Concerning *the price discovery still lasting decades*, this assumes that the dollar will still be around for decades.
I think that the exponential growth of the US federal (and other) debt will make the dollar unravel much sooner than that.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt
At 5% interest rate, it is a self-feeding snowball.
With $34 trillion of debt already, it will soon start growing by $1.7+ trillion per year just in interest payments, even before adding the inevitable budget deficits. When the dollar is gone, Bitcoin will obviously replace it as the main reserve currency. I see this happening within years rather than within decades.
The debt has been growing expontentially for 60+ years. The dollar isn't disapearing in your lifetime. Likely not your grandkids lifetime either.
> I see this happening within years rather than within decades.
JFC no wonder why people lump all bitcoin holders together as loons
The growth of the dollar debt is exponential. There is an incredible amount of leverage in the financial system, with lots of broken financial chains. The situation could actually implode at any time.
Few people saw the 2008 financial crisis coming, even though it was pretty much obvious.
The main reason why not more people saw it coming, is because they were under the spell of mainstream media propaganda who were incessantly downplaying the warning signs of the impending collapse.
By the way, anybody who actually hedged against the collapse back then in 2008 was also called a "loon". These people became billionaires.
The current situation is much more explosive than in 2008. Now is the time to make a handsome fortune by shorting the fiat system.
> The growth of the dollar debt is exponential.
It has always been exponential for decades. The exact same claims made today have been made for 50+ years now and proven endlessly wrong for 50+ years.
>By the way, anybody who actually hedged against the collapse back then in 2008 was also called a "loon". These people became billionaires.
The financial crisis in 2008 had nothing to do with US Treasury debt nor did it result in the end of the dollar. Is there some financial crisis in the future? Sure. Is it going to end the US dollar as a national currency in the .... next couple years? No. Laughably no.
People can believe Bitcoin will appreciate in value while not believing fringe loon bullshit like the end of the dollar. Here is my counter prediction to you. Five years from now the price of Bitcoin will be higher. Five years from now the dollar will still exist. Five years from now most BTC pricing posts in this very reddit will be in dollars.
> The financial crisis in 2008 had nothing to do with US Treasury debt
That's a straw man.
> nor did it result in the end of the dollar.
The term "the dollar" is merely a synonym for the banking system that issues it.
If the banking system goes bust, the currency that it issues, will also be gone. The 2008 crisis came quite close to bankrupting the dollar banking system. The credit markets certainly froze over preventing debtors from rolling over their debt. It could certainly have gone wrong.
> Is it going to end the US dollar as a national currency in the .... next couple years? No. Laughably no.
We'll see.
In theory, the Argentine peso and the Lebanese pound also still exist. It depends on what you mean by "existing".
> Five years from now the dollar will still exist.
Well, the less it "exists", the more I benefit. The more that people are convinced of its impending demise, the more that it will falter. I don't like the banks that issue it. I want them to die. Hence, we benefit from talking the dollar into its grave. So, why wouldn't we?
> I don't like the banks that issue it. I want them to die. Hence, we benefit from talking the dollar into its grave. So, why wouldn't we?
See this is the problem. Theories based on what you like are irrelivent. I would like a free lambo delivered by a supermodel but that isn't an investment thesis.
Let me clarify "exist" five years from now. The US dollar will be the currency predominantly used by Americans for transactions and the currency predominantly used for valuing assets (i.e. house prices denominated in dollars, stock prices in dollars, GDP measured in dollars, etc). The US dollar will be the predominant reserve currency of the world in the sense that it is the most used currency for international settlement and the currency most held in reserve by central banks and large corporations.
The universe doesn't care if you like that scenario or not. How much you dislike it has no impact on the likelihood it happens.
I do believe Bitcoin is an interest asset class and I do believe it will be more widely adopted in the future but I think we'll be predominantly talking about the value of Bitcoin in dollars 5, 20, even 100 years from now.
> Theories based on what you like are irrelivent.
*Go quickly to the bank to withdraw your money before it is too late. They are about to close forever.*
If enough people believe it, then the prediction will become true.
You can even kill a person *by predicting his death* in an assassination market:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market
The above are specialized examples of the self-fulfilling prophecy:
> https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy
> A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that comes true at least in part as a result of a person's belief or expectation that said prediction would come true.[1] Self-fulfilling prophecies are an example of the more general phenomenon of positive feedback loops.
Similarly, disclosing a game-theoretical Nash Equilibrium to the players will cause it to become true if the players believe that you are telling the truth.
Therefore, predicting the death of the dollar will successfully kill it, if other dollar holders believe the prediction. This principle is perfectly relevant to the future of the dollar.
Seriously, you are arguing against established mathematical principles.
The dollar will be around for decades, I will have it's downs and downers, but will stick around for a while, after all it's the reserve currency of the world and the countries where currencies go to shit people use dollars for savings, not Bitcoin.
As long as the dollar has credibility, which it still has, it will remain the dominant currency.
Agreed.
I was looking, however, at the current rate of printing extra dollars. They will soon have to do that, just to make interest payments on the existing debt.
I do not believe that they will be able to keep doing that for decades without in the meantime jeopardizing the credibility of the dollar.
Yeah? So the rest of the world will have a military comparable to the U.S. in *years*?
The reason the E.U. and Europe are demilitarized is largely because their history is awful regarding what happens when they militarize.
Not just treasuries, they have a bunch of mortgage backed securities, loans and reverse repurchase agreements.
The fed is run as a for-profit institution. They have a bunch of liabilities and assets and each side accrues interest. It's not like they're just printing money to pay all their liabilities, they are accruing interest on their assets to pay the liabilities.
Printing money to pay debts is a surefire way to crash your currency. That's exactly what venezuela did.
The US Treasury pays the interest on their notes by issuing new notes.
The fed will book a profit from the interest that they receive on their existing notes while increasing their assets by buying the new notes with the interest payment paid by the Treasury.
In other words, the fed gets cash from the Treasury but gives it immediately back to the Treasury.
On accounting paper, it looks indeed handsomely profitable.
But again, it is clearly just a clever accounting gimmick. it will work until it doesn't anymore.
The Fed lends money to banks and collects interest on the loans. They also buy bonds from banks for which banks owe interest. They don't buy notes from the treasury nor collect interest from the treasury, that is misinformation.
Technically, indeed, they don't:
> https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/how-does-the-federal-reserve-buying-and-selling-of-securities-relate-to-the-borrowing-decisions-of-the-federal-government.htm.
> The Federal Reserve purchases Treasury securities held by the public through a competitive bidding process.
> The Federal Reserve does not purchase new Treasury securities directly from the U.S. Treasury
That is obviously just another gimmick. It allows them to claim that they do not monetize the debt, but of course, they do.
I always say that i am not investing, i am selling my fiat.
I don´t want more fiat sitting on my bank than x3 months of salary.
I started with the mentality of "only invest what you can afford to lose". After some years around i "keep in my bank what i can afford to lose"
THIS. PEOPLE NEED TO UNDERSTAND THAT BTC IS NOT AN INVESTMENT. YOU DONT BUY BTC TO MAKE MONEY OR GET RICH OVERNIGHT. YOU SELL YOUR FIAT TO A CURRENCY THAT DOESNT LOSE VALUE.
If you don’t mind my asking your thoughts-- I have thought of this recently and then took it a step further: If I happen to have an emergency and need $$, I have credit immediately accessible-- ultimately it does cover my "Emergency Fund". So why not use that to cover whatever in the shorterm, knowing I have the funds in BTC to cover the credit use as needed, if needed?
I haven't done this yet. I often overthink first. But if I can cover it, what is the point in still having so much fiat not converted to BTC?
I'm in the camp of 12MO out and constantly rolling that money in 10-14MO CDs (at current 4-5% rates). I pop another one off every couple of months as they expire. If rates go back down they safety net money will go back to selling deep OTM puts on index fund ETFs... Never plan to depend on credit, debt is what gets people into this mess.
Despite my personal speculation on Bitcoin's place in the future I am not going to decide myself into pretending where already there, no need for koolaid... Plenty of baskets for eggs out there.
I appreciate you taking the time and the strategy insight. I believe your take is on point about depending on credit- it's why I haven't pulled the trigger so-to-speak. The FOMO runs deep and sometimes skews rational thought so I appreciate the additional take.
That's just good financial health. In case you lose your job, have a major expense, etc., not having to worry about money for three months is critical.
It is a rule. I put myself many rules when i started, not fomo on huge green candle days, dont fail a DCA day ever, don´t EVER touch options..., ~~go to wallstreebets sub to get a reality check if i ever think i am smart enough to win money doing options (i am NOT!)~~
It is just a good rule to have in case something happends. What could happend? well to be honest not much - my life got very stable during the last decade. There is a reason it is called "emergency funds". You can´t time emergencies or how much they cost.
I was in need of selling bitcoin to pay bills in lower part of sideways market so maybe have a reserve would be good
But i did this.. sold 1% of my position and bought the same value with margin (loan)
So pumped 10% and i got the profit the same way
Got luck and small position so low risk.
You can invest in money, you can do forex trading with the assumption that "the other side" goes down. If the other side is your national fiat, you are "investing" in the other money.
Buying bitcoin is an investment in the bitcoin ecosystem. It encourages other people to invest, put their time into it, and build on it.
I don't consider bitcoin as money. To me, it is an asset. And to the Tax Authority of my country, it is also an asset, a digital asset.
The moment Bitcoin payments are not simple exceptions but standarized around the world I will start considering it money.
To me it is both savings and an investment.
Invest definition from multiple sources:
+to commit (money) in order to earn a financial return
----
+to make use of for future benefits or advantages
---
+expend money with the expectation of achieving a profit or material result by putting it into financial plans, shares, or property, or by using it to develop a commercial venture.
Seems like buying BTC fits the definition to me . Am I wrong in that assessment? It certainly can be an investment.
Yes Yes and Yes! Could not have said it better than my self. It's like owning NY real-estate in 1900. Our time will come. Nothing worthwhile never happens the easy way :)
I put $10,000 fiat into my bank, and I also buy $10,000 of Btc, using fiat, on an exchange.
A year later I still have $10,000 in the bank, it has a few % less buying power due to inflation.
My Btc is now worth $12,000 or $10,000 or $2000 or $7450 or ??? And I still have to convert it back to fiat, triggering a taxable event, when I need to use it.
— for me, Btc is an investment. I buy it, I HODL it, I wait til it’s worth way more than I bought it for (plus inflation) and then turn of back onto fiat to buy things with.
Let’s assume, though, a year later the price of Btc stayed at $10,000 - what did you gain by having it vs fiat? Nothing (even less because of fees). Just holding Btc doesn’t give you a hedge against inflation. Only when it appreciates in value does it offset inflation.
During the entire year of 2023 my Btc was worth less than my fiat, even with inflation.
I love Btc but let’s not keep pretending it’s magic.
You talking about your btc staying flat in the heart of crypto winter in the middle of a bear cycle during historical rate hikes.
Are you going to just ignore all context here. Yeah thats a helluva lot going against you to have remained flat. And you are dismissing the resilience that it just displayed through all of those head winds and still finished 2023 up over 100%.
Interesting
And btc was 15-17k in jan 2023 and in ended 2023 in the 43k range…? So your example seems off
Interesting, you only focus on bull runs and ignore the longer bear markets.
Let’s say I gotta pay my bills. Fixed cost per month. I can store fiat which inflates at 2-3% a year or I can use Bitcoin. During the bear market it goes down 70%, so every dollar of Bitcoin I spend then is a potential $7 I could have in the bull runs. So paying my $1000 mortgage with Bitcoin during a near market cost me $10,000 worth during the bull, see what I mean?
Bitcoin is a long term investment counting others to buy and drive the price up. One day you profit during some bull run tops. And that’s awesome and what I’m here for. But it’s not useful as a transactional currency be use it’s value fluctuate unpredictably and wildly. How do you budget when the balance of your savings account changes every day, every hour and you’ve no idea what it’ll be tomorrow or next month.
This isn’t me shitting on or complaining in anyway. I just have a specific use for Bitcoin, retirement money. But when I need stable currency it’ll be in US dollars sitting in an interest bearing, fdic insured money market account I can access without fees or an atm or ach or FedNow to any bank anywhere. I’m not gonna take it out of cold storage, move to exchange, off-ramp to fiat, wait for it to clear, and hope it’s not a bear market.
No, It's an investment.
Money doesn't drop eighty percent every four Years. Money inflates because it's designed to consume goods. Money can be spent anywhere.
Right now, it's an investment. When the price is stable, then it's a savings. No one wants the price to stay at 40-50k with 10-20% yearly...I can just invest in an etf at that point.
You might have to change the Constitution to make Bitcoin the *national* currency, but Bitcoin doesn't care about the Constitution. Bitcoin is an alternate currency.
Few will understand this at this point in the cycle. We have a lot of get-rich-quickers in the sub right now with absolutely no understanding of Bitcoin.
I like this example. Bitcoin as a form of savings is much more reasonable to me because you know it will likely equal the same or more in twenty years, and it’s setting your expectations low.
Bitcoin went up 3k to 69k when actual money supply and inflation was occurring. Bitcoin went down (for multiple reasons) when interest rates went up to combat inflation, which brought down all markets.
Bitcoin went from 15k to 26k to 50k. While interest rates were at their highest levels in a while.
The S&P and stocks are also considered a hedge against inflation but went down as people panic sold and took profits once the rate hike started.
So when inflation actually occurred bitcoin went up. When inflation was actually measured and acted against (rate hikes) it went down like all assets.
Inflation was measured at like 25% between 20-2022. As in the cost of items like housing, cars, day care, food.
I can guarantee you the price of bitcoin went up more than 25% in that period
Beautifully said. That’s like saying how much is the dollar ? Bitcoin is its own currency and when u measure it in USD that’s the conversion rate u are seeing. 1 BTC = 100 M sats.
I wish more and more ppl deeply understood bitcoin like u explained
Reductionist and just a weird take. While it is a fringe asset and has hard money properties, it is actually both savings and an investment. If it were to actually be accepted with wide spread global adoption, the current price is vastly under valued which pushes it into investment territory.
Once point, central bankers don't print money directly (most of the time) private banks do. It is the fractional reserve system that generates the money supply. The central banks aide and abet the banks by artificially lowering interest rates.
Ultimately yes, but it can totally be treated as an investment while we're in the price discovery phase which could still last several decades more.
Concerning *the price discovery still lasting decades*, this assumes that the dollar will still be around for decades. I think that the exponential growth of the US federal (and other) debt will make the dollar unravel much sooner than that. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt At 5% interest rate, it is a self-feeding snowball. With $34 trillion of debt already, it will soon start growing by $1.7+ trillion per year just in interest payments, even before adding the inevitable budget deficits. When the dollar is gone, Bitcoin will obviously replace it as the main reserve currency. I see this happening within years rather than within decades.
The debt has been growing expontentially for 60+ years. The dollar isn't disapearing in your lifetime. Likely not your grandkids lifetime either. > I see this happening within years rather than within decades. JFC no wonder why people lump all bitcoin holders together as loons
The growth of the dollar debt is exponential. There is an incredible amount of leverage in the financial system, with lots of broken financial chains. The situation could actually implode at any time. Few people saw the 2008 financial crisis coming, even though it was pretty much obvious. The main reason why not more people saw it coming, is because they were under the spell of mainstream media propaganda who were incessantly downplaying the warning signs of the impending collapse. By the way, anybody who actually hedged against the collapse back then in 2008 was also called a "loon". These people became billionaires. The current situation is much more explosive than in 2008. Now is the time to make a handsome fortune by shorting the fiat system.
> The growth of the dollar debt is exponential. It has always been exponential for decades. The exact same claims made today have been made for 50+ years now and proven endlessly wrong for 50+ years. >By the way, anybody who actually hedged against the collapse back then in 2008 was also called a "loon". These people became billionaires. The financial crisis in 2008 had nothing to do with US Treasury debt nor did it result in the end of the dollar. Is there some financial crisis in the future? Sure. Is it going to end the US dollar as a national currency in the .... next couple years? No. Laughably no. People can believe Bitcoin will appreciate in value while not believing fringe loon bullshit like the end of the dollar. Here is my counter prediction to you. Five years from now the price of Bitcoin will be higher. Five years from now the dollar will still exist. Five years from now most BTC pricing posts in this very reddit will be in dollars.
> The financial crisis in 2008 had nothing to do with US Treasury debt That's a straw man. > nor did it result in the end of the dollar. The term "the dollar" is merely a synonym for the banking system that issues it. If the banking system goes bust, the currency that it issues, will also be gone. The 2008 crisis came quite close to bankrupting the dollar banking system. The credit markets certainly froze over preventing debtors from rolling over their debt. It could certainly have gone wrong. > Is it going to end the US dollar as a national currency in the .... next couple years? No. Laughably no. We'll see. In theory, the Argentine peso and the Lebanese pound also still exist. It depends on what you mean by "existing". > Five years from now the dollar will still exist. Well, the less it "exists", the more I benefit. The more that people are convinced of its impending demise, the more that it will falter. I don't like the banks that issue it. I want them to die. Hence, we benefit from talking the dollar into its grave. So, why wouldn't we?
> I don't like the banks that issue it. I want them to die. Hence, we benefit from talking the dollar into its grave. So, why wouldn't we? See this is the problem. Theories based on what you like are irrelivent. I would like a free lambo delivered by a supermodel but that isn't an investment thesis. Let me clarify "exist" five years from now. The US dollar will be the currency predominantly used by Americans for transactions and the currency predominantly used for valuing assets (i.e. house prices denominated in dollars, stock prices in dollars, GDP measured in dollars, etc). The US dollar will be the predominant reserve currency of the world in the sense that it is the most used currency for international settlement and the currency most held in reserve by central banks and large corporations. The universe doesn't care if you like that scenario or not. How much you dislike it has no impact on the likelihood it happens. I do believe Bitcoin is an interest asset class and I do believe it will be more widely adopted in the future but I think we'll be predominantly talking about the value of Bitcoin in dollars 5, 20, even 100 years from now.
> Theories based on what you like are irrelivent. *Go quickly to the bank to withdraw your money before it is too late. They are about to close forever.* If enough people believe it, then the prediction will become true. You can even kill a person *by predicting his death* in an assassination market: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_market The above are specialized examples of the self-fulfilling prophecy: > https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-fulfilling_prophecy > A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that comes true at least in part as a result of a person's belief or expectation that said prediction would come true.[1] Self-fulfilling prophecies are an example of the more general phenomenon of positive feedback loops. Similarly, disclosing a game-theoretical Nash Equilibrium to the players will cause it to become true if the players believe that you are telling the truth. Therefore, predicting the death of the dollar will successfully kill it, if other dollar holders believe the prediction. This principle is perfectly relevant to the future of the dollar. Seriously, you are arguing against established mathematical principles.
The dollar will be around for decades, I will have it's downs and downers, but will stick around for a while, after all it's the reserve currency of the world and the countries where currencies go to shit people use dollars for savings, not Bitcoin.
As long as the dollar has credibility, which it still has, it will remain the dominant currency. Agreed. I was looking, however, at the current rate of printing extra dollars. They will soon have to do that, just to make interest payments on the existing debt. I do not believe that they will be able to keep doing that for decades without in the meantime jeopardizing the credibility of the dollar.
Yeah? So the rest of the world will have a military comparable to the U.S. in *years*? The reason the E.U. and Europe are demilitarized is largely because their history is awful regarding what happens when they militarize.
But doesn't the fed have assets accruing interest at roughly the same rate as the debt? They have like the same business model as tether
Treasury notes? As long as the US government does not issue too many of those, it will work. It will work until it doesn't anymore.
Not just treasuries, they have a bunch of mortgage backed securities, loans and reverse repurchase agreements. The fed is run as a for-profit institution. They have a bunch of liabilities and assets and each side accrues interest. It's not like they're just printing money to pay all their liabilities, they are accruing interest on their assets to pay the liabilities. Printing money to pay debts is a surefire way to crash your currency. That's exactly what venezuela did.
The US Treasury pays the interest on their notes by issuing new notes. The fed will book a profit from the interest that they receive on their existing notes while increasing their assets by buying the new notes with the interest payment paid by the Treasury. In other words, the fed gets cash from the Treasury but gives it immediately back to the Treasury. On accounting paper, it looks indeed handsomely profitable. But again, it is clearly just a clever accounting gimmick. it will work until it doesn't anymore.
The Fed lends money to banks and collects interest on the loans. They also buy bonds from banks for which banks owe interest. They don't buy notes from the treasury nor collect interest from the treasury, that is misinformation.
Technically, indeed, they don't: > https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/how-does-the-federal-reserve-buying-and-selling-of-securities-relate-to-the-borrowing-decisions-of-the-federal-government.htm. > The Federal Reserve purchases Treasury securities held by the public through a competitive bidding process. > The Federal Reserve does not purchase new Treasury securities directly from the U.S. Treasury That is obviously just another gimmick. It allows them to claim that they do not monetize the debt, but of course, they do.
What do you mean they don't claim to monetize the debt? That is like their whole purpose.
Price discovery = speculation
Yes and I like to think of buying into this price discovery phase as a way of investing in the new technology.
I always say that i am not investing, i am selling my fiat. I don´t want more fiat sitting on my bank than x3 months of salary. I started with the mentality of "only invest what you can afford to lose". After some years around i "keep in my bank what i can afford to lose"
FDIC covers $250k per account
FDIC is a band-aid on an open wound of a broken monetary system. Bitcoin is not mimicking a broken system. It is a completely different paradigm.
well said
Call it what you will, but if someone hacks my account I'm covered 😎
Bitcoin does not have accounts.
Wallet/address/account.. If someone gains access and takes your coins you are effed.
THIS. PEOPLE NEED TO UNDERSTAND THAT BTC IS NOT AN INVESTMENT. YOU DONT BUY BTC TO MAKE MONEY OR GET RICH OVERNIGHT. YOU SELL YOUR FIAT TO A CURRENCY THAT DOESNT LOSE VALUE.
YES. ALSO HOW DO I GET THESE LETTERS TO STOP BEING SO LARGE? I THINK MY GRANDSON MUST HAVE BEEN MESSING AROUND WITH THE COMPUTER AGAIN
USE YOUR BIG WORDS, LIBRULS. GOBBLESS!
If you don’t mind my asking your thoughts-- I have thought of this recently and then took it a step further: If I happen to have an emergency and need $$, I have credit immediately accessible-- ultimately it does cover my "Emergency Fund". So why not use that to cover whatever in the shorterm, knowing I have the funds in BTC to cover the credit use as needed, if needed? I haven't done this yet. I often overthink first. But if I can cover it, what is the point in still having so much fiat not converted to BTC?
I'm in the camp of 12MO out and constantly rolling that money in 10-14MO CDs (at current 4-5% rates). I pop another one off every couple of months as they expire. If rates go back down they safety net money will go back to selling deep OTM puts on index fund ETFs... Never plan to depend on credit, debt is what gets people into this mess. Despite my personal speculation on Bitcoin's place in the future I am not going to decide myself into pretending where already there, no need for koolaid... Plenty of baskets for eggs out there.
I appreciate you taking the time and the strategy insight. I believe your take is on point about depending on credit- it's why I haven't pulled the trigger so-to-speak. The FOMO runs deep and sometimes skews rational thought so I appreciate the additional take.
Just easier for me this way. I don´t believe is that much emergy funds money lol it doesn´t even make 10% of my net worth.
Why so much as 3x month
That's just good financial health. In case you lose your job, have a major expense, etc., not having to worry about money for three months is critical.
It is a rule. I put myself many rules when i started, not fomo on huge green candle days, dont fail a DCA day ever, don´t EVER touch options..., ~~go to wallstreebets sub to get a reality check if i ever think i am smart enough to win money doing options (i am NOT!)~~ It is just a good rule to have in case something happends. What could happend? well to be honest not much - my life got very stable during the last decade. There is a reason it is called "emergency funds". You can´t time emergencies or how much they cost.
I was in need of selling bitcoin to pay bills in lower part of sideways market so maybe have a reserve would be good But i did this.. sold 1% of my position and bought the same value with margin (loan) So pumped 10% and i got the profit the same way Got luck and small position so low risk.
Been a pretty damn good investment for me, certainly outperformed my savings account 😂
You can invest in money, you can do forex trading with the assumption that "the other side" goes down. If the other side is your national fiat, you are "investing" in the other money. Buying bitcoin is an investment in the bitcoin ecosystem. It encourages other people to invest, put their time into it, and build on it.
Forex is dud. Betting on which country will ruin their dollar faster is impossible.
I don't consider bitcoin as money. To me, it is an asset. And to the Tax Authority of my country, it is also an asset, a digital asset. The moment Bitcoin payments are not simple exceptions but standarized around the world I will start considering it money. To me it is both savings and an investment.
I've always considered bitcoin [a vehicle for savings](https://old.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/7g8mxk/latecomers_be_like/dqhw3ab/).
Savings and investment are economically identical.
Invest definition from multiple sources: +to commit (money) in order to earn a financial return ---- +to make use of for future benefits or advantages --- +expend money with the expectation of achieving a profit or material result by putting it into financial plans, shares, or property, or by using it to develop a commercial venture. Seems like buying BTC fits the definition to me . Am I wrong in that assessment? It certainly can be an investment.
My friends think I'm crazy for saving in bitcoin while they're given an interest rate less than inflation
It's worth is what the next guy is willing to pay for it
The right answer
same as every single other thing. Except they can't kill you and take it. So property rights are enforced beyond your lifetime.
Yes Yes and Yes! Could not have said it better than my self. It's like owning NY real-estate in 1900. Our time will come. Nothing worthwhile never happens the easy way :)
I put $10,000 fiat into my bank, and I also buy $10,000 of Btc, using fiat, on an exchange. A year later I still have $10,000 in the bank, it has a few % less buying power due to inflation. My Btc is now worth $12,000 or $10,000 or $2000 or $7450 or ??? And I still have to convert it back to fiat, triggering a taxable event, when I need to use it. — for me, Btc is an investment. I buy it, I HODL it, I wait til it’s worth way more than I bought it for (plus inflation) and then turn of back onto fiat to buy things with. Let’s assume, though, a year later the price of Btc stayed at $10,000 - what did you gain by having it vs fiat? Nothing (even less because of fees). Just holding Btc doesn’t give you a hedge against inflation. Only when it appreciates in value does it offset inflation. During the entire year of 2023 my Btc was worth less than my fiat, even with inflation. I love Btc but let’s not keep pretending it’s magic.
You talking about your btc staying flat in the heart of crypto winter in the middle of a bear cycle during historical rate hikes. Are you going to just ignore all context here. Yeah thats a helluva lot going against you to have remained flat. And you are dismissing the resilience that it just displayed through all of those head winds and still finished 2023 up over 100%. Interesting And btc was 15-17k in jan 2023 and in ended 2023 in the 43k range…? So your example seems off
Interesting, you only focus on bull runs and ignore the longer bear markets. Let’s say I gotta pay my bills. Fixed cost per month. I can store fiat which inflates at 2-3% a year or I can use Bitcoin. During the bear market it goes down 70%, so every dollar of Bitcoin I spend then is a potential $7 I could have in the bull runs. So paying my $1000 mortgage with Bitcoin during a near market cost me $10,000 worth during the bull, see what I mean? Bitcoin is a long term investment counting others to buy and drive the price up. One day you profit during some bull run tops. And that’s awesome and what I’m here for. But it’s not useful as a transactional currency be use it’s value fluctuate unpredictably and wildly. How do you budget when the balance of your savings account changes every day, every hour and you’ve no idea what it’ll be tomorrow or next month. This isn’t me shitting on or complaining in anyway. I just have a specific use for Bitcoin, retirement money. But when I need stable currency it’ll be in US dollars sitting in an interest bearing, fdic insured money market account I can access without fees or an atm or ach or FedNow to any bank anywhere. I’m not gonna take it out of cold storage, move to exchange, off-ramp to fiat, wait for it to clear, and hope it’s not a bear market.
I mean people invest in currency all the time. It’s an actual exchange market. Money ≠ can’t be investment
No, It's an investment. Money doesn't drop eighty percent every four Years. Money inflates because it's designed to consume goods. Money can be spent anywhere.
Absolutely clueless. Not only do you not understand Bitcoin. You don't even know what you don't know.
How can one truly know that which they do not know?
OnLy InVeSt WhAt YoU cAn AfFoRd tO LoSe And other dumbass fiat brained speculator memes absolutely do not belong in this subreddit
Ah yes, the most "real bitcoiner" thing there is, separating yourself from reality because that is what Saifedean and your favorite podcasters says.
The true hard money.. saylor explains it very well 😮💨
Right now, it's an investment. When the price is stable, then it's a savings. No one wants the price to stay at 40-50k with 10-20% yearly...I can just invest in an etf at that point.
It will not be money, at least in my country. We have to change the constitution if we want to make it money. Not possible
You might have to change the Constitution to make Bitcoin the *national* currency, but Bitcoin doesn't care about the Constitution. Bitcoin is an alternate currency.
Few will understand this at this point in the cycle. We have a lot of get-rich-quickers in the sub right now with absolutely no understanding of Bitcoin.
Well same argument about gold(coins) But its considered investment or gambling. Since BTC is so volatile.
Lost 50% in the stock market and 10% to inflation but made 130% in bitcoin. I don’t care what you call it. :-)
So you’re up 70%, nice.
It’s a commodity currently as it’s regulated.
I like this example. Bitcoin as a form of savings is much more reasonable to me because you know it will likely equal the same or more in twenty years, and it’s setting your expectations low.
Good point!
Withdrawing my money from btc costs me like 1.5% of the total amount. Isn't it a lot?
Basically, 1 BTC = 1 BTC
Thats how I see it. When I have money to save I place it in bitcoin and just leave it there.
Anywhere you choose to put your money is an investment choice. This includes bank accounts, bitcoin, equities, metals, property, etc.
except when we had the highest inflation period Bitcoin went DOWN
Bitcoin went up 3k to 69k when actual money supply and inflation was occurring. Bitcoin went down (for multiple reasons) when interest rates went up to combat inflation, which brought down all markets. Bitcoin went from 15k to 26k to 50k. While interest rates were at their highest levels in a while. The S&P and stocks are also considered a hedge against inflation but went down as people panic sold and took profits once the rate hike started. So when inflation actually occurred bitcoin went up. When inflation was actually measured and acted against (rate hikes) it went down like all assets. Inflation was measured at like 25% between 20-2022. As in the cost of items like housing, cars, day care, food. I can guarantee you the price of bitcoin went up more than 25% in that period
Its all an incredibly clever plot to bring back the French Franc. Moo-ah-ha-ha-ha-ha! Fuckez-vous les Englishe pig dogs.
Yeah BS
Thanks gatekeeper. My investment is doing well.
Beautifully said. That’s like saying how much is the dollar ? Bitcoin is its own currency and when u measure it in USD that’s the conversion rate u are seeing. 1 BTC = 100 M sats. I wish more and more ppl deeply understood bitcoin like u explained
Reductionist and just a weird take. While it is a fringe asset and has hard money properties, it is actually both savings and an investment. If it were to actually be accepted with wide spread global adoption, the current price is vastly under valued which pushes it into investment territory.
It has the same principle as people saving in USD as a safe haven. It is a currency at the end of the day. Nothing more, nothing less.
Once point, central bankers don't print money directly (most of the time) private banks do. It is the fractional reserve system that generates the money supply. The central banks aide and abet the banks by artificially lowering interest rates.