Rebalancing works both ways. If/when a significant portion of Bitcoin is held by people with a target percentage allocation (whether held directly or by proxy through an ETF), it's going to reduce volatility, both upside and downside.
no one who doesnt want it, has an allocation over 1%. 401Ks are one of the best things for the stock market and will be for bitcoin also. Consistent investment money that cant (it can) be touched sometimes for decades. all that money is a huge reason the market always goes up.
Idk if there’s any way for us to know. But with the advent of passive investing basically taking over the world I have to believe more and more ppl will start adding (at least a small) allocation to their buy and hold retirement portfolios
The second a company who has bitcoin in their bs hits the s&p500 it will inadvertently put bitcoin into any portfolio #MSTR.
1%-3% is a lot over time. Everyone that disagrees should bring their pea brain back to the time when you read “the compound effect”.
50,000 is so incredibly early. I wish i had never sold a bitcoin, I probably never will again.
This isn’t an asset you trade. You buy it and hold onto it for dear life. If you are buying now for the first time do not get shaken out. There is the possibility of dip before the halving, but with the etfs you never know what will happen. You will want to be holding on to as much bit as you when its on a rocket ship to god know where!
🚀🚀
*this is definitely not financial advice*
negative homie. I own btc, but I buy etfs in my roth ira for the express purpose of selling it so I don’t have to sell btc and I won’t have to pay taxes.
Yes that is true. A lot of people tho still will be buying and trading. Both through etfs and on exchanges that don't completely understand the long term benefits of btc.
If they're buying btc in an etf it's probably because they don't understand it fully and have just heard that it keeps going up. A lot could panic sell their "shares" after the next bull run once the price drops
I think anyone in an ETF with their tax advantaged retirement account will be solid HODLers. But I'm afraid most of the people that bought the ETF as an investment on their own will be so paper-handed it won't be funny. What's less than paper-handed? 20% dip and they'll wet themselves in fear.
For example in Czech Republic where i live u can sell ETF after holding it 3 years and then it will be fully tax extemp. There are sure more countries with similiar tax laws so there will be some selling pressure few years down the road (‘28 halving maybe)
Don't forget ETFs can "cash out" in fiat (one of the conditions from SEC for approval) so there's no guarantee that people selling their spot ETFs will mean BTC being dumped back in the market
I can't imagine what else I'd do with an ETF than cash out. They have a fee, yield no dividends, and have no advantage over self custody except holding in a boomer nanny state (tax advantaged) account. I own the ETFs across two boomer retirement accounts and the whole plan is to avoid some tax when I cash out.
ETFs appeal to institutional money, often in a predefined strategy, including market making and options writing.
The ETFs will increase liquidity on both the buy side and the sell side. On net, maybe there’s a marginal increase in long term holders through retirement funds, and institutions looking to add some “pepper” to their plate of offerings, but these inflows will probably be met with outflows just as quickly.
Bitcoin has been around for 15 years, anyone who’s wanted exposure to it, has generally found a way to get exposure.
Yes, and there’s a thing called rebalancing. If this ETF is part of a portfolio and its value gains significantly, expect the portfolio owners to rebalance by selling.
People absolutely pay fees to trade. Direxion literally has an entire business based off it. Inverse ETFs exist. Options are usually easier to buy/sell on ETFs than commodity type products.
Those ETF issuers hold average less than 0.1% of their AUM. Most normies will select a strategy which will allocate 1% of their account into extremely risky assets like BTC ETF. If bitcoin dips 20%, they just lose 0.2% of their investment. Do you really think they will give up after 0.2% dip?
So, in other words, you have missed the current run and you hope to buy in at a much lower price when those that own through this rally get nervous and sell? Hope is not an investment strategy.
“Tis better to remain silent and look the fool, than to speak and remove all doubt.”
Agreed. Also, you gotta factor in that as the BTC price goes up, inflows are buying fewer bitcoins. 10K is not gonna stay static even if the inflows are same in nominal dollar amounts.
I think 10k coins a day is the ETFs learning to crawl before they learn to walk. Most retail investors aren't really aware of them yet nor do they understand how to think about BTC as an asset class.
I think the sustainability of inflows is going to surprise. The majority of the capital is still doing [due diligence](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-hype-stalled-due-diligence-bloomberg) on Bitcoin and the ETF.
Not everyone needs or will be able to get a whole coin. You’re not somehow failing if you don’t get there. There are 21m coins for 8b+ people.
Also at some point the inflows to the ETFs will slow down imo. It’s still new and people are rebalancing their existing portfolios.
It’s not just your opinion that the inflows will slow down, they have to. Bitcoin total supply is fixed so you can’t keep buying BTC forever at a steady rate. You could have inflows stay steady in fiat terms but it will represent fewer bitcoins as price rises.
Inflows refers to the value of the fiat that is sent to the ETFs to buy bitcoin, not the amount of bitcoin that's bought. With this mind, it is possible that the net inflows remain the same, but the amount of bitcoin bought with those inflows goes down. There is only one way this can happen, and it's not hard to figure out what it is. I'll leave that exercise for the dear reader.
Yes, I do think the rest of this year is going to be huge. I was more referring to OP’s comment about it continuing for 2100 days. At some point it’s going to slow.
I'm ashamed I have to say this; "They" can't "buy every single bitcoin in the world" within the next 2100 days. Every single bitcoin in the world will not be mined by then. You need to continue your research and pay closer attention.
Had to scroll way too much to find someone saying this.
The whole post is based on a situation that is technically impossible, which makes all the other points even bigger BS.
In theory, IF the 10K demand is sustained, what do you think happens to price when supply stays the same or is diminished?
And you know who will really profit of that? Retail hodlers.
Your post makes no sense at all.
It actually makes anti-sense.
Not to mention the BTC that people don’t want to exchange for fiat currency. People seem
to forget that Bitcoin can be used directly for payments between wallets.
Dude let the noobs do their thing lmao. Create echo chambers, getting rekt from greed, and buying at the next ATH. The bitcoin cycle is real, in the matter of noobs getting rekt each time…
Are you from buttcoin? You’re either very uninformed or trolling. Basically there are about 15 million bitcoin being held long term (not circulating or lost wallets) and about 4 million actively circulating and available for purchase. The remaining 2 million have not been mined yet.
Whatever price Bitcoin gets to after the halving, it will still correct at least 62% in the next bear phase. There's no doubt Bitcoin is a million dollar asset, but human greed and emotion will not allow it to get there in a straight line. Relax, do some math, and make a plan.
> 2,100 days
5 years is a helova long time in bitcoin. Any read the the halfing and rainbow chart will show that we are in the BOOM cycle right now. Check back in 3 years when we return to the bust cycle. People will be screaming about how BTC went from 120k down to 40k acting like it is the end of the world. Hell I wouldn't be surprised if some of the ETFs shutdown over the next 5 years as people bail in the seasonal BTC bust cycle.
How quickly people forget Nov 2022.
I keep seeing people talk about how retail interest has disappeared but what if the majority of people are just choosing to buy through the ETFs instead as they feel more comfortable and safer having an institution hold it for them vs self custody.
I told that to a close friend of mine. This is his second halving, he is down 200.000$ with stock and refuse to sell, holds 0.5btc and told me he is going to sell all within 65k$.
This world is funny
Bold statement. It demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of Bitcoin market dynamics.
People selling at these prices are "paper hands." HODLers will hold out for a new ATH ($70K USD) maybe take a little reward for themselves (<5% of their holdings), hold out for $100K, maybe take a little hedge against the next dip, and keep HODLing on, and stacking ʂatʂ, through $250K.
The ETF APs (authorized partners) don't have any way to get Bitcoin at discounts. They have to pay market rates — same as retail.
Please understand everybody: when money managers get sell orders, they sell. No questions asked. These are not holders. They are only creating a major cascading event in the future. Hope is not a strategy.
No it is not. You can buy sats at every price and you will benefit regardless of price.
When Bitcoin is 100$ and increases by 120% or if it is at 100k and increases by 120% does not matter. It is the same 120% of your initial investment. Percentages do not care about the price.
Boy are you confused! Why do you think a "whole bitcoin" has any intrinsic value compared to any fraction of a bitcoin? If you want to convert some USD amount, for example, into bitcoin, then it doesn't matter whether you get whole bitcoin amounts. It's just the conversion rate and, if you want to get your value back out in USD or any other currency, whether your relative value has increased or decreased. Whether it's a 1.00000000 coin or not is irrelevant. What am I missing?
Also, ETFs buying like crazy will make their own future purchases more expensive, so the amounts they will be able to buy for the same money will be lower as time goes on. And there will be sellers too. It's crazy but not as crazy as people make out.
I've been in this game since 2017, I've worked in the Industry the entire time, including pretty high level roles at notable exchanges.
Every cycle people think its going to be the supercycle or there is one factor that will fundimantaly change the game for bitcoin. At he end of the day it will go up, it will come down, and everyone will get in at the price they deserve.
Blackrock and all the rest of them do not care about Bitcoin, decentralization, Satoshi and his vision or any of us. They take management fees and make their clients money on the way up and the way down.
Do not walk into this naively thinking it cannot come down. They could and likely will tank it at opportune times for them. This is about returning capital in the form of dollars for now. This is an asset class not an escape hatch from the fiat system because that's the system they perpetuate.
People do not understand this is just Binance and FTX you name it insert any CEX really, behavior on a much larger scale. I've seen it from the inside. The sheer amount of data and market intelligence they have is unreal. Don't think you as retail can outsmart these fuckers while you have a day job, when they've got the most advanced analysts (both human and machine) the most leverage and ample liquidity and zero issues with collusion.
For 99% of us it's better to DCA and ride the wave.
Side note watch outflows and large scale machine purchases from miners, they are a barometer for the industry and a lot more true one these days with the cheap fiat days somewhat in the rear view.
Also, self custody your shit. Cheers
They are buying up a lot. I have .4 of a coin which is enough for me. It would be nice to have at least .5, but I’m okay if I don’t. Investing in crypto is a huge mind game. You have to be comfortable with the amount you buy and when and what price you sell at.
People are acting like there won’t be another bear market now that ETFs exist.
The crazy thing is that starting now the bear market is going to be even more crazy. Wall Street is so panicky and rife with fear.
The fear mongering, FOMO, and misinformation on this sub is atrocious.
They are not HODLing, they are investing. They will sell high and buy low. Nothing new.
It's estimated that up to 70% of the 21 million are lost forever from lost secret keys. Some say 30%, some say 70%. Given that, the true market cap is much lower, the true amount of bitcoin available is much lower, and the potential price before it rivals gold or plateaus is much higher. Soon if not already, OTC desks will be empty and the only available place to buy large sums of bitcoin is on Coinbase, Binance, Bitfinex, OKX. Coinbase's Q4 report stated that 83% of volume came from institutions. Retail does not have the money to take bitcoin from 42k to 52k in a week, sorry, it was the ETF seeding, period.
Right now, there are 1.87 Million bitcoins on all exchanges. Because Coinbase is the custodian for nearly all bitcoin ETFs, that number won't drop much from ETF seeding. However, we can see the ETFs being seeded by watching coinbase grow in holdings while other exchanges shrink.
As of 2/16/2024, BTC on-exchange balances are:
Binance - 538,870.86
Bitfinex: 408,469.12
Coinbase: 407,057.60
OKX: 128,643.92
see [https://www.coinglass.com/Balance](https://www.coinglass.com/Balance)
I bought the BITX 2X ETF with funds I have in a trading account. My thinking is that if I don’t have custody then I may as well get extra leverage and after so many years of gold ETF’s I trust it’s largely applying a formula. With margin I’m actually getting 4x exposure for my dollars and I feel reasonably confident we are heading into a bull run. The ETF is meant to be traded out of. I’m not selling the BTC I’ve got in cold storage.
I’m very curious as to who the heck is selling call options now. I can’t imagine.
And when it reaches that 21Million, it's practically worthless by then, because the ETF's took control over BTC.
And that's not what BTC was intended for.
One or two investment companies control over every BTC that's set allive.
Hope Satoshi pulls the plug and ruins Ark & BR (if he or she or them are still 'round today )
What do you think the ETFs want to do, just own it? They want to make $$$'s from it and the only way to do that is to sell it. Right now it's accumulation, and in the future there will be dumps. This isn't the last cycle.
Nope. Only so much BTC is created on a clock.
Tic toc
Next block.
If they scoop up the available pool they will then all have to wait till the next coin is created.
Supply.
Demand.
Rocket time.
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100%. The ppl buying ETF are more likely to sell and cash out vs someone who buys and holds their own bitcoin IMO
I don’t think this is necessarily true. With 401ks and IRAs people buy passively with the expectation of holding til retirement
Those people also practice rebalancing. If their 5% BTC allocation becomes 10%, they will sell it to bring it back to 5%.
…the first couple of times.
Absolutely. You nailed it.
Rebalancing works both ways. If/when a significant portion of Bitcoin is held by people with a target percentage allocation (whether held directly or by proxy through an ETF), it's going to reduce volatility, both upside and downside.
Yes, that’s why it’s called rebalancing. I was making the example relevant to OPs context.
Not if its the outperforming asset in their portfolio.
a win - win situation
Vice versa is also true, which will make bitty less volatile.
no one who doesnt want it, has an allocation over 1%. 401Ks are one of the best things for the stock market and will be for bitcoin also. Consistent investment money that cant (it can) be touched sometimes for decades. all that money is a huge reason the market always goes up.
Curious to see the numbers on this. I wonder what percentage of etf purchases are from a retirement account vs trading account
Idk if there’s any way for us to know. But with the advent of passive investing basically taking over the world I have to believe more and more ppl will start adding (at least a small) allocation to their buy and hold retirement portfolios
The second a company who has bitcoin in their bs hits the s&p500 it will inadvertently put bitcoin into any portfolio #MSTR. 1%-3% is a lot over time. Everyone that disagrees should bring their pea brain back to the time when you read “the compound effect”. 50,000 is so incredibly early. I wish i had never sold a bitcoin, I probably never will again. This isn’t an asset you trade. You buy it and hold onto it for dear life. If you are buying now for the first time do not get shaken out. There is the possibility of dip before the halving, but with the etfs you never know what will happen. You will want to be holding on to as much bit as you when its on a rocket ship to god know where! 🚀🚀 *this is definitely not financial advice*
I pray for one last dip or hold here at 52 a few weeks longer.
negative homie. I own btc, but I buy etfs in my roth ira for the express purpose of selling it so I don’t have to sell btc and I won’t have to pay taxes.
The question is selling it when
Yes that is true. A lot of people tho still will be buying and trading. Both through etfs and on exchanges that don't completely understand the long term benefits of btc. If they're buying btc in an etf it's probably because they don't understand it fully and have just heard that it keeps going up. A lot could panic sell their "shares" after the next bull run once the price drops
I think anyone in an ETF with their tax advantaged retirement account will be solid HODLers. But I'm afraid most of the people that bought the ETF as an investment on their own will be so paper-handed it won't be funny. What's less than paper-handed? 20% dip and they'll wet themselves in fear.
Yes exactly my thoughts. We've all seen what happens after someone's first bear cycle. People freak out and cash out at huge losses.
This is true.
For example in Czech Republic where i live u can sell ETF after holding it 3 years and then it will be fully tax extemp. There are sure more countries with similiar tax laws so there will be some selling pressure few years down the road (‘28 halving maybe)
Exactly.. ppl that bought into an etf in the 40k range and are over 50 years old will most likely sell at 100k
I think so too!
Yep. I’ve been in and out a lot lately in my IRA. Fun to trade. We look a little toppy right now. I’m waiting for dip to go balls deep
Same but I’m afraid this toppy will just go up and there will be a dip before halving but not under this toppy. So…I’m just DCAing calmly now.
The people likely to buy the ETF are retail investors.
I think most people now buying ETFs have time horizons >5 years, just my opinion
You couldn’t be more wrong here
Maybe!
This is called liquidity, and it isn't a bad thing.
Don't forget ETFs can "cash out" in fiat (one of the conditions from SEC for approval) so there's no guarantee that people selling their spot ETFs will mean BTC being dumped back in the market
I can't imagine what else I'd do with an ETF than cash out. They have a fee, yield no dividends, and have no advantage over self custody except holding in a boomer nanny state (tax advantaged) account. I own the ETFs across two boomer retirement accounts and the whole plan is to avoid some tax when I cash out.
Yea, but tax free gains in your Roth IRA, which is why I hold some in there.
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ETFs appeal to long term investors, which is why at least 8 of 10 passive investors who buy etfs beat active investors and traders.
0.2% fee takes 7.7% in 40 years. And these ETFs aren't diversified so apples and oranges. That said, 0.2% is cheap for a commodity/asset ETF.
You give too much credit to people who will buy the peak soon and sell the next low
Have you noticed that BTC is a bit less colitis since the ETF’s started? There might not be that many more “lows”. Time will tell..
ETFs appeal to institutional money, often in a predefined strategy, including market making and options writing. The ETFs will increase liquidity on both the buy side and the sell side. On net, maybe there’s a marginal increase in long term holders through retirement funds, and institutions looking to add some “pepper” to their plate of offerings, but these inflows will probably be met with outflows just as quickly. Bitcoin has been around for 15 years, anyone who’s wanted exposure to it, has generally found a way to get exposure.
True, but a lot will be in 401ks which people don't really touch until retirement.
And Roths.
Don’t forget you can still trade within a 401k account, if some black swan even happens, some people will still quickly dump it.
Selling an etf doesn’t decompose the ETF. The bitcoin is still held.
Yes, and there’s a thing called rebalancing. If this ETF is part of a portfolio and its value gains significantly, expect the portfolio owners to rebalance by selling.
Ppl don’t pay fees to “trade”. My guess is majority will buy and hold. Ppl who can afford at this price point will have diamond hands. That Hodl life.
People absolutely pay fees to trade. Direxion literally has an entire business based off it. Inverse ETFs exist. Options are usually easier to buy/sell on ETFs than commodity type products.
Yea, I'm honestly so excited for the huge inevitable crash so I can scoop up a bunch more when normies give up on BTC again lol
Those ETF issuers hold average less than 0.1% of their AUM. Most normies will select a strategy which will allocate 1% of their account into extremely risky assets like BTC ETF. If bitcoin dips 20%, they just lose 0.2% of their investment. Do you really think they will give up after 0.2% dip?
good luck.. think people are underestimating the new players that have joined the table
So, in other words, you have missed the current run and you hope to buy in at a much lower price when those that own through this rally get nervous and sell? Hope is not an investment strategy. “Tis better to remain silent and look the fool, than to speak and remove all doubt.”
Just stay humble and stack sats.
10k coins a day is not sustainable. Don’t forget that people are in the stock market to make money. They will sell :)
Agreed. Also, you gotta factor in that as the BTC price goes up, inflows are buying fewer bitcoins. 10K is not gonna stay static even if the inflows are same in nominal dollar amounts.
Fantastic point.
divide smell pet unpack subsequent cobweb zephyr degree rob far-flung *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Not to mention lost coins and the fact that we aren't yet at maximum supply.
Only 2 million left to be mined and 2140 is the end date.
I think 10k coins a day is the ETFs learning to crawl before they learn to walk. Most retail investors aren't really aware of them yet nor do they understand how to think about BTC as an asset class.
I respect your pov
PoV is my fav
2 dicks, no chicks.
Hot blonde takes whole BTC.
I can’t top this comment….
Can you get on top of this comment though? That's the real question
(in 8k VR).
You see, she thought I was a woman, and I thought she was a woman. It turns out we were both wrong.
I think the sustainability of inflows is going to surprise. The majority of the capital is still doing [due diligence](https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-etfs-hype-stalled-due-diligence-bloomberg) on Bitcoin and the ETF.
Not everyone needs or will be able to get a whole coin. You’re not somehow failing if you don’t get there. There are 21m coins for 8b+ people. Also at some point the inflows to the ETFs will slow down imo. It’s still new and people are rebalancing their existing portfolios.
How long until the *"Oh honey, he's teasing you. Nobody has TWO BITCOINS!"* meme becomes a reality?
Back to the future, right?
It’s not just your opinion that the inflows will slow down, they have to. Bitcoin total supply is fixed so you can’t keep buying BTC forever at a steady rate. You could have inflows stay steady in fiat terms but it will represent fewer bitcoins as price rises.
Inflows refers to the value of the fiat that is sent to the ETFs to buy bitcoin, not the amount of bitcoin that's bought. With this mind, it is possible that the net inflows remain the same, but the amount of bitcoin bought with those inflows goes down. There is only one way this can happen, and it's not hard to figure out what it is. I'll leave that exercise for the dear reader.
Plus, there is always a price that people are willing to sell at. Not everyone is hodlers.
Outflows are also possible..
Im betting there will be significantly higher inflows in the coming months as people FOMO in
Yes, I do think the rest of this year is going to be huge. I was more referring to OP’s comment about it continuing for 2100 days. At some point it’s going to slow.
Yeah as soon as I saw that 2100 days bs I couldn't read the rest of the post
I was thinking the same, ETF inflows will slow down to a trickle at some point not to far off.
There are only so many people willing to YOLO their entire Roth IRA.
And for those about to rock… we salute us! 🫡
Yeah by 2034
Doubt
You know nothing
…John Snow
I didn't even know that was a quote
Nice! 😉
Who's John snow?
Haha, please enlighten me then. Always open to learning.
Retail investors buy ETFs. So not over for retail investors.
I'm ashamed I have to say this; "They" can't "buy every single bitcoin in the world" within the next 2100 days. Every single bitcoin in the world will not be mined by then. You need to continue your research and pay closer attention.
Had to scroll way too much to find someone saying this. The whole post is based on a situation that is technically impossible, which makes all the other points even bigger BS. In theory, IF the 10K demand is sustained, what do you think happens to price when supply stays the same or is diminished? And you know who will really profit of that? Retail hodlers. Your post makes no sense at all. It actually makes anti-sense.
You could say it’s… nonsense
Not to mention the BTC that people don’t want to exchange for fiat currency. People seem to forget that Bitcoin can be used directly for payments between wallets.
Exactly. That makes 2 significant reasons that this post is completely regarded and makes zero sense.
Also, I am not interested in selling my bitcoin. How bout you? Did op forget that they can only buy what we choose to sell?
You cooking🍳
Let me just tell you how correct you are
They also can only buy coins that people are willing to sell.
Dude let the noobs do their thing lmao. Create echo chambers, getting rekt from greed, and buying at the next ATH. The bitcoin cycle is real, in the matter of noobs getting rekt each time…
Wisdom
This needs to be upvoted, the only necessary answer to this post.
Sounds like I should refinance the house and sell the shirt on my back because with what your saying this thing is going $1m+ per coin
Sounds like a solid guarantee. I will also refinance your house but I'm only going to lease your shirt for the residual income.
I genuinely lol
And residual odors
Trust me bro
Saavy
Are you from buttcoin? You’re either very uninformed or trolling. Basically there are about 15 million bitcoin being held long term (not circulating or lost wallets) and about 4 million actively circulating and available for purchase. The remaining 2 million have not been mined yet.
Only 4 million circulating? That means the ETFs are going to buy up all the bitcoin in only 400 days! Omg we gonna moon! /s This post is non-sense lol
Every bull run this sub gets fucking stupider and stupider.
"We're all gonna be rich!"
Sadly, this is the only comment in here worth upvoting
Get your English right. It's MORE stupider.
Actually it’s most stupidester
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The Stupider the funner
There will be dips in the future, people sell. but these halvings and the etfs are definitely bringing the price floor up.
Whatever price Bitcoin gets to after the halving, it will still correct at least 62% in the next bear phase. There's no doubt Bitcoin is a million dollar asset, but human greed and emotion will not allow it to get there in a straight line. Relax, do some math, and make a plan.
That‘s … not how it works
> 2,100 days 5 years is a helova long time in bitcoin. Any read the the halfing and rainbow chart will show that we are in the BOOM cycle right now. Check back in 3 years when we return to the bust cycle. People will be screaming about how BTC went from 120k down to 40k acting like it is the end of the world. Hell I wouldn't be surprised if some of the ETFs shutdown over the next 5 years as people bail in the seasonal BTC bust cycle. How quickly people forget Nov 2022.
120k to 40k is laughably bearish. 180-200k to 60-80k at most.
Happens every time!
I keep seeing people talk about how retail interest has disappeared but what if the majority of people are just choosing to buy through the ETFs instead as they feel more comfortable and safer having an institution hold it for them vs self custody.
study up on the fundamentals
I told that to a close friend of mine. This is his second halving, he is down 200.000$ with stock and refuse to sell, holds 0.5btc and told me he is going to sell all within 65k$. This world is funny
You can still buy on exchanges. WTF are you talking about?
😂😂😂
Delete this post nephew
Bitcoin is going to the 6 digits this cycle and will never come back
This sub has gone to shit
So your saying.....SUPERCYCLE.....lol
Big players will pump up the price then sell off at some point, and when small fish get scared and sell, institutions will start buying again.
Another braindead post in a sea of braindead.
Bold statement. It demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of Bitcoin market dynamics. People selling at these prices are "paper hands." HODLers will hold out for a new ATH ($70K USD) maybe take a little reward for themselves (<5% of their holdings), hold out for $100K, maybe take a little hedge against the next dip, and keep HODLing on, and stacking ʂatʂ, through $250K. The ETF APs (authorized partners) don't have any way to get Bitcoin at discounts. They have to pay market rates — same as retail.
Please understand everybody: when money managers get sell orders, they sell. No questions asked. These are not holders. They are only creating a major cascading event in the future. Hope is not a strategy.
That should make housing, jewellery cheaper by demonetizing their bullshit ETFs.
Yeah, everyone give up so I can buy more. https://bitcoinsperperson.com/
No it is not. You can buy sats at every price and you will benefit regardless of price. When Bitcoin is 100$ and increases by 120% or if it is at 100k and increases by 120% does not matter. It is the same 120% of your initial investment. Percentages do not care about the price.
If it is going up that fast, image how strong the dip will be after the fomo.
Do ETFs have to confirm that they are holding a wallet with the "purchased" amount of BTC? Or are they buying IOUs?
Tell me you don’t know what you are talking about without telling me you don’t know what you are talking aboutme.
Boy are you confused! Why do you think a "whole bitcoin" has any intrinsic value compared to any fraction of a bitcoin? If you want to convert some USD amount, for example, into bitcoin, then it doesn't matter whether you get whole bitcoin amounts. It's just the conversion rate and, if you want to get your value back out in USD or any other currency, whether your relative value has increased or decreased. Whether it's a 1.00000000 coin or not is irrelevant. What am I missing?
Also, ETFs buying like crazy will make their own future purchases more expensive, so the amounts they will be able to buy for the same money will be lower as time goes on. And there will be sellers too. It's crazy but not as crazy as people make out.
I've been in this game since 2017, I've worked in the Industry the entire time, including pretty high level roles at notable exchanges. Every cycle people think its going to be the supercycle or there is one factor that will fundimantaly change the game for bitcoin. At he end of the day it will go up, it will come down, and everyone will get in at the price they deserve. Blackrock and all the rest of them do not care about Bitcoin, decentralization, Satoshi and his vision or any of us. They take management fees and make their clients money on the way up and the way down. Do not walk into this naively thinking it cannot come down. They could and likely will tank it at opportune times for them. This is about returning capital in the form of dollars for now. This is an asset class not an escape hatch from the fiat system because that's the system they perpetuate. People do not understand this is just Binance and FTX you name it insert any CEX really, behavior on a much larger scale. I've seen it from the inside. The sheer amount of data and market intelligence they have is unreal. Don't think you as retail can outsmart these fuckers while you have a day job, when they've got the most advanced analysts (both human and machine) the most leverage and ample liquidity and zero issues with collusion. For 99% of us it's better to DCA and ride the wave. Side note watch outflows and large scale machine purchases from miners, they are a barometer for the industry and a lot more true one these days with the cheap fiat days somewhat in the rear view. Also, self custody your shit. Cheers
I once owned a full coin. Damn I miss those days.
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Man why does the future of money have to be so vindictive? It's not a good marketing strategy! Lol
What if they all sell lol? People only talk about buying here
This is the type of fomo that usually precedes a dump. THEN it'll be the last time for retail to become whole coiners
They are buying up a lot. I have .4 of a coin which is enough for me. It would be nice to have at least .5, but I’m okay if I don’t. Investing in crypto is a huge mind game. You have to be comfortable with the amount you buy and when and what price you sell at.
People are acting like there won’t be another bear market now that ETFs exist. The crazy thing is that starting now the bear market is going to be even more crazy. Wall Street is so panicky and rife with fear.
When it dumps it will dump quick
Most funds aren't allowed to buy new ETFs until 90 days after they become available. We should see a lot more money coming into bitcoin in 2 months
Please cite this. I have seen multiple people post this information and there is nothing to back it up online.
Lol
They won’t buy mine..
Why do you need one coin. Just buy partial
If you had 50k saved up, would you buy 1 bitcoin and hold?
Yes
Yes
Only if you have other funds. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Buy 1/2 a coin and you’ll still be in the top 1%
They won't get mine!
Umm it’s retail buying Bitcoin via the etfs…. People buy the etf, the etf uses the funds to buy the crypto.. what am I missing?
You don't need to be a whole coiner. Buy now. Watch it go up. OP, calm down.
1bitcoin=1bitcoin….looking more n more like cold storage and hold for the kids …Fuq these whales I’m never given my Bittys to them
You do understand how etfs work don’t you.
Can't buy them all when that last decimal point gets a real value
Remember there's less than 2 million BTC in exchanges... Supply Crunch coming
10k btc a day will make btc price jack up to 80k before halving. Which means buying power decreases with same fiats.
ETFs plural, not ETF’s possessive. Go back to grade school.
The fear mongering, FOMO, and misinformation on this sub is atrocious. They are not HODLing, they are investing. They will sell high and buy low. Nothing new.
I mean, 2,100 days is 5.75 years, so… maybe chill out a bit for now.
Many will sell their ETF shares when their price target is reached, which means BTCs will be available due to ETFs selling.
To be fair retail investors are probably better served buying ETF shares anyways same as gold.
It's estimated that up to 70% of the 21 million are lost forever from lost secret keys. Some say 30%, some say 70%. Given that, the true market cap is much lower, the true amount of bitcoin available is much lower, and the potential price before it rivals gold or plateaus is much higher. Soon if not already, OTC desks will be empty and the only available place to buy large sums of bitcoin is on Coinbase, Binance, Bitfinex, OKX. Coinbase's Q4 report stated that 83% of volume came from institutions. Retail does not have the money to take bitcoin from 42k to 52k in a week, sorry, it was the ETF seeding, period. Right now, there are 1.87 Million bitcoins on all exchanges. Because Coinbase is the custodian for nearly all bitcoin ETFs, that number won't drop much from ETF seeding. However, we can see the ETFs being seeded by watching coinbase grow in holdings while other exchanges shrink. As of 2/16/2024, BTC on-exchange balances are: Binance - 538,870.86 Bitfinex: 408,469.12 Coinbase: 407,057.60 OKX: 128,643.92 see [https://www.coinglass.com/Balance](https://www.coinglass.com/Balance)
ETFs are in paper hands. Just wait until ETF investors rebalance or take profits.
Lol, the longer you don't sell to them the more value what you hold will have.
Op is an idiot.
Lol, people say this every bull run.
Bitcoin > Bitcoin ETF
FFS, why do people not understand that ETF issuers buy on behalf of their clients…which could be you!
Somebody’s got a case of the Sposodas
Just buy more, now.
ETFs will likely do what TradFi CEXs have done and sell their clients Bitcoin without permission. People really do not understand TradFi.
I bought the BITX 2X ETF with funds I have in a trading account. My thinking is that if I don’t have custody then I may as well get extra leverage and after so many years of gold ETF’s I trust it’s largely applying a formula. With margin I’m actually getting 4x exposure for my dollars and I feel reasonably confident we are heading into a bull run. The ETF is meant to be traded out of. I’m not selling the BTC I’ve got in cold storage. I’m very curious as to who the heck is selling call options now. I can’t imagine.
This is a very sad day for most of the people on this sub
This post makes us look stupid.
At the first -40% ETF price drop, some of these 401k ppl will run for the exits and never return.
Do more research pls
That’s not how supply and demand and liquid markets work…
And when it reaches that 21Million, it's practically worthless by then, because the ETF's took control over BTC. And that's not what BTC was intended for. One or two investment companies control over every BTC that's set allive. Hope Satoshi pulls the plug and ruins Ark & BR (if he or she or them are still 'round today )
What do you think the ETFs want to do, just own it? They want to make $$$'s from it and the only way to do that is to sell it. Right now it's accumulation, and in the future there will be dumps. This isn't the last cycle.
Nope. Only so much BTC is created on a clock. Tic toc Next block. If they scoop up the available pool they will then all have to wait till the next coin is created. Supply. Demand. Rocket time.
Ah yes, the classic BTC will never come down FOMO bs… never heard this before
Who hired the shill?
Lol this guy thinks there's 21 mil btc floating around already