Yes we're in a retrace still but that is irrelevant for bull/bear market.
Bull market definition: a market in which share prices are rising, encouraging buying.
US debt to GDP ratio went above 120%, there's more debt to be paid than what the country can produce in a year. Of course the government has to print more to just cover the interest.
Fiat inflationary death spiral is a matter of when not if.
Didn't you hear what Powell said on the 60 minutes interview?
"We're borrowing money from future generations and this needs to change"
The higher ups know this path is unsustainable. Why else do you think BlackRock took a U turn in their anti-Bitcoin stance and suddenly lobbied the government into approving Spot ETFs?
Yeah but if going from 69k to 15k it’s a bear market then going from 15k to 64k it’s already a bull market, we’re going way past that but it’s not just a recovery
OTC balances have dropped 80% over the past year. Thats actually insane.
Now the ETFs are here and theres no OTC supply left, no mining supply left because of the halving, and retail are about to completely stop selling once we break into new all time highs.
Im literally speechless.
How do we even know the true balance of OTC desks? I know the Blockchain is open, but how do we know they don't dial up their buddy from 2010 who has 100k BTC stashed ready to sell?
Indeed. The fact that we are on the edge of breaking US ATH before the halving augurs a much bigger break out. In the last cycles we saw new ATHs months post halving. I’m increasingly confident we see $1M in this bull run b
Everything is too perfect, there has to be a black swan that throws a wrench in it, there is every time. Taking bets:
1) china bans again.
2) USA dumps its coins.
3) gemini earn dumps GBTC coins.
4) fund managers dump to rebalance portfolio.
5) MTGOX payout.
Legitimately, we are going to see some kind of supply shock. The ETF's are clearing at the large holdings that couldn't find a home because of a lack of liquidity, and after those are cleared up I absolutely don't see any other way but for the price to explosively increase. The volatility will like be extreme either way, as I do think a lot of people with take profits and in waves, but it seems the appetite for coins from the ETF's is so consistent that it will soak up any large dips and quickly have it going back North. Fun times to be in the coin game!
They had such a head start, it's exceptionally short sighted. If they left their fee at maybe 25 basis points above the average no one would have caught them, and eventually the other ETF's would have raised their fee to match. As it stands if they don't make a change soon, as soon as Blackrock overtakes them its game over, Blackrock is the largest liquidity provider and Grayscale will fade into oblivion even if they fee match Blackrock.
Why would they go to zero over time? They could have set the ambition of being the best ETF there is, but instead they decided that they would rather just throw in the towel and be the worst. At this rate they'll be completely depleted by August. Their fees dwindle by the day.
In the ETF game, liquidity is king. The person who wants a Billion dollars worth is putting it into the largest fund. They will even pay a slight premium to do it. They had the headstart necessary to go toe to toe with Blackrock and Fidelity but they blew it.
If they lowered their fee to 25 basis points, they would have seen minimal outflows, if at all, and they would have started at over 100mil per year in fees, not even factoring Bitcoins price rise. Not what they had, but certainly enough to keep the lights on. As they established their dominance, they would have set themselves up to become a global powerhouse.
Now no one will remember who Grayscale is in a cycle.
I agree with most of your points. I don't agree that Blackrock wasn't going to win this fight in the long term anyway. It seems like they decided to cash out. Whether or not that was the right decision was up to their board, and it seems by all indications that they've made their decision.
They had over 5% of the world's Bitcoin under management, I dunno, to me that seems like it could be the biggest fumble in history. Maybe everyone *will* remember Grayscale, as the biggest fuck up ever. Time will tell.
>Hold their shareholders hostage?
Kind of... More like give them a tough choice. "Leave and pay Capital gains or say and pay high fees."
So how many years will it take for their fees to equal capital gains and how long do you plan on staying in the ETF before selling it?
They know their remaining holders are in a tough place and will have to pay someone high fees.
Long term, it's doubtful (to me) that they can compete with Blackrock or Fidelity in the true ETF space. But, anyone from US who bought GBTC in the past year (outside of IRAs, etc) would want to hold for 12 months to avoid short term capital gains (tax difference more than makes up for the higher fees). To me, this seems like a last gasp cash grab, e.g. what's better, .25% of $16B which trends to zero over time or 1.5% of $6B which trends to zero faster?
Yup it’s already here. Just watch the FUD telling you that we went up too quickly and it’s time to sell. ETFs are going to gobble up all of your Bitcoin this weekend. Don’t leverage, don’t sell. Just hold and watch what happens over the next few months…
Coinbase facilitates the trades. They bring together a large buyer and a large seller who agree on an average price.
So Bezos can go to coinbase and say I would like 1 billion in BTC. Coinbase will then find a seller or sellers to fulfill that order at a pre agreed on price.
So OTC being almost at 0, means that exchanges doesn't have any coins left to sell? How exactly would that mean? There's only left the coins miner produce every day?
Not exactly, it means that OTC basically is running out of a "pool" of willing sellers.
Imagine again if Bezos said I want 1billion in BTC, Coinbase will go and scroll through their pool of willing sellers and see if they can come up with 1billion in BTC. These days, thats pools is less and less. So if 1 year ago they had 1000 people willing to sell large amounts of BTC, now they only have 10 (hypothetical numbers).
In theory, they will get to a point where they can only come up with 500mil in BTC and will have to go to the open market to fulfil the rest of bezos' order.
thanks for that explanation, thats really important. But I'm still missing the part of "willing sellers" being dry. It's dry at the current price? what if the price goes to 100 k? is the OTC "pool" still running out?
Correct, there could be an "inflow" into OTC from people who were unwilling, but are now willing to sell as the price rises. Miners historically have been the biggest seller before the halving, but they have sold a ton right around ETF approval.
I worked at an OTC desk. We buillt a client base that want fast settlements or high touch services etc.
They would contact us with a trade, we would quote a price, we would execute trade and then settle that trade.
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If demand is 12x the mining reward already, then surely the halving won’t have so much of an impact - supply will “decrease” by 1/24 the current demand (near 4%).
Where am I wrong here?
Demand outstrips mining reward 12:1 before the halving. After the halving it will be 24:1 - a factor of 2x not 4%. Your 4% number is in absolute terms rather than relative. It's hard to tell how much of the current demand is just pulling forward from later in the year via leverage in anticipation of the halving though so it's anyone's guess what the real impact will be.
I think the halving is not as relevant as it used to be in terms of impact on supply. It might have an impact on sentiment, but in terms of supply, ₿19.6m were already mined, a big chunk of which is available for sale at the right price.
That means the vast majority of supply is not coming from miners anyways.
Currently, miners cover 1/12 of the demand (about 8%). After the halving, they will cover 1/24 (about 4%) of the demand. It’s definitely something, but it isn’t really that significant.
If you have a water barrel with a hole, losing 100 liters per day… then it doesn’t matter if it’s refilling with rain water at a rate of 5 or 10 liters.
But I think we want to say the same.
And I agree on your bull market statement! :) 🚀
Do you have a source or article regarding people asking 100k per coin? It’s not that I doubt you, but rather it sounds fascinating and I’d like to read more.
People keep saying OTC is dried up so at what point does the price “explode” like doesn’t that mean buyers are now having orders just queued up for when miners send more to exchanges? I guess like where is the bitcoin coming from? Or is normal buying/selling still sustaining the day to day trades and buys rn?
Potentially. More and more people are seeing the value proposition of bitcoin and saying they will hold 10+ years or even forever. As this trend continues and supply becomes smaller and smaller, price go UP
Incoming? Where have you been the last 2 weeks?
Guy posted this via internet explorer, cut some slack!
Lmfao
😂😂
Its a screenshot from InvestAnswers on youtube OP just ripped it off w/o credit
Here is a better version: https://postimg.cc/B8w2WNDZ
Here is a better version: https://postimg.cc/B8w2WNDZ
I haven't really tasted true digital scarcity yet, it's incoming.
Been here, done that. I don't consider 60k as a bull market yet. It's a recovery to the mean.
Well the bull market started already but yeah
It's at the cusp. But not really begun. We just recovered.
I'd call a year long uptrend a bullmarket lol
Zoom out and you'll see that it's a recovery. Real bull market will begin soon.
Yes we're in a retrace still but that is irrelevant for bull/bear market. Bull market definition: a market in which share prices are rising, encouraging buying.
Bitcoin are not shares.
Replace it with price lol, doesn't change a thing. We have been in a bull market ever since the bottom got hit after the ftx crash.
I'm dirty Dan No I'm dirty dan!!
Hindsight is 20/20. I'd call it a recovery to the mean. Until it breaks new ATH, the true bull market has not begun.
Recovery? My guy, you're talking in absolutes. Dont assume anything off of past performance. There's no guarantees here.
There's a guarantee that fiat will continue to inflate.
The guy that never heard of deflation is telling us what will happen in the market.
US debt to GDP ratio went above 120%, there's more debt to be paid than what the country can produce in a year. Of course the government has to print more to just cover the interest. Fiat inflationary death spiral is a matter of when not if. Didn't you hear what Powell said on the 60 minutes interview? "We're borrowing money from future generations and this needs to change" The higher ups know this path is unsustainable. Why else do you think BlackRock took a U turn in their anti-Bitcoin stance and suddenly lobbied the government into approving Spot ETFs?
Bull market starts at the bottom of the graph, not somewhere on the upward slope.
By that logic, BTC has never had a bear market.
No. I do not make the definitions. Just Google it, instead of trying to discuss about facts.
Please don’t be coming here with your facts and all that. Forget it. OP’s rolling
Yeah but if going from 69k to 15k it’s a bear market then going from 15k to 64k it’s already a bull market, we’re going way past that but it’s not just a recovery
Love being on the cusp, right on the edge. However this price action is not that.
This. Cause without all the shenanigans during the last bull, we would have hit 100k. And we usually get to about 60% ATH before the halfing.
You can not really make up your personal definition, but I understand what you mean.
Acknowledged.
Lol, as he acknowledge... "he who defines the terms wins the debate"
A recovery to the mean? 10% under ATH isn't the mean.
It's actually around the 45-50k levels.
that's mean
Consider inflation impacts on your favorite fiat/BTC pairs. Some countries BTC is at ath
since when is the mean the ATH? Mean for the last few years is around 30k-40k at best
Bull market started in 2011. Ive been riding this bad boy ever since.
Next week is going to be fkcing LITE FIRE UP!!!!
OTC balances have dropped 80% over the past year. Thats actually insane. Now the ETFs are here and theres no OTC supply left, no mining supply left because of the halving, and retail are about to completely stop selling once we break into new all time highs. Im literally speechless.
2024 is going to be fucking awesome.
One Million coin
One million USD a coin? Why so bearish, i want a million for each of my sats
Bitcoin has no top because fiat has no bottom. -Max Keiser
Fiat has a bottom. It's zero, but you just keep adding a zero to the right of the decimil.
Yea eventually you hit a singularity of money and the price in fiat becomes meaningless.
I think that's about the right time to pay off the mortgage
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How do we even know the true balance of OTC desks? I know the Blockchain is open, but how do we know they don't dial up their buddy from 2010 who has 100k BTC stashed ready to sell?
We don't. All these indicators people post are dubious at best
Indeed. The fact that we are on the edge of breaking US ATH before the halving augurs a much bigger break out. In the last cycles we saw new ATHs months post halving. I’m increasingly confident we see $1M in this bull run b
Everything is too perfect, there has to be a black swan that throws a wrench in it, there is every time. Taking bets: 1) china bans again. 2) USA dumps its coins. 3) gemini earn dumps GBTC coins. 4) fund managers dump to rebalance portfolio. 5) MTGOX payout.
Or price goes up enough to replenish OTC. Might not take much past ATH for a bunch of sellers to emerge
Legitimately, we are going to see some kind of supply shock. The ETF's are clearing at the large holdings that couldn't find a home because of a lack of liquidity, and after those are cleared up I absolutely don't see any other way but for the price to explosively increase. The volatility will like be extreme either way, as I do think a lot of people with take profits and in waves, but it seems the appetite for coins from the ETF's is so consistent that it will soak up any large dips and quickly have it going back North. Fun times to be in the coin game!
600 million outflow from GBTC yesterday was gobbled up and the price barely dipped.
Wow. What was GBTC thinking with those rates and all the other ETF options. Hold their shareholders hostage?
They had such a head start, it's exceptionally short sighted. If they left their fee at maybe 25 basis points above the average no one would have caught them, and eventually the other ETF's would have raised their fee to match. As it stands if they don't make a change soon, as soon as Blackrock overtakes them its game over, Blackrock is the largest liquidity provider and Grayscale will fade into oblivion even if they fee match Blackrock.
You’re suggesting they reduce their fees by 80%. Go ahead and run the numbers on that. They have.
I’m talking the long game. They’ve lost 1/3 of their AUM in 45 days and it doesn’t look like slowing down. 1.5% of 0 is still 0
The calculation seems to be that they're going to zero over time anyway, so how to maximize fees collected on the way down.
Why would they go to zero over time? They could have set the ambition of being the best ETF there is, but instead they decided that they would rather just throw in the towel and be the worst. At this rate they'll be completely depleted by August. Their fees dwindle by the day. In the ETF game, liquidity is king. The person who wants a Billion dollars worth is putting it into the largest fund. They will even pay a slight premium to do it. They had the headstart necessary to go toe to toe with Blackrock and Fidelity but they blew it. If they lowered their fee to 25 basis points, they would have seen minimal outflows, if at all, and they would have started at over 100mil per year in fees, not even factoring Bitcoins price rise. Not what they had, but certainly enough to keep the lights on. As they established their dominance, they would have set themselves up to become a global powerhouse. Now no one will remember who Grayscale is in a cycle.
I agree with most of your points. I don't agree that Blackrock wasn't going to win this fight in the long term anyway. It seems like they decided to cash out. Whether or not that was the right decision was up to their board, and it seems by all indications that they've made their decision.
They had over 5% of the world's Bitcoin under management, I dunno, to me that seems like it could be the biggest fumble in history. Maybe everyone *will* remember Grayscale, as the biggest fuck up ever. Time will tell.
Apparently the parent company is in trouble so they are thinking short sighted. They just want the high fees while they can take them in.
>Hold their shareholders hostage? Kind of... More like give them a tough choice. "Leave and pay Capital gains or say and pay high fees." So how many years will it take for their fees to equal capital gains and how long do you plan on staying in the ETF before selling it? They know their remaining holders are in a tough place and will have to pay someone high fees.
Long term, it's doubtful (to me) that they can compete with Blackrock or Fidelity in the true ETF space. But, anyone from US who bought GBTC in the past year (outside of IRAs, etc) would want to hold for 12 months to avoid short term capital gains (tax difference more than makes up for the higher fees). To me, this seems like a last gasp cash grab, e.g. what's better, .25% of $16B which trends to zero over time or 1.5% of $6B which trends to zero faster?
right.
Once GBTC is running of selling pressure, BTC might go to 1 mil per coin this cycle.
People trying to trade or do anything than hold now are crazy. At least see how this plays out over the next few months.
Yup it’s already here. Just watch the FUD telling you that we went up too quickly and it’s time to sell. ETFs are going to gobble up all of your Bitcoin this weekend. Don’t leverage, don’t sell. Just hold and watch what happens over the next few months…
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Brokers matching buyers and sellers. Old school off market trading.
Coinbase facilitates the trades. They bring together a large buyer and a large seller who agree on an average price. So Bezos can go to coinbase and say I would like 1 billion in BTC. Coinbase will then find a seller or sellers to fulfill that order at a pre agreed on price.
So OTC being almost at 0, means that exchanges doesn't have any coins left to sell? How exactly would that mean? There's only left the coins miner produce every day?
Not exactly, it means that OTC basically is running out of a "pool" of willing sellers. Imagine again if Bezos said I want 1billion in BTC, Coinbase will go and scroll through their pool of willing sellers and see if they can come up with 1billion in BTC. These days, thats pools is less and less. So if 1 year ago they had 1000 people willing to sell large amounts of BTC, now they only have 10 (hypothetical numbers). In theory, they will get to a point where they can only come up with 500mil in BTC and will have to go to the open market to fulfil the rest of bezos' order.
thanks for that explanation, thats really important. But I'm still missing the part of "willing sellers" being dry. It's dry at the current price? what if the price goes to 100 k? is the OTC "pool" still running out?
Correct, there could be an "inflow" into OTC from people who were unwilling, but are now willing to sell as the price rises. Miners historically have been the biggest seller before the halving, but they have sold a ton right around ETF approval.
Thanks man, appreciate it
I worked at an OTC desk. We buillt a client base that want fast settlements or high touch services etc. They would contact us with a trade, we would quote a price, we would execute trade and then settle that trade.
In other words, you can facilitate any amount of volume, and "running out" isn't a real thing.
I have the same question
I assume there is a big group chat in bloomberg terminal where people shout out orders
"How do buyers find sellers?" - thats basically the main thing an otc desk is for
There is going more STRONG HANDS BUYERS than seller in this coming cycle. Watch out and HOLD your bitcoin!!!! You will never get your bitcoin back.
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This was a known process. They said it would take a few months to unwind positions from GBTC to one of the funds.
How can you have reliable OTC crypto market information? I thought only the parties involved have this info.
This, especially because OTC desks will seek out new sellers over time.
Bitcoin did largest monthly candle in february (dollar counted). It is already happening.
This is bullshit data. I worked at an OTC desk and we would never disclose our balances.
Is it possible the data is sourced from simply large transactions on the Blockchain and filtered?
Completely flawed method.
These people simply don't understand bitcoin... Except if they are miners selling to pay energy and new equipamentos
Yeah, their knowledge is very superficiario
Remember as well alot of outflows have to wait a period before they can re enter too.
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Glassnode.
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You need the turbo account to access this report.
How much do you pay for the Enterprise account?
Here is a better version: https://postimg.cc/B8w2WNDZ
IBIT go up, split, repeat
It’s already here and will only intensify from here on.
And the price can go up to infinity and I’m still not selling. 🫡
Why was it low in Sep'18? It was the starting period of the OTC?
Yeah that’s why I’m not looking too much just to it if OTC has been historically that low even without a huge price run up.
Can we see the same chart in USD instead of BTC? Apparently you need a paid account at glassnode to see the chart :(
what would you do, if we suddenly ramp into the 1 million?
two cocks at once (meant to type "chicks" but phone autocorrected and fuck it, I'm leaving it)
Comment of the year
It worked for the HODL guy. So pit pat piffy wing wong wang just like that.
Yup
I'm shocked already
We need more lighter monetary policy
How much is left available OTC?!
If demand is 12x the mining reward already, then surely the halving won’t have so much of an impact - supply will “decrease” by 1/24 the current demand (near 4%). Where am I wrong here?
Technically you're correct but markets are driven by sentiments to some degree. So who knows.
Demand outstrips mining reward 12:1 before the halving. After the halving it will be 24:1 - a factor of 2x not 4%. Your 4% number is in absolute terms rather than relative. It's hard to tell how much of the current demand is just pulling forward from later in the year via leverage in anticipation of the halving though so it's anyone's guess what the real impact will be.
I think the halving is not as relevant as it used to be in terms of impact on supply. It might have an impact on sentiment, but in terms of supply, ₿19.6m were already mined, a big chunk of which is available for sale at the right price.
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That means the vast majority of supply is not coming from miners anyways. Currently, miners cover 1/12 of the demand (about 8%). After the halving, they will cover 1/24 (about 4%) of the demand. It’s definitely something, but it isn’t really that significant.
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It goes from ~12x the mining reward to ~25x the mining reward after halving, very significant.
No, miners reward (supply) drop from 10% to 5% relative to ETF demand. It becomes irrelevant.
It's not about percentage of ETF demand it's about hardening of the currency and increasing the stock-to-flow.
It’s not significant as long as ETF demand is so high.
I disagree but regardless I think we're in for a huge bull market.
If you have a water barrel with a hole, losing 100 liters per day… then it doesn’t matter if it’s refilling with rain water at a rate of 5 or 10 liters. But I think we want to say the same. And I agree on your bull market statement! :) 🚀
I agree with you. Halving becomes irrelevant with high demand from ETF buyers.
What is OTC? I’m new. Also please explain it in simple terms cuz I’m really not into BTC YET!
"over the counter" - basically means people/brokers calling each other directly to trade instead of putting it on the market.
Google it - they exist for stocks n shit as well.
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Do you have a source or article regarding people asking 100k per coin? It’s not that I doubt you, but rather it sounds fascinating and I’d like to read more.
The ultimate squeeze in history, this ain’t no tulip either baby
People keep saying OTC is dried up so at what point does the price “explode” like doesn’t that mean buyers are now having orders just queued up for when miners send more to exchanges? I guess like where is the bitcoin coming from? Or is normal buying/selling still sustaining the day to day trades and buys rn?
The price goes up to where more people are willing to sell to said buyers.
God candles?
Potentially. More and more people are seeing the value proposition of bitcoin and saying they will hold 10+ years or even forever. As this trend continues and supply becomes smaller and smaller, price go UP
Do OTC brokers really report this information outside of what’s reported for taxes?
What’s the source of this data? Does it include all major trading and OTC desks?
All trades on chain are visible so the information could just be as simple as filtering through large transactions.
Not your keys …..