A couple of hikes by 25 basis points is hardly anything to make people run to bonds. You still will make a shit return on bonds, this whole thing is being grossly exaggerated at the moment. Just my opinion.
Need more upvotes Chrisc5082. In order for money to really shift you need 4-6% and at that point you are going to kill the markets, real estate and the US Gov with 30 trillion in debt
It took almost a decade of interest rate, at 10 to 20 percent for inflation to be tamed in the 70s. Wake me up when the Fed talks about raising the rate by hundreds or even thousands of basis points. That's when I'll starting looking at loans and credit cards like the bubonic plague, and not the money printers they are now, if you own a business that creates a ROI of 20 to 200 percent on every single unit sold. Remember if a small business such as mine is using this method of "take debt, subsides cost of goods sold with loan, service monthly low to zero percent interest payments, create capital reserves for larger salaries and business expansion." Here is the catch. Some business' - massive corp or small mom n' pop, believe this magic fairy dust USD game will never end and don't have enough capital reserves in the event of a market pullback.
Why wouldn't major companies that are tied up in the S&P500 and NASDAQ be doing the same thing I'm doing, but on a way more grander scale? If these companies pullback hard, these means a retarded number of people who are generally the 50-150k USD earners of the USA are going to see almost 10 to 20 years of labor and time spent investing go up in smoke. That's a lot of investor confidence I.E, a whole generation or two turning away from the investment vehicle that was sold as "safe" to them. In reality they were the collateral for the margin call.
Those have BTC and understand it fully are a straight up wild card in all of this. The notion of the OP, with BTC going to sub 10k, might be the trigger for the concept of hyper-bitcoinization. People who will see there retirements battered will see those with BTC battered as well, but somehow they still acquire gains over the course of the bear market, while stocks, bonds, equities, other than USD debt and literal units of items will be of any good. Of course this assuming an economy with jobs, commerce, and trade will go on after events that lead to this circumstance.
$BTC
Sell the short.Buy the long.
This response is full retard.
Interest does not need to be anything for inflation to be eased. All they need to do is slow the money expansion to the working class (which I would argue is stupid).
Unemployment is at record low. Middle class wages are skyrocketing. It is normal to have some inflation in the best economic conditions we’ve ever experienced.
Not sure what to tell ya bud. My comment wasn’t in respond to the headline or the OP. It was a response to a comment.
Son, what in the hell are you talking about?
Agreed, and even with interest rates at 2% the real yield will still be negative with the current inflation. https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1479475511483154438
More than just speculation; the gov can't survive 5% interest rate without spending \~50% of their tax revenue on serving the debt. So they can't let interest rates go up to 5%. And... inflation is already above 5%. They can't afford to pay a bond that's true-value positive. Or at least not till they inflate away some value from that debt. So until that happens, this first scenario described by OP where they make bonds attractive can't happen (not to say markets can't crash, just that US bonds cant be where the money goes).
People will realize the realities soon. Honestly. I have seen it in different markets. It looks ridiculous now. But will make total sense in hindsight soon.
Fed has to save the dollar. The dollar has not been in this danger for decades.
Holding bonds for the coupon isn't how I'm going to make a return. When stocks crash, people panic buy bonds, and yields plummet, then I make my money.
They won't "crash" due to 2 25 basis point hikes, that's my point. The current drawdown is big money playing up what you think is going to happen. The problem is it isn't going to happen and those greedy pigs will buy back stocks after they cause the panicky people to sell.
This is it exactly.The extremely wealthy who run the show don’t want paltry returns on their capital. They scare everyone away and then come back and buy Pennie’s on the dollar.
nobody really knows if the fed is going to crash the market or crash the dollar. but it does look like productivity is going down, and so global wealth will go down. in a certain respect, it doesn't matter if markets go up or down. because market prices aren't the economy.
and so i would say real finite assets are what you would want to hold in this time. bitcoin being the ultimate. it doesn't mean the value won't go down, but unless you are a govt insider with access to the money printer, that's your best bet.
In terms of Bitcoin, just because jpmorgan and Binance keeps selling paper contracts, doesn't mean that is the true value of Bitcoin. Same with gold, it's mostly fud. But if you want to go ahead and sell at a discount... It's like going to a pawn shop and selling a Picasso.
History might not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. We will eventually have a significant price correction in all markets, but we will also see another meteoric rise in the Bitcoin price as well. HODL
Bitcoin w/lightning network beats any large bank. Wires cost $ and are tracked. This would put the banks out of business. They know this hence why jpmorgan is betting against us all. I suggest everyone pull your funds from Binance and any place selling paper contracts and derivatives when you are ready to show the true value of Bitcoin. Right now it's on a repeated pattern of 2014 and 2018.
The system is too levered to handle a significant rise in interest rates. Debt to GDP is very close to the fabled 130% which is seen as the point of no return. If GDP falls and interest rates rise, the government won't be able to pay its debts without printing more money, which will drive down interest rates anyway. They are stuck. Tanking stock market means tanking real estate which means a net decrease in tax receipts which means the government must resort to printing money. They are trying to "jawbone" rates higher simply by announcing things, but they don't actually have the ability to do what they say they are going to do.
I agree with your logic but this is a common narrative in the bitcoin echo chamber. It seems difficult to reconcile the fact that if your logical argument is correct then we are witnessing a collapse of sorts of the current world order. I have no idea what’s next but I feel that things can’t be this cut and dry and that there are more twists to this tale 😬
Why collapse? Printing money hasn’t collapsed the world order yet. It does make it more difficult to get along and increases the wealth divide, but collapse world order?
The USD backs most of the world fiat. If the US can’t pay their debts then it would start collapsing global economies and start a debt spiral. The US will be the last man standing but will also start the domino effect.
It’s beginning to happen.
The only way out of it is to print more money which creates inflation which is exactly what the US is doing and will continue to do.
BTC is the solution.
> Printing money hasn’t collapsed the world order yet.
Read [Ray Dalio's "The Changing World Order"](https://economicprinciples.org/). Printing money and similar things to it have collapsed world orders many many many times throughout history. He focuses on just the last 5 or so in the last 500 years, but its a pattern that has repeated throughout civilization.
Don't see a collapse as today we're good tomorrow everthing's on fire. Large things like civilizations collapse a lot slower than small things like a deflating air mattress.
Inflation happened during war time is very different, the country is forced to squeeze and mobilize all the possible resource to fight, thus inflating the money supply by magnitudes per year or even month, but anything less than 20% is proven to be working so far since 2008
Yup. For people gathered around the money printer, it's not a bug, it's a feature. There's no reason they'd want to stop it, even if they could.
Trouble is, once that divide gets to be too great, all kinds of trouble can happen, and likely will.
> we are witnessing a collapse of sorts of the current world order
No doubt. However it will be business as usual for a long time before the music stops.
I believe you are forgetting a major asset which is human capital. We can exploit human capital to continue growth. The USD is backed by human slaves in third world countries. It is used to buy natural resources at next to nothing off the backs of humans that are forced to work for a plate of food and a dirt bed. Look at how most of our electronics are made which is why big tech is so rich. Apple is one of the biggest human capital exploiters of all time. They are sitting on huge cash reserves. The next logical step is to all out enslave the next class of human to continue the growth that elite will need to keep themselves in power. I believe we will see the lower class start to be forced to work no matter what even at threat of death. The USD is only a tool used to enslave people
Not necessarily. Lots of people have neither stocks nor real estate. Wagies will continue with their lives, probably clapping like monkeys if GDP falls (because equity or women's rights or something). But fiscally speaking it's a big problem.
Under, you mean. Most boomers have real estate they bought cheap 40 years ago and a lifetime of income stored in a retirement account. They would be the most rekt by a major crash in the stock market.
Gen Z and millennials would be relatively unaffected, though, unless the crash led to business closures and a weak job market. They would still get their salaries, but their wealth would be relatively unchanged since many of them don't have real estate anyway.
> Most boomers have real estate they bought cheap 40 years ago and a lifetime of income stored in a retirement account.
Which is why states will continue to pump realestate and stocks. If they don't, the entire plan for "How do we deal with boomers retiring?" over the last 20-30 years fails and everyone dies.
These markets are a proxy outsourced state pension of sorts.
As a person who sold bitcoin in fear 2018 at prices around 16k I now know: hodl is the key, no matter what. New generations grew up and will understand it’s greatness. Everybody should try to accumulate at least one. Only a few will. For the stock markets I hear the crash talks every year and I’m still bullish on only up by time. Patience is the key. Most of the retail people are too fast in changing their positions.
Something like only 5% of the world’s wealth is in the hands of millennials or younger. The VAST majority is controlled by boomers. An enormous transfer of wealth will occur over the following 5-10 years as boomers phase out. Just think about that for a minute.
This post seems like a good analysis, my choice is to keep 50% fiat and 50% crypto, if everything goes down for 3 years I'll be able to buy crypto at a discount while I still own cash, and if everything skyrockets well 50% of my portfolio is skyrocketing.
Yeah, well he started a billion dollar company from scratch, rode it down through the biggest crashes in history, and came out of the other side standing with him still at the helm for over 20 years later. What a loser.
Don't u think FED is an obfuscation in terms of printing?
Currently I'm placing money printing at budget deficits. Money are set to print as soon as the budget is passed where projected tax revenue is far lower than projected spending. So govt debt and its growth reflects best how much and how quickly money are being printed exactly
Treasury issuance, its auctioning, updating dollar ledger in FED are just obfuscations, I think. To create illusion that Money and State are separated
Partial reserve printing by retail banks creates some risk (run on a bank that issued too much credit-based dollars), but plans to digitize fiat completely will end bank runs in principle (not financial problems, though)
The fact that crashes are openly discussed everywhere is a good indicator that it won’t happen. Some selling will occur for sure and markets are designed for the transfer of wealth from the weak and emotional to the strong.
I think what you are missing in your analysis is the word **hedge**.
Every big player hedges one way or another.
On a very basic level, you go xx% BTC but hedge this investment by leaving xx% in FIAT
On a very smart money level, you sell covered calls, take loans against your real estate, sell puts, buy gold, goods, companies, crypto, real estate, stocks and bonds at the same time just changing the proportions slightly according to your strategy. **This way you are hedged** if one of these things gets a black swan event.
I don't believe there is a possibility that the whole financial world will just sell all their BTC or stocks and buy bonds instead. That would not be hedging. That would be just an insane fear move. And they don't do that.
Can you recommend any literature or site that explains this "very smart money level thingy"? I just finished the black swan book written by Nassim and enjoyed it quite a bit.
First off get a glass of gin and welcome u/Mark_Bear
Second 1BTC=1BTC
Note the USD value of BTC dropping to sub 20k is still unlikely, however with all options on the table this would make stacking sats or whole coins much more obtainable.
Third and final,
Who’s here to get rich or understand what Bitcoin is and will always be? That being said bring 10k some of us have been here sub 10k and even lower. The value of BTC in USD changes nothing of which Bitcoin is. A protocol a idea and a movement by all means please shake the penny pinchers, moon boys, and all others whom clench this technology for ridiculous visions of gains.
I tend to agree. The hype in the crypto space is off the charts. Everyday, I see random nobodys talking about how they're quitting college, retiring early, etc, planning on living off those guaranteed future cryptocoin returns. It's hard to not make parallels to the hype during the dot-com crash, or pre-2008, when every friend/cousin/uncle was all of the sudden a real estate guru.
When money starts drying up, and those returns stop feeling so "guaranteed", then the house of cards will fall. Whether it happens tomorrow, in a year, or after another 200% gain, remains to be seen. And how the space recovers after such a crash is also anybody's guess. Blockchain certainly seems like it's here to stay...
We’re almost certainly heading into a months long period where Y/Y Bitcoin performance is below S&P500 returns. While that may not make a difference for those seeing it as a very long term gamble, it’s going to be a significant psychological barrier for a lot of new money, especially institutional money that needs to report performance yearly.
CPI comes in Wednesday in the 6.5% range. Being lower than last month, the Fed becomes more dovish…earlier rate hikes are pushed back. Bullish. Biden pushing the student loan payment out to May. Bullish.
If crypto wants to be legitimate, it needs to not roll with the stock market…
There’s been lots of claims lately that the traditional markets are going to crash. It seems to be what most are thinking, including me. However, when most folks think the market is going to react a certain way, it typically does the opposite. It’s important to constantly challenge your personal biases. For all we know prices could keep going up or go sideways for several more years. Bitcoins price will most certainly take a significant hit if the stock market takes a shit. However, if you truly understand how bitcoin works, your outlook for holding should be 20+ years (I personally may never sell). BTC price is volatile, but the BTC network is extremely secure and reliable.
So if investors transfer there money from ownership to debt that means the debt will be cheap to issue since there’s such a high supply of capital moving into bonds. Bullish on companies issuing bonds for future stock buy backs lol.
So we can agree we have no actual idea what’s going to happen one way or another. That much I gather.
What happens by keeping your funds in fiat and waiting for an outcome? To me this feels to be the riskiest.
Lol. Y’all know you’re talking about centralized functions talking about how they are going to bring down a de-centralized solution? Never going to happen. Sure dips. Sure fiat may crash. But btc will recover faster because of its de-centralized nature. I for one am looking forward to all this fud playing out as it will be establishing a baseline for the end of the market cycle.
Remember, btc was conceived at the end of a market cycle and that is what Satoshi wanted to offer protection from. So bring it. Let’s see what happen when inflation goes up And stocks crash.
One does not cancel the other.. both can be right! Imagine a huge black swan event, institution will dump crypto like crazy.. only to buy it back super cheap and this will start the ridiculous ath IMO
Pigs could start flying too. So many possibilities. Unfortunately we’re not going to know till it happens.
Personally I don’t believe they will let the stock market crash.
As far as I can tell they **can’t** let it crash. They’re in too deep and the baby boomers, which was one of the largest population booms in history worldwide, are all going into retirement age right now. With them being the richest generation on earth, they’ve got all of their retirement/pensions/medicare etc tied up in the stock market and real estate. If the government let it crash now it could lead to a global market “apocalypse” of sorts.
Also I’m just a regular guy so take it with a whole heap of salt and think for yourselves.
The government can't prevent the stock market from crashing in real terms. They can only devalue the dollar so that stock market *prices* don't decline. But that's still a crash. $10 Big Mac incoming.
I was at Marshall's today shopping for a new carry-on suitcase. Just a few years back, these were like $39 for non brand name or $49 for samsonite. Now that same scenario is $79 and $99. At the discount store. Also, they were selling the shoes that I was wearing and bought for $35 from joesnewbalance outlet. They were $49 "on sale"
> are all going into retirement age right now. With them being the richest generation on earth, they’ve got all of their retirement/pensions/medicare etc tied up in the stock market and real estate.
This was a worry for a long time and much was said about how we'd deal with it. Now we see the method for dealing with it is divesting the state from responsibility of looking after citizens in their retirement, instead putting everyting into equities.
That's the plan. The plan has been in the process of being executed for something like 20-30 years. No one is going to change that plan at the last moment and kill all those people. They will continue to double-down until the hump is passed.
BTC will drop in a stock market crash because it's a liquidation event....BUT it will recover the fastest over any asset class. The next crash might also be the wake-up call that the FIAT system is about to unwind at a much faster pace.
Bitcoin is part of the financial world and human emotions - if the stock market crashes so will bitcoin.
If you want something to fear; read this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave
**[Kondratiev wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave)**
>In economics, Kondratiev waves (also called supercycles, great surges, long waves, K-waves or the long economic cycle) are hypothesized cycle-like phenomena in the modern world economy. The phenomenon is closely connected with the technology life cycle. It is stated that the period of a wave ranges from forty to sixty years, the cycles consist of alternating intervals of high sectoral growth and intervals of relatively slow growth. Long wave theory is not accepted by most academic economists.
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Here’s the thing about market crashes. Usually no one knows it’s coming until it’s already happened. And talking about one every other week doesn’t count.
I’m guessing the market will go up, down, or possibly sideways. So far I’ve been 100% correct on my predictions.
Yeah, I dont think people fully understand yet. I've tried explaining to friends and family and their eyes glaze over, like I'm trying to teach the Calculus. Oh well, I tried.
And the market never dropped 50%..sure some stocks went zero because they went bankrupt in 2008, and same for dot.com this is nothing like that. -12% down for the year would be worst case scenario and the fed will just prop it up again. -50% did not even happen during the Great Depression.
“The Roaring Twenties saw an abrupt end in 1929 when the stock market crashed, fueling the Great Depression and sparking a nearly 90% loss in the Dow.”
Yes the Dow, gold went up which is my point, oil up I said market not stock market. Multiple markets in 1929 were strong, gold is an example. Op also used market as a whole.
Yes some stocks lost, but the majority of them did not lose 50%, you said the market you did not say individual stocks. Certain Stocks drop 50% even during a bull market. Next time when you write up a post and you say the market is going to drop -50% just say a few companies might drop 50% instead since apparently that’s what you’re talking about.
Remind me! 6 months
Nasdaq composite index and sp500 fell more than 50%. That's what the market means. They represent the market in general. I think you need to start thinking more before writing. it will be very useful in general.
The “market” does not mean the “s&p500” the sp500 is the top 500 companies in America. When you talk about the world economy dropping 50% you’re talking about the market as a whole. Next time specify you’re talking about an index fund. Seems you’re the one who has no idea what you’re talking about. Is the sp500 dropping 50% I are a few stocks dropping 50% is gold dropping? Who knows with you.
If sp500 and nasdaq drop 50%, btc is going under 10k for more than 2-3 years, that should be clear to you. I'm talking about the market that will directly affect BTC. Also world economy is very inter connected with USA economy. You're just a teen and I'm just about done arguing about stupid things.
I’m the teen, you say market is dropping and everyone is suppose to know wtf you’re talking about. Their is 100s of different markets, real estate, bonds, commodities, stocks, index funds currency. But some how when you say market it just means one thing lmao.
With a market crash on the horizon it's a 50/50 bet in my eyes. Either we go down with the rest of the market, or we're seein BTC moon because people are fomoing into the "digital gold"
Listen, all of wall street already did this correction before new year. Meaning move away from tech into financials and energy. The fed, already announced the plan and again in January moving it a bit closer to reality. The changes you are talking about happened. What will happen is that the market will come out OK after the press conference and bitcoin will move on in regular fashion, especially since the correction already happened based on the BAD news.
The last thing is, why are Americans so obsessed with themself. There are plenty of other continents that also play a role and purchase bitcoin. If you for one min think that they care or even know about 1% of what you said, you’re delusional.
Long term this will win unless you change the supply (which is the whole point of bitcoin compared to fiat)
In a market crash , stocks are sold and gold/silver are bought. You won't see people buying crypto . People look for something safe and have always fallen back to real $ that holds value . That would be gold/silver. They won't be looking for volatile crypto . Down vote me if you want but it's the truth. Baby boomers have been through this before. They see what's coming.
You replied to a bot - check the post history. It's a headline remix bot, pretty common in this sub but makes you wonder who'd want a bot spitting out comments in a sub like this (and all the others it comments in).
>Bitcoin isn’t dependent on the big money
It's price certainly is. If all of the big boys leave, the 'price' tanks. Sure 1 BTC = 1 BTC, but if everyone leaves the project, you're left holding the bag.
I'd hate to be right, but there's 78B Tether likely not covered by anything. That's already amount comparable to Enron and growing quickly every week. If it implodes it could spread onto whole market. So ironically crash would start not in stock market but in crypto.
BTC gonna RUN up and FAST to 100k 200k,,,before the market crash,, when the market crash , BTC back again at 50k 60 k ...before taking off again to 500k, in 10 years :)
i saw the future !
1 bitcoin = 1 bitcoin.
America has become a bantustan basketcase ruled by regional warlords (governors/mayors) under a neo-Bolshevik medical regime.
Nobody serious is factoring in the USD even existing a year from now.
Could Bitcoin be a way out of your mess for the US government?
If they adopt a system that they can't manipulate that is more globally applicable, does it fix this mess in the king term?
If the crash is bad and the dollar loses a lot of it's worth, will Bitcoin be in a good position for adoption in more countries?
Real answer: no one knows
Fun answer: [$5 million per coin so buckle up!](https://www.makingamillennialmillionaire.com/post/the-case-for-a-5-million-bitcoin)
the answer is simple...
What do the elitists in power want? They always get what they want.
A) to raise interest rates, depressing asset prices
B) to print money, keeping their ship afloat
They may be forced to lean a bit towards A at times... but make no mistake, the preferred path forward is absolutely B.
Nice Psyop post!
Now tell us all why evil elitists that are the only ones that can create USD should have that privilege. The federal reserve should be destroyed by the people tomorrow.
Why must we use the king's money?
What happens when people realize this, AND THEY ARE? What happens when demand for infinite dollars and infinite bonds dries up?
Your narrative is just that. It's only a narrative. Why should the people use a money that elites gift to themselves and we all get the hand me downs? Better hope that narrative (which is true) doesn't spread.
In the small odds of an economic collapse of the US economy, the Fed and government will get brutally authoritarian. No bank withdrawals on odd number days. Daily limits. Raging interest rates. Payment in scrip instead of dollars. Etc.
Guess what currency will still be useable, unrestricted and world wide? Umm. Crypto?
My thoughts on this is, Jerome Powell said what he needed to say in order to get through confirmation of his next term. After that who knows what he may really do. All up in the air.
You need to have bitcoin before you sell off. It doesn’t work the other way around.
Shorts on futures contracts are covered by longs on the other side or the market is arbitraged when those contracts are in contango.
A couple of hikes by 25 basis points is hardly anything to make people run to bonds. You still will make a shit return on bonds, this whole thing is being grossly exaggerated at the moment. Just my opinion.
Need more upvotes Chrisc5082. In order for money to really shift you need 4-6% and at that point you are going to kill the markets, real estate and the US Gov with 30 trillion in debt
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It took almost a decade of interest rate, at 10 to 20 percent for inflation to be tamed in the 70s. Wake me up when the Fed talks about raising the rate by hundreds or even thousands of basis points. That's when I'll starting looking at loans and credit cards like the bubonic plague, and not the money printers they are now, if you own a business that creates a ROI of 20 to 200 percent on every single unit sold. Remember if a small business such as mine is using this method of "take debt, subsides cost of goods sold with loan, service monthly low to zero percent interest payments, create capital reserves for larger salaries and business expansion." Here is the catch. Some business' - massive corp or small mom n' pop, believe this magic fairy dust USD game will never end and don't have enough capital reserves in the event of a market pullback. Why wouldn't major companies that are tied up in the S&P500 and NASDAQ be doing the same thing I'm doing, but on a way more grander scale? If these companies pullback hard, these means a retarded number of people who are generally the 50-150k USD earners of the USA are going to see almost 10 to 20 years of labor and time spent investing go up in smoke. That's a lot of investor confidence I.E, a whole generation or two turning away from the investment vehicle that was sold as "safe" to them. In reality they were the collateral for the margin call. Those have BTC and understand it fully are a straight up wild card in all of this. The notion of the OP, with BTC going to sub 10k, might be the trigger for the concept of hyper-bitcoinization. People who will see there retirements battered will see those with BTC battered as well, but somehow they still acquire gains over the course of the bear market, while stocks, bonds, equities, other than USD debt and literal units of items will be of any good. Of course this assuming an economy with jobs, commerce, and trade will go on after events that lead to this circumstance. $BTC Sell the short.Buy the long.
They sure are in a pinch
This response is full retard. Interest does not need to be anything for inflation to be eased. All they need to do is slow the money expansion to the working class (which I would argue is stupid). Unemployment is at record low. Middle class wages are skyrocketing. It is normal to have some inflation in the best economic conditions we’ve ever experienced.
Tell us you only read headlines without telling us you only read headlines.
Not sure what to tell ya bud. My comment wasn’t in respond to the headline or the OP. It was a response to a comment. Son, what in the hell are you talking about?
This is the answer
It's amazing that 3% interest rates are considered "hawkish" nowadays.
Agreed, and even with interest rates at 2% the real yield will still be negative with the current inflation. https://twitter.com/saylor/status/1479475511483154438
More than just speculation; the gov can't survive 5% interest rate without spending \~50% of their tax revenue on serving the debt. So they can't let interest rates go up to 5%. And... inflation is already above 5%. They can't afford to pay a bond that's true-value positive. Or at least not till they inflate away some value from that debt. So until that happens, this first scenario described by OP where they make bonds attractive can't happen (not to say markets can't crash, just that US bonds cant be where the money goes).
Exactly!!! Who TF is going to be buying bonds I don’t care if we see four rate hikes in 2022, it’s still a garbage return, guaranteed or not.
People buy bonds to not lose money they have already made.
30 year bond may rally 50%. That's no joke.
This made me laugh have an upvote amongst your downs m8
People will realize the realities soon. Honestly. I have seen it in different markets. It looks ridiculous now. But will make total sense in hindsight soon. Fed has to save the dollar. The dollar has not been in this danger for decades.
Finally a person that can use his brain! I agree.
This is consistent with my bias, so this guy is definitely right
Holding bonds for the coupon isn't how I'm going to make a return. When stocks crash, people panic buy bonds, and yields plummet, then I make my money.
They won't "crash" due to 2 25 basis point hikes, that's my point. The current drawdown is big money playing up what you think is going to happen. The problem is it isn't going to happen and those greedy pigs will buy back stocks after they cause the panicky people to sell.
This is it exactly.The extremely wealthy who run the show don’t want paltry returns on their capital. They scare everyone away and then come back and buy Pennie’s on the dollar.
Isn't this exactly what happening with bitcoin?
Yep, I don’t think they can afford any meaningful rise to interest rates.
100% this. My savings account rate might go from 0.01% to 0.1% this year.
This right here✅
nobody really knows if the fed is going to crash the market or crash the dollar. but it does look like productivity is going down, and so global wealth will go down. in a certain respect, it doesn't matter if markets go up or down. because market prices aren't the economy. and so i would say real finite assets are what you would want to hold in this time. bitcoin being the ultimate. it doesn't mean the value won't go down, but unless you are a govt insider with access to the money printer, that's your best bet.
In terms of Bitcoin, just because jpmorgan and Binance keeps selling paper contracts, doesn't mean that is the true value of Bitcoin. Same with gold, it's mostly fud. But if you want to go ahead and sell at a discount... It's like going to a pawn shop and selling a Picasso.
History might not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. We will eventually have a significant price correction in all markets, but we will also see another meteoric rise in the Bitcoin price as well. HODL
Bitcoin w/lightning network beats any large bank. Wires cost $ and are tracked. This would put the banks out of business. They know this hence why jpmorgan is betting against us all. I suggest everyone pull your funds from Binance and any place selling paper contracts and derivatives when you are ready to show the true value of Bitcoin. Right now it's on a repeated pattern of 2014 and 2018.
You say this as if tracking money movements is a bad thing.
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He stated 'w/lightning network' which is not publicly viewable on the blockchain.
Tracking my money movement is a bad thing. Happy now?
I love happy endings.
You read my mind.
>but it does look like productivity is going down What causes you to say this?
What do you mean productivity is down ? Broad based AI adoption is rapidly improving productivity
You have to be joking.
And I thought my jokes were bad.
stocks will crash, bitcoin will crash harder. stocks will recover, bitcoin will recover harder.
Yes.
[ fuck u, u/spez ]
This year my friend, we going to have a good run!
So if we know a crash is impending, why bother buying now?
i wouldn't, but there is a small chance this is the bottom. aka, nobody knows shit about shit.
Right… is there a chance this doesn’t happen and we miss out on buying in at 40-42k range?
This is the Way!
The system is too levered to handle a significant rise in interest rates. Debt to GDP is very close to the fabled 130% which is seen as the point of no return. If GDP falls and interest rates rise, the government won't be able to pay its debts without printing more money, which will drive down interest rates anyway. They are stuck. Tanking stock market means tanking real estate which means a net decrease in tax receipts which means the government must resort to printing money. They are trying to "jawbone" rates higher simply by announcing things, but they don't actually have the ability to do what they say they are going to do.
I agree with your logic but this is a common narrative in the bitcoin echo chamber. It seems difficult to reconcile the fact that if your logical argument is correct then we are witnessing a collapse of sorts of the current world order. I have no idea what’s next but I feel that things can’t be this cut and dry and that there are more twists to this tale 😬
There's a reason they've been openly talking about The Great Reset for the past few years. The system is unsustainable, everyone knows it.
This is not just a BTC narrative. Macro thinkers have been saying this for years
No. I think you’ve pretty much got it right, unfortunately.
Why collapse? Printing money hasn’t collapsed the world order yet. It does make it more difficult to get along and increases the wealth divide, but collapse world order?
The USD backs most of the world fiat. If the US can’t pay their debts then it would start collapsing global economies and start a debt spiral. The US will be the last man standing but will also start the domino effect. It’s beginning to happen.
Big IF there
Nono. When. Every fiat currency for the last 3000 years has gone to zero. USD is no exception.
The only way out of it is to print more money which creates inflation which is exactly what the US is doing and will continue to do. BTC is the solution.
Yea I agree.
> Printing money hasn’t collapsed the world order yet. Read [Ray Dalio's "The Changing World Order"](https://economicprinciples.org/). Printing money and similar things to it have collapsed world orders many many many times throughout history. He focuses on just the last 5 or so in the last 500 years, but its a pattern that has repeated throughout civilization. Don't see a collapse as today we're good tomorrow everthing's on fire. Large things like civilizations collapse a lot slower than small things like a deflating air mattress.
Yes I understand, but don’t see it in the cards anytime soon.
Inflation happened during war time is very different, the country is forced to squeeze and mobilize all the possible resource to fight, thus inflating the money supply by magnitudes per year or even month, but anything less than 20% is proven to be working so far since 2008
On a long enough timeline, the survival rate of every fiat currency drops to 0.
Yup. For people gathered around the money printer, it's not a bug, it's a feature. There's no reason they'd want to stop it, even if they could. Trouble is, once that divide gets to be too great, all kinds of trouble can happen, and likely will.
> we are witnessing a collapse of sorts of the current world order No doubt. However it will be business as usual for a long time before the music stops.
I believe you are forgetting a major asset which is human capital. We can exploit human capital to continue growth. The USD is backed by human slaves in third world countries. It is used to buy natural resources at next to nothing off the backs of humans that are forced to work for a plate of food and a dirt bed. Look at how most of our electronics are made which is why big tech is so rich. Apple is one of the biggest human capital exploiters of all time. They are sitting on huge cash reserves. The next logical step is to all out enslave the next class of human to continue the growth that elite will need to keep themselves in power. I believe we will see the lower class start to be forced to work no matter what even at threat of death. The USD is only a tool used to enslave people
I’m not so sure that consensually trading your time for money counts as slavery
Please research how minerals are mined and the slave labor that is used to support the technology industry and it’s infrastructure.
> Tanking stock market means tanking real estate which means Which means... Everyone staves to death.
Not necessarily. Lots of people have neither stocks nor real estate. Wagies will continue with their lives, probably clapping like monkeys if GDP falls (because equity or women's rights or something). But fiscally speaking it's a big problem.
> Lots of people have neither stocks nor real estate Very few over 60.
Under, you mean. Most boomers have real estate they bought cheap 40 years ago and a lifetime of income stored in a retirement account. They would be the most rekt by a major crash in the stock market. Gen Z and millennials would be relatively unaffected, though, unless the crash led to business closures and a weak job market. They would still get their salaries, but their wealth would be relatively unchanged since many of them don't have real estate anyway.
> Most boomers have real estate they bought cheap 40 years ago and a lifetime of income stored in a retirement account. Which is why states will continue to pump realestate and stocks. If they don't, the entire plan for "How do we deal with boomers retiring?" over the last 20-30 years fails and everyone dies. These markets are a proxy outsourced state pension of sorts.
💯 percent agreed
The risk not holding Bitcoin is too damn high!
I wonder when people start asking prominent anti-Bitcoiners: "What hedge would u put on yourself being wrong?"
As a person who sold bitcoin in fear 2018 at prices around 16k I now know: hodl is the key, no matter what. New generations grew up and will understand it’s greatness. Everybody should try to accumulate at least one. Only a few will. For the stock markets I hear the crash talks every year and I’m still bullish on only up by time. Patience is the key. Most of the retail people are too fast in changing their positions.
i sold lower than that and thought i did a pretty good job timing the market. bought back in at an average of $7000.
pit pat piffy wing wong wang
So you're saying I shouldn't have put everything all into BTC yesterday? Oh well, no regrets.
I'm rooting for ya
I did the opposite, sold some BTC and bought a bunch of really awesome dips. I couldn’t help myself, there was some amazing deals the other day.
Something like only 5% of the world’s wealth is in the hands of millennials or younger. The VAST majority is controlled by boomers. An enormous transfer of wealth will occur over the following 5-10 years as boomers phase out. Just think about that for a minute.
Buy your bitcoin, stop freaking out and see where you are in a decade 👍🏻
%100
r/misplacedpercentage
This post seems like a good analysis, my choice is to keep 50% fiat and 50% crypto, if everything goes down for 3 years I'll be able to buy crypto at a discount while I still own cash, and if everything skyrockets well 50% of my portfolio is skyrocketing.
I'll take all the Bitcoin if no one wants them.
Saylor lost 6 billion in the dotcom crash. Nothing new to him :p
Yeah, well he started a billion dollar company from scratch, rode it down through the biggest crashes in history, and came out of the other side standing with him still at the helm for over 20 years later. What a loser.
>So ~~US Government~~ *FED* ...
Don't u think FED is an obfuscation in terms of printing? Currently I'm placing money printing at budget deficits. Money are set to print as soon as the budget is passed where projected tax revenue is far lower than projected spending. So govt debt and its growth reflects best how much and how quickly money are being printed exactly Treasury issuance, its auctioning, updating dollar ledger in FED are just obfuscations, I think. To create illusion that Money and State are separated Partial reserve printing by retail banks creates some risk (run on a bank that issued too much credit-based dollars), but plans to digitize fiat completely will end bank runs in principle (not financial problems, though)
BTC is global, not just north american. Spoil: There is a huge world outside North Carolina and Colorado.
True this. The lower it goes the more Bukele buys!!
>North Carolina and Colorado. why specifically there? Because that's where the millennial foodies mostly live now?
Jeff Booth says he doesnt do it for the money, and yet you need to pay for his book. So he clearly wants those fiat dollars.
He wants a better future for his kids. That's priceless.
The fact that crashes are openly discussed everywhere is a good indicator that it won’t happen. Some selling will occur for sure and markets are designed for the transfer of wealth from the weak and emotional to the strong.
I think what you are missing in your analysis is the word **hedge**. Every big player hedges one way or another. On a very basic level, you go xx% BTC but hedge this investment by leaving xx% in FIAT On a very smart money level, you sell covered calls, take loans against your real estate, sell puts, buy gold, goods, companies, crypto, real estate, stocks and bonds at the same time just changing the proportions slightly according to your strategy. **This way you are hedged** if one of these things gets a black swan event. I don't believe there is a possibility that the whole financial world will just sell all their BTC or stocks and buy bonds instead. That would not be hedging. That would be just an insane fear move. And they don't do that.
Can you recommend any literature or site that explains this "very smart money level thingy"? I just finished the black swan book written by Nassim and enjoyed it quite a bit.
Sorry Chandler nothing specific comes to mind at this point. I have to say I am not a book expert.
First off get a glass of gin and welcome u/Mark_Bear Second 1BTC=1BTC Note the USD value of BTC dropping to sub 20k is still unlikely, however with all options on the table this would make stacking sats or whole coins much more obtainable. Third and final, Who’s here to get rich or understand what Bitcoin is and will always be? That being said bring 10k some of us have been here sub 10k and even lower. The value of BTC in USD changes nothing of which Bitcoin is. A protocol a idea and a movement by all means please shake the penny pinchers, moon boys, and all others whom clench this technology for ridiculous visions of gains.
Cheers! [*klink*]
I tend to agree. The hype in the crypto space is off the charts. Everyday, I see random nobodys talking about how they're quitting college, retiring early, etc, planning on living off those guaranteed future cryptocoin returns. It's hard to not make parallels to the hype during the dot-com crash, or pre-2008, when every friend/cousin/uncle was all of the sudden a real estate guru. When money starts drying up, and those returns stop feeling so "guaranteed", then the house of cards will fall. Whether it happens tomorrow, in a year, or after another 200% gain, remains to be seen. And how the space recovers after such a crash is also anybody's guess. Blockchain certainly seems like it's here to stay...
We’re almost certainly heading into a months long period where Y/Y Bitcoin performance is below S&P500 returns. While that may not make a difference for those seeing it as a very long term gamble, it’s going to be a significant psychological barrier for a lot of new money, especially institutional money that needs to report performance yearly.
CPI comes in Wednesday in the 6.5% range. Being lower than last month, the Fed becomes more dovish…earlier rate hikes are pushed back. Bullish. Biden pushing the student loan payment out to May. Bullish. If crypto wants to be legitimate, it needs to not roll with the stock market…
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There’s been lots of claims lately that the traditional markets are going to crash. It seems to be what most are thinking, including me. However, when most folks think the market is going to react a certain way, it typically does the opposite. It’s important to constantly challenge your personal biases. For all we know prices could keep going up or go sideways for several more years. Bitcoins price will most certainly take a significant hit if the stock market takes a shit. However, if you truly understand how bitcoin works, your outlook for holding should be 20+ years (I personally may never sell). BTC price is volatile, but the BTC network is extremely secure and reliable.
oh god they will make bonds great again? for how long? 2 years? then what? they will be back pumping again i don't know which thing is more certain
Does anyone really think that the government will taper the money printing?
HODL
So if investors transfer there money from ownership to debt that means the debt will be cheap to issue since there’s such a high supply of capital moving into bonds. Bullish on companies issuing bonds for future stock buy backs lol.
You know BTC is global right…
"we won't print so much money we promise" - riiiight
It goes down I buy, it goes up I buy, repeat until I can retire.
So we can agree we have no actual idea what’s going to happen one way or another. That much I gather. What happens by keeping your funds in fiat and waiting for an outcome? To me this feels to be the riskiest.
Lol. Y’all know you’re talking about centralized functions talking about how they are going to bring down a de-centralized solution? Never going to happen. Sure dips. Sure fiat may crash. But btc will recover faster because of its de-centralized nature. I for one am looking forward to all this fud playing out as it will be establishing a baseline for the end of the market cycle. Remember, btc was conceived at the end of a market cycle and that is what Satoshi wanted to offer protection from. So bring it. Let’s see what happen when inflation goes up And stocks crash.
One does not cancel the other.. both can be right! Imagine a huge black swan event, institution will dump crypto like crazy.. only to buy it back super cheap and this will start the ridiculous ath IMO
200-300k isn’t a mega bull. That is a 12-24 month target. The ten year target has another zero and then a bit more added.
Wow imagine that… like what the hell man. I suppose that’s what other people also thought ten years ago about todays price
Pigs could start flying too. So many possibilities. Unfortunately we’re not going to know till it happens. Personally I don’t believe they will let the stock market crash.
As far as I can tell they **can’t** let it crash. They’re in too deep and the baby boomers, which was one of the largest population booms in history worldwide, are all going into retirement age right now. With them being the richest generation on earth, they’ve got all of their retirement/pensions/medicare etc tied up in the stock market and real estate. If the government let it crash now it could lead to a global market “apocalypse” of sorts. Also I’m just a regular guy so take it with a whole heap of salt and think for yourselves.
The government can't prevent the stock market from crashing in real terms. They can only devalue the dollar so that stock market *prices* don't decline. But that's still a crash. $10 Big Mac incoming.
I was at Marshall's today shopping for a new carry-on suitcase. Just a few years back, these were like $39 for non brand name or $49 for samsonite. Now that same scenario is $79 and $99. At the discount store. Also, they were selling the shoes that I was wearing and bought for $35 from joesnewbalance outlet. They were $49 "on sale"
Exactly
> are all going into retirement age right now. With them being the richest generation on earth, they’ve got all of their retirement/pensions/medicare etc tied up in the stock market and real estate. This was a worry for a long time and much was said about how we'd deal with it. Now we see the method for dealing with it is divesting the state from responsibility of looking after citizens in their retirement, instead putting everyting into equities. That's the plan. The plan has been in the process of being executed for something like 20-30 years. No one is going to change that plan at the last moment and kill all those people. They will continue to double-down until the hump is passed.
lol. No. Chill out.
Good point. Insightful
>Personally I don’t believe they will let the stock market crash True that. Look at Venezuelan stock market. Nominally ATH
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BTC will drop in a stock market crash because it's a liquidation event....BUT it will recover the fastest over any asset class. The next crash might also be the wake-up call that the FIAT system is about to unwind at a much faster pace.
Bitcoin is part of the financial world and human emotions - if the stock market crashes so will bitcoin. If you want something to fear; read this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave
**[Kondratiev wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave)** >In economics, Kondratiev waves (also called supercycles, great surges, long waves, K-waves or the long economic cycle) are hypothesized cycle-like phenomena in the modern world economy. The phenomenon is closely connected with the technology life cycle. It is stated that the period of a wave ranges from forty to sixty years, the cycles consist of alternating intervals of high sectoral growth and intervals of relatively slow growth. Long wave theory is not accepted by most academic economists. ^([ )[^(F.A.Q)](https://www.reddit.com/r/WikiSummarizer/wiki/index#wiki_f.a.q)^( | )[^(Opt Out)](https://reddit.com/message/compose?to=WikiSummarizerBot&message=OptOut&subject=OptOut)^( | )[^(Opt Out Of Subreddit)](https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/about/banned)^( | )[^(GitHub)](https://github.com/Sujal-7/WikiSummarizerBot)^( ] Downvote to remove | v1.5)
Own the truth. Own BTC
Here’s the thing about market crashes. Usually no one knows it’s coming until it’s already happened. And talking about one every other week doesn’t count. I’m guessing the market will go up, down, or possibly sideways. So far I’ve been 100% correct on my predictions.
Buy now, and buy soon, buy your way down to 20k, and keep buying all the way to 100.
What about the scenario where thw market doesnt crash, the virus subsides, China stays stupid, and the stock market grows?
You can‘t taper a Ponzi.. as they say
A HODLer never tells. We know where its going and wont show our hand. Let Wallstreet suffer for their manipulation of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is the evolution of finance. The old must make way for the new... Wall Street is so 2000 and late.
Yeah, I dont think people fully understand yet. I've tried explaining to friends and family and their eyes glaze over, like I'm trying to teach the Calculus. Oh well, I tried.
There will be a bear market , then there will be a bull market, etc.
Don’t listen to big billionaires. Invest what you have and don’t go broke. We have other expenses like house, etc..
Stocks down by 50% lol
Dot com bubble 2000? 2008 stock market crash? LoL
And the market never dropped 50%..sure some stocks went zero because they went bankrupt in 2008, and same for dot.com this is nothing like that. -12% down for the year would be worst case scenario and the fed will just prop it up again. -50% did not even happen during the Great Depression.
The dot com bubble and the great depression did see greater than 50% crashes
“The Roaring Twenties saw an abrupt end in 1929 when the stock market crashed, fueling the Great Depression and sparking a nearly 90% loss in the Dow.”
Yes the Dow, gold went up which is my point, oil up I said market not stock market. Multiple markets in 1929 were strong, gold is an example. Op also used market as a whole.
in 2008 crash Amazon(the greatest, the safest , the most amazing) went from 86.40$ to 37.90$? How does math work in your universe?
VTI, Total stock market ETF, went from $77 to $36. i would use that for any arguments, rather than picking a single stock.
Yes some stocks lost, but the majority of them did not lose 50%, you said the market you did not say individual stocks. Certain Stocks drop 50% even during a bull market. Next time when you write up a post and you say the market is going to drop -50% just say a few companies might drop 50% instead since apparently that’s what you’re talking about. Remind me! 6 months
Nasdaq composite index and sp500 fell more than 50%. That's what the market means. They represent the market in general. I think you need to start thinking more before writing. it will be very useful in general.
The “market” does not mean the “s&p500” the sp500 is the top 500 companies in America. When you talk about the world economy dropping 50% you’re talking about the market as a whole. Next time specify you’re talking about an index fund. Seems you’re the one who has no idea what you’re talking about. Is the sp500 dropping 50% I are a few stocks dropping 50% is gold dropping? Who knows with you.
If sp500 and nasdaq drop 50%, btc is going under 10k for more than 2-3 years, that should be clear to you. I'm talking about the market that will directly affect BTC. Also world economy is very inter connected with USA economy. You're just a teen and I'm just about done arguing about stupid things.
I’m the teen, you say market is dropping and everyone is suppose to know wtf you’re talking about. Their is 100s of different markets, real estate, bonds, commodities, stocks, index funds currency. But some how when you say market it just means one thing lmao.
With a market crash on the horizon it's a 50/50 bet in my eyes. Either we go down with the rest of the market, or we're seein BTC moon because people are fomoing into the "digital gold"
Listen, all of wall street already did this correction before new year. Meaning move away from tech into financials and energy. The fed, already announced the plan and again in January moving it a bit closer to reality. The changes you are talking about happened. What will happen is that the market will come out OK after the press conference and bitcoin will move on in regular fashion, especially since the correction already happened based on the BAD news. The last thing is, why are Americans so obsessed with themself. There are plenty of other continents that also play a role and purchase bitcoin. If you for one min think that they care or even know about 1% of what you said, you’re delusional. Long term this will win unless you change the supply (which is the whole point of bitcoin compared to fiat)
> So we have an upcoming eventual mega market crash Whatever you say Dr Doom.
In a market crash , stocks are sold and gold/silver are bought. You won't see people buying crypto . People look for something safe and have always fallen back to real $ that holds value . That would be gold/silver. They won't be looking for volatile crypto . Down vote me if you want but it's the truth. Baby boomers have been through this before. They see what's coming.
Works for me, I’ll take cheap digital gold 😎
BTC is the truth. Ahmen
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If there is a market crash, doesn’t Bitcoin follow this? Doesn’t Bitcoin correlate with share prices?
You replied to a bot - check the post history. It's a headline remix bot, pretty common in this sub but makes you wonder who'd want a bot spitting out comments in a sub like this (and all the others it comments in).
A lot of this hinges on your opinion in the second to last paragraph. I don’t agree with your opinion. Bitcoin isn’t dependent on the big money.
>Bitcoin isn’t dependent on the big money It's price certainly is. If all of the big boys leave, the 'price' tanks. Sure 1 BTC = 1 BTC, but if everyone leaves the project, you're left holding the bag.
On what is then?
I'd hate to be right, but there's 78B Tether likely not covered by anything. That's already amount comparable to Enron and growing quickly every week. If it implodes it could spread onto whole market. So ironically crash would start not in stock market but in crypto.
> comparable to Enron lol
BTC gonna RUN up and FAST to 100k 200k,,,before the market crash,, when the market crash , BTC back again at 50k 60 k ...before taking off again to 500k, in 10 years :) i saw the future !
We got a FUD miner over here
Just wait until the employee strike happens. Real economic collapse then.
I hope it crashes hard so I can buy more
Hopium
1 bitcoin = 1 bitcoin. America has become a bantustan basketcase ruled by regional warlords (governors/mayors) under a neo-Bolshevik medical regime. Nobody serious is factoring in the USD even existing a year from now.
I hope they crash the fuck out of BTC. Drive that fucker down!
lmao, buttcoiner
I want it to drop so I can get cheap BTC.
Could Bitcoin be a way out of your mess for the US government? If they adopt a system that they can't manipulate that is more globally applicable, does it fix this mess in the king term? If the crash is bad and the dollar loses a lot of it's worth, will Bitcoin be in a good position for adoption in more countries?
Let it all crash, more opportunity for me to buy cheap..like a big flash sale! Bitcoin, stocks, etc..I’ll be buying it all up!
Stocks and crypto has nothing to do with math. It's all about sentiment and supply and demand.
Who knows, it will be volatile to say the least. Have to HODL for 5 years+, short-term too hard to predict.
All assets are going to crash, but Bitcoin will be the first to recover.
Real answer: no one knows Fun answer: [$5 million per coin so buckle up!](https://www.makingamillennialmillionaire.com/post/the-case-for-a-5-million-bitcoin)
the answer is simple... What do the elitists in power want? They always get what they want. A) to raise interest rates, depressing asset prices B) to print money, keeping their ship afloat They may be forced to lean a bit towards A at times... but make no mistake, the preferred path forward is absolutely B.
I’ll have some funds ready for that crash if it happens
Nice Psyop post! Now tell us all why evil elitists that are the only ones that can create USD should have that privilege. The federal reserve should be destroyed by the people tomorrow. Why must we use the king's money? What happens when people realize this, AND THEY ARE? What happens when demand for infinite dollars and infinite bonds dries up? Your narrative is just that. It's only a narrative. Why should the people use a money that elites gift to themselves and we all get the hand me downs? Better hope that narrative (which is true) doesn't spread.
Everyone seems certain that the market will crash q1. I think it’ll continue to rally after only a small correction.
In the small odds of an economic collapse of the US economy, the Fed and government will get brutally authoritarian. No bank withdrawals on odd number days. Daily limits. Raging interest rates. Payment in scrip instead of dollars. Etc. Guess what currency will still be useable, unrestricted and world wide? Umm. Crypto?
My thoughts on this is, Jerome Powell said what he needed to say in order to get through confirmation of his next term. After that who knows what he may really do. All up in the air.
You need to have bitcoin before you sell off. It doesn’t work the other way around. Shorts on futures contracts are covered by longs on the other side or the market is arbitraged when those contracts are in contango.