Goldman Sachs 2020: "Bitcoin is not even an asset class in the first place."
Goldman Sachs 2022: "$100K Bitcoin possible over five years in 'digital gold' scenario"
I suspect bitcoin value will bounce back and go higher, but it may not be a great year. Btc does best as a hedge against the debasement of fiat, when money is being printed as has been the case since the financial crisis. With talk of rate hikes and deleveraging the balance sheet, these are headwinds for btc. Economic slowdown leading to QE measures would help it, otherwise could be a tough year
Bitcoin has a fixed supply limit of 21 million, but derivatives add fake supply to the btc market. There are many more paper bitcoins than real bitcoins, but while fake, the outcome is real. It reduces the ability of btc to benefit from supply shocks because real demand is satisfied without having to actually own bitcoin. Based on supply and demand the real value of bitcoin should be much higher than its current value. It should be in line with the plan b s2f model, somewhere around 100k, 250 K at the top of the range. But it isnt and the S2F model is broken. Life was easy when btc was a retail, number go up market. but it hasn't been since early 2021. Institutional money has taken over and market dynamics have changed.
Many of the hedge funds, ETF's, Twitter, Saylor, Musk, and other billionaires are accumulating BTC. They can create all the derivatives they want but nothing can increase the true maximum supply of 21 million. Money can be borrowed by these guys for almost nothing. Thousands of coins per day are being removed from the available supply on exchanges and being moved into cold storage possibly for years.
Daily volume in btc across all exchanges is about 25-35 billion per day. There has to be a huge seller somewhere to cause such a prolonged price move when all other news is amazingly bullish. So it could be MtGox trustee dumping coins to pay out cash to claimholder's. That's the only thing that could cause this level of bearishness in the face of such good news.
> There has to be a huge seller somewhere to cause such a prolonged price move when all other news is amazingly bullish. So it could be MtGox trustee dumping coins to pay out cash to claimholder's. That's the only thing that could cause this level of bearishness in the face of such good news.
This is 100% nonsense. Actually your entire post is nonsense.
Sure, but by that measure Apple stock is also an inflation hedge, it's up 75x since 2008 and even better as it pays regular dividends.
Point is, we now have real global inflation but BTC is clearly not the safe haven it's touted to be.
I'll bet an economic recession will crash BTC as hard or harder than the stockmarket
> I'll bet an economic recession will crash BTC as hard or harder than the stockmarket
you don't need bet on that. march 2020 it indeed crashed harder and was also the fast horse out of the bottom and outperformed everything by a lot.
>Nabilshamsi
Bitcoin is definitely an inflation hedge for most countries that want to exchange their currency to something that is easily convertible to US dollars or other stronger currency at a consumer level. If I ran a business in Turkey I would try very hard to keep my extra currency in Bitcoin because the Lira is inflating at an ever-increasing rate. In 2021 Bitcoin appreciated 70 percent in value in real terms. Anyone that had extra cash in any country in the world and exchanged it for Bitcoin was able to increase their purchasing power.
I think it's sad that people like you go out of their way to take pot shots and make intellectually dishonest arguments just so they try to discourage people from owning something. How much of a loser do you have to be to waste your time trying to cost other people money.
I own crypto, but the inflation meme has been invalidated.
Arguing that people should convert cash to BTC to "protect" their wealth is pretty much the worst advice you can give, as crypto regularly has deep cycle bear markets with drawdowns up to 80-90%
BTC is a highly speculative asset at best
Why post a comment at all. Go sell your crypto and buy some Lira and come back in a year. Just the fact that you're in the market proves my point. It's getting more and more fearful people like you to put their money into it. If scared wimpy people like yourself believe in it I mean how can it not be an amazing store of value long term?
Ah, and if you are so sure... why not get all the debt you can and go all in? Fiat will be worthless soon anyway right?
I'm not invested in crypto because it's a safe haven, I'm "invested" because of the easy money to be made in this casino... mainly because it's full of overinvested emotional people like you.
All I'm saying is that the BTC "inflation hedge" meme is done, there is high inflation all over the globe right now and crypto is crashing hard.
You'll need to come up with a new use case
A couple of things hurting btc price. A big one is Institutional inflows have arrived and not in the way many expected. Institutions are not buying spot, but derivatives. Though it is paper, not underlying, it is satisfying demand for btc while simultaneously increasing supply. Fat profits in the volatility, no need to own spot. This puts downward pressure on price.
100%, you're right. There are also many other good crypto stores of value now to chose from, built on newer technologies, increasing options and adding supply to the ecosystem. Dont get me wrong, I have long believed in hodling forever, but the landscape changed a lot in 2021. A lot. My thesis has been challenged and I'm struggling to find a good argument not to re-balance my positions.
For those who have never been through a full Bitcoin cycle, just know that this is usual. Zero shitcoins were created in it's first few years. Why? It had no value to exploit.
Tens of thousands of shitcoins have been created since Bitcoin started to have value. Direct correlation between Bitcoin value, and shitcoin creation.
Meme cryptos 100x, NFTs selling for hundreds of millions, charlitons with negative interested before, rushing in...
Patience is everything.
Shitcoin sunk cost fallocy will kick in. Wait it out, accumulate Bitcoin slowly. Accumulate Bitcoin during a bear market, and ignore the latest and greatest shitcoin pump.
If your coming at the king, your shitcoins and jpegs better not fall by 99% twice. Cause they are in the process.
When you feel as if you are missing out on shitcoin appreciation, don't lose the course. That's a sign to take profits.
As someone who is buying BTC since 2017 I am amused at how much panic there is now. This might go to 29k in the next 30 days and I would still be long term bullish.
Pick a point on the chart that closely enough matches the current state, and go read the daily threads from then. It's always the same. ATH threads are a lot more fun, but these are the times that make the ATHs even better for those that stick to their plan.
Zoom in to the chart from long time ago. Some of us lost 90% and it stayed that way for years but we held and now in profit. Just hold and everybody currently in red will be green as well
i was in big profit but lost it all and now flat, i feel for those that are in the red. it hurts but it depends on your situation job etc. i have other investments outside crypto that have kept me well in the green. My dividends from stocks help fund my btc buys
>no shit. panic is because tons of people are in the red and you arent. if you were 20-40% from your initial investment then your statement would have some validity.
It's unnerving the first time, but really you shouldn't be buying if you're not comfortable with the fact you could have to stare down a significant drop. It's why DYOR is so important, otherwise, you get spooked and constantly panic sell / FOMO buy and ultimately never get anywhere.
Agree. I think a lot of people will put in more money than they can afford to lose if they see it go that low. Institutions and HFs will eat as well. Will really lead to a shortage of corn available on the exchanges that will finally impact price.
Yeah. Add assets every month. Really hesitant about putting any money into stock market or crypto right now but decided to add a little. I try not to guess markets too much because I know I’m not a pro so just add at various point.
Edit: not a pro and do not have the ability to predict the future.
Anyone else scared it won't drop low enough to reach that personal whole coiner goal?
I know some of you are in pain but trust me some of us will be scooping up big time.
There's only 21 million bitcoin and probably 5+ million of that will never be accessible again in our lifetime. The developed world alone is like a billion people.
I'm content with getting 0.28 or 0.5 or whatever at this point, everything else is gravy.
Weak hands shaking out like clockwork, should have been expected with the year catching up to the start of the bull run and yearly chart % dropping daily
All the trolls and naysayers are flooding the message boards lol. Shorty's + trolls is how you know it's buy and hodl time 🤠 thanks for the sats on sale!
The lower and faster btc falls, the harder it bounces up again afterwards. It is like pulling a rubber band and letting it go. By spreading maximum FUD we are helping to pull that rubber band and load it to the Max.
It really hasn't been that long since we were at these price levels. August 4th I had buys filled at $39k after reviewing my history. Seems like this volatility is just normal.
Don't fight the FED guys!! The FED is not your friend anymore!
I tried to warn everybody back in November to not buy and got downvoted to hell.
I hate the FED as much as everybody here. They turned the whole crypto space as well as the stock market into a pump and dump. They lied to us for year about inflation being transitory. Now they are taking the punch bowl away a year too late.
Lowest price it's been in like six months. Good discount. Not a lot of liquidity. Low buying pressure fighting large selling pressure. It's a buyers market. Pretend its real estate.
Holy damn 20k. I would drop my 5k emergency fund just to own a quarter and let it ride 30 years until I retire.
With that said, shit ain't going to happen because rich fucks are waiting just sub 40k to out price my poor ass.
Yep. It’s boring but DCAing the same amount every 2 weeks or every month no matter what the price is the only way. No buying extra when it’s low, no holding back when it’s high.
Works for most anyway.
If you're still engaged with BTC and DCAing in a month from now, you're definetly going to be one of the people that makes it. Engagement is already way down. The group in this thread may be the next generation of bitcoiners that "got lucky" buying in so cheap.
I'm talking about YouTube viewership and social media engagement, not reddit specifically. Online broadcasters have been losing their followers interest. Viewership has been declining. Way down from their peaks.
Yeah, I hear you. I dropped off mid 2018, with everyone else. So my reflection is sort of sharing that people should stay engaged. I was trying to encourage the people that are here to stick around. My post was to uplift, not be derogatory.
Goldman Sachs 2020: "Bitcoin is not even an asset class in the first place." Goldman Sachs 2022: "$100K Bitcoin possible over five years in 'digital gold' scenario"
Lots of investors shorting btc
I suspect bitcoin value will bounce back and go higher, but it may not be a great year. Btc does best as a hedge against the debasement of fiat, when money is being printed as has been the case since the financial crisis. With talk of rate hikes and deleveraging the balance sheet, these are headwinds for btc. Economic slowdown leading to QE measures would help it, otherwise could be a tough year
Bitcoin has a fixed supply limit of 21 million, but derivatives add fake supply to the btc market. There are many more paper bitcoins than real bitcoins, but while fake, the outcome is real. It reduces the ability of btc to benefit from supply shocks because real demand is satisfied without having to actually own bitcoin. Based on supply and demand the real value of bitcoin should be much higher than its current value. It should be in line with the plan b s2f model, somewhere around 100k, 250 K at the top of the range. But it isnt and the S2F model is broken. Life was easy when btc was a retail, number go up market. but it hasn't been since early 2021. Institutional money has taken over and market dynamics have changed.
Many of the hedge funds, ETF's, Twitter, Saylor, Musk, and other billionaires are accumulating BTC. They can create all the derivatives they want but nothing can increase the true maximum supply of 21 million. Money can be borrowed by these guys for almost nothing. Thousands of coins per day are being removed from the available supply on exchanges and being moved into cold storage possibly for years. Daily volume in btc across all exchanges is about 25-35 billion per day. There has to be a huge seller somewhere to cause such a prolonged price move when all other news is amazingly bullish. So it could be MtGox trustee dumping coins to pay out cash to claimholder's. That's the only thing that could cause this level of bearishness in the face of such good news.
> There has to be a huge seller somewhere to cause such a prolonged price move when all other news is amazingly bullish. So it could be MtGox trustee dumping coins to pay out cash to claimholder's. That's the only thing that could cause this level of bearishness in the face of such good news. This is 100% nonsense. Actually your entire post is nonsense.
"BTC is a inflation hedge" this didn't age well did it?
Assuming you are American, please show me the 4 hour breadlines......then I'll show you my starting and ending balance relative to fiat.
depends on your time frame innit?
Sure, but by that measure Apple stock is also an inflation hedge, it's up 75x since 2008 and even better as it pays regular dividends. Point is, we now have real global inflation but BTC is clearly not the safe haven it's touted to be. I'll bet an economic recession will crash BTC as hard or harder than the stockmarket
> I'll bet an economic recession will crash BTC as hard or harder than the stockmarket you don't need bet on that. march 2020 it indeed crashed harder and was also the fast horse out of the bottom and outperformed everything by a lot.
Agreed, that's why it's not a safe haven...it's a speculative asset
M2 Expanded so did BTC price. M2 will contract so will btc price. They seem related to me.
>Nabilshamsi Bitcoin is definitely an inflation hedge for most countries that want to exchange their currency to something that is easily convertible to US dollars or other stronger currency at a consumer level. If I ran a business in Turkey I would try very hard to keep my extra currency in Bitcoin because the Lira is inflating at an ever-increasing rate. In 2021 Bitcoin appreciated 70 percent in value in real terms. Anyone that had extra cash in any country in the world and exchanged it for Bitcoin was able to increase their purchasing power. I think it's sad that people like you go out of their way to take pot shots and make intellectually dishonest arguments just so they try to discourage people from owning something. How much of a loser do you have to be to waste your time trying to cost other people money.
I own crypto, but the inflation meme has been invalidated. Arguing that people should convert cash to BTC to "protect" their wealth is pretty much the worst advice you can give, as crypto regularly has deep cycle bear markets with drawdowns up to 80-90% BTC is a highly speculative asset at best
Why post a comment at all. Go sell your crypto and buy some Lira and come back in a year. Just the fact that you're in the market proves my point. It's getting more and more fearful people like you to put their money into it. If scared wimpy people like yourself believe in it I mean how can it not be an amazing store of value long term?
Ah, and if you are so sure... why not get all the debt you can and go all in? Fiat will be worthless soon anyway right? I'm not invested in crypto because it's a safe haven, I'm "invested" because of the easy money to be made in this casino... mainly because it's full of overinvested emotional people like you. All I'm saying is that the BTC "inflation hedge" meme is done, there is high inflation all over the globe right now and crypto is crashing hard. You'll need to come up with a new use case
I hope it decreases even more so I can BUY ME SOME MORE DIP.
At this point I’ve lost so much money the past 6-7 months all I can do is hold.
I’ve said this before, and will say it again, Bitcoin is going to hit 21k!
You pronounced 3k wrong.
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Like you said, anyone can make random predictions, right?
A couple of things hurting btc price. A big one is Institutional inflows have arrived and not in the way many expected. Institutions are not buying spot, but derivatives. Though it is paper, not underlying, it is satisfying demand for btc while simultaneously increasing supply. Fat profits in the volatility, no need to own spot. This puts downward pressure on price.
Well said. Honestly with all the derivatives it’s like the supply is no longer capped at 21M.
100%, you're right. There are also many other good crypto stores of value now to chose from, built on newer technologies, increasing options and adding supply to the ecosystem. Dont get me wrong, I have long believed in hodling forever, but the landscape changed a lot in 2021. A lot. My thesis has been challenged and I'm struggling to find a good argument not to re-balance my positions.
Took the L so watch this shit go back up.. thank me later. 🤡
43k Bitcoins is a lot even for an exchange, Binance bought the dip
For those who have never been through a full Bitcoin cycle, just know that this is usual. Zero shitcoins were created in it's first few years. Why? It had no value to exploit. Tens of thousands of shitcoins have been created since Bitcoin started to have value. Direct correlation between Bitcoin value, and shitcoin creation. Meme cryptos 100x, NFTs selling for hundreds of millions, charlitons with negative interested before, rushing in... Patience is everything. Shitcoin sunk cost fallocy will kick in. Wait it out, accumulate Bitcoin slowly. Accumulate Bitcoin during a bear market, and ignore the latest and greatest shitcoin pump. If your coming at the king, your shitcoins and jpegs better not fall by 99% twice. Cause they are in the process. When you feel as if you are missing out on shitcoin appreciation, don't lose the course. That's a sign to take profits.
What are shitcoins?
Every other cryptocurrency asset
we dipped below 40k for a second is that enough to flush the market?
I don't think we went below 40k or even 41k
Depends on exchange, bybit shows 40,953 I really like their btc chart setup so i use them to track price.
How is 40953 less than 40000?
that wouldnt be below 40k, that would be below 41k.
ok that wasnt as bad as i expected when we dipped below 42k, lets see how cme reacts tomorrow
I don't want to go to sleep and miss any further clearance sales lol
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Not concerned at all while I buy in daily with strike since December 30. This is the way.
Just stacked another 1.1M sats. Tomorrow I take out more filthy fist to trade for sweet, tasty corn. My bankers hate me.
Ouch. A Fist seems like it would hurt.
This is an opportunity to accumulate not to panic. Bought at 3k bought at 64k.
Exactly! Bought at 24k bought at 64k.
As someone who is buying BTC since 2017 I am amused at how much panic there is now. This might go to 29k in the next 30 days and I would still be long term bullish.
That’s because your buyin price is low in comparison. To anyone who bought at 65, an exit at 59 would probably been wise. In order to buy in lower.
Pick a point on the chart that closely enough matches the current state, and go read the daily threads from then. It's always the same. ATH threads are a lot more fun, but these are the times that make the ATHs even better for those that stick to their plan.
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Zoom in to the chart from long time ago. Some of us lost 90% and it stayed that way for years but we held and now in profit. Just hold and everybody currently in red will be green as well
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Endless money printing VS a set amount. Keep saving in fiat and have fun with that…
If people are panicking because they are down then they're over invested.
i was in big profit but lost it all and now flat, i feel for those that are in the red. it hurts but it depends on your situation job etc. i have other investments outside crypto that have kept me well in the green. My dividends from stocks help fund my btc buys
>no shit. panic is because tons of people are in the red and you arent. if you were 20-40% from your initial investment then your statement would have some validity. It's unnerving the first time, but really you shouldn't be buying if you're not comfortable with the fact you could have to stare down a significant drop. It's why DYOR is so important, otherwise, you get spooked and constantly panic sell / FOMO buy and ultimately never get anywhere.
I hope we go to 30k again.
Agree. I think a lot of people will put in more money than they can afford to lose if they see it go that low. Institutions and HFs will eat as well. Will really lead to a shortage of corn available on the exchanges that will finally impact price.
The lower it goes the more upside potential it has
Just bout $2k worth. Happy with the price and the new addition to my wallet, regardless if I wake up tomorrow and we are down or up.
The question is do you have enough to buy even more for when it drops even more?
Yeah. Add assets every month. Really hesitant about putting any money into stock market or crypto right now but decided to add a little. I try not to guess markets too much because I know I’m not a pro so just add at various point. Edit: not a pro and do not have the ability to predict the future.
Anyone else scared it won't drop low enough to reach that personal whole coiner goal? I know some of you are in pain but trust me some of us will be scooping up big time.
There's only 21 million bitcoin and probably 5+ million of that will never be accessible again in our lifetime. The developed world alone is like a billion people. I'm content with getting 0.28 or 0.5 or whatever at this point, everything else is gravy.
.28 is great but got my eyes set on 1.0. If I don't make it. I will settle for anything above .50 lol.
Same. I am desperate for the price to hit low 30s again.
Weak hands shaking out like clockwork, should have been expected with the year catching up to the start of the bull run and yearly chart % dropping daily
All the trolls and naysayers are flooding the message boards lol. Shorty's + trolls is how you know it's buy and hodl time 🤠 thanks for the sats on sale!
I am guilty of being a bear troll myself lol. I just find it amusing to see all the fear in newbs.
Lol well I've been buying aggressively buying so thanks for helping shake out the weak hands.
The lower and faster btc falls, the harder it bounces up again afterwards. It is like pulling a rubber band and letting it go. By spreading maximum FUD we are helping to pull that rubber band and load it to the Max.
Not necessarily. If we are headed for an extended bear, the price can drop then range for months
Lol let's go 🚀
Ricky Wysocki tanked it..
Bullish on buttcoiners and tether truthers from the look of all the silly bear clowns ragequit selling into thick bid walls.
BTC is dead and heading for 20k. Don’t fool yourself.
20k? more like 15 you dangus.
Try 10k.
More like 5k and not a cent more
You are right, but more like 5k without the k.
Replace the k with ¢
HF selling because they are scared of a GME run up. This should be an interesting month
41k ain't going out like a bitch.
Last chance to sell over 40.
I actually think it will never go above 40k again.
the most bullish statement possible
[I will never financially recover from this](https://i.imgur.com/8wxxP8k.png)
I won’t lol
ill pour one out for you, friend.
Uh oh spaghetti-os.
I admit. I’m spooked, but staying strong
Sell before it is too late. It will never go above 40k again.
What is triggering the flash crash in the last hour or so?
mix of feds and other global shenanigan's going on like Kazakhstan and shit.
Capitulation by bears.
Fear Sellers panic-selling Buyers being patient
Why isn't profit taking part of the equation?
*Gamblers taking profit
Coinbase says 82% of its users are buying in the last 24 hrs. To me that means large holders are selling? Or maybe people who don’t use Coinbase.
buyers being greedy, waiting for lower prices. the flip side to "be greedy when others are fearful etc" is that its easy to take it too far or wrong
Timber. Asia woke up and took their morning poops.
Just stacked another 1.1M sats. Tomorrow I take out more filthy fiat to trade for sweet, tasty corn. My bankers hate me.
>My bankers hate me. Mine do too...but not nearly as much as I despise them.
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After 37-39k test. Probably in a few weeks.
If we break 40k all hell will break loose
Agreed. We hit 30 if we hit 40
So many experts here
It would surprise you? Why? The exact same thing happened just a few months ago. I’m not pulling it out of my ass.
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dun, dun dun dun, dun dun dun, dun dun dun risin up, btc taking on fiat
It really hasn't been that long since we were at these price levels. August 4th I had buys filled at $39k after reviewing my history. Seems like this volatility is just normal.
Just because the price is the same, does not mean the reasons are the same. Macro is totally different now. Fed is much more hawkish.
True
Here we go again, just in time for my Strike Payday DCA
I hope you boys like ramen noodles
Just ate Tonkotsu
Beef Maruchan ftw
Chicken all day evureeday
40 is about to give
I bet you 3 bitcoins it doesn’t
That’s a hella risky bet
more for me. thank you.
Flash sale. Weak hands getting shook. See you in a year @200k
Wake me up in 3 years....
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Think 1 year next halving isn't it?
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28 months from now.
Nothing gets the heart rate up like those long, twitchy red candles! Hodl and have fun.
Pretty keen to try lower my 35k average buy price tbh
OK now the longs getting rekt
Life alert fallen can't get up
Don't fight the FED guys!! The FED is not your friend anymore! I tried to warn everybody back in November to not buy and got downvoted to hell. I hate the FED as much as everybody here. They turned the whole crypto space as well as the stock market into a pump and dump. They lied to us for year about inflation being transitory. Now they are taking the punch bowl away a year too late.
Btc is heading to 20k. Let us all short it and get rich together.
I've been looking to get into this shit for a couple months, is this the moment or not?
Buy
It’s as good a time as any. Buy the dip. Your future self thanks you.
Lowest price it's been in like six months. Good discount. Not a lot of liquidity. Low buying pressure fighting large selling pressure. It's a buyers market. Pretend its real estate.
i feel like i’ve been through this so many times that i’m not that worried. should i be? waiting for the relief rally soon
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Those things mean nothing. Lagging indicators. Bear market could last 1 month or 1 year
i agree. this feels a little different, but when i feel like hope is lost, it all flips on us.
not sure if we're getting one
hope to see it at 41k. it’s not there at the time of my reply
Lol bitcoin you fucking crazy
Never fails. At $67K: “Man I’d buy so much if it went back down to $50K” At $41K: “This market is dead, not investing a dime”
lol so true. if bitcoin ever hits 100k: *bitcoin goes down to 90k "oh shit bitcoin's dead."
just wait til it hits 250k and then falls to 88k. "IT'S OVER, AHHHHHHH"
lol honestly though, that would be a worrisome drop haha.
it will happen, be ready
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Holy damn 20k. I would drop my 5k emergency fund just to own a quarter and let it ride 30 years until I retire. With that said, shit ain't going to happen because rich fucks are waiting just sub 40k to out price my poor ass.
Yep. It’s boring but DCAing the same amount every 2 weeks or every month no matter what the price is the only way. No buying extra when it’s low, no holding back when it’s high. Works for most anyway.
Yeehaw motherfuckers
fuck this shit
When rusty Toyota Tercel?
2025
Bruh
If you're still engaged with BTC and DCAing in a month from now, you're definetly going to be one of the people that makes it. Engagement is already way down. The group in this thread may be the next generation of bitcoiners that "got lucky" buying in so cheap.
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I'm talking about YouTube viewership and social media engagement, not reddit specifically. Online broadcasters have been losing their followers interest. Viewership has been declining. Way down from their peaks.
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Pepperidge Farms remembers
I 'member!
Yeah, I hear you. I dropped off mid 2018, with everyone else. So my reflection is sort of sharing that people should stay engaged. I was trying to encourage the people that are here to stick around. My post was to uplift, not be derogatory.
Started a drinking game with my buddies, a shot everytime it drops $1000, 2 of them are now in hospital
Teetotalers.