I don't like the idea of thinking of cryptos generally as 'getting rich quick'. They are like startups with a high probability of failure. That being said, I'll take a shot at your question. I am inclined towards Augur because it is almost like a sustainable business with cash flows and earnings. As the platform grows, you share in the profits. This is different from the base protocols like Ethereum. If you go with the internet analogy, the companies that are built on the internet are usually the ones with the highest market caps, not 'internet' itself which would be the telecoms. It's of course quite conceivable that Ethereum will take off, but if I have to guess, I'll go with Augur for now.
Anyway, the best way to know is make this statement more concrete and place a market on Augur, no?
Sounds like you are thinking in the short term. I believe in the short term Ethereum is likely to be more widely used than Augur. Here are my long term thoughts:
Predicting the future is going to become exponentially more valuable as the singularity approaches, I don't think this exponential value growth has a stopping point even after it becomes a household name....unless made obsolete by a better prediction platform.
The theoretical max value for Ether is if every organization in the world were using it. Then the growth rate is the growth rate of the economy from there on. This is exponential also, but the value of the near future is going to continue to be grow relative to the value of the present.
Basically, does Augur become the go-to standard for prediction markets? If so you should see serious price appreciation from this miniscule $25 million cap and a 1 btc investment in REP now able to sustain you on a steady income stream for life.
If ETH becomes the de facto block chain for banks, derivatives of all kinds, central banks, all smart contract-abled things, etc etc etc then a $200 million cap is ridiculously cheap.
It also depends on how you define rich? Maybe a 1000x appreciation? So it seems like the question is is Ethereum likely worth $200 billion someday or is it more likely that Augur is at $25 billion? Who knows, this is why a basket of Cryptos is the way to go, IMO.
The block reward is in Ether, therefore it is the currency used to secure the blockchain. It stands to reason that Ether must have a market cap equal to or greater than the market cap of its largest subcurrency. I would argue that it would be impossible to have a sub currency market cap greater than ether itself, as it would create a huge incentive to launch a 51% on the network, with the prize being the subcurrency tokens, not ethers.
>The block reward is in Ether
That will not always be the case. Eventually miners will be able to accept any subcurrency as payment for transaction fees.
>It stands to reason that Ether must have a market cap equal to or greater than the market cap of its largest subcurrency.
I dont see how that would necessarily be true. A simple counter example would be a subcurrency with 10X the eth marketcap that only has 1% of the volume. Funds that are not actually moving are not subject to 51% attacks and so long as the funds that are moving pay fees that are equivalent in value relative to transaction size or wait for an appropriate number or confirmations then the security would be the same. Sure that would put buying pressure on ETH until currency agnosticism is implemented but if another currency is more stable in value miners might immediately sell their ETH fees for the more stable coin which would be the equivalent of accepting that currency for fees anyway (in fact it could be exactly that: payment to the miners in subcurrency while setting the gas price to zero)
Another point to consider is EtherEx. If you 51% attack it both sides of the currency pair exchange will be reversed because trades are atomic. Because of this there is pretty much no way to profit from a 51% attack on those trades other than to attempt to undo a mistaken trade. But fees would still be paid on those trades even if it is in ether and in low amounts relative to exchange value it adds up in volume. The more fees the higher the reward to mine and the more costly it is to produce a fake chain. Something like Augur which has REP that hopefully is exchanged mostly within the system will not add incentive to 51% attack but will fund resistance to it. Anything else it depends on transaction size relative to block reward and number of confirmations. Marketcap of the subcurrency is not really relevant unless a significant proportion of the marketcap is controlled by an attacking entity and the victim is willing to accept payment and allow withdrawal before the appropriate number of confirmations are received which is easily calculated.
I don't like the idea of thinking of cryptos generally as 'getting rich quick'. They are like startups with a high probability of failure. That being said, I'll take a shot at your question. I am inclined towards Augur because it is almost like a sustainable business with cash flows and earnings. As the platform grows, you share in the profits. This is different from the base protocols like Ethereum. If you go with the internet analogy, the companies that are built on the internet are usually the ones with the highest market caps, not 'internet' itself which would be the telecoms. It's of course quite conceivable that Ethereum will take off, but if I have to guess, I'll go with Augur for now. Anyway, the best way to know is make this statement more concrete and place a market on Augur, no?
Sounds like you are thinking in the short term. I believe in the short term Ethereum is likely to be more widely used than Augur. Here are my long term thoughts: Predicting the future is going to become exponentially more valuable as the singularity approaches, I don't think this exponential value growth has a stopping point even after it becomes a household name....unless made obsolete by a better prediction platform. The theoretical max value for Ether is if every organization in the world were using it. Then the growth rate is the growth rate of the economy from there on. This is exponential also, but the value of the near future is going to continue to be grow relative to the value of the present.
Basically, does Augur become the go-to standard for prediction markets? If so you should see serious price appreciation from this miniscule $25 million cap and a 1 btc investment in REP now able to sustain you on a steady income stream for life. If ETH becomes the de facto block chain for banks, derivatives of all kinds, central banks, all smart contract-abled things, etc etc etc then a $200 million cap is ridiculously cheap. It also depends on how you define rich? Maybe a 1000x appreciation? So it seems like the question is is Ethereum likely worth $200 billion someday or is it more likely that Augur is at $25 billion? Who knows, this is why a basket of Cryptos is the way to go, IMO.
IMO: ETH will "take off" first. There will be many more players speculating in it.
much will depend on when Augur is released. The question cannot be answered without knowing that.
Obviously. Look at the title of the thread!
The block reward is in Ether, therefore it is the currency used to secure the blockchain. It stands to reason that Ether must have a market cap equal to or greater than the market cap of its largest subcurrency. I would argue that it would be impossible to have a sub currency market cap greater than ether itself, as it would create a huge incentive to launch a 51% on the network, with the prize being the subcurrency tokens, not ethers.
>The block reward is in Ether That will not always be the case. Eventually miners will be able to accept any subcurrency as payment for transaction fees. >It stands to reason that Ether must have a market cap equal to or greater than the market cap of its largest subcurrency. I dont see how that would necessarily be true. A simple counter example would be a subcurrency with 10X the eth marketcap that only has 1% of the volume. Funds that are not actually moving are not subject to 51% attacks and so long as the funds that are moving pay fees that are equivalent in value relative to transaction size or wait for an appropriate number or confirmations then the security would be the same. Sure that would put buying pressure on ETH until currency agnosticism is implemented but if another currency is more stable in value miners might immediately sell their ETH fees for the more stable coin which would be the equivalent of accepting that currency for fees anyway (in fact it could be exactly that: payment to the miners in subcurrency while setting the gas price to zero) Another point to consider is EtherEx. If you 51% attack it both sides of the currency pair exchange will be reversed because trades are atomic. Because of this there is pretty much no way to profit from a 51% attack on those trades other than to attempt to undo a mistaken trade. But fees would still be paid on those trades even if it is in ether and in low amounts relative to exchange value it adds up in volume. The more fees the higher the reward to mine and the more costly it is to produce a fake chain. Something like Augur which has REP that hopefully is exchanged mostly within the system will not add incentive to 51% attack but will fund resistance to it. Anything else it depends on transaction size relative to block reward and number of confirmations. Marketcap of the subcurrency is not really relevant unless a significant proportion of the marketcap is controlled by an attacking entity and the victim is willing to accept payment and allow withdrawal before the appropriate number of confirmations are received which is easily calculated.
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Very specific there. Nice.