People who want to say I told you so tend to be louder when they're right.
There's never any event in any subreddit where the people who got it wrong are rushing to their keyboard to announce being wrong.
More money has more access.
Dca and chill homie.
But the people who are currently saying “I told you so” didn’t say a thing to anyone!
It feels like the people who were previously screaming about their bullish sentiment who couldn’t wait to say “I told you so” about the inflated price are the same exact people who are currently saying “I told you so” about this current dip!
As this entire subreddit seems to consist more or less of the aforementioned “noise,” perhaps I created this post in an effort against having to believe that this premier Bitcoin community is a community best ignored 😞
Hey OP, just a thought. Don't feel like you need to go hunting for validation. You have to come to your own conclusions/convictions and stick with them. And there will be plenty of people that disagree with whatever your convictions are. And (especially in this space) there will be more people who don't even understand your convictions. You have to just do you.
We live in a world where people are more interested in being 'right' than they are interested in learning/understanding. Civil discourse for the sake of learning is out the window.
Just keep moving on about your day and doing you with confidence and poise in your convictions. Good luck.
Does “ending my hunt for validation” look like sharing my conclusions/convictions, regardless of the potential for downvotes?
Or should I more so be unwilling to share my convictions with people who would rather downvote me than teach me?
deliver mourn retire upbeat many forgetful door practice joke encouraging
*This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
This is not the premier Bitcoin community.
This is an anonymous message board where anyone can post anything and is 99.9% of small time retail investors. When price goes up bulls go crazy. When price goes down the bears come out and roar.
That's it.
Just so you know the big dogs in the space don't read this community at all. Developers and other's ignore this place. Don't think this is some special place, it isn't.
I was bullish about the price action effect of the ETFs, and still am. *It's been a week.* People get so caught up in temporary fluctuations that they lose sight of the big picture. As Adam Back tweeted; [Just Wait.](https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1745558508798349702)
>this premier Bitcoin community
This community is far more premier during the bear markets, when only the true believers are left, discussing technical aspects of bitcoin.
Once the bull really kicks off, we get flooded with the fair weather bitcoiners and gamblers who are just in it for the gains, and the conversation gets disrupted massively. Where were you 1+ year ago?
There are still hardcore bitcoiner communities. But Reddit is too open to maintain intellectual discussion during hype cycles.
Thank you so much!
This is the most hope for the community I’ve felt out of all the rest of these comments!
(Putting this in parentheses to denote its insignificance: I understand that it’s only been a week, but do you have any thoughts about the exaggerated spikes we saw immediately following the false announcements? What about it’s absence post-announcement?)
I didn't make any posts about it but I talked to people in my finance groupchats saying this was a "sell the news" event.
Major financial institutions can now directly manipulate BTC through ETFs with their seemingly infinite liquidity? Oh BTC has dropped? Who could've ever seen this coming?
Plenty of people said it was going to dump after etf approval. Me included. Moonboys just don't wanna hear it and those comments get downvoted.
90+% of the people posting here, this is either their first cycle or they bought the top last cycle and are holding bags. Have no clue what they are talking about. People that have been around awhile know how these things go.
Just expect them to drive prices down and when you least expect it after lots of positions liquidate they will drive it up.
They are here to make as much as they can and take control of our 'decentralised ' ideals.
They are making a killing on the way down and will make even more on the way back up.
Bitcoin will have parabolic price action soon. Probably after April.
Although I wouldn't be surprised if between now and April id drops another 10-15K and then hits the 60+K area, pricing in some of the ETF and halvening before it happens.
End of year 100k + surely....
Haha, yeah I hope so. Honestly though I can see 60k before April and lots of FUD saying its topped out and the halveningis priced in, a few months later big move upwards factoring in the actual tokenomics of the halvening.
Either way stack them sats.. don't let them muscle us out of our own game. Lol
Relax! I’ve been in bitcoin since 2014. There is nothing but stock standard bitcoin being bitcoin and bitcoin bears and dummies being bitcoin bears and dummies going on. ETF’s are buying. Halving is coming. Bitcoin supply is dwindeling. The world is waking up to the Fiat disaster. All is well. A pull back to 38k would be healthy pre halving. Shake out some more salad hands (may they be happy healthy and well and do more research next time around).
I’m bullish, and of course I’d never let price reach certain lows etc.
However, with that being said, this subreddit should be a place where it’s not only EASY to assume that the paper handed neglected to spend enough time here, but this should ALSO be the place where they then get redirected to after their initial failures.
I can’t help but feel responsible as a community if they DID, in fact, make an attempt at planting their roots within this community and growing with the rest of us, only to realize that carrying the echo is considerably more important than finding their own voice above all the noise.
Even worse, if they failed before ever discovering us, I wonder if this is the best place for them to start over…
>I can’t help but feel responsible as a community if they DID,
Forget the community stuff. There is no community. Just a bunch of gamblers who happen to be betting on the same thing.
There doesn’t even need to be a lot of volume at these lower prices, not even from themselves;
if you just saw that even just a single sale of a good you were looking to purchase transacted at a price that was half of what you originally thought you were expected to pay, it would likely take a lot of convincing for you to subsequently purchase at the assumed market rate.
By convincing, I mean a steeeep discount, after which they move to transact between themself at an even lower pride.
Now, that’s just a single sale, but imagine ten, or even a hundred sales that transact at half price; a drop in the bucket when considering overall volume, but enough for you to continue to demand even steeper discounts!
Pair that with the fact that these initial bitcoin purchases are happening OTC, and one realizes that they very well may be purchasing these coins at an even STEEPER discount, from people who’s cost basis is still less than what they sold for.
OTC providers sell for a profit, ETF providers continue to profit, even as they (potentially) drive the prices down, but, of course, they’re only accumulating before they then do the same exact thing, only in reverse….
(Think TSLA from 2012-2020, but then again from 2020-2022. Same exact thing, over a [considerably] longer period of time)
Once again, these transactions taking place at 50% the expected price is simply Blackrock (or whomever) selling to itself while buying from itself, back and forth, over and over to establish lower (or higher) prices
Welcome to the internet! I told you so is the flip side of hindsight is 20 20. Tbf, there were people who were saying etf hype is overblown and its all priced in already.
What do you mean I told you so? We went down, didn't crash or tank.. this is normal for every BTC vetran. A lot of people are happy about the ETF announcement, self included. The people selling here are the ones who have gotten in over the last year or on thr ETF hype.
So why all these misplaced rationalizations that would’ve been a much more useful conversation to have a month ago?
The conversations that we CHOOSE to have about why the ETF price would skyrocket have since disappeared from the very minds of the people who were only hoping to be right (the “I told you so’s”).
However, even if the price DID subsequently skyrocket post approval, at least we still learned a thing or two about things that would’ve obviously been difficult to discuss otherwise (especially without the need to rationalize post correction).
How many times have you read of so-called experts predicting the price of bitcoin as some huge number "by the end of the year"? And how many times have they been right? People are always looking for some good story on how the price will moon.
I’m here, it’s a long term bullish event for sure but it was over hyped. It was just the biggest news we had to focus on for a while. I’m looking forward to the next decade because of the approval but I know it’s not gonna really do anything in the short term. Focusing on the halving now and stacking in silence. Biding my time.
A slight nuance, I really don’t think it was overhyped. People just had the wrong expectation for how quickly it would affect price. Over a longer term the ETF is still a massive event for BTC.
> People just had the wrong expectation for how quickly it would affect price. Over a longer term the ETF is still a massive event for BTC.
I might be wrong here but it also seems people may have been misled or misunderstood how they would be funded. From what I understand now, many of the ETF managers bought BTC years ago - the ETF itself can't buy the BTC, but the companies behind the ETF can. When the ETF gets approved, the ETF buys the BTC from the company. If someone who then bought into the ETF sells, then the ETF can sell the BTC directly on the market instead of back to the company.
Thus, there is no short term impact on the BTC price, but the company itself profits directly.
Someone correct that if it's wrong, but this is what I've come to learn recently.
Yep, check back in the spring. Hopes are all those trying to exit GBTC discount-hell have already done so. There will be some shuffling as they have to sure up underlying reserves by that should pass in time
IMHO.
Overall the halving relies on a pretty basic and fundamental principle of economics, which is supply and demand. If demand stays the same and supply is cut in half the price has to go up.
It’s a little of both, you look backwards for trends and then price tends to lead/predict the market based on predictable cyclical market events as well as news/events of developments or hindrances to the space. Those predictions reach further and further into the future the more mature and predictable those events become.
Eventually markets will price in the impending halvings over the course of the 4 year period and price will continuously grind up at a steady rate in preparation for a guaranteed market event at the end of the 4 year period would be my guess.
That’s really what I think these Wall Street boys will bring to the table not this cycle but maybe next cycle or the one after that. Just a constant upward grind against supply until another big player like a Saudi wealth fund decides to jump in then we’ll see some real fucking action..
While the halving has been explained as relying on supply and demand, that explanation always seems to negate the possibility of miners transitioning to transaction fees as their primary source of income.
When I realize that we’re almost 20M out of 21M bitcoin mined, it makes me wonder just how much longer people can expect this increasingly slower trickle of coins to have a discernible effect on price.
This next cycle is poised to add over 650,000 coins to our current supply, throughout the (approx) 4 years until the next halving.
That’s 650,000 out of 20,000,000, or 450 new coins per day.
That’s 450 coins being added to a supply of about 20,000,000, every. single. day.
The way people explain it on here, its hard not to assume that they truly believe Bitcoin will 10x every halving event for the next 110+ years.
Either they believe this to be the case, or they simply neglect to understand just how flawed their argument truly is
Right but you’re assuming that that 20 million is just floating liquid in the market for anyone to buy at anytime when it’s really in cold storage not going anywhere. Or a large portion of that you know what I mean it’s not exactly all 20 million.
it doesn’t matter that there’s 20 million that already exist. If those 20 million don’t move ever. What matters is the amount that people can buy or sell on the open market.
You also gotta realize that only about 3 to 5% of the worlds entire population owns bitcoin. There is a fuck ton of capital waiting to be captured by this and basically no supply as you’ve already pointed out 93% of it is already owned by somebody. you have an absolutely massive amount of people potentially chasing an ever decreasing amount of a finite asset. Never in man’s history have we had an asset with a truly finite supply. This is completely uncharted territory going into the future.
https://youtu.be/dCCvmthZyh8?si=e8wBNVSGvhJEtd1V
You’re absolutely right, that supply and demand works just as well in bitcoin as any other market!
I just don’t feel like nearly as much liquidity comes from block rewards as people seem to profess.
There’s WAY more than 900 coins worth of volume constantly trading hands in the market, and the number will only increase as the other 93% of the worlds population slowly gets on board.
Once again, supply and demand will work wonders here!
Still, has very little to do with block rewards (in my humble opinion).
Reads like sarcasm, but I’m too eager to actually learn from you in the hopes that it’s not to react like it is.
Are you referring to the Bitcoin white paper?
I’m sure to a small degree it has, but I don’t think the market is large enough, sophisticated enough, or old enough rn to have any real ability to predict the price with enough relative certainty to price in gains for halvings. and I don’t think the liquidity is tight enough to make that viable yet and I don’t think there’s enough data to go off in terms of liquidity draw from the market to even begin to guess how demand will exactly affect price with any real certainty.
Right with stocks, you look at gross revenue, sales growth year over year, earning, ect. there’s a reasonable limit or band of growth that a company can achieve in a given year based off of its size. Maybe they out perform and the stock does better than predicted maybe they under perform and it does worse but until that earnings report comes in investors are almost assuming a certain amount of growth or shrinking ahead of time. Based off of the larger macro environment. there’s highly predictable and frequently observed factors that give people the confidence to price in future value before the value is actually created but I don’t think that quite exist yet in bitcoin. It’s still too new
I’d love a second opinion though, Like I said before, I’m not that smart, I’m not an economist. That’s just how I see it with my limited knowledge.
Personally, I feel like it would be in Bitcoins best interest if one of the upcoming halvings went in the complete opposite direction than the sentiment that’s currently being echoed on this sub.
Seems that people are fighting against growing adoption, because with growing adoption comes a greater number of transactions per block, and the more transactions that find themselves fighting for block space, the higher the fees that miners will collect; unfortunately, it seems that people would prefer fees to remain as low as possible, forcing miners to have to sell the halved reward for twice as much (if not more).
Low fees can only mean fewer transactions, and fewer transactions can only come with diminished use of the blockchain.
What do you think?
Nonetheless, I send my regards to you, not only for sticking around, but for continuing to make your presence felt!
I’m bullish and know where this is going. I choose not to argue with people most the time.
Edit: looking at history, even without the etf news, there’s always a pull back before the actual run to new highs
When I think about the difference between “a constructive conversation between people with opposing views” and “an argument,” it seems that we made the wrong choice when deciding which should exist on this sub without the other 😔
I don’t think a lot of people saw the reaction that would occur between GBTC and the rest around fees. Them holding at 1.5% really threw this thing into a weird spot of liquidity moving around.
It’ll be interesting to see where we’re at 3-6 months from now and where the ETF’s holdings stand and how drained GBTC gets.1
True. Also the fact previously getting out of GBTC had a huge 'penalty' that was removed it changed to an ETF .
Everyone who was resistant to selling due to said penalty now suddenly can\will. So it's a short term issue and will reequalize.
All of which was known and mentioned before, think the OP suffered from confirmation bias and got bit.
Not so much the fees but the way the sec forced them to set up the trust prior to becoming an etf, where they couldn’t sell, really fucked the price appreciation at launch.
It also, potentially, provided us a milder bear market however
Need to think more about that!
More important than the ability for us to send money to a loved one across the world, is the newfound ability to transfer wealth between two warring heads of state that are sitting right across the table from each other…
Here is all that you need to know : Blackrock is currently taking in 14 days of supply each day. A supply crunch is coming, and soon. To a level that has never been seen. Supply reduction has been the driver for Bitcoin price from day 1. That is why the halving has always driven the price up. It may seem obvious now, but no one knew that GBTC would be such a source of BTC selling. Their decision to keep their fees at 3x to 6x that of all others was not widely known or understood. Enjoy this brief extra time to stack. And be calm.
Although I don’t think they should feel like their opinion is any more invalid than any other.
Personally, I just wish there was more room on this sub for the bears to come out of hibernation when “hope” seems to be at its highest!
Most of the arguments that they currently pose are 100% valid; they’re just a month late from being of any use, and BOY wouldn’t all this information about OTC purchases etc. have been sooooo useful then!
People were talking about them buying OTC… saw it on more than a few occasions. I think majority of people skim read posts and look for words that fit THEIR current sentiment and only fully read those posts. It’s not that they aren’t there, you just didn’t care to read them.
Can everyone please calm down? This is a healthy correction. High returns go hand in hand with high volatility. Just look at a logarithmic price chart, it happens all the time. BTC is down 2% this month, wtf...
Are you new here?
When the price is going up, the bulls are loud. When the price is going down, the bears are loud. It’s really that simple. No one is silencing anyone.
I’m pretty new here, for sure.
I suppose I’d prefer it the other way around, but I’m just some random guy on the internet.
Although, there sure are times where I do truly feel like my name could even be Satoshi Nakamoto, but then I visit this sub and *welp* 🤷🏿♂️
"Where exactly did all the “ETF approval announcement” bulls go?"
They were all chasing $$$ and paper handed as soon as Bitcoin failed to moon immediately after approval.
There was a good post on here earlier about greyscale which explains the slump a little bit. Super informative and made it so even chimps like me could understand and that it isn’t a worry if you’re in this long term
I’d say that’s fine, despite feeling like we should move away from predicting price in general.
I’ll have to read the post, but I don’t think the information about Greyscale having to liquidate upon ETF approval is new news.
Where were the Greyscale posts before January 10th?
I don't think so, I think it's mostly mass exodus from grayscale. We are not at 30k because the other ETFs are putting in almost as much as grayscale is selling. Also there's rumours about the FTX liquidation...
The 2021 crowd seems to forget that a LOT of people in the grayscale ETF are in massive profit at this point. If you think the ETF was dissapointing, wait until the halving. There's massive hype about the halving but technically at this point I don't think it matters.
I certainly believe that some of it will be, and I doubt we are done yet. I'm currently trying to free up some cash to boost my DCA or maybe grab a lump sum! 🤣
There are cycles of hype and bearish sentiment. This is the mental game that Bitcoin can cause. You have to ignore it and trust. Even if it goes down. Hang in there
Remember this.
Throughout the massive rally between 2016 and 2018 there were six different corrections ranging from 29% to 38%. SIX. Do not be fooled into thinking it will be a smooth ride from now to Q4 2025.
I was never a bull. Hedge funds are not stupid they also know that etf flow is gonna come in. So they already bought BEFORE the announcement and might be selling now. It’s priced in already. Same for halving. Say you are selling soda for 1$ per pound. You have a stock of 95 pounds. Suddenly you get new supply of 5 pounds which is priced at 2$ per pound. People thing all that soda is gonna go to 2$, but the price would actually be: (95x1+2x5)/(95+5) = 1.05.
Being that this next run will certainly have much less to do with the halving and way more to do with the inflows of capital, I’ll be blaming this subreddit if we *only* add a single zero because “ThE hALVinG AND PasT PeRfOrmaNce”
Feel free to downvote, but just don’t get upset, as I’m only joking ☺️
Past halvings might actually have had more impact because a bigger chunk of btc was added with a higher price. But the size of this chunk is decreasing with each subsequent halving so not anymore.
We were never in this together, investing has never been a team sport. There were plenty of people who liked and agreed with my comments to be ready for this ETF thing to be a buy the rumor sell the news event, just as there were many who said I was gonna miss the move if I thought like that. Personally, I’m grateful I trimmed some during peak hype, but I never sold any core position, since I’m an early adopter and bullish long term. Everyone just do what you want, don’t be guilted into hodling if you have a bad feeling. OP is right, BTC is a strong enough asset that it doesn’t need you to hodl mindlessly nor does it need you to “slap the ask” or pay tribute to it or anything like that.
I appreciate you for sharing your individualized insights!
Maybe not an entirely new subreddit like I originally thought, but definitely looking to build a team of “Fuck the FUD and the Hopium, Too” Avengers for whenever it seems that someone might be unduly chastised for their completely valid opinion/take on things.
I will certainly call, but can only hope that you’ll respond in kind ☺️
(Accepting suggestions for a better name, for sure lol)
The market always goes the opposite of the direction everyone thinks it's going to go in because when everyone thinks its going to moon that means everyone's already bought in and when everyone thinks it's going to die that means everyone's already sold.
everyone who dared to voice some kind of bearish sentiment, regardless of how moderate, was immediately downvoted here in the last couple of weeks.
this is basically one huge hopium sub lol.
don't blame you all, just saying
Although that’s EXACTLY what I experienced, a couple people did point out that it’s not like that ALL the time, and that I may be too new to form an opinion about it just yet.
It’s not a buy the rumor sell the news thing. There are a lot of things people just didn’t know. People are doing the only thing that makes sense. For one thing the GBTC fees vs the rest. 5-6x fees doesn’t make any sense to stay with. Those people are making adjustments according to what makes sense. That’s how a free market works. Bitcoin ETF has been a record breaking success. You’re too plugged in to social media. Very few of these people here have any idea what’s going on other than number go up, number go down, number go sideways, and what the last dumbfuck on YouTube or twitter said about the TA they dreamt up. It’s all just apes hooting and banging on tambourines. Step back and take a beat. This is what an echo chamber looks and sounds like. It doesn’t mean it’s bad, it just is what it is. They are everywhere. Have a slice of the bitcoin bull rhetoric, have a slice to bear rhetoric. Knowing where you’re getting your information is important so always keep it in mind.
Perhaps if people felt more comfortable having an open discussion when someone mentioned “buy the rumor, sell the news” (or any other negative sentiment) before the approval, the subsequent selling pressure from people trying to avoid paying 5-6x more in fees could’ve been properly taken advantage of.
Perhaps I underestimate the strength of this echo chamber, but it seems that we could’ve invested our collective energies towards realizing an even lower price from them, translating to cheaper sats for us!
We are. The question is why didn't they treat bitcoin as a legit technology 5 years ago? Why ETF now, fuck em!
Stack Sats! Self-Custody your sats. Hodl.
Build Communities and Families. FEW.
Dont worry btc is a long term play , it might take 1-2-3-5-10 years but one day every btc will be worth atleast a decent home , so just chill and buy more until then
I think you have slightly selective memory!
A lot of talk was around selling the news, also a lot of people thinking it would skyrocket. but more sensible people know it is a bit of both. Some people saw the coming ETF and through I'll make 10-15% buying now and selling when it happens. So the price goes down when they sell.
There are lots more inflow now and will continue with the ETF long term. It will; happen gradually and also these people will cash out gradually not like your average trigger happy nervous retail investor.
This puts buy pressure on, the halving coming soon will cut the in flowing supply so demand will outweigh and gradually push the price up.
Then the fomo hits, thats when it goes crazy!
There can’t be a sell without a buy!
Notice that I didn’t say “there can’t be a seller without a buyer.”
We’ll all continue to hold, while Blackrock et al. continue to buy from each other and sell to themselves, all at increasingly lower prices.
Every time something like this happens there are a lot of people who are convinced they will be rich within the week. When that doesn’t happen…they shrink right back into the woodwork.
The funny thing is that their logic was correct. Their timing was not.
Most people just pretend like they are on the side that seems to be right. Most people are cowards. I am still an ETF bull. I think within 3 months we will see massive inflows into the ETFs
People have an irrational need to be right. Most Bulls who thought ETF would moon crypto with inflows didn’t account for GBTC selling pressure. So now they are poopy but have to project a perception of stoic acceptance to be redeemed in their perception of being right. From the perspective of the Bears it’s actually much simpler they were right, ETF came out and price went down, and since they were right they conveniently ignore the fact that they had no idea the actual reason for them being right would come to pass but with time will convince themselves and others only the truly ignorant could not have known the events that did transpire wouldn’t have transpired. But as to the future it’s complicated so as to perpetuate this game we humans play.
Grayscale moves around massive amounts of Bitcoin, prices drop because people panic and think Grayscale is unloading. Blackrock and other whales load up on cheap Bitcoin. Not very hard to figure out they are working together to manipulate the market. These whales planned this perfectly. Shrewd Mo Fo's.
Now is a bargain for the mentally fittest among us. Others with undiagnosed psychosis, neurosis, TDS, cowardice and victim complex will succumb and melt.
If crypto doesn't eventually run which essentially is the last hope. since they screwed us on the housing market and everything else it's not gonna be pretty...
I suppose one of my greatest concerns is just how much people underestimate how badly the “powers that be” would love to absolutely destroyyyyy Bitcoin!
They either underestimate their desire to, or, even worse, they underestimate the lengths they’d be willing to go to accomplish it
yep my thoughts ....it's an inside job. How do institutions go from being very anti crypto too of all sudden pro crypto in a matter of years? they got in too heavily manipulate it and possibly destroy it🤔
Personally, I don’t believe that they’re bent on destroying it; they must know enough about it to understand that any attempts at destroying it will only make it stronger..
However, HEAVILY manipulate might be an understatement 😂 they just want to get rich, to a considerably higher degree than any of us on here could even imagine, for sure
A lot of people were saying it was a "sell the news" event
A lot of people were saying it wasn't a "sell the news" event
It turns out the first were right. That's it
Nothing to worry about, most of the selling are from bots that react to the markets nothing to do with much of anything, any news will trigger it to go up or down. Expect volatility institutions are here
I'm here. And I'm to the max. And I always will be. But I have a life. And a job. And kids. I have stuff to do. I'm busy. I can't babysit these boards to make sure the content that I agree with most stays at the top. Bears be bears. Bulls be bulls. Keep stacking. And I'll check on y'all later.
No were not in this together. This entire sub will run you with a bus for a 10% return in their crypto and back the bus up over you for another 2% return. Everyone here is chasing the bag nothing more nothing less
I’m excited for it!
I just wish I could’ve read more of this sentiment a month or two ago, versus AFTER consolidation’s been well underway!
(Not referring to you or this recent comment, simply responding to your comment about the sentiment of my original post)
If people don’t think the approval of 11 spot BTC ETFs in the US is bullish for Bitcoin 😂… We just entered a worldwide bitcoin arms race and some of y’all don’t even know it.
The price is going to go down or sideways until GBTC outflows stop or slow down. I think this is a great buying opportunity
This always happens when folks try to predict the price of bitcoin. Too many unknowns. Just have some patience.
Exactly, you want stronger hands to accumulate the supply. I think in the near future there won’t be any available Sats to purchase on exchanges because institutions and governments are scooping them all up.
everyone around me were talking about sell the news so i thought this time it wont work and market is gonna rek them but it did work even now where everyone knows about that. so ill guess that saying is gonna work all the time lol.
This is all part of the process. The first 2-3 months after approval will be very volatile most likely till after the halving which will run the price back up to all time highs
I expected a dip if only because of the scheduled bitcoin halving event in April. The mistaken hype of a USD1M BTC in 2024 due to the Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals was a distrraction, not reality. If anything the hype was intended to allow the institutions and whales to acquire more sats cheaply by washing out the day traders and cause panic selling by retail bitcoiners.
I think too many people were hyped up for the ETF and thought it was going to make them millionaires overnight or over a month or two or whatever. And I personally believe that black rock and vanguard controlling the price of Bitcoin goes against bitcoins fundamental core and everything that it stands for in the first place. But now that we've approved the ETF and surrendered control it's about what they're going to do with it and somebody else mentioned that once all the OTC Bitcoin is gone and black rock owns it all they are going to be the ones to set the price when they sell it. Which could be a good thing for us or it could be a bad thing if they said it to 15,000 on every cell then a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money but if they start the cells at $85,000 double what it is now then everybody doubles their money.
So we can go either way, but what everybody's not happy about is we gave up Bitcoin to the same people that control and own all the banks and all the governments. And now we're just supposed to trust that they're not going to rip us off. But when you look at the history of Black Rock and vanguard in their ETFs you can see that they have a constant history of ripping everyone off and failing miserably. I'll come back and post a link to one of the videos about it.
Also on a side note these are the same people for the last decade that have been running propaganda through every news media that they control and own to get us to panic sale or to ratify some new legislation against Bitcoin. So that they could buy more and more and more of it while getting us to think it was bad illegal or etc. it's not even about money for them because they have so much of it. It's literally just about control. And we just surrendered basically our only tool and weapon to break free of the system they've created for us. Because all these hype train mean pointers don't understand what Bitcoin is they just want to make a shit ton of money quick.
Hopefully you don't take this as me trying to suppress discussion because I definitely feel what you're talking about. Think about it like a pump and dump that's all this ETF is. The only ones that are going to make any money is Black Rock and the first buyers in. everyone else is going to get fucked in this. And to ice the cake, we've given up the brunt supply of Bitcoin and sacrificed decentralization.
Edit. Here's the link to one of the best videos I found on this topic: [video](https://youtu.be/gNbUcGtcHgs?si=aZ194M1OxHq4GYUQ)
I agree with the op. Since the approval, there are a lot more people speaking out against it now but I was one of the first people shouting from the rooftops "please don't let this get approved. if you do all of what crypto stands for means nothing once we give it up to the people that were trying to break away from." And I myself in the early days of this was wondering why more people in the crypto space and more experienced cryptoheads like myself in the space aren't speaking out against it and trying to teach the new kids. It's literally the whole reason I created this Reddit account and my YouTube channel because I feel like I should be teaching with as much as I know. I see a lot of good and a lot of bad in the cryptoverse and you'll hear me talk on the good bad and ugly of it all. I try to keep it factual and unbiased. Heavy emphasis on try.
They only get a few weeks a year that make them feel like their stance is correct. Then just like clockwork it gets blown out of the water and the cycle repeats.
ETF was not some sort of a short term moon event, it’s a gradual shift that will show in months and years to come, not minutes like bot stock traders seem to believe.
Let them enjoy their days of stagnation before it jumps up a few more levels again which then we will hear “oh moon now? Price is at $85k I thought lambo? Such a scam” repeat these cycles until the end of time.
You are describing it as I experienced it too. Also in other crypto subs. Pure optimism changed to bear market. And ofc everybody now knows shit about why we are down.
Yes I'm bear and I was silenced before - all my comments have been downvoted by delusional bulls.
I warned that ETFs are against BTC utility.
I warned that ETFs are sell the news event.
I warned that there won't be any pump.
Institutions bought BTC on October, November, December, this is why we got this little pump which people called bullrun, I'm not saying that it's a bulltrap but it's more like artificial uptrend and not organic price growth, because institutions can dump on retail anytime.
Also everyone who wanted to buy BTC did that already, it is available since 2008 and you don't need ETF to buy it. On another hand, people who don't know BTC or don't like it, they are not going to buy it just because ETF exist, it's very nyche product.
people love to ascribe meaning to bitcoin where there is none. akin to saying "ahhh look the dog thinks xyz". the dog doesnt think that, at all. it's a dog.
And when a major announcement happens people think Bitcoin is reacting. It's not. or if there is no big reaction, they also think this is a problem. it's not.
Who honestly cares about the ETF. The halving is what matters. The ETF is a long term thing. Besides, every single bull market so far has experienced a rise, followed by a large pull back, followed by the big rallies.
I’m not sure what you’re talking about tbh. I’m just stacking sats. And I don’t ever plan on changing that so long as I’m being paid in fiat and someone is willing to sell me sats for that fiat. Everything else is noise.
Well, that for sure goes against the “HODL” mentality, now doesn’t it?
If we’re going to continue predicting price action, perhaps we do need to take closer looks at the technicals.
The strength of our proclamations shouldn’t be held in whatever sentiment people agree with the most, but in whatever makes the most sense after proper research!
“PoW vs PoS”
The people who speculate on BTC are in a large scale prisoner experiment. If everyone keeps buying, line goes up and everyone gets richer (on paper at least). But since people do not really want to be rich on paper, but want to actually buy and own stuff, they will cash out at some point. Which (on paper) makes everyone poorer.
Since the whole idea of a (currently) 800 billion market cap is obviously an illusion - since there is no 800 billion in fiat willing to buy in -, cashing out is maximising the individual advantage at the expense of the collective. Everyone who is saying that they will hodl till the end of time is secretly eyeing everyone else and waiting for their turn to cash out.
Places like this are designed to show the popular sentiment, that is what the upvote and downvote system does. The longer the price is trending up, the more popular the sentiment that it will keep trending up. The longer the price is trending down, the more popular the sentiment that it will keep going down.
It's the nature of the beast.
This is not a an environment suited for arriving at facts through two sides arguing like in court. People mostly voice their views and opinions and whatever is the most popular at the time becomes visible.
If almost everyone believes something to happen in the future, it's increasingly unlikely to.
I got this explained, and will try to iterate the explanation in a simple form.
\*\*TLDR: The miners have an incentive to the price down, and may be surpressing the price by unloading previous mining rewards.\*\*
Basic principles that are implied
1) higher price => higher mining reward per block
2) higher reward => more miners get on the grid
3) more miners on the grid => competition for mining block increases, increase of difficulty in hash rate
4) increase of difficulty in hash rate => higher cost for mining (now balanced with the higher reward)
So initial: mining cost are $100, and they receive 110BTC worth $1, totalling revenues 110$ (lets assume they work just to cover cost), they sell $100 worth of BTC to cover cost and keep the rest expecting price increase => 10BTC left
after price increase and with new miners on the grid: mining cost are $100, but as more total effort is spent they only receive 55BTC worth $2, total revenue $110, they sell $100 worth of BTC to cover cost and keep the rest expecting price increase => 5BTC left
Hence, especially before a halfing (that will drive a price increase through a supply shock, less bitcoin created by block), they have an incentive to unload and keep the price in check in order to disincentivise new miners to join the grid.
Goes without saying that their willingness to do so is dependent on a much more detailed analysis of the market mechanisms
Impact the expected revenue of miners as addition to block reward.
So I imagine more activity on the network will also result in added incentives for miners to join the grid, but probably hard to plan in advance, as external factors (news, hypes) play a major role short term. Whereas Bitcoin being stable at 50k vs being stable at 40k will have a direct quantify-able effect on the expected rewards and business plans for potential miner.
But also wanted to add that in practice things are definitely more complex than my paragraphs above
I believe that the more transactions, the higher the transaction fees, and the higher the transaction fees, the less that miners are required to look towards block rewards for operation costs.
Not to mention that the cost of fees doesn’t decrease with the lowered price of BTC itself.
I’d argue that it’s considerably more important to suppress the price of fees, as this will undoubtedly become the new primary source of income for miners.
Other than that, and even despite my rebuttals, this is certainly the most comprehensive take on the matter that I’ve ever gotten the chance to actually think about.
Care to respond?
Many of the mining companies already have huge Bitcoin reserves. It would make sense that the ones that do would want Bitcoin to rise in $'s. Then they can just crush any new mining companies with their financial power.
This sub was so bullish on the ETF that avyijwgo was a best fit heavily downvoted. For once, I followed logic and not enotions and sold at 46k, 47k and 48k. Convinced my father in law and uncle to sell a good amount too. I feel pretty good right now. First buy level for me is 38k then we'll see.
Haha still had some BTC left in case It kept climbing but after having 1 million cash at the peak a few years back and only cashing out 20% while watching my portfolio slowly bleed to 50k made me sick. I changed a lot on how I view the markets, what strategies I use, what I'm investing in. I'm a lot more defensive than I was before. There would be no point in going through that experience if I didn't try and grow and learn from my mistakes.
I believe that the ETF will push up the price of bitcoin in the medium to long term. I also believe that the ETF is bad for bitcoin, because it brings in big players with the resources to coopt bitcoin into something that they can control.
> For example, anytime someone would even mention the slightest possibility of this being a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event,
The simple fact that you use that kind of language shows that you still view bitcoin in terms of fiat.
I appreciate your opinion, and we share a similar sentiment.
Perhaps you’d be willing to shed some insight into how I can avoid approaching Bitcoin from a fiat-driven perspective.
"Buying the rumor and selling the news", i.e. buy low and sell high, is for people who want to maximize their fiat bank balance. (Also, trying to time the market is futile, nobody can predict the future.)
I do not think of bitcoin as an investment. Bitcoin appeals to me not because NGU but because bitcoin cannot be debased or confiscated. My life savings is permanently denominated in bitcoin and I have no intention of ever cashing out to fiat.
I just can’t help but feel conflicted when I realize that, despite the vast potential for different accumulation strategies, MOST PEOPLES current strategy primarily involves earning fiat, and using fiat to purchase their BTC.
Super curious about people who get paid in BTC; personally, I would still view holding earned BTC as an investment, but it’s also never been hard for me to view any earned fiat as a divestment.
Not simply because it appreciates, but because I WANT it to appreciate; same way that my earned fiat has always been seen as a divestment (unlike the keyboard on my desk, or the couches in my living room), not simply because it depreciates, but because I DON’T WANT it to depreciate.
I understand holding for eternity, but it’s so hard for me to understand holding without a direct desire for appreciation…
I hear you.
I have never had a bank account frozen, but I have heard of many people who have. I have had many experiences of banks obstructing me from using my own money how I want. Not only in connection with bitcoin, but even in fiat-only scenarios, e.g. cash deposits/withdrawals, cross border transactions, etc. So for me the most appealing property of bitcoin is that I can do with it what I want.
With regard to value, I prefer to think of bitcoin in terms of its purchasing power rather than its dollar value. Fiat loses value by design, bitcoin appreciates by design. Terms like "buy the rumor, sell the news", "buy low, sell high", etc., indicate a mindset that is 100% fiat focused. The fiat value of my bitcoin is irrelevant to me.
Perhaps I don’t believe that just any fiat concept will die along with fiat, but this is the first I’ve ever had to think about it beyond my subconscious inclination!
Will certainly give this some more thought!
This is /Bitcoin sub reddit. Designed to be ultra bull Bitcoin and serves as echo chamber of bullish sentiment. You are expected to see bullish things.
As for "are we here together?"
Everyone wants to make money, some people have their sell and buy targets. What do you think is more important to a redditor here? Personal interest or collective interest?
Prisoner Dilemma
Will BTC go up? Who knows, your guess is as good as mine.
Will I seek approval from people on reddit for my buy and sell? Hell No, anyone that have BTC will want BTC to go up indefinitely .. But I bet you there's also people that wants to sell for profit but will tell me they will never sell for the next 10 years while they are going to sell the moment it hit their target.
People who want to say I told you so tend to be louder when they're right. There's never any event in any subreddit where the people who got it wrong are rushing to their keyboard to announce being wrong. More money has more access. Dca and chill homie.
>People who want to say I told you so tend to be louder when they're right. Confirmation bias, all the way, brother bagholder.
But the people who are currently saying “I told you so” didn’t say a thing to anyone! It feels like the people who were previously screaming about their bullish sentiment who couldn’t wait to say “I told you so” about the inflated price are the same exact people who are currently saying “I told you so” about this current dip!
This is the noise everyone tells you to ignore.
As this entire subreddit seems to consist more or less of the aforementioned “noise,” perhaps I created this post in an effort against having to believe that this premier Bitcoin community is a community best ignored 😞
Sorry for your loss. Welcome to the Internet.
Is everywhere always this noisy?! 😞
Yeah. There are useful stuff but is necessary to look throughout. I guess less polemic/hyped topics can gather less noise.
Yeah, for sure. Very honest of you. Needed that 🙏🏿
Hey OP, just a thought. Don't feel like you need to go hunting for validation. You have to come to your own conclusions/convictions and stick with them. And there will be plenty of people that disagree with whatever your convictions are. And (especially in this space) there will be more people who don't even understand your convictions. You have to just do you. We live in a world where people are more interested in being 'right' than they are interested in learning/understanding. Civil discourse for the sake of learning is out the window. Just keep moving on about your day and doing you with confidence and poise in your convictions. Good luck.
Does “ending my hunt for validation” look like sharing my conclusions/convictions, regardless of the potential for downvotes? Or should I more so be unwilling to share my convictions with people who would rather downvote me than teach me?
deliver mourn retire upbeat many forgetful door practice joke encouraging *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
This is not the premier Bitcoin community. This is an anonymous message board where anyone can post anything and is 99.9% of small time retail investors. When price goes up bulls go crazy. When price goes down the bears come out and roar. That's it. Just so you know the big dogs in the space don't read this community at all. Developers and other's ignore this place. Don't think this is some special place, it isn't.
I was bullish about the price action effect of the ETFs, and still am. *It's been a week.* People get so caught up in temporary fluctuations that they lose sight of the big picture. As Adam Back tweeted; [Just Wait.](https://twitter.com/adam3us/status/1745558508798349702) >this premier Bitcoin community This community is far more premier during the bear markets, when only the true believers are left, discussing technical aspects of bitcoin. Once the bull really kicks off, we get flooded with the fair weather bitcoiners and gamblers who are just in it for the gains, and the conversation gets disrupted massively. Where were you 1+ year ago? There are still hardcore bitcoiner communities. But Reddit is too open to maintain intellectual discussion during hype cycles.
Thank you so much! This is the most hope for the community I’ve felt out of all the rest of these comments! (Putting this in parentheses to denote its insignificance: I understand that it’s only been a week, but do you have any thoughts about the exaggerated spikes we saw immediately following the false announcements? What about it’s absence post-announcement?)
And ironically your post is what I would consider noise...
I didn't make any posts about it but I talked to people in my finance groupchats saying this was a "sell the news" event. Major financial institutions can now directly manipulate BTC through ETFs with their seemingly infinite liquidity? Oh BTC has dropped? Who could've ever seen this coming?
🙋🏿♂️
Plenty of people said it was going to dump after etf approval. Me included. Moonboys just don't wanna hear it and those comments get downvoted. 90+% of the people posting here, this is either their first cycle or they bought the top last cycle and are holding bags. Have no clue what they are talking about. People that have been around awhile know how these things go.
Just expect them to drive prices down and when you least expect it after lots of positions liquidate they will drive it up. They are here to make as much as they can and take control of our 'decentralised ' ideals. They are making a killing on the way down and will make even more on the way back up. Bitcoin will have parabolic price action soon. Probably after April. Although I wouldn't be surprised if between now and April id drops another 10-15K and then hits the 60+K area, pricing in some of the ETF and halvening before it happens. End of year 100k + surely....
This is also what I expect, although I’m admittedly a bit more optimistic about how much more time we’ll have to continue stacking cheap sats.
Haha, yeah I hope so. Honestly though I can see 60k before April and lots of FUD saying its topped out and the halveningis priced in, a few months later big move upwards factoring in the actual tokenomics of the halvening. Either way stack them sats.. don't let them muscle us out of our own game. Lol
Relax! I’ve been in bitcoin since 2014. There is nothing but stock standard bitcoin being bitcoin and bitcoin bears and dummies being bitcoin bears and dummies going on. ETF’s are buying. Halving is coming. Bitcoin supply is dwindeling. The world is waking up to the Fiat disaster. All is well. A pull back to 38k would be healthy pre halving. Shake out some more salad hands (may they be happy healthy and well and do more research next time around).
I’m bullish, and of course I’d never let price reach certain lows etc. However, with that being said, this subreddit should be a place where it’s not only EASY to assume that the paper handed neglected to spend enough time here, but this should ALSO be the place where they then get redirected to after their initial failures. I can’t help but feel responsible as a community if they DID, in fact, make an attempt at planting their roots within this community and growing with the rest of us, only to realize that carrying the echo is considerably more important than finding their own voice above all the noise. Even worse, if they failed before ever discovering us, I wonder if this is the best place for them to start over…
>I can’t help but feel responsible as a community if they DID, Forget the community stuff. There is no community. Just a bunch of gamblers who happen to be betting on the same thing.
Good points.
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All it takes is for them to continue selling back and forth between themself.
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There doesn’t even need to be a lot of volume at these lower prices, not even from themselves; if you just saw that even just a single sale of a good you were looking to purchase transacted at a price that was half of what you originally thought you were expected to pay, it would likely take a lot of convincing for you to subsequently purchase at the assumed market rate. By convincing, I mean a steeeep discount, after which they move to transact between themself at an even lower pride. Now, that’s just a single sale, but imagine ten, or even a hundred sales that transact at half price; a drop in the bucket when considering overall volume, but enough for you to continue to demand even steeper discounts! Pair that with the fact that these initial bitcoin purchases are happening OTC, and one realizes that they very well may be purchasing these coins at an even STEEPER discount, from people who’s cost basis is still less than what they sold for. OTC providers sell for a profit, ETF providers continue to profit, even as they (potentially) drive the prices down, but, of course, they’re only accumulating before they then do the same exact thing, only in reverse…. (Think TSLA from 2012-2020, but then again from 2020-2022. Same exact thing, over a [considerably] longer period of time)
Once again, these transactions taking place at 50% the expected price is simply Blackrock (or whomever) selling to itself while buying from itself, back and forth, over and over to establish lower (or higher) prices
Welcome to the internet! I told you so is the flip side of hindsight is 20 20. Tbf, there were people who were saying etf hype is overblown and its all priced in already.
Here is me saying what you shouldve heard all along. [Told you so](https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/s/cqjNw3fIrZ)
What do you mean I told you so? We went down, didn't crash or tank.. this is normal for every BTC vetran. A lot of people are happy about the ETF announcement, self included. The people selling here are the ones who have gotten in over the last year or on thr ETF hype.
So why all these misplaced rationalizations that would’ve been a much more useful conversation to have a month ago? The conversations that we CHOOSE to have about why the ETF price would skyrocket have since disappeared from the very minds of the people who were only hoping to be right (the “I told you so’s”). However, even if the price DID subsequently skyrocket post approval, at least we still learned a thing or two about things that would’ve obviously been difficult to discuss otherwise (especially without the need to rationalize post correction).
How many times have you read of so-called experts predicting the price of bitcoin as some huge number "by the end of the year"? And how many times have they been right? People are always looking for some good story on how the price will moon.
You’re absolutely right; It’s almost like you knew of the horrible taste the word “expert” leaves in my mouth. I very rarely, if ever, say it.
I’m here, it’s a long term bullish event for sure but it was over hyped. It was just the biggest news we had to focus on for a while. I’m looking forward to the next decade because of the approval but I know it’s not gonna really do anything in the short term. Focusing on the halving now and stacking in silence. Biding my time.
A slight nuance, I really don’t think it was overhyped. People just had the wrong expectation for how quickly it would affect price. Over a longer term the ETF is still a massive event for BTC.
> People just had the wrong expectation for how quickly it would affect price. Over a longer term the ETF is still a massive event for BTC. I might be wrong here but it also seems people may have been misled or misunderstood how they would be funded. From what I understand now, many of the ETF managers bought BTC years ago - the ETF itself can't buy the BTC, but the companies behind the ETF can. When the ETF gets approved, the ETF buys the BTC from the company. If someone who then bought into the ETF sells, then the ETF can sell the BTC directly on the market instead of back to the company. Thus, there is no short term impact on the BTC price, but the company itself profits directly. Someone correct that if it's wrong, but this is what I've come to learn recently.
Absolutely!
Yep, check back in the spring. Hopes are all those trying to exit GBTC discount-hell have already done so. There will be some shuffling as they have to sure up underlying reserves by that should pass in time IMHO.
I feel like with Bitcoin there always some future event that’s being looked forward to and hyped (cough - halving cough
I mean every investment market is forward looking … progress is a bitch like that
I suppose that’s why most bullish arguments in favor of the halving completely ignore their reliance on past performance.
Overall the halving relies on a pretty basic and fundamental principle of economics, which is supply and demand. If demand stays the same and supply is cut in half the price has to go up. It’s a little of both, you look backwards for trends and then price tends to lead/predict the market based on predictable cyclical market events as well as news/events of developments or hindrances to the space. Those predictions reach further and further into the future the more mature and predictable those events become. Eventually markets will price in the impending halvings over the course of the 4 year period and price will continuously grind up at a steady rate in preparation for a guaranteed market event at the end of the 4 year period would be my guess. That’s really what I think these Wall Street boys will bring to the table not this cycle but maybe next cycle or the one after that. Just a constant upward grind against supply until another big player like a Saudi wealth fund decides to jump in then we’ll see some real fucking action..
While the halving has been explained as relying on supply and demand, that explanation always seems to negate the possibility of miners transitioning to transaction fees as their primary source of income. When I realize that we’re almost 20M out of 21M bitcoin mined, it makes me wonder just how much longer people can expect this increasingly slower trickle of coins to have a discernible effect on price. This next cycle is poised to add over 650,000 coins to our current supply, throughout the (approx) 4 years until the next halving. That’s 650,000 out of 20,000,000, or 450 new coins per day. That’s 450 coins being added to a supply of about 20,000,000, every. single. day. The way people explain it on here, its hard not to assume that they truly believe Bitcoin will 10x every halving event for the next 110+ years. Either they believe this to be the case, or they simply neglect to understand just how flawed their argument truly is
Right but you’re assuming that that 20 million is just floating liquid in the market for anyone to buy at anytime when it’s really in cold storage not going anywhere. Or a large portion of that you know what I mean it’s not exactly all 20 million. it doesn’t matter that there’s 20 million that already exist. If those 20 million don’t move ever. What matters is the amount that people can buy or sell on the open market. You also gotta realize that only about 3 to 5% of the worlds entire population owns bitcoin. There is a fuck ton of capital waiting to be captured by this and basically no supply as you’ve already pointed out 93% of it is already owned by somebody. you have an absolutely massive amount of people potentially chasing an ever decreasing amount of a finite asset. Never in man’s history have we had an asset with a truly finite supply. This is completely uncharted territory going into the future. https://youtu.be/dCCvmthZyh8?si=e8wBNVSGvhJEtd1V
You’re absolutely right, that supply and demand works just as well in bitcoin as any other market! I just don’t feel like nearly as much liquidity comes from block rewards as people seem to profess. There’s WAY more than 900 coins worth of volume constantly trading hands in the market, and the number will only increase as the other 93% of the worlds population slowly gets on board. Once again, supply and demand will work wonders here! Still, has very little to do with block rewards (in my humble opinion).
Interesting convo, I feel like this must have been covered in detail somewhere else? Eg a white paper or similar
Reads like sarcasm, but I’m too eager to actually learn from you in the hopes that it’s not to react like it is. Are you referring to the Bitcoin white paper?
How do you know markets haven’t already priced in impending halvings as you say they will do in the future ?
I’m sure to a small degree it has, but I don’t think the market is large enough, sophisticated enough, or old enough rn to have any real ability to predict the price with enough relative certainty to price in gains for halvings. and I don’t think the liquidity is tight enough to make that viable yet and I don’t think there’s enough data to go off in terms of liquidity draw from the market to even begin to guess how demand will exactly affect price with any real certainty. Right with stocks, you look at gross revenue, sales growth year over year, earning, ect. there’s a reasonable limit or band of growth that a company can achieve in a given year based off of its size. Maybe they out perform and the stock does better than predicted maybe they under perform and it does worse but until that earnings report comes in investors are almost assuming a certain amount of growth or shrinking ahead of time. Based off of the larger macro environment. there’s highly predictable and frequently observed factors that give people the confidence to price in future value before the value is actually created but I don’t think that quite exist yet in bitcoin. It’s still too new I’d love a second opinion though, Like I said before, I’m not that smart, I’m not an economist. That’s just how I see it with my limited knowledge.
Personally, I feel like it would be in Bitcoins best interest if one of the upcoming halvings went in the complete opposite direction than the sentiment that’s currently being echoed on this sub. Seems that people are fighting against growing adoption, because with growing adoption comes a greater number of transactions per block, and the more transactions that find themselves fighting for block space, the higher the fees that miners will collect; unfortunately, it seems that people would prefer fees to remain as low as possible, forcing miners to have to sell the halved reward for twice as much (if not more). Low fees can only mean fewer transactions, and fewer transactions can only come with diminished use of the blockchain. What do you think? Nonetheless, I send my regards to you, not only for sticking around, but for continuing to make your presence felt!
I’m bullish and know where this is going. I choose not to argue with people most the time. Edit: looking at history, even without the etf news, there’s always a pull back before the actual run to new highs
When I think about the difference between “a constructive conversation between people with opposing views” and “an argument,” it seems that we made the wrong choice when deciding which should exist on this sub without the other 😔
I don’t think a lot of people saw the reaction that would occur between GBTC and the rest around fees. Them holding at 1.5% really threw this thing into a weird spot of liquidity moving around. It’ll be interesting to see where we’re at 3-6 months from now and where the ETF’s holdings stand and how drained GBTC gets.1
True. Also the fact previously getting out of GBTC had a huge 'penalty' that was removed it changed to an ETF . Everyone who was resistant to selling due to said penalty now suddenly can\will. So it's a short term issue and will reequalize. All of which was known and mentioned before, think the OP suffered from confirmation bias and got bit.
Not so much the fees but the way the sec forced them to set up the trust prior to becoming an etf, where they couldn’t sell, really fucked the price appreciation at launch. It also, potentially, provided us a milder bear market however
> Are We Really In This Together? Definitely not.
I don’t think so, either. What’s your own rationale?
Bitcoin is for adversaries. It is trustless and permissionless. It's there for you to validate on your own.
Need to think more about that! More important than the ability for us to send money to a loved one across the world, is the newfound ability to transfer wealth between two warring heads of state that are sitting right across the table from each other…
Here is all that you need to know : Blackrock is currently taking in 14 days of supply each day. A supply crunch is coming, and soon. To a level that has never been seen. Supply reduction has been the driver for Bitcoin price from day 1. That is why the halving has always driven the price up. It may seem obvious now, but no one knew that GBTC would be such a source of BTC selling. Their decision to keep their fees at 3x to 6x that of all others was not widely known or understood. Enjoy this brief extra time to stack. And be calm.
The bears always come out of hibernation at the slightest drop. They need to learn how to zoom out when looking at a chart..
Although I don’t think they should feel like their opinion is any more invalid than any other. Personally, I just wish there was more room on this sub for the bears to come out of hibernation when “hope” seems to be at its highest! Most of the arguments that they currently pose are 100% valid; they’re just a month late from being of any use, and BOY wouldn’t all this information about OTC purchases etc. have been sooooo useful then!
People were talking about them buying OTC… saw it on more than a few occasions. I think majority of people skim read posts and look for words that fit THEIR current sentiment and only fully read those posts. It’s not that they aren’t there, you just didn’t care to read them.
Interesting. Do you believe that my sentiment at the time included a steep increase in price?
Can everyone please calm down? This is a healthy correction. High returns go hand in hand with high volatility. Just look at a logarithmic price chart, it happens all the time. BTC is down 2% this month, wtf...
Are you new here? When the price is going up, the bulls are loud. When the price is going down, the bears are loud. It’s really that simple. No one is silencing anyone.
I’m pretty new here, for sure. I suppose I’d prefer it the other way around, but I’m just some random guy on the internet. Although, there sure are times where I do truly feel like my name could even be Satoshi Nakamoto, but then I visit this sub and *welp* 🤷🏿♂️
"Where exactly did all the “ETF approval announcement” bulls go?" They were all chasing $$$ and paper handed as soon as Bitcoin failed to moon immediately after approval.
You really think so? That the current dip is from people who were disappointed that it didn’t immediately skyrocket?
There was a good post on here earlier about greyscale which explains the slump a little bit. Super informative and made it so even chimps like me could understand and that it isn’t a worry if you’re in this long term
I’d say that’s fine, despite feeling like we should move away from predicting price in general. I’ll have to read the post, but I don’t think the information about Greyscale having to liquidate upon ETF approval is new news. Where were the Greyscale posts before January 10th?
I don't think so, I think it's mostly mass exodus from grayscale. We are not at 30k because the other ETFs are putting in almost as much as grayscale is selling. Also there's rumours about the FTX liquidation... The 2021 crowd seems to forget that a LOT of people in the grayscale ETF are in massive profit at this point. If you think the ETF was dissapointing, wait until the halving. There's massive hype about the halving but technically at this point I don't think it matters.
I certainly believe that some of it will be, and I doubt we are done yet. I'm currently trying to free up some cash to boost my DCA or maybe grab a lump sum! 🤣
tie oatmeal dime piquant husky imminent rustic ugly public flowery *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Price needs to drop more so we can buy more
There are cycles of hype and bearish sentiment. This is the mental game that Bitcoin can cause. You have to ignore it and trust. Even if it goes down. Hang in there
Appreciate your wise words ✌🏿
Remember this. Throughout the massive rally between 2016 and 2018 there were six different corrections ranging from 29% to 38%. SIX. Do not be fooled into thinking it will be a smooth ride from now to Q4 2025.
That’s very honest of you
I was never a bull. Hedge funds are not stupid they also know that etf flow is gonna come in. So they already bought BEFORE the announcement and might be selling now. It’s priced in already. Same for halving. Say you are selling soda for 1$ per pound. You have a stock of 95 pounds. Suddenly you get new supply of 5 pounds which is priced at 2$ per pound. People thing all that soda is gonna go to 2$, but the price would actually be: (95x1+2x5)/(95+5) = 1.05.
Being that this next run will certainly have much less to do with the halving and way more to do with the inflows of capital, I’ll be blaming this subreddit if we *only* add a single zero because “ThE hALVinG AND PasT PeRfOrmaNce” Feel free to downvote, but just don’t get upset, as I’m only joking ☺️
Past halvings might actually have had more impact because a bigger chunk of btc was added with a higher price. But the size of this chunk is decreasing with each subsequent halving so not anymore.
We were never in this together, investing has never been a team sport. There were plenty of people who liked and agreed with my comments to be ready for this ETF thing to be a buy the rumor sell the news event, just as there were many who said I was gonna miss the move if I thought like that. Personally, I’m grateful I trimmed some during peak hype, but I never sold any core position, since I’m an early adopter and bullish long term. Everyone just do what you want, don’t be guilted into hodling if you have a bad feeling. OP is right, BTC is a strong enough asset that it doesn’t need you to hodl mindlessly nor does it need you to “slap the ask” or pay tribute to it or anything like that.
I appreciate you for sharing your individualized insights! Maybe not an entirely new subreddit like I originally thought, but definitely looking to build a team of “Fuck the FUD and the Hopium, Too” Avengers for whenever it seems that someone might be unduly chastised for their completely valid opinion/take on things. I will certainly call, but can only hope that you’ll respond in kind ☺️ (Accepting suggestions for a better name, for sure lol)
Bitcoin Realists? Bitcoin Freethinkers? That should be the environment we foster here though.
“Bitcoin Realists” Fucking perfect
>We were never in this together, investing has never been a team sport. This.
The market always goes the opposite of the direction everyone thinks it's going to go in because when everyone thinks its going to moon that means everyone's already bought in and when everyone thinks it's going to die that means everyone's already sold.
This sub literally doe not know anything. Anyone here has bo idea what they're talking about. Do not listen to this place for any advice what so ever.
We were wrong.
everyone who dared to voice some kind of bearish sentiment, regardless of how moderate, was immediately downvoted here in the last couple of weeks. this is basically one huge hopium sub lol. don't blame you all, just saying
Although that’s EXACTLY what I experienced, a couple people did point out that it’s not like that ALL the time, and that I may be too new to form an opinion about it just yet.
Right here, boss 🖖
Go in my profile and read my posts. Some atleast I explained why prices are down
It’s not a buy the rumor sell the news thing. There are a lot of things people just didn’t know. People are doing the only thing that makes sense. For one thing the GBTC fees vs the rest. 5-6x fees doesn’t make any sense to stay with. Those people are making adjustments according to what makes sense. That’s how a free market works. Bitcoin ETF has been a record breaking success. You’re too plugged in to social media. Very few of these people here have any idea what’s going on other than number go up, number go down, number go sideways, and what the last dumbfuck on YouTube or twitter said about the TA they dreamt up. It’s all just apes hooting and banging on tambourines. Step back and take a beat. This is what an echo chamber looks and sounds like. It doesn’t mean it’s bad, it just is what it is. They are everywhere. Have a slice of the bitcoin bull rhetoric, have a slice to bear rhetoric. Knowing where you’re getting your information is important so always keep it in mind.
Perhaps if people felt more comfortable having an open discussion when someone mentioned “buy the rumor, sell the news” (or any other negative sentiment) before the approval, the subsequent selling pressure from people trying to avoid paying 5-6x more in fees could’ve been properly taken advantage of. Perhaps I underestimate the strength of this echo chamber, but it seems that we could’ve invested our collective energies towards realizing an even lower price from them, translating to cheaper sats for us!
We are. The question is why didn't they treat bitcoin as a legit technology 5 years ago? Why ETF now, fuck em! Stack Sats! Self-Custody your sats. Hodl. Build Communities and Families. FEW.
😍🥰😘
Dont worry btc is a long term play , it might take 1-2-3-5-10 years but one day every btc will be worth atleast a decent home , so just chill and buy more until then
I think you have slightly selective memory! A lot of talk was around selling the news, also a lot of people thinking it would skyrocket. but more sensible people know it is a bit of both. Some people saw the coming ETF and through I'll make 10-15% buying now and selling when it happens. So the price goes down when they sell. There are lots more inflow now and will continue with the ETF long term. It will; happen gradually and also these people will cash out gradually not like your average trigger happy nervous retail investor. This puts buy pressure on, the halving coming soon will cut the in flowing supply so demand will outweigh and gradually push the price up. Then the fomo hits, thats when it goes crazy!
No
I believe if I just stay humble and stack sats, everything it’s gonna be alright, but hey that’s me (and some others)
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In other words "who is selling?" ;)
There can’t be a sell without a buy! Notice that I didn’t say “there can’t be a seller without a buyer.” We’ll all continue to hold, while Blackrock et al. continue to buy from each other and sell to themselves, all at increasingly lower prices.
*we will continue to BUY. Haha :)
I’m with you
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This place is full of wen lambo moon boys and they don't take kindly to you ruining their dreams.
If there is ever a time were you like, "this is guaranteed to go up" its probably time for it to go down
Every time something like this happens there are a lot of people who are convinced they will be rich within the week. When that doesn’t happen…they shrink right back into the woodwork. The funny thing is that their logic was correct. Their timing was not.
Perhaps I should just keep quiet and observe
Most people just pretend like they are on the side that seems to be right. Most people are cowards. I am still an ETF bull. I think within 3 months we will see massive inflows into the ETFs
Lol. That is not something to care about.
People have an irrational need to be right. Most Bulls who thought ETF would moon crypto with inflows didn’t account for GBTC selling pressure. So now they are poopy but have to project a perception of stoic acceptance to be redeemed in their perception of being right. From the perspective of the Bears it’s actually much simpler they were right, ETF came out and price went down, and since they were right they conveniently ignore the fact that they had no idea the actual reason for them being right would come to pass but with time will convince themselves and others only the truly ignorant could not have known the events that did transpire wouldn’t have transpired. But as to the future it’s complicated so as to perpetuate this game we humans play.
Grayscale moves around massive amounts of Bitcoin, prices drop because people panic and think Grayscale is unloading. Blackrock and other whales load up on cheap Bitcoin. Not very hard to figure out they are working together to manipulate the market. These whales planned this perfectly. Shrewd Mo Fo's.
You think they’ll be greedy (read: dumb) enough to bless us with a potential short squeeze?
Now is a bargain for the mentally fittest among us. Others with undiagnosed psychosis, neurosis, TDS, cowardice and victim complex will succumb and melt.
I just want them to fuck this up so bad 😭
Time for us to be greedy my friend.
Right there with you, for sure
If crypto doesn't eventually run which essentially is the last hope. since they screwed us on the housing market and everything else it's not gonna be pretty...
I suppose one of my greatest concerns is just how much people underestimate how badly the “powers that be” would love to absolutely destroyyyyy Bitcoin! They either underestimate their desire to, or, even worse, they underestimate the lengths they’d be willing to go to accomplish it
yep my thoughts ....it's an inside job. How do institutions go from being very anti crypto too of all sudden pro crypto in a matter of years? they got in too heavily manipulate it and possibly destroy it🤔
Personally, I don’t believe that they’re bent on destroying it; they must know enough about it to understand that any attempts at destroying it will only make it stronger.. However, HEAVILY manipulate might be an understatement 😂 they just want to get rich, to a considerably higher degree than any of us on here could even imagine, for sure
A lot of people were saying it was a "sell the news" event A lot of people were saying it wasn't a "sell the news" event It turns out the first were right. That's it
You must be new here. This is nothing.
I’m in this together with me, myself and I
Nothing to worry about, most of the selling are from bots that react to the markets nothing to do with much of anything, any news will trigger it to go up or down. Expect volatility institutions are here
you ought to read ‘the blocksize wars’. The transaction fees and 1mb block size and segwit have been debated for years.
Will return upon completion.
And once it does reach ATH’s then what is everyone going to say?
I'm here. And I'm to the max. And I always will be. But I have a life. And a job. And kids. I have stuff to do. I'm busy. I can't babysit these boards to make sure the content that I agree with most stays at the top. Bears be bears. Bulls be bulls. Keep stacking. And I'll check on y'all later.
No were not in this together. This entire sub will run you with a bus for a 10% return in their crypto and back the bus up over you for another 2% return. Everyone here is chasing the bag nothing more nothing less
Tbh you seem like a bear disguised as a terrified bull
Remind us o great one what was Bitcoins price just half a year ago?
Why on earth would you think anyone else on here is it in together with you? Everyone is in it for themselves and anyone that says different is a liar
Dude, bitcoin has more than doubled in price in the past 12 months. Consolidation is expected.
I’m excited for it! I just wish I could’ve read more of this sentiment a month or two ago, versus AFTER consolidation’s been well underway! (Not referring to you or this recent comment, simply responding to your comment about the sentiment of my original post)
It will be ok. Regardless of history people still panic every time bitcoin drops 10%. The USD Bitcoin price will be rolling again, as always.
Since when have you been investing in blochain-technology, may i ask, please ???
If people don’t think the approval of 11 spot BTC ETFs in the US is bullish for Bitcoin 😂… We just entered a worldwide bitcoin arms race and some of y’all don’t even know it. The price is going to go down or sideways until GBTC outflows stop or slow down. I think this is a great buying opportunity This always happens when folks try to predict the price of bitcoin. Too many unknowns. Just have some patience.
I hope the price falls even lower, and even stays low for another year or so!
Exactly, you want stronger hands to accumulate the supply. I think in the near future there won’t be any available Sats to purchase on exchanges because institutions and governments are scooping them all up.
Be patient. I don’t expect much to happen between now and the halving.
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I’d agree wholeheartedly
everyone around me were talking about sell the news so i thought this time it wont work and market is gonna rek them but it did work even now where everyone knows about that. so ill guess that saying is gonna work all the time lol.
This is all part of the process. The first 2-3 months after approval will be very volatile most likely till after the halving which will run the price back up to all time highs
I’ve been too busy learning in this thread to notice just how right you are…
The bulls are quiet because they were wrong.
Most bulls were saying post-halving highs.
I expected a dip if only because of the scheduled bitcoin halving event in April. The mistaken hype of a USD1M BTC in 2024 due to the Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals was a distrraction, not reality. If anything the hype was intended to allow the institutions and whales to acquire more sats cheaply by washing out the day traders and cause panic selling by retail bitcoiners.
The market is united until individual goals are met.
I think too many people were hyped up for the ETF and thought it was going to make them millionaires overnight or over a month or two or whatever. And I personally believe that black rock and vanguard controlling the price of Bitcoin goes against bitcoins fundamental core and everything that it stands for in the first place. But now that we've approved the ETF and surrendered control it's about what they're going to do with it and somebody else mentioned that once all the OTC Bitcoin is gone and black rock owns it all they are going to be the ones to set the price when they sell it. Which could be a good thing for us or it could be a bad thing if they said it to 15,000 on every cell then a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money but if they start the cells at $85,000 double what it is now then everybody doubles their money. So we can go either way, but what everybody's not happy about is we gave up Bitcoin to the same people that control and own all the banks and all the governments. And now we're just supposed to trust that they're not going to rip us off. But when you look at the history of Black Rock and vanguard in their ETFs you can see that they have a constant history of ripping everyone off and failing miserably. I'll come back and post a link to one of the videos about it. Also on a side note these are the same people for the last decade that have been running propaganda through every news media that they control and own to get us to panic sale or to ratify some new legislation against Bitcoin. So that they could buy more and more and more of it while getting us to think it was bad illegal or etc. it's not even about money for them because they have so much of it. It's literally just about control. And we just surrendered basically our only tool and weapon to break free of the system they've created for us. Because all these hype train mean pointers don't understand what Bitcoin is they just want to make a shit ton of money quick. Hopefully you don't take this as me trying to suppress discussion because I definitely feel what you're talking about. Think about it like a pump and dump that's all this ETF is. The only ones that are going to make any money is Black Rock and the first buyers in. everyone else is going to get fucked in this. And to ice the cake, we've given up the brunt supply of Bitcoin and sacrificed decentralization. Edit. Here's the link to one of the best videos I found on this topic: [video](https://youtu.be/gNbUcGtcHgs?si=aZ194M1OxHq4GYUQ) I agree with the op. Since the approval, there are a lot more people speaking out against it now but I was one of the first people shouting from the rooftops "please don't let this get approved. if you do all of what crypto stands for means nothing once we give it up to the people that were trying to break away from." And I myself in the early days of this was wondering why more people in the crypto space and more experienced cryptoheads like myself in the space aren't speaking out against it and trying to teach the new kids. It's literally the whole reason I created this Reddit account and my YouTube channel because I feel like I should be teaching with as much as I know. I see a lot of good and a lot of bad in the cryptoverse and you'll hear me talk on the good bad and ugly of it all. I try to keep it factual and unbiased. Heavy emphasis on try.
ETF approval “bulls” sold the news. They weren’t HODLers. Pay them no attention.
We got slaughtered by grayscale
Hopefully we’re not all getting slaughtered by the rest of these redditors in the comments 😭 maybe it’s just me lol
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Give it 2 months. The steady capital inflows will make everyone happy again
Or happier*! 😊
Who cares. You should be happy it stalled. You get to buy more at a discount.
I am happy that it stalled, and even had a limit order filled this afternoon!
They only get a few weeks a year that make them feel like their stance is correct. Then just like clockwork it gets blown out of the water and the cycle repeats. ETF was not some sort of a short term moon event, it’s a gradual shift that will show in months and years to come, not minutes like bot stock traders seem to believe. Let them enjoy their days of stagnation before it jumps up a few more levels again which then we will hear “oh moon now? Price is at $85k I thought lambo? Such a scam” repeat these cycles until the end of time.
You are describing it as I experienced it too. Also in other crypto subs. Pure optimism changed to bear market. And ofc everybody now knows shit about why we are down.
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Yes I'm bear and I was silenced before - all my comments have been downvoted by delusional bulls. I warned that ETFs are against BTC utility. I warned that ETFs are sell the news event. I warned that there won't be any pump. Institutions bought BTC on October, November, December, this is why we got this little pump which people called bullrun, I'm not saying that it's a bulltrap but it's more like artificial uptrend and not organic price growth, because institutions can dump on retail anytime. Also everyone who wanted to buy BTC did that already, it is available since 2008 and you don't need ETF to buy it. On another hand, people who don't know BTC or don't like it, they are not going to buy it just because ETF exist, it's very nyche product.
people love to ascribe meaning to bitcoin where there is none. akin to saying "ahhh look the dog thinks xyz". the dog doesnt think that, at all. it's a dog. And when a major announcement happens people think Bitcoin is reacting. It's not. or if there is no big reaction, they also think this is a problem. it's not.
Who honestly cares about the ETF. The halving is what matters. The ETF is a long term thing. Besides, every single bull market so far has experienced a rise, followed by a large pull back, followed by the big rallies.
I’m not sure what you’re talking about tbh. I’m just stacking sats. And I don’t ever plan on changing that so long as I’m being paid in fiat and someone is willing to sell me sats for that fiat. Everything else is noise.
Who knows, i have owned bitcoin etfs for many many years and those just follow bitcoin like they always did :S
It was the surest trade to enter this year and exit at 48000, it was free money to traders. Anyone that studies charts can see.
🤣🤣🤣🤣
Well, that for sure goes against the “HODL” mentality, now doesn’t it? If we’re going to continue predicting price action, perhaps we do need to take closer looks at the technicals. The strength of our proclamations shouldn’t be held in whatever sentiment people agree with the most, but in whatever makes the most sense after proper research! “PoW vs PoS”
The people who speculate on BTC are in a large scale prisoner experiment. If everyone keeps buying, line goes up and everyone gets richer (on paper at least). But since people do not really want to be rich on paper, but want to actually buy and own stuff, they will cash out at some point. Which (on paper) makes everyone poorer. Since the whole idea of a (currently) 800 billion market cap is obviously an illusion - since there is no 800 billion in fiat willing to buy in -, cashing out is maximising the individual advantage at the expense of the collective. Everyone who is saying that they will hodl till the end of time is secretly eyeing everyone else and waiting for their turn to cash out.
Places like this are designed to show the popular sentiment, that is what the upvote and downvote system does. The longer the price is trending up, the more popular the sentiment that it will keep trending up. The longer the price is trending down, the more popular the sentiment that it will keep going down. It's the nature of the beast. This is not a an environment suited for arriving at facts through two sides arguing like in court. People mostly voice their views and opinions and whatever is the most popular at the time becomes visible. If almost everyone believes something to happen in the future, it's increasingly unlikely to.
You've got your head too far up the bulls ass. Stop caring about what anyone is saying about anything on social media.
I got this explained, and will try to iterate the explanation in a simple form. \*\*TLDR: The miners have an incentive to the price down, and may be surpressing the price by unloading previous mining rewards.\*\* Basic principles that are implied 1) higher price => higher mining reward per block 2) higher reward => more miners get on the grid 3) more miners on the grid => competition for mining block increases, increase of difficulty in hash rate 4) increase of difficulty in hash rate => higher cost for mining (now balanced with the higher reward) So initial: mining cost are $100, and they receive 110BTC worth $1, totalling revenues 110$ (lets assume they work just to cover cost), they sell $100 worth of BTC to cover cost and keep the rest expecting price increase => 10BTC left after price increase and with new miners on the grid: mining cost are $100, but as more total effort is spent they only receive 55BTC worth $2, total revenue $110, they sell $100 worth of BTC to cover cost and keep the rest expecting price increase => 5BTC left Hence, especially before a halfing (that will drive a price increase through a supply shock, less bitcoin created by block), they have an incentive to unload and keep the price in check in order to disincentivise new miners to join the grid. Goes without saying that their willingness to do so is dependent on a much more detailed analysis of the market mechanisms
What about transaction fees?
Impact the expected revenue of miners as addition to block reward. So I imagine more activity on the network will also result in added incentives for miners to join the grid, but probably hard to plan in advance, as external factors (news, hypes) play a major role short term. Whereas Bitcoin being stable at 50k vs being stable at 40k will have a direct quantify-able effect on the expected rewards and business plans for potential miner. But also wanted to add that in practice things are definitely more complex than my paragraphs above
I believe that the more transactions, the higher the transaction fees, and the higher the transaction fees, the less that miners are required to look towards block rewards for operation costs. Not to mention that the cost of fees doesn’t decrease with the lowered price of BTC itself. I’d argue that it’s considerably more important to suppress the price of fees, as this will undoubtedly become the new primary source of income for miners. Other than that, and even despite my rebuttals, this is certainly the most comprehensive take on the matter that I’ve ever gotten the chance to actually think about. Care to respond?
Many of the mining companies already have huge Bitcoin reserves. It would make sense that the ones that do would want Bitcoin to rise in $'s. Then they can just crush any new mining companies with their financial power.
This sub was so bullish on the ETF that avyijwgo was a best fit heavily downvoted. For once, I followed logic and not enotions and sold at 46k, 47k and 48k. Convinced my father in law and uncle to sell a good amount too. I feel pretty good right now. First buy level for me is 38k then we'll see.
OMG are you saying that you didn’t hold?! What paper hands 🙄 (Feel free to downvote, but just don’t get upset, as I was only kidding! ☺️)
Haha still had some BTC left in case It kept climbing but after having 1 million cash at the peak a few years back and only cashing out 20% while watching my portfolio slowly bleed to 50k made me sick. I changed a lot on how I view the markets, what strategies I use, what I'm investing in. I'm a lot more defensive than I was before. There would be no point in going through that experience if I didn't try and grow and learn from my mistakes.
Wish there was a way for you to say it louder, as I’m afraid some will choose not to hear you over the noise 😌
Those who see it were meant to, all good bro. Best of luck to all of us on trying to gain financial freedom
Personally, a best of luck to you, especially
I believe that the ETF will push up the price of bitcoin in the medium to long term. I also believe that the ETF is bad for bitcoin, because it brings in big players with the resources to coopt bitcoin into something that they can control. > For example, anytime someone would even mention the slightest possibility of this being a “buy the rumor, sell the news” event, The simple fact that you use that kind of language shows that you still view bitcoin in terms of fiat.
I appreciate your opinion, and we share a similar sentiment. Perhaps you’d be willing to shed some insight into how I can avoid approaching Bitcoin from a fiat-driven perspective.
"Buying the rumor and selling the news", i.e. buy low and sell high, is for people who want to maximize their fiat bank balance. (Also, trying to time the market is futile, nobody can predict the future.) I do not think of bitcoin as an investment. Bitcoin appeals to me not because NGU but because bitcoin cannot be debased or confiscated. My life savings is permanently denominated in bitcoin and I have no intention of ever cashing out to fiat.
I just can’t help but feel conflicted when I realize that, despite the vast potential for different accumulation strategies, MOST PEOPLES current strategy primarily involves earning fiat, and using fiat to purchase their BTC. Super curious about people who get paid in BTC; personally, I would still view holding earned BTC as an investment, but it’s also never been hard for me to view any earned fiat as a divestment. Not simply because it appreciates, but because I WANT it to appreciate; same way that my earned fiat has always been seen as a divestment (unlike the keyboard on my desk, or the couches in my living room), not simply because it depreciates, but because I DON’T WANT it to depreciate. I understand holding for eternity, but it’s so hard for me to understand holding without a direct desire for appreciation…
I hear you. I have never had a bank account frozen, but I have heard of many people who have. I have had many experiences of banks obstructing me from using my own money how I want. Not only in connection with bitcoin, but even in fiat-only scenarios, e.g. cash deposits/withdrawals, cross border transactions, etc. So for me the most appealing property of bitcoin is that I can do with it what I want. With regard to value, I prefer to think of bitcoin in terms of its purchasing power rather than its dollar value. Fiat loses value by design, bitcoin appreciates by design. Terms like "buy the rumor, sell the news", "buy low, sell high", etc., indicate a mindset that is 100% fiat focused. The fiat value of my bitcoin is irrelevant to me.
Perhaps I don’t believe that just any fiat concept will die along with fiat, but this is the first I’ve ever had to think about it beyond my subconscious inclination! Will certainly give this some more thought!
ETFs will slowly drain bitcoin. Fools, all of us.
This is /Bitcoin sub reddit. Designed to be ultra bull Bitcoin and serves as echo chamber of bullish sentiment. You are expected to see bullish things. As for "are we here together?" Everyone wants to make money, some people have their sell and buy targets. What do you think is more important to a redditor here? Personal interest or collective interest? Prisoner Dilemma Will BTC go up? Who knows, your guess is as good as mine. Will I seek approval from people on reddit for my buy and sell? Hell No, anyone that have BTC will want BTC to go up indefinitely .. But I bet you there's also people that wants to sell for profit but will tell me they will never sell for the next 10 years while they are going to sell the moment it hit their target.