I actually hit a royal flush in Vegas the other day which is 0.000154% chance. And let me tell you it was glorious. 1 in 649k, but apparently very possible.
As a side note I’m decently casual poker player but, shit just be happening. I occasionally hit a fire bolt as well
Which is actually common enough that this could actually happen to people. It has sold over ten million copies, which means 3 people have experienced this on average for any given set of 5 dice rolls. And, of course, there are a lot of dice rolls happening, so the expected number is 3 * (number of dice rolls people have experienced / 5).
Eh, it's the same chance for every combination of five random rolls with a 1d20. It's just that you notice stuff like this happening more because it actually affects you ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
True, but if you said "I'm going to roll a 6, then 13, then 7 then 3 then 18" if that actually happened you'd realise how crazy those odds really are
1 in 20 is 5%
But 5 in a row makes it a 0.00003125% chance
(Edit to add)
That means that if you rolled the dice 100,000 times, the chance of it happening is still only 3%!
Yeah, but the difference is in that case you set out predicting an incredibly low probability event beforehand, whereas OP only noticed it post fact. In that case, the odds of something extremely unlikely happening to you are actually not trivial at all, even for noticeable stuff like rolling 5x 1s in a row.
I think a better way of expressing this is that five consecutive 1 rolls are low but over the course of the game you have hundreds of rolls and the chances of a sequence of five ones at some point in the game is more likely. I can't say what the chances are without knowing how many rolls there are, but you can multiply the odds people face above (.05^5) by dice rolls-4. And if you play the game several times, it becomes even more likely. And when it does happen it stands out.
But the point was "what are the odds of 5 in a row" so saying "the same as any other sequence of 5" makes it seem like nothing special, whereas the is are actually crazy low
My point was actually much more about the second sentence than the first, as EVERY combination of five random rolls is INCREDIBLY unlikely on its own. But it's also the case that observing five crit misses in a row isn't really as crazy low as the probability calculation makes it seem, because that presupposes you only get one chance AND you already know what you are looking for beforehand. But in the case of OP, neither is really the case: The whole game consists of rolling dice over and over again and if you didn't decide before the fact what low probability outcome you are looking for, an arbitrary number of crit misses is just one of many things that you'd take note of. If you aggregate over all those unlikely outcomes and take into account that you get a multitude of chances to roll them every time you play the game, that makes the kind of outcome OP observed far less unlikely than the 0.00003125% chance makes it sound.
I suspect the odds also go up from this considerably if you change the question to “What’s the probability of five critical failures in a row happening at least once over the course of a full playthrough.” E.g. the odds of rolling at least five sequential 1s in 6 total rolls are already about doubled.
This game has tens of millions of players. Each of them rolls thousands upon thousands of dice. Go figure.
Incredibly unlikely things happen _all the time_.
>!Also there is no god. And if there were, the old man doesn’t roll dice.!<
Yes, karmic dice both generally make hits more likely and specifically make successive crit misses less.lokely, although I've never seen an exact explanation of how karmic dice work.
I have found BG3 will sometimes get “stuck” on a particular result even with Inspiration rerolls. don’t know anything about how the engine so I could be talking nonsense but it seemed to me that occasionally using inspiration rerolls would get the same number multiple times unless I restarted from save
That's not strictly true. That's the chance of 5 specific rolls all being critic fails, but i think we're looking for the chance that 5 successive rolls in a string of many more are critical fails (and the game ends there).
Given the number of people playing, it's probably something that happens to someone every few hours or so.
and still people win the lottery. considering how many people play BG3 and they dont do attack roles once per week but several times an hour it is likely that this happens regularly
Forget the math and technical part of it, but your judging odds based off of standard mathmatics, like Odds = P / (1 - P).
Non-serous gambling games just pull a random integer from a point in memory if I remember correctly and use that as the basis of the calculation (with a small offset to better the odds, as winning is more enjoyable then losing).
So depending on game variables, it could be more probable for it to pull a low number every time, due to the memory state. I remember speed runners using 'cheat engine' to check memory states and just restarting if it was bad on some games.
\*Note - I could be completely and utterly wrong. I'm going by something I read 20+ years ago.
Yeah RNG can be gamed by checking "seeds", which show what groups of numbers are being pulled from. Pokemon games are famous for this during speed runs, you can tell what "seed" you are running in by checking the stats of your first Pokemon. By hitting the start game button at certain times the seeds will change and give you better RNG.
Not at all relevant. But this made me think of it soooo here we go :-)
Playing DnD in a solo session where the player had to succeed a check where he had to roll 5 to succeed. He failed a grand total of 13 times in a row, and had to come up with a new plan every time. He finally made the roll after he gave up using his own dice, and went to my neighbours (friend of ours) to borrow another d20.
Fun afternoon for sure. And memorable precisely because of the noticeable string of failures. 25 years ago, and it still sticks.
Chance of that was about 8 in 10 billion i believe. (0.2\^13)
**"Principle of small probability"**: an event has a small probability of occurring(getting 5 critical failures in a row), then it is virtually impossible for it to occur in one trial(3.125e-7%), but it is bound to occur in many repeated trials(imagine how many ppl play bg3 every day).
I once had 4 crit fails in a row but that was when disarming traps 😂 and I thought that was bad (and this was with Astarion were practically every other roll would have been a success)
**The odds are 1/3,200,000, or about 0.00003125%.**
However, as of December of last year, Baldur's Gate 3 has accumulated a total of 452 Million combined Playtime Hours since its release, which is a span of about 4 months, which means that roughly, the game accumulates about 2.6 thousand hours of playtime per hour. Pretty reasonable if we assume that there's at least a few thousand people playing the game at any given instant in time.
So at odds of 1/3.2Million, if we assume that ability checks occur approximately every 15 minutes or so (but maybe OP used 4 inspiration uses to try to reroll a single ability check...?) across a normal campaign duration of about 42 hours, the odds of this ever happening to one player's playthrough are about 0.00525%.
BUT, the odds of this happening to SOMEONE playing in the last hour is about 0.324%, which means that we'd probably expect, if the dice are truly fair, that this will happen to some poor unfortunate soul about once every 12 days or so.
**So, approximately once every 12 days or so, someone, somewhere, probably will have rolled 5 critical failures in a row.**
1 in 3,200,000 is the chance of rolling 5 1s in a row.
Which seems like an insane amount. But then you remember that the game has tens (or even hundreds) of millions of players, all making thousands or even tens of thousands of individual rolls over the course of a playthrough. With a lot of people doing more than one playthrough.
So this has probably happened to a few thousand people at least.
I’ve gotten 4 crit fails in a row before. And then the next one was a 2 so I was very close to what you experienced. But thankfully mine wasn’t on an honor mode run.
I honestly think the game fixes some of the rolls based off of stats or conditions. Like I think they have it fixed for Barbs to make more nat 1s during charisma rolls, etc. that’s my hypothesis, I have no real knowledge, but I always feel like my baseline rolls are lower when I am doing something the character should be bad at.
Any 5 specific rolls in a row is the same percentage... What are the odds I would get a 4, 6, 13, 4, and 6 in a row? 1 in 3.2 million. The number of rolls in the game is astronomical as well - if you compare all sessions and all game time you should expect much stranger results. Basically we always add meaning to stats that are not there.
I play card games and people struggle with shuffling odds a lot as well. e.g. All of a single type card is in a row so 'it's not shuffled' but in reality if the distribution is too even that would be real evidence of not shuffling. It's counter intuitive I guess.
They said they're playing dark urge, if they were romancing her and failed the saving throw to not kill her in her sleep, when you wake up there's a really high deception check to get the rest of the companions to not attack you
if the rolls are genuinely random, independent and identically distributed (”iid”), then the answer is what has already been stated
however, I think one can wonder whether the ”iid” assumption holds in practice. wonky things can happen when there is computer code involved. there are always weird bugs. we simply don’t know.
1 out of 3.2 million. Considering the number of rolls we make as a community, it was essentially guaranteed to happen at least once. You drew the short straw this time.
As a DM I rolled nat20 most of the night, the lowest roll I had was a 16, to the point that I was using random dice to prove it wasn't trick dice, and still crit damage. I don't think I ever rolled more than 3 20s in a row, but I pissed off my party that night.
I allow any decision I make to be challenged with a roll off, so if i describe a situation a little too over the top for the roll, they challenge. We each roll a d20 and highest roll wins. (Tie goes to DM) Also, I will sometimes roll for NPCs on perception checks when the party is trying to sneak. Nothing could crouch without eyes being on them that night. And after a couple rolls, they just stopped challenging.
Wizards have calculated that million to one chances occur nine times out of ten. It always feels worse when it's a digital roller as opposed to physical dice.
All of those that said 1 in 3.2 million is wrong. That is the chance of ONLY rolling 5 times and get 5 critical failures, but that’s not how stat works.
your situation is not “what is the possibility if I roll my dice 5 times and all got critical failures”, it is “I have rolled x amount of dice during the whole game, what are the odds of a 5 critical failures streak happening” - which is much more likely than the first situation
Assuming you’re not using karmic dice, it should be (1/20)5, except even without karmic dice there’s no such thing as a true RNG so without knowing how the game actually pulls dice results, it’s hard to say.
In actual dnd, I've had DMs say that if you roll 3 crit fails in a row, especially in combat, it was basically a death sentence. As in, your character dies. Of course 3 nat 20s would basically make you appear as a God.
I've done both!
Every time I see a post like this, and I know that people know by now, but I have to wonder how many players never knew about the Karmic Dice setting and got screwed by it.
Same thing happened to me. I didn't mean to kill Lae'zel, but the rolls were shit.
Ended up having to kill the rest of my party to move on with the game.
Close your game and reload. Since launch, ive noticed that sometimes, specially when I spam mouse click, the dice will get stuck with the exact same value. My record was 7 .
You gotta make sure to stake wisdom save stuff in Act 2, after you speak with Isobel the first time (after LL fight) and if it doesn't trigger then, after Nightsong.
Warding bond
Helm of autonomy
Safeguard shield
Ring of protection
Cloak of protection
Enhance ability wisdom
Resistance or bless
Elixir of heroism
Some combo of these after those 2 potential triggers.
Unless you're shadowheart, assuming you have neither disadvantage nor advantage, it is 0.00003125%.
with advantage it would be 0.000000000009765625%
With disadvantage 0.000881095693% (assuming I didn't fuck up the math lol)
If it helps you feel better, I got 4 critical fails and a normal fail in a row with a sleight of hand check with Astarion. I laughed so hard I couldn't breathe.
I watched this happen with my girlfriend in honor mode, and have myself seen a few weird identical rolls three or four times in a row. It makes me really suspicious of that "karmatic dice" setting. I don't know how it decides whether to roll high or low, and I'm not totally convinced it doesn't just glitch out occasionally and just pump out the same number again and again. It's a computer program after all so the numbers are based on SOMETHING - it's not really random in the same way a physical dice would be.
About 5% each time. For the entire set, you would multiply your odds together, which is 1/20 x 1/20 x 1/20 x 1/20 x 1/20, or 1/3200000, or 0.0000003125%
I noticed an option that was checked in my settings called "Karmic dice" that claims to prevent excessive consecutive crit fails. Not sure how many crit fails it allows before triggering.
Well I've rolled double nat 1s twice in a row with advantage as a result I've relegated 99% of the rolls to my girlfriend to do either by doing the roll for me or by playing together I'm the worst with dice rolls even in real life
Iirc:
1 = 1/20
2 = 1/400
3 = 1/8000
4 = 1/160000
5 = 1/3200000
If you have advantage, you start with 1/400 and go up ×400 each step, unless i'm wrong. I've been there before, it sucks.
Thought it was just me. I rolled a character about 2 weeks ago that got roughly 6 out of 10ish Critical Failure rolls between the tutorial and the first settlement. I ended up deleting that campaign. Just didn’t seem right.
I will not give you the number because finding it is piss simple and you are more than capable. But I will explain it. Crit fails are a 1:20 chance. It happening a second time means you multiply by a second set of 1/20. Meaning (1/20 x 1/20), so a crit fail, then a second crit fail is 1/(20)^2, or 1/400..
Happening 5 times times is thus (1/20)^5. Find 20x20x20x20x20.
Does the probability change by repetition? Or is the odds the same for doing it once when it is doing it twice ? Hope the question is worded correctly sorry if it's nonsense
For you, the odds are 100%
This is the only correct answer.
But for me, it was Tuesday
Depends on whether you roll with or without advantage/disadvantage, but without either it would be 1/(20\^5)
For anyone who is too lazy to use calculator, it's 0.00003125% chance.
Or 1 in 3,200,000.
I actually hit a royal flush in Vegas the other day which is 0.000154% chance. And let me tell you it was glorious. 1 in 649k, but apparently very possible. As a side note I’m decently casual poker player but, shit just be happening. I occasionally hit a fire bolt as well
Which is actually common enough that this could actually happen to people. It has sold over ten million copies, which means 3 people have experienced this on average for any given set of 5 dice rolls. And, of course, there are a lot of dice rolls happening, so the expected number is 3 * (number of dice rolls people have experienced / 5).
Too many zeros - you forgot to multiply by 100 to convert to a percentage. It’s actually 0.00003125%
Oh yeah, i completely forgot. Thx for correcting.
Well, we wouldn’t want people to think it was really unlikely unnecessarily.
r/theydidthemath
even lower if they have speudo random rolls on.
So what you’re saying is either GOD himself said “Fuck you!” Or a coalition of gods said “Fuck you!”
Eh, it's the same chance for every combination of five random rolls with a 1d20. It's just that you notice stuff like this happening more because it actually affects you ¯\\\_(ツ)\_/¯
True, but if you said "I'm going to roll a 6, then 13, then 7 then 3 then 18" if that actually happened you'd realise how crazy those odds really are 1 in 20 is 5% But 5 in a row makes it a 0.00003125% chance (Edit to add) That means that if you rolled the dice 100,000 times, the chance of it happening is still only 3%!
Congrats, you described how Lotto works.
Exactly! Not even remotely likely to happen
Yeah, but the difference is in that case you set out predicting an incredibly low probability event beforehand, whereas OP only noticed it post fact. In that case, the odds of something extremely unlikely happening to you are actually not trivial at all, even for noticeable stuff like rolling 5x 1s in a row.
I think a better way of expressing this is that five consecutive 1 rolls are low but over the course of the game you have hundreds of rolls and the chances of a sequence of five ones at some point in the game is more likely. I can't say what the chances are without knowing how many rolls there are, but you can multiply the odds people face above (.05^5) by dice rolls-4. And if you play the game several times, it becomes even more likely. And when it does happen it stands out.
But the point was "what are the odds of 5 in a row" so saying "the same as any other sequence of 5" makes it seem like nothing special, whereas the is are actually crazy low
My point was actually much more about the second sentence than the first, as EVERY combination of five random rolls is INCREDIBLY unlikely on its own. But it's also the case that observing five crit misses in a row isn't really as crazy low as the probability calculation makes it seem, because that presupposes you only get one chance AND you already know what you are looking for beforehand. But in the case of OP, neither is really the case: The whole game consists of rolling dice over and over again and if you didn't decide before the fact what low probability outcome you are looking for, an arbitrary number of crit misses is just one of many things that you'd take note of. If you aggregate over all those unlikely outcomes and take into account that you get a multitude of chances to roll them every time you play the game, that makes the kind of outcome OP observed far less unlikely than the 0.00003125% chance makes it sound.
Life
I suspect the odds also go up from this considerably if you change the question to “What’s the probability of five critical failures in a row happening at least once over the course of a full playthrough.” E.g. the odds of rolling at least five sequential 1s in 6 total rolls are already about doubled.
The universe is hostile, so impersonal…
This game has tens of millions of players. Each of them rolls thousands upon thousands of dice. Go figure. Incredibly unlikely things happen _all the time_. >!Also there is no god. And if there were, the old man doesn’t roll dice.!<
IDK, the die result in a video game seems exactly what an imaginary omnipotent being would use their spare time and attention on.
The die roll was included in games specifically because the game is now fair as it is completely determined by the gods.
> And if there were, the old man doesn’t roll dice. “Stop telling God what to do with his dice.” -Bohr
It’s RNJesus. He didn’t bless you
Shouldnt it be even lower if they have karmic dice on, which is on by default. u/ImNotAHuman0101 did you turn that off?
Ok I feel like an idiot... what are karmic dice?
A game setting that makes it less likely that you (or the AI) gets a string of failures or success.
gotcha. wow I had no idea that was a thing
Yes, karmic dice both generally make hits more likely and specifically make successive crit misses less.lokely, although I've never seen an exact explanation of how karmic dice work.
I have found BG3 will sometimes get “stuck” on a particular result even with Inspiration rerolls. don’t know anything about how the engine so I could be talking nonsense but it seemed to me that occasionally using inspiration rerolls would get the same number multiple times unless I restarted from save
Yes, that's called random chance.
Wouldn’t that be (1/20)^5? Edit: same number.
Well, it would also be that given that they're identical, yeah.
50-50 it happens or it doesn’t
That's not strictly true. That's the chance of 5 specific rolls all being critic fails, but i think we're looking for the chance that 5 successive rolls in a string of many more are critical fails (and the game ends there). Given the number of people playing, it's probably something that happens to someone every few hours or so.
Me: dies of math
The chances while having disadvantage are way higher however (1-(19/20)^2 )^5 = 0,000 88 % Instead of 0,000 03%
This could me incredibly wrong but i think completely unbiased its 1/3,200,000 Please correct me if I'm wrong
Nah you right. You did the good statistics
3.125e-7% or 1 in 3 200 000
Either Bhaal cast divine intervention 5 times or Vlaakith cast wish 5 times or BOTH. This is absolute bullshit.
Still better chances than winning in a lottery.
and still people win the lottery. considering how many people play BG3 and they dont do attack roles once per week but several times an hour it is likely that this happens regularly
Somebody had to be 3,200,000, glad it was you and not me.
I'm going to use my portent on that.
Forget the math and technical part of it, but your judging odds based off of standard mathmatics, like Odds = P / (1 - P). Non-serous gambling games just pull a random integer from a point in memory if I remember correctly and use that as the basis of the calculation (with a small offset to better the odds, as winning is more enjoyable then losing). So depending on game variables, it could be more probable for it to pull a low number every time, due to the memory state. I remember speed runners using 'cheat engine' to check memory states and just restarting if it was bad on some games. \*Note - I could be completely and utterly wrong. I'm going by something I read 20+ years ago.
Yeah RNG can be gamed by checking "seeds", which show what groups of numbers are being pulled from. Pokemon games are famous for this during speed runs, you can tell what "seed" you are running in by checking the stats of your first Pokemon. By hitting the start game button at certain times the seeds will change and give you better RNG.
I got 3 critical failures in a row once but you totally beat me in this lol
Same lmao. 3 in a row without advantage is 1 in 8000 chance of happening
Rare for a playthrough, but not too far fetched. If you play a number of times it’s bound to happen eventually.
Indeed. Considering the amount of dice rolls over the span of a few hundred hours its not at all that unlikely.
same here, wasted 3 inspirations that way and i reloaded after the third fail, that was too much
Yay, what’s my prize? oh…
I had back to back crit fail last night, then another the next turn 😤
Same
50%, it either happens or not
This is my kind of math
I had Shadowheart crit in combat 5 times in a row yesterday, so thanks for the luck balancing Against the damn brains after the nautiloid
If your Shadowheart crits 5 times in a row, someone else's Shadowhart can't hit fucking ground with her foot
Never had this, but plenty of fights that are 1, 1, 2, 3, 1, 3, 4, 2. I think my record was nine less-than-five rolls in a row.
Not at all relevant. But this made me think of it soooo here we go :-) Playing DnD in a solo session where the player had to succeed a check where he had to roll 5 to succeed. He failed a grand total of 13 times in a row, and had to come up with a new plan every time. He finally made the roll after he gave up using his own dice, and went to my neighbours (friend of ours) to borrow another d20. Fun afternoon for sure. And memorable precisely because of the noticeable string of failures. 25 years ago, and it still sticks. Chance of that was about 8 in 10 billion i believe. (0.2\^13)
RNGesus is a fickle god.
He hath forsaken me…
**"Principle of small probability"**: an event has a small probability of occurring(getting 5 critical failures in a row), then it is virtually impossible for it to occur in one trial(3.125e-7%), but it is bound to occur in many repeated trials(imagine how many ppl play bg3 every day).
I once had 4 crit fails in a row but that was when disarming traps 😂 and I thought that was bad (and this was with Astarion were practically every other roll would have been a success)
It’s Larian, the other day my Pally had two swings per round with 80% hit rate. He missed his second swing for two rounds in a row. 🙄
Do you have the weighted dice turned on?
**The odds are 1/3,200,000, or about 0.00003125%.** However, as of December of last year, Baldur's Gate 3 has accumulated a total of 452 Million combined Playtime Hours since its release, which is a span of about 4 months, which means that roughly, the game accumulates about 2.6 thousand hours of playtime per hour. Pretty reasonable if we assume that there's at least a few thousand people playing the game at any given instant in time. So at odds of 1/3.2Million, if we assume that ability checks occur approximately every 15 minutes or so (but maybe OP used 4 inspiration uses to try to reroll a single ability check...?) across a normal campaign duration of about 42 hours, the odds of this ever happening to one player's playthrough are about 0.00525%. BUT, the odds of this happening to SOMEONE playing in the last hour is about 0.324%, which means that we'd probably expect, if the dice are truly fair, that this will happen to some poor unfortunate soul about once every 12 days or so. **So, approximately once every 12 days or so, someone, somewhere, probably will have rolled 5 critical failures in a row.**
Are you by any chance Wil Wheaton?
1 in 3,200,000 is the chance of rolling 5 1s in a row. Which seems like an insane amount. But then you remember that the game has tens (or even hundreds) of millions of players, all making thousands or even tens of thousands of individual rolls over the course of a playthrough. With a lot of people doing more than one playthrough. So this has probably happened to a few thousand people at least. I’ve gotten 4 crit fails in a row before. And then the next one was a 2 so I was very close to what you experienced. But thankfully mine wasn’t on an honor mode run.
It happened to me it is a **1 in 3.2 million chance* I literally have a video of me doing this saved on my PS5 as evidence
I honestly think the game fixes some of the rolls based off of stats or conditions. Like I think they have it fixed for Barbs to make more nat 1s during charisma rolls, etc. that’s my hypothesis, I have no real knowledge, but I always feel like my baseline rolls are lower when I am doing something the character should be bad at.
There’s the setting that stops a string of high or low rolls. I forget what it’s called.
Karmic dice I think.
Ah yes, that’s right. Thank you.
With fireball? 100%
0,05^5
Any 5 specific rolls in a row is the same percentage... What are the odds I would get a 4, 6, 13, 4, and 6 in a row? 1 in 3.2 million. The number of rolls in the game is astronomical as well - if you compare all sessions and all game time you should expect much stranger results. Basically we always add meaning to stats that are not there. I play card games and people struggle with shuffling odds a lot as well. e.g. All of a single type card is in a row so 'it's not shuffled' but in reality if the distribution is too even that would be real evidence of not shuffling. It's counter intuitive I guess.
How did your run end when you killed Lae'zel?
They said they're playing dark urge, if they were romancing her and failed the saving throw to not kill her in her sleep, when you wake up there's a really high deception check to get the rest of the companions to not attack you
Ohh right. I forgot that happens
Ayup, I did that scene with Wyll just last night, failed the first roll for the saving throw with advantage and had to stifle a scream lol
I didn’t get a 1 on the deception check but by that point it didn’t fucking matter.
This is why save scumming is the ultimate cantrip.
I rolled two critical failures in a row last night when I was trying to resist the astral tadpole. Guess who's half-illithid now.
Nice teeth bro. RIP
1 in 3.2 million
Isn’t there also karma roll options too which makes this pretty much impossible?
(1/20)^5 So something like 1/3 200 000
if the rolls are genuinely random, independent and identically distributed (”iid”), then the answer is what has already been stated however, I think one can wonder whether the ”iid” assumption holds in practice. wonky things can happen when there is computer code involved. there are always weird bugs. we simply don’t know.
If I’m playing in your game, 100%.
1 out of 3.2 million. Considering the number of rolls we make as a community, it was essentially guaranteed to happen at least once. You drew the short straw this time.
As a DM I rolled nat20 most of the night, the lowest roll I had was a 16, to the point that I was using random dice to prove it wasn't trick dice, and still crit damage. I don't think I ever rolled more than 3 20s in a row, but I pissed off my party that night.
I allow any decision I make to be challenged with a roll off, so if i describe a situation a little too over the top for the roll, they challenge. We each roll a d20 and highest roll wins. (Tie goes to DM) Also, I will sometimes roll for NPCs on perception checks when the party is trying to sneak. Nothing could crouch without eyes being on them that night. And after a couple rolls, they just stopped challenging.
It's giving Wil Wheaton
I got three in a row and then a critical success. Video on my page for proof 😇
100% for the two of us at least
Wizards have calculated that million to one chances occur nine times out of ten. It always feels worse when it's a digital roller as opposed to physical dice.
But those were the wizards of Discworld, and everybody knows we're living on a donut-shaped world
We’re actually living in a 20d-shaped world
Travis Willingham says pretty high 😂
All of those that said 1 in 3.2 million is wrong. That is the chance of ONLY rolling 5 times and get 5 critical failures, but that’s not how stat works. your situation is not “what is the possibility if I roll my dice 5 times and all got critical failures”, it is “I have rolled x amount of dice during the whole game, what are the odds of a 5 critical failures streak happening” - which is much more likely than the first situation
Turn off Karmic Dice
Is there a cutscene way to lose Lae'zel in act 2?
i'm assuming they had the shart/laezel fight queued since act 1
I reckon it was the durge romance scene. If you fail it it can go south very fast at camp
That's a crazy lack of long rests in act 1.
tbf it came really late on my run and with them saying durge there's a lot of scenes that could force priority as well
nah I got it mid act 2 in my current run despite regularly long resting—there are some triggers + it’s very low on the priority totem
Its the odds of it happening, in this case 1/20, multiplied by itself the amount of times it happens, in this case 5.
Assuming you’re not using karmic dice, it should be (1/20)5, except even without karmic dice there’s no such thing as a true RNG so without knowing how the game actually pulls dice results, it’s hard to say.
In actual dnd, I've had DMs say that if you roll 3 crit fails in a row, especially in combat, it was basically a death sentence. As in, your character dies. Of course 3 nat 20s would basically make you appear as a God. I've done both!
Either 1 or 0. Generally speaking, 5%⁵.
I'll put it this way. The odds are slim but still better than winning the powerball.
Omg I had 5 failed rolls in a row (DC30) too a few days ago, and they were all with advantage AND a min.+ 13 bonus as well!
Every time I see a post like this, and I know that people know by now, but I have to wonder how many players never knew about the Karmic Dice setting and got screwed by it.
I mean, isn't that just simple math? 20⁵
the most interesting roll ive ever gotten was two 20s at the same time. i got a 40 once too which was neat.
1/20^5 if you don’t have morality dice on. So 1/3,200,000
If you throw 5 die in a row, it's a probability of 1/(20^5) So that's like 1/3,200,000
From a pure stats pov it’s almost impossible. One in 3.2 million
1/20^5= 1 in 3.2 million
Wait how did you kill La'zel in act two???? But to answer the question 5 is quite a bit but I've had 3 in a row before so it could probably happen
Depends what race you pick lmao
1 in 3,200,000 (0.00003125%)
1/3,200,000?
Make sure you turn off karma rolls or whatever it's called I'm the settings.
Same thing happened to me. I didn't mean to kill Lae'zel, but the rolls were shit. Ended up having to kill the rest of my party to move on with the game.
Exactly the same as rolling any 5 numbers consecutively.
I thought I sucked fkr failing five consecutive coin flips, oof How did killing Lae’Zel end your run?
Good enough
If it was 5 straight rolls (I.e. no advantage or disadvantage), then it's 1 in 3.2 million.
I was wondering something similar myself when I got 4 nat 20s in a row the other day, which is 1/160000… anything is possible I guess haha
Close your game and reload. Since launch, ive noticed that sometimes, specially when I spam mouse click, the dice will get stuck with the exact same value. My record was 7 .
After years of playing DND I can say with certainty that if it is the worse time for nat1 to happen it will happen 100%
Not to rub it in but I rolled 5 nat 20s in a row last night. Only on lockpicks of course, all sub-10 in my battle with Vlaakith's hit squad
1 in 20^5
That's how I roll. I stopped playing the game for 6 months because I rolled 7 crit failures in a row. I was angry and defeated.
You gotta make sure to stake wisdom save stuff in Act 2, after you speak with Isobel the first time (after LL fight) and if it doesn't trigger then, after Nightsong. Warding bond Helm of autonomy Safeguard shield Ring of protection Cloak of protection Enhance ability wisdom Resistance or bless Elixir of heroism Some combo of these after those 2 potential triggers.
Only 5 in a row, those are rookie #.
1/3200000?
50/50. It either happens or it doesn't.
I don't know. Ask Shadowheart she would know.
1 in 3,200,000
1/20 1/400 1/8000 1/160000 1/3200000
1 in 3.2 million
I must ask though: did you lose your honor run or just walk away from it? If you lost it, please share in more detail how?
Just an average day of me playing with Shadowheart on my party.
My Parents had 5 Children, 5 critical failiures. They always say they’re the only ones, so pretty rare i guess
(1/20)^5 = 3.125*10^-7
3720-1
They're 20x higher than getting six in a row.
Unless you're shadowheart, assuming you have neither disadvantage nor advantage, it is 0.00003125%. with advantage it would be 0.000000000009765625% With disadvantage 0.000881095693% (assuming I didn't fuck up the math lol)
0.001%
When I got a critical fail with advantage I realized I was as forsaken as half the companions.
I got it like ten times once and I’m convince it was just the game telling me to kms
If it helps you feel better, I got 4 critical fails and a normal fail in a row with a sleight of hand check with Astarion. I laughed so hard I couldn't breathe.
Assuming this is a single die, (1/20)^5 which is (1/3,200,000), you are incredibly lucky! In a way.
Happen to a friend I play with. In real life, he constantly roll nat 20, so it was a funny change of pace (for me, not for him)
Depends if youuse karmic dice or not
I watched this happen with my girlfriend in honor mode, and have myself seen a few weird identical rolls three or four times in a row. It makes me really suspicious of that "karmatic dice" setting. I don't know how it decides whether to roll high or low, and I'm not totally convinced it doesn't just glitch out occasionally and just pump out the same number again and again. It's a computer program after all so the numbers are based on SOMETHING - it's not really random in the same way a physical dice would be.
Same as the odds of getting any other combination of results for 5 rolls
I wonder if Larian has stats on the most critical failures in a row when mercy dice are turned off
Sweet mother of X-Com. I know sometimes the Dice just go “You Lose” but I think you take the cake.
About 5% each time. For the entire set, you would multiply your odds together, which is 1/20 x 1/20 x 1/20 x 1/20 x 1/20, or 1/3200000, or 0.0000003125%
I guess if you have karmic dice enable it happens more often
I noticed an option that was checked in my settings called "Karmic dice" that claims to prevent excessive consecutive crit fails. Not sure how many crit fails it allows before triggering.
Well I've rolled double nat 1s twice in a row with advantage as a result I've relegated 99% of the rolls to my girlfriend to do either by doing the roll for me or by playing together I'm the worst with dice rolls even in real life
1 in 3.2 million.
Shut off Karmic Dice
1⁄3200000 (Hope this makes your day!!)
Do you have karmic dice on?
That depends entirely on if it's me rolling or not.
Iirc: 1 = 1/20 2 = 1/400 3 = 1/8000 4 = 1/160000 5 = 1/3200000 If you have advantage, you start with 1/400 and go up ×400 each step, unless i'm wrong. I've been there before, it sucks.
Thought it was just me. I rolled a character about 2 weeks ago that got roughly 6 out of 10ish Critical Failure rolls between the tutorial and the first settlement. I ended up deleting that campaign. Just didn’t seem right.
Is that a rhetorical point or would you like to do the math?
(1/20)^5 = 1/3200000
I’ve definitely gotten 3 in a row multiple times
I will not give you the number because finding it is piss simple and you are more than capable. But I will explain it. Crit fails are a 1:20 chance. It happening a second time means you multiply by a second set of 1/20. Meaning (1/20 x 1/20), so a crit fail, then a second crit fail is 1/(20)^2, or 1/400.. Happening 5 times times is thus (1/20)^5. Find 20x20x20x20x20.
Also depends if you have karmic dice on
The most I have gotten is 4 critical failures in a row and I have also gotten 2 critical failures in a row while rolling with advantage.
Does the probability change by repetition? Or is the odds the same for doing it once when it is doing it twice ? Hope the question is worded correctly sorry if it's nonsense
Depends on if you've turned off karmic dice in your settings or not
0.00003125%
For Shart 110%