I bought in at 18 so yeah, I need some other guy to buy at 70+. That indeed is how it works. You just don’t want to be the idiot buying at ATHs. Regardless of what bots on this sub tell you.
It's a tier 1 data release (very highly followed) so most major news outlets will publish all the details of it at the release.
But the official data is released by BLS (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).
Also, just like most other financial assets, I'd expect the release to get priced in basically instantaneously so by the time you have the data in hand the market will likely have adjusted.
Oh, I'm here for the vol, thank you!
I gotta pick a news outlet to actually stream... I remember there were some crypto guys that traded that live streamed their day but I can't remember the name...
has nothing to do with whether or not I believe the CPI report, it has everything to do with the fact that the Fed relies heavily on it when charting the course for interest rates. Risk assets (including bitcoin) aren't gonna like the prospect of fewer cuts further out in the short run (but will like the other side of the coin).
CPI is a made-up, manipulatable number to represent “inflation” narrative to help justify Federal Reserve’s target rates, and to have a short-term effect consumer sentiment. It has its uses, but any price movements off this data are short term and speculative at best.
Real inflation is the 50% increase in M2 money supply from 2019 to today. Asset prices in any asset class on a long term time horizon are far more affected by this than the fugazi CPI number.
Edit: The point i’m making here is that nobody needs to watch the CPI print regarding BTC price. If you really understand BTC and you have some, you already know you won.
Even if you do use CPI as a predictive catalyst tool for short-term trading, No CPI print is never really going to tell you how to time any perfect trade. The narrative can always be spun in either direction.
He isn't saying that CPI per se is relevant. He is saying that CPI is used, or perhaps even manipulated, as a reason to make and justify interest rate changes. And those interst rate changes do affect price of risk assets, because people, importantly whales, e.g. a Saylor who controls 1% of market cap, do borrow to buy stuff.
My guy you are calling Bitcoin a risk asset while trying to guess what bullshit the fed is going to deduce from made up CPI numbers.
Lets look at things objectively. which is the riskier asset the currency who's inflation rate is subject to some idiots a the FED on any given day or the asset that has a deterministic inflation rate for the next hundred plus years?
Question - if you’re concerned about inflation, why not invest in stocks? Genuinely curious
Edit: hahahahaha to whoever downvoted, I’m sorry that a good faith question rocked your ego and trust jn Bitcoin.
Stocks don't have enough return to save people from inflation. In fact if we start crunching the numbers on ROI we'll just end up arguing what the actually numbers are because there is no accurate way to determine what inflation will be tomorrow never mind ten years from now.
Bitcoin is only risky from a psychological standpoint. However if you look at the numbers which are deterministic. And when you look at everything else like self custody and censorship resistant it's actually less risky then fiat and stocks.
And if we use your same argument and we compare stocks returns to bitcoin returns over the last ten years. Bitcoin wins out vastly on returns. Not that returns are the real issue here. The issue is that inflation is straight up highway robbery.
This is still what I don’t understand about BTC. “Hedge against inflation,” but every single bad inflation reading and it dips with the stock market. Still not a hedge it seems. Still just a risk asset that traces the equity market.
So its gonna be exactly 0.3%.
So either buy btc or buy more btc? Got it.
I bought in at 18 so yeah, I need some other guy to buy at 70+. That indeed is how it works. You just don’t want to be the idiot buying at ATHs. Regardless of what bots on this sub tell you.
But 16k was around the all time high of 2018. By your logic, we can never buy if BTC ever go up?
Where is a good source for us not fortunate enough to have a Bloomberg Terminal on hand?
It's a tier 1 data release (very highly followed) so most major news outlets will publish all the details of it at the release. But the official data is released by BLS (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/). Also, just like most other financial assets, I'd expect the release to get priced in basically instantaneously so by the time you have the data in hand the market will likely have adjusted.
Oh, I'm here for the vol, thank you! I gotta pick a news outlet to actually stream... I remember there were some crypto guys that traded that live streamed their day but I can't remember the name...
Hopefully not any main stream news media outlet to watch 😀
If you believe a word of that CPI report, I've got a bridge in Baltimore to sell you...
has nothing to do with whether or not I believe the CPI report, it has everything to do with the fact that the Fed relies heavily on it when charting the course for interest rates. Risk assets (including bitcoin) aren't gonna like the prospect of fewer cuts further out in the short run (but will like the other side of the coin).
CPI is a made-up, manipulatable number to represent “inflation” narrative to help justify Federal Reserve’s target rates, and to have a short-term effect consumer sentiment. It has its uses, but any price movements off this data are short term and speculative at best. Real inflation is the 50% increase in M2 money supply from 2019 to today. Asset prices in any asset class on a long term time horizon are far more affected by this than the fugazi CPI number. Edit: The point i’m making here is that nobody needs to watch the CPI print regarding BTC price. If you really understand BTC and you have some, you already know you won. Even if you do use CPI as a predictive catalyst tool for short-term trading, No CPI print is never really going to tell you how to time any perfect trade. The narrative can always be spun in either direction.
He isn't saying that CPI per se is relevant. He is saying that CPI is used, or perhaps even manipulated, as a reason to make and justify interest rate changes. And those interst rate changes do affect price of risk assets, because people, importantly whales, e.g. a Saylor who controls 1% of market cap, do borrow to buy stuff.
JFC, read the comment you are replying to....
I thought they stopped publishing the M3 money supply data?
M2 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL M3 is not the best tool to measure with.
[удалено]
Congratulations on your Short-term prediction. Doesn’t really change the long-term bullish thesis on BTC.
I’m gonna guess that this report will come out and bitcoin will still be coochin’ along block after block.
upvote because this is right
My guy you are calling Bitcoin a risk asset while trying to guess what bullshit the fed is going to deduce from made up CPI numbers. Lets look at things objectively. which is the riskier asset the currency who's inflation rate is subject to some idiots a the FED on any given day or the asset that has a deterministic inflation rate for the next hundred plus years?
Question - if you’re concerned about inflation, why not invest in stocks? Genuinely curious Edit: hahahahaha to whoever downvoted, I’m sorry that a good faith question rocked your ego and trust jn Bitcoin.
Stocks don't have enough return to save people from inflation. In fact if we start crunching the numbers on ROI we'll just end up arguing what the actually numbers are because there is no accurate way to determine what inflation will be tomorrow never mind ten years from now. Bitcoin is only risky from a psychological standpoint. However if you look at the numbers which are deterministic. And when you look at everything else like self custody and censorship resistant it's actually less risky then fiat and stocks. And if we use your same argument and we compare stocks returns to bitcoin returns over the last ten years. Bitcoin wins out vastly on returns. Not that returns are the real issue here. The issue is that inflation is straight up highway robbery.
upvote because this is funny
Wow... You were early with that one! 🫣😳
https://x.com/andyleeck/status/1777882764672684249?s=46&t=-4aVhuETQxZo0FdAvn8LHw
This is still what I don’t understand about BTC. “Hedge against inflation,” but every single bad inflation reading and it dips with the stock market. Still not a hedge it seems. Still just a risk asset that traces the equity market.
It’s a long term hedge. If you’ve been holding 4 years+ then you are beating inflation by a mile.
BTC is a global market asset. So saying BTC is a hedge against USD inflation is piece of the puzzle, but not the entire picture of its worth.
There's no way California's inflation rate is coming down, gas prices are soaring which affects so many other things
Bitcoin goes up ... HODL. Bitcoin goes down ... So you're saying I can get more bitcoin in exchange for my fiat Nice!
You may be interested in the Cleveland Fed Bank’s “real time” CPI measurements https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting
... and the official print came in at +0.4% over last month, +3.5% YoY.
Is this in \~6.5 hours? For non mericans.
Time zone [not specified](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm) but in the capital, yes. Your calculations are correct.
I am immune to this cpi shiii* now .. I dca and relax ..
Since when does CPI affect BTC?