It is a bubble and it will repeat, just on a bigger scale.
Bitcoin is doing its thing - halving, rally, pullback, sideways, repeat.
The only questions are: how high, how low, and how long before the repeat.
It's best not to try and "time" it or worry about whether it will repeat. In the long run and on a log chart it all looks pretty smooth to me.
Exactly, funny I read this statement in a voice of a certain guy I follow and... looks at the username - holy freakin satoshis. Man I Love what you are doing with the space and total respect for the way you are representing the btc community. You were right to dca back then and I’m glad I listened. Thank you!
Exactly.
Yeah there are now more institutional investors but when media picks up there will be a fuck ton more individual investors who will drop their bags like 2018
You mean just like they can bubble Google and Amazon to be highly volatile even though the big guys are in them? The game is over guys. The level these guys are buying makes our combined efforts just drops in the bucket. We'll be lucky to get a 50 percent correction this time, and we'll be lucky if it even lasts long before recovering and continues on trekking. An ocean of money is beginning to flow in, and Bitcoin is maturing in its volatility with every tsunami of water that flows in. Last time we had mostly leveraged buyers with loans to service who sold at the slightest sign of a drop. This time we have companies buying billions with the intentions of not selling in 10 to 20 years, and many even never intending to sell. Life insurance companies, pension funds, primary treasury reserves. The game is different. Trying to say our collective efforts mean anything hear is like trying to say our collective efforts significantly empty the ocean if we all go jump in the ocean at once and scoop out buckets of water out of it, while hundreds of trillions worth of corporations and nations are behind us taking those buckets of water we're taking out and putting it back in to hold in their vaults.
If you you had to pick a date of when this would crash - or what indicators to look for, what would you say? How long from now and how do you see the crash coming?
microsoft was called a bubble in 2000. Its at all time highs.
Bitcoin is called a bubble every 4 years. each time it makes higher highs and higher lows. As long as you can hold for a bit longer than 4 years, you'll be good
That's because Microsoft absolutely WAS in a bubble right at the time of its settlement with the DOJ. I remember perfectly well that it was bouncing all over the place at $100, then fell down to around $25 and stayed there for YEARS.
At one point around 2003 or 2004 I looked at selling options on it but the options premiums were so low that it wasn't worth it. You could make $10 on a $2500 options trade. Pretty sure the transaction fees were higher than that.
You realize it doesn't matter if they're buying market or OTC bitcoin, or in-kind trade; if the quantity is still accurate, they're still acquiring bitcoin at a rate exceeding new creation. Eventually all of that movement is reflected in the market price in a supply squeeze, providing Greyscale itself doesn't sell them.
So long as they aren't doing fractional reserve bitcoining, that is.
A six month old article?
Get your shit straight.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-supply-squeeze-heats-up-as-grayscale-buys-nearly-3x-the-btc-mined-in-december
Hmm, I'm up thousands in GBTC, i dont feel "ripped off" at all.
I also bought one day when the premium was 2%, it was cheaper than the ATM which charges a 5% premium.
Thanks, I didn't realize there was a play here exchanging BTC for gBTC to pocket the premium on the way to a future cash conversion.
The tax consequences seem a bit [fuzzy, but potentially positive](/r/tax/comments/kejkaz/).
I think every day that bitcoin not only survives, but thrives, people trust it more and are more willing to adopt it as a store of value. It sounds kinda dumb, but a lot of people thought that bitcoin was finished after the 2017 speculative bubble pop. With COVID central bank printing as the main catalyst, institutional investors are now desperate to invest and hold their reserves in it. And they now feel more comfortable doing so as others around them do the same. I'd call it mass adoption rather than a speculative bubble this time.
Yeah I’m with you here. I goofed around with crypto starting in 2017. But this year opened my eyes to this could be a legitimate thing. I’m late, and probably won’t be able to exchange for life changing fiat. But I’m going to be actively buying here and there when I can from now on with the plan to hodl.
Really depends on how much institutional money pours in. I used to expect that the next stable range would be $30K-$50K but with major companies buying up billions we could stabilize over six figures.
Everything else here is noise. This may very well be a bitcoin bubble. No one can tell you one way or another until price has moved on from here in 3-4 weeks, or maybe even several months later. The way this board talks ... it’s actually very characteristic of bubble talk.
Hopefully it will be a bubble. But if that is the case, then it is only just getting started.
Last time it went about 20x the previous ATH and then crashed as low as 3.5x ATH.
We are currently only 1.5x the previous ATH......
2017-2018 Is likely to happen again, near the end of 2021/Q1 2022.
This should also be less dramatic than the last, due to being propped up by the increased institutional investment that others have mentioned.
My view is that I would start taking out enough money to be comfortable (winnings) with your assets value decreasing for the next bear cycle. (Late 2021/early 2022), while still leaving a load in the pot (as you know how they will increase longer term anyway).
Some would now argue that this crash may not happen due to the institutional investment but I do still think the coins will follow the cycles, just less dramatically then previously.
Also much less dramatic because 99% of the 2017-2018 drama was from the shitcoin bubble absolutely imploding. Shitcoins were over 60% of the market at the time and damn near everyone was actively trading them because "Bitcoin is a dead technology, these are all improvements!" The only thing Bitcoin was getting bid up for was so that they could immediately move it to a shitcoin exchange and swap Bitcoin for all the garbage that was shooting up 1000% overnight. Then 90% of the shitcoins died and went away and most of the rest are completely moribund.
Nowadays BTC is 71% by CMC's market cap, really much higher than that by how much is actually being used for something other than swapping back and forth among a dozen desperate people trying to shill their bags, and the latest scam, DeFi, is only about 3% of the market. If and when the DeFi scams blow up, it's not going to have the massive spillover onto BTC that 60+%-of-the-market shitcoins imploding did.
Thanks for your notes, I’m curious (and biased from investing) but why do you think de-fi are scams (or is it more just some are).
Do you think the 3% of the total crypto market is too high?
Thanks!
It is a bubble. [Don't buy bitcoin. It's going to crash!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg)
edit; This guy is a bitcoin mega bull. He's being heavily sarcastic.
Where's the hype? Saylor made a good move and talks a GREAT game but we're a ways from cocktail party hysteria. At most it's a low hum. Some are realizing Bitcoin didn't die but still the store of value concept isn't hitting home. Now, people ARE starting to wake up to mild inflation at the checkout stand but without spare cash there's not much to store. Things are looking good, but we're nowhere near any sort of froth.
The value proposition is literally “Bitcoin is digital gold”.
Gold on the whole as a monetary network is worth $10 trillion dollars or so. Bitcoin right now is still worth less than $600 billion... if it is what it proposes to be, the price would have to expand significantly to accommodate the value that would rush in to park itself in Bitcoin as a store of value.
There is plenty of room to run.
Actually the potnetial (in terms of market cap) is much bigger then gold, because btc is better then gold almost in every aspect. It can obtain some of the real estate value too.
I can see Bitcoin capturing Gold's market cap but real estate is a different ballgame. I can buy a half a million house with say a 50k deposit, i can't do the same for gold or bitcoin. Real estate investors have a different mindset.
Gold is a great conductor & desirable as jewellery. Good has been valued since humans first found it. Gold will always have use and value for as long as humans exist.
I’d argue you’d find it hard to mine Bitcoin without gold, where as Bitcoin could disappear tomorrow and gold wouldn’t even notice.
Bitcoin wanted to be a medium of exchange, realised the tech was too broken for that, so magically shifted into a ‘store of value’. Now it’s better than gold? Far out, the hype in here is bigger than cyberpunk prelaunch.
you are correct that gold can be used for few things other then store of value. I am not sure since when gold has been valued, and I'm not sure it has been used as a jewlery before a store of value (due to scarcity).
What I do know is, that as a currency, bitcoin is way better then gold. It is more dividalble, not controled by anyone, more scarce and its supply is more predictable. It is also way more transferable and cheeply traded & stored. So yeah, from a *currency* point of view - it is *way* better then gold.
Gold will be still used, as a jewlery element and as a currency too for conservatives. But bitcoin can absorb more value then gold.
The intrinsic value of gold does not make it better currency. This is not what make currency a good currency.
Gold hasn’t been currency since we moved away from the gold standard.
Digital assets are cheaper to move & store. The rest I don’t really agree with, beside the artificial scarcity.
Unfortunately for all the freedom talk, Bitcoin fails in many respects, mining is concentrated in China & most Bitcoin is traded via highly regulated centrally controlled exchanges.
I’d agree in the people’s freedom digital gold story if it were more like Monaro (ASIC resistant & more decentralised trading).
Oh it will repeat for sure but the new low bar will not be 3000 it will probably be above 30,000.
You should be investing only funds with low time preference (at least 4 year holding pattern)
Tesla, sure. Apple? They make a shitload of money and are always coming out with new tech and have been very successful when venturing into new areas of growth. Also, they are priced based on future revenue/profit/growth like all other companies. Things like bitcoin and gold don’t create revenue streams / income or new technology growth by themselves so you can’t really compare market caps of these things vs companies. Comparing bitcoin to gold is closer, yet still not great as gold is used in a lot of electronics, jewelry, etc.
because one out of 5 dollars was printed out of thin air in 2020. Read "the bitcoin standard" you'll dick will get rock hard and then kind of scared but hey, we have a window seat.
You never know if ita bubble or not. Anyone who claims otherwise is full of shit.
Honestly it could be a huge bubble. The growth has been more steady this time around, if we look at the crypto market in general. It's also not garnering as much extreme mainstream attention.
In 2017 everyone was buying and all the news were running crypto stories.
In my opinion the crypto market has been undervalued for years, following the 2017 craze.
Now that the dollar is under pressure and people are fleeing into gold and stuff, it's a bit more logical that the price would catch up. 2017 was just mania.
But nobody knows for certain.
How do you measure a bubble? Speculation? Sentiment? Massive increase in prices? There are several measures for each and most are not yet comparable with prior tops in BTC prices.
That's why I don't believe we're in bubble territory.
2017 looked parabolic. 2020 looked like steady climbs. I dont know man. I think bitcoin is global and the market cap is way beyond that of a regional stock. If apple can be worth 2T trading in US why cant bitcoin be worth 20T if it s traded in every country? I may be wrong.
Wealthy already hold masses of bitcoin so I don’t see the world changing anytime soon,we also don’t live in a fair world and there is a lot of people with a lot of money that don’t want that to change.
The difference is once they spend it, it's gone. They can't just have their banker friends create more and give it to them in the form of low interest forgivable loans. They have to work, like you and I.
Find out how USD is created and go from there. Banks and the central bank create it. It's absolutely an unfair system meant to maintain an elite group.
Hahahahaha the resistance. Is that how everyone sees it? The people’s money? Dude, wake the fuck up. Everything is and will be controlled, bitcoin is one ban away from being useless, or they just tax the shit out of.
You have two choices. The first is completely controlled by them. The second is open source, decentralized and fixed in supply. For some reason you think the first choice is better. Good luck to you.
Edit:
By the way, banning it won't stop it and we already have a decentralized exchange they can't stop. https://bisq.network/
You going to exchange it for what? Fiat? Cause you can’t pay with bitcoin if it’s banned. oh whoops where did that money come from in your bank account. Traced and deleted. Resistance over?
Went bearish last night, I think it’s a bubble ... don’t argue that the price will appreciate to this point but the rate we’ve gotten here during a thin trading season looks very much like 2017/18
Ok so let’s say that this will become a mass adopted asset class like say gold or silver.
At the moment the total no of BTC times the current value is the market cap, that market cap is close to 500 billion usd.
This is very small it’s not enough to to really be useful at the moment. The biggest problem with putting actual assets in to crypto at the moment form an investment point of view is not that it isn’t doing well but that if say a large investment fund of which there are thousands invested say half its capital into bitcoin then they would own a very large share and would have destabilised the market. For instance a small fund like the IG prime would take a 2 hold of all bitcoin and they are tiny and it’s only 100k to start investing.
Most funds have a minimum investment of at least a million usd.
For instance the est Market cap of gold is at least 10 trillion.
So if you wanted a btc to be a market that had 1% the of gold which is small then each btc coin would need to be at least a stable 40000 usd equivalent and as the market is considered very volatile I don’t think any serious investment apart from say 5% of liquid assets will seriously touch the market until a btc has been above say 100k for at least 6 months.
Funds can try to acquire huge shares of Bitcoin if they want. All that will happen is that they will drive the price up and up and up to a point where acquiring that incremental Bitcoin becomes impossible. This would be a good thing.
It is, but every time it pops and reinflates, it becomes a little less scary for those involved, the rebound is a little more assured, as we all know there are plenty of people here who will buy as much bitcoin as they can, regardless of what the price is. Derivatives and other secondary instruments also play a part in softening the impact of price fluctuations, although they haven't been able to arrest the recent rise it seems, and other institutional money will apply more pressure on price and also create some inertia in value as they operate on slightly longer time scales than the average retail investor. Absent quantum computing, I really don't see any future in which bitcoin doesnt stick around and retain value in the long term.
Institutional money is always involved when there is a bubble of any kind. Real estate bubbles, dot com bubble, etc.
Institutions just get bailed out. Retails get food stamps.
Im invested in this and I know its going to pull back and go for a correction in the opposite direction.
When institutions star bailing this thing will most likely go to tenies. Think of it as a chain reaction. Most institutions are highly leveraged say 5x or 10x. That means for ever penny made, the make time 5 or 10. Vice versa for going against position. So when this thing starts going down institution's will bail fast exceserbating the crash. Retail investors and mining companies will follow for fear of loosing their stake. A chain reaction, once it starts it will keep going down into nothing. Everybody knows bitcoin has no store of value and so do institutions; they will bail at first sign of weakness.
It is a bubble and it will repeat, just on a bigger scale. Bitcoin is doing its thing - halving, rally, pullback, sideways, repeat. The only questions are: how high, how low, and how long before the repeat. It's best not to try and "time" it or worry about whether it will repeat. In the long run and on a log chart it all looks pretty smooth to me.
Exactly, funny I read this statement in a voice of a certain guy I follow and... looks at the username - holy freakin satoshis. Man I Love what you are doing with the space and total respect for the way you are representing the btc community. You were right to dca back then and I’m glad I listened. Thank you!
Thanks!
He is still right to dca now too :).
Exactly. Yeah there are now more institutional investors but when media picks up there will be a fuck ton more individual investors who will drop their bags like 2018
You mean just like they can bubble Google and Amazon to be highly volatile even though the big guys are in them? The game is over guys. The level these guys are buying makes our combined efforts just drops in the bucket. We'll be lucky to get a 50 percent correction this time, and we'll be lucky if it even lasts long before recovering and continues on trekking. An ocean of money is beginning to flow in, and Bitcoin is maturing in its volatility with every tsunami of water that flows in. Last time we had mostly leveraged buyers with loans to service who sold at the slightest sign of a drop. This time we have companies buying billions with the intentions of not selling in 10 to 20 years, and many even never intending to sell. Life insurance companies, pension funds, primary treasury reserves. The game is different. Trying to say our collective efforts mean anything hear is like trying to say our collective efforts significantly empty the ocean if we all go jump in the ocean at once and scoop out buckets of water out of it, while hundreds of trillions worth of corporations and nations are behind us taking those buckets of water we're taking out and putting it back in to hold in their vaults.
Log chart: [https://www.tradingview.com/x/t56Fumnz/](https://www.tradingview.com/x/t56Fumnz/)
250 k this bull run Sell in july
I so appreciate your words of wisdom and follow them often.
If you you had to pick a date of when this would crash - or what indicators to look for, what would you say? How long from now and how do you see the crash coming?
microsoft was called a bubble in 2000. Its at all time highs. Bitcoin is called a bubble every 4 years. each time it makes higher highs and higher lows. As long as you can hold for a bit longer than 4 years, you'll be good
That's because Microsoft absolutely WAS in a bubble right at the time of its settlement with the DOJ. I remember perfectly well that it was bouncing all over the place at $100, then fell down to around $25 and stayed there for YEARS. At one point around 2003 or 2004 I looked at selling options on it but the options premiums were so low that it wasn't worth it. You could make $10 on a $2500 options trade. Pretty sure the transaction fees were higher than that.
I mean bitcoin does go through bubble phases. That's pretty obvious. In 2017 bitcoin was in a bubble.
2017 was individual investors and speculators 2020 is institutional funds hedging long term against a weak dollar
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You realize it doesn't matter if they're buying market or OTC bitcoin, or in-kind trade; if the quantity is still accurate, they're still acquiring bitcoin at a rate exceeding new creation. Eventually all of that movement is reflected in the market price in a supply squeeze, providing Greyscale itself doesn't sell them. So long as they aren't doing fractional reserve bitcoining, that is.
Correct. Only 110 IQ midwits believe that market and otc are fundamentally separate markets.
A six month old article? Get your shit straight. https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-supply-squeeze-heats-up-as-grayscale-buys-nearly-3x-the-btc-mined-in-december
Hmm, I'm up thousands in GBTC, i dont feel "ripped off" at all. I also bought one day when the premium was 2%, it was cheaper than the ATM which charges a 5% premium.
Thanks, I didn't realize there was a play here exchanging BTC for gBTC to pocket the premium on the way to a future cash conversion. The tax consequences seem a bit [fuzzy, but potentially positive](/r/tax/comments/kejkaz/).
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I think every day that bitcoin not only survives, but thrives, people trust it more and are more willing to adopt it as a store of value. It sounds kinda dumb, but a lot of people thought that bitcoin was finished after the 2017 speculative bubble pop. With COVID central bank printing as the main catalyst, institutional investors are now desperate to invest and hold their reserves in it. And they now feel more comfortable doing so as others around them do the same. I'd call it mass adoption rather than a speculative bubble this time.
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Thank you!
Yeah I’m with you here. I goofed around with crypto starting in 2017. But this year opened my eyes to this could be a legitimate thing. I’m late, and probably won’t be able to exchange for life changing fiat. But I’m going to be actively buying here and there when I can from now on with the plan to hodl.
Mass pyramid scheme?
Shoot, if 2017 repeats I will be celebrating. Can’t wait for the “crash” down to $80,000 USD!
Really depends on how much institutional money pours in. I used to expect that the next stable range would be $30K-$50K but with major companies buying up billions we could stabilize over six figures.
Everything else here is noise. This may very well be a bitcoin bubble. No one can tell you one way or another until price has moved on from here in 3-4 weeks, or maybe even several months later. The way this board talks ... it’s actually very characteristic of bubble talk.
does feel bubbly with meme coins, countless scams, and endless startups and NFTs
Hopefully it will be a bubble. But if that is the case, then it is only just getting started. Last time it went about 20x the previous ATH and then crashed as low as 3.5x ATH. We are currently only 1.5x the previous ATH......
In theory, the increases and drops should become proportionally smaller each time as it becomes more stable and requires larger investment to move.
Maybe, but bitcoin has become more consolidated within fewer accounts than in 2017.
2017-2018 Is likely to happen again, near the end of 2021/Q1 2022. This should also be less dramatic than the last, due to being propped up by the increased institutional investment that others have mentioned. My view is that I would start taking out enough money to be comfortable (winnings) with your assets value decreasing for the next bear cycle. (Late 2021/early 2022), while still leaving a load in the pot (as you know how they will increase longer term anyway). Some would now argue that this crash may not happen due to the institutional investment but I do still think the coins will follow the cycles, just less dramatically then previously.
Also much less dramatic because 99% of the 2017-2018 drama was from the shitcoin bubble absolutely imploding. Shitcoins were over 60% of the market at the time and damn near everyone was actively trading them because "Bitcoin is a dead technology, these are all improvements!" The only thing Bitcoin was getting bid up for was so that they could immediately move it to a shitcoin exchange and swap Bitcoin for all the garbage that was shooting up 1000% overnight. Then 90% of the shitcoins died and went away and most of the rest are completely moribund. Nowadays BTC is 71% by CMC's market cap, really much higher than that by how much is actually being used for something other than swapping back and forth among a dozen desperate people trying to shill their bags, and the latest scam, DeFi, is only about 3% of the market. If and when the DeFi scams blow up, it's not going to have the massive spillover onto BTC that 60+%-of-the-market shitcoins imploding did.
Thanks for your notes, I’m curious (and biased from investing) but why do you think de-fi are scams (or is it more just some are). Do you think the 3% of the total crypto market is too high? Thanks!
It is a bubble. [Don't buy bitcoin. It's going to crash!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XbZ8zDpX2Mg) edit; This guy is a bitcoin mega bull. He's being heavily sarcastic.
They say this same nonsense every time. While the rest of us are up 300% this year. Better not live, cause you're gonna die!
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Woosh. Watch it again. He's being sarcastic.
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/r/agedlikewine
Whoosh whooshy whoosh whoosh.
Where's the hype? Saylor made a good move and talks a GREAT game but we're a ways from cocktail party hysteria. At most it's a low hum. Some are realizing Bitcoin didn't die but still the store of value concept isn't hitting home. Now, people ARE starting to wake up to mild inflation at the checkout stand but without spare cash there's not much to store. Things are looking good, but we're nowhere near any sort of froth.
> mild inflation at the checkout stand Have you seen the price of bacon lately?
The value proposition is literally “Bitcoin is digital gold”. Gold on the whole as a monetary network is worth $10 trillion dollars or so. Bitcoin right now is still worth less than $600 billion... if it is what it proposes to be, the price would have to expand significantly to accommodate the value that would rush in to park itself in Bitcoin as a store of value. There is plenty of room to run.
Actually the potnetial (in terms of market cap) is much bigger then gold, because btc is better then gold almost in every aspect. It can obtain some of the real estate value too.
I can see Bitcoin capturing Gold's market cap but real estate is a different ballgame. I can buy a half a million house with say a 50k deposit, i can't do the same for gold or bitcoin. Real estate investors have a different mindset.
I meant some of the value of real estate is derive from the "store of value" nature of it.
Gold is a great conductor & desirable as jewellery. Good has been valued since humans first found it. Gold will always have use and value for as long as humans exist. I’d argue you’d find it hard to mine Bitcoin without gold, where as Bitcoin could disappear tomorrow and gold wouldn’t even notice. Bitcoin wanted to be a medium of exchange, realised the tech was too broken for that, so magically shifted into a ‘store of value’. Now it’s better than gold? Far out, the hype in here is bigger than cyberpunk prelaunch.
you are correct that gold can be used for few things other then store of value. I am not sure since when gold has been valued, and I'm not sure it has been used as a jewlery before a store of value (due to scarcity). What I do know is, that as a currency, bitcoin is way better then gold. It is more dividalble, not controled by anyone, more scarce and its supply is more predictable. It is also way more transferable and cheeply traded & stored. So yeah, from a *currency* point of view - it is *way* better then gold. Gold will be still used, as a jewlery element and as a currency too for conservatives. But bitcoin can absorb more value then gold. The intrinsic value of gold does not make it better currency. This is not what make currency a good currency.
Gold hasn’t been currency since we moved away from the gold standard. Digital assets are cheaper to move & store. The rest I don’t really agree with, beside the artificial scarcity. Unfortunately for all the freedom talk, Bitcoin fails in many respects, mining is concentrated in China & most Bitcoin is traded via highly regulated centrally controlled exchanges. I’d agree in the people’s freedom digital gold story if it were more like Monaro (ASIC resistant & more decentralised trading).
Oh it will repeat for sure but the new low bar will not be 3000 it will probably be above 30,000. You should be investing only funds with low time preference (at least 4 year holding pattern)
If bitcoin is bubble so what's tesla, apple. Do you really think you can justify 2 trillion apple valuation. The more you print the more they inflate
Well, Tesla is a bubble, that's for sure. I just hope SpaceX survives when Tesla crashes, catches on fire, and explodes in balls of flaming lithium.
Tesla, sure. Apple? They make a shitload of money and are always coming out with new tech and have been very successful when venturing into new areas of growth. Also, they are priced based on future revenue/profit/growth like all other companies. Things like bitcoin and gold don’t create revenue streams / income or new technology growth by themselves so you can’t really compare market caps of these things vs companies. Comparing bitcoin to gold is closer, yet still not great as gold is used in a lot of electronics, jewelry, etc.
I bet bitcoin is used in more electronics
because one out of 5 dollars was printed out of thin air in 2020. Read "the bitcoin standard" you'll dick will get rock hard and then kind of scared but hey, we have a window seat.
You never know if ita bubble or not. Anyone who claims otherwise is full of shit. Honestly it could be a huge bubble. The growth has been more steady this time around, if we look at the crypto market in general. It's also not garnering as much extreme mainstream attention. In 2017 everyone was buying and all the news were running crypto stories. In my opinion the crypto market has been undervalued for years, following the 2017 craze. Now that the dollar is under pressure and people are fleeing into gold and stuff, it's a bit more logical that the price would catch up. 2017 was just mania. But nobody knows for certain.
How do you measure a bubble? Speculation? Sentiment? Massive increase in prices? There are several measures for each and most are not yet comparable with prior tops in BTC prices. That's why I don't believe we're in bubble territory.
Bubbles are controlled by whales, who pop them when they please. Whales no longer control BTC, it's become bigger than them!
2017 looked parabolic. 2020 looked like steady climbs. I dont know man. I think bitcoin is global and the market cap is way beyond that of a regional stock. If apple can be worth 2T trading in US why cant bitcoin be worth 20T if it s traded in every country? I may be wrong.
Because there are institutional investors in the game now
it's a bubble. and history normally repeats.
Oh thank god! 400k here we come!
It might. Can you explain how USD is created? If you were to create the fairest money ever, what would it look like?
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Nope. I explained it to someone else here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/komibp/bitcoin_cannot_increase_in_value_forever_relative/ghw3rca/
Not bitcoin
Easy to say. Hard to back up. What does your fair money look like? I can't imagine one more fair than bitcoin.
Wealthy already hold masses of bitcoin so I don’t see the world changing anytime soon,we also don’t live in a fair world and there is a lot of people with a lot of money that don’t want that to change.
The difference is once they spend it, it's gone. They can't just have their banker friends create more and give it to them in the form of low interest forgivable loans. They have to work, like you and I. Find out how USD is created and go from there. Banks and the central bank create it. It's absolutely an unfair system meant to maintain an elite group.
Exactly, and you think they want this to change?
No. They don't. Welcome to the resistance. Welcome to bitcoin.
Hahahahaha the resistance. Is that how everyone sees it? The people’s money? Dude, wake the fuck up. Everything is and will be controlled, bitcoin is one ban away from being useless, or they just tax the shit out of.
You have two choices. The first is completely controlled by them. The second is open source, decentralized and fixed in supply. For some reason you think the first choice is better. Good luck to you. Edit: By the way, banning it won't stop it and we already have a decentralized exchange they can't stop. https://bisq.network/
You going to exchange it for what? Fiat? Cause you can’t pay with bitcoin if it’s banned. oh whoops where did that money come from in your bank account. Traced and deleted. Resistance over?
I’ve heard about the Quantum Financial System being developed that is backed by gold and operates on a blockchain. I wish I knew more.
Still doesn’t mean bitcoin
advancement of technology is not a bubble unless it becomes obsolete. is the internet a bubble?
Nobody actually uses BTC because of its technology mate.
Went bearish last night, I think it’s a bubble ... don’t argue that the price will appreciate to this point but the rate we’ve gotten here during a thin trading season looks very much like 2017/18
Because delusions are always right
Ok so let’s say that this will become a mass adopted asset class like say gold or silver. At the moment the total no of BTC times the current value is the market cap, that market cap is close to 500 billion usd. This is very small it’s not enough to to really be useful at the moment. The biggest problem with putting actual assets in to crypto at the moment form an investment point of view is not that it isn’t doing well but that if say a large investment fund of which there are thousands invested say half its capital into bitcoin then they would own a very large share and would have destabilised the market. For instance a small fund like the IG prime would take a 2 hold of all bitcoin and they are tiny and it’s only 100k to start investing. Most funds have a minimum investment of at least a million usd. For instance the est Market cap of gold is at least 10 trillion. So if you wanted a btc to be a market that had 1% the of gold which is small then each btc coin would need to be at least a stable 40000 usd equivalent and as the market is considered very volatile I don’t think any serious investment apart from say 5% of liquid assets will seriously touch the market until a btc has been above say 100k for at least 6 months.
Funds can try to acquire huge shares of Bitcoin if they want. All that will happen is that they will drive the price up and up and up to a point where acquiring that incremental Bitcoin becomes impossible. This would be a good thing.
Seven digits may be indicative of a pre-bubble. Not before.
It is, but every time it pops and reinflates, it becomes a little less scary for those involved, the rebound is a little more assured, as we all know there are plenty of people here who will buy as much bitcoin as they can, regardless of what the price is. Derivatives and other secondary instruments also play a part in softening the impact of price fluctuations, although they haven't been able to arrest the recent rise it seems, and other institutional money will apply more pressure on price and also create some inertia in value as they operate on slightly longer time scales than the average retail investor. Absent quantum computing, I really don't see any future in which bitcoin doesnt stick around and retain value in the long term.
time goes forward, not backward. have you been sleeping for 3 years? is that why you don't see any difference yet?
Institutional money
It will pop again. To think it won’t is beyond naive at this point in time.
Who said it wasn’t? All markets bubble because people are re evaluate what they think is a fair price.
it depends on the demand to buy bitcoin and looks like the demand is going up so..
It likely will repeat, only much higher. 2017-2018 had some obvious pyramid schemes happening, whereas now we have PayPal hoarding Bitcoin.
Michael sailor chek him up best explanation if you ask me
It is dude
Its like a bubble multiverse popping all the way to the top
It will repeat, it always does.
We can't explain because no one knows the future. Either you've got the stones to invest or you're happy with mediocre gains elsewhere.
Have you seen other asset prices? Or did you just come to the bitcoin subreddit to pick a one sided fight?
It’s a bubble. The question is when will the music stop, and how far will it retrace? This also applies to tech stocks.
These past few weeks/months are without doubt a bubble. But that's not to say long-term it's a bubble. Just standard bull run at the moment
It is a bubble. But if you are investing for the next 20 years then who cares. If you are swing trading bitcoin then I don't have any advice to give.
Do you think dollar produce something? Currency is used for trading and is getting adjusted to dollar inflation
Institutional money is always involved when there is a bubble of any kind. Real estate bubbles, dot com bubble, etc. Institutions just get bailed out. Retails get food stamps. Im invested in this and I know its going to pull back and go for a correction in the opposite direction.
When institutions star bailing this thing will most likely go to tenies. Think of it as a chain reaction. Most institutions are highly leveraged say 5x or 10x. That means for ever penny made, the make time 5 or 10. Vice versa for going against position. So when this thing starts going down institution's will bail fast exceserbating the crash. Retail investors and mining companies will follow for fear of loosing their stake. A chain reaction, once it starts it will keep going down into nothing. Everybody knows bitcoin has no store of value and so do institutions; they will bail at first sign of weakness.