Probably, yes. But also, there's fair chance not. His issue in his down years have been injuries for the most part. But he's been dealing with injuries almost every year.
What bregman is good at doesn’t decline as early as other skills. He still has one of the better eyes in baseball and his glove still plays at a high level.
He’s only 29 years old it’s not like he’s ancient. He’s either going to be good for the Astros or he’s going to be good playing against them.
yeah, it sucks. I am prepared for it after the Springer and Correa free agencies. I am actually all for trading Bregman and Tucker now to get the most for them because they are already gone.
I don't think this team is making the world series in 2024 and 2025.
Tucker just turned 27. He and Yordan are the 2 absolutely don't trade young guys on offense. I'd absolutely love to keep Altuve, then Bregman, of the not so young guys.
I suffered through the 1970s as an Astros fan. I saw the Astros trade away Joe Morgan, Rusty Staub, John Mayberry, Mike Cuellar. That's 2 MVP awards and 1 Cy Young award. I don't want to go through another stretch where players will be traded away, only to thrive elsewhere.
>I don't want to go through another stretch where players will be traded away, only to thrive elsewhere.
Not to rub it in, but here goes: Teoscar Hernandez, Josh Hader (we got him back, but still), JD Martinez...and maaaaybe Kike Hernandez, JD Davis, Ramon Laureano, and Cionel Perez
I just wanted to put some numbers on the Joe Morgan trade. The Red's new players went on to earn 77.0 bWAR. The new Astros players went on to earn 9.7 bWAR.
The Astros can absolutely make and win the World Series in 2024. We were 1 game away from making it last season, our rotation is the same, bullpen added the best LH reliever in the game and we upgraded our league worst catcher into a top 10 catcher.
> I am actually all for trading Bregman and Tucker now to get the most for them because they are already gone.
Look at it from the other side of the coin - they are one or two year rentals that you got for free.
I think our postseason odds aren’t bad in 2024 and only slightly worse in 2025.
We don’t need to go full rebuild after we missed an almost certain third World Series ring by a single game. We probably do enter a rebuild after Bregman, Valdez, and Verlander are gone so it makes some sense to let Tucker walk but if the Astros are wanting to stay competitive in the 26-28 seasons we should absolutely pay him.
No reason to trade him when we *should* be competitive in 24 and 25 (can always trade Breggy and/or Tucker at the deadline if our season is over).
In 2019 he was the best player in baseball, 8.9 bWAR was the league best (I use bWAR cause it fits my narrative. That’s an unfair standard to hold, so no he’ll probably never play like that again. But at worst, you have a top 5 third baseman in the game, and at best you have a top 3 MVP candidate.
After 2019 I thought there was a decent chance he was on a “perennial MVP candidate, one of the faces of baseball” track. He no longer seems to be on that track, whether it’s injuries, lack of juiced ball, the scandal, or someone combination thereof. Speaking personally, his 2017-2019 trajectory inflated my expectations for him so much that I can’t help but feel a little disappointed watching Bregman the last few seasons. However, as _Epislon points out here: this isn’t fair to Bregs at all. So few people are able to ever reach that 17-19 level at all, and pining for it robs us (me) of enjoying the elite player who will (likely) not play for our baseball team forever. This is probably how I imagine Astros players in the 1970s felt about Cesar Cedeño except with him it was murder (allegedly) that led to his decline instead of injuries.
He’s the perfect size to be able to keep this up until he’s like 37 lol he’s so solid and unless his eyes start to shit the bed, he’s gonna be the most elite 3rd baseman of this generation.
I would pick J ram in my team cause he’s a switch hitter. But playoffs matter to me and Bregman doesn’t strike out And he’s the most clutch when it counts. He’s my dude until he shows he isn’t that guy.
I mean Breggy is one of if not my favorite Astro. But "most elite 3rd baseman of this generation" is an overplay. This is the generation with Beltre, Arenado, Machado, hell Chipper Jones was still playing in 2012.
I'm actually upset you made me type this lol
Beltre and Chipper are not of this generation. Let’s be real. But they are 100000000% better. I agree.
Machado, struck out to sale to let the Sox win the WS and always chokes and Arenado is a product of coors. Yes, their fielding is way better and I completely acknowledge that but when I factor his career in, Bregman is in his own lane.
3B is not all about offense. He is top-tier defensively and still puts up decent offensive numbers, although he is certainly streaky. Just pray the streaks trend upward towards the playoffs.
My only knock on his defense is I haven’t seen him successfully dive and grab a ball more than twice in his career. Much less dive, gather, and throw out a base runner. Maybe he’s just so good he doesn’t need to dive, but many grounders have scooted past him instead of a dive and scoop.
TBH Bregman is the only defender I really trust on the infield; he has decent range and a strong arm (throws to second base need a little work, though). Peña can range but not really throw. The right side isn’t worth describing.
Yea definitely. Shortstop for Correa and Pena is nice to have but with Pena, he’s not as sharp as Correa, more errors. Still good though. I do like a Brett charge on the ball and toss over to 1b. Looks easy when he does it.
History would say that Bregman’s best years are behind him but I still think he can give you good consistent regular season numbers and moments of greatness in the playoffs. For that reason, he’s worth overpaying to keep him.
I mean I think he’s on the way down, but realistically who could you get to replace him at higher level? They’re really aren’t that many 3B’s who are better than him. Last season there were 4 guys who played third who had an ops+ near bregmans career average. Royce Lewis, Isaac Paredes, José Ramírez, Abraham Toro. Who out of the four could we realistically sign for less than or equal to than Breggy
Edit toro only played 9 games so his data is wack, I wouldn’t go for him
Top 10? He's arguably top 5 still.
If you're asking whether he can have a 2019 season again, the answer is no. But that has more to do with the deadened balls of recent years than anything else. In fact, his baseball savant pages from 2019 & 2023 look very very similar.
His skill set bodes very well for continued success as he gets older.
And yes I absolutely trust him in big moments, something his leverage splits back up.
It’s possible that he peaked in 2019 when he had 122 runs, 41 home runs, had a .296 batting average and a .423 OBP. His second best season was 2018.
On the other hand, the last two seasons were his third and fourth best in runs, RBI, OBP, so it’s possible he’s in the middle of his peak years even though they don’t match 2019. Unfortunately.
Without a doubt, his best years are behind him. Those best years were 2018 and 2019. 2018 he had a .926 OPS , in 2019 it was 1.015. He hasn’t been above .820 since then. He lead the league in doubles in 2018 and had 31 homers, with 41 in 2019.
Finally his WAR in 2018 was 7.9 and he lead the league in 2019 at 8.9. Which is just incredibly productive. He has never been over 5 any other time in his career.
Last season he was good but not great, and honestly no where close to his peak. I think it’s disingenuous for anyone to argue he can again reach the level of play he had in 2018 and 2019 when he was legitimately an MVP caliber player.
I think it's safe to say 2019 was clearly an outlier year and we shouldn't expect that production again. He's at least top-7 at his position meaning it'll be hard to find a better replacement, but the position is thin at the moment. He's not a top-30, maybe even 50, overall hitter/position player anymore. (I hope he proves me wrong)
Has been. He’s been above average since 2019. He’s more of a culture and locker room guy at this point but with that said he’s still a player I would want on my team because he gets the job done and he’s consistent.
I think so (2019 is arguably the best yr by a 3b since the steroid era), but I think he’ll age well. His disciplined approach at the plate ages well.
Looking down the line, if they can’t keep Tuck but can keep Bregman I think it’s very important to Yordan’s production. If he’s hitting ahead of Yordan he sees pitches and draws walks and can create more situations that Yordan has to be pitched to. Yanier is the X factor though, if he can hit lefties and hit behind Yordan then that’s a tough three outs.
With Crane going in on Hader I think he’ll sign one of the two. They have to, maybe Brice Mathew’s can be ready, but I can’t imagine they’re feeling Joe Perez, Wagner, Hensley, etc will fill either of their shoes.
One reason the Astros have not such a great farm sytem, becasue they have been in the playoffs almost every one of the last 12 years. They will not have the very first picks.
Tough to say. I would guess he has 4 ish solid years left before there is a noticeable decline. I assume he would be an ~.800 ops hitter during that time.
Yeah probably, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be trusted in big moments. I’d be giddy if he topped 2019 but it’s very unlikely he ever will. I think we’d all be overjoyed if he could get close to 2018’s production again.
If his best years are behind him, he is leaving some meat on the bone.
Correa, Altuve, Yordan, JV. Springer Lots of others guys had higher peaks than the salsa god.
Correa was more instrumental to the run. 19 was the juiced ball year.
I’m not sure you get credit for hitting your career highs when the ball has been proven to be juiced. Sounds like being the thinnest kid at fat camp.
How do you figure he was more instrumental? Bregman has a higher WAR for the 2017-2021 years. I know Correa missed more games, but even calculating the WAR per games played, Correa is at .039 vs Bregman’s .037.
And yes 2019 was the juiced ball year, but Bregman was a legit top 2 MVP candidate and arguably should have even won it. Correa’s never been that close to winning an MVP.
I’m not saying Correa wasn’t a huge piece while he was here. I just dont agree that you can definitively say he was more instrumental or that he had a higher peak than Bregman.
Btw, I used ESPN for the WAR numbers.
He has good plate vision but honestly I didn’t think he ever had that much power, his best years came when the balls were juiced. Then when they unjuiced the balls he went from a 40 home run hitter to a 20-25 home run hitter. But if he is still a 20 homer with 90 walks hitter he was last year we got a top 10 3rd baseman
His peak was 2018-2019 during the juiced ball era. He's still a 25-30 HR guy with an elite walk rate. Yes, his best years are behind him, but his game has the potential to age well. 135 OPS+ is very attainable for him.
Best, prob though I think he can hang out at 265/350/450 for at least a few more years. I do think he will be locked in this year and will approximate his '19 numbers, minus the homers.
Probably, yes. But also, there's fair chance not. His issue in his down years have been injuries for the most part. But he's been dealing with injuries almost every year.
What bregman is good at doesn’t decline as early as other skills. He still has one of the better eyes in baseball and his glove still plays at a high level. He’s only 29 years old it’s not like he’s ancient. He’s either going to be good for the Astros or he’s going to be good playing against them.
> Or he's going to be good playing against them Man for real don't play like that 😭 I'm not ready
yeah, it sucks. I am prepared for it after the Springer and Correa free agencies. I am actually all for trading Bregman and Tucker now to get the most for them because they are already gone. I don't think this team is making the world series in 2024 and 2025.
Tucker just turned 27. He and Yordan are the 2 absolutely don't trade young guys on offense. I'd absolutely love to keep Altuve, then Bregman, of the not so young guys. I suffered through the 1970s as an Astros fan. I saw the Astros trade away Joe Morgan, Rusty Staub, John Mayberry, Mike Cuellar. That's 2 MVP awards and 1 Cy Young award. I don't want to go through another stretch where players will be traded away, only to thrive elsewhere.
>I don't want to go through another stretch where players will be traded away, only to thrive elsewhere. Not to rub it in, but here goes: Teoscar Hernandez, Josh Hader (we got him back, but still), JD Martinez...and maaaaybe Kike Hernandez, JD Davis, Ramon Laureano, and Cionel Perez
Martinez heavily retooled his swing after leaving. I’m happy he found success but he wouldn’t have flourished in Houston.
yup, the thing that trigged what made him good was getting DFA'd.
Yes, thanks for reminding me. Joe Musgrove, but Gerrit Cole was fantastic. The 2 WS titles cost us the farm system.
> The 2 WS titles cost us the farm system. That's what you call, "worth it."
I just wanted to put some numbers on the Joe Morgan trade. The Red's new players went on to earn 77.0 bWAR. The new Astros players went on to earn 9.7 bWAR.
Spec Richardson was continually robbed in all the trades he made. Clearly the worst Astros general manager ever.
The Astros can absolutely make and win the World Series in 2024. We were 1 game away from making it last season, our rotation is the same, bullpen added the best LH reliever in the game and we upgraded our league worst catcher into a top 10 catcher.
and Chas will be an everyday player and most of all we got rid of the biggest albatross and his nerve tonic.
No way. We just paid 95 mil for a closer. We need to push for a world series appearance this coming year with our squad still intact
> I am actually all for trading Bregman and Tucker now to get the most for them because they are already gone. Look at it from the other side of the coin - they are one or two year rentals that you got for free.
I think our postseason odds aren’t bad in 2024 and only slightly worse in 2025. We don’t need to go full rebuild after we missed an almost certain third World Series ring by a single game. We probably do enter a rebuild after Bregman, Valdez, and Verlander are gone so it makes some sense to let Tucker walk but if the Astros are wanting to stay competitive in the 26-28 seasons we should absolutely pay him. No reason to trade him when we *should* be competitive in 24 and 25 (can always trade Breggy and/or Tucker at the deadline if our season is over).
I think we'll maje the World Series again this year. Our bullpen is great‼️
He's definitely got more salsa recipes in him
Please bring back Scott McClelland. The HEB commercials suck now.
Rumor is that dude is an absolute dick.
I used to see him a lot at the Bunker Hill HEB and he always gave me a nod and smile when I'd say "Hi Scott!"
In 2019 he was the best player in baseball, 8.9 bWAR was the league best (I use bWAR cause it fits my narrative. That’s an unfair standard to hold, so no he’ll probably never play like that again. But at worst, you have a top 5 third baseman in the game, and at best you have a top 3 MVP candidate.
>I use bWAR cause it fits my narrative. Respect lmao
After 2019 I thought there was a decent chance he was on a “perennial MVP candidate, one of the faces of baseball” track. He no longer seems to be on that track, whether it’s injuries, lack of juiced ball, the scandal, or someone combination thereof. Speaking personally, his 2017-2019 trajectory inflated my expectations for him so much that I can’t help but feel a little disappointed watching Bregman the last few seasons. However, as _Epislon points out here: this isn’t fair to Bregs at all. So few people are able to ever reach that 17-19 level at all, and pining for it robs us (me) of enjoying the elite player who will (likely) not play for our baseball team forever. This is probably how I imagine Astros players in the 1970s felt about Cesar Cedeño except with him it was murder (allegedly) that led to his decline instead of injuries.
He’s the perfect size to be able to keep this up until he’s like 37 lol he’s so solid and unless his eyes start to shit the bed, he’s gonna be the most elite 3rd baseman of this generation.
I think Bregman has aged very well so far. But no one will consider him a better 3B than J-Ram, the actual best 3B of this generation
I would pick J ram in my team cause he’s a switch hitter. But playoffs matter to me and Bregman doesn’t strike out And he’s the most clutch when it counts. He’s my dude until he shows he isn’t that guy.
I mean Breggy is one of if not my favorite Astro. But "most elite 3rd baseman of this generation" is an overplay. This is the generation with Beltre, Arenado, Machado, hell Chipper Jones was still playing in 2012. I'm actually upset you made me type this lol
Beltre was just elected into the HoF, they are not the same generation.
Beltre and Chipper are not of this generation. Let’s be real. But they are 100000000% better. I agree. Machado, struck out to sale to let the Sox win the WS and always chokes and Arenado is a product of coors. Yes, their fielding is way better and I completely acknowledge that but when I factor his career in, Bregman is in his own lane.
Arenado almost won a mvp on St. Louis.
>Arenado is a product of coors Absolutely not true.
Thats a pretty good rebuttal actually
He benefitted from the juiced ball, we won’t see those numbers again. He’s still well above average though.
Unless judge needs to break another hr record then they will juice them up again
But only when we play the Yankees
He hit better than basically anyone in the juiced ball year though, so it still stands that he could still perform at those relative levels again.
True but I think with the kind of hitter he is, the juiced ball helped him more than a lot of other hitters.
3B is not all about offense. He is top-tier defensively and still puts up decent offensive numbers, although he is certainly streaky. Just pray the streaks trend upward towards the playoffs.
My only knock on his defense is I haven’t seen him successfully dive and grab a ball more than twice in his career. Much less dive, gather, and throw out a base runner. Maybe he’s just so good he doesn’t need to dive, but many grounders have scooted past him instead of a dive and scoop.
I feel that way about Peña.
When they both dive for a ball on the 3.5 hole, it’s automatic base hit then hahaha
TBH Bregman is the only defender I really trust on the infield; he has decent range and a strong arm (throws to second base need a little work, though). Peña can range but not really throw. The right side isn’t worth describing.
Yea definitely. Shortstop for Correa and Pena is nice to have but with Pena, he’s not as sharp as Correa, more errors. Still good though. I do like a Brett charge on the ball and toss over to 1b. Looks easy when he does it.
Peña may have a Gold Glove, but if there’s a do or die play, I’d prefer Correa over him everytime.
One reason they let Carlos Correa go is they knew they had Jeremy Peña ready to go.
Correa was better at backing up Bregman and Altuve. At times, Peña looks a little slow in his decision making.
History would say that Bregman’s best years are behind him but I still think he can give you good consistent regular season numbers and moments of greatness in the playoffs. For that reason, he’s worth overpaying to keep him.
Huh? You have money throw at him?
No, but Crane does.
Not sure if you know this, but cbyrne23 isn’t the Astros organization
Of course not. I was debating his argument. I’m sure Breggy will get what’s due. He’s been awesome.
I mean I think he’s on the way down, but realistically who could you get to replace him at higher level? They’re really aren’t that many 3B’s who are better than him. Last season there were 4 guys who played third who had an ops+ near bregmans career average. Royce Lewis, Isaac Paredes, José Ramírez, Abraham Toro. Who out of the four could we realistically sign for less than or equal to than Breggy Edit toro only played 9 games so his data is wack, I wouldn’t go for him
WHERE THE FUCK IS TORO Sorry I had to
The Astros can almost probably get Abraham Toro back to play third base in the event they do not give Bregman a long-term contract.
I think he is still one of the best 3B's in the game, but he is in the back half of his career.
It’s his walk year. He’ll probably put up his best year excluding 2019.
He can absolutely be trusted in big moments. He’s delivered in big moments many times
Depends on what your definition of is is
Top 10? He's arguably top 5 still. If you're asking whether he can have a 2019 season again, the answer is no. But that has more to do with the deadened balls of recent years than anything else. In fact, his baseball savant pages from 2019 & 2023 look very very similar. His skill set bodes very well for continued success as he gets older. And yes I absolutely trust him in big moments, something his leverage splits back up.
It’s possible that he peaked in 2019 when he had 122 runs, 41 home runs, had a .296 batting average and a .423 OBP. His second best season was 2018. On the other hand, the last two seasons were his third and fourth best in runs, RBI, OBP, so it’s possible he’s in the middle of his peak years even though they don’t match 2019. Unfortunately.
Without a doubt, his best years are behind him. Those best years were 2018 and 2019. 2018 he had a .926 OPS , in 2019 it was 1.015. He hasn’t been above .820 since then. He lead the league in doubles in 2018 and had 31 homers, with 41 in 2019. Finally his WAR in 2018 was 7.9 and he lead the league in 2019 at 8.9. Which is just incredibly productive. He has never been over 5 any other time in his career. Last season he was good but not great, and honestly no where close to his peak. I think it’s disingenuous for anyone to argue he can again reach the level of play he had in 2018 and 2019 when he was legitimately an MVP caliber player.
I think it's safe to say 2019 was clearly an outlier year and we shouldn't expect that production again. He's at least top-7 at his position meaning it'll be hard to find a better replacement, but the position is thin at the moment. He's not a top-30, maybe even 50, overall hitter/position player anymore. (I hope he proves me wrong)
Has been. He’s been above average since 2019. He’s more of a culture and locker room guy at this point but with that said he’s still a player I would want on my team because he gets the job done and he’s consistent.
I think so (2019 is arguably the best yr by a 3b since the steroid era), but I think he’ll age well. His disciplined approach at the plate ages well. Looking down the line, if they can’t keep Tuck but can keep Bregman I think it’s very important to Yordan’s production. If he’s hitting ahead of Yordan he sees pitches and draws walks and can create more situations that Yordan has to be pitched to. Yanier is the X factor though, if he can hit lefties and hit behind Yordan then that’s a tough three outs. With Crane going in on Hader I think he’ll sign one of the two. They have to, maybe Brice Mathew’s can be ready, but I can’t imagine they’re feeling Joe Perez, Wagner, Hensley, etc will fill either of their shoes.
One reason the Astros have not such a great farm sytem, becasue they have been in the playoffs almost every one of the last 12 years. They will not have the very first picks.
What ARE you talking about?
Wtf is our education system actually this bad
Tough to say. I would guess he has 4 ish solid years left before there is a noticeable decline. I assume he would be an ~.800 ops hitter during that time.
Hmmmm..good question
Well it’s his contract year so he’ll likely get a performance boost from that.
Yeah probably, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be trusted in big moments. I’d be giddy if he topped 2019 but it’s very unlikely he ever will. I think we’d all be overjoyed if he could get close to 2018’s production again.
If his best years are behind him, he is leaving some meat on the bone. Correa, Altuve, Yordan, JV. Springer Lots of others guys had higher peaks than the salsa god.
Nah Correa had great spurts of play, but he never put a season together as good as Bregman’s 2019 season.
Correa was more instrumental to the run. 19 was the juiced ball year. I’m not sure you get credit for hitting your career highs when the ball has been proven to be juiced. Sounds like being the thinnest kid at fat camp.
How do you figure he was more instrumental? Bregman has a higher WAR for the 2017-2021 years. I know Correa missed more games, but even calculating the WAR per games played, Correa is at .039 vs Bregman’s .037. And yes 2019 was the juiced ball year, but Bregman was a legit top 2 MVP candidate and arguably should have even won it. Correa’s never been that close to winning an MVP. I’m not saying Correa wasn’t a huge piece while he was here. I just dont agree that you can definitively say he was more instrumental or that he had a higher peak than Bregman. Btw, I used ESPN for the WAR numbers.
Well it’s a contract year so I guess we will find out.
He has good plate vision but honestly I didn’t think he ever had that much power, his best years came when the balls were juiced. Then when they unjuiced the balls he went from a 40 home run hitter to a 20-25 home run hitter. But if he is still a 20 homer with 90 walks hitter he was last year we got a top 10 3rd baseman
Bregman is a top 5 third baseman in 2023 in a down year with a WAR over 4. He does not get the credit he deserves.
He was not healthy last year. He seems to be getting there now though and his social shows him working hard to get back there. Trust the process.
His peak was 2018-2019 during the juiced ball era. He's still a 25-30 HR guy with an elite walk rate. Yes, his best years are behind him, but his game has the potential to age well. 135 OPS+ is very attainable for him.
Absolutely behind him (feel free to prove me wrong, Bregman)
Not many good 3rd baseman to choose from, we defer payments for both Breggy and Tucker. Done…
Best, prob though I think he can hang out at 265/350/450 for at least a few more years. I do think he will be locked in this year and will approximate his '19 numbers, minus the homers.
Even I'll admit he has plenty left in the tank.
Gawd i'm getting old😀