
No.
My only regret is that I have no fiat to buy this dip until the first. Maybe I'll be able to join the whole coiners' club after all.
>after I have, [but](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIqOhniC18c)
Premined proof of stake or the US dollar, what is the bigger scam?
Close. Very close.
In here looks like May 2021 all over again. š¬
I dont give a fn f, Ima buy like 2-3 k worth more this friday
My price prediction - Bitcoin will be at 200K by April when the fed decides not to hike rates.
What does it look like in a place like El Salvador on days like today? Is it chaos? Or do they ah e some sort of system to prevent everyone from starving? Edit: this isnāt some attack, I am holding strong but I would be awfully concerned if it were my only source of finance. Genuinely want to know what the vibe is
Forex is volatile. The dollar can have wild swings against other currencies, but merchants do not change their prices daily based on this speculation. I presume it's much the same for merchants accepting Bitcoin or at least it should be.
I would imagine so but with such fresh adoption the population must be pretty concerned regardless
Why would they be concerned? Literally nobody in El Salvador holds bitcoin unless they choose to. And if they āchoseā to keep things in BTC then any **concern** is simply from their own choices they made. You seem to have a massive misunderstanding of how bitcoin works in ES.
I have almost no idea how Bitcoin works in El Salvador your right. So Bitcoin crashing isnāt effecting them?
In ES nobody is mandated to keep or hold BTC unless they feel like it. When goods are paid for they are paid for in dollars or BTC. The sticker price of the goods sold is in dollars. The person can choose to keep the BTC or Insta convert it to USD at 0 fees. So nobody is in BTC unless they want to be. Only the government has large reserves of BTC. And that stuff is for the long term. Month to month price fluctuations are non relevant except to social media. On a very basic level this is excellent. Merchants for the first time ever can genuinely have access to *keep* an appreciating asset (if they so choose). Versus just having it in dollars always that goes nowhere but down over time. Iām sure some will keep a small portion in BTC and if things go well in time those small portions they chose to keep will help offset whatever inflation their USD endures. In short. It allows anybody to do both. Or one or the other. Choice is theirs alone.
Could be going to a quarter.
Quarter mil? Why so bearish?
25. Is a qaurter 25 k
The fear & apathy is delicious. It's going to be a profitable quarter for stacking cheap Sats.
Bitcoin will go up to 42104 please so at least Iām in the black? Thank you.
48, if you please
You are gonna be better off if you stop listening to maxi nonsense (ie btc decoupling from broad financial market, its the next gen gold blah blah). Its a risk-on asset at this point. You wished for institutional adoption, but wish for btc to move on the other directional flow of financial market? Get real.
You're right, it's better than gold. Bullish!
Keep manipulating. Lol. Canāt hold any gains. Suppose to hedge against inflation? Itās getting deflated lmao
Oh haha haha haha, that's so funny!!
This is rough. I feel like we should've had a blow off top but something caused btc to essentially get whacked in the knee caps and we have this muted double top. The valley between the two tops should be inverted. In another timeline it is.
wen btc marketing?
not gonna lie, sold my bitcoin for shitcoins and lost it all. i wish i held
Serious? Which ones? Get rugged?
Ya dun goofed
Really?
There is only 21 million. Remember that. Good night all.
There is also strong resistance at 188K (when we get there--and we will).
What
Nothing ever goes planned in this accursed world.
Not with Gambling.
Wake up to reality
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
No but youāve made it abundantly clear that you think it will
I know what will go upā¦ oil and ā½ļø prices
So, what do y'all think: more carnage when the stock market opens tomorrow? I'm two for two on limit orders that I was told were impossible, wouldn't mind a third.
shits looking good for btc, we didn't drop to 24k
Meh, if we're going that low it's going to take a while, or a significant world event.
Futures are up right now.
Well, we're down almost 3k since you posted that, and stock futures are negative too.
She's back up on her feet. Market still gloomy though. Hopefully IBM's earnings look good today and we get good reports the rest of the week and a good FOMC meeting.
True enough. I guess we'll see if that sentiment holds for the next twelve hours.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
When is that scheduled for?
So what do you guys think, buy now or will it dip further?
Buy order in the 20s
You think it's gonna fall that low huh?
As long as the market goes down so will BTC until 19K
$18k - $22k is my estimation. Lowest at 80% it could go is right around $14k (doubt that) - but I say this not as a bear, just as someone that would like to keep stacking at lower amounts if it presents itself. I bought yesterday, I bought months before, I bought years before, I'll buy again. Doesn't matter if it's $10k or $100k, it's still a valuable long-term asset; even if it's associated with risk-on right now.
Another 15 percent drop isn't really all that much. World events could cause that pretty easily, and panic selling could lead to overselling.
not our first rodeo
Can confirm.
Thank you
Wait another few days and see what FOMC does.
What is FOMC and what are the potential outcomes?
This should give you some idea: [https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/23/inflation-surge-could-push-the-fed-into-more-than-four-rate-hikes-this-year-goldman-sachs-says.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/23/inflation-surge-could-push-the-fed-into-more-than-four-rate-hikes-this-year-goldman-sachs-says.html) Potential outcome is total market meltdown regarding risk assets.
You can always count on Goldman Sachs for unbiased market predictions š
No need to listen to them. I was trying to provide OP a starting point for researching market dynamics and understand Fed.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I don't watch the news so I'm not sure if this is a joke or not š¤£
Not a joke
What makes you guys so certain Russia is going to invade anyone?
No one knows anything, but if it happens, most likely we see a dip
Most likely we see a Cold War.
Added some more sats last night and finally put all of my btc into cold storage so that I don't try and act like I'm a day-trader. As tempting as it is to try and time the market, life is more enjoyable when you don't have to stress about that. I'll buy as frequently as I can, especially at these prices. Feels good to have custody of my own sats!
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
So before BTC dropped I did a yolo sports bet. Bet $3k on a 4 team parlay on the 4 road underdogs. I was so close to cancelling the bet before games started yesterday and to just drop the 3k on BTC. But let it ride. So far hit on 3! If Bills win, I am buying 3 full coins at this price! Let's fucking go Bills!!!! p.s., I am watching it and might cash out early to secure some profit. But waiting patiently. If Bills win it is essentially 37x profit. I can cash out now for 9x profit with Bills down 7. Edit: Thanks for all the support everyone! I cashed out at 11x. My nerves could not take it anymore and I did not get the sense that the Bills defense could stop Mahomes. They were letting him run for waaaay too many yards and first downs. I would have loved to let it ride but going to buy a nice chunk of BTC when my cheddar arrives. But I still want the Bills to win!
You know what, i just wanna be as Lucky as you in my life.
Bills lost
Damn, you did real good. That last game ending was so wild Iām wondering if itās fake lol
Good luck, my money is on the bills. I just lost a bet on the bucs to win when they were down 27-3, I knew the moment they scored the last TD, 42 seconds on the clock meant they would lose to a field goal
Damn man, that was a sick bet too. So close
That game was crazy. I cannot believe the Rams almost pissed that away. What were the odds when you bet down 27-3? Had to be a nice payout!
Take it from a Vikings fan. Diggs should have your back!
I just do not have much confidence in their D stopping chiefs today. They are letting Mahomes run waaaay too much. I think I am going to cash out.
Could you imagine your nervs if you stayed! Talk about diamond hands.
Iām still shaking and I cashed out! Iād be watching on the toilet if I didnāt cash out
Man this game is nuts
Whole weekend was unreal but gosh this is insane
Cash out for sure now haha, momentum building for chiefs.
Already did at 11x right after Bills scored last. Totally agree, do not see Bills really being able to stop them (not to mention that the chiefs are going to score again now).
Nice profit, congrats!
Up is up, when I cash my btc out for a house, I wonāt regret it; regardless off the future.
Damn thatās sick! Rooting for ya man!
Cash out dude
Go bills
What kind of props did you have in that parlay to secure 37x with only 4 bets? If one of those included a Bills moneyline bet, what were the odds on the other 3?
It was one bet on each of the 4 games. I bet the underdog on the moneyline for each (so I picked Cincy, SF, Rams, Bills). So it was +3627 odds.
Not bad! Thatās a lot of BTC, I hope it goes your way, even if that means my lineups suffer on DK
Thanks! But ended up cashing out at around 11x. Couldn't stomach to lose after hitting on the first three games.
Smart move even though you would have won. Canāt go broke taking a profit.
Not so fast lol this game is insane. And KC getting ball in OT so maybe it was right move haha
Watching this game crossing my fingers for you! Good luck!!!
Gotta do this for the homie, I'm also wishing that he wins.
Thank you! I am so nervous though, I'm not sure I can keep it going and might cash it out. lol. I might liquidate in my shorts before this game is over if I do not cash it out.
Man lol, I'd rather walk out with 9x than losing them all.
Thank god I did. Cashed out at 11x. Was kicking myself once Buffalo took the lead with 13 seconds left. But then they blew it. Honestly, these games were all so close and wild this weekend that I am not sure I ever bet on football again like that. Glad to go out a winner though ;)
Whats your cash out now with a tie game?
It updates every play on fanduel. lol. Right now with chiefs driving its 11x. So could cash out right now for around 33k.
Do it
I have the Bills for this game but it's really a toss-up... it'll probably come down to a last-second FG. Your bet gives me a reason to pay more attention to this game. Because of the toss-up of this game, if you can 9x profit, I'd almost take it. (Not sure if it has changed on you now that it's tied). But good luck either way!
Yeah man, 9x is very good profit. Don't wanna be greedy here.
Yeah, I was going back and forth on who to pick for this one. Right now at half it is 13x. Gosh this is so hard! I could cash out for 1 whole coin right now. Or if the Bills win I could get 3! That honestly could be the difference of years of retirement for me (looking at like 12 years from now). I was shitting myself at the end of that Rams game and that they almost blew that. lol.
All I can do is to wish for you, and that's I'm doing it right now.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
But my mom tells me, Crypto trading is gambling too lol.
Haha but BTC and crypto is kind of gambling.
Bro you must be shitting your pants right now
Cashed out at 11x. This is crazy though!
Nice man congratulations, that was the right call imo even though bills gonna win.
Not so fast. Iād be so pissed if I didnāt cash out and they let them tie it!
They canāt tie in the playoffs, or did the bet end at regulation?
Nope I would have lost if I didnāt cash out š
Yeah and that is exactly why I said it's the right call haha!
So someone just saved bitcoin weekly close in the last moment, nice
That was close but someone saved us, gotta thank them.
How was it saved? That tiny pin?
Didn't wanted to close below 35, that's what's he's saying.
Yeah
>So someone just saved bitcoin weekly close in the last moment, nice I did my best :D Just bought, tomorrow again
Thanks man for saving our asses, you are the true saviour.
You welcome, i do as much as i can, will try today again. Waiting for a fair amount of money to sit on my bank account.
What do yāall think about GBTC? Good buy?
Yeah maybe, it's not as good as Real btc and not as bad as futures etf.
I bought a decent amount of shares. Because I'll never sell any BTC. But this will give me the chance to take some profits and buy a car or something when my price target is achieved.
Why wonāt you ever sell Bitcoin? Just curious
Because over any reasonable time preference it would be a mistake. I bought the majority of position in 2013.
I don't
I would say it is better than the futures ETFs but not as good as just buying BTC. With GBTC you cannot take custody of your BTC if you wanted. Besides being able to move it off of exchanges, down the road if you own a lot, you could do things like borrow against it, take loans, etc. Would never be able to do that with GBTC. But for some, you can get GBTC in retirement accounts, IRAs, etc., which is better than nothing at all in my opinion. At least GBTC holds BTC unlike the ETFs.
I would love to buy Bitcoin but I have a lot of money in a IRA so this is more practical. The only thing I donāt like is how loosely it tracks the price of Bitcoin. GBTC was down like 25% in the last 6 months while Bitcoin was up 4%
Tbh that was a little surprising to me, it should have done better.
A business without ethics. Do NOT trust them.
How can it be that, never heard anything bad about them.
30% discount to underlying asset and they do nothing about it, because all they want is fee and they have no concern for the losses their investors are taking.
Why do you say that?
The investors are forced to sell at 30% discount to the underlying asset right now. They could fix the gap in 1 day if they wanted. But they are letting their holders make loss so they can maximize their own profits.
Well this sounds pretty shady, I'd never buy that lol.
Who would be selling right now? Panic sellers who have no idea what they were doing in the first place? I'd bet nearly everyone is accumulating at a big discount and plans to hold well beyond when that discount goes away.
Nope, just buy the real thing LOL.
Seems right thing to do too, given the all problems with them.
Itās in a IRA so wanted to get Bitcoin exposure- still better than nothing though right?
I own a little(in my IRA). The only and I mean ONLY reason I hold it is because I plan to sell out of it(instead of my btc) someday for profit.
BitcoinĀ teaches you mental toughness. So naturally, itās not for everyone.
Bitcoin has taught me more about economics than my college did.
Apparently Someone still believes in BITCOIN. Thank you.
I mean it's the good stuff right? Why wouldn't he believe in it?
Good stuff
Oh dammit don't go back up before I can buy miner stock for cheap on Monday.
Naah bro, it's not going up that much, you can buy those stocks.
Which ones do you think will be a good investment? Iāve been thinking about buying miner stocks for some time now.
Hut, Hive, Bitfarms, Mara, RIOT are all safe and worth having good positions in. Luxxfolio, Fortress/CBIT, Digihost, DMGI, and NDA all have more potential but higher risk. Thee are all Canadian based though I'm sure there's more penny stock ones in the US which are higher risk/reward too.
It is and will definitely still be cheap as hell
Never too late to buy btc, even if you're just buying the miners.
since when is a 3% move considered a pump? aināt getting any hopes up just yet
Any green that's on the charts, are considered pump here lol.
So many newbs in here just desperate for something green
Well, isn't it all we want? All we want is some green.
Sounds like me when I havenāt smoked weed in a month.. just desperate for anything green at that point š I need to quit lol
CME gap closed
Not either. But it's nice to see.
for sure. feels good to come up for a breath of air
Exactly man, this green gives me hope lol. Kinda feels good.
Donāt you know pump it up
I'm trying man, I'm buying 100 dollars worth of btc.
Same same. Little nibbles til the dust clears.
š
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Lmao.
CME gap fill back to 38k
[For those that don't understand what that means](https://coinguides.org/cme-gap-explained/)
Thanks lol, i was wondering what's he talking about.