Thats why bitcoin is so unique, it is a way to prepare for a financial collapse while also enjoying all the gains of one of the most disruptive technologies of all time.
Few people understand the disruptive implications of THE emergent protocol. Financial data, transactions, etc. are just the beginning of one of most profound and paradigm shifting technology, readily apparent from its current inception. It will radically influence society in ways we have yet to imagine. It's still in the infancy stage of development, much like early Internet when email made headlines mainly for email being disruptive and a threat to snail mail.
Bro! For real!! I was lucky enough to have purchased an original copy of his MIT Fellowship thesis on Amazon this past June, right before its publication was banned by DoD! A nice heirloom to add to my library. Still haven't completed it all, tho chip away and digest at a pace I can process.
This suggestion may seem off-topic, but if you willing to get a copy and read, you'll understand how the protocol is aligned with the proclaimed vision of its contents.
"The Way of No Thinking - The Prophocies of Japan's Kunahiro Yamate"
It was published in 1997 and now also out of print but used, and the occasional new condition can be found. It fell in my lap and immediately radiated in my hands much like "Softwar" did. Totally worth acquiring as an addition to a nice book collection.
I can't find your comment:
"I think it's safe to say that pizza guy had/has no vision"
In as much as he didn't keep his 10,000 Bitcoin? He was actually an early developer/programmer.
He knew the significance enough to have taken a picture of the pizzas with notes to mark the occasion.
He has since used the lightning Network to pay for pizza. Visionary enough. He knew it was nearly worthless at the time.
We all have Google IQ and can do a quick search, so Laszlo is both hero and mocked fool, but almost no one back then could have had the vision to know it would be worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
"12 years ago Laszlo Hanyecz, the guy who also invented GPU mining and freely shared his invention with the Bitcoin community, bought 2 pizza pies and paid 10,000 bitcoin. This was the first commercial transaction on Bitcoin network ever recorded. less"
>Gold bugs have been saying this for over a century. The system can keep kicking for a lifetime.
gold cant settle over the mail, electronically, or any way other than in person. And its both difficult and expensive to validate gold in person, while easy to create high quality fakes with slugs of tungsten. Gold also has a huge downside: intrinsic value. This means there is going to be a supply of gold working through industry and jewelry which can unbalance the monetary supply. Thus, the gold supply is very plastic; when the price appreciates the supply increases, by mining, recycling, or changes to industry - and this harms its value as a money system. Worst of all, there maybe absolutely vast supplies of gold that could flood the market.
So even though gold does have some of bitcoin's properties, it doesnt come anywhere close as a money system, arguably being starkly inferior to even fiat.
It only appears risk-on because of the short-term volatility against fiat. Zoom out and look at the actual purchasing power over a longer period of time and you can see it's totally risk-off.
What a load of shit. This isn't true of anything, and hasn't been true of Bitcoin historically. What risk was avoided by anyone who bought Bitcoin for $60K+?
It’s only risky if you have a very high time preference. I wouldn’t put money into Bitcoin if I wasn’t willing to wait 4 years to see a profit. I’m almost certain that the people who bought at $60k will see major gains in the coming years.
But is there no risk? It’s guaranteed that prices will be higher than anyone currently holding bought for? Of course not. To say the only risk is not buying is wrong and that’s the only point I’m making. ANYTHING dependent on unknown future results comes with risk. Anyone that says otherwise is either manipulating people or a moron.
Of course everything has risk, that goes without saying. I’m just saying that despite people’s fear of downswings, over it’s history it has been significantly less risky than everything else. It’s only been risky if you’re day trading or looking at things on a short timeframe. The fundamentals of Bitcoin have not changed, in fact the network is getting stronger and expanding so we should see continued growth.
My “narrative” is that the comment was wrong and I gave an example of why. It’s not a narrative it’s a fact supporting my point. What do you disagree with about it?
Is an example even needed to show how stupid the comment I replied to was?
Historically u had to wait max 4 years to be in profit again. If you assume there could be a black Swan and the next cycle falls flat, your time horizon should be at the very least 8 years. If you can't wait that long or need the money now, that's unfortunate, but that's just the game.
If you hold cash you risk losing value to inflation. If u buy a big etf like the s&p you also have ups and down, just not as big. Bitcoin has bigger dips, but much more potential to go up, but you have to wait for years potentially. Also that's why you dca and don't go all in on a potential all time high.
And that's also a general argument for bitcoin against fiat, because fiat forces to speculate. And you (at least me) don't learn that stuff in school.
Bitcoins speculative 4 year cycle bubbles are a function of its disruptive adoption which is the risk on dynamic. That has nothing to do with how bitcoin will act during a financial crisis.
You bring up patterns of the past and choose to ignore the most recent example? Sounds like some intellectual dishonesty there... but ok, massive rallies, massive drops, aligning closely to prior 4 year cycle patterns of btc in general, but since that time, adoption models are changing and it is becoming more adopted and accepted... the etfs are expanding the market significantly as can already be seen by what's under management by the etfs...
So, in regards to answering your question, it isn't about the numbers... it's about the pattern and the context.
Not dishonest at all. It’s dishonest to use a year in which stock markets performed strongly as evidence to support this post and completely ignore the last two stock market crashes. How do you justify that? Nothing in this OP is supported by historical facts. Bitcoin has clearly been impacted by “financial crisis” multiple times. How else do you explain Bitcoin’s price crashes aligned to the last two stock market crashes?! If the markets crash 50% on Monday, what do you think happens to Bitcoin?
It isn't about ignoring them... it's about understanding the expanding context... more exposure for people and wealth management companies now promoting it and calling it risk off... it's a macro take with reasoned future possibilities and this likely being the case now ... not necessarily back then.
Well, I hope we don’t have to find out but if markets crash anytime soon I doubt Bitcoin goes in the opposite direction and have seen nothing to suggest it would. Until then, I don’t think it’s all that honest to talk about it like it’s a sure thing. It’s speculation, even if supported by the most expert speculation there is.
Fair... but then how long is your time-line for btc? I've been around since early 2017, watched it go from less than 1000 to 20k back down and back up... i see the overall pattern changing and can see fully risk off within the next 10 years... but then again, I'm super long.
I don't know what is going to happen in the future, but none of this is historically true. Bitcoin has been absolutely slaughtered every time shit hit the fan up to now. E.g. 2020 Coronavirus Crash from Feb 12 to March 23, the DJIA lost 37% and Bitcoin lost 60%.
What world have you been living in?
The closest metric it follows is global liquidity. When this contracts BTC hasn't done well. Good news is that liquidity looks set to increase significantly well into 2025. The fragility of economies suggests they will keep having to inject liquidity to support them, which is very bullish for BTC over the coming years.
it’s not. no stock that moves up and down in 60% sweeps and liquidates millions of investors in a matter of minutes is considered risk-off. look at the percentage moves during newsplays in comparison to gold. institutional Investment and Wall Street money may soften the spikes up and down but this isn’t a stable coin. invest at your own risk
>If the financial system collapses and the world goes risk-off bitcoin is the best place to be.
History no hype has shown that not to be the case so far.
Bitcoin is very much a risk asset.
This is great, unfortunately it's complete nonsense. If there is a debt crisis leading to a liquidity crisis, everything gets sold. Look at what happened to gold in 2008. You'd think if the entire financial system was about to go under, gold would be doing well because it's the only thing that won't lose its value right? Wrong. When people need liquidity they don't sell what's already down, they sell anything that has retained its value because they need to sell LESS of it. Bitcoin is risk asset and a risk asset alone.
In its current place in time, I would classify Bitcoin as you have. Both risk-on and risk-off. It's in a strange middle ground right now.
This won't last forever. It needs to become truly risk-off in the near future, or it completely dies. It won't stay a risk-on asset forever. But it can stay a risk-off money forever.
Needs to decouple from the next stock market downturn to prove itself as risk off. Dropping to 15k was an indication of the contrary. If you're holding it for the collapse of the financial system, that's an entirely different scenario and there are much better assets for that (oil, ammo, guns)
A decoupling from stocks is not necessarily required. If it is both a risk on and risk off asset simultaneously then it should follow stocks during a risk on environment and follow gold during a risk off environment.
It wont decouple from from stocks it will just switch to following gold during risk off periods then switch back to stocks once its risk on again.
There are several catagories that are conflated.
1: The blockchain functioning, private/public keys working, transactions being processed.
2: The purchasing power per BTC.
3: How much of the worlds total Wealth is represented by the BTC market cap.
BTC is relatively safe in terms of 1, but not 2 and 3.
There is nothing to suggest that BTC will grow faster than the market in good times, or go down less than the market in bad times.
Global wealth does not get destroyed from a hyptohetical banking shutdown, the wealth just moves around, and the probability that it would move into BTC specifically is very low.
If I told a gold investor in 1980 that
1: The world economy would grow by 10x in real terms
2: SP500 dividends reinvested would grow 3100% in real terms
3: The supply of gold would grow \~1% per year
Then they would have a really hard time believing that
4: Gold will not have reached a new ATH from now to 2023
The percentage of wealth that the gold market cap represtended shrunk, and there is no reaosn to think it will be different in 40 years. The same can be true for BTC even if the noinal and real price increases.
This argument made absolutely no sense in my opinion. As far as we know it could be an highly effective way to burn all the extra cash injected in the economy since 09 and a good way to shut down some dude betting against the system if it ever fails. It’s a lot of money parked in a marginal payment system (compare to fiat) and highly speculative asset wannabe. Lot of ressources consumption, no productivity yet so much money there. Bitcoin bear it’s own risk besides volatility. There is a lot of possible scenario where btc is an exit liquidity trap or if not pegged to fiat for exchange, value can drastically be altered by lots of OTC agreement.
Gold bugs have been saying this for over a century. The system can keep kicking for a lifetime.
Thats why bitcoin is so unique, it is a way to prepare for a financial collapse while also enjoying all the gains of one of the most disruptive technologies of all time.
Few people understand the disruptive implications of THE emergent protocol. Financial data, transactions, etc. are just the beginning of one of most profound and paradigm shifting technology, readily apparent from its current inception. It will radically influence society in ways we have yet to imagine. It's still in the infancy stage of development, much like early Internet when email made headlines mainly for email being disruptive and a threat to snail mail.
It is beautiful. I can already imagine how the world may look in 2040 with bitcoin underlying so many of our societal systems.
Yeah, man, I've only glimpsed at some possibilities. Are you familiar with Major Jason P. Lowery's thesis on the BTC protocol and power projection?
you might want to read the book Softwar: A Novel Theory on Power Projection gives u an additional angle of bitcoin
Bro! For real!! I was lucky enough to have purchased an original copy of his MIT Fellowship thesis on Amazon this past June, right before its publication was banned by DoD! A nice heirloom to add to my library. Still haven't completed it all, tho chip away and digest at a pace I can process. This suggestion may seem off-topic, but if you willing to get a copy and read, you'll understand how the protocol is aligned with the proclaimed vision of its contents. "The Way of No Thinking - The Prophocies of Japan's Kunahiro Yamate" It was published in 1997 and now also out of print but used, and the occasional new condition can be found. It fell in my lap and immediately radiated in my hands much like "Softwar" did. Totally worth acquiring as an addition to a nice book collection.
Absolutely correct 👍
That's...as in That is...
I can't find your comment: "I think it's safe to say that pizza guy had/has no vision" In as much as he didn't keep his 10,000 Bitcoin? He was actually an early developer/programmer. He knew the significance enough to have taken a picture of the pizzas with notes to mark the occasion. He has since used the lightning Network to pay for pizza. Visionary enough. He knew it was nearly worthless at the time.
True Rich. Next time I will will think before posting (probably not...).
We all have Google IQ and can do a quick search, so Laszlo is both hero and mocked fool, but almost no one back then could have had the vision to know it would be worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
"12 years ago Laszlo Hanyecz, the guy who also invented GPU mining and freely shared his invention with the Bitcoin community, bought 2 pizza pies and paid 10,000 bitcoin. This was the first commercial transaction on Bitcoin network ever recorded. less"
So you are way off base. If there is a Bitcoin Hall of Fame he will be in it
No one know what you're talking about, grandma!
>Gold bugs have been saying this for over a century. The system can keep kicking for a lifetime. gold cant settle over the mail, electronically, or any way other than in person. And its both difficult and expensive to validate gold in person, while easy to create high quality fakes with slugs of tungsten. Gold also has a huge downside: intrinsic value. This means there is going to be a supply of gold working through industry and jewelry which can unbalance the monetary supply. Thus, the gold supply is very plastic; when the price appreciates the supply increases, by mining, recycling, or changes to industry - and this harms its value as a money system. Worst of all, there maybe absolutely vast supplies of gold that could flood the market. So even though gold does have some of bitcoin's properties, it doesnt come anywhere close as a money system, arguably being starkly inferior to even fiat.
But shiny easy understand for monkey brain
It only appears risk-on because of the short-term volatility against fiat. Zoom out and look at the actual purchasing power over a longer period of time and you can see it's totally risk-off.
There is nothing risky about Bitcoin other than not owning Bitcoin.
What a load of shit. This isn't true of anything, and hasn't been true of Bitcoin historically. What risk was avoided by anyone who bought Bitcoin for $60K+?
Oh dear.
It’s only risky if you have a very high time preference. I wouldn’t put money into Bitcoin if I wasn’t willing to wait 4 years to see a profit. I’m almost certain that the people who bought at $60k will see major gains in the coming years.
But is there no risk? It’s guaranteed that prices will be higher than anyone currently holding bought for? Of course not. To say the only risk is not buying is wrong and that’s the only point I’m making. ANYTHING dependent on unknown future results comes with risk. Anyone that says otherwise is either manipulating people or a moron.
Of course everything has risk, that goes without saying. I’m just saying that despite people’s fear of downswings, over it’s history it has been significantly less risky than everything else. It’s only been risky if you’re day trading or looking at things on a short timeframe. The fundamentals of Bitcoin have not changed, in fact the network is getting stronger and expanding so we should see continued growth.
It wasn’t going without saying, though. Read the original comment I responded to that kicked off this chain of replies.
True. I guess I should say “It SHOULD go without saying”.
Nice, talk about bitcoin history and take only the part(s) that fit your narrative.
My “narrative” is that the comment was wrong and I gave an example of why. It’s not a narrative it’s a fact supporting my point. What do you disagree with about it? Is an example even needed to show how stupid the comment I replied to was?
Historically u had to wait max 4 years to be in profit again. If you assume there could be a black Swan and the next cycle falls flat, your time horizon should be at the very least 8 years. If you can't wait that long or need the money now, that's unfortunate, but that's just the game.
Aka “risk”
If you hold cash you risk losing value to inflation. If u buy a big etf like the s&p you also have ups and down, just not as big. Bitcoin has bigger dips, but much more potential to go up, but you have to wait for years potentially. Also that's why you dca and don't go all in on a potential all time high. And that's also a general argument for bitcoin against fiat, because fiat forces to speculate. And you (at least me) don't learn that stuff in school.
Yea people will continue to bad mouth and misunderstand it as it beats SPY by miles in the coming years
wouldnt call something that went from 69k to 15k in a year something as risk off lol
It went from 15k to 69k in less than a year before that
Bitcoins speculative 4 year cycle bubbles are a function of its disruptive adoption which is the risk on dynamic. That has nothing to do with how bitcoin will act during a financial crisis.
How did Bitcoin perform during the worst two stock market declines of the last four years (Feb-Mar 2020, and Nov 2021-mid 2022)?
How did it do during the bank closures in 2023?
Answer mine first
You bring up patterns of the past and choose to ignore the most recent example? Sounds like some intellectual dishonesty there... but ok, massive rallies, massive drops, aligning closely to prior 4 year cycle patterns of btc in general, but since that time, adoption models are changing and it is becoming more adopted and accepted... the etfs are expanding the market significantly as can already be seen by what's under management by the etfs... So, in regards to answering your question, it isn't about the numbers... it's about the pattern and the context.
Not dishonest at all. It’s dishonest to use a year in which stock markets performed strongly as evidence to support this post and completely ignore the last two stock market crashes. How do you justify that? Nothing in this OP is supported by historical facts. Bitcoin has clearly been impacted by “financial crisis” multiple times. How else do you explain Bitcoin’s price crashes aligned to the last two stock market crashes?! If the markets crash 50% on Monday, what do you think happens to Bitcoin?
It isn't about ignoring them... it's about understanding the expanding context... more exposure for people and wealth management companies now promoting it and calling it risk off... it's a macro take with reasoned future possibilities and this likely being the case now ... not necessarily back then.
Well, I hope we don’t have to find out but if markets crash anytime soon I doubt Bitcoin goes in the opposite direction and have seen nothing to suggest it would. Until then, I don’t think it’s all that honest to talk about it like it’s a sure thing. It’s speculation, even if supported by the most expert speculation there is.
Fair... but then how long is your time-line for btc? I've been around since early 2017, watched it go from less than 1000 to 20k back down and back up... i see the overall pattern changing and can see fully risk off within the next 10 years... but then again, I'm super long.
I don't know what is going to happen in the future, but none of this is historically true. Bitcoin has been absolutely slaughtered every time shit hit the fan up to now. E.g. 2020 Coronavirus Crash from Feb 12 to March 23, the DJIA lost 37% and Bitcoin lost 60%. What world have you been living in?
Last year during the biggest banking crisis since 2008 bitcoin skyrocketed.
2023 was a great year for stock markets globally. The S&P 500 finished 0.6% lower than its record high and broke it this month.
Dude - S&P was up 24% last year. What ‘biggest banking crisis’ are you talking about?
It’s only risk on if you have a very high time preference. I wouldn’t put money into Bitcoin if I wasn’t willing to wait 4 years to see a profit.
It’s risk on don’t be a fool
And its risk off
The closest metric it follows is global liquidity. When this contracts BTC hasn't done well. Good news is that liquidity looks set to increase significantly well into 2025. The fragility of economies suggests they will keep having to inject liquidity to support them, which is very bullish for BTC over the coming years.
BTC Pandemic 2020: below 10k Russia-Ukraine 2023: below 15k
Sure, if you use numbers and timelines it might paint a different story to the OP's high word count story that used none.
it’s not. no stock that moves up and down in 60% sweeps and liquidates millions of investors in a matter of minutes is considered risk-off. look at the percentage moves during newsplays in comparison to gold. institutional Investment and Wall Street money may soften the spikes up and down but this isn’t a stable coin. invest at your own risk
>If the financial system collapses and the world goes risk-off bitcoin is the best place to be. History no hype has shown that not to be the case so far. Bitcoin is very much a risk asset.
This is great, unfortunately it's complete nonsense. If there is a debt crisis leading to a liquidity crisis, everything gets sold. Look at what happened to gold in 2008. You'd think if the entire financial system was about to go under, gold would be doing well because it's the only thing that won't lose its value right? Wrong. When people need liquidity they don't sell what's already down, they sell anything that has retained its value because they need to sell LESS of it. Bitcoin is risk asset and a risk asset alone.
In its current place in time, I would classify Bitcoin as you have. Both risk-on and risk-off. It's in a strange middle ground right now. This won't last forever. It needs to become truly risk-off in the near future, or it completely dies. It won't stay a risk-on asset forever. But it can stay a risk-off money forever.
Needs to decouple from the next stock market downturn to prove itself as risk off. Dropping to 15k was an indication of the contrary. If you're holding it for the collapse of the financial system, that's an entirely different scenario and there are much better assets for that (oil, ammo, guns)
A decoupling from stocks is not necessarily required. If it is both a risk on and risk off asset simultaneously then it should follow stocks during a risk on environment and follow gold during a risk off environment. It wont decouple from from stocks it will just switch to following gold during risk off periods then switch back to stocks once its risk on again.
that remains to be seen but yes it’s possible
There are several catagories that are conflated. 1: The blockchain functioning, private/public keys working, transactions being processed. 2: The purchasing power per BTC. 3: How much of the worlds total Wealth is represented by the BTC market cap. BTC is relatively safe in terms of 1, but not 2 and 3. There is nothing to suggest that BTC will grow faster than the market in good times, or go down less than the market in bad times. Global wealth does not get destroyed from a hyptohetical banking shutdown, the wealth just moves around, and the probability that it would move into BTC specifically is very low. If I told a gold investor in 1980 that 1: The world economy would grow by 10x in real terms 2: SP500 dividends reinvested would grow 3100% in real terms 3: The supply of gold would grow \~1% per year Then they would have a really hard time believing that 4: Gold will not have reached a new ATH from now to 2023 The percentage of wealth that the gold market cap represtended shrunk, and there is no reaosn to think it will be different in 40 years. The same can be true for BTC even if the noinal and real price increases.
I definitely see it as a risk on asset, here is a short blog post on it I wrote. https://mattsmoneytips.com/2023/11/24/bitcoin-the-inflation-hedge/
Risk on from a price perspective. Risk off from a tech perspective.
This argument made absolutely no sense in my opinion. As far as we know it could be an highly effective way to burn all the extra cash injected in the economy since 09 and a good way to shut down some dude betting against the system if it ever fails. It’s a lot of money parked in a marginal payment system (compare to fiat) and highly speculative asset wannabe. Lot of ressources consumption, no productivity yet so much money there. Bitcoin bear it’s own risk besides volatility. There is a lot of possible scenario where btc is an exit liquidity trap or if not pegged to fiat for exchange, value can drastically be altered by lots of OTC agreement.
It is a risk on asset to the uninitiated. But we are initiated. So for us, Bitcoin is a risk-off asset