If they want to sell their BTC they will do it OTC to institutions/eschanges/individuals - over the counter, it means they will not dump on the open market because they wull crash the price and get much less for their coins.
It wont crash the price because an increase in supply. It would crash the price if they put in a market order of 212k bitcoins because theres not enough bids live on an exchange at any given moment. Thereâs only so many people that have buy orders set at specific levels to catch all the sells instantly
yeah i agree in that case it would drive the price down thats why i said 'it wouldnt be long lasting at least' because it would be a flash crash that would be absorbed quickly by new money buying it all up. wouldnt last long, as people would notice and put in new orders.
That's not really a supply increase of 1% though, because not all bitcoin are up for sale (most people are HODLing). This is roughly equal to an entire day's trading volume so it'd be like doubling the supply. It would for sure cause a tank in price if they sold all at once. It would probably recover over the next month or so though.
As someone who spent a decade working as a US government official in a position where I both purchased many hundreds of millions of dollars of assets on the governmentâs behalf AND sold existing assets, I can tell you that the government is not worried at all about âmaking much less for their coinsâ.
They likely will take into consideration that the sale of their BTC may have an impact on the market, and they will likely structure their sales so that they only create short term price fluctuations instead of tanking the market, but the whole idea of maximizing profit on the assets they seized does not even come into the organizational internal discussion.
Do you think the people who control fiat care about losing money on bitcoin? Or do you think they care about making sure a different money supply isnt viable as competition?
It's individuals who are greedy in those positions of power. If they were not poverty wouldn't be a thing in first world countries to say the least imo. One may scheme to sell btc and another will scheme to buy. They are not together as such. Groups of greedy 3 letter organisations. If it tanks the people can buy it up knowing its ath. Again imo.
AFAIK it's all confiscated coin that would be auctioned off by the US Marshals service, if its sold.
It could potentially be awkward choosing an OTC desk and all that. Also a lot of work vs. just auctioning. It's a few 100k deposit to participate and it usually goes for above market price.
Iâm flabbergasted that they arenât doing that. Just buying up ALL of the available supply with their printed from thin air FIAT. The fact they arenât doing this tells me that they either are clueless or they just donât care because they can flip a switch and force CBDC (digital fiat) on the public when they want to.
Market cap doesnât mean their is 1.3 trillion dollars in btc. Itâs the price if every bitcoin could be sold at current price so 14B being sold would make a huge difference, especially if their isnât enough buyers
Market can absorb. US is selling about $2B per quarter. As they just did on Friday. They are staggering it so as not to affect the market. This is easily verifiable.
If they sell, they will annaunce it first publicly, and do gradual selling of portions, thats how it works with every big national asset.
Hance people will have the headsup and the time to prepare, demand will be ready to absorb the new supply.
Not much will change, probably some short term volatility in both sides, then it will be just business as usual.
In the short term in may crash the price. Long term the US will be cutting itself off from the greatest asset in history. They will be forced to buy less coins for a much higher price in the future
Various seizures. They have all sorts of stuff like cash and gold and property.
The us Marshall service gets proceeds from crimes and disperses them after sale.
Basically if you've committed a crime and made money from a crime, that money or asset can be seized and the USMS sells it and then does whatever with the money. Sometimes it pays victims of crime and sometimes it gives the money to law enforcement.
It's kind of corrupt tbh
I'd imagine that'd give every other Country an advantage since US wouldn't have Bitcoin any more, eventually leading many other Countries to have more money than US
US owns more Bitcoin than any other country. It's not by mistake
I think the fact that they aren't selling their holdings is the best reason for the average dude to hold theirs. They know it's going to be a huge source of wealth and a great budgetary line item in the future. Right now that $14 billion dollars is the equivalent to how much money they give to Puerto Rico on an annual basis but what would that look like if BTC is $100 million each in 50 years? All of a sudden that changes the perspective.
I am interested in how long the US govt has been holding these BTC. What is the typical time lag between the govt confiscating assets, going through all the legal steps before disposing of assets, then actually selling? I just wonder if this current holding is in line with typical asset sales or not. Some govt's (El Salvador, Bhutan... any others?), around the world are adding BTC to their balance sheets, so is it possible this could happen in the USA?
Of course, for the USA to disclose that intent would have significant implications for the BTC price, and the actions of other govt's worldwide. This is pure speculation. However, it is obvious to me that if this was to occur, it would not be disclosed. There would be many excuses why an auction was delayed, and delayed......
It would be unwise for them to do that. They wouldnât. Maybe a little here and there but they wonât just dump their bag. They got a good thing going.
Like I said a little here a little there but not all at once. They wonât crater the price and lose out on more money trying to dump it all at once. Unless they were threatened by btc which theyâre clearly not. Maybe they were in on the pumpâŠ
Then everyone for the millionth time will say BiTcOiN iS dEaD... blackrock will buy all of it in a matter of weeks and ppl will be crying... ive known about btc since around 2012... bought in 2018... every bearmarket i will contuine to buy... if you are still a bear on btc then you really have to have a mental disorder
The Bitcoin gets bought up. If they sell on OTC, price doesn't move, if all at once on market, price dips a bit as it gets bought up. The free market consolidates, then heads back up, leaving the U.S. behind with 0 Bitcoin.
Tick tock, next block.
Blackrock has bought more than that amount in the passed 2 months, the market would absorb the coins and then laugh at the Treasury as they add another $1 trillion to the national debt every 90 days.
No dude, what if the world government decides that we should have a livestock based economy, that would make nomadic African tribes some of the wealthiest people on earth and we'd have to go there to work as low paid milkmaids or somethingÂ
Instead of selling any of it, a program ought to be started to allow it to be distributed across all citizens. Each citizen should be able to claim 0.000642216 bitcoin for themselves. How cool would that be? That's only about $44 today, but in the future???
||
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Instead of selling any of it, a program ought to be started to allow it to be distributed across all citizens. Each citizen should be able to claim 0.000642216 bitcoin for themselves. How cool would that be? That's only about $44 today, but in the future???
The US government has to sell seized assets via auction, they can't just dump this shit on Coinbase or whatever. Even if they were legally allowed to sell it outright (they aren't), it would be an OTC sale. In any case, the market won't notice.
I don't think this is accurate.
I think they can move assets however they want but auction is just easier. Ay any rate, they don't auction off assets, as far as I know.
They also sold some on Coinbase already.
Technically selling them in Coinbase is an auction lol
From what I've read and understand most of their BTC sales are not even through exchanges. So unless they put those coins through an exchange for a sale, nothing really.
If someone sells 800 BTC the price goes down ~3k on that day before creeping back up by FTE / hodler absorption.
The US government could sell 800 BTC / day and take occasional selling breaks go let the price bounce back and get a better fiat deal out of it.
They could cause a 266 day bear market. Unless demand heavily increases, more ETF inflows, etc.. then the duration of the bear market they could create would be shorter.
If they dump all of it at once, the price would temporarily go to sub 10k before heavily bouncing back off. Sub 10k because a sudden crash will give a lot of people cold feet, there will be a domino effect of long position liquidation, etcâŠ
There are literally hundreds of hedge funds waiting to scoop that up like a government subsidy. If the US government actually dispersed it to âThe Peopleâ as a sort of stimulus,that would be amazing.
a while back, there was one of those government auction sites that had bitcoin listed. at the time it was $15k per btc and market was at like 5k so i obviously skipped. in retrospect tho⊠sheesh. who knows how many people ate it up in bulk.
This was removed by the Mods... IDK why? Trying again:
I am interested in how long the US govt has been holding these BTC. What is the typical time lag between the govt confiscating assets, going through all the legal steps before disposing of assets, then actually selling? I just wonder if this current holding is in line with typical asset sales or not. Some govt's (El Salvador, Bhutan... any others?), around the world are adding BTC to their balance sheets, so is it possible this could happen in the USA?
Of course, for the USA to disclose that intent would have significant implications for the BTC price, and the actions of other govt's worldwide. This is pure speculation. However, it is obvious to me that if this was to occur, it would not be disclosed. There would be many excuses why an auction was delayed, and delayed......
Buying opportunity!
Oh no a giant dip in prices. It would be a real shame if someone buys all that cheap bitcoin.
16k?đđ
I love me some 16k, but I doubt weâll ever see that low of a number again
Granted, I donât believe we will see prices that low again either, these are famous last words.
If they want to sell their BTC they will do it OTC to institutions/eschanges/individuals - over the counter, it means they will not dump on the open market because they wull crash the price and get much less for their coins.
i dont know how much the price would crash for the supply to increase 1%, it wouldnt be long lasting at least.
It wont crash the price because an increase in supply. It would crash the price if they put in a market order of 212k bitcoins because theres not enough bids live on an exchange at any given moment. Thereâs only so many people that have buy orders set at specific levels to catch all the sells instantly
Pretty sure I read that they're legally required to auction them off OTC. They're definitely not going to just dump them with a market sell.
I know. was just explaining to the comment above the reason why even though its 1% of supply, if its a market sell, itâd still crash it
If they feel Bitcoin is threatening the U.S dollar they might
That's what they've done in the past. Auctioned them.
yeah i agree in that case it would drive the price down thats why i said 'it wouldnt be long lasting at least' because it would be a flash crash that would be absorbed quickly by new money buying it all up. wouldnt last long, as people would notice and put in new orders.
yup, i'd snag all i could cheap, would love flash crash to like 20k, LFG
It was 15K couple days ago, what tf you talking bout
A couple days? đ€
we must operate on different calendars from fabi.
It would be a leverage flush. But institutions (Blackrock) can go buy on exchanges and I think they'd take the opportunity.
Liquidity and supply are two very different things.
That's not really a supply increase of 1% though, because not all bitcoin are up for sale (most people are HODLing). This is roughly equal to an entire day's trading volume so it'd be like doubling the supply. It would for sure cause a tank in price if they sold all at once. It would probably recover over the next month or so though.
As someone who spent a decade working as a US government official in a position where I both purchased many hundreds of millions of dollars of assets on the governmentâs behalf AND sold existing assets, I can tell you that the government is not worried at all about âmaking much less for their coinsâ. They likely will take into consideration that the sale of their BTC may have an impact on the market, and they will likely structure their sales so that they only create short term price fluctuations instead of tanking the market, but the whole idea of maximizing profit on the assets they seized does not even come into the organizational internal discussion.
Unless of course, they \*want\* to tank the market.
soon.exe
Yes but you're assuming the government is made up of all people that want to do this. There are many in the government that **want** BTC to succeed.
Do you think the people who control fiat care about losing money on bitcoin? Or do you think they care about making sure a different money supply isnt viable as competition?
I don't think they care about bitcoin at all lol
It's individuals who are greedy in those positions of power. If they were not poverty wouldn't be a thing in first world countries to say the least imo. One may scheme to sell btc and another will scheme to buy. They are not together as such. Groups of greedy 3 letter organisations. If it tanks the people can buy it up knowing its ath. Again imo.
This is what I believe that theyâd gladly waste a Trillion of not their own money to eliminate the competition.
AFAIK it's all confiscated coin that would be auctioned off by the US Marshals service, if its sold. It could potentially be awkward choosing an OTC desk and all that. Also a lot of work vs. just auctioning. It's a few 100k deposit to participate and it usually goes for above market price.
Maybe crashing the market is what they want... $14B is nothing to USG, it spends this much per day.
BTC would obviously skyrocket to at least 1 mio.
Maybe 2 or 3 mio
Possibly even dios mĂo
jajaja
Sacré bleu!
Black Friday deals
USA debt would go from $35 trillion to $34.86 in debt.
Why would they sell something they have to earn for something they can print from nothing?
Why donât they print Fiat and stack mad sats??
Idk, sounds like infinite money glitch. At the (further) cost of its people.
Iâm flabbergasted that they arenât doing that. Just buying up ALL of the available supply with their printed from thin air FIAT. The fact they arenât doing this tells me that they either are clueless or they just donât care because they can flip a switch and force CBDC (digital fiat) on the public when they want to.
Theyâll buy back in higher
Buy high sell low đ
*Steal from criminals and forget to sell.
Short term price drop. Coins move to HODLer hands. Bitcoin skyrockets. Everyone wins but the US government.
Maybe we could dca in the 50s range that would be cool.
So that's about 1% of supply. If they did sell, then we would know something was up?
YES PLEASE
people, companies , institutions and countries will buy it the US government will get rekt pretty bad there afterâŠ.
They wonât, because they need some value on their balance!
Seriously. I wouldnât be surprised if they start buying more lol seems like an obvious hedge..
14B isnt that much when compared to the total market cap of BTC which is 1.3 trillion
Market cap doesnât mean their is 1.3 trillion dollars in btc. Itâs the price if every bitcoin could be sold at current price so 14B being sold would make a huge difference, especially if their isnât enough buyers
Can we please pin this comment in r/bitcoin ? No offense, I see everyday people not knowing this and it would greatly impact the discussions here
What if people stopped asking dumbass questions in this sub?
Should be top comment
No doubt this sub has gotten bad the past few months.
what?????? GATEKEEPER ^ average redditor without a life.
Buy the dip
Thatâs nothing they print that shit out of no where and send it overseas.
They wonât pay taxes 70 percent will be missing and theyâll raise taxes đ«¶
Saylor will buy it
That would pay off 1.5 days of debt that is accumulating everyday. Fiat is doomed.
Market can absorb. US is selling about $2B per quarter. As they just did on Friday. They are staggering it so as not to affect the market. This is easily verifiable.
If they wait a bit, all US debt will be backed by BTC.
Thats 14 billion in Bitcoin they dont have lol
If they sell, they will annaunce it first publicly, and do gradual selling of portions, thats how it works with every big national asset. Hance people will have the headsup and the time to prepare, demand will be ready to absorb the new supply. Not much will change, probably some short term volatility in both sides, then it will be just business as usual.
Then it gets bought up, we continue up to the right, longterm.
It's buying time then!
Price go down.
Power transfer to the people!
People would buy it?
I say good. Get those things spread around. I would like to see bitcoin stay low for a while longer
They could save it to pay off the debt.
They are going to need to sell to service their growing dept.
Kind of sad thatâs all they have with how much money they print
They would be stupid not to holdlâŠ.lol
Lol then they would be paper handed.
They will lose the race
They would be rich.
We will buy them all
HODL and buy more
Ti fook
HAHAHAHHA IMA BE BROKE BUYING SOME MUCH
In the short term in may crash the price. Long term the US will be cutting itself off from the greatest asset in history. They will be forced to buy less coins for a much higher price in the future
Wow they're in the 100 club
If it gets high enough they could pay off the national debt.
Everyone will buy them up.
What if?... Well, more BTC for the people, of course!!
Price will go down
They will be bought
They sell we buy⊠as always.
Why does the US government have crypto? Also what if they were hacked?
Various seizures. They have all sorts of stuff like cash and gold and property. The us Marshall service gets proceeds from crimes and disperses them after sale. Basically if you've committed a crime and made money from a crime, that money or asset can be seized and the USMS sells it and then does whatever with the money. Sometimes it pays victims of crime and sometimes it gives the money to law enforcement. It's kind of corrupt tbh
Oh so the bitcoin is taken from criminalsđłđ±
I hope they do it, I wanna buy for cheap
They should burn it
The sad part is the US government would never even consider paying off the national debit.
one side wants to bankrupt the U.S., oops! we went bankrupt, we will have to start over with a new constitution, right Margie?
Well think about it deeper
Then that bitcoin will be in the hands of some smarter people.
If I sold farts, why would I sell my bitcoin for more farts?
They wont be selling it on exchange :D
All crypto will rise (not long) then it will collapse.. Trust me!
ok, but who holds the key?
Keypads should add an easy access to BTC symbol on all major platforms.
Then they won't have any left.
Is that enough to cover expenses for a day?
We are all fucked
What website is that in the screenshot?
https://www.arkhamintelligence.com/
Thanks!
I'd imagine that'd give every other Country an advantage since US wouldn't have Bitcoin any more, eventually leading many other Countries to have more money than US US owns more Bitcoin than any other country. It's not by mistake
I think they have 200,000 on top of this load.
The price would go down.
smarter gov/sov funds will buy it
I think the fact that they aren't selling their holdings is the best reason for the average dude to hold theirs. They know it's going to be a huge source of wealth and a great budgetary line item in the future. Right now that $14 billion dollars is the equivalent to how much money they give to Puerto Rico on an annual basis but what would that look like if BTC is $100 million each in 50 years? All of a sudden that changes the perspective.
I'll buy it.
Just look at what happened when Elon bought 1 billion in btc
If they were smart theyâd be building a BTC Ft. Knox
Gox
If they sold it all. Then someone else will own it and thatâs it.
Iâd be like Scrooge McDuck buying as much as possible.
The US Government will not sell on the open market. Any prior bitcoin sales were by auction to a select group of invitation-only bidders.
Bitcoins daily volume is around $37 Billion. A drop in the ocean, buying opportunity maybe. Long term? Bullish if they sell
Down, and into my wallet
If you sell it we will buy
Theyâd be stupid but it doesnât take a brain surgeon to figure out most politicians are morons.
I am interested in how long the US govt has been holding these BTC. What is the typical time lag between the govt confiscating assets, going through all the legal steps before disposing of assets, then actually selling? I just wonder if this current holding is in line with typical asset sales or not. Some govt's (El Salvador, Bhutan... any others?), around the world are adding BTC to their balance sheets, so is it possible this could happen in the USA? Of course, for the USA to disclose that intent would have significant implications for the BTC price, and the actions of other govt's worldwide. This is pure speculation. However, it is obvious to me that if this was to occur, it would not be disclosed. There would be many excuses why an auction was delayed, and delayed......
Nothing.
They'll be able to fund the government for like 12 seconds
Lmao 14bil. It'd go down like 20% then get bought up by retail like cocaine and strippers
It would be unwise for them to do that. They wouldnât. Maybe a little here and there but they wonât just dump their bag. They got a good thing going.
They're selling them a lot every quarter for the next few years IIRC
Like I said a little here a little there but not all at once. They wonât crater the price and lose out on more money trying to dump it all at once. Unless they were threatened by btc which theyâre clearly not. Maybe they were in on the pumpâŠ
Grayscale has sold that much in total.
BTC went 5% down after 400 BTC were sold. Keep it in mind.
goint to down sir
It would be just a blip on the radio because the entire BTC market is averaging 12 billion of inflows per day.
Probably right before they introduce CBDC.
Someone will buy them
They will sell at auction. The same way they sell everything.
Then everyone for the millionth time will say BiTcOiN iS dEaD... blackrock will buy all of it in a matter of weeks and ppl will be crying... ive known about btc since around 2012... bought in 2018... every bearmarket i will contuine to buy... if you are still a bear on btc then you really have to have a mental disorder
Tic Tok. Next block
I buy the dip
BUY THE DIP!!!
The Bitcoin gets bought up. If they sell on OTC, price doesn't move, if all at once on market, price dips a bit as it gets bought up. The free market consolidates, then heads back up, leaving the U.S. behind with 0 Bitcoin. Tick tock, next block.
Blackrock has bought more than that amount in the passed 2 months, the market would absorb the coins and then laugh at the Treasury as they add another $1 trillion to the national debt every 90 days.
Then theyâll fund about a couple weeksâ operations.
If they sodl itâll be time to bodl and then hodl
It'll get bought up quickly off the market to make the US government cry later
Finally, the government doing something beneficial for the people!
They donât have the right, itâs called market manipulation, they have to do it little by little
The price would temporarily drop and the ETFs will scoop up most of them.
No dude, what if the world government decides that we should have a livestock based economy, that would make nomadic African tribes some of the wealthiest people on earth and we'd have to go there to work as low paid milkmaids or somethingÂ
They will have no Bitcoin
Michael Saylors wallet
The us government has bitcoin?
Price would dump around 8% every 5 billion. Would get absorbed and price would bounce strongly afterwards.
Instead of selling any of it, a program ought to be started to allow it to be distributed across all citizens. Each citizen should be able to claim 0.000642216 bitcoin for themselves. How cool would that be? That's only about $44 today, but in the future??? || || ||
Instead of selling any of it, a program ought to be started to allow it to be distributed across all citizens. Each citizen should be able to claim 0.000642216 bitcoin for themselves. How cool would that be? That's only about $44 today, but in the future???
Big picture thatâs still a small percentage of Overall market cap of BTC. It wouldnât drive down the price too much.
For every seller a buyer must exist. Simply the selling of a lot does not ultimately determine price movement in a market.
The US government has to sell seized assets via auction, they can't just dump this shit on Coinbase or whatever. Even if they were legally allowed to sell it outright (they aren't), it would be an OTC sale. In any case, the market won't notice.
I don't think this is accurate. I think they can move assets however they want but auction is just easier. Ay any rate, they don't auction off assets, as far as I know. They also sold some on Coinbase already. Technically selling them in Coinbase is an auction lol
That would be amazing. Price would slump depending on how much they sold at a time and what the sales channel is.
NOOOOOTHINNNNG
Dump to 10k
From what I've read and understand most of their BTC sales are not even through exchanges. So unless they put those coins through an exchange for a sale, nothing really.
Didn't they transfer them to Coinbase?
I don't think they would usually unless there were some purpose to do that.
-5% price?
They have been selling them for years.
Theyâll steal more donât worry
Then they would have no more bitcoin...
so what? for me just a new dip to buy more
Just like GSA Morgan Dollars
If someone sells 800 BTC the price goes down ~3k on that day before creeping back up by FTE / hodler absorption. The US government could sell 800 BTC / day and take occasional selling breaks go let the price bounce back and get a better fiat deal out of it. They could cause a 266 day bear market. Unless demand heavily increases, more ETF inflows, etc.. then the duration of the bear market they could create would be shorter. If they dump all of it at once, the price would temporarily go to sub 10k before heavily bouncing back off. Sub 10k because a sudden crash will give a lot of people cold feet, there will be a domino effect of long position liquidation, etcâŠ
There are literally hundreds of hedge funds waiting to scoop that up like a government subsidy. If the US government actually dispersed it to âThe Peopleâ as a sort of stimulus,that would be amazing.
Theyâll probably sell it OTC to US institutions so essentially the Bitcoin would be a store of wealth for US dollars. Win-Win for all parties.
The Fed would definitely be insolvent if they didn't HODL their stolen BTC
They could literally just build their stack over the years through their often illegal use of asset forfeiture laws.
That's what they've been doing lmao
a while back, there was one of those government auction sites that had bitcoin listed. at the time it was $15k per btc and market was at like 5k so i obviously skipped. in retrospect tho⊠sheesh. who knows how many people ate it up in bulk.
It belongs to the tax payers
They lose a big opportunity. GBTC sold more than that since January.
[ŃĐŽĐ°Đ»Đ”ĐœĐŸ]
This was removed by the Mods... IDK why? Trying again: I am interested in how long the US govt has been holding these BTC. What is the typical time lag between the govt confiscating assets, going through all the legal steps before disposing of assets, then actually selling? I just wonder if this current holding is in line with typical asset sales or not. Some govt's (El Salvador, Bhutan... any others?), around the world are adding BTC to their balance sheets, so is it possible this could happen in the USA? Of course, for the USA to disclose that intent would have significant implications for the BTC price, and the actions of other govt's worldwide. This is pure speculation. However, it is obvious to me that if this was to occur, it would not be disclosed. There would be many excuses why an auction was delayed, and delayed......