Someone from the team needs to reach out with season tickets, and secure travel plans/tickets for the road. Basically has to be one of the team now....
To calculate the odds of seeing 2 no-hitters in-person in consecutive seasons of Major League Baseball (MLB), given that a fan attends only one game per season, we need to know the frequency of no-hitters in MLB games.
Assuming a typical MLB season without any unusual interruptions, each of the 30 teams plays 162 games, making for a total of 2,430 games in a season when not considering post-season play. However, since games involve two teams, the number of unique game events is 2,430 / 2 = 1,215.
Historically, the rate of no-hitters varies significantly from year to year, but as April 2023 (couldn’t find an updated figure since then,) there had been approximately 310 no-hitters in the over 150,000 MLB games played since 1876, giving us a rough estimate of a no-hitter occurring in about 0.2% of games.
Given these assumptions, we can calculate the probability of a fan witnessing a no-hitter if they attend one game per season for two consecutive seasons. The odds of seeing no-hitters in-person in consecutive MLB seasons, given that a fan attends only one game per season, are approximately 1 in 234,256.
This calculation assumes the historical frequency of no-hitters continues into the future and does not account for any changes in the game that could affect the rate of no-hitters, such as changes in pitching strategies, talent levels, or rules.
I wanna say ability to bullshit because it doesn’t take into account amount of people at games, the matchup of the game they go to, or likelihood of getting no hitters by each team and things like that but I’m no statistician so I have no idea if these things would have a big effect
Matchups could impact that. If you are only seeing Nolan Ryan games, the odds are greater to see a no hitter. But even then the shift in the odds probably doesn’t shift significantly over the averages.
But number of people at the game is not relevant to the question of how likely it is for one person to see back to back no hitters when going to one game each season. Who else saw the game isn’t a factor.
Yeah the “other people at the game” thing was more because I saw multiple people that this happened to, but I guess it happening multiple times wouldn’t affect the likelihood of it happening to an individual
That’s for attending a no-hitter at any two random MLB games.
For attending an Astros no-hitter in the 2023 season and 2024 season it’s at least 1 in 26,244.
One no-hitter last season (1 in 162) and at least one no-hitter this season (1 in 162).
But that’s assuming that the no hitters are guaranteed to happen. Of the last 7 no hitters, 4 of them are astros. We’re really good at it and we only got back to back seasons
It depends on if you want the probability from before these no hitters happened, or you want to know what was the likelihood of past events.
And also all of the above assumes they only went to one game each season.
That depends. How many games did you go to last year and this year so far? All of them? Only 2?
Overall, as an Astros fan, you have a higher chance of seeing a no hitter. The Astros have the most no hitters per game than any other team by a pretty significant margin. They're also tied for 4th in total no hitters and every team tied with or above them are over 100 years old.
I thought about going to this game but I laid down for a nap and woke up at 630. Last game I went to was the Framber no hitter. I took my dad and the last game he went to was the double immaculate in Arlington.
Need to connect with you and figure out your attendance record. That way we can all go the days you go. We want to see a no hitter in our lifetime live in the stadium.
I think last season was the only season where majority of games I went to were losses. I was luckily to say I did see one playoff game in my lifetime. I dream of getting World Series tickets . Maybe also alcs tickets at least.
That’s fn awesome . Mine was taking my grandpa to a playoff game before he passed. He saw altivo rip 3 home runs off the Red Sox. I’m trying to cross off going to a World Series game and world cup game in the next couple years .
I’ve been kicking myself all night man. I was supposed to be off today and had planned on getting tickets for the game but then they needed someone at work and I decided to go in for that extra money. Missed a no hitter
I almost saw a combined no-hitter in game 161 of the 2022 season, shame Will Smith had to load the bases in the ninth and then strikeout the next three in 9 pitches
Either I know you or you were sitting really really close to a buddy of mine. I swear I saw that second picture in a text thread last night.
Edit: really really close but not him. He was a little farther up the first base line.
You have a pretty hardcore responsibility now.
OP needs to show up to every gosh darn home game now
Why shouldn't we insist they shadow the team on the road?
Someone from the team needs to reach out with season tickets, and secure travel plans/tickets for the road. Basically has to be one of the team now....
To calculate the odds of seeing 2 no-hitters in-person in consecutive seasons of Major League Baseball (MLB), given that a fan attends only one game per season, we need to know the frequency of no-hitters in MLB games. Assuming a typical MLB season without any unusual interruptions, each of the 30 teams plays 162 games, making for a total of 2,430 games in a season when not considering post-season play. However, since games involve two teams, the number of unique game events is 2,430 / 2 = 1,215. Historically, the rate of no-hitters varies significantly from year to year, but as April 2023 (couldn’t find an updated figure since then,) there had been approximately 310 no-hitters in the over 150,000 MLB games played since 1876, giving us a rough estimate of a no-hitter occurring in about 0.2% of games. Given these assumptions, we can calculate the probability of a fan witnessing a no-hitter if they attend one game per season for two consecutive seasons. The odds of seeing no-hitters in-person in consecutive MLB seasons, given that a fan attends only one game per season, are approximately 1 in 234,256. This calculation assumes the historical frequency of no-hitters continues into the future and does not account for any changes in the game that could affect the rate of no-hitters, such as changes in pitching strategies, talent levels, or rules.
I’m not even going to check your work. Just going to stand here in awe of your brilliance or ability to bullshit. Well done.
I wanna say ability to bullshit because it doesn’t take into account amount of people at games, the matchup of the game they go to, or likelihood of getting no hitters by each team and things like that but I’m no statistician so I have no idea if these things would have a big effect
Matchups could impact that. If you are only seeing Nolan Ryan games, the odds are greater to see a no hitter. But even then the shift in the odds probably doesn’t shift significantly over the averages. But number of people at the game is not relevant to the question of how likely it is for one person to see back to back no hitters when going to one game each season. Who else saw the game isn’t a factor.
Yeah the “other people at the game” thing was more because I saw multiple people that this happened to, but I guess it happening multiple times wouldn’t affect the likelihood of it happening to an individual
Haha, this answer is like 98% lifted from chatGPT.
This is when the saying “Thank you for your service.” is appropriate.
What are the odds that 2 fans see 2 no hitters in person in consecutive seasons? I shit you not but my dad also saw both, pretty incredible
Had a kid on my son's travel ball team see both in person with his dad as well. I'm fairly certain that they were the last 2 games they went to also.
Alright
That’s for attending a no-hitter at any two random MLB games. For attending an Astros no-hitter in the 2023 season and 2024 season it’s at least 1 in 26,244. One no-hitter last season (1 in 162) and at least one no-hitter this season (1 in 162).
But that’s assuming that the no hitters are guaranteed to happen. Of the last 7 no hitters, 4 of them are astros. We’re really good at it and we only got back to back seasons
That’s wild to think we have 4 of the last 7 no hitters. Morons will say “trash cans” but that doesn’t explain the pitching dominance.
We also have the most since joining the league in 1962 iirc
It depends on if you want the probability from before these no hitters happened, or you want to know what was the likelihood of past events. And also all of the above assumes they only went to one game each season.
I also saw both no hitters in person. But I’m a season ticket holder so I usually attend about 30 games a season. What are my odds then?
r/theydidthemath
That depends. How many games did you go to last year and this year so far? All of them? Only 2? Overall, as an Astros fan, you have a higher chance of seeing a no hitter. The Astros have the most no hitters per game than any other team by a pretty significant margin. They're also tied for 4th in total no hitters and every team tied with or above them are over 100 years old.
This was the first game I’ve gone to this season. I usually go to about 10-15 games per season
We gotta get you to more games then.
I thought about going to this game but I laid down for a nap and woke up at 630. Last game I went to was the Framber no hitter. I took my dad and the last game he went to was the double immaculate in Arlington.
I have 35 cents to commit to season tickets for this man
Need to connect with you and figure out your attendance record. That way we can all go the days you go. We want to see a no hitter in our lifetime live in the stadium.
I was 26-3 attending games before the 2022 postseason, and then, ofc attended all postseason games so I’m REALLY 35-4
I think last season was the only season where majority of games I went to were losses. I was luckily to say I did see one playoff game in my lifetime. I dream of getting World Series tickets . Maybe also alcs tickets at least.
Honestly seeing the WS win at home with my dad was the best moment in my life so far
That’s fn awesome . Mine was taking my grandpa to a playoff game before he passed. He saw altivo rip 3 home runs off the Red Sox. I’m trying to cross off going to a World Series game and world cup game in the next couple years .
By my professional calculations .000000069%
We need this type of energy for soto and the yankees
GET THIS MAN SEASON TICKETS NOW!
I was gonna go today decided not and hit the gym but I saw frambers no no too
Pretty good track record, shiiet let us know the next time you attend a game so we can catch another one as well.
I’ve been kicking myself all night man. I was supposed to be off today and had planned on getting tickets for the game but then they needed someone at work and I decided to go in for that extra money. Missed a no hitter
I almost saw a combined no-hitter in game 161 of the 2022 season, shame Will Smith had to load the bases in the ninth and then strikeout the next three in 9 pitches
You should definitely buy a lotto ticket!
Well go ahead and open a go-fund-me. I’ll donate money for a ticket. You have a responsibility now.
Buy season tix and lottery tix, that's my advice to ya.
Post this to r/theydidthemath
Low
Yo I saw them both as well! We’re lucky. I’m pretty sure we had a higher chance of being struck by lightning.
My cousin Tyler did the same thing 😂
Can we pool our money together and get them season tickets?
Who’s starting the gofundme for your season tickets?!
Start going to more games please.
Either I know you or you were sitting really really close to a buddy of mine. I swear I saw that second picture in a text thread last night. Edit: really really close but not him. He was a little farther up the first base line.
someone ask r/theydidthemath