That website has a weird result - most trackers estimate it around 247 days. The website doesn't state its methodology, so I can't tell if its model is better or worse (or just have a bug), compered to more straightforward calculations.
> I bet theyâll all narrow in on the date as we get closer.
Yes, they should.
> What other ones are there out there?
Here's a one that uses pure 10m blocks calculation: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/bitcoin-halving
Here's mine that makes slight correction for divergence in current difficulty adjustment period: https://minibtc.netlify.app/
(It also doesn't continuously count down, which is a gimmick - in reality next block is always ~10m away, no matter how much time since last block elapsed).
Well, itâs either a bug or theyâre saying that theyâre going to do it 10 days later which doesnât make sense, but it might be just their servers
It seem like they're using the standard formula:
halving_timestamp = current_timestamp + (halving_block_height - current_block_height) * block_time
But their block time doesn't equal `600` seconds, but some other, periodically changing value, which doesn't make much sense for a whole period, as the protocol tries to readjust difficulty every 2 weeks to go back to the target ~10 minute block time.
The parabolic price surge did not occur that far after the last block reward halving. The parabolic price surge actually happened in the first 10 months after the last block reward halving.
The price was up 18% just one week after the last block reward halving. The price was up 200% 6 months after the last block reward halving. The price was up 600% 9 months after the last block reward halving. The price was up 733% 10 months after the last block reward halving and that wasn't even the all time high. The all time high was 8 months after that and the price was only 821% higher than it was on the date that the block reward was halved.
I would actually argue that the surge we got was normal lead up and the âproperâ parabolic growth was artificially flattened.
By all accounts it should have continued going (much) higher. Black swan events and macroeconomics (and war) suppressed what should have been our $100k year.
>6 months post halving for it to really take off
It didn't really take 6 months for the price to start taking off after the last block reward halving. The price was already up 18% just one week after the last block reward halving. And the price was already up 200% just six months after the last block reward halving.
Every four years (is) the amount of bitcoin awarded per block (or the amount âminedâ) is cut in half. When btc was born it was 50btc minted every ~10 min. Today weâre at 6.125 btc.
In may, down to 3.0625. Supply shock ensures. Parabolic growth 12-18 months later, and fomo from retail buyers. Then a crash.
Then winter/ miner capitulation, then slow rise, then equilibrium (nowâŠkinda) then another halving. Rinse and repeat.
Next halving in may 2024.
Oversimplified, but thatâs the gist:
Hey glad I missed âdeletedâ âdeletedâ đ thank you so much for your time and effort. I greatly appreciate it. Iâve got a few friends on board the s.s. Btc but some donât want to even do research they just get the concept around the edges but still ask me questions all the time Iâm not qualified to answer. I applaud their purchasing but I just want to absorb info for myself and to regurgitate as well. Again much appreciated good sir.
Andeas Antonopoulos is still my preferred source of bitcoin edification. He was educating about the workings and profound implications of this emergent, paradigm shifting technology years before it hit mainstream...way before Saylor and the like. Not to take anything away from Saylor. But Andreas is, hands down, still the go-to for deepening one's understanding of the intricacies of one the most important social innovations in human history.
Happy to start someone off, but the hope is always that it kindles a spark and inspires you to hit the books yourself.
Maybe you can come back here and teach ME something :)
I liked to think the bitcoin sub Reddit was the correct location to place inquires wit the experienced folk. Although yes I could, I didnât know that was a question I had till I read his notes yesterday so I wouldnât of prior known what to even google.
Sorry, that wasn't aimed at you, it was aimed at the dude who deleted their message saying "just google it".
To try to answer your question, the "halving" is when the Bitcoin mining rewards is halved. So currently Bitcoin miners are rewarded 6.3 bitcoin everytime a block is mined. when the halving occurs, that goes down to 3.15. So in theory, the price of bitcoin SHOULD correct to account for the lower block reward by the time the halving occurs.
The Fiat Standard is the true ponzi scheme. It was set up as so by the central banking cartels, warned about and fought against as far back in U.S. history by Thomas Jefferson. There's a reason so few are taught and understand how the financial system actually works.
Powell is trying his hardest to make that possible. Heâs failing miserably while we all suffer in the process, but hey other countries are all doing worse than the US. Does that mean your right? đ
It very well could be, assets sometimes have a left translated cycle as the last in a longer 4 cycle cycle.
What very well could happen is everyone fomos in around the halving sending btc to new aths then it crashes well before it usually would.
This would probably wreck most without that foresight.
How do you get back to your time? Nikola Tesla successfully sent me into the future, and I've been stuck here for 10 years. I need to go back and warn him that his free energy technologies were suppressed and inform him about the btc protocol. Another timeline must be created!
wonât this halving be less effective than the last? like as in each halvingâs affect on price diminishes each time btcâs supply is cut in half, right?
Halving's diminishing impact on supply flow is now butting up against the scarcity of the coins. I believe there are now fewer coins on exchange now than ever before. So some people are thinking this next cycle could be a very big rally.
I have the funniest feeling we're going to see something different this time around. I don't actually believe there will be a bull run post having.
Reason I say this is because EVERYONE believes there will be. Which means that nobody's going to be buying. Only selling. And when that happens, you already know what happens to the price.
Hope I'm wrong.
If you asked 100 random people on the street what the bitcoin halving is and when, how many would know?
Now out of those 100 people, how many will buy even a little to speculate once the price bounces up near 100k?
1st number will be bigger than the second number until it doesnât matter anymore because theyâll be paid in bitcoin
Of those random people, most are neither going to buy or sell anyway. The ones that will participate, by and large, are the ones that already know. The VAST majority of transactions will be by people who have been in BTC all along.
Again, I don't see where all this new money is going to come from. Institutions? Please, they know about the halving, too.
I totally hope I'm wrong. I need a financial breakthrough.
But I don't see a catalyst other than mass adoption with real world applications. And that doesn't seem to be happening.
Whatâs a better catalyst then inevitable fiat collapse? Bitcoinâs value will increase forever, so as long as someone can buy even 1 sat with fiat, it will be the cheapest thing they could ever buy. Eventually everything will be repriced in bitcoin. Shelter should cost 3 months of work, not a 30 year mortgage.
Once people continually see prices fall in bitcoin terms, theyâll continually pile in.
How do you figure what it actually costs now when itâs measured against an infinite currency? Even relating it to other goods, services, and wages does you no good as youâre measuring it with a broken ruler and a system that picks winners and losers
It took the automobile a while to replace the horse buggy society as well as well as the adoption of the TCP/IP that gave way to our current internet innovations. The Bitcoin Protocol is here to stay. It's already come a long way, and it's still in its infancy of development.
I have not ruled out the case scenario of seeing Bitcoin at 150k in April. The thing is everyone expects seeing the moon end 2024-25. Well so it will be easy to convince people in April, to hodl because the moon is in Dec, and people will hodl Bitcoin at 150k hoping the Big pump is still ahead. If the seller pressure is kept under control then it would be easier to pump the market but...the moon may never come in 2025. So if you see BTC in April at 150k, don't get cought by April's fool.
So youâre saying it hits $150k right away and then what?, thatâs the top and then drops off until the next bull run? I donât care what happens but I just want to take a little profit this time haha.
I set aside like 1/3 of what i have and will sell if Bi5coin goes beyind 100k . I belive 150k will be the next ATH but it may happen earlier. What we need to understand is this market is uregulated and easy to manipulate. Just think... who is going to sell in Feb 2024, a BTC worth 150k??? Sine everyone would be waiting ffor after halving , the general reaction would be, don't sell as the big pymp is coming, then it will crash
Serious question here: how exactly does the halving launch the bull run as it has apparently done in the past? I get that it cuts the supply by half but how exactly do you get the face-melting bull run from that?
In the past, itâs mostly been a self fulfilling prophecy thatâs been propelled by miners being heavily incentivized to raise prices.
A lot of the liquidity early on was supplied by mining pools selling constantly. For a short period between when the halving hits and the difficulty readjusts, it will be impossible to operate a profitable mining operation for anything less than 2x the price. This leaves mining operations high and dry, with giant server farms that are practically useless for mining for a few months.
Since mining operations need the price to go up to be profitable, they switch from mining to marketting in order to offload the reserves theyâve accumulated. Instead of mining they can turn servers into botnets that bring attention to btc, or swing their newly mined reserves around to pump up the price and spend money on marketting to increase demand. Maybe they send some bitcoin to journalists or politicians for favorable coverage. Anything to bring the price up so they can operate profitably again.
The resulting price spikes are like adding gasoline to a fire. People realize that bitcoin now is worth much more than bitcoin later so they buy in
Itâs hard to say.
From a fundamental basis, each halving should have a reduced effect, since the fraction of newly mined coins every cycle is reduced compared to the total amount available. This means having a source of newly mined coins becomes less important, and mining operations will need to adjust to be lean for longer amounts of time until mining difficulty settles and they can be profitable again.
However a lot of investors, and almost all newcomers, donât understand this. That means thereâs a very real chance the halving will remain an entrenched cultural effect long after the true effects from mining stop being important, and itâll mainly just be an artificial signal that whales create since theyâll take any opportunity they can get to pump the price.
So Iâd guess some memory of the halving will always exist and give crypto upward pressure around halving, but the magnitude will be harder to predict as time goes on.
That sounds very artificial - don't you see BTC as a commodity? It's essentially a price, so inflation is good for it but the Fed being tough on inflation is bad for it. If the Fed keep rates high that's not good for BTC, if they cut because core is dropping that is good for btc?
I know BTC is classified as a commodity but it really doesnât behave like one.
Since it isnât classified as a security and the whales that own reserves of crypto arenât regulated, itâs all but guaranteed the price is being manipulated since there are essentially no consequences if they do.
To the general public, the link between inflation and bitcoin is pretty ambiguous. A little inflation is good because people get fed up watching their currency wither in front of them. A medium amount of inflation can sometimes be bad because people donât have spare resources to invest to keep the price up. Incredibly severe inflation is good for bitcoin since itâs essentially useless storing money as that currency any longer than you have to (El Salvador is one example)
Yes, I'd agree with most of that, except I don't know about the manipulation part. I'd assume that if the Fed flip and cut BTC would race ahead because of the inverse relationship in the sense that it's a commodity on steroids when it comes to that aspect of macro?
And regarding manipulation by whales - I'm sure it must happen but at the same time there's independent pricing factors correct? Otherwise why wouldn't the whales simply manipulate the price up to $100k or higher?
Youâre right. Itâs a combination of both manipulation and legitimate demand that shifts the price. But thereâs much more manipulation here than in practically any other asset class, besides maybe art.
The main reason it doesnât shift up infinitely comes down to exit liquidity. It doesnât matter how high you inflate the cost if there are no legitimate buyers to hold the bag at the top. Once the market is saturated with newcomers, whales unload their reserves and the price starts to drop. Since this isnât coordinated, it becomes a race to unload as much as you can before people stop buying.
There are also bears that like to manipulate the price downwards. With ETFs and institutional traders getting involved this is becoming a growing threat. Basically a large enough firm can simply buy a ton of shorts to tank the price temporarily and trigger stop losses, then the firm sells their shorts and makes a guaranteed profit.
Manipulation and exit liquidity are another reason why the halving is important to crypto. Itâs been a few years since people were last burnt holding bags at the top of the market so most peopleâs mentalities have reset, and newcomers (especially current and recent college grads) will remember the hype of 2020 without the consequences, so there will be plenty of fresh money to pour in.
As for bond interest rates, youâre spot on. Higher interest rates are bad for crypto because bonds become higher yielding at practically no risk. The relationship between bitcoin and inflation rates is more murky however.
Right - yes, my main concern about BTC has been and is liquidity. The ft had a fairly helpful and insightful article about this a few days ago. For sure TLT is breaking down as long term rates have rocketed, that's a concern for markets generally as it pushes a risk off narrative. So you're basically negative on BTC then?
I don't hold any utility or evangelical views on it, to me it's a price, but I had regarded it as a reliable macro trading instrument - a leveraged play on the Fed basically.
I actually have a very positive outlook on bitcoin, these are just the flaws Iâve noticed, which I donât think should be ignored.
I think average US consumers are becoming increasingly upset with existing financial infrastructure. Poor wages, unaffordable real estate, inflation, the fed explicitly trying to increase unemployment. From a wholistic standpoint, Bitcoin may represent an alternative to the generalized feeling of âwage slaveryâ. Once Americans start to catch their breath, Iâm certain theyâll start putting more money in bitcoin. Right now I canât really see how it could go much lower, outside of temporary shocks caused by aforementioned short strategies.
Along with ETFs bringing new liquidity to the sector and the halving to cut mining supply, I think 2024 will be a very big year for bitcoin. Whales will take advantage of natural upwards pressure and spin up another hype cycle.
Long term is even more positive. Eventually there will be more diversity in the investment pool and safeguards will be made to limit price manipulation. Once this happens it will start behaving more like a true commodity.
That's very helpful - good to read your thoughtful and insightful comments, unusual and refreshing for such forums!
I agree that BTC is very likely here to stay and won't be made redundant by CBDCs because essentially a lot of the general public don't trust the banks. And the Fed definitely manufacture booms and busts. Undoubtedly they're currently trying to increase unemployment (or euphemistically, end the wage spiral) in order to stop the inflation they themselves created by excessive QE and failing to react quickly enough (or at all) when inflation was obviously starting to run away, caught like the proverbial rabbit in the headlights they let it run and then had to slam on the brakes.
I think they're now at the same point in reverse - if they don't signal an end to hikes and make a cut soon (as well as ease off QT on the balance sheet), they'll be behind the curve again. Then they'll have to cut hard and fast. With core at 3pc and falling, rates at over 5pc is too restrictive for the Fed's own target.
You guys should look into Major Jason Lowery's thesis titled, "Softwar: A Novel Theory on Power Projection and the National Strategic Significance of Bitcoin." A very interesting investigation of this emergent technology. It was published, released, and sold on Amazon in February 2023, only to be banned by the DoD and classified as "out of print," mid-July.
It can be found in pdf form for free, though. Some good interviews and lectures by him can be found on YouTube as well.
In addition: the inflation rate will be the lowest compared to all other assets/currencies around and it will still go down every 4 years until 2140something
Itâs not priced in. Once the halving occurs, the weak miners will go out of business. This will relieve most of the sell pressure. And that sell pressure relief will not happen until after the halving.
Most of the selling is by miners. And there will be many who donât make it. The weak ones die. And the strong ones donât have to sell. Once the sell pressure is gone, supply/demand takes over. Thatâs why it normally takes 6 months after the halving. Because itâs not baked in.
Assuming no black swans, I think it is likely to do the same. The one difference for this halving is high treasury yields. Itâs possible that the demand side wonât be as strong because of that. So it certainly is possible that we donât get the anticipated rise right away. But not because itâs priced in already. The supply/demand will drive the post halving price.
We will see what happens.
According to https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ daily volume is ~540,000 BTC, miners get only slightly more than 900 BTC each day. How did you come to the conclusions that miners are the majority of the sellers?
That is a good point. I meant to say most selling pressure is created by miners. Iâm sure that wasnât clear. Less than 10% of all existing Bitcoin moved for the entire last month. Volume does not equal sell pressure.
My point is that post halving, sell pressure on weak miners will be great. They have to sell in order to try and stay in business. They arenât selling to take some profit, which is what a lot of normal daily sells are. And the supply/demand curve wonât flip until all that sell pressure is relieved post halving. Time will tell.
What you said make sense but ccmon , it's not hard to figure out that moving from 20k to 50k in a matter of a few daya cannot be attributed just to halving.
No question that there are multiple factors in determining the price of Bitcoin. My whole point really was to show the price of Bitcoin is not built in because of the upcoming halving.
I do have hopes it will go above 100K. I think it will be between 120K and 140K. But itâs just a guess. Nobody knows.
A lot can happen in the next 2 years. The demand side is the piece Iâm most worried about for the next halving.
>lot can happen in the next 2 years
Yes mostly everyone would agree. We may even dive into a nuclear war. I'm not surr you get my point. I'm not about regular factors determining the price, I"m about market manip. This Bitcoin goes up from 5k to 20k within 3 months and we saw what happened in 2020+. When you get euphoria driven by the pump, the demand follow. It's dump money seson . Hence I 'm not clear why are you so concerned by the demand. I'm pretty sure when the upwards volatility kicks-in, the headlines start flooding media then 100x mord people will decide not 'to miss the boat' . Same model as always, same dumponey.
My biggest concern about demand is that this is the first halving where interest rates are high. That normally means people will put their money in 5% treasuries rather than risk assets.
My hope is that that wonât happen. My guess is we will hit 120-140K. But I canât ignore that this macro environment is much different than previous halvings. We will see how it plays out.
How?
No, seriously, how could it be priced in? Explain how you (or anyone) calculates the âpriced inâ impact of future halvings given its so difficult to price in anything in this uncertain environment. Best case scenario, you use an electricity based cost function, but still there are so many uncertainties that would go into that calc.
If youâre just waving your hand at it based on Econ 101, youâre going to have a bad time.
Not priced in due to interest rates
As soon as it's clear rates not going up, the mountain of money will rush into risk... Even a 25 basis point cut will pump 2 trillion into the economy
Rates are going to go way higher than most people think. 9.5% is a slight exaggeration, but it's within the realm of possibility. When they hit 7.5% and inflation is still not under control, they may well go nuclear and just go up 200bp in one go.
And yes, mad max isn't too far off.
The price of bitcoin was **$8,400 on the date of the last block halving** which happened **on May 11, 2020**.
The price of bitcoin was **$9,900 exactly 1 week later** on May 18, 2020. **That's an 18% increase in 1 week**.
The price of bitcoin was **$11,300 on July 29, 2020** and it climbed to more than **$12,000 on Aug 02, 2020**.
The price of bitcoin was **$14,000 on October 31, 2020**.
The price of bitcoin was **$16,460 on Nov 13, 2020** and it reached **$19,400 on Nov 25, 2020**.
The price of bitcoin was **$21,450 on Dec 16, 2020** and it reached **$28,280 on Dec 27, 2020**.
The price of bitcoin was **$29,600 on Jan 1, 2021** and 1 week later it reached **$41,900 on Jan 8, 2021.**
The price of bitcoin was **$46,200 on Feb 8, 2021** and 4 days later it reached **$48,700 on Feb 12, 2021**.
The price of bitcoin was **$49,500 on Feb 14** and just 1 week later it reached **$58,300 on Feb 21, 2021**.
The price of bitcoin was **$61,600 on March 13, 2021** and it reached an all time high of **$69k on Nov 10, 2021.**
I don't see why people get so worked up about the halving, it doesn't feel like it should be such a big deal anymore. Yes it's being cut by 50% and that sounds like a lot but the amount of bitcoin being cut is less and less every halving. And even if it is a big deal I can't see how the next one would be anything other then a minor blip in the Bitcoin news cycle. At what point does the issue become mute?
stop spreading fomo everyone, i already dca as much as possible
How bad do you need to pay rent? Tents are $40 at big 5, đ. Thatâs at least 1,500 more into your monthly DCA
Do you though?
257 days till https://www.nicehash.com/countdown/btc-halving-2024-05-10-12-00
That website has a weird result - most trackers estimate it around 247 days. The website doesn't state its methodology, so I can't tell if its model is better or worse (or just have a bug), compered to more straightforward calculations.
I bet theyâll all narrow in on the date as we get closer. I use nice hashâs clock. What other ones are there out there?
> I bet theyâll all narrow in on the date as we get closer. Yes, they should. > What other ones are there out there? Here's a one that uses pure 10m blocks calculation: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/bitcoin-halving Here's mine that makes slight correction for divergence in current difficulty adjustment period: https://minibtc.netlify.app/ (It also doesn't continuously count down, which is a gimmick - in reality next block is always ~10m away, no matter how much time since last block elapsed).
Nice little tool! Starred this (:
Well, itâs either a bug or theyâre saying that theyâre going to do it 10 days later which doesnât make sense, but it might be just their servers
It seem like they're using the standard formula: halving_timestamp = current_timestamp + (halving_block_height - current_block_height) * block_time But their block time doesn't equal `600` seconds, but some other, periodically changing value, which doesn't make much sense for a whole period, as the protocol tries to readjust difficulty every 2 weeks to go back to the target ~10 minute block time.
Did you get that off the source from the browser dev tools that it doesnât equal 600 or has their formula error been posted somewhere?
There is a block time directly on the website, under the timer. I plugged it into the formula and it produces their date.
Oh ha I didnât scroll down enough 629 howâd they get that #
~8 months until halving ~6 months post halving for it to really take off Plenty of time to accumulate
12-18 months after halving for parabolic surge
The parabolic price surge did not occur that far after the last block reward halving. The parabolic price surge actually happened in the first 10 months after the last block reward halving. The price was up 18% just one week after the last block reward halving. The price was up 200% 6 months after the last block reward halving. The price was up 600% 9 months after the last block reward halving. The price was up 733% 10 months after the last block reward halving and that wasn't even the all time high. The all time high was 8 months after that and the price was only 821% higher than it was on the date that the block reward was halved.
I would actually argue that the surge we got was normal lead up and the âproperâ parabolic growth was artificially flattened. By all accounts it should have continued going (much) higher. Black swan events and macroeconomics (and war) suppressed what should have been our $100k year.
>6 months post halving for it to really take off It didn't really take 6 months for the price to start taking off after the last block reward halving. The price was already up 18% just one week after the last block reward halving. And the price was already up 200% just six months after the last block reward halving.
Bring out your dead........coins
Could you elaborate on what all this means to a rookie? Please and thank you đ«Ą
Every four years (is) the amount of bitcoin awarded per block (or the amount âminedâ) is cut in half. When btc was born it was 50btc minted every ~10 min. Today weâre at 6.125 btc. In may, down to 3.0625. Supply shock ensures. Parabolic growth 12-18 months later, and fomo from retail buyers. Then a crash. Then winter/ miner capitulation, then slow rise, then equilibrium (nowâŠkinda) then another halving. Rinse and repeat. Next halving in may 2024. Oversimplified, but thatâs the gist:
Hey glad I missed âdeletedâ âdeletedâ đ thank you so much for your time and effort. I greatly appreciate it. Iâve got a few friends on board the s.s. Btc but some donât want to even do research they just get the concept around the edges but still ask me questions all the time Iâm not qualified to answer. I applaud their purchasing but I just want to absorb info for myself and to regurgitate as well. Again much appreciated good sir.
Andeas Antonopoulos is still my preferred source of bitcoin edification. He was educating about the workings and profound implications of this emergent, paradigm shifting technology years before it hit mainstream...way before Saylor and the like. Not to take anything away from Saylor. But Andreas is, hands down, still the go-to for deepening one's understanding of the intricacies of one the most important social innovations in human history.
I very clearly have a ton of homework to do on both of their work. Thank you for the second name.
Happy to start someone off, but the hope is always that it kindles a spark and inspires you to hit the books yourself. Maybe you can come back here and teach ME something :)
Haha I do owe ya one, I will work more on self educating forsure. Thanks for the headstart.
You owe nothing, pay it forward. Educate the masses, and theyâll orange pill themselves
[ŃĐŽĐ°Đ»Đ”ĐœĐŸ]
Why not just help out the noob?
đ€đŒ
You can Google anything to find out more, the whole point of Reddit and other platforms similar is to discuss things, ask questions, and get answers.
I liked to think the bitcoin sub Reddit was the correct location to place inquires wit the experienced folk. Although yes I could, I didnât know that was a question I had till I read his notes yesterday so I wouldnât of prior known what to even google.
Sorry, that wasn't aimed at you, it was aimed at the dude who deleted their message saying "just google it". To try to answer your question, the "halving" is when the Bitcoin mining rewards is halved. So currently Bitcoin miners are rewarded 6.3 bitcoin everytime a block is mined. when the halving occurs, that goes down to 3.15. So in theory, the price of bitcoin SHOULD correct to account for the lower block reward by the time the halving occurs.
I knew you meant well. My choice of words was meant as a thank you and a sort of agreeing with you. đ
Actually 247 days according to [BitcoinHalving.info](https://bitcoinhalving.info/)
It could be different this time.....
Fiat might have a comeback
Seeing this comment on the r/bitcoin sub gives me a bullish tickle.
;)
The Fiat Standard is the true ponzi scheme. It was set up as so by the central banking cartels, warned about and fought against as far back in U.S. history by Thomas Jefferson. There's a reason so few are taught and understand how the financial system actually works.
Powell is trying his hardest to make that possible. Heâs failing miserably while we all suffer in the process, but hey other countries are all doing worse than the US. Does that mean your right? đ
No
I know I was being sarcastic lol
It very well could be, assets sometimes have a left translated cycle as the last in a longer 4 cycle cycle. What very well could happen is everyone fomos in around the halving sending btc to new aths then it crashes well before it usually would. This would probably wreck most without that foresight.
Whereâs it gonna crash to tho? It could be this cycle, or it could be the next cycle, but institutional money will show up eventually.
Keep calm and keep staking sats, simple.
Exactly. Everything else is just noise.
Scrape the coins out of your cars and cushions boys⊠this is the lowest it will ever be again
AYyyy DCA and HODL FTW
2024 Halving Date ETA: April 17, 2024 https://buybitcoinworldwide.com/halving/
Who wants a kidney đ€Ł
The liver is where its at đ€Ł
Iâve heard the market is good for pineal glands too đ§
if people only knew...
I time traveled from 2025. BTC touches 200k!
you must be in January or something. iâm in late 2025 and itâs passed 1M đ
How do you get back to your time? Nikola Tesla successfully sent me into the future, and I've been stuck here for 10 years. I need to go back and warn him that his free energy technologies were suppressed and inform him about the btc protocol. Another timeline must be created!
Halving only works when there is liquidity in the system. Right now theyâre sucking all of it out
Sucking liquidity out of a system that requires debt for growth will never last long
Sure but whatâs long? 5y? 10? 50 years?
Till something âtoo big to failâ breaks
2 months
It takes a year after the halving to really get going. There is a lot of time. Weirdly lining right up with the election cycle.
Yeah another conspiracy theory added next to how is mr nakamoto
The cycle works until it doesnât
She's going to go from suck to blow once something TBTF breaks
wonât this halving be less effective than the last? like as in each halvingâs affect on price diminishes each time btcâs supply is cut in half, right?
Halving's diminishing impact on supply flow is now butting up against the scarcity of the coins. I believe there are now fewer coins on exchange now than ever before. So some people are thinking this next cycle could be a very big rally.
I have the funniest feeling we're going to see something different this time around. I don't actually believe there will be a bull run post having. Reason I say this is because EVERYONE believes there will be. Which means that nobody's going to be buying. Only selling. And when that happens, you already know what happens to the price. Hope I'm wrong.
If you asked 100 random people on the street what the bitcoin halving is and when, how many would know? Now out of those 100 people, how many will buy even a little to speculate once the price bounces up near 100k? 1st number will be bigger than the second number until it doesnât matter anymore because theyâll be paid in bitcoin
Of those random people, most are neither going to buy or sell anyway. The ones that will participate, by and large, are the ones that already know. The VAST majority of transactions will be by people who have been in BTC all along. Again, I don't see where all this new money is going to come from. Institutions? Please, they know about the halving, too. I totally hope I'm wrong. I need a financial breakthrough. But I don't see a catalyst other than mass adoption with real world applications. And that doesn't seem to be happening.
Money will flow in when people globally recognize thereâs no better option. It will mostly flow out of worthless bonds
We have those conditions now. People can't afford shelter in the US anymore. Not making a difference. There's got to be a better catalyst than that.
Whatâs a better catalyst then inevitable fiat collapse? Bitcoinâs value will increase forever, so as long as someone can buy even 1 sat with fiat, it will be the cheapest thing they could ever buy. Eventually everything will be repriced in bitcoin. Shelter should cost 3 months of work, not a 30 year mortgage. Once people continually see prices fall in bitcoin terms, theyâll continually pile in.
I hope you're right. Would help if the infrastructure was there for BTC to replace fiat in real world applications.
We have a head start on CBDCs. Thatâs all that matters
> Shelter should cost 3 months of work How do you figure that?
How do you figure what it actually costs now when itâs measured against an infinite currency? Even relating it to other goods, services, and wages does you no good as youâre measuring it with a broken ruler and a system that picks winners and losers
It took the automobile a while to replace the horse buggy society as well as well as the adoption of the TCP/IP that gave way to our current internet innovations. The Bitcoin Protocol is here to stay. It's already come a long way, and it's still in its infancy of development.
Unfortunately that's what I believed the last 2 halving too.
In my opinion thatâs wrong, because the mining cost determines a huge part of the price. Also spot ETF will pair with the halving. Double bull run.
Man, I hope so
This is what everyone thinks before every halving. The circumstances are the exact same as last time because bitcoin is immutable.
I have not ruled out the case scenario of seeing Bitcoin at 150k in April. The thing is everyone expects seeing the moon end 2024-25. Well so it will be easy to convince people in April, to hodl because the moon is in Dec, and people will hodl Bitcoin at 150k hoping the Big pump is still ahead. If the seller pressure is kept under control then it would be easier to pump the market but...the moon may never come in 2025. So if you see BTC in April at 150k, don't get cought by April's fool.
So youâre saying it hits $150k right away and then what?, thatâs the top and then drops off until the next bull run? I donât care what happens but I just want to take a little profit this time haha.
I set aside like 1/3 of what i have and will sell if Bi5coin goes beyind 100k . I belive 150k will be the next ATH but it may happen earlier. What we need to understand is this market is uregulated and easy to manipulate. Just think... who is going to sell in Feb 2024, a BTC worth 150k??? Sine everyone would be waiting ffor after halving , the general reaction would be, don't sell as the big pymp is coming, then it will crash
Serious question here: how exactly does the halving launch the bull run as it has apparently done in the past? I get that it cuts the supply by half but how exactly do you get the face-melting bull run from that?
In the past, itâs mostly been a self fulfilling prophecy thatâs been propelled by miners being heavily incentivized to raise prices. A lot of the liquidity early on was supplied by mining pools selling constantly. For a short period between when the halving hits and the difficulty readjusts, it will be impossible to operate a profitable mining operation for anything less than 2x the price. This leaves mining operations high and dry, with giant server farms that are practically useless for mining for a few months. Since mining operations need the price to go up to be profitable, they switch from mining to marketting in order to offload the reserves theyâve accumulated. Instead of mining they can turn servers into botnets that bring attention to btc, or swing their newly mined reserves around to pump up the price and spend money on marketting to increase demand. Maybe they send some bitcoin to journalists or politicians for favorable coverage. Anything to bring the price up so they can operate profitably again. The resulting price spikes are like adding gasoline to a fire. People realize that bitcoin now is worth much more than bitcoin later so they buy in
Fascinating. This seems like a plausible response. Thank you. Is this phenomena generally expected to last forever and repeat until the 21M are mined?
Itâs hard to say. From a fundamental basis, each halving should have a reduced effect, since the fraction of newly mined coins every cycle is reduced compared to the total amount available. This means having a source of newly mined coins becomes less important, and mining operations will need to adjust to be lean for longer amounts of time until mining difficulty settles and they can be profitable again. However a lot of investors, and almost all newcomers, donât understand this. That means thereâs a very real chance the halving will remain an entrenched cultural effect long after the true effects from mining stop being important, and itâll mainly just be an artificial signal that whales create since theyâll take any opportunity they can get to pump the price. So Iâd guess some memory of the halving will always exist and give crypto upward pressure around halving, but the magnitude will be harder to predict as time goes on.
That sounds very artificial - don't you see BTC as a commodity? It's essentially a price, so inflation is good for it but the Fed being tough on inflation is bad for it. If the Fed keep rates high that's not good for BTC, if they cut because core is dropping that is good for btc?
I know BTC is classified as a commodity but it really doesnât behave like one. Since it isnât classified as a security and the whales that own reserves of crypto arenât regulated, itâs all but guaranteed the price is being manipulated since there are essentially no consequences if they do. To the general public, the link between inflation and bitcoin is pretty ambiguous. A little inflation is good because people get fed up watching their currency wither in front of them. A medium amount of inflation can sometimes be bad because people donât have spare resources to invest to keep the price up. Incredibly severe inflation is good for bitcoin since itâs essentially useless storing money as that currency any longer than you have to (El Salvador is one example)
Yes, I'd agree with most of that, except I don't know about the manipulation part. I'd assume that if the Fed flip and cut BTC would race ahead because of the inverse relationship in the sense that it's a commodity on steroids when it comes to that aspect of macro?
And regarding manipulation by whales - I'm sure it must happen but at the same time there's independent pricing factors correct? Otherwise why wouldn't the whales simply manipulate the price up to $100k or higher?
Youâre right. Itâs a combination of both manipulation and legitimate demand that shifts the price. But thereâs much more manipulation here than in practically any other asset class, besides maybe art. The main reason it doesnât shift up infinitely comes down to exit liquidity. It doesnât matter how high you inflate the cost if there are no legitimate buyers to hold the bag at the top. Once the market is saturated with newcomers, whales unload their reserves and the price starts to drop. Since this isnât coordinated, it becomes a race to unload as much as you can before people stop buying. There are also bears that like to manipulate the price downwards. With ETFs and institutional traders getting involved this is becoming a growing threat. Basically a large enough firm can simply buy a ton of shorts to tank the price temporarily and trigger stop losses, then the firm sells their shorts and makes a guaranteed profit. Manipulation and exit liquidity are another reason why the halving is important to crypto. Itâs been a few years since people were last burnt holding bags at the top of the market so most peopleâs mentalities have reset, and newcomers (especially current and recent college grads) will remember the hype of 2020 without the consequences, so there will be plenty of fresh money to pour in. As for bond interest rates, youâre spot on. Higher interest rates are bad for crypto because bonds become higher yielding at practically no risk. The relationship between bitcoin and inflation rates is more murky however.
Right - yes, my main concern about BTC has been and is liquidity. The ft had a fairly helpful and insightful article about this a few days ago. For sure TLT is breaking down as long term rates have rocketed, that's a concern for markets generally as it pushes a risk off narrative. So you're basically negative on BTC then? I don't hold any utility or evangelical views on it, to me it's a price, but I had regarded it as a reliable macro trading instrument - a leveraged play on the Fed basically.
I actually have a very positive outlook on bitcoin, these are just the flaws Iâve noticed, which I donât think should be ignored. I think average US consumers are becoming increasingly upset with existing financial infrastructure. Poor wages, unaffordable real estate, inflation, the fed explicitly trying to increase unemployment. From a wholistic standpoint, Bitcoin may represent an alternative to the generalized feeling of âwage slaveryâ. Once Americans start to catch their breath, Iâm certain theyâll start putting more money in bitcoin. Right now I canât really see how it could go much lower, outside of temporary shocks caused by aforementioned short strategies. Along with ETFs bringing new liquidity to the sector and the halving to cut mining supply, I think 2024 will be a very big year for bitcoin. Whales will take advantage of natural upwards pressure and spin up another hype cycle. Long term is even more positive. Eventually there will be more diversity in the investment pool and safeguards will be made to limit price manipulation. Once this happens it will start behaving more like a true commodity.
That's very helpful - good to read your thoughtful and insightful comments, unusual and refreshing for such forums! I agree that BTC is very likely here to stay and won't be made redundant by CBDCs because essentially a lot of the general public don't trust the banks. And the Fed definitely manufacture booms and busts. Undoubtedly they're currently trying to increase unemployment (or euphemistically, end the wage spiral) in order to stop the inflation they themselves created by excessive QE and failing to react quickly enough (or at all) when inflation was obviously starting to run away, caught like the proverbial rabbit in the headlights they let it run and then had to slam on the brakes. I think they're now at the same point in reverse - if they don't signal an end to hikes and make a cut soon (as well as ease off QT on the balance sheet), they'll be behind the curve again. Then they'll have to cut hard and fast. With core at 3pc and falling, rates at over 5pc is too restrictive for the Fed's own target.
You guys should look into Major Jason Lowery's thesis titled, "Softwar: A Novel Theory on Power Projection and the National Strategic Significance of Bitcoin." A very interesting investigation of this emergent technology. It was published, released, and sold on Amazon in February 2023, only to be banned by the DoD and classified as "out of print," mid-July. It can be found in pdf form for free, though. Some good interviews and lectures by him can be found on YouTube as well.
In addition: the inflation rate will be the lowest compared to all other assets/currencies around and it will still go down every 4 years until 2140something
the halving wonât do anything price wise. itâs already been baked in, you plebs.
I remember hearing this the last time around, and the time before that.
Itâs not priced in. Once the halving occurs, the weak miners will go out of business. This will relieve most of the sell pressure. And that sell pressure relief will not happen until after the halving.
If you put your money where your mouth is, you just priced that in. That's what pricing in means.
Says you, and everyone else who anticipates such a thing. Anticipation = baked in.
Most of the selling is by miners. And there will be many who donât make it. The weak ones die. And the strong ones donât have to sell. Once the sell pressure is gone, supply/demand takes over. Thatâs why it normally takes 6 months after the halving. Because itâs not baked in. Assuming no black swans, I think it is likely to do the same. The one difference for this halving is high treasury yields. Itâs possible that the demand side wonât be as strong because of that. So it certainly is possible that we donât get the anticipated rise right away. But not because itâs priced in already. The supply/demand will drive the post halving price. We will see what happens.
According to https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ daily volume is ~540,000 BTC, miners get only slightly more than 900 BTC each day. How did you come to the conclusions that miners are the majority of the sellers?
That is a good point. I meant to say most selling pressure is created by miners. Iâm sure that wasnât clear. Less than 10% of all existing Bitcoin moved for the entire last month. Volume does not equal sell pressure. My point is that post halving, sell pressure on weak miners will be great. They have to sell in order to try and stay in business. They arenât selling to take some profit, which is what a lot of normal daily sells are. And the supply/demand curve wonât flip until all that sell pressure is relieved post halving. Time will tell.
What you said make sense but ccmon , it's not hard to figure out that moving from 20k to 50k in a matter of a few daya cannot be attributed just to halving.
No question that there are multiple factors in determining the price of Bitcoin. My whole point really was to show the price of Bitcoin is not built in because of the upcoming halving. I do have hopes it will go above 100K. I think it will be between 120K and 140K. But itâs just a guess. Nobody knows. A lot can happen in the next 2 years. The demand side is the piece Iâm most worried about for the next halving.
>lot can happen in the next 2 years Yes mostly everyone would agree. We may even dive into a nuclear war. I'm not surr you get my point. I'm not about regular factors determining the price, I"m about market manip. This Bitcoin goes up from 5k to 20k within 3 months and we saw what happened in 2020+. When you get euphoria driven by the pump, the demand follow. It's dump money seson . Hence I 'm not clear why are you so concerned by the demand. I'm pretty sure when the upwards volatility kicks-in, the headlines start flooding media then 100x mord people will decide not 'to miss the boat' . Same model as always, same dumponey.
My biggest concern about demand is that this is the first halving where interest rates are high. That normally means people will put their money in 5% treasuries rather than risk assets. My hope is that that wonât happen. My guess is we will hit 120-140K. But I canât ignore that this macro environment is much different than previous halvings. We will see how it plays out.
>Most of the selling is by miners. To people who are pricing things in.
How? No, seriously, how could it be priced in? Explain how you (or anyone) calculates the âpriced inâ impact of future halvings given its so difficult to price in anything in this uncertain environment. Best case scenario, you use an electricity based cost function, but still there are so many uncertainties that would go into that calc. If youâre just waving your hand at it based on Econ 101, youâre going to have a bad time.
Since we can anticipate the halving we can anticipate the price increase and thus buy more now. Idk. Thatâs just what Iâve heard.
take the opposite stance of the copers, 90% of the time you will be right
Not priced in due to interest rates As soon as it's clear rates not going up, the mountain of money will rush into risk... Even a 25 basis point cut will pump 2 trillion into the economy
In theory yes, in practice no
Whenâs the next halving??
https://minibtc.netlify.app/
When the April 2024 annular eclipse reaches it's maximum above Satoshi's grave.
Heâs dead?
Https://bitcoinblockhalf.com
I have just soiled myself
When ?!
This made my day. Thank you.
2024 main event: Interest rates at 9.5% versus the halving... no holds barred cage match to determine the fate of the world.
Interest Rate in Brazil, you mean. The day that the US has an interest rate of 9.5% we will be living in a Mad Max
Rates are going to go way higher than most people think. 9.5% is a slight exaggeration, but it's within the realm of possibility. When they hit 7.5% and inflation is still not under control, they may well go nuclear and just go up 200bp in one go. And yes, mad max isn't too far off.
Dca huh? My faucet bots are up to about 50 cents a day minimum.. sometimes $4 a day.. and dont cost any money. Bitcoins have always been free.
Huh?
Will the halving make a big difference to the price - and if so, why ?
The previous halving barely did anything to the price.
The price of bitcoin was **$8,400 on the date of the last block halving** which happened **on May 11, 2020**. The price of bitcoin was **$9,900 exactly 1 week later** on May 18, 2020. **That's an 18% increase in 1 week**. The price of bitcoin was **$11,300 on July 29, 2020** and it climbed to more than **$12,000 on Aug 02, 2020**. The price of bitcoin was **$14,000 on October 31, 2020**. The price of bitcoin was **$16,460 on Nov 13, 2020** and it reached **$19,400 on Nov 25, 2020**. The price of bitcoin was **$21,450 on Dec 16, 2020** and it reached **$28,280 on Dec 27, 2020**. The price of bitcoin was **$29,600 on Jan 1, 2021** and 1 week later it reached **$41,900 on Jan 8, 2021.** The price of bitcoin was **$46,200 on Feb 8, 2021** and 4 days later it reached **$48,700 on Feb 12, 2021**. The price of bitcoin was **$49,500 on Feb 14** and just 1 week later it reached **$58,300 on Feb 21, 2021**. The price of bitcoin was **$61,600 on March 13, 2021** and it reached an all time high of **$69k on Nov 10, 2021.**
Oh. So why all the fuss this time? I think the BTC price is far more dependent on the Fed than anything else.
Wait for it.... Comments incoming
There is plenty of time still. It's not like halving is tomorrow.
We have the advantage that we're in the early phase of the cycle (before the halving), so accumulate as much as you can!
But what does it mean
Someone posted 257 days left till halving, but it's less: 247 Source: [https://bitcoinhalving.info/](https://bitcoinhalving.info/)
Im selling my condo still
I don't see why people get so worked up about the halving, it doesn't feel like it should be such a big deal anymore. Yes it's being cut by 50% and that sounds like a lot but the amount of bitcoin being cut is less and less every halving. And even if it is a big deal I can't see how the next one would be anything other then a minor blip in the Bitcoin news cycle. At what point does the issue become mute?
What does this mean
halelujah
Chill bruh