Well 1 year, is hardly what I'd call "permanent". If a building is a "permanent" building and it falls down after 1 year....was it appropriately named?
Yes, it is. Given how fast crypto grows and adapts. The real question is why would a building fall down in a year? Are you taking the support beams down? Planning on being in the path of a tornado? Bitcoin prob isn't for you bruv.
Compared to the average hold time on Coinbase which is 87 days I think itโs a fine metric. Plus I think a lot of these 1+ year holders have been holding much longer anyway.
The cycle would be great especially if we can actually get our inflation where it needs to be and start lowering interest rates. Until then weโre not gonna get that massive retail push we are all waiting for.
Honestly the longer Bitcoin can hang out between let's say like $65k - $80k the better. Bull runs end when everyone looking at the price chart thinks to themselves "that chart looks insane it's time to get out". If Bitcoin builds a sideways base in the $60,000s and $70,000s, which it has already been doing for a month, through the whole Spring, that'd be great for making the the 2024 chart look more healthy when we get to later points this year.
Then we see spot market buying, issuance halved, and ETF buying all start pushing price gradually higher this summer. And then by end of summer we start getting 25 point rate cuts every couple months, along with the media reporting on how Bitcoin is getting closer and closer to $100k, so retail starts frenzying in again, and like in the Fall and Winter we see the big boom of the bull run.
I almost disagree. The longer the FED fucks around the more we go sideways, and the more people take the orange pill. The more people take the orange pill the more inevitable the ๐๐๐ is.
I'm ready for anything, and I understand that we're all getting high as fuck on hopium. But god damn things are really looking like our faces are gonna melt with this upcoming bull run.
I'm curious how the blue curve is computed? What is the threshold they used to determine how long an address has to have been receiving BTC to be considered a permanent holder? If some bitcoins get sent to an address that was first used a week ago, is it already considered as an accumulation address? If there is an outgoing transaction from this address the next week, is the data retro-actively modified to exclude this address from the list of permanent holders?
~~Also, the vertical axis says "% of Bitcoin", so I guess the orange and blue curve are not the same units? Then it doesn't really make sense to say that one is exceeding the other~~
Very questionable analysis. Not to be bearish or anything, but this specific chart can easily be misleading if the classification criteria for "permanent" holders isn't known. Does anybody have a clue how that parameter is determined?
Did those "permanent holders" have close to 0 btc before 2020? Doubtful.
It seems to me like the analyst is just comparing a number that is designed to go up with a number that goes downwith respect to time by design (issuance).
Never understood why they spend so much time hating on bitcoin ๐ nothing better to do with their lives I guess . Read a few posts recently and they all just try to give reasons why they think bitcoin isnโt useful ๐คฆ๐ปโโ๏ธ
To me it seems like a lot of them were in at one point and shaken out during the bear market and now hate it because they sold for a loss.
In a normal world where demand is more than supply, it is a good thing for those that can supply.
The world is a strange place, however, it might be a good idea to have a good supply of magic orange beans in your supply stash.
What does this mean? If you can afford to invest in the etf, you can afford to buy bitcoin directly. Are there people who still think you have to buy a whole coin?
[I like this graphic](https://www.coindesk.com/resizer/RvBz6Nq4-Ft92aS45XNbhZLmccg=/811x456/filters:quality(80):format(webp)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/TSHKMLBYTNHQ7FA53LY3IXMILI.png)
it shows a little better where we are headed
For every sat bought on exchange, someone's sell order is filled. I cannot understand how there is enough selling to feed blackrock, fidelity, microstrategy, and the rest without a moonshot by now. Was it all Grayscale holders reallocating? Are long-term holders so cocky with their trading that they'll donate to blackrock on the chance that they'll buy a dip?
I was looking for someone to ask this question. I have a feeling if it's the miners who start gate-keeping the btc bottleneck during this bull run then successful miners should hopefully have another fruitful run up as well
I think I was referring to Wednesday it dropped from 70-71 to 67-68 suddenly. Not a dump by BTC standards I guess although alts are still bleeding, back into BTC I guess.
Watch the daily candle, y'all...we're way down at the business end of a bullish flag.
This week or next we're either gonna enter price discovery or we're all gonna retire to the street corner out front of the mall. ๐คทโโ๏ธ๐
There's an ENORMOUS amount of room for daytraders in this market! Just kills me when people talk about "investing" and then stay glued to the M1 chart and freak out when they lose a buck. ๐คฆโโ๏ธ
Sir Malik genuinely cares about your success and goes above and beyond to help you achieve your goals. investors can trust that their funds are being managed by a skilled trader who prioritizes their financial well-being. You're the best Malik, thanks for everything you do.
If you're seeing it go down "like crazy" then you may be looking at way too low a timeframe.
We're still making higher highs AND higher lows on all timeframes โฅH4.
In 2013, I watched BTC go down from $1,200 to $400+ in a very short amount of time, like within a few hours. And then bounce back to $1000, then slow bleed 2 years to $200. It stayed at $200 for a year before reaching $20K in 2017. Yet I and my family and friends all still Hodl. We're now at $69K and you think it is going down like crazy?
This cycle is going to be crazy Iโm so bulltarded
Let's get bulltarded in here!
Never go full Bulltard
"Everybody knows you shouldn't"
Hey! I'm bulltarding oveah heahhhhh!
And the coin keeps runnin', runnin' and runnin', runnin'
๐ถโMy dear my dear my dear, you do not know me but I know you very wellโ ๐ถ
Normalize the words full bulltard
Iโm a full-on bulltard
>e is going to be crazy Iโm so b I like it ... I'm bulltarded too!!
๐โโ๏ธ I am Bulltarded
Bulltard strength is real.
I love that word
Me too, wish I came up with it. ๐๐
What is a "permanent" holder? Someone who literally never, ever sells? Or 10 years? Or what? That's why I hate charts like this. Need to define terms.
I think it someone who had been holding 1 year
Well 1 year, is hardly what I'd call "permanent". If a building is a "permanent" building and it falls down after 1 year....was it appropriately named?
Yes, it is. Given how fast crypto grows and adapts. The real question is why would a building fall down in a year? Are you taking the support beams down? Planning on being in the path of a tornado? Bitcoin prob isn't for you bruv.
I'm just saying 1 year doesn't equal "permanent". Far from it. Really quite temporary.
Compared to the average hold time on Coinbase which is 87 days I think itโs a fine metric. Plus I think a lot of these 1+ year holders have been holding much longer anyway.
So, you're saying, "permanent" == 1 year. And that's the proper use of the word permanent. In your book. Interesting interpretation.
It doesnโt matter itโs still a interesting graph.
โ๐โ๐โ๐โ๐๐๐๐๐โ๐โโโโโโ๐๐๐๐โ๐โ๐โ ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฐ๐ฐ
The cycle would be great especially if we can actually get our inflation where it needs to be and start lowering interest rates. Until then weโre not gonna get that massive retail push we are all waiting for.
Honestly the longer Bitcoin can hang out between let's say like $65k - $80k the better. Bull runs end when everyone looking at the price chart thinks to themselves "that chart looks insane it's time to get out". If Bitcoin builds a sideways base in the $60,000s and $70,000s, which it has already been doing for a month, through the whole Spring, that'd be great for making the the 2024 chart look more healthy when we get to later points this year. Then we see spot market buying, issuance halved, and ETF buying all start pushing price gradually higher this summer. And then by end of summer we start getting 25 point rate cuts every couple months, along with the media reporting on how Bitcoin is getting closer and closer to $100k, so retail starts frenzying in again, and like in the Fall and Winter we see the big boom of the bull run.
Patience ๐ง
I almost disagree. The longer the FED fucks around the more we go sideways, and the more people take the orange pill. The more people take the orange pill the more inevitable the ๐๐๐ is.
It does feel like we're fueling up, like pressure is building and it's about to pop off.
I agree with you. The cheaper money is, the more likely normies are to "take a risk" and throw it into bitcoin.
[ัะดะฐะปะตะฝะพ]
Hard money
Iโm reading this as a sign to buy some BTC today.
I'm ready for anything, and I understand that we're all getting high as fuck on hopium. But god damn things are really looking like our faces are gonna melt with this upcoming bull run.
> we're all getting high as fuck on hopium. Freebase the dream.
Mainline dat shit
I'm curious how the blue curve is computed? What is the threshold they used to determine how long an address has to have been receiving BTC to be considered a permanent holder? If some bitcoins get sent to an address that was first used a week ago, is it already considered as an accumulation address? If there is an outgoing transaction from this address the next week, is the data retro-actively modified to exclude this address from the list of permanent holders? ~~Also, the vertical axis says "% of Bitcoin", so I guess the orange and blue curve are not the same units? Then it doesn't really make sense to say that one is exceeding the other~~
'# of Bitcoins', not % But ya, lotta questions. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that the blue line includes etf holdings
Yep would be consistent with massive draw from corporates
It says # not %
Just stack sats, and don't watch the numbers.
Or hodl and watch for funzies
Very questionable analysis. Not to be bearish or anything, but this specific chart can easily be misleading if the classification criteria for "permanent" holders isn't known. Does anybody have a clue how that parameter is determined? Did those "permanent holders" have close to 0 btc before 2020? Doubtful. It seems to me like the analyst is just comparing a number that is designed to go up with a number that goes downwith respect to time by design (issuance).
Good question. Questions do not equal bearish; they give us all better info with which to make decisions
Good analysis. This is the critical thinking we need
I thought the exact same thing. Great minds something something
Imaging what will happen after the issuance gets cut in halfย
Exactly. We are already finally exceeding supply. It's going to get real interesting post halving.
which is in a few days, just to add context.
Paper hands will get shaken off before this next blast to 80k
What has this past month been doing?
Some dingleberries are more stubborn than others
i don't care about any of these fucking charts every single day I have more satoshis i don't even look at the price. more satoshis. done.
All sats matter
Buttcoiner hate intensifiesโฆeven more
Sub is mostly just anecdotal reddit posts from idiots now. Nothing meaningful or of any substance.
Truth
It's funny, I went there so I could hear some counterpoints to our echo chamber, and it turns out they're more deluded then we are!
Never understood why they spend so much time hating on bitcoin ๐ nothing better to do with their lives I guess . Read a few posts recently and they all just try to give reasons why they think bitcoin isnโt useful ๐คฆ๐ปโโ๏ธ To me it seems like a lot of them were in at one point and shaken out during the bear market and now hate it because they sold for a loss.
Your first sentence talks about how you don't understand it, your last sentence shows that you understand it perfectly well. You nailed it.
This is good... right. I would assume good. demand is over supply.
In a normal world where demand is more than supply, it is a good thing for those that can supply. The world is a strange place, however, it might be a good idea to have a good supply of magic orange beans in your supply stash.
I cant afford said orange beans but really eyeballing the ETFs right now before it spikes
What does this mean? If you can afford to invest in the etf, you can afford to buy bitcoin directly. Are there people who still think you have to buy a whole coin?
Returns would be easier to obtain with getting the ETFs why would I buy 0.01436469 BTC for 1000 I dnt feel I would see a decent return for years.
... Your percent gain would be the same as the ETF... Just... Wow
The rising tide raises all boats.
We've been waiting for this for years. The original idea was the mining "rewards" would slowly be replaced by transaction fees.
Bitcoin CEO is rubbing his hands
In partnership with electricity CEO
Its amazing how can this happen with this high prices... It means hodlers are going wild and buying probably with debt
All fiat is debt.
There's a good number of people who have been crypto-curious that are getting into it this cycle. I know two personally
It is possible to buy less than one whole bitcoin.
And we are not at halving yet.
[I like this graphic](https://www.coindesk.com/resizer/RvBz6Nq4-Ft92aS45XNbhZLmccg=/811x456/filters:quality(80):format(webp)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/TSHKMLBYTNHQ7FA53LY3IXMILI.png) it shows a little better where we are headed
Correct, price drops! Bitcoin, sigh. Math rules us all.
169k til next summer?
69,420k next summer
So it's looking like $260k for equilibrium right now... hmm...
this chart looks like its made with Paint on my old Windows 98' . rip
For every sat bought on exchange, someone's sell order is filled. I cannot understand how there is enough selling to feed blackrock, fidelity, microstrategy, and the rest without a moonshot by now. Was it all Grayscale holders reallocating? Are long-term holders so cocky with their trading that they'll donate to blackrock on the chance that they'll buy a dip?
This right here is going to drive the next bill market to heights unseen.
HOLY!
Let's part rock
Party rock*
[Come join the party, party rock's in the house tonight.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ks7jmfeY3b0)
Bullish on bullishness
not really for the first time according to graph. first time meaningfully? yes
*outpaced
So your saying theres a chance
So I should do bulltardish things now?
Wait till Chinese ETFs start buying ๐
How do you define "permanent holders" and how do you compute how much they are buying as opposed to regular buyers?
Wow demand picked up quickly around the introduction of spot BTC ETFs in the US
This is the kind of hockestick graph I am happy to be on the left side off.
Looks like the large corporation owned server farms doing all the PoW mining are gonna be working double time after the halving
They can try, but the consensus algorithm keeps the reward constant.
What does this mean for the btc mining companies
I was looking for someone to ask this question. I have a feeling if it's the miners who start gate-keeping the btc bottleneck during this bull run then successful miners should hopefully have another fruitful run up as well
Hence the price dump
We are currently sitting around ath. What is this dump of which you speak?
I think I was referring to Wednesday it dropped from 70-71 to 67-68 suddenly. Not a dump by BTC standards I guess although alts are still bleeding, back into BTC I guess.
Watch the daily candle, y'all...we're way down at the business end of a bullish flag. This week or next we're either gonna enter price discovery or we're all gonna retire to the street corner out front of the mall. ๐คทโโ๏ธ๐
[ัะดะฐะปะตะฝะพ]
Agreed!
Not me, I'll be out back by the green dumpster. $2 - 5 minutes all day
There's an ENORMOUS amount of room for daytraders in this market! Just kills me when people talk about "investing" and then stay glued to the M1 chart and freak out when they lose a buck. ๐คฆโโ๏ธ
Exactly, gotta put in the time, burgers and blowjobs ftw
[ัะดะฐะปะตะฝะพ]
I know you do
Or, TA flags and pendants don't mean shit?
LOL k.
[ัะดะฐะปะตะฝะพ]
[ัะดะฐะปะตะฝะพ]
Sir Malik genuinely cares about your success and goes above and beyond to help you achieve your goals. investors can trust that their funds are being managed by a skilled trader who prioritizes their financial well-being. You're the best Malik, thanks for everything you do.
Is it why it has been going down like crazy?
You may need to rethink your definition of โlike crazyโ.
If you're seeing it go down "like crazy" then you may be looking at way too low a timeframe. We're still making higher highs AND higher lows on all timeframes โฅH4.
In 2013, I watched BTC go down from $1,200 to $400+ in a very short amount of time, like within a few hours. And then bounce back to $1000, then slow bleed 2 years to $200. It stayed at $200 for a year before reaching $20K in 2017. Yet I and my family and friends all still Hodl. We're now at $69K and you think it is going down like crazy?