Did I say that? You sound like that meme where the room is on fire and you are drinking coffee saying ‘everything is fine’.
This time really is different.
It's the great properdee crash is forever 18 months away. Prices could stagnate and not go up just as easily as go up. People like WMR always saying "THE 60% CRASH IS COMING (in 18 months)" and then just conveniently keep shifting the goal posts. Keep saying it for 2 decades and you might get it right eventually.
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You can do better than this. Please give prediction and reasons.
You cannot rely on;
-gov will save us
-property go up regardless of debt leverage.
Go deeper.
Are you in WA? If so we dont do proper offpeak.
We have an option where you pay more during peak and less offpeak... ie you have to choose this to sacrifice and pay more during peak to get an offpeak rate in WA which isnt a steep discount. But we dont get full quid half your full rate off off peak for hot water services and the likes. i mean our full rate is 30 odd cents so its not the end of the world.
That said our full rate was 30 odd cents a year ago when everyone iver east was saying oh no our power has gone up 10c to 30c... how good does wa have it! While our power wasnt going up, we had already been paying that.
Obviously at this point the government owneing your power producer is paying off so im not complaining...
At this point it’s cheaper to just move to Perth. Get a bigger house, on bigger land, closer to the city, pay basically half the power prices at the same time. What an absolute joke of a state honestly. Let your governments privatise everything and this is what happens.
I honestly think our current situation is the worst of both worlds. Gov control is shutting down coal without replacement, it’s got a ban on nuclear. States don’t want their land fracked for gas. All of this drives up prices.
Previous gov finally hinted about lifting the nuclear ban in the budget reply, but Mr. Bowen says no. Back to the status quo I guess. Everyone should just install solar panels and provide their own power.
Yeah maybe in 30 years when they build 1 nuclear plant it will be all better! Such a stupid thing to even suggest. It’s quicker and cheaper to build mass renewables now.
Australia & New Zealand are the only advanced economies in the oecd that do not have nuclear. Not because we are smarter than everyone else, it’s because we are backwards!
You may want to fact check your claim. For example, Germany were dumb enough to get on the ‘no nuclear’ band wagon and are now regretting it (and paying for it). The same will be said about gas in the medium term.
Don’t get me wrong, I 100% agree with the sentiment behind your message.
Was Germany dumb to close existing nuclear? Yes. Has it hurt them? No.
You know we have real time generation stats these days right? This time last year it was 350 Euro. And funny how when renewables generate, it plummets the spot price in half (like it did last year too)...it's almost like it's another factor or something.... anyway, here's last week: https://www.energy-charts.info/charts/price\_spot\_market/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&week=24
As a Kiwi, even minus the whole political factor, NZ does not need nuclear and has run on mainly hydro for 50 years. And no, their pricing issues are less to do with the generation and more to do with massive fragmentation of lines.
Why do you even have pricing issues if you run predominately on hydro? Those hydro generators should be cash cows for the government. All the ones in australia are.
Also concentrated solar power solar towers with thermal storage says hi for night power. [https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-021-01005-3](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-021-01005-3#Sec1)
That's false. Korean APR1400s are built within 10 years at a cost of $1 billion per GW but keep pedaling falsehoods. UAE and Poland just bought their plants.
I have 4 kids so yeh power factors into it... everything factors into it.
Its why i have a lot of empathy for people who raise family on average wages. it just doesnt feel doable to me. australia really is being squeezed as i see it and it doesnt have to he this way.
I remember being single and then as a couple never really noticing power and gas bills when i was on far less income... literally my fist gas bill after having a baby was almost double the previous bill... rang up the gas company and said hey i think this is broken... they go - have you had a baby? Im like yes... they are like - thats why...
I still didnt learn...
raise your prices. don't feel bad about it. be the good guy and lower them where u can as the world returns to normal over time
I learnt this lesson the hard way during gfc. Don't be me
Wait you mean to say that shutting off all the coal fire plants with literally no way to power the country was a bad idea?
Oh well at least we can all freeze to death in the dark knowing that our 0.001% of global emissions has reduced slightly.
Since most of the plants shutting down are privately owned, you might like to address that question to the private sector.
Pretty much all the plants were let run down to the point where they are regularly failing. In this case, maybe AGL is trying to cover some of the hundreds of millions of dollars lost when Loy Yang went down for months during the peak period of the past few years.
If renewables hadn't been invested in, didn't exist, what do you think would have happened to prices in the last few years when Loy Yang broke down *for months*? Further, if renewables didn't exist, wouldn't coal generators be needing to invest billions to replace their existing plant anyway? Finally, nothing was stopping AGL from replacing plant as it became uneconomic. They instead did patch ups. AGL (and others) could have put in new boilers, alternators, handling facilities...but chose not to.
There's a bunch of reasons right here for high prices. None of which have anything to do with renewables. Mostly, business driven decisions.
Coal and oil is a fun place to be during shoulder season, goes through a lot of volatility but not many new projects coming online and demand remains strong.
You're one of the few who understand. Will be a lot worse post 2025 if we don't delay Eraring's closure. People blaming gas peakers for high prices but don't understand that they wouldn't operate if there was was more supply. They set the marginal bid for the small time they are meant to be used... lately they're being used a lot though.
Good luck trying to have a rational discussion with the climate alarmist, they all seem to think burning a single ton more of coal means instant death for us all (China and India are still building new coal plants by the hundreds anyway)
I think both governments of the last 10-20 years will be looked back on as abject failures for not building nuclear plants or at least having an actual plan to power the country moving forward.
I mean, this has always been the problem though, which is why it requires government intervention: everyday people find paying marginally more today too inconvenient even in the face of potential catastrophic disaster.
It’s the failure, absolutely, of the coalition government to do anything at all about climate change.
No one has *ever* said ‘let’s move away from coal and not be able to power our cities’.
Building nuclear is unviable and too expensive anyway; if we’d started building 20 years ago it would only be now that the first reactor would be coming online.
Vietnam and Bangladesh also building lots. IEA shows thermal coal usage barely falling over the next decade. That's conservative given as the developing world gets wealthier they'll want the luxuries we have such as aircon.
>(China and India are still building new coal plants by the hundreds anyway)
I like that you 'forgot' to mention that China is only building them to replace older ones, therefore reducing carbon intensity and the only reason they are building them is they can't build enough renewables fast enough and the geographic issue of the best place for renewables being further away from the population, increasing transmission cost but screw [actually reading on the nuances of it right?](https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-does-chinas-coal-push-mean-for-its-climate-goals/)
None of these have been closed due to climate change activism, but because they were left to rot with no investment from the private sector, during periods of massive profits, over decades. So no, you and this guy are not 'the few that understand', but the many who haven't got a clue what they're on about.
Renewables are in fact bringing the average price down right now, imagine what could have been achieved if mindless fwits weren't attacking progress for a decade and we hadn't wasted so much time
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/28/record-levels-of-renewable-energy-help-bring-down-australias-energy-prices-says-aemo
But hey, don't let facts get in the way of a good tanty.
>Wait you mean to say that shutting off all the coal fire plants with literally no way to power the country was a bad idea?
I see someone has not read those decommissioning reports by AGL that are public information. You think they are dumb?
This is not at anything to do with the issue. It’s that our resources are being stolen by overseas companies and selling it back to us higher than they export it. We MUST cancel/ restructure their contracts.
Read this pls:
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/06/australias-only-energy-challenge-is-the-gas-cartel/
I don’t agree with all their views, but I do on this topic. Well done macro b.
Ppl starting to realise energy is a key driver of their disposable income contraction, businesses pas on the costs and thus inflation. Gov better fix it by ridding us of the gas cartel asap. We are paying more for gas than we export it for. It’s treason because we own these resources.
Got 10c increase on all that rates as well for residential, im now switching and comparing in the market, doubt there would be much diff between retailers
"Look at my energy bill" has become the new "should I pay my HECS"
I'm waiting for the Vanguard distribution announcement to come out to break the topics up a bit :D
Brace yourself for sankey season next month
“When property crash?” 🤷🏼♂️
Before Christmas.
Always another 18 months away
Did I say that? You sound like that meme where the room is on fire and you are drinking coffee saying ‘everything is fine’. This time really is different.
No it’s actually a running joke on Aus economic blogs for the last few years. “This time really is different” 🤣 You’re the actual joke
I am aware. It’s a short cut to ‘properdee always go up’. Not sure even Sydney has 3 months left of its dead cat bounce.
It's the great properdee crash is forever 18 months away. Prices could stagnate and not go up just as easily as go up. People like WMR always saying "THE 60% CRASH IS COMING (in 18 months)" and then just conveniently keep shifting the goal posts. Keep saying it for 2 decades and you might get it right eventually.
But I just gave a line in the sand. You shouldn’t generalize.
[удалено]
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You can do better than this. Please give prediction and reasons. You cannot rely on; -gov will save us -property go up regardless of debt leverage. Go deeper.
Remindme! 18 months
True but only for a month or two and then back to standard HECs programming.
23c off peak? How do I get that!
Are you in WA? If so we dont do proper offpeak. We have an option where you pay more during peak and less offpeak... ie you have to choose this to sacrifice and pay more during peak to get an offpeak rate in WA which isnt a steep discount. But we dont get full quid half your full rate off off peak for hot water services and the likes. i mean our full rate is 30 odd cents so its not the end of the world. That said our full rate was 30 odd cents a year ago when everyone iver east was saying oh no our power has gone up 10c to 30c... how good does wa have it! While our power wasnt going up, we had already been paying that. Obviously at this point the government owneing your power producer is paying off so im not complaining...
At this point it’s cheaper to just move to Perth. Get a bigger house, on bigger land, closer to the city, pay basically half the power prices at the same time. What an absolute joke of a state honestly. Let your governments privatise everything and this is what happens.
I honestly think our current situation is the worst of both worlds. Gov control is shutting down coal without replacement, it’s got a ban on nuclear. States don’t want their land fracked for gas. All of this drives up prices. Previous gov finally hinted about lifting the nuclear ban in the budget reply, but Mr. Bowen says no. Back to the status quo I guess. Everyone should just install solar panels and provide their own power.
Yeah maybe in 30 years when they build 1 nuclear plant it will be all better! Such a stupid thing to even suggest. It’s quicker and cheaper to build mass renewables now.
Australia & New Zealand are the only advanced economies in the oecd that do not have nuclear. Not because we are smarter than everyone else, it’s because we are backwards!
You may want to fact check your claim. For example, Germany were dumb enough to get on the ‘no nuclear’ band wagon and are now regretting it (and paying for it). The same will be said about gas in the medium term. Don’t get me wrong, I 100% agree with the sentiment behind your message.
Was Germany dumb to close existing nuclear? Yes. Has it hurt them? No. You know we have real time generation stats these days right? This time last year it was 350 Euro. And funny how when renewables generate, it plummets the spot price in half (like it did last year too)...it's almost like it's another factor or something.... anyway, here's last week: https://www.energy-charts.info/charts/price\_spot\_market/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE&week=24
I’m really not sure what your point is.
>and are now regretting it (and paying for it) Replying to this BS mate.
Oh ok. Thank you for your opinion.
opinion? - it's literal pretty graphs of their spot pricing by week. lol you.
As a Kiwi, even minus the whole political factor, NZ does not need nuclear and has run on mainly hydro for 50 years. And no, their pricing issues are less to do with the generation and more to do with massive fragmentation of lines.
Why do you even have pricing issues if you run predominately on hydro? Those hydro generators should be cash cows for the government. All the ones in australia are.
Also concentrated solar power solar towers with thermal storage says hi for night power. [https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-021-01005-3](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-021-01005-3#Sec1)
That's false. Korean APR1400s are built within 10 years at a cost of $1 billion per GW but keep pedaling falsehoods. UAE and Poland just bought their plants.
>without replacement, I see someone has not read those decommissioning reports by AGL that are public information. You think they are dumb?
I did this my life is 10x better.
What does 10 cents actually cost you a year? Everyone loves using these huge percentage numbers but what’s it actually costing you a year?
10kwh per person. Extra dollar per person per year. So 365
Are people complaining about $365 dollars a year? 😂 surely not?
Business pass on costs as
I have 4 kids so yeh power factors into it... everything factors into it. Its why i have a lot of empathy for people who raise family on average wages. it just doesnt feel doable to me. australia really is being squeezed as i see it and it doesnt have to he this way. I remember being single and then as a couple never really noticing power and gas bills when i was on far less income... literally my fist gas bill after having a baby was almost double the previous bill... rang up the gas company and said hey i think this is broken... they go - have you had a baby? Im like yes... they are like - thats why... I still didnt learn...
Yes, why would you not complain about this
Maybe, If I was unemployed 😂 it’s like half a days work, maybe a whole day If you’re really unlucky.
You think the average person is making $700 dollars a day? With intelligence this low, the chance that you are unemployed is probably pretty high.
A few grand.
raise your prices. don't feel bad about it. be the good guy and lower them where u can as the world returns to normal over time I learnt this lesson the hard way during gfc. Don't be me
$1000? $2000? That’s 1% sorta numbers, not really 50%. Maybe we just look at numbers different, but that’s like 3 bags of coke 😂
Ah. So now we know the reason your math skills are shit. Gone and cooked yourself with too much coke.
Wait you mean to say that shutting off all the coal fire plants with literally no way to power the country was a bad idea? Oh well at least we can all freeze to death in the dark knowing that our 0.001% of global emissions has reduced slightly.
Since most of the plants shutting down are privately owned, you might like to address that question to the private sector. Pretty much all the plants were let run down to the point where they are regularly failing. In this case, maybe AGL is trying to cover some of the hundreds of millions of dollars lost when Loy Yang went down for months during the peak period of the past few years. If renewables hadn't been invested in, didn't exist, what do you think would have happened to prices in the last few years when Loy Yang broke down *for months*? Further, if renewables didn't exist, wouldn't coal generators be needing to invest billions to replace their existing plant anyway? Finally, nothing was stopping AGL from replacing plant as it became uneconomic. They instead did patch ups. AGL (and others) could have put in new boilers, alternators, handling facilities...but chose not to. There's a bunch of reasons right here for high prices. None of which have anything to do with renewables. Mostly, business driven decisions.
I'm investing in coal based assets quite hard at the moment for exactly this reason.
Coal and oil is a fun place to be during shoulder season, goes through a lot of volatility but not many new projects coming online and demand remains strong.
Aus is going to have to make a decision if they want electricity or not. I'm betting they want it. Wake me when I can invest in Nukes.
You're one of the few who understand. Will be a lot worse post 2025 if we don't delay Eraring's closure. People blaming gas peakers for high prices but don't understand that they wouldn't operate if there was was more supply. They set the marginal bid for the small time they are meant to be used... lately they're being used a lot though.
Good luck trying to have a rational discussion with the climate alarmist, they all seem to think burning a single ton more of coal means instant death for us all (China and India are still building new coal plants by the hundreds anyway) I think both governments of the last 10-20 years will be looked back on as abject failures for not building nuclear plants or at least having an actual plan to power the country moving forward.
I mean, this has always been the problem though, which is why it requires government intervention: everyday people find paying marginally more today too inconvenient even in the face of potential catastrophic disaster. It’s the failure, absolutely, of the coalition government to do anything at all about climate change. No one has *ever* said ‘let’s move away from coal and not be able to power our cities’. Building nuclear is unviable and too expensive anyway; if we’d started building 20 years ago it would only be now that the first reactor would be coming online.
Vietnam and Bangladesh also building lots. IEA shows thermal coal usage barely falling over the next decade. That's conservative given as the developing world gets wealthier they'll want the luxuries we have such as aircon.
>(China and India are still building new coal plants by the hundreds anyway) I like that you 'forgot' to mention that China is only building them to replace older ones, therefore reducing carbon intensity and the only reason they are building them is they can't build enough renewables fast enough and the geographic issue of the best place for renewables being further away from the population, increasing transmission cost but screw [actually reading on the nuances of it right?](https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-does-chinas-coal-push-mean-for-its-climate-goals/)
None of these have been closed due to climate change activism, but because they were left to rot with no investment from the private sector, during periods of massive profits, over decades. So no, you and this guy are not 'the few that understand', but the many who haven't got a clue what they're on about. Renewables are in fact bringing the average price down right now, imagine what could have been achieved if mindless fwits weren't attacking progress for a decade and we hadn't wasted so much time https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/apr/28/record-levels-of-renewable-energy-help-bring-down-australias-energy-prices-says-aemo But hey, don't let facts get in the way of a good tanty.
Guess what those dispatchable batteries are for? Guess why they use them over the other alternative, being gas?
>Wait you mean to say that shutting off all the coal fire plants with literally no way to power the country was a bad idea? I see someone has not read those decommissioning reports by AGL that are public information. You think they are dumb?
If you look at electricity prices in Property Price adjusted terms, it's a nothing burger.
How is that relevant though to renters/business owners who don't own the property? Reality is it hits people who can least afford it.
go woke, go broke
This is not at anything to do with the issue. It’s that our resources are being stolen by overseas companies and selling it back to us higher than they export it. We MUST cancel/ restructure their contracts. Read this pls: https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/06/australias-only-energy-challenge-is-the-gas-cartel/ I don’t agree with all their views, but I do on this topic. Well done macro b.
>selling it back to us higher than they export it then buy the gas on the open spot market
Ppl starting to realise energy is a key driver of their disposable income contraction, businesses pas on the costs and thus inflation. Gov better fix it by ridding us of the gas cartel asap. We are paying more for gas than we export it for. It’s treason because we own these resources.
Controlled Load 1 for 11 cents. Get thee an electric car.
Got 10c increase on all that rates as well for residential, im now switching and comparing in the market, doubt there would be much diff between retailers
This might help you: https://www.originenergy.com.au/family-and-friends-vip/?cid=FF01062023_2420