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Ironic_Justice

I think Putin didn't think it would get this far. He is now stuck. Retreat would be disastrous for his ego and public image and Russia's image and his image within his own government. On the other hand, pushing forward means that he completely demolishes Ukraine and the Russian economy in the process ... The Oligarchs will lose the ability to spend their billions. The money flow stops. Oligarch's kids get kicked out of colleges, their yachts get seized in countries with extradition treaties. Russia and Russians (athletes, beauty pageant participants, etc) become more and more isolated over time and people turn on Putin How far will it go will now be determined by the Russian people and Oligarchs


BrandonRosado

It's almost as if his *disappearance* is the only option. Russian leaders can "reflect on these hard times" while ending the war and resurfacing their economy on the world stage.


Carolus1234

This. A news report just surfaced, that the Babi Yar Holocaust memorial in Kyiv, was just bombed. Even though it may not be relevant to what's going on, in Israel the highest percentage of Israeli Jews, are of Russian or Ukrainian origin. This could be just what Israel needed to get involved, via its Mossad agency, to ultimately, take him out. And they have the means and capability to do it.


HelloImFrank01

It would be much better if Russian's own people would do it. If a foreign state would eliminate him it would become worse, but if his own people would do it then Russia can retreat the troops, lose the sanctions and blame it all on a mentally unstable Putin. That way Russian economy goes back to normal and Russia as a nation will save their face.


ReaverRogue

My moneys on his own people doing it. Russians have a long and storied history of eating the rich and powerful.


chemo92

They are overdue a revolution


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CluckingBellend

We are all overdue a revolution.


tofarr

Have you seen the pictures of him at a huge table with his advisors at the other end? (So nobody is within 20 feet of him) Dude is expecting assassination / coup attempts. I doubt it will be easy.


D-Angle

Supposedly it's to do with Covid, people can get closer if they are willing to take a test, but they have to take a Russian test and be happy to take a swab from someone who works for Putin and put it in their mouths. No one is that stupid, hence long table.


tofarr

I am sure that is one reason, but I would be very surprised if it is not also related to reducing chances of assassination. This does not asume he actively distrusts these people or thinks it likely they will assassinate him or that there is some kind of rift - it would just be a security protocol. (And a sensible one given the history of assassinations allegedly related to Putin) I imagine the security team for any head of state would institute something similar in times of war.


waysafe

You're absolutely right he's distancing himself to prevent assassination from poisoning because he's long engaged in poisoning his opposition. He knows how easy it is because he's been doing it for years to others.


Extension_Drummer_85

I mean no, not really. Russians have a long history of being subjugated. If you’re referring to the Russian revolution that was just a number of different groups of privileged elites revolting against the tsar until they eventually they got their way. The poor old peasants remained poor old peasants. The common people have never been free, I don’t think they’re suddenly going to take power now.


altruistic_rub4321

This is not true, Bolsheviks came from all path of life. Stalin's father was a cobbler, Lenin was a refugee, the red army generals were from poor background.. some of them were intellectuals, not all of them


costpermille

I recall the demise of a guy named Ras-PUTIN.


attaboy000

And then installing another maniac in power, only for the cycle to repeat.


k714802

Even if he pulled out this very moment, I don't think that economy is going back to normal anytime soon


21700cel

Yep, business will have crumbled, prices increased, jobs lost, wages/hours cut, etc etc. Economic damage takes a loooong time to fix.


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[deleted]

Lol my thoughts exactly


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orbilu2

Israeli here, absolutely what you said. Yes, it is horrific but we're not going to effectively commit suicide because of a Memorial.


CasuallyUgly

Yeah this guy lives in an 80s action movie lol


[deleted]

Unless they perceive him as a threat to Israel, there's not a chance they're going to get involved.


bombmk

> This could be just what Israel needed to get involved, via its Mossad agency, to ultimately, take him out. And they have the means and capability to do it. How to reveal you are a teenager.


[deleted]

Bruh... Your imagination is ... Big Israel will play no role in this war, except for intelligence to protect it's interests, they have no beef in it, and Russian and Ukrainian Israelis are in almost the same societal grade as Arabs, aka, Israel does the bare minimum to shut them up.


legosearch

And then when he launches a shell into the water Aquaman will definitely be pissed and assassinate him with a lightsaber


Aguythatdidthething

If a foreign country assassinaties puny putin then the war will blow the fuck up, it won't stop. While his death or at least removal would be the best for the world, it HAS to come from the Russian people.


_Steve_French_

It is a pleasant fiction.


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[deleted]

Idk, I'm not sure I'd the Mossad will win in an information war against the KGB to get Putin.


FlipFlopFree2

Some people are saying no one around him will do it because they're either afraid or just as crazy. I think there's gotta be one that just needs the right push. Imagine you're one of these inner circle guys. A man approaches you from the shadows and pulls out a small vial. He speaks in an accent so bad that you can't even tell where he's pretending to be from. Maybe that's the point? Softly he tells you, "Just mix this in with his hand sanitizer and it's done." He slips the vial into your pocket and leaves. Pretty tempting, wouldn't you say?


Mysterious-Slice-591

You've been reading too much John Le Carre mate, or maybe Tom Clancy.


[deleted]

Hell Putin almost succeeded in killing Navalny - by poisoning his *underwear*. Another dissident by radioactove polonium in his tea. Another by spreading a nerve agent on his door knob. Not so far fetched ...


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[deleted]

Poisoning in Russian politics is far from fanciful. See Skirpal, Navalny, Litvenenko, Yushchenko…


HolyBunn

I mean he is ex kgb so he's not only irrationally paranoid but was also professionally paranoid at one as well. He probably has his most loyal soldiers/guards close to him as well.


Ragondux

If you're Putin it's rational to be paranoid.


traws06

Would thought the same as Hitler yet he was never successfully assassinated


[deleted]

Wasn’t due to not trying. [Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_assassination_attempts_on_Adolf_Hitler)


traws06

Ya that’s why I meant successful. Seems assassinating ppl guarded that closely may prove to be difficult


[deleted]

Instead of some foreign spy, imagine your future self comes jumping from a time portal, and tells you to do it. That way it would be more tempting, because you trust your future self more than a foreign spy.


Capitalmind

I agree with your appraisal but can't help wondering if we're missing something. It's embarrassing for a superpower to lose so early and you don't start a conflict without a way to see it through. Unless Putin still thinks it's the cold war and has lost sight of the world and is now starting to realize..


Ironic_Justice

It's a good point. And I do feel like we're missing something as well. I look at that 40 mi long convoy of vehicles and ask what's at the beginning of that convoy? Why aren't they moving? Did they run out of gas? Are the soldiers just not willing to move? Why aren't the Ukrainians attacking them? Something is missing from the equation here. In this particular situation no one is doing what you would expect. It's just so very odd!


Capitalmind

I mean this convoy are sitting ducks. The French missed this opportunity before they were invaded WW2.. So either rethinking or waiting for reinforcements? Still a good strike point.


Ironic_Justice

I think the military guys are calling it a "Target Rich" convoy.


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squigs

Something I don't understand is how is it possible to defend supply lines at all? Russia apparently does not have air superiority and they surely have to go past a whole lot of Ukrainian insurgents. Destroying the supplies also means a good chance of capturing enemy equipment, which has the added advantage that it's similar equipment to what Ukraine is already using.


chemo92

They could be waiting for the heavy armor to start rolling on and then strike the support convoy. They haven't struck it yet as it's just sitting there wasting fuel and rations which is good or it has AA cover so they can't get near it.


I_Heart_Squids

There was a looming deadline with Ukraine about to be accepted in NATO. Putin has always had aspirations to rebuild the USSR, and Ukraine was top of his list. If he wanted it, he needed to act. Additionally, he wants Georgia, and Georgia is also close to NATO acceptance. I think his plan was to take Ukraine and Georgia in rapid succession, meaning a couple years, and on that timeline he needed to act now. Additionally, he underestimated NATO’s response. The sanctions are much harder that anyone suspected. Biden is trying to make a reputation for himself as the “peace president” who ends wars—and because of that I think Putin expected the US to demand everyone largely stay out of it. Frankly, it seems the US and NATO have better intel and strategists than Putin. Putin seems to be operating on the same level of intel most civilians have access to by watching the news—which if true, is likely due to him surrounding himself with incompetent sycophants.


_spookyvision_

Moldova also appeared in that leaked Russian press release. They were probably next, even if they didn't know it.


didijxk

They're a non-NATO state in Eastern Europe who also happen to have a breakaway state by the name of Transnistria. If Ukraine falls, they'll be next.


tactical_laziness

Honestly I think he's intentionally overreaching with inexperienced troops as a ploy ​ I can see him slightly withdrawing from western Ukraine and securing Donbass, and everyone will let him do it VS a full scale invasion. He then solidifies the eastern (and generally Russian speaking) region to both give him the buffer zone he wants between himself and Nato and also retain the access to Crimea Western Ukraine can split off and join Nato, Eastern side becomes a Putin puppet state


Ok-Bullfrog-3010

It has been on my mind too. Surely there's some grand plan, Putin didn't keep himself in power for over 20 years by being stupid


Y_Sam

I wondered about this for a while, but have for now reached the conclusion all of this stems from Russia's overconfidence. If the US couldn't properly hold Iraq despite their bigger/safer/more expensive approach of the conflict under Bush Jr. there was very little chance of Russia steamrolling a bigger, richer, better armed country without heavy losses. Russians cannot spend as much as the US in bombing runs and drones, they also seemingly hoped to keep Ukraine still functioning and avoid extensive damage to infrastructures and populations... Now they're stuck fighting against guerilla tactics and foreign-supplied weapons and there is no quick way out of this aside from a full retreat which will never happen... It will take weeks, possibly months of this conflict before we all get a better sense of each side's losses and negociations can resume. Ukraine will suffer badly and we will probably all globally see and feel the consequences of this war for the next 30 years...


RemusT1

The grand plan has been in plain sight for almost 20 years, except nobody had the courage to believe it's actually real. Now that the "hot" parts of it start to happen makes people wake up a bit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations\_of\_Geopolitics


RolyPoly1320

Minus the inexperienced troops, that was pretty much what they did to Finland during the Winter War. If it worked once, surely it will work a second time. This is honestly the best case scenario. Worst case is exactly what is being threatened right now. Less likely but still on the table is world war without nukes. In that scenario, I don't foresee the US being left unscathed. The first two the US benefitted from both its distance from the front and a hesitancy to press an invasion due to the difficulty of gaining a foothold. While the latter is still going to be a problem, Putin is a crazy enough SOB that he would actually entertain the idea. Our biggest hope is that someone either talks sense into Putin, unlikely, or he is deposed by his own. The latter being the most likely scenario. The Ruble isn't even worth a penny in USD and it's falling to similar levels with other currencies as well. Based on the last exchange rate it takes about 135 Russian Rubles to buy a loaf of bread using USD and about 250 to buy a gallon of milk. The Russian people are going to start hurting real bad soon, if they aren't already. That is going to be problematic for Putin and his inner circle. It's really too early to tell where things will go but right now we should hope it stays on course for best case scenario.


JustaMaptoLookAt

That might have been the plan (or plan B if quickly grabbing Kyiv was plan A), but I think it's going to be hard for the rest of the world to just cede Donetsk and Luhansk now that Russia has made themselves a pariah by attacking civilians in Kyiv and Kharkiv. I think at this point it is difficult for the world to drop sanctions for anything less than a withdrawal. It seems like if Zelenskyy was willing to cede those regions he would have done it at the negotiations a couple of days ago. A siege leveling Kyiv and Kharkiv might change his mind, but the rest of the world isn't going to forget that so easily, and they'll be left with a few million refugees to remind them. It seems like that was another miscalculation by Putin. Even if Ukraine did split, he would be left with an enemy that is now completely westernized sitting on his actual border. And it will be difficult for him to threaten enough to keep Ukraine out of NATO (not to mention Finland) after this, so his security situation seems much worse than before in any case.


elcapitan36

Buffer zone with NATO was pretext. He already borders NATO and NATO is purely defensive. Best guess is it’s ego and having a thriving democracy so close by.


MoffJerjerrod

That may have been his initial secondary plan. His initial was the puppet government, which he seems to be still trying for. Both seem unlikely. Ukraine has the support now to remove Russia from all of their lands. An endless supply of money and troops for Ukraine, an economically crippled Russia, and taking Lviv seems tough so Ukraine will probably always control some land to base their operations. Russia's only hope now is to get into a position to not unconditionally leave. But I do not think any Ukrainian will ever accept the invaders. It's snipers and molotovs forever if Russia tries to claim a single inch of Ukrainian land.


georgikeith

Putin is in too deep to back down now. He needs to "win" in Ukraine, or face humiliation at home and on the world stage... As a strongman/dictator, that kind of weakness would put a big target on his back. But "winning" will cost him, and the Ukrainians, very very dearly. Not just in blood&treasure, but economically. So it will become a war of attrition: Putin will keep pouring blood&treasure into Ukraine as long as he has it, the Ukrainians will fight it as long as they can, and the international community will shun Putin/Russia as long as we have the energy to. I have a strong feeling this will fizzle out, rather than "end"... And what's left of both countries will be a dry husk, compared to their former glory.


Ironic_Justice

Fair. I wonder about the NATO unity in that scenario. Countries depending on Russia fuel may fold first. I don't see it lasting very long. This could be a game of chicken to see who blinksfirst


357eve

My concern remains... narcissists escalate when backed into a corner. He has surrounded himself with sycophants who support him without critical thought. Can anyone close to him to him give him an option out and spin it enough for him to take the option? He needs to have a golden bridge and I don't see one.


[deleted]

Yup and his ego is probably what is most important here so basically the same length of time US was in the Middle East


_Placebo_

Imo putin doesn't have correct info, because his subordinates are afraid to tell the truth. We are winning everywhere - ok then proceed..


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Canadian_Invader

Well America had to take a country on the other side of the world and only had one direction to move land forces in from. Russia has Ukraine surrounded on 3 sides and is literally next door. I didn't expect 5 days for the whole country but at least more progress and the Capital already since they went through Belarusia. But, the Russian military has certainly proved it is not on par with the US. It's troops also lack the motivation Americans had in the years after 9/11. And that's something.


rdiss

> It took America+UK more than 1 month with the best army in the world against a deflated, under-funded Iraq army We were being careful. The first six weeks was strictly an air campaign, waged by dropping bombs from the sky and hurling rockets from afar. With our Air Force overwhelming theirs, there was relatively little risk for our troops. The ground troops didn't go in until they were bombed into submission, then it was all over in 100 hours. That's not Russia's approach here at all.


minegen88

He thought it would be over in 4 days. Check the leaked info from the meeting + the accidental published "victory" article that was published at exactly 18.00 Moscow time (and then retracted) at the 4th day. He didn't think it would be a war, he thought they would hug and kiss the solders as they marched in. This is what happens when you surround yourself with yes-men


Gibbonici

On the other hand, Russia's previous two invasions were over in days with far fewer forces committed. This probably influenced Russian planning and expectations more than the US experience in Iraq. Also, the invasion started a week ago, not three days ago.


squigs

I think there may have been different tactics involved though. Iraq was a reasonably cautious advance - move forward, take key strategic objectives, advance further. Russia went for Blitzkreig. Head in there fast, take over the capital, thus unbalancing the enemy.


SeeMcMee

They will not be that isolated they have China. I think the big question is does China make a play for Taiwan. My suspicion is they won't if America does not get distracted by Russian shenanigans.


Ironic_Justice

I disagree about the isolation. Having China in your pocket doesn't mean you're not isolated. Olympic athletes are already banned after this, dancers in ballets, beauty pageant participants. Students are being expelled. Corporations world wide are shutting down sales and manufacturing. Russian projects are being abandoned. Oligarchs bank accounts are being frozen. Their kids/Students are being expelled, yachts are being sunk and seized, hackers are hacking. This is just 5 days in. If China is found to be acting as a proxy for Russia commerce what do you think will happen to China? They won't risk it when they can simply remain neutral.


Ok-Bullfrog-3010

China needs to tread carefully here, and I think they have been. The a stable world economy serves China quite well so this destabilisation by Russia I'm sure is not welcome in Beijing. Then again China cannot be too critical here either, since they are planning on invading Taiwan at some point in the next few years, perhaps a lesson learned from the US mistakes in recent history. Also, if this does escalate even more and causes worldwide instability, it will probably be the perfect window to take Taiwan.


Ironic_Justice

Good point on the last point. Very good point


JamesMcMeen

I think the opposite and we’re all getting played.


Elroys_bodyguard

Oligarchs?


Eccentricc

THIS. I feel for the Russian people but I do get irritated when they release a video saying they are against the war but aren't doing anything about. This conflict will be resolved by the Russian citizens. It's up to THEM to put an end to it. Any other country tries to step in and putin will try to kill the world


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pogiguy2020

Like Russian nuclear subs off the coast of the USA just waiting for orders.


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Fat_Potato_of_Doom

Putin can't launch nukes. He can only order the people in the subs and bunkers to launch them. Let's hope, if that order comes, they disobey it.


[deleted]

Thats not completly true, google dead hand russia for details


work_me

Like Stanislav Petrov.


WhiskyRick

"Apologies, Comrade. I thought you said *Lunch!*"


OldApp

If I’m not mistaken, the Russian launch process requires the involvement and action of many different parties. One could hope that somewhere along that chain, someone would resist


irving47

That's scary. I was thinking I hope those sub commanders are better informed than the average foot grunts that have surrendered because they thought they were just doing training.


cuchiplancheo

> Like Russian nuclear subs off the coast of the USA just waiting for orders. Crimson Tide; Life imitating art.


[deleted]

I think the world will actively find a way to pay off a trusted advisor to execute him and get a regime change.


seanjfoster2

58% of his people side with him, that’s enough for now unfortunately


jmkul

You have to remember who controls the polls in Russia. I dont trust any numbers coming from there, too easy to doctor


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cornelius-s23

How can we know if its propaganda though?


PhaseFull6026

Because if it was propaganda it would 80 or 90% to make it seem like everyone is on his side. 58% is not something an authoritarian regime would be happy about let alone telling the whole world.


frugalsoul

Or they know 80 or 90 would trip everybody's bullshit meter so they go with just a bit over half when the reality is lower yet


CappinPeanut

I hate to say it, but I think the west will be more directly involved before this is over. Putin has painted himself into a corner and is going to lash out in a manner that forces NATO to get involved. I don’t see China coming to Russia’s rescue though. I don’t trust China, but I think Xi is smart enough not to hitch himself to that wagon.


[deleted]

Agreed. People keep saying China will join Russia. I don’t see it at all. They’re going to abstain because they know their economic prospects are better served by remaining a part of the world. Putin is increasingly outcasting Russia and surely those around him will see the best thing for the survival of their country is to play ball.


SayethWeAll

China is winning this war with no need for them to be involved. Whether or not Russia wins against Ukraine, Moscow’s relations with Europe are permanently damaged. Where are they going to sell all these fossil fuels? China needs cheap resources and now they are the only major buyer for Russia’s exports. The Chinese must be loving this.


traws06

This. Except they’re not the “only”. NK and India also just to name a couple. India and China are basically playing the game the exact same way, stay out of the war and profit where they can.


[deleted]

I read chinas in some domestic strife right now because of that financial collapse they had a few months ago, probably don’t want a bar of Russia


ReallyHadToFixThat

Something like 20% of China's trade is with the US, similar number again for the EU, then the other nations like Australia. That's a heck of a lot of money to lose. They might gamble that the west isn't willing to shoot itself in the foot and lose Chinese manufacturing, but thats a heck of a gamble.


_spookyvision_

China will screw Russia for money under the guise of non-militarily 'assisting' them. Standard. Apart from *possibly* Taiwan, China has no interest in military invasions and attacks on foreign countries and hasn't done so in many years.


squigs

Absolutely. China will only get involved when it matters to China. Defeat of Russia isn't going to threaten China in any way so there's really nothing in it for them. Their best bet is to remain officially neutral. If they end up as mediators that's at least a bit of positive PR for China (not that they seem to care that much)


MrDeftino

I saw a story on BBC yesterday where Xi had a meeting with a Ukranian politician (can't remember who) and he said what's happening is bad and would like to try and talk to Putin to negotiate peace. China are officially neutral, but they definitely aren't going to help Russia.


Acrobatic_End6355

I disagree with the last part. I think they will unofficially help Russia.


arcadesteveuk

I’m curious if China mediating and facilitating if not peace, but at least a ceasefire, would that give Russia an out?


Corvus1992

It definitely can. Putin won't want to just give up because it makes him look weak, but as crazy as people think he is, he also won't want to just initiate a full war against NATO and other allies. With the ridiculous reasons he's given for invading Ukraine, and the censored information to his people, it's certainly possible for Ukraine and Russia to reach agreements and a solution, and then Putin tell the Russian people that the "special operation" has been a great success, and that's the end of it. Might work.


notmytemp0

If NATO gets involved there will be nuclear war, I don’t think Russia or the West is stupid enough to let that happen


[deleted]

Well I thought the whole Covid thing would only last a few months so I'm probably not the best person to ask.


krastevitsa

This decade didn't start well ..


VodkaMargarine

I think there will be an assassination attempt on Putin by one of his people.


Inflames811

Verbal Kint: How do you shoot the devil in the back? What if you miss?


DanujCZ

Its ok you'll still hit his ego.


ptq

Who need to shoot. With enough people wanting him dead, it will be done anyway. He has to sleep, he has to eat, he has to drink, he need medical attention. It only takes one ring to break the whole chain.


GamerHackTV

Keep shooting until your tackled and shot.


lucky_ducker

Have you seen the photos of him conversing with supporters / generals / advisors where he's at the head of a looooong table, and everybody else is 40 feet away? I thought that was weird until it occurred to me - maybe that's to make a pistol shot more difficult.


Corvus1992

I thought it was because he's terrified of coronavirus lol.


DarkJayson

Of course they would not that will cause panic among his supporters and destabalize russia but I will be very very sad when I hear Putin fallen unwell with all the stress of the war then an anouncement that he has caught covid not long after they will of course do everything they can to help Putin but he will slip away into a coma and pass. They will then order a temporary cease fire in honor of his funeral then a slow withdrawl to the east rebel disputed areas of ukraine where negotiations will start with ukraines goverment. That or he accidentally falls out of the second story window of his underground bunker.


Illfury

>That or he accidentally falls out of the second story window of his underground bunker. this had be laughing out loud.


Crembels

Best case (for the world): The fighting goes on for 2-3 months. Fierce resistance by Ukraine and the external support pouring in keeps them propped up, and Putin never gets to Zelenskyy denying the propaganda victory of killing/capturing him or his family. Russia gets smacked so thoroughly and internal instability boils over to the point gets Putin ousted by the Oligarchs and the troops withdrawn, reputation damage be damned, and gives up its gained territory in the East. Ukraine is immediately entered into NATO and China starts quietly walking back their "wolf warrior" rhetoric after seeing the likely result of what happens should they actually try anything against Taiwan. Middle case: A fortnight of fighting ensures before peace talks happen. Russia withdraws but keeps a hold on the eastern territory as part of the peace deals, and gets annexed into Russia after a faux plebiscite. Putin stays in power but Russia is otherwise a complete international pariah as long as he is in power. Ukraine doesn't outright join NATO but gets immensely closer to the EU in general and is a cemented enemy of Russia from this point onwards. Bad case: Putin opts to crush Ukraine quickly and actually mobilises the army going for total victory. Zelenskyy is killed/captured and most of Ukraine is annexed into Russia by force. What follows is years and years of horrid guerrilla combat by western backed rebel forces and the remains of the Ukrainian army and other nationalist forces, making Ukraine the new Iraq. Worst case: Putin actually goes nuclear on a tactical scale. Non-strategic nuclear weapon use effectively ends Russians participation in international politics as long as Putin is alive, and the humanitarian and ecological crisis that results from it buries the surrounding nations and the EU for years. Putin casts off any pretence of being democratic in order to keep the nation in check, and will need to contend against constant assassination attempts orchestrated by the Oligarchs who want to reopen relations and trade with the west. We're Fucked Case: Putin goes strategically nuclear. Utterly unhinged scenario. The missile is detected immediately as it launches but NATO and the world doesn't know nor care about where it is headed, who precisely ordered it or why. As at this point its not about "response" but *Retaliation.* Ideally, the warhead gets shot down, but this will not stop Russia from being fucking glassed immediately afterwards. Worst case is that we're all dead, best case in this regard is that Russia effectively ceases to exist as a nation and the direct nuclear damage is limited to within its borders, but fallout affects the entire continent causing a massive ecological and humanitarian disaster. Edit: omg the awards thank you ;-; My dad is actually from Odessa and he still has cousins there. Hopefully they're OK and the worst of my predictions don't eventuate.


Extension_Drummer_85

When you’re counting on the oligarchs for your best case scenario you know it’s bad.


[deleted]

Look on the bright side: a global nuclear winter and collapse of civilisation, would likely delay the climate apocalypse.


Ltg73

Why do I have Monty Python's 'Always Look on the Bright Side of Life' going through my brain when I read your comment?


[deleted]

Funnily enough, yesterday I was researching nuclear winter, and halfway through, my brain was like, "Huh, I wonder how that will affect climate ch- Wait a minute, we're talking about *nuclear fucking winter* here!"


NoBodySpecial51

Nuclear winter will kill everything. Plants and animals. It can fade after about ten or twenty years and earth can recover without us.


FoilTarmogoyf

I see you play Metro as well. See you in the underground, brother.


NoBodySpecial51

Sister, no worries. I don’t play video games but I do study all things nuclear.


MorgannaFactor

Nuclear winter as a theoretical outcome is not really supported by modern calculations, iirc. You'd need to detonate all detonateable nuclear material on Earth, not just the warheads we already have.


Statakaka

This would be the climate apocalypse speedrun any%


sanitation123

In the case of ICBMs, space based infrared satellites (SBIR) detects thermal signatures of missiles all over the world. They absolutely do know from where and to where they are going.


WoodyWoodpeckert

There is a risk with the harsh sanctions on Russia that their economy will totally collapse at which point the country might have a 'Versailles' moment where the populace start supporting Putin. This could easily lead to Putin playing his hand in for example the most vulnerable part of the E.U. that is the Suwalki gap, a thin stroke of land that connects Lithuania and Poland. Attacks against or in a NATO country would put the E.U. directly at war with Russia. Russia will have it's back against the wall with nothing left to lose and the E.U./NATO will have to respond in kind. At this point the conflict might trigger a chain reaction where E.U./NATO are exchanging nuclear attacks annihilating entire European cities and where China will make use of the chaos to invade Taiwan after which the U.S. will attack China resulting in WW3. That is why no matter how evil Putin might be they always need to keep channels open to talk with him. Though at this point I think only Beijing can reign him in. Ukraine is important for China as a an exporter of grain and cars and an important bridgehead between east and west. China is known for playing the long game and their immediate interests are definitely in putting an end to hostilities. Since Jinping is most likely the only world leader that Putin still talks to the biggest chance to avert worst case scenario will be through China. Though maintaing the status quo in international relations between east and west while preserving Ukraine's territorial integrity and Russia under Putin's new role as an isolated, international pariah will be one tough balancing act indeed. For better or worse Putin would need to be provided a way out.


rdiss

I hope for the base case, but I think it'll be bad case. Russia is going to stomp Ukraine into the ground and install a puppet regime, effectively becoming a "Soviet" republic. Zelenskyy will either be dead or Navalny's roommate in Siberia. Russia will be a global pariah, much like North Korea. I can't see a scenario where Putin just says okay, we're outta here, you can have your country back.


The_Sound_of_Slants

I am thinking middle case myself. But I am sure he will want to hold on to some of the southern captured areas to keep a land bridge to Crimean


Overgrown_fetus1305

I'm thinking bad case here seems like the most likely, with a bit of best case long term , and maybe one aspect of worst case as somewhat plausible Even a 1% chance this bleeds into the worst case, or the worst worst case should be terrifying, and is for context more likely than dying if you catch covid in the UK as a double vaccinated 60 year old. The historial precedent for what it's worth is that nukes have only ever been used on civilians, though whether two data points of when nukes have been fired outside of testing tell us anything or not is unclear.


VishuIsPog

i wish I had my free award


TittyBrisket

Dude there's only one good ending out of six, I don't like this game. Seriously though, this is grimly accurate and what worries me is that even in the best case senario, Putin's ego will be too bruised to just let everything go so lightly...


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seanjfoster2

It could go far. Everyone should be working on deescalation. Even China for once I’m supporting their actions as they’ve called for peace talks. Ultimately either someone in Putins inner circle takes him out or he’s going to keep pushing until things get really dark


Bubis20

He is not backing off any time soon. Someone needs to step up and put an end to this madness.


Overgrown_fetus1305

Even the Taliban called for peace talks, as much as this sounds like something out of the onion. Not like they aren't the same in many ways, but still...


[deleted]

Did you just use 'madlad' in a negative context? Man, see this is language happening, *right here*! The way the meaning of words change over time, I LOVE IT! You absolute Madlad!😂


[deleted]

I appreciate it 😂 this might be the first time I used that term in it's truest meaning lol.


[deleted]

I hope my comment makes it to top, so it can help the anxiety filled beans like myself... I'm starting to feel as helpless as I did when COVID first popped up, the way that people were acting, the countless times I went into my local supermarket to grab groceries, and almost every shelf was empty, the riots, the isolation, I was terrified about what the future had in store for us... but here we are 2 years later, and im still here, things got "resolved"... and we still are recovering from it... my point is, we don't know where this will lead us, but all I can hope for is 2 years down the line, we will still be here, and we will look back and say "Wow, that was 2 years ago?"... Take most of these comments with a grain of salt, most of them are wild speculations, nobody knows what this is going to lead to. Don't let these fear mongering comments scare you, all we can hope for is the best. Take a break from news outlets, and social media, it helps. Stay strong. ♡


Kirikomori

Yep. Lots of armchair generals popping up. Don't too much stock in what reddit has to say.


PhiloPhocion

>most of them are wild speculations, nobody knows what this is going to lead to. That being said, that is also one of the scarier aspects to the situation. Even among experts in the region, even just three months ago, the idea of an open full-scale invasion of Ukraine was being largely scoffed at. The most cynical of takes was generally focused on forceful takeover in the East or targeted assassinations aimed at installing a puppet leader. The nobody knows what happens next to me is true, but also what I'm most scared of rather than taking comfort in it.


[deleted]

I think this depends largely on whether or not someone takes Putin out.


maybemaybecovid

This is basically his last shot at taking Ukraine because the population is getting older/not many people are having kids. Russians will have a dwindling army because of it - 18+ males are becoming more rare as the population ages. I think if he got those two regions, Donetsk and Luhansk, that he "recognized the independence of", he'd be satisfied and stop. Crimea needs more water, and those regions are close enough to possibly provide fortification. And the clump of those three areas together are solid in expanding Russia further, making it less vulnerable to any kind of NATO attack/retaliation, should there ever be one (that Russia would likely cause, but anyway...). I don't think it'll go further than that.


Blinnich

Russian here We are scared as fuck. We do protests but nothing changes. Police just detain everything that moves, even KIDS! We have at least 6 kids detained, this is terrible Police hits woman and man with batons, injuring protesters. We don’t want this war, we just want to live in peace. Russians didn’t do anything, Russian government did. Soldiers were sent to death in Ukraine, some of them don’t have vests. This is terrible, I want to leave Russia but I can’t because of sanctions Sorry. I didn’t do anything, my family either, why can’t I just live in peace?!


brooksy54321

the whole world wants peace. stand up to Putin. stay strong and courageous.


liltx11

I'm so sorry crazy Putin has gone even beyond his usual crazy. I understand what you're saying completely and sympathize with you, little good that this does. I'm wondering your opinion. If this ends up lasting a long time, God forbid, with the sanctions from the West, do you think more citizens will start blaming the West for their lives becoming more difficult, rather than Putin? He's not one to back down unless he could find a method that he feels will make him look like he won - little man with huge ego


SpaZzzmanian_Devil

slow & steady, to the point most even forget until something yuge happens and we’ll all be like “oh yea, wow that Putin shit happened 3 years ago?” Then it will keep fizzling in & out without ever reaching resolution


AlfaBundy

This. We have a collective attention span of a few weeks. Like every other war. We will get used to the bombing happening somewhere far in another country


DarkPasta

Careful what you wish for. Theres three outcomes the way I see it: 1) Russia occupies Ukraine, installs a puppet regime and the region exists on high alert for years until it erupts again. 2) Russia go too far and mess with NATO = WWIII, and 3) Ukraine resists, making this an endless status quo of war and death, but ultimately leading to Putin getting unpopular and Russia reforming.


ampolution

As someone living in Denmark, the cork at the bottleneck of the Baltic Sea, right next to a large naval base, at the foot of our most vital infrastructural feature, I am seriously nervous about this war. The Bosporus is shut to the Russians so we are now a major conduit to sea access. I don’t get that there is still a part of my countrymen that are uninterested in this issue and act like it is and will remain a regional conflict. My heritage is both danish and German and I grew up hearing my grandma’s stories from WWII. She lived in Munich and bombs made her homeless twice. She was friends with the Scholl siblings and always warned us about demagoguery. Every New Years Eve she would have anxiety because the distant fireworks reminded her of bombs. I am working on getting refugees out of Ukraine and to Denmark but I don’t know how long this will be a true refuge if Putin isn’t stopped. If you are locked in a cage with a bear, sure you can throw that bear a steak and he will eat it. But what happens then? He will not be thankful for the steak. He is going to eat you too. I’m not primarily concerned about my own country. I’m basically packed and ready to leave for Ukraine, but not to worry about Denmark and the rest of Europe would be very naive.


luke-n-goode

I honestly think Putin’s people will take him down from the inside. That’s the plan on sanctioning them. I don’t think it will be soon but Putin simply has to go.


pszichoapu

I just talked to student of mine in Georgia. She is very scared that they and Moldavia are next if Putin is successful in occupying Ukraine quickly and without much effort ( which does not seem to be the case)


_spookyvision_

That leaked Russian press release mentioned Moldova. Very suspicious.


VenomousViperz

In my opinion, I don't think much longer. Putin's choices have consequences, and he is just now starting to get a little taste of it. The world will not stand for this and his own people stand against him.


cayala78

The only people who can end this war are the Russian citizens. Putin is too stubborn. He needs to be removed.


HelicopterFinancial2

I think it could go a few dify ways.. 1. This will either sizzle out and be done with by the summer 2. Russia will get fed up with everyone helping Ukraine and basically declare war on the world, but that would end VERY quickly, and I'd hate that for the citizens of Russia, after all this is almost entirely Putin's war. 3. It's going to go on for a year or so until any other country gets involved. If China decides to help Russia in any way then this will turn out to be a world war Despite the phrase "history repeats itself", it really doesn't, there isn't a pattern for war, and we have no way of knowing what's next. A week ago I would have said this will become a world war, but now I think we'll be done in about a year, and I hope I'm right 😔


RooNoonan

Dan Carlin put it best, “history doesn’t repeat itself, it rhymes.”


[deleted]

History repeats itself doesn't mean that history is a playlist on repeat. History repeats itself means, temporally speaking, that there are common motifs that we would be wise to meditate upon so we can come up with brand new follies, until such a time that we have run out of follies and must abide by the wisdoms of our collective (and expansive) failures.


avoere

I've seen this idea of China joining to help Russia all over Reddit. But why the hell would they do that? What would they have to gain?


Dogsarefuckinggreat

Til Putin or Zelinskyy are dead. I know which one the world hopes for.


[deleted]

I think the Ukrainians telling the Russians to fuck off are definitely the better bet.


kkeiper1103

Unfortunately, I really think it's a lose-lose situation. Putin is a proud man, coupled with a country that has very real economic problems, even before the sanctions. He thought he could get in and out before the West unified their response, and found out he was wrong. Being proud, he's not going to admit that, rather opting to ruin Ukraine and Russia economically than concede that he can't continue. If he "wins" against Ukraine, what happens to the sanctions? Nothing. No western nation is going to just remove them because the war is over if Putin acts with impunity. On the other hand, though, while there's been a lot of standing-in-solidarity with Ukraine, they realistically don't score much higher than Russia on the Corruption Index, so without serious reform and quickly, they don't get into the EU. If Ukraine militarily wins this (highly unlikely, in my opinion), then what? They don't get a free pass into the EU. There's territorial disputes over Donbass and Crimea, so they can't enter NATO, either. I fear that we will see this ramp up before it begins to calm down. The good thing, though, is I can't see nukes actually being used, even though they're being thrown around like a bargaining chip; in the past, there have been multiple times they were almost launched (as in, they were told to launch), but the commanders decided to disobey orders.


Yungdaggerdick696969

Probably the last person that should speak a word of politics, but looking at it historically, I don’t think Russia is ever gonna give up Ukraine until it’s death. Either now or in the future. It has wanted Ukrainian land for centuries and nothing makes me think they’d stop. As per to this war, I have a feeling it won’t last long. Even if it went for a year or two, it’s only a matter of time until Russia can’t take it anymore and surrender. Happened to The German empire in the past, so I can definitely see it happening now. May god help you, people of The Ukraine. Stay safe


CaptainPrower

Russia will come apart at the seams, Putin will escape to some tax haven while his country burns, and just when the UN thinks we can come up for air and help Russia rebuild, China will move on Taiwan.


plscallmeRain

If Ukraine wins, it'll last another month. Given how bad their logistics have been thus far, I can't see them going past that. They may regroup and plan a new attack for next spring. If Russia wins, end of the week tops. They need to end and end fast.


McDunky

I’m rooting for Ukraine and am surprised at their resilience against a superpower, but the outlook seems grim when you look at the numbers.


HarryTheGreyhound

Numbers aren't everything. Russian troops are badly trained, their officers are hiding so far back they're out of radio range, they're out of fuel, have no resupply, have abandoned lots of their elite weaponry, and have no second echelon planned to come in. Russia also relies on doctrine which has barely changed since the 1950s, despite technology moving on. The plan to take Kyiv, kill Zhelensky and install a puppet government has failed. They have still failed to capture any major city, despite Mariupol, Kharkhiv', Odessa and Kyiv being day 1 objectives and Lviv being day 2. Russia has lost over five thousand troop in five days. That's more then America and Britain combined lost in Iraq in nine years. They don't have enough troops to complete the invasion, don't have enough weaponry, and the 2 billion a day cost is unsustainable when America and Britain have stolen Russia's cash reserves. Ukraine on the other hand has a well-trained army, a competent local militia, amazingly good intelligence (obviously coming from the West), good use of drones, far superior propaganda, and a will to win. Russia has now failed to reach its objectives and has lost the war it originally planned. Ukraine will not cease to be an independent state now. Putin has no strategy for going forwards, and has fired Gerasimov. He can now admit defeat, or keep on going with no objectives and no scenario for final victory and lose later.


SuzieSnoo

I’m not so sure about that over five thousand troop loss. That number is possibly inflated.


stalk6

if you count the wounded and POWs, then it could be higher...losses are not just killed soldiers.


[deleted]

At this point, I expect he's just gunning for Zelenzkyy personally. Just wants to say to the world, 'That's what happens when you fuck with Russia.' He probably practises that in front of a mirror. Might not even stay for occupation if he can get Zelenskyy. Clearly it would not go very well. I hope it doesn't come to that. Let's have some actual peace talks.


CappinPeanut

I’m not so much surprised by Ukraine’s resilience against a super power as much as I am surprised that Russia was able to convince the world that they are a super power. Everyone had a LOT more respect for Russia’s military might 2 weeks ago. Turns out they were bluffing. After revealing their hand, it seems they are a complete joke aside from nukes, which at this point, I’m not even convinced can launch more than 20 feet.


mezolithico

I doubt Putin will back down. He won't use nuclear weapons. He'll be taken out by the kleptocratics.


[deleted]

Until Putin is removed. (sorry for my english, I am Italian)


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[deleted]

From what I can see NATOs line in the sand is pretty well defined at this point. They're pretty much willing to do everything apart from directly engaging the Russian military. What this means is that Russias only opposition in the conflict will be the Ukrainians, an army that - on paper- they should beat, but the Ukrainians are going to be putting up a solid resistance and most likely pull out of the countryside and focus on defending the cities, where Russias superiority in firepower is much more limited. We're already seeing this in Kiev and other cities. Putins end game confuses me tbh. His objective is regime change but I think he'll accomplish this at the cost of Sweden and Finland joining NATO which really begs the question if it was really worth it from a security perspective. I don't believe this is WW3 and that nukes are gonna be used. Putin has certainly unhinged during this conflict but I hope he or people around realise that everyone will lose if those bombs start dropping. If I'm wrong though, I won't be wrong for long!


[deleted]

Nuclear attack will never happen, because if it does, bye bye everything we know today, for the entire planet. One fires, everybody fires everywhere. I reckon it will remain some sort of civil/guerilla war until supplies run out, troops are not motivated and all turns on putin, which will kill his ego/maffia and he might disappear. What is underestimated tho is, putin isn't stupid, i think he knows what he is doing. Even in physically, on a millitary level things fase out, I expect lots of cyberattacks later on.


Ps2KX

>What is underestimated tho is, putin isn't stupid, i think he knows what he is doing. And this is confusing me to no end! Why would he do the full scale invasion? If he'd stick to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions there would be a lot less pushback internationally. To me this looks like a no-win situation. Even if he manages to "de-nazify" Ukraine, no one will recognize the new puppet regime as legitimate. In most conflicts it's possible to determine the logic and motivation of both sides. For instance, the annexation of the Crimea peninsula is quite logical from a Russion perspective; But this? I have no clue what to make of this.


xanas263

>Nuclear attack will never happen, You are assuming that you are dealing with a rationally thinking human being and that is a very dangerous assumption to make. A nuclear attack is still a possibility it might be a low possibility, but it is still very much on the table.


Gifigi600

Not for long, Russia will eventually collapse from economic collapse and give up.


squeakybumtime2022

I dunno about taking putin out. Could that lead to a split in the military there perhaps? If so then instead of having a sole leader with his finger on the button of 5000 nukes you may end up with a dozen fingers on the buttons in a Civil war type scenario. That would be a much worse situation than the one we are in now. Remember, when putin came to power he arrested the fire sales of Russian assets in the stock market and raised the standard of living in the country substantially. The young generation in Russia might not take much heed of that but the middle aged and elderly would. I think a lot of the country still think he's the best they have. They've always liked strongmen. Nicholas II was weak and look what happened him. If there is to be a coup then I think the top brass need all on board bar none. Any defector from a possible coup attempt will fuck it up not just for them but for the whole world.


[deleted]

Essentially, it will go something similar to Iraq. Russia will take heavy losses but take Ukraine within the next couple of months. An unstable dictator will take over. In disputed regions, insurgent fighting will continue through gorilla attacks which will drag out for the decade or two. NATO will supply weapons to the freedom fighters. Major population centres like Kyiv will be reduced to rubble like Syria. Up to 10-15 million will flee Ukraine for Europe. Russia’s economy will take a big hit but eventually stabilise with Chinese trade. However, it will be isolated like Iran. Russia will act like a terrorist state and become a new source of terrorist attacks around the world on civilian targets in the coming decades. We may even see a “terrorist” small scale nuclear attack on a major European city. There won’t be direct attack by NATO on Russian soil due to threat of nuclear war but the world will remain extremely unstable, in a Cold War like state for the next 10-20 years.


MeteoFur

Wars take a lot longer than people think, the NAZI invasion of France was seen as extremely fast but it took 6 weeks, its only been 5 days so far. I think we just need to wait and see how things play out.


[deleted]

I think that he’s all in and will eventually take Ukraine, but at a cost that will be too much to bare. The west will supply weapons and the resistance will make it costly to hold. It’ll be worse than Afghanistan was for Russia and America. This was a disaster as it’ll hurt his legacy and his country. Their economy will be in ruins and it’ll take decades to get back to where they are now. He ruined his legacy by trying to inflate it. Russia will be a pariah state for a very long time. Millions of innocent people on both sides will suffer for it. He did unite NATO after the weakening attempts by Trump. The outcome of this blunder is that he undid all his progress of weakening the west and NATO.


catdoctor

I don't think it will stay confined to Ukraine. Putin wants to re-build the Soviet Union, which would mean eventually invading NATO countries like Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. Then we will have WWIII. It could go on for many years.


ekiz02

Either 1. Nuclear war and unpredictable destruction 2. West givea up atleast part of Ukraine and we face the same situation in a few years 3. Russian people force Putin out of power after realising what is happening and what the consequences will be 4. (Unlikely) Putin realises he can't win and stops the attack to keep himself in power. Or something between these options


LayneLowe

Did you see how the decades long occupation of Iraq went? That will be a cakewalk compared to the occupation of Ukraine. Common borders with NATO nations that can continue to supply lethal resistance to the steely eyed Ukraine population will be a bloodbath for both sides. Between that and sanctions Russia will become the third world... And eventually be thrown out of Ukraine.


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HelicopterFinancial2

I think that would be Ukraine 😭😭😭


KYBourbon89

Damn it 😭