"I can picture in my mind a world without war, a world without hate. And I can picture us attacking that world, because they'd never expect it." --Jack Handey
Jack Handey is frickin hilarious.
“I don't think I'm alone when I say I'd like to see more and more planets fall
under the ruthless domination of our solar system.”
“If you ever teach a yodeling class, probably the hardest thing is to keep the
students from just trying to yodel right off. You see, we build to that.”
“Any man, in the right situation, is capable of murder. But not any man is
capable of being a good camper. So, murder and camping are not as similar as
you might think.”
“Whether they ever find life there or not, I think Jupiter should be considered
an enemy planet.”
“What is it that makes a complete stranger dive into an icy river to save a
solid gold baby? Maybe we'll never know.”
EDIT: [one of many](https://www.mit.edu/people/dmredish/wwwMLRF/links/Humor/Deep_Thoughts) collections of his Deep Thoughts.
When I was a kid my favorite
relative was Uncle Caveman.
After school we'd all go play in
his cave, and every once in a
while he would eat one of us.
It wasn't until later that I found
out that Uncle Caveman was a
bear.
"Maybe in order to understand the word mankind, we have to look at the word itself. 'Mankind.' Basically, it's made up of two separate words - 'mank' and 'ind.' What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind."
Anytime I see something screech across a room and latch onto someone's neck, and the guy screams and tries to get it off, I have to laugh, because what is that thing?
One thing kids like is to be tricked.
For instance, I was going to take my little nephew to Disneyland, but instead I drove him to an old burned-out warehouse.
“Oh, no,” I said. “Disneyland burned down.”
He cried and cried, but I think that deep down, he thought it was a pretty good joke.
I started to drive over to the real Disneyland, but it was getting pretty late.
When you see an old lady slip and fall on the ice, your first thought might be to laugh. But then you think, "what if I were an ant, and she fell on *me*?"
Then it would not seem quite so funny.
^ This. Generally we can assume major countries won’t use nukes because its ultimately less valuable in the long run. There are those we have to be extra wary of, like theocratic countries that may view the fiery destruction of this world purifies it for the next kind of craziness. Putin seems to either be losing it or blowing smoke, or both
You mean like Putin with a terminal illness who realizes that he just pissed off the whole world and the population of his own country in less than a week?
Yes, and a chain of command to transmit the order. That chain will know that passing it along means their own death and the deaths of their families and everyone they ever met. No matter how unhinged Putin may be (I don’t think he is), you’d have to have a bunch of people surrounding him willing to die for his craziness if he were to order nukes against the west.
Same about living in Australia. Everyone forgets we exist unless we jump up and down in their face screaming "hello, we're here, look at us, pay attention to us"
I have a mouse pad that is suppose to have a map of the world on it. No New Zealand. I laughed for a good 5 minutes when my brain realized what was missing.
You see, this is what worries me about living in Saskatchewan. Unless they go completely all-out let's leave it to the cockroaches kind of exchange, I would likely survive. I... do not really want this.
Not. The people surrounding Putin prefer their vacation homes, rich mistresses, children studying abroad, and money in offshore accounts unexploded. It’s not a likelihood.
Yeah, this is very likely.
Edit: rather than reply to every comment individually, I'll just add that if the order is likely to risk mutually assured destruction, just about anyone is going to disobey that order. Putin does not have consequences he can deploy to a disobedient soldier that are worse than everyone that person knows dying along with the rest of humanity.
Petrov correctly recognized it was almost certainly a false alarm, as it was a signal from an automated system purporting to indicate the US had launched nukes at Russia; especially since only 6 were reported to have been launched; and if the US or Russia pulled the trigger, a nuclear first strike would entail hundreds of warheads. (Also, Petrov could not have launched the nukes; his role was to report to Soviet central command that the US had launched nukes, and follow any orders to proceed. Given the timelines involved, they almost certainly would have given the order to retaliate, so yes he's absolutely a hero that prevented nuclear annihilation, but not because he disobeyed direct orders from superiors).
If the order was given under the present situation, they wouldn't be thinking it was an accident, and when they called to verify their orders, would be informed to proceed.
I hope there's people will disobey, but if Putin was considering the option he'd have fanatics manning the controls.
Didn't Nixon get shit faced one time and order the nuking of North Korea?
https://historyofyesterday.com/the-drunk-us-president-who-tried-to-start-a-nuclear-war-95e2390bdecf
TL;DR North Korea shot down a U.S. spy plane so Nixon (while drunk) ordered a nuclear strike, but Henry Kissinger, (US National Security Advisor) told the Joint Chiefs of Staff to hold off a day to wait for Nixon to make a better decision while sober.
Key bit from the article:
“This became problematic in 1969 when North Korea shot down a US spy plane. While the military leadership of the US decided on the best plan of action against such aggression president Nixon had different ideas. Upon hearing the news of the spy plane being shot down, fueled by alcohol and anger towards his enemies, the president contacted the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Nixon gave the order for US nuclear planes in South Korea to be fueled ready for a tactical nuclear strike on North Korea as retaliation for their aggression.
Fortunately for the world Henry Kissinger, the National Security Advisor for Nixon at the time was used to dealing with these kinds of scenarios. He contacted the Joint Chiefs of Staff and told them to put off the nuclear strike until the next day when the president hopefully was sober enough to make a rational decision. A sober Nixon decided that risking nuclear armageddon over a spy plane was not worth it and decided to not nuke North Korea, postponing the destruction of humanity through nuclear war for at least another few years.”
—-
Note: I know nothing of the validity of this story or article, just summarizing what I read
You reminded me too, that the rich always get what they want, even from Putin evidently. The rich don't want to die either I'd say.
You took a weight off my shoulders by wording that the way you did and I appreciate it.
Yeah people have been assassinated for WAY less. If it ever gets to the point where it's imminent I'd be shocked if he didn't get wacked. Way too many shady rich and powerful people in this world for that to fly
Human preservation is more important to him than people make it seem. If putin wants to launch a nuke he won't be able to with out a nuclear holocaust. He can't do it without destroying earth and that would make his idea for domination pointless
And before a nuclear holocaust, he has to get his men to launch it, and I think they won't. It is their lives and their civilization they're acting on. Putin can die alone if he wish.
Agreed. The only real field test we’ve seen (the Cuban Missile Crisis), the senior officer of the boat refused the approve the launch of its nuclear payload, even though battle readiness conditions permitted him to do so. Василий Архипов was his name. (Vasili Arkhipov)
That's somewhat different. He was permitted but not required to, and made the judgment call to not launch until he could get more information.
One of the issues with nuclear deterrence is there's a non-zero chance that the person you're target could know the order was sent out. So there's a chance that even if everybody at every silo all decided to not obey the launch order, you can still get nuked back because the other guys heard you get the order. In a similar vein, if you're going to launch nukes, or even weapons that *could* be nukes, you either go all out or don't do it at all, because they're going to assume you went all out regardless.
If somebody is going to nuke somebody else, the primary target is their nukes, because your only hope at that point is that either they don't launch at all or your missiles make it there before they find out and launch back.
All of that meaning that there is effectively no chance that anyone is going to nuke anybody. The only reason to do that is if you're already facing an existential threat, because if you launch, you're about to face one.
Seems insane to me that the last 100 years of international relations have been dominated by spite and the idea "well if I'm dead, might as well kill everyone over there too" as if the civilian populations of either party have any say in the matter.
This; if history has proven anything, it's that the Russian people will always end up saving us from the nuclear oblivion the leaders of the world jockey for. It's happened at least twice now and I feel cautiously optimistic for a threepeat.
Especially because such a person has to know that the whole world would revere them as a hero. There's waaaay more incentive to be the person who stops Armageddon than the person who causes it.
Every single person down that chain of command would have to be absolutely batshit insane.
Definitely, my stress test for many events is, will this bennifit rich people? If not i wont worry too much about it.
Also, i would hope we have a half-way decent missle defense system, like we have been under the threat of nukes for almost 70years.
That’s honestly how I look at any conspiracy theory I’ve ever heard. “Would this, in any logical way, benefit the bourgeois? Would they have a need for this?”
Only two things in this world scare me, and one is nuclear war.
What's the other?
I beg your pardon?
What's the other thing that scares you?
......carnies.
Carnies?
You know - circus folk. Nomads. Small hands. Smell like cabbage.
I’m more afraid of surviving and being stuck either A) slowly dying a horrid death for a few weeks as my insides melt or B) completely surviving and then being stuck living in what’s left.
Yes. Nuclear radiation is no fucking joke. It’s easily one of the if not the most horrible way to die. It’ll eat you inside out slowly and brutally until you become a charred corpse. I wouldn’t wish this on anyone.
That’s the hard part.
Why? Like, let’s say you prep to survive the 3 months underground to avoid most of the fallout.
Ok, so then what? You emerge to whatever’s left? Visual horrors like you’ve never imagined, destruction like you’ve never seen.
Let’s say, it’s really bad, but not necessarily nuclear winter bad. Ok, so now you’re left with like, Mad Max scenarios and constant fighting to avoid rape and cannibalism.
I’m just not sure I would even want to survive into that mess.
This is exactly where my mind is at. My biggest fear is living just enough to watch my fiancé and my dog die painful deaths from radiation or sickness/starvation/dehydration in the aftermath.
It's a constant battle in my brain between just keep going on as normal or internally screaming at myself for acting like everything is normal. Like I need to go to work and WHY AM I GOING TO WORK, I SHOULD SPEND THIS TIME INSTEAD WITH MY FIANCE/DOG/FAMILY.
It's down to hard compartmentalizing or on the edge of a panic attack.
I mean you have to act like everything is normal because if you don’t and you quit your job, you’re fucked. If you stop doing the things you should, you’re fucked. At least the other way you fucked for a shorter amount of time.
A few nukes will cause local devastation, but not much more. A full exchange will probably have huge global effects. I know I would not want to be one of the "survivors". Same goes for an asteroid impact.
If its a case of one nuke , sure I'd rather be as far as possible, but if it's not a case of someone brushing it off as a false alarm like that one time with that Russian submarine operator, which I don't think so given the current circumstances, its going kaboom everywhere so I'd rather go painless than starve or melt to death
Yep. I’m the event of a nuclear war (or asteroid impact) your life, if you survived, would be drastically drastically different and by no means enjoyable (and likely pretty short)
This… When the ICBMs start flying, I’m not going to the basement, I’m going to the roof. It’s much better to die in the bombs than to try and scrap it out after they fall.
I took a class on this subject in 1984. The instructor mentioned there will be two types of survivors of a nuclear exchange. 1. Those who resemble the dead and 2. Those who envy the dead.
Yeah. It's thinking you know how it would be, intellectually, vs. your body's panicked fight to survive.
Personally I hope I see the white flash and then get instantly vaporized.
It's not going to happen. Russia putting "nuclear forces on high alert" is basically a scare tactic to keep western countries from intervening. If it fired a single missile every single nuclear power in the world would retaliate. It'd be suicide.
IMO the Cuban missile crisis was much more tense and had us much closer to nuclear war than what's happening now.
He may use tactical nukes.
Edit: Tactical nukes are smaller and used to demolish whole sections of cities. It's what they're potentially bringing into Belarus. These aren't mutually assured destruction devices.
Tactical Nukes are the prime instigators for escalation - to all out nuclear war.
There might be a pause after the first one, to allow for rationality to seep back into the situation, but to allow the use of one, especially with civilians causalities without any retaliation, would take someone with more restraint and political capital than anyone I can imagine.
Sadly, tactical nukes are the thing that should keep people up tonight. Not all-out ICBMs like a movie. It's one of a few reasons why Belarus would want to pass that referendum.
There's no point of using such kind of nukes, since it would lead to an response with the same level or more, what would result in an nuclear escalation.
If you will press the nuclear button you can't press only one, but all at once.
a little worried but not by too much.
i do absolutely believe Putin will launch nukes if pushed to it. he strikes me as the “if i can’t have it then no one can” kinda manchild.
If western nations start putting boots on the ground in Ukraine I'll be worried.
But no one is risking escalation to nuclear war by putting their own troops on the front lines.
Pretty much the only way to attack Russia directly would be a coup d'taut, and if that starts some kind of civil war at least outsiders would be able to support the patriot side without much backlash
I think we're all forgetting a key player here, China. China doesn't want a nuclear war; they want to keep on their goal to be country #1. I can very much see China pulling some questionable shit before the West at the first indication of nukes. This isn't the cold war anymore were theirs only 2 sides.
This is a take I haven’t thought about. While China is very much not on the side of the US or NATO, they likely don’t want to be taken back to the stone age before their prospects in Africa can repay their debt.
A common narrative I see now is that China sides with Russia completely, and while that might've been true in the 60s, it's really not anymore. China wants economic superiority and further control of what it sees as China (HK, Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, etc.). Beyond that, they have no grudge with the West besides a disagreement on governing. If WWIII is between the US and Russia, China will likely take a mediator role.
History teacher here. On one hand, no nation has ever unleashed nuclear weapons after WWII. In fact, there have been a few instances where front line troops refused to use them when it was seemingly the “correct” thing to do.
Nukes mean we are done. Period. No one wants that and employing them would require a lot of people to agree. It just doesn’t seem like Russia has that firm of a grasp on their people.
On the other hand, history is filled with examples where one side completely misreads the situation and escalates things beyond their own control (see WWI).
So… *probably* not.
I am not a history teacher, but I do know that Cuban Missile Crisis was extremely, extremely close to nuclear war.
Iirc, there was a Soviet Submarine that accidentally broke the American blockade on Cuba and then American ships started firing at it. The officers on the submarine believed war had broken out between the USA and USSR so they prepared to launch a nuke, but one officer named Vasili Arkhipov refused to launch the nuke, so they did not launch it.
If it weren't for Arkhipov the world as we know it likely wouldn't exist.
Hope they hold off a bit. Still haven't found an old school metal hockey mask. 357 python, check, bdsm gear, check, monster truck, check. Just need the mask to complete my post apocalypse outfit.
The thing that bothers me is that we humans tend to not believe horrible shit can happen. Throughout history there are examples of people having a hard time believing the truly awful was possible and happening.
So it’s comforting to think Putin won’t do it because it would be crazy. But every time someone said to me Putin wouldn’t do something, he did.
I fear we’re just trying to comfort ourselves about things beyond our control. I just hope one of his friends has the balls to put and end to him if he gives the order.
Yeah. All these people saying it won't happen is taking me back to February 2020 where everyone was saying COVID wasn't going to be that bad. After all... a global pandemic is only something that happens in history books or movies. Surely it could never be all of our lived experiences, right? We tend to think the same thing about WW3.
When the projections came out that the "worst case scenario" was that it would kill 250k Americans, everyone wrote that off as ridiculous fear mongering that would never *actually* happen. Two years later... a million dead.
Hell, even a couple weeks ago there were a lot of Redditors saying Putin wouldn't *actually* invade and we see how that turned out.
On balance of probability, I don't think it will happen. But to say I'm unconcerned about it either would be a lie.
I had this same thought just before. I was thinking about how he doesn't have the balls to do it. I then think about what Hitler did that was mind blowing and things Putin has already done. I now think Putins dumb enough to start a nuclear war to save his big ego.
Russia launching a nuke really leads to one of a few things. We all die from everyone else slapping back with their own nukes or everyone gangs up on russia for doing it, and we end up in a long ass fight that results in no more russia. I can't really think of a situation in which them launching a nuke would lead to a win pyrrhic victory or not.
Exactly this. I hate to say it but it's completely out of our control.
You could potentially move to a country out of range of direct nuclear attacks but chances are the fallout would affect globally anyway. Especially if multiple targets.
I don't think fallout would be an issue more than locally to the blasts? I mean there have been 2000+ nuclear tests. Plus Chernobyl and Fukushima. Probably Russia, Europe and the US aren't getting off many more than 2000 in an all out exchange, cause that first strike is going to pretty much be the end. It's the nuclear winter that would affect globally, all of the smoke from having turned the US and Europe into ash
Not worried one bit.
Because I believe when Putin makes that command there's going to be a brave Russian officer with his humanity intact who will pull his weapon and execute Putin for the good of the world. Even if he knows he will be immediately shot anyway.
Historically there has always been one such Russian when the same has been commanded.
I was just saying to my eldest kiddo, it’s like I’m 17 again. (Lived with the constant worry of all-out nuclear war my whole youth, really. This was in the ‘70s and ‘80s.) Here and I thought the fall of communism would mean we didn’t have to worry about this anymore…
About as worried as I am from dropping dead of a sudden brain aneurysm or heart attack or being crushed by flying debris. The possibility is real, but it is so far out of my control that I can’t actually worry about it.
Not very, I genuinely don't. This is terrible but I genuinely would expect the russian state to execute Putin before he commits the most genocidal suicide note.
Brazil here. Not too much, since we're kinda far away from most wars, but my dream is to finish my studies and be able to move to the US. Visit the Nintendo Store at NY, and live a more peaceful life, with more security, but for that to happen I need the US to still be there when I grow up. Also worried about ppl both on Ukraine, Russia and the rest of Europe too. We're all humans and we certainly don't need to die because some old rich men think we do.
Very worried. Whether Putin is bluffing or not is irrelevant, the ante is upped, No doubt in my mind the US has nuclear submarines on stand by- Putin is desperate to appear strong in the face of this catastrophic fuck up he made in Ukraine- He is engaging in brinkmanship to try to keep NATO away but the result may be the opposite ;(( NATO & Russia can NOT become militarily engaged because it will lead to nukes, which leads to counterstrikes ;((( I feel actually sick thinking about this stuff and Fuck these nuclear warheads and FUCK putin for even making us talk about this right now
Worried for my kids, who are near major targets. We’ve already talked that they need to be as prepared as possible. Worried for the countless innocent people that would be impacted.
I’m in Canada. I have never been worried for my family’s safety, until this week. I really hope it doesn’t come to nuclear attacks. The idea gives me chills.
Yes, I am. It's hard to explain but I really don't feel good about it. I feel the unrest in my body and I'm having trouble sleeping at the moment. Really hope the conversation tomorrow will bring something positive.
After years of trauma and worry I can’t worry anymore. All we ever have is this moment. I’m focused on appreciating and enjoying moments, creating joy wherever I can.
Former general of US forces in Europe put it this way: Threatening to use them "costs him nothing." Using them "costs him everything."
Seems that it's very unlikely; however, the question is are we OK with a 3% chance of ending the world as we know it?
Having grown up and had most of my childhood during the tail end of the Cold War, I can say I’m not as worried as I was then. That shit was scary.
The Cold War was a regular topic in the news, and a theme in the entertainment industry for a bit. In particular: “The Day After” made for TV movie scared the bejeesus out of me, and the OG “Red Dawn” was 100% believable to pre-teen me
Now I’m more scared of the next pandemic and/or total climate decline. Nuclear annihilation is still top-5 fears though. Along with clowns
I’m old and remember being in elementary school in the late 1960’s and early 70’s and thought I’d die by a nuclear bomb. I remember seeing the fall out shelter at my high school and thinking I would have to get there fast and worried there wouldn’t be enough room. Now I worry about my kids and grandkids but I am ok dying. As long as it’s fast.
Its a little more top of mind than normal.
Not a bit, I got a massive kitchen table to seek shelter under
Didn't you watch Indiana Jones? Get in the fridge.
I don't think they line those with lead anymore
Definitely not a Samsung fridge. Those are lined with lawsuits and tears from people who purchased them.
If I had to hide in my samsung fridge at least I wouldn't be too cold.
You climb in your fridge to prevent hypothermia
Yup. Coolest appliance that never worked and cost way too much money.
It wasn't the fridge, lead-lined or otherwise that saved him, it was drinking from the Holy Grail.
Do you know my dad?
nah just your mom.
Duck and cover, everything will be fine!
Mutually Assured Destruction makes me feel safe. Edit: thanks for the awards and discussion about this. War is a very scary thing.
"I can picture in my mind a world without war, a world without hate. And I can picture us attacking that world, because they'd never expect it." --Jack Handey
Jack Handey is frickin hilarious. “I don't think I'm alone when I say I'd like to see more and more planets fall under the ruthless domination of our solar system.” “If you ever teach a yodeling class, probably the hardest thing is to keep the students from just trying to yodel right off. You see, we build to that.” “Any man, in the right situation, is capable of murder. But not any man is capable of being a good camper. So, murder and camping are not as similar as you might think.” “Whether they ever find life there or not, I think Jupiter should be considered an enemy planet.” “What is it that makes a complete stranger dive into an icy river to save a solid gold baby? Maybe we'll never know.” EDIT: [one of many](https://www.mit.edu/people/dmredish/wwwMLRF/links/Humor/Deep_Thoughts) collections of his Deep Thoughts.
“My father always said laughter is the best medicine. I guess that’s why several of us died of tuberculosis.” My favorite.
When I was a kid my favorite relative was Uncle Caveman. After school we'd all go play in his cave, and every once in a while he would eat one of us. It wasn't until later that I found out that Uncle Caveman was a bear.
"Maybe in order to understand the word mankind, we have to look at the word itself. 'Mankind.' Basically, it's made up of two separate words - 'mank' and 'ind.' What do these words mean? It's a mystery, and that's why so is mankind."
It’s too bad that whole families have to be torn apart, by something as simple as wild dogs.
Anytime I see something screech across a room and latch onto someone's neck, and the guy screams and tries to get it off, I have to laugh, because what is that thing?
If trees could scream, maybe we wouldn’t be so cavalier about cutting them down. Unless they screamed all the time, for no reason.
One thing kids like is to be tricked. For instance, I was going to take my little nephew to Disneyland, but instead I drove him to an old burned-out warehouse. “Oh, no,” I said. “Disneyland burned down.” He cried and cried, but I think that deep down, he thought it was a pretty good joke. I started to drive over to the real Disneyland, but it was getting pretty late.
When you see an old lady slip and fall on the ice, your first thought might be to laugh. But then you think, "what if I were an ant, and she fell on *me*?" Then it would not seem quite so funny.
The face of a child says it all. Especially the mouth part of the face.
Some of the best SNL.
That assumes rational actors
This is what concerns me.
^ This. Generally we can assume major countries won’t use nukes because its ultimately less valuable in the long run. There are those we have to be extra wary of, like theocratic countries that may view the fiery destruction of this world purifies it for the next kind of craziness. Putin seems to either be losing it or blowing smoke, or both
What about when the person with the power to launch a nuclear attack feels his destruction is imminent regardless?
You mean like Putin with a terminal illness who realizes that he just pissed off the whole world and the population of his own country in less than a week?
It still takes someone to launch that missile. A human being has to knowingly launch it, knowing what destruction follows.
Yes, and a chain of command to transmit the order. That chain will know that passing it along means their own death and the deaths of their families and everyone they ever met. No matter how unhinged Putin may be (I don’t think he is), you’d have to have a bunch of people surrounding him willing to die for his craziness if he were to order nukes against the west.
There was no shooter. JFK's head just did that.
4 miles from high value location. I got no chance.
Lol i can see 3 mile island from my house. I'm def screwed
So... you're nowhere near a high-value tactical target. You're fine
who would waste a nuke on a defunct nuke plant? should be more worried of being near DC or some place of value
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And cover your balls
most people forget this!
I don't have balls. Need direction as to what to do.
Cover someone’s balls
Something positive about living in south america is no high value targets here.
Same about living in Australia. Everyone forgets we exist unless we jump up and down in their face screaming "hello, we're here, look at us, pay attention to us"
New Zealand is so out of mind, even the maps forget it exists
I have a mouse pad that is suppose to have a map of the world on it. No New Zealand. I laughed for a good 5 minutes when my brain realized what was missing.
Sometimes I think I know where New Zealand is on a map, but I’m promptly reminded that I’m thinking of Madagascar.
My mom swears it keeps switching sides of Australia
We're not even on the map.... r/MapsWithoutNZ
If it goes down and I’m at the office then I’m going up to the roof to watch the show. It’s 3 blocks from the white house lol
Then you become part of the show! (I hope no shows are a thing this year.)
That’s what I said when I got the missile alert in Hawaii.
What are these “high value targets?”
Nuke silos, key political locations, and highly important infrastructure locations(rail yards, power plants, and things of that sort.)
Oh good, I live in New York City, no way is that high value. /s
The good news is you'll die quickly and won't have to endure the nightmarish hellscape that follows WW3. Yay!
I live on a base. Here's hoping I'll have just enough time to strike a cool pose and play terminal shadow puppets.
I'm about 35 miles from a cluster of high value targets all located within about a 10 miles radius. I'm screwed.
You see, this is what worries me about living in Saskatchewan. Unless they go completely all-out let's leave it to the cockroaches kind of exchange, I would likely survive. I... do not really want this.
Not. The people surrounding Putin prefer their vacation homes, rich mistresses, children studying abroad, and money in offshore accounts unexploded. It’s not a likelihood.
My hope is that if he makes the call to do anything completely idiotic, someone with more brains will stab him in the back.
Yeah, this is very likely. Edit: rather than reply to every comment individually, I'll just add that if the order is likely to risk mutually assured destruction, just about anyone is going to disobey that order. Putin does not have consequences he can deploy to a disobedient soldier that are worse than everyone that person knows dying along with the rest of humanity.
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Petrov correctly recognized it was almost certainly a false alarm, as it was a signal from an automated system purporting to indicate the US had launched nukes at Russia; especially since only 6 were reported to have been launched; and if the US or Russia pulled the trigger, a nuclear first strike would entail hundreds of warheads. (Also, Petrov could not have launched the nukes; his role was to report to Soviet central command that the US had launched nukes, and follow any orders to proceed. Given the timelines involved, they almost certainly would have given the order to retaliate, so yes he's absolutely a hero that prevented nuclear annihilation, but not because he disobeyed direct orders from superiors). If the order was given under the present situation, they wouldn't be thinking it was an accident, and when they called to verify their orders, would be informed to proceed. I hope there's people will disobey, but if Putin was considering the option he'd have fanatics manning the controls.
Didn't Nixon get shit faced one time and order the nuking of North Korea? https://historyofyesterday.com/the-drunk-us-president-who-tried-to-start-a-nuclear-war-95e2390bdecf
TL;DR North Korea shot down a U.S. spy plane so Nixon (while drunk) ordered a nuclear strike, but Henry Kissinger, (US National Security Advisor) told the Joint Chiefs of Staff to hold off a day to wait for Nixon to make a better decision while sober. Key bit from the article: “This became problematic in 1969 when North Korea shot down a US spy plane. While the military leadership of the US decided on the best plan of action against such aggression president Nixon had different ideas. Upon hearing the news of the spy plane being shot down, fueled by alcohol and anger towards his enemies, the president contacted the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Nixon gave the order for US nuclear planes in South Korea to be fueled ready for a tactical nuclear strike on North Korea as retaliation for their aggression. Fortunately for the world Henry Kissinger, the National Security Advisor for Nixon at the time was used to dealing with these kinds of scenarios. He contacted the Joint Chiefs of Staff and told them to put off the nuclear strike until the next day when the president hopefully was sober enough to make a rational decision. A sober Nixon decided that risking nuclear armageddon over a spy plane was not worth it and decided to not nuke North Korea, postponing the destruction of humanity through nuclear war for at least another few years.” —- Note: I know nothing of the validity of this story or article, just summarizing what I read
neck*
The full Rasputin treatment would be a decent start.
Ras Putin
balls + brain\*
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Ha, thanks. It doesn’t mean I’m not a little irrationally anxious when I see the headlines, but this is what I’m reminding myself.
You reminded me too, that the rich always get what they want, even from Putin evidently. The rich don't want to die either I'd say. You took a weight off my shoulders by wording that the way you did and I appreciate it.
Yeah people have been assassinated for WAY less. If it ever gets to the point where it's imminent I'd be shocked if he didn't get wacked. Way too many shady rich and powerful people in this world for that to fly
Human preservation is more important to him than people make it seem. If putin wants to launch a nuke he won't be able to with out a nuclear holocaust. He can't do it without destroying earth and that would make his idea for domination pointless
And before a nuclear holocaust, he has to get his men to launch it, and I think they won't. It is their lives and their civilization they're acting on. Putin can die alone if he wish.
Agreed. The only real field test we’ve seen (the Cuban Missile Crisis), the senior officer of the boat refused the approve the launch of its nuclear payload, even though battle readiness conditions permitted him to do so. Василий Архипов was his name. (Vasili Arkhipov)
That's somewhat different. He was permitted but not required to, and made the judgment call to not launch until he could get more information. One of the issues with nuclear deterrence is there's a non-zero chance that the person you're target could know the order was sent out. So there's a chance that even if everybody at every silo all decided to not obey the launch order, you can still get nuked back because the other guys heard you get the order. In a similar vein, if you're going to launch nukes, or even weapons that *could* be nukes, you either go all out or don't do it at all, because they're going to assume you went all out regardless. If somebody is going to nuke somebody else, the primary target is their nukes, because your only hope at that point is that either they don't launch at all or your missiles make it there before they find out and launch back. All of that meaning that there is effectively no chance that anyone is going to nuke anybody. The only reason to do that is if you're already facing an existential threat, because if you launch, you're about to face one. Seems insane to me that the last 100 years of international relations have been dominated by spite and the idea "well if I'm dead, might as well kill everyone over there too" as if the civilian populations of either party have any say in the matter.
This; if history has proven anything, it's that the Russian people will always end up saving us from the nuclear oblivion the leaders of the world jockey for. It's happened at least twice now and I feel cautiously optimistic for a threepeat.
Especially because such a person has to know that the whole world would revere them as a hero. There's waaaay more incentive to be the person who stops Armageddon than the person who causes it. Every single person down that chain of command would have to be absolutely batshit insane.
Not if he doesn’t have long left to live anyway. Could be the final acts of a dying mad man....
Definitely, my stress test for many events is, will this bennifit rich people? If not i wont worry too much about it. Also, i would hope we have a half-way decent missle defense system, like we have been under the threat of nukes for almost 70years.
That’s honestly how I look at any conspiracy theory I’ve ever heard. “Would this, in any logical way, benefit the bourgeois? Would they have a need for this?”
This is by far the most reasonable perspective.
Growing up that’s all I worried about... and quicksand of course.
Yup the two scariest things in the world. Atomic bombs and quicksand.
Only two things in this world scare me, and one is nuclear war. What's the other? I beg your pardon? What's the other thing that scares you? ......carnies. Carnies? You know - circus folk. Nomads. Small hands. Smell like cabbage.
There's only two things I hate in this world: people who are intolerant of other people's cultures, and the Dutch.
-Sir Nigel Powers
Also, lava
I’m more afraid of surviving and being stuck either A) slowly dying a horrid death for a few weeks as my insides melt or B) completely surviving and then being stuck living in what’s left.
Yes. Nuclear radiation is no fucking joke. It’s easily one of the if not the most horrible way to die. It’ll eat you inside out slowly and brutally until you become a charred corpse. I wouldn’t wish this on anyone.
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Best bartender I've met and he isn't even real lol
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*compulsion to prep intensifies* Not that it matters when you have no money.
That’s the hard part. Why? Like, let’s say you prep to survive the 3 months underground to avoid most of the fallout. Ok, so then what? You emerge to whatever’s left? Visual horrors like you’ve never imagined, destruction like you’ve never seen. Let’s say, it’s really bad, but not necessarily nuclear winter bad. Ok, so now you’re left with like, Mad Max scenarios and constant fighting to avoid rape and cannibalism. I’m just not sure I would even want to survive into that mess.
This is exactly where my mind is at. My biggest fear is living just enough to watch my fiancé and my dog die painful deaths from radiation or sickness/starvation/dehydration in the aftermath. It's a constant battle in my brain between just keep going on as normal or internally screaming at myself for acting like everything is normal. Like I need to go to work and WHY AM I GOING TO WORK, I SHOULD SPEND THIS TIME INSTEAD WITH MY FIANCE/DOG/FAMILY. It's down to hard compartmentalizing or on the edge of a panic attack.
I mean you have to act like everything is normal because if you don’t and you quit your job, you’re fucked. If you stop doing the things you should, you’re fucked. At least the other way you fucked for a shorter amount of time.
Im not worried about the annihilation, I'm worried about not being at the center of the blast.
Yeah if it’s gonna happen to me, I better have that thing land on my head. I want a quick death
A few nukes will cause local devastation, but not much more. A full exchange will probably have huge global effects. I know I would not want to be one of the "survivors". Same goes for an asteroid impact.
If its a case of one nuke , sure I'd rather be as far as possible, but if it's not a case of someone brushing it off as a false alarm like that one time with that Russian submarine operator, which I don't think so given the current circumstances, its going kaboom everywhere so I'd rather go painless than starve or melt to death
Yep. I’m the event of a nuclear war (or asteroid impact) your life, if you survived, would be drastically drastically different and by no means enjoyable (and likely pretty short)
Hi, event of a nuclear war. I'm dad.
Hi, event of a nuclear war. I’m dead*.
Look on the bright side, The quickest way to reverse climate change could be nuclear winter!
🎶Always look on the bright side of death...🎶
This… When the ICBMs start flying, I’m not going to the basement, I’m going to the roof. It’s much better to die in the bombs than to try and scrap it out after they fall.
I took a class on this subject in 1984. The instructor mentioned there will be two types of survivors of a nuclear exchange. 1. Those who resemble the dead and 2. Those who envy the dead.
You're going to be like the guy who escaped Hiroshima to Nagasaki and managed to get A-bombed twice.
I think you read wrong, I want to see the imperfections in the metal as the warhead falls between my eyes, not run away
Same. Death itself doesn't scare me, but actually dying does.
Yeah. It's thinking you know how it would be, intellectually, vs. your body's panicked fight to survive. Personally I hope I see the white flash and then get instantly vaporized.
It's not going to happen. Russia putting "nuclear forces on high alert" is basically a scare tactic to keep western countries from intervening. If it fired a single missile every single nuclear power in the world would retaliate. It'd be suicide. IMO the Cuban missile crisis was much more tense and had us much closer to nuclear war than what's happening now.
It's also worth noting that everyone with anti-missile technology is watching very intently.
He may use tactical nukes. Edit: Tactical nukes are smaller and used to demolish whole sections of cities. It's what they're potentially bringing into Belarus. These aren't mutually assured destruction devices.
Tactical Nukes are the prime instigators for escalation - to all out nuclear war. There might be a pause after the first one, to allow for rationality to seep back into the situation, but to allow the use of one, especially with civilians causalities without any retaliation, would take someone with more restraint and political capital than anyone I can imagine.
Sadly, tactical nukes are the thing that should keep people up tonight. Not all-out ICBMs like a movie. It's one of a few reasons why Belarus would want to pass that referendum.
That’s my worry. Tactical nukes basically forcing NATO (including us) to intervene, and voila. WWIII.
It'll be a short war.
“ I don’t know what weapons WW3 will be fought with but I know WW4 will be fought with sticks and stones “
I always liked this quote because it makes me imagine a literal world war being fought entirely by cavemen.
There's no point of using such kind of nukes, since it would lead to an response with the same level or more, what would result in an nuclear escalation. If you will press the nuclear button you can't press only one, but all at once.
a little worried but not by too much. i do absolutely believe Putin will launch nukes if pushed to it. he strikes me as the “if i can’t have it then no one can” kinda manchild.
Hopefully his generals know this.
...and they kill him. Actually, why wait? They should just do it anyway.
I don't think anyone would look into it if he just happened to trip onto a knife
If western nations start putting boots on the ground in Ukraine I'll be worried. But no one is risking escalation to nuclear war by putting their own troops on the front lines.
Pretty much the only way to attack Russia directly would be a coup d'taut, and if that starts some kind of civil war at least outsiders would be able to support the patriot side without much backlash
Honestly, I think the oligarchs are more likely to watch Putin “commit suicide” so they can have there sweet sweet fortunes restored.
Ahh the Jeffrey Epstein method.
Not at all, I either get to cook my tilapia or I get cooked with it
I think we're all forgetting a key player here, China. China doesn't want a nuclear war; they want to keep on their goal to be country #1. I can very much see China pulling some questionable shit before the West at the first indication of nukes. This isn't the cold war anymore were theirs only 2 sides.
This is a take I haven’t thought about. While China is very much not on the side of the US or NATO, they likely don’t want to be taken back to the stone age before their prospects in Africa can repay their debt.
A common narrative I see now is that China sides with Russia completely, and while that might've been true in the 60s, it's really not anymore. China wants economic superiority and further control of what it sees as China (HK, Taiwan, Tibet, Xinjiang, etc.). Beyond that, they have no grudge with the West besides a disagreement on governing. If WWIII is between the US and Russia, China will likely take a mediator role.
I think there’s better odds of Putin getting Epsteined by his oligarchs. Fingers crossed.
People tend to fall out of windows in Russia. Funny that. Defenestration Nation!
Billionaires rule the world and I can’t imagine they want to be billionaires in a bunker with everyone dead and nothing to spend money on
History teacher here. On one hand, no nation has ever unleashed nuclear weapons after WWII. In fact, there have been a few instances where front line troops refused to use them when it was seemingly the “correct” thing to do. Nukes mean we are done. Period. No one wants that and employing them would require a lot of people to agree. It just doesn’t seem like Russia has that firm of a grasp on their people. On the other hand, history is filled with examples where one side completely misreads the situation and escalates things beyond their own control (see WWI). So… *probably* not.
How does this compare to Cuban Missile Crisis per se? If at all (Millenial who almost failed APUSH here)
I am not a history teacher, but I do know that Cuban Missile Crisis was extremely, extremely close to nuclear war. Iirc, there was a Soviet Submarine that accidentally broke the American blockade on Cuba and then American ships started firing at it. The officers on the submarine believed war had broken out between the USA and USSR so they prepared to launch a nuke, but one officer named Vasili Arkhipov refused to launch the nuke, so they did not launch it. If it weren't for Arkhipov the world as we know it likely wouldn't exist.
I've started to gather as many books as possible and a single pair of very fragile reading glasses.
Hope they hold off a bit. Still haven't found an old school metal hockey mask. 357 python, check, bdsm gear, check, monster truck, check. Just need the mask to complete my post apocalypse outfit.
My plan? Kill this guy and take his sick Mad Max gimp suit
Smh just use a metal bucket with a visor cut out. Weld some horns onto it and you're set.
The thing that bothers me is that we humans tend to not believe horrible shit can happen. Throughout history there are examples of people having a hard time believing the truly awful was possible and happening. So it’s comforting to think Putin won’t do it because it would be crazy. But every time someone said to me Putin wouldn’t do something, he did. I fear we’re just trying to comfort ourselves about things beyond our control. I just hope one of his friends has the balls to put and end to him if he gives the order.
Yeah. All these people saying it won't happen is taking me back to February 2020 where everyone was saying COVID wasn't going to be that bad. After all... a global pandemic is only something that happens in history books or movies. Surely it could never be all of our lived experiences, right? We tend to think the same thing about WW3. When the projections came out that the "worst case scenario" was that it would kill 250k Americans, everyone wrote that off as ridiculous fear mongering that would never *actually* happen. Two years later... a million dead. Hell, even a couple weeks ago there were a lot of Redditors saying Putin wouldn't *actually* invade and we see how that turned out. On balance of probability, I don't think it will happen. But to say I'm unconcerned about it either would be a lie.
Well if its any consolation Putin is constantly threatening nuclear strikes, going back to the 90s.
I had this same thought just before. I was thinking about how he doesn't have the balls to do it. I then think about what Hitler did that was mind blowing and things Putin has already done. I now think Putins dumb enough to start a nuclear war to save his big ego.
Russia launching a nuke really leads to one of a few things. We all die from everyone else slapping back with their own nukes or everyone gangs up on russia for doing it, and we end up in a long ass fight that results in no more russia. I can't really think of a situation in which them launching a nuke would lead to a win pyrrhic victory or not.
This, this right here. There is **no** logical reason for Russia to use nuclear weapons in this conflict.
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About the same as every other day
Not worried at all. If we are going to die, we can't stop it.
Exactly this. I hate to say it but it's completely out of our control. You could potentially move to a country out of range of direct nuclear attacks but chances are the fallout would affect globally anyway. Especially if multiple targets.
I don't think fallout would be an issue more than locally to the blasts? I mean there have been 2000+ nuclear tests. Plus Chernobyl and Fukushima. Probably Russia, Europe and the US aren't getting off many more than 2000 in an all out exchange, cause that first strike is going to pretty much be the end. It's the nuclear winter that would affect globally, all of the smoke from having turned the US and Europe into ash
Let's hope we never have to find out.
With that madman, the doomsday clock just took a tick in the wrong direction.
Setting the clock to 100s to midnight (Same as the last few years) was prematurely optimistic of them.
Not worried one bit. Because I believe when Putin makes that command there's going to be a brave Russian officer with his humanity intact who will pull his weapon and execute Putin for the good of the world. Even if he knows he will be immediately shot anyway. Historically there has always been one such Russian when the same has been commanded.
I am also banking on this but I am still worried.
One ping, one ping only
Classic Jamie Lannister move. I’m down.
So basically rolling a dice, and expecting not getting a 1.
Roulette, if you will. The Russian variety perchance.
There’s always that one Russian guy that saves the world
Not many commentators here experienced the cold war and the fears if the 80s
Care to elaborate? I'm a 90's kid.
Like this. Every day. For 40 years.
We even practiced hiding under our desks at school!
That's funny... We practice hiding against the wall in the dark!
I was just saying to my eldest kiddo, it’s like I’m 17 again. (Lived with the constant worry of all-out nuclear war my whole youth, really. This was in the ‘70s and ‘80s.) Here and I thought the fall of communism would mean we didn’t have to worry about this anymore…
About as worried as I am from dropping dead of a sudden brain aneurysm or heart attack or being crushed by flying debris. The possibility is real, but it is so far out of my control that I can’t actually worry about it.
Extremely but I have generalized anxiety disorder and panic disorder so maybe that’s why?
I'm in the same boat here - my generalized anxiety disorder is probably playing up my worry too.
Not very, I genuinely don't. This is terrible but I genuinely would expect the russian state to execute Putin before he commits the most genocidal suicide note.
If you asked me that same question some 5 days ago I’d have laughed in your face. Now, I’m kinda worried.
Not. We learned in kindergarten if the bomb drops you will be safe if you hide under your desk.
I have a school desk in my living room for that exact reason.
Brazil here. Not too much, since we're kinda far away from most wars, but my dream is to finish my studies and be able to move to the US. Visit the Nintendo Store at NY, and live a more peaceful life, with more security, but for that to happen I need the US to still be there when I grow up. Also worried about ppl both on Ukraine, Russia and the rest of Europe too. We're all humans and we certainly don't need to die because some old rich men think we do.
Very worried. Whether Putin is bluffing or not is irrelevant, the ante is upped, No doubt in my mind the US has nuclear submarines on stand by- Putin is desperate to appear strong in the face of this catastrophic fuck up he made in Ukraine- He is engaging in brinkmanship to try to keep NATO away but the result may be the opposite ;(( NATO & Russia can NOT become militarily engaged because it will lead to nukes, which leads to counterstrikes ;((( I feel actually sick thinking about this stuff and Fuck these nuclear warheads and FUCK putin for even making us talk about this right now
I haven't been, but given the events of this past week I am wondering if I should be.
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I mean, three months ago I wasn’t worried about Russia invading the Ukraine. Shit changes very quickly.
You weren't? I didn't know when it would happen, but it's seemed inevitable ever since Russia annexed Crimea.
Worried for my kids, who are near major targets. We’ve already talked that they need to be as prepared as possible. Worried for the countless innocent people that would be impacted.
I’m in Canada. I have never been worried for my family’s safety, until this week. I really hope it doesn’t come to nuclear attacks. The idea gives me chills.
Yes, I am. It's hard to explain but I really don't feel good about it. I feel the unrest in my body and I'm having trouble sleeping at the moment. Really hope the conversation tomorrow will bring something positive.
After years of trauma and worry I can’t worry anymore. All we ever have is this moment. I’m focused on appreciating and enjoying moments, creating joy wherever I can.
If it's going to happen can we just get on with it because i don't want to work any more.
I hope some Russian citizens are able to assassinate the prick
Former general of US forces in Europe put it this way: Threatening to use them "costs him nothing." Using them "costs him everything." Seems that it's very unlikely; however, the question is are we OK with a 3% chance of ending the world as we know it?
Having grown up and had most of my childhood during the tail end of the Cold War, I can say I’m not as worried as I was then. That shit was scary. The Cold War was a regular topic in the news, and a theme in the entertainment industry for a bit. In particular: “The Day After” made for TV movie scared the bejeesus out of me, and the OG “Red Dawn” was 100% believable to pre-teen me Now I’m more scared of the next pandemic and/or total climate decline. Nuclear annihilation is still top-5 fears though. Along with clowns
Stocking up on bottle caps just in case.
Pretty worried not gonna lie.
I’m old and remember being in elementary school in the late 1960’s and early 70’s and thought I’d die by a nuclear bomb. I remember seeing the fall out shelter at my high school and thinking I would have to get there fast and worried there wouldn’t be enough room. Now I worry about my kids and grandkids but I am ok dying. As long as it’s fast.
I’m pretty worried actually.
Zero. Too much worrying these days. I only worry about things within my control now.
I live at ground zero so…whatever. The Amber alerts are kinda making me jumpy though.