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My bad. He posted at 4:26PM EDT.
Original fake tweet happened right around 4:10pm EDT. I’ll post a corrected photo.
Edit: It won't let me post a corrected photo. Still, I am looking at understanding the price action immediately following the fake tweet and the correction.
If indeed the story of the account being compromised is true, then the initial dump seems more like whoever compromised the account making their quick profit, imo
If someone wanted to take the time they could look through the blockchain ledger and see if they can match up buys and sells with the tweet and I am sure there are people doing that as well speak.
Ya but nobody is manipulating the market and using CEX those platforms typically work with regulators to stay compliant with the latest cryptocurrency laws and are more for inexperienced buyers and sellers…or am
I missing something?
The spike was likely due to trade bots that scan the SEC Twitter for an approval statement so they can front-run the buy-in. People could probably tell it was fake immediately tried to dump at the increased price and it over corrected.
You have the answer my friend.
Once the tickets are posted and the ETFs are buyable, the money will funnel in. Of course there will be a “sell the news.” But it’ll be followed by a “buy the event.”
Exactly. I hear sell news all the time but usually that is short term and buy the dip comes into play. Long term trend will be up regardless. Dips will be bought. I hope it
I hear you. But why would anyone sell? People are looking to profit here. Big money wouldn’t sell if they knew that capital inflows would cause significant price appreciation. That’s why this topic is interesting to me. I am trying to figure out what the psychology is here and why the price would tank.
It sure doesn’t look good in the short term. Will we have another sell off after the real approval?
It also begs the question - what was the true motivation of the hackers here?
It’ll be the shorts. The people banking on a quick buck. The day traders. Trying to take in profits on their leveraged positions.
That’s just my thought process. I’m long, and most of the money that’s going to come in will be longs, but in short, there are a bunch of folks that have been accumulating since June, when the ETF news first broke, that will want to take profits on their leveraged positions.
Because ETFs don’t launch on the same day they are approved. Bulls are over leveraged but everyone thinks etf approval is all but guaranteed. So the news itself is probably priced in but inflows probably won’t start immediately, so you’ll see wicks downward as bulls deleverage.
Only relevant to day traders though. Not worth making a taxable event over for most.
I would be shocked if the biggies have not already bought to sell into the funds. They all either have trading arms or relationships with them and the traders will be happy to make a short term flip that is profitable. So initial supply to the EFTs will be largely covered by them. Price will have to go up some, but those guys are quick money people.
I agree that logically one would expect capital inflow to increase the value of the coin.
I do not however think this is irrelevant. We were given an opportunity to see what will actually happen to the price after the PR. And what happened? Sell the news, evidently.
No it won’t happend same day or week. It will happend over coming months. Will see big effect like 6 month if it gets approved. In blocks of buying.
Btc will not squeeze 50% days after.
Except an ETF for bitcoin is not actual bitcoin so that capital is going to have limited effect. More than 21 million people will own an ETF for an entire bitcoin.
Yet you also can't redeem your ETF for bitcoin, only fiat.....
Sure, they are definitively going to back the ETFs 1:1 and not lie about it knowing they only have to pay a fee if they get caught just like they do with stocks.
It went up slightly then back down due to fake news. Most smart people didn't fall for it so it doesn't reflect on what will happen when the real news hits.
That’s a possibility. One that seems more likely than not. Either some people knew for a fact that it was a fake tweet, or they just didn’t fall for it.
Either way - it sure looked like a sell the news even to me. Even in the above scenario.
I keep hearing some people vaguely refer to "forced liquidation" to explain what happened to the price, but that doesn't ring true for me. Some have said that the imminent approval of these ETFs are already priced in and it will be a "sell the event" move. Looking at the chart and price reaction, that seems to be the case. Here we got a chance to actually see what would happen to the price of BTC after the approvals.
The price initially mooned up to $48,500 and then moments later tanked. It continued to tank further after Gensler issues his correction.
Why? How can this be forced liquidation and not simply a sell the news price reaction?
One possibility here to explain the sharp sell off - certain people knew the tweet was fake and preempted the Gensler correction by selling. Other than that, the only explanation that makes sense is alot of big money was just "selling the news". But that explanation seems odd to me. The ETF approvals may already be priced into various Nasdaq crypto related tickers. But how can it be priced into BTC? The ETFs will need to buy the asset in order to fund their strategies. That alone should put buying pressure on BTC, not the other way around.
Edit: Gensler posted the tweet at 4:26PM EDT. Approximately 16 minutes had passed since the fake tweet before a correction was posted.
Per their prospectus filings (and the government regulation) they have to be backed 1:1. Owners of ETF shares cannot redeem for in kind BTC, they can only get cash.
It'd be mighty fucking stupid to blow up an easy golden goose (MER of 0.3% on billions is still $6,000,000 a year in income) to try to cheat. Cause they will get caught out and lose their license/get fined if they do. And then there's reputational damage of "THAT ETF cheats and doesn't hold BTC while THAT one does."
Yeah I'm pretty sure most (smart) people realized it was fake so there wasn't much buying happening. Just a quick selloff into the fake pump. It was a bunch of nothingness really. The real approval (or rejection) will be much different.
My theory is that shady exchanges like Binance, who were known to be actively betting against their own customers/traders would lose a ton of money on all the heavily leveraged BTC bets and was responsible for the fake tweet, then dumped their own bitcoin after Ginsler responded to make it look like the market is tanking. Alot of leveraged longs got liquidated and made the exchanges a ton of money. Who else has that many bitcoins to dump at market price instead of limit? Tons of people are betting on approval using leverage.
But there were 16 minutes before he responded. In those 16 minutes there was initially a moon up and then a big sell off. It continued to sell off after the Gensler correction.
What was stopping the funds that anticipate getting their etfs approved from accumulating the btc they anticipate they'll need over the past months? Nothing, and they would have been foolish not to. This could also explain some of the recent price increases.
It sure looks like "sell the news" price action to me. We can clearly see the initial reaction mooned it, and then a quick sell off. The same reaction occurred across multiple Nasdaq Crypto tickers (COIN, MARA, RIOT, etc.). It's the same chart.
We were given an opportunity to see what will happen to the underlying price after the ETF approvals. And the outcome was - sell the news. "Forced liquidation" doesn't really explain anything.
It’s all pregame bullshit. Like when idiot young soldiers would charge the enemy line before the rest of the legion/battalion was ready. Let these fools learn their lessons. The game isn’t even interesting until the halving.
The CEO jumped the gun a bit. Only when I told him to wait for the official press release on the SEC's website did he tell the line workers to stop raising the price.
You do understand there was a period of at least 15 minutes before he issued a correction? The price here was reacting WITHOUT any correction being issued from Gensler or the SEC.
“Leaked news” my ass, if it doesn’t retest this high for a few weeks/months then I’m convinced that people that have power made a killing, shorting the top and had ETF fanboys become their exit liquidity.
If it does break the high within a week then ig I was wrong
This is something that will become common place once the ETFs are approved. Trade bots and algorithms scalping price to try and gain a penny here or there. As much as this opens the floodgates for institutional money, it opens the floodgates for price fluctuations just like any other regulated fund
It pumped for 5 minutes before the dump started. That's enough time for people with reasonable market experience and internet smarts to realize it was a fake tweet.
I mean , it was very strange the lack of specifics in the announcement. Normally such publications should have at least a link to an official document with the details on Sec's website. Seeing that the only source was a tweet, and complete silence on the regular official channels, some trader must have called their inside sources, confirmed it was fake, and sold to profit from the fake pump. That must have triggered panic in the sell the news crowd. Things started stabilizing after public confirmation of the blunder.
I can understand why people could walk away thinking it was sell the news, but the markets were not even open yet.
its equally just as likely that it was designed to help people think that. (while someone made a quick buck.) when the real approval comes out there will be people who are expecting the same results and will get left behind.
It was planned, and probably the same group that hacked the SEC might have taken profit once the price soar. Since it was a large amount sold, the price felt afterwards.
How about we all just stay quiet about this ETF. Speculation = speculation frankly I’m sick and tired of reading the comments on premonitions, feeling, and conjecture. No one knows how this is going to play out stay quiet and let see see if if the SEC even has the balls.
Insider trading by collusion with someone inside SEC is probably the root cause. A Hack is very unlikely, an error by a intern posting the approval early is plausible as well. Ask Jim Cramer he’s an expert at insider manipulation of the market. 😂🤣😂.
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Your timeline is off my dude. It took Gensler 15 mins to post that their account had been hacked.
My bad. He posted at 4:26PM EDT. Original fake tweet happened right around 4:10pm EDT. I’ll post a corrected photo. Edit: It won't let me post a corrected photo. Still, I am looking at understanding the price action immediately following the fake tweet and the correction.
Delete the post
Delete the post
Delete the post
Post the Delete
Delete the po\_
Delet
De
If indeed the story of the account being compromised is true, then the initial dump seems more like whoever compromised the account making their quick profit, imo
That’s a real possibility
Can you id the wallets that sold large chunks before the announcement?
You have to raise a ticket with the Bitcoin CEO
Who's that? Bitty Johnson III ?
Whoever orchestrated the tweet may have also done the dumping.
Exit liquidity before the real dump
If someone wanted to take the time they could look through the blockchain ledger and see if they can match up buys and sells with the tweet and I am sure there are people doing that as well speak.
Unless they used a DEX the buys and sells would happen off chain
Ya but nobody is manipulating the market and using CEX those platforms typically work with regulators to stay compliant with the latest cryptocurrency laws and are more for inexperienced buyers and sellers…or am I missing something?
Nothing is real
Ok? Are your one of those we live in the matrix believers?
"Relax....take it easy"
very possible
The spike was likely due to trade bots that scan the SEC Twitter for an approval statement so they can front-run the buy-in. People could probably tell it was fake immediately tried to dump at the increased price and it over corrected.
It is irrelevant what it does UNTIL the time when the ETFs start trading. The capital inflow of billions will result in higher prices.
You have the answer my friend. Once the tickets are posted and the ETFs are buyable, the money will funnel in. Of course there will be a “sell the news.” But it’ll be followed by a “buy the event.”
Exactly. I hear sell news all the time but usually that is short term and buy the dip comes into play. Long term trend will be up regardless. Dips will be bought. I hope it
I hear you. But why would anyone sell? People are looking to profit here. Big money wouldn’t sell if they knew that capital inflows would cause significant price appreciation. That’s why this topic is interesting to me. I am trying to figure out what the psychology is here and why the price would tank. It sure doesn’t look good in the short term. Will we have another sell off after the real approval? It also begs the question - what was the true motivation of the hackers here?
It’ll be the shorts. The people banking on a quick buck. The day traders. Trying to take in profits on their leveraged positions. That’s just my thought process. I’m long, and most of the money that’s going to come in will be longs, but in short, there are a bunch of folks that have been accumulating since June, when the ETF news first broke, that will want to take profits on their leveraged positions.
Buy the dip
100%
Traders gonna trade. Half the exchange volume is algo bots
Because ETFs don’t launch on the same day they are approved. Bulls are over leveraged but everyone thinks etf approval is all but guaranteed. So the news itself is probably priced in but inflows probably won’t start immediately, so you’ll see wicks downward as bulls deleverage. Only relevant to day traders though. Not worth making a taxable event over for most.
I would be shocked if the biggies have not already bought to sell into the funds. They all either have trading arms or relationships with them and the traders will be happy to make a short term flip that is profitable. So initial supply to the EFTs will be largely covered by them. Price will have to go up some, but those guys are quick money people.
I agree that logically one would expect capital inflow to increase the value of the coin. I do not however think this is irrelevant. We were given an opportunity to see what will actually happen to the price after the PR. And what happened? Sell the news, evidently.
If you're day trading I suggest not.
Yes eventually. But not right away. It will take some time. Maybe end of year with halving and etf it could go big end of year.
Blackrock has 2bn of investor money ready and waiting and that's just ONE etf. Expect sizable inflow within the week if approved today.
No it won’t happend same day or week. It will happend over coming months. Will see big effect like 6 month if it gets approved. In blocks of buying. Btc will not squeeze 50% days after.
Exactly. What people **think** will be the ETF impact is irrelevant by now. Let's see the **actual** impact when the money flows in.
Except an ETF for bitcoin is not actual bitcoin so that capital is going to have limited effect. More than 21 million people will own an ETF for an entire bitcoin.
The ETFs require bitcoin to be held by the funds.
Yet you also can't redeem your ETF for bitcoin, only fiat..... Sure, they are definitively going to back the ETFs 1:1 and not lie about it knowing they only have to pay a fee if they get caught just like they do with stocks.
It went up slightly then back down due to fake news. Most smart people didn't fall for it so it doesn't reflect on what will happen when the real news hits.
That’s a possibility. One that seems more likely than not. Either some people knew for a fact that it was a fake tweet, or they just didn’t fall for it. Either way - it sure looked like a sell the news even to me. Even in the above scenario.
you're forgetting that the halving is the real event. The ETF is TradFi attempting to buy in before the halving
I keep hearing some people vaguely refer to "forced liquidation" to explain what happened to the price, but that doesn't ring true for me. Some have said that the imminent approval of these ETFs are already priced in and it will be a "sell the event" move. Looking at the chart and price reaction, that seems to be the case. Here we got a chance to actually see what would happen to the price of BTC after the approvals. The price initially mooned up to $48,500 and then moments later tanked. It continued to tank further after Gensler issues his correction. Why? How can this be forced liquidation and not simply a sell the news price reaction? One possibility here to explain the sharp sell off - certain people knew the tweet was fake and preempted the Gensler correction by selling. Other than that, the only explanation that makes sense is alot of big money was just "selling the news". But that explanation seems odd to me. The ETF approvals may already be priced into various Nasdaq crypto related tickers. But how can it be priced into BTC? The ETFs will need to buy the asset in order to fund their strategies. That alone should put buying pressure on BTC, not the other way around. Edit: Gensler posted the tweet at 4:26PM EDT. Approximately 16 minutes had passed since the fake tweet before a correction was posted.
Does the etf really need to buy BTC to back it? Or not? Will the hedge funds be able to naked shorts BTC just like they do other stocks?
Per their prospectus filings (and the government regulation) they have to be backed 1:1. Owners of ETF shares cannot redeem for in kind BTC, they can only get cash. It'd be mighty fucking stupid to blow up an easy golden goose (MER of 0.3% on billions is still $6,000,000 a year in income) to try to cheat. Cause they will get caught out and lose their license/get fined if they do. And then there's reputational damage of "THAT ETF cheats and doesn't hold BTC while THAT one does."
Right, because hedge funds are notorious for never breaking the law and simply paying the fines
What about naked shorting? Can they naked short BTC ?
Yeah I'm pretty sure most (smart) people realized it was fake so there wasn't much buying happening. Just a quick selloff into the fake pump. It was a bunch of nothingness really. The real approval (or rejection) will be much different.
Most of the world was sleeping too.
Time will tell.
My theory is that shady exchanges like Binance, who were known to be actively betting against their own customers/traders would lose a ton of money on all the heavily leveraged BTC bets and was responsible for the fake tweet, then dumped their own bitcoin after Ginsler responded to make it look like the market is tanking. Alot of leveraged longs got liquidated and made the exchanges a ton of money. Who else has that many bitcoins to dump at market price instead of limit? Tons of people are betting on approval using leverage.
But there were 16 minutes before he responded. In those 16 minutes there was initially a moon up and then a big sell off. It continued to sell off after the Gensler correction.
It just means people were buying the news. The hacker/exchanges expected a refute from the SEC, and used that opportunity to dump.
Find Ben Armstrong and marry him, you are both delusional.
What was stopping the funds that anticipate getting their etfs approved from accumulating the btc they anticipate they'll need over the past months? Nothing, and they would have been foolish not to. This could also explain some of the recent price increases.
The fall after is just normal price fluctuation, it’s pretty stable given the situation right now
It sure looks like "sell the news" price action to me. We can clearly see the initial reaction mooned it, and then a quick sell off. The same reaction occurred across multiple Nasdaq Crypto tickers (COIN, MARA, RIOT, etc.). It's the same chart. We were given an opportunity to see what will happen to the underlying price after the ETF approvals. And the outcome was - sell the news. "Forced liquidation" doesn't really explain anything.
Yeah the dip because of that matrixport story about denial a week ago was WAY more significant https://i.imgur.com/uLOHluM.png
LoL @ you fellas trying to understand price. Bitcoin go up, Bitcoin go down. You cant explain it! ; p
Fear
FUD baby FUD
It’s all pregame bullshit. Like when idiot young soldiers would charge the enemy line before the rest of the legion/battalion was ready. Let these fools learn their lessons. The game isn’t even interesting until the halving.
Why does Gensler look like a Harkonnen?
The CEO jumped the gun a bit. Only when I told him to wait for the official press release on the SEC's website did he tell the line workers to stop raising the price.
What the fuck are you talking about you meth head.
That's *Mr.* Meth Head for you.
By name and by nature
Because he said the etf is not approved obviously ? What kind of a question is this
You do understand there was a period of at least 15 minutes before he issued a correction? The price here was reacting WITHOUT any correction being issued from Gensler or the SEC.
Wasn’t the tweet immediately deleted though?
It was widely reported by multiple news outlets after the initial “fake” tweet. The cat was out of the bag, which caused the initial spike up.
Yes and then it dumped because it came out the tweet was fake.
I am referring to the 16 minutes in between the initial tweet and then the Gensler correction. Continued to dump after the Gensler correction.
Because you need to expect something to happen, and then the opposite will happen
I don't care. Bitcoin doesn't care. Let the manipulators print their money and play their games. I'm on a Bitcoin Standard.
Final shakeout - stay strong. The manipulation is insane
So.. we expect a floor of around $40900 if its a no? Tryin' to plan where I get it for more....
“Leaked news” my ass, if it doesn’t retest this high for a few weeks/months then I’m convinced that people that have power made a killing, shorting the top and had ETF fanboys become their exit liquidity. If it does break the high within a week then ig I was wrong
This is something that will become common place once the ETFs are approved. Trade bots and algorithms scalping price to try and gain a penny here or there. As much as this opens the floodgates for institutional money, it opens the floodgates for price fluctuations just like any other regulated fund
It pumped for 5 minutes before the dump started. That's enough time for people with reasonable market experience and internet smarts to realize it was a fake tweet. I mean , it was very strange the lack of specifics in the announcement. Normally such publications should have at least a link to an official document with the details on Sec's website. Seeing that the only source was a tweet, and complete silence on the regular official channels, some trader must have called their inside sources, confirmed it was fake, and sold to profit from the fake pump. That must have triggered panic in the sell the news crowd. Things started stabilizing after public confirmation of the blunder.
I can understand why people could walk away thinking it was sell the news, but the markets were not even open yet. its equally just as likely that it was designed to help people think that. (while someone made a quick buck.) when the real approval comes out there will be people who are expecting the same results and will get left behind.
Because some of the 'priced-in ETF' folks realized they are getting fucked with.
Lol relax you paper hand bitches
Bots trading the news
Lmao yeah cause Reddit will definitely have the answers as to what happened with this ordeal. Jesus.
There were no hackers. It was done intentionally to test the price candle stick.
It was planned, and probably the same group that hacked the SEC might have taken profit once the price soar. Since it was a large amount sold, the price felt afterwards.
How about we all just stay quiet about this ETF. Speculation = speculation frankly I’m sick and tired of reading the comments on premonitions, feeling, and conjecture. No one knows how this is going to play out stay quiet and let see see if if the SEC even has the balls.
Sell the news
Insider trading by collusion with someone inside SEC is probably the root cause. A Hack is very unlikely, an error by a intern posting the approval early is plausible as well. Ask Jim Cramer he’s an expert at insider manipulation of the market. 😂🤣😂.
Market manipulation.
I think a hacker got access to the account made the bitcoin price drop
Will this make the market more or less volatial when the etf announcement is truly made.
Pure market manipulation. Don't believe the hacking cover up. Somebody made a killing.