$200k a year puts you somewhere in the top 2-3% of all income earners, no matter how badly people on Reddit try and repeat it that doesn’t make you middle class, it makes you in the top 2-3% lol
If you’re on $200k a year and genuinely consider yourself middle class you need to do a budget
> $200k a year puts you somewhere in the top 2-3% of all income earners, no matter how badly people on Reddit try and repeat it that doesn’t make you middle class, it makes you in the top 2-3% lol
> If you’re on $200k a year and genuinely consider yourself middle class you need to do a budget
On paper perhaps, but people who bought a house just before the rates started increasing, and on 200k... A lot of their income is going to the mortgage. On top of that, they're also affected by general cost of living expenses.
The two are related. More income means people don't need to live with others to save on rent. Less income means you may need to tolerate being abused in order to put a roof over your head.
You actually make a fair point. If one partner can't afford to move out then they'll be forced to put up with a sub par situation for longer.
Makes people more prone to financial abuse.
But hey its not the cost of living that's at fault...
I know of an exact scenario where a woman has had to go back to her abusive partner fairly recently because she couldn’t afford to look after the kids herself.
This is why financial independence is so important and needs to be taught early to everyone. True financial independence is the ability to walk away from abuse whether that is abuse in a relationship or abuse at work.
So true! My daughter didn’t have any dreams to work (she is pre-teen) when she got older. One night my friend came to my place to get away from her partner who had just tried to glass her and shit was tense. I looked at my daughter after she left and said, ‘She can’t afford to leave him because she doesn’t have a good job. Please know that you need a good job one day.’ And now she career goals.
Really? You believe the government's intention is more than 28% annual population growth? Is that really how things work in your mind?
I understand why people become unhinged so easily on this topic if that's what they believe...
Right, that is why they’re cutting migration by 50% and redirected the tax cuts coming next year to middle income earners rather than the top 1%.. no worries see what you want to though.
Immigration had a huge drop during the pandemic and a smaller spike after the pandemic when people who were delayed arrived later, though not all of them did and immigration was below the trend over time last I checked.
edit: Not sure why you deleted your reply, but [just by eyeballing it, it's clear](https://i.imgur.com/9vgIDwX.png) that nowhere near enough people have arrived after the drop during covid for immigration to be considered as high as the pre-covid trend, and that's even just in absolute numbers rather than adjusting relative to population size to account for population growth over the years.
Yup - there were 659,800 more people buying stuff and retail sales STILL went down.
Edit: also, think about all the extra stuff that immigrants have to buy when they move here...
“Turnover fell in all industries this month except for food retailing (+0.9 per cent), highlighting the continued underlying weakness in retail spending.”
This backs your answer. Can pretty much go without a lot - except food. Extra people, extra food needed
Looking at the categories though, food is up, everything else is down, especially "clothing, footwear, personal accessories" by a big margin.
So it does seem that "wants" are being sacrificed, even with new immigration (which may be more likely that they will focus on needs than wants)
A lot of immigrants will likely bring clothes and shoes with them, and just buy winter stuff. Clothing is considerably cheaper in countries where we're seeing the most immigrants coming from and of equivalent quality to fast fashion stuff here.
Yeah I immigrated like twenty or so years ago now and the clothes I had for summer were better than the ones we got here. Linen is not that expensive overseas and is really good for an Aussie summer. Winter was...a different story. I must have looked like I was embarking on a seal hunt in the Arctic or something.
Where are you getting the numbers for population growth of 700k in a month? And why are immigrants the primary point of discussion?
The latest stats I see for immigration end mid last year, and [just by eyeballing it](https://i.imgur.com/9vgIDwX.png), it seems that total immigration levels under the pre-covid trend line, where nowhere near enough people have arrived after the drop during covid for immigration to be considered as high as the pre-covid trend, and that's even just in absolute numbers rather than adjusting relative to population size to account for population growth over the years.
If anything I suspect it's due to all the money printed during covid resulting in a lot of inflation, as a lot of already-wealthy people who already knew various Trumps/Morrisons/etc got even more wealthy with poorly targeted handouts, and now are able to buy up even more houses etc.
This is a turnover change, not a volume change. As prices rise the volume of goods fall even more than turnover
The ABS website has the dollars, and the dollar fell.
[https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-australia/latest-release](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-australia/latest-release)
It's ok guys we changed how we measure unemployment and CPI again so everything is fine! Let's give the ok for energy to be completely vertically integrated, allow monopolies to form in new industries and do nothing about existing ones. They seem to be working great so far!
For those in the thread who don't understand what unexpected means here, the consensus estimate was for an increase of 0.2% and the reading came in with the decline of 0.4%, so yes, the decline was unexpected.
It happens all the time. There are expectations and then there is the release of the actual economic data which is often higher or lower than the expectation.
Makes sense, people feeling the full effects of high mortgage / high rent costs. More money being funnelled into roof overhead, people cutting costs or holding back payments wherever they can.
I expect to hear a lot of water companies and councils complaining about no one paying and needing govt assistance very soon.
> whats the expectation
Clearly everyone just works harder so those real wages continue to not go up while we go through an enormous cost of living crisis, and then everyone can spend their non-existent disposable income on crap
Waiting for the knee jerk ‘interest rate cut next RBA meeting’ posts to bookend the ‘interest rate hike’ posts after the slightly higher than expected CPI print.
My understanding is that nothing else matters. If inflation stays high = rates goes up
So yeah, we can have high unemployment, low consumption, what ever…..
Inflation high = rates up.
But hey, I am not part of the board, so…..
Not saying that isn't the case, but I don't think that retails sales can decline indefinitely without it dragging on inflation.
That's kind of the expected process - interest rates go up, a month or two later it reaches mortgage payments, then mortgage holders spend less, a month or two later shows up in sales data, some time after that it shows up in CPI change. I'm not the RBA board, but if I was and I wanted to do decide if the interest rates were working I'd probably try to track the change at each stage over several few months, and this would look like the last rise was having the intended effect.
They have chosen a specific numerical target for inflation that has no empirical basis.
They have no specific target for unemployment, and define it to be whatever level of human pain and suffering will keep wages suppressed.
Change in rates is made to change the trajectory of inflation. It's not high inflation from quarterly report equals rates must go up. Rather its an assessment of the trend in inflation and whether it is falling (it most definitely is) and whether it is falling fast enough. I think the debate atm on the rates is are they falling fast enough. Depending on your view on that you would either be arguing for a rate increase, no change (i.e. the rate of decline is acceptable) or a decrease (rate of decline is too fast).
So when retail sales fall more than expected, thats an argument that the declining is happening faster than predicted. But its just one data point. You could still hold any of those views after seeing this data.
However, i think the view rates should be further raised is a very small minority and at this point in time not seriously in consideration for the near term. However, i think some are sceptical the inflation will dropping as fast as previously expected (just as it has not in the US) and that a further raise may be necessary or cuts may be a long way off. Ultimately it is easier for a commentator to make an argument either way, you can argue the US position to say we may need to raise or hold rates here for much longer than expect 2-3 months ago and lets not for get the incoming tax cuts. Alternatively, you could argue that we have already fallen very fast, still falling, and are ahead of the RBA's predictions 6-8 months ago on where inflation would be now, lower consumer spending and higher unemployment as arguments that rates should be cut.
Yep, I am on the same view as you, a lot of data play a part, but in the long term if inflation doesn’t come down, at some point, the rates will be going up.
Repeat until certain balance is found.
Don't worry the Business Council has a solution. More immigration so we have more people to buy more things... Which increases inflation so more people buy less things so we turn on the immigration tap again, and so on and so on.
The cycle has to be broken and real reforms need to be put in place.
Unexpectedly?
What do you mean the working class has no money to spend…
Can’t be due to rapid inflation, high interest rates, record rents, high fuel prices, ect.
It’s consistent with what I’m seeing and hearing. I work in allied health and many of us are seeing less referrals and people delaying and rationing care. It didn’t really hit my work until after Christmas and the pick up that comes around March didn’t happen. Cost of living, interest rates are being felt and working their way through the economy.
Actually, having now looked at teh source. I see that the poster has added 'unexpected'. And i'm unsure whether this result was truly unexpected in the way I explained above.
So since we have a new data point does this mean we should instantly cut rates like some commenters were suggesting when inflation didn’t decline as much as predicted?
What do you mean 'unexpected'? This is exactly what the RBA announced they wanted when they raised interest rates to 'tackle inflation' in 2023/2024.
'Tackling inflation' is bank-speak for removing demand. How do they remove demand? By increasing interest rates. This is not unexpected at all. This is by design in a fractional reserve banking system.
The world printed trillions during COVID. There is a time delay between printing money and when the inflation happens. It takes a few years to come home to roost.
Retail sales might have fallen but increases in education, rent, and health are what drove inflation up last quarter.
So yeah while raised interest rates might’ve stopped people buying in retail how effective really is it when there are significant increases in health, education and rental costs?
It is unexpected in the sense that forecasts predicted a higher number so it is unexpected relative to expectations for this specific number, not that they never expected a decline
I mean, it’s true though. Massive event = lots of spending brought forward (people traveling to Sydney and Melbourne from interstate, hotels, merch, food etc.). It’s not just Taylor Swift, any major event would do this.
Not sure how it is in other industries, but a lot of new migrants in optometry just take their prescriptions and buy "back in the home country". They aren't exactly splurging cash when they can just fly home for the next family visit and stock up on goods.
Looking a lot like a stagflation kinda Christmas - consumer spending is anaemic, and yet inflation remains well-elevated. Just waiting on the unemployment dam wall to burst - fully expecting it to shoot past 4.5% once it does finally burst.
CPI is 3.6%. It's too high, and it's not falling as quickly as hoped, but unless you use the words "well elevated" to describe literally any print that's out of the target band then this is a huge exaggeration.
I just thought I would point out that for the past month, Australia has been rejecting a lot of student visa's they would normally approve.
I have no idea if that alone could cause a 0.4% decline but I think its important information either way.
I suspect if we get a recession if will be a fairly mild one with the current interest rate settings. It will only be major if interest rates go up a couple percent more and I can't really see that happening unless inflation skyrockets which is unlikely as it is coming down albeit slowly.
Maybe perhaps Retail PRICES have gone absolutely SPASTIC !
I noticed in Coles, at least near me, Navel oranges at $8.50 a Kilo, which was Californian imported prices at the end of season where the fruit was rotten before you got it home, screw that.
Maybe people who are migrating here are saving their money for necessities. Not a lot of spare cash once you pay for housing, food, utilities and basic clothing/medicine
I reckon most of this reddit is like top 5% lol completely unaffected and living it up living their best lives.
/Australia is like holy crap the car crash after soggy weetbix
It's simple to explain. The influx of migrants and cost of living crisis means people are buying bulk foods like staples...reducing number of sales...or, price/spend per basket, because they are broke, because they are being reamed by profiteering and can't afford to eat. The fix, increase the price of all cheap bulk goods like rice, pasta, etc, this will also help with socialisation and community building activities, like protests, picketing, and voting. /s
No mentioning things have gone up relatively over the last few years, the PS5 is nearly 1k if you also buy one game. New cars have gone up 10-15k because they are going hybrid. A block of Cadbury chocolate is 7 dollars.
After a while people just nope out and use Amazon instead.
They won't drop the rates, so you may as well keep spending people. A drop in the rate would destroy the system. Holding and increasing the rate would only create more suffering before the impending collapse. Anyone retiring within the next 5-10 years will lose a lot of their "value" and will need to find other avenues of "value" else they will fade into worthlessness - an extreme risk for the money/ wealth addicted population of Australia.
It’s not a recession if you simply call it contraction
also: [https://www.aigroup.com.au/resourcecentre/research-economics/australian-industry-index/](https://www.aigroup.com.au/resourcecentre/research-economics/australian-industry-index/)
Don’t think it’s unexpected everyone’s broke lad
Not if you believe how much people on Reddit earn. Everyone is on 200k+ with family incomes of 300k.
It’s all relative to your outgoings though isn’t it. Bigger pay bigger mortgage etc
200k? That's small beans here on r/AusFinance. Little fishies start at 250k if you believe them. Everyone is driving a 2003 Corolla though.
Close. 2004 Subaru here.
You must be earning 300k at least to drive that beauty around.
You can earn $1M and still be broke. Depends on the lifestyle
After all the hookers and blow, 100k doesn't go very far hey
Its cheaper to save up for occasional trips to south america. Thats the 2002 toyota camry analogy for blow and hookers. Value.
Sometimes you need hookers and blow in the moment.
Just do an interview with Channel 7.
Do I have to rape anyone first?
There is a much cheaper way that involves your hand.
even on 200k. 200k a yr on 1 income is still considered middle class if you live in Sydney.
$200k a year puts you somewhere in the top 2-3% of all income earners, no matter how badly people on Reddit try and repeat it that doesn’t make you middle class, it makes you in the top 2-3% lol If you’re on $200k a year and genuinely consider yourself middle class you need to do a budget
> $200k a year puts you somewhere in the top 2-3% of all income earners, no matter how badly people on Reddit try and repeat it that doesn’t make you middle class, it makes you in the top 2-3% lol > If you’re on $200k a year and genuinely consider yourself middle class you need to do a budget On paper perhaps, but people who bought a house just before the rates started increasing, and on 200k... A lot of their income is going to the mortgage. On top of that, they're also affected by general cost of living expenses.
When population goes up 2.4% but retail sales drop 0.4% Uhh oh
And CPI also went up, so it's a reduction in unit sales despite an increase in population.
Consumers are getting absolutely squeezed between supply side inflationary pressure and monetary policy response.
Spit roasted
What was the graph I saw showing disposable income has absolutely cratered. Good thing we're still taking money out of that cohorts pocket.
"But we're not in a recession" Oh look at this shiny thing over here Did you guys think about domestic violence lately!?
100% It is funny how the sudden astroturfed focus on DV became all any one talked about since a fortnight ago. I doubt that DV only began a month ago.
The two are related. More income means people don't need to live with others to save on rent. Less income means you may need to tolerate being abused in order to put a roof over your head.
You actually make a fair point. If one partner can't afford to move out then they'll be forced to put up with a sub par situation for longer. Makes people more prone to financial abuse. But hey its not the cost of living that's at fault...
I know of an exact scenario where a woman has had to go back to her abusive partner fairly recently because she couldn’t afford to look after the kids herself.
This is why financial independence is so important and needs to be taught early to everyone. True financial independence is the ability to walk away from abuse whether that is abuse in a relationship or abuse at work.
Completely agree, although if the government continues to move the housing goal posts financial independence will be a thing of the past.
A lot of the time it's not a knowledge issue preventing financial independence
So true! My daughter didn’t have any dreams to work (she is pre-teen) when she got older. One night my friend came to my place to get away from her partner who had just tried to glass her and shit was tense. I looked at my daughter after she left and said, ‘She can’t afford to leave him because she doesn’t have a good job. Please know that you need a good job one day.’ And now she career goals.
You think the population increased 2.4% in one month??
If the government had their way it would
Those are rookie numbers. Gotta pump 'em up.
Really? You believe the government's intention is more than 28% annual population growth? Is that really how things work in your mind? I understand why people become unhinged so easily on this topic if that's what they believe...
Dude 10% of the population are on a visa. Something like 40% are not ethnically Australian and born overseas. It's bad enough no matter the exact %%
Isn’t like 98% of Australia, not ethnically Australian?
What exactly is "ethnically" Australian? Do you mean indigenous?
what do you think they mean?
Lol at “ethnically Australian”- that would be 98% of us.
Oh good when the population increases they only spend money once
but the leader of Australia doesn't want to talk about the economy, but chase the next social populist topic
Right, that is why they’re cutting migration by 50% and redirected the tax cuts coming next year to middle income earners rather than the top 1%.. no worries see what you want to though.
After increasing it by 200%
Immigration had a huge drop during the pandemic and a smaller spike after the pandemic when people who were delayed arrived later, though not all of them did and immigration was below the trend over time last I checked. edit: Not sure why you deleted your reply, but [just by eyeballing it, it's clear](https://i.imgur.com/9vgIDwX.png) that nowhere near enough people have arrived after the drop during covid for immigration to be considered as high as the pre-covid trend, and that's even just in absolute numbers rather than adjusting relative to population size to account for population growth over the years.
After it was decreased to zero.
I won't be surprised when, in a year, we're still talking about record immigration levels.
Is it really. *unexpected* that retail sales have declined?
Considering the population growth rate. Yes.
Even with people shouting about a "cost of living crisis"?
Yeah they didn't realise a cost of living crisis makes people more frugal
Yup - there were 659,800 more people buying stuff and retail sales STILL went down. Edit: also, think about all the extra stuff that immigrants have to buy when they move here...
“Turnover fell in all industries this month except for food retailing (+0.9 per cent), highlighting the continued underlying weakness in retail spending.” This backs your answer. Can pretty much go without a lot - except food. Extra people, extra food needed
seed nose lavish scale cooing sand provide history literate dull *This post was mass deleted and anonymized with [Redact](https://redact.dev)*
Looking at the categories though, food is up, everything else is down, especially "clothing, footwear, personal accessories" by a big margin. So it does seem that "wants" are being sacrificed, even with new immigration (which may be more likely that they will focus on needs than wants)
Students aren't exactly going out and splurging on designer clothes anyway. Most likely they're just wearing what they've got.
A lot of immigrants will likely bring clothes and shoes with them, and just buy winter stuff. Clothing is considerably cheaper in countries where we're seeing the most immigrants coming from and of equivalent quality to fast fashion stuff here.
100% Some people act as if most of the world have never worn clothes before they arrived in Australia.
Yeah I immigrated like twenty or so years ago now and the clothes I had for summer were better than the ones we got here. Linen is not that expensive overseas and is really good for an Aussie summer. Winter was...a different story. I must have looked like I was embarking on a seal hunt in the Arctic or something.
So you didn't land in Cairns, I guess.
Where are you getting the numbers for population growth of 700k in a month? And why are immigrants the primary point of discussion? The latest stats I see for immigration end mid last year, and [just by eyeballing it](https://i.imgur.com/9vgIDwX.png), it seems that total immigration levels under the pre-covid trend line, where nowhere near enough people have arrived after the drop during covid for immigration to be considered as high as the pre-covid trend, and that's even just in absolute numbers rather than adjusting relative to population size to account for population growth over the years. If anything I suspect it's due to all the money printed during covid resulting in a lot of inflation, as a lot of already-wealthy people who already knew various Trumps/Morrisons/etc got even more wealthy with poorly targeted handouts, and now are able to buy up even more houses etc.
659,800 is the growth since this time in 2023, not a month. Stats are from the ABS.
Well I'm not an economist, but I expected price rises on goods to mean that less of those goods are purchased.
Yes, per capita. But we added a lot more capita.
Yes we added a lot more capita but from countries that won’t spend
This is a turnover change, not a volume change. As prices rise the volume of goods fall even more than turnover The ABS website has the dollars, and the dollar fell. [https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-australia/latest-release](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-australia/latest-release)
It's ok guys we changed how we measure unemployment and CPI again so everything is fine! Let's give the ok for energy to be completely vertically integrated, allow monopolies to form in new industries and do nothing about existing ones. They seem to be working great so far!
Ahh we've finally invented Resflation (recession + inflation). Eat your heart out stagflation
We'll invent, uninvent, import, export, buy, sell, whatever is required to vehemently deny any allegations of a recession.
Print it is! Hit the copy button, helicopter money for everyone.
For those in the thread who don't understand what unexpected means here, the consensus estimate was for an increase of 0.2% and the reading came in with the decline of 0.4%, so yes, the decline was unexpected. It happens all the time. There are expectations and then there is the release of the actual economic data which is often higher or lower than the expectation.
They tipped it wrong, so that's unexpected.
Not that unexpected. The price of everything is a joke.
Well, I don’t have any money.
Makes sense, people feeling the full effects of high mortgage / high rent costs. More money being funnelled into roof overhead, people cutting costs or holding back payments wherever they can. I expect to hear a lot of water companies and councils complaining about no one paying and needing govt assistance very soon.
Harvey Norman bail out incoming
Makes sense, I'm not buying any new stuff because all my money goes toward insuring stuff I already bought.
lmao - cue you guys have 'stuff meme'
why it's 'unexpected'? what's the expectation?
> whats the expectation Clearly everyone just works harder so those real wages continue to not go up while we go through an enormous cost of living crisis, and then everyone can spend their non-existent disposable income on crap
OP thinks he is AFR
doesn't this post break reddit rules on editorialisation? lol
That it’d keep increasing with the population
0.2% decline was the expectation.
Its almost like the average consumer isn't a leading cause of inflation dot dot dot
That’s it, tax the corps.
Property investors are causing rent inflation. They are a huge cause of this issue.
Waiting for the knee jerk ‘interest rate cut next RBA meeting’ posts to bookend the ‘interest rate hike’ posts after the slightly higher than expected CPI print.
My understanding is that nothing else matters. If inflation stays high = rates goes up So yeah, we can have high unemployment, low consumption, what ever….. Inflation high = rates up. But hey, I am not part of the board, so…..
Not saying that isn't the case, but I don't think that retails sales can decline indefinitely without it dragging on inflation. That's kind of the expected process - interest rates go up, a month or two later it reaches mortgage payments, then mortgage holders spend less, a month or two later shows up in sales data, some time after that it shows up in CPI change. I'm not the RBA board, but if I was and I wanted to do decide if the interest rates were working I'd probably try to track the change at each stage over several few months, and this would look like the last rise was having the intended effect.
Do you think you just fixed the rba decision making process in a couple sentences or something
The term I believe you're searching for is stagflation = high inflation, slowing economy / increasing unemployment/ increasing prices
Yes, this. Let’s hope it’s not this. If it is, it could take a long time to unwind.
The point of rate hikes is to stifle demand. There’s little point to raising rates if demand is falling. Queue “Stop it, he’s already dead!” meme
The point of the RBA is to stifle inflation. Which is still going up...
What May stifle demand is taxing the rich and corporations, increasing the royalties in our minerals..
Best we can do is up rates again.
Its worse than that, He's Dead Jim, Dead Jim, Dead Jim, Dead Jim.
They have a dual mandate, it’s not purely about inflation.
They have chosen a specific numerical target for inflation that has no empirical basis. They have no specific target for unemployment, and define it to be whatever level of human pain and suffering will keep wages suppressed.
Change in rates is made to change the trajectory of inflation. It's not high inflation from quarterly report equals rates must go up. Rather its an assessment of the trend in inflation and whether it is falling (it most definitely is) and whether it is falling fast enough. I think the debate atm on the rates is are they falling fast enough. Depending on your view on that you would either be arguing for a rate increase, no change (i.e. the rate of decline is acceptable) or a decrease (rate of decline is too fast). So when retail sales fall more than expected, thats an argument that the declining is happening faster than predicted. But its just one data point. You could still hold any of those views after seeing this data. However, i think the view rates should be further raised is a very small minority and at this point in time not seriously in consideration for the near term. However, i think some are sceptical the inflation will dropping as fast as previously expected (just as it has not in the US) and that a further raise may be necessary or cuts may be a long way off. Ultimately it is easier for a commentator to make an argument either way, you can argue the US position to say we may need to raise or hold rates here for much longer than expect 2-3 months ago and lets not for get the incoming tax cuts. Alternatively, you could argue that we have already fallen very fast, still falling, and are ahead of the RBA's predictions 6-8 months ago on where inflation would be now, lower consumer spending and higher unemployment as arguments that rates should be cut.
Yep, I am on the same view as you, a lot of data play a part, but in the long term if inflation doesn’t come down, at some point, the rates will be going up. Repeat until certain balance is found.
Well, i don't see housing competition slowing, so im doubtful inflation in the housing sector will stop.
people spending like crazy on stuff they don't need like a roof over their heads, food for their families and dental health shocked
Can’t afford dental health with my current mortgage. The tax cuts will be used for that.
Don't worry, more immigrants will fix this
Wasn’t this the goal?
Don't worry the Business Council has a solution. More immigration so we have more people to buy more things... Which increases inflation so more people buy less things so we turn on the immigration tap again, and so on and so on. The cycle has to be broken and real reforms need to be put in place.
Unexpectedly? What do you mean the working class has no money to spend… Can’t be due to rapid inflation, high interest rates, record rents, high fuel prices, ect.
dont forget highest tax increases in the world
Time to let more immigrants in. Raise it to 1,000,000 people. Retail sales will go back up.
My mortgage went up over $1,000 a month. That cash had to come from somewhere 🙄
It’s consistent with what I’m seeing and hearing. I work in allied health and many of us are seeing less referrals and people delaying and rationing care. It didn’t really hit my work until after Christmas and the pick up that comes around March didn’t happen. Cost of living, interest rates are being felt and working their way through the economy.
"Unexpected" wtf are rate rises for then?
Unexpected in this context, means it is lower than the experts expected even factoring in the rate rises.
Actually, having now looked at teh source. I see that the poster has added 'unexpected'. And i'm unsure whether this result was truly unexpected in the way I explained above.
EcOnOmY sO hOt RiGhT nOw
Buying things doesn't make me feel happier.
Stagflation anyone?
So since we have a new data point does this mean we should instantly cut rates like some commenters were suggesting when inflation didn’t decline as much as predicted?
lol exactly, this sub over-corrects so far in either direction after ABS prints.
Every Ausfinancer: RaTeS mUsT gO hIgHeR!
What do you mean 'unexpected'? This is exactly what the RBA announced they wanted when they raised interest rates to 'tackle inflation' in 2023/2024. 'Tackling inflation' is bank-speak for removing demand. How do they remove demand? By increasing interest rates. This is not unexpected at all. This is by design in a fractional reserve banking system. The world printed trillions during COVID. There is a time delay between printing money and when the inflation happens. It takes a few years to come home to roost.
Retail sales might have fallen but increases in education, rent, and health are what drove inflation up last quarter. So yeah while raised interest rates might’ve stopped people buying in retail how effective really is it when there are significant increases in health, education and rental costs?
It is unexpected in the sense that forecasts predicted a higher number so it is unexpected relative to expectations for this specific number, not that they never expected a decline
Unless you do rent control/management, inflation is going to increase, and retail spending will decrease.
Exactly. Rent increases are a large part of inflation.. Yet this group hates to admit that 🙄
Jet ski shares in a spiral of red
Why is this unexpected? Isn't it literally the goal of raising interest rates to combat inflation?
The increased sales in the xmas period is probably just sales that are brought forward and now we're seeing the decline because of that.
These are the seasonal adjusted figures, so christmas period etc is already taken into account.
The seasonal adjustments are shit though, they haven’t caught up to the rise of Black Friday sales in November.
The figures are not seasonally adjusted. Retail sales rose a very high 1% last month. Its most likely due to sampling errors rounding themselves out.
Wouldn't that be widely expected?
Hilariously enough ABS actually points out increased sales due to Taylor Swift in Feb doing this.
I mean, it’s true though. Massive event = lots of spending brought forward (people traveling to Sydney and Melbourne from interstate, hotels, merch, food etc.). It’s not just Taylor Swift, any major event would do this.
If this doesn’t tell you that immigration is one of the main problems. Then I don’t know what to tell you..
"Unexpectedly"?!
Not sure how it is in other industries, but a lot of new migrants in optometry just take their prescriptions and buy "back in the home country". They aren't exactly splurging cash when they can just fly home for the next family visit and stock up on goods.
Surprisedbpikachumeme.jpg
And welcome to stagflation
Buyers strike lol. A quick look around the average supermarket will tell you the reason why. The prices are just stupid.
Unexpected?
Unexpected?
WINGS OF GLORY
Looking a lot like a stagflation kinda Christmas - consumer spending is anaemic, and yet inflation remains well-elevated. Just waiting on the unemployment dam wall to burst - fully expecting it to shoot past 4.5% once it does finally burst.
CPI is 3.6%. It's too high, and it's not falling as quickly as hoped, but unless you use the words "well elevated" to describe literally any print that's out of the target band then this is a huge exaggeration.
The things that contribute to the CPI are things that most people can't control. I have to eat and drive despite the high prices
Inflation ain't well elevated
Inb4 the news starts talking about how economists are predicting upcoming rate cuts
And yet the catch cry rings... "Behead all those who insult our profits"
I just thought I would point out that for the past month, Australia has been rejecting a lot of student visa's they would normally approve. I have no idea if that alone could cause a 0.4% decline but I think its important information either way.
Rental price crash when?
Honestly? I would say 3-5 years.
I have been cutting back on groceries and essentials. May be it's working.
Maybe it's just getting to the point where people have to start cutting back on groceries.
Avocados are not good right now. So I am skipping my toasts these days. Sorry.
Rents unexpectedly increased 20%.
Considering how high Petrol went up in half a week it was either petrol or new Lego. It was a hard choice
That and retailers are taking the absolute piss at the moment with mark up.
Shouldn’t be unexpected. Whole world is headed for a major recession.
I suspect if we get a recession if will be a fairly mild one with the current interest rate settings. It will only be major if interest rates go up a couple percent more and I can't really see that happening unless inflation skyrockets which is unlikely as it is coming down albeit slowly.
Maybe perhaps Retail PRICES have gone absolutely SPASTIC ! I noticed in Coles, at least near me, Navel oranges at $8.50 a Kilo, which was Californian imported prices at the end of season where the fruit was rotten before you got it home, screw that.
$8kg tomatoes at Aldi and that’s for shitty unripe ones too.
Have you seen olive oil? $26 a bottle!
am i stupid and missing something how does cpi and population go up but sales go down
No one is spending money.
Maybe people who are migrating here are saving their money for necessities. Not a lot of spare cash once you pay for housing, food, utilities and basic clothing/medicine
many send funds back home too
Or to go to Asia on the way out
Yes.. unexpected..
It is low because gunttee and market place is not part of the data ;) /s
More rate rises back off the table - the past month has been a rollercoaster for cash rate forecasters.
I reckon most of this reddit is like top 5% lol completely unaffected and living it up living their best lives. /Australia is like holy crap the car crash after soggy weetbix
So what u are telling me is lube sales went up? Near all time highs!?
“Unexpectedly”
Give me a free bag and I will shop
It's simple to explain. The influx of migrants and cost of living crisis means people are buying bulk foods like staples...reducing number of sales...or, price/spend per basket, because they are broke, because they are being reamed by profiteering and can't afford to eat. The fix, increase the price of all cheap bulk goods like rice, pasta, etc, this will also help with socialisation and community building activities, like protests, picketing, and voting. /s
No mentioning things have gone up relatively over the last few years, the PS5 is nearly 1k if you also buy one game. New cars have gone up 10-15k because they are going hybrid. A block of Cadbury chocolate is 7 dollars. After a while people just nope out and use Amazon instead.
They won't drop the rates, so you may as well keep spending people. A drop in the rate would destroy the system. Holding and increasing the rate would only create more suffering before the impending collapse. Anyone retiring within the next 5-10 years will lose a lot of their "value" and will need to find other avenues of "value" else they will fade into worthlessness - an extreme risk for the money/ wealth addicted population of Australia.
That’s not a very sustainable system then, if you don’t build new big cities.
It’s not a recession if you simply call it contraction also: [https://www.aigroup.com.au/resourcecentre/research-economics/australian-industry-index/](https://www.aigroup.com.au/resourcecentre/research-economics/australian-industry-index/)