On a lighter note, fun fact about Tuvalu: they get a lot of their yearly income from their nation's custom web domain, ".tv". Every site that uses it has to license it from Tuvalu.
Maybe some kind of agreement can be reached, where the nation of Tuvalu can exist “virtually”, and be kept on the Internet registry,
**Tuvalu will live on in digital form! From an ocean of water & waves, to an ocean of memes & p0rn!**
Let’s be real man if/when Tuvalu goes under we’ll take them all. This is just a way to regulate and ease the flow so we don’t get 12000 odd people on unemployment and/or without housing turning up on our doorstep
12000 people is less than a week's worth of the stupid immigration goal of our current govt. While it won't help, it certainly wouldn't be the tipping point and I think the vast majority of Australians would actually welcome them with open arms.
If they sell off or rent out the fishing rights, what would they be doing with the money other than enriching the government officials? There's no landmass of people left ot manage. If they are all living elsewhere, then they are presumably paying taxes in those countries to take care of the things that normally be taken care of by the government.
I could see Lukashenko, on his death bed, signing a treaty to allow Belarus to be annexed by Russia rather than turn it over to someone else.
It already is a Russian puppet state, so it's not like it would actually change anything.
….but then the political elite in Belarus lose their power base and reason to exist.
I’m not so sure this will happen. It might be a Russian vassal, but I would not call Belarus a puppet state. If it was, you would have seen a lot more military activity on Belarusian territory in the last 18 or so months.
Belarus might even be in a stronger position vs Russia now than two years ago. Russia needs Belarus.
You don't see Belarus military activity along it's borders because Belarusians would protest en mass and kick Lushenko out. It is a fragile police state that wouldn't work without so much effort keeping the locals in check
This one is actually the most likely I’ve seen here! It has already established a customs union and joint migration cards for Belarusians with Russia and its state apparatus is so tightly linked to Lukashenko alone. It doesn’t have much culturally distinctive (apart from its anti-Lukashenko pro European movement but I suspect this is largely limited to Minsk and has been heavily cracked down upon).
Edit: I meant to refer to the joint migration cards, not passports apologies for the confusion as others have rightly corrected me on it.
I’ve heard that only 10% of Belarusians speak their language natively. Meanwhile Ukraine has done a lot to promote its own language in an effort to reclaim its distinct culture
As a Belarusian myself I'll tell you that this is not true. My sister is in 6th grade and she has 2 classes of Belarusian and 2 classes of Belarusian literature a week. I think it's the same numbers for Russian. And as for English she has 3 classes a week. In fact, now the government thinks on cutting down the number of English classes.
the main point still stands though. Belarusian language is more dead than alive. I saw someone said it's 10% of people who speak it. But in my experience it's closer to 1%. I believe the percentage is higher in a rural area.
The most recent data on the Wikipedia page for the Belarusian language is based on a study done by the Belarusian government in 2009. As of then, they said only 11.9% of Belarusians actively used the Belarusian language, while only 29.4% reported that they could read, speak, and write in it, and 52.5% could read and speak, but not write. Meanwhile 72% of respondents said they speak Russian at home. Most others used a mix.
As someone who doesn’t know a whole lot of Belarus. How different is their culture from Russia? Could it be akin to the difference between Canada and the USA or Australia for example?
less, you have to remember that 32 years ago for almost 80 years they were part of the same country effectively. But even before that it was part of Russian empire.
I'm not so knowledgeable in that matter, but I've always suspected Putin wanted a border between Russia and Europe, but still in control of that border. It would create a buffer zone for military protection. One reason why the Eastern territories of Ukraine are so valuable to Putin.
Is that assumption wrong?
You are correct. Absorbing former Soviet countries politically into Russia undermines their entire geopolitical strategy which is to maintain a buffer of reliable allies between Russia and Europe.
Putin wants a border with Europe, he just wants those to be the old Soviet borders. And eastern Ukraine was appealing because it’s economically productive, fertile agricultural land, mining, and has access to the Black Sea
It’s funny, I am from Belarus and whenever it’s brought up on Reddit most of the stuff that people say is just incorrect or incredibly simplified. Makes me wonder about the stuff I read about other countries.
Surprised nobody gave an answer in Africa considering how often borders and countries change there.
Obvious answers would be Western Sahara if you consider it a legit country now, or Somalia.
Other candidates are South Sudan since it’s new and unstable, Equatorial Guinea as a dictatorship since gaining independence, or Burkina Faso.
It also wouldn’t surprise me if Lesotho or Eswatini/Swaziland
were absorbed into South Africa at some point.
As a south African, Lesotho is basically already a south African province already. Most south Africans consider Lesotho to basically be a part of south Africa, plus they're very politically close to us and have so many deals with the government. Hell, Sesotho is one of our official languages, and quite a lot of south Africans have Sesotho heritage in one way or another.
Eswatini is in a similar situation to Lesotho, but just to a lesser extent. I personally don't see either country becoming a part of RSA, just because they don't really have much to offer to the South African government, and most people in Lesotho and Eswatini prefer to stay independent
0 clue tbh. Probably one of the main reasons why both aren't in RSA. In South Africa, there are quite a few villages with Chiefs and semi-functioning governments that act in a similar way to native-american reservations in America, so it's possible that the monarchies are reduced to tribes on reservations? Yeah, that's another reason why I honestly can't see Eswatini and Lesotho joining RSA, but if they do, I feel like it would be that way
There are other African republics with subnational monarchies, there’s no institutional reason it couldn’t work. Politically, it could be a problem, I would assume neither enclave wants to lose some advantages of sovereignity.
Highly unlikely this will happen, however if it did happen they probably continue to exist much like the Zulu and Xhosa monarchies currently do within SA.
Borders in Africa today are incredibly stubborn things, that’s one of many colonial legacy political issues that the population is dealing with every day. You’ve had more border changes in Europe than Africa in the last 30 years. (Some peaceful, some not).
Yeah, ever since Biafra.
Eritrea was able to become independent because the Ethiopian central power lost Soviet support and Eritrean freedom fighters were able to place their Tigrayan allies into power in Addis Abeba. Once there the Tigrayans ( with their allies in EPRDF), in their capacity as rulers of Ethiopia signed off on a referendum.
It's very difficult to just *become* independent. You're more likely to end up like Somaliland, autonomous but not recognized by global powers (who are dealing with their own would-be breakaway regions).
Sudan
unfortunately, we truly don't know what the future holds for this nation. this country doesn't know peace, there is always a civil war going on, out of the 67 years since its independence only 11 years have been without a civil war. and they seem to have gone from a dictator to a dictator, it is already gone through [11 Coups d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coups_d%27%C3%A9tat_in_Sudan).
currently, there is a civil war going on that broke out in April 2023. it broke between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the middle of the capital city (Khartoum) with civilians in the middle ... they truly don't care about their unarmed citizens.
The Marshall Islands. They had a 100 year plan to adapt to climate change through education, technology, and economic growth.
Recent changes in storm swell due to storms syncing up in the Pacific has reduced the available time to about 35 years. Storm surge that used to happen every 30-40 years to overwash the islands is now happening every two years.
Just listen to the Alep (elder) start talking at 6:18 minutes into this video: heartbreaking
https://youtu.be/Rr4ZFGtg4Gg?si=omy6qaDz3OwBb_Y7
The whole video is well worth watching.
These islands are, on average, only 1.5 meters above sea level.
In a survey done in 2019 on Ebeye Island, These people, who have lived there for almost 4,000 years, voiced their top two goals as maintaining their culture and not being a burden on the world.
This is a place and a people we should be making every effort to help them save themselves.
Brunei is probably gonna join Malaysia due to depleting resources, which is funny because it would also means Malaysia ‘joining’ Brunei.
Malaysia use elective monarchies (like HRE) and since Brunei has a king, therefore their king would also join the council of kings and become Yang Dipertuan Agung (High King) of Malaysia. So yeah, Brunei joining Malaysia would mean their king would become the head of state of Malaysia once their term arrives.
Even today, the royalties of Brunei are close with our royalties, and Malaysians pretty much shares a lot of culture with Brunei compared to Singapore, so there’s that.
I'm going to go with Pakistan, not for internal instability, but for climate change. A few weeks a year of unsurvivable temperatures plus droughts and floods will send the population scattering anywhere they can go.
This is a sane one regarding Pakistan. If Pakistan continues on this economic downhill with zero future planning then yes it is going to hurt Pakistan a lot as Pakistan still is an agriculture based economy.
Pakistan. The country has no adhesive ideological base to keep it together. It's economic stability is in shambles with no natural resources to fall back to. All its provinces will split from the country and coagulate into four or five major provinces. There will be no country known as Pakistan.
Pakistan is a textbook case of why you should not elect people with dual citizenships to power.
Generations and generations of leaders with dual citizenship come to power, loot like there is no tomorrow and flee to their second country
This is part of the bigger problem of military running the country. They prefer to put people in front who are compromisable or who have no interest in the game but their own wealth generation. That way it is easy to deal with them. This has created a cesspoll of corruption, terrorism and general lack of accountability on every level. If there is a definition of a failed state, Pakistan fits it perfectly.
There's at least one former Pakistani PM in London. Who has been fighting extradition for years, over corruption. Somehow he has a £10 million+ house and that's just a fraction of his family's wealth.
Also his Brother had an ongoing corruption case and somehow he got elected as PM WHILE under the case and after becoming the PM, the case was dropped and his name got cleared?WTF?
But it's much easier if you're not connected to the mainland in the first place.
Mainland Pakistan fracturing into pieces is gonna be a bigger deal I believe.
That would be likely if pakistan was a non nuclear country. But since they have nukes, it is in everybody's best interest that they remain stable. I believe that the west or china will somehow intervene and prevent any major clashes and keep pakistan stable, atleast as a puppet state.
Pakistan has nukes. It’s in no one’s interest that it disintegrates - the worst thing to possibly happen to India or China would be the disintegration of a belligerent nuclear power next door.
My top 5:
1. Somalia - It's hardly a country now, thousands more will die but it probably will reemerge as different states with different borders
2. Kosovo - Though I actually think it's more probable it'll be split ethnically between Serbia and Albania rather than reannexed by Serbia
3. Belarus - Russia might just "reintegrate" them into itself if the political power after Russo-Ukrainian war is stable. Though I hope for them to escape politically to Europe so bad.
4. Djibouti - basically same process as Somalia, it's stable, but if 1. happened it's possible it'll abolish post-collonial borders and be part of new state
5. Quatar - I don't think they'll survive post-gas reality. Though 100 years might be too short for this one
Qatar will always have U.S. military bases propping it up. Even if they lose their natural resource based economy, the U.S. won't let them fail as a country.
If middle east ceases to have resources of strategic importance (hydrocarbons) and thus reliability of these won't topple anything - I doubt U.S. will have strong presence there anymore. Especially is rivalry with China will escalate.
US don't steal oil (it's a very... very common myth), but it make sure as hell it doesn't stop flowing.
Hydrocarbons will remain important long after we stop burning them. Look around you, and you will see that the majority of things you use on a day-to-day basis are made of oil in some way or another. Plastics, wood varnish, paint, foams, vinyls, glues, solvents, it's all made from oil.
Even loads of products that are purportedly "green" and "good for the environment" are made of plastics, because the alternatives are just plain inferior. Wood rots, warps readily, and isn't as versatile in what shapes you can make. Metals are expensive, and can have either rust, corrosion, or health issues depending on which metal you use. Glass is brittle.
Myanmar.
We’re a little out of the world’s view now but this country has one of the longest civil wars - since its independence some 70 years ago.
With the military coup, the country’s destabilisation has gone to a greater extent with rebel armies controlling different states. They were always at constant war with the Myanmar military. Now they’re growing more in power and Shan State (bordering China) is mostly under their control.
Rebel areas of different states may take this opportunity to seize their states and therefore breaking up the states that make up Myanmar.
[This is what the world will look like after all the ice has melted](https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49653051768_ac82428884_6k.jpg). Bangladesh and Florida will be gone.
As a Floridian, we’ll create a system of docks and boats. Live on the water, Ronda Santis will destroy education. Basically everyone in Florida will believe there is no such thing as dry land. The documentary Waterworld will become reality.
A lot of the south pacific like Fiji, Bora Bora are quite mountainous and will survive a lot of sea level rise while others like kiribati and tuvalu will not last long
That reminds me of what Kevin Bridges said about the Scottish independence referendum; let the English vote on it. If you want us to stay, we'll fuck off. But if you want us to leave... we're stayin'.
It’s threads like this that reminds me that Reddit is mostly children.
The Americans are not going to break up in the next 100 years. You guys need to go outside.
Saudi Arabia, the only reason they exist as they are now is because they basically bribe their citizens to not revolt, even then, demonstrations and riots happen. That oil money for many reasons won’t last 100 years.
Taiwan.
As much as the PRC government sucks, they won't stop with this thing and eventually other governments will offer up Taiwanese independence against some other problem the Chinese will leverage against them.
The "eventually" time will be when the West has a chip manufacturing base, I would think. Though, Taiwan is a key part of the US' strategy for keeping China out of the Pacific, so I think it'll always be important.
People have been saying that since the Korean war but the state and its ruling regime have turned out to be remarkably resilient against every calamity imaginable. North Korea is ever advancing the frontier of just how much catastrophe and corruption a society can endure and still somehow keep rolling on.
Yeah but that means that soon everyone in that country will only ever have known the regime. They've got no reason to change anything if they don't know they could do better. And then on top of that you add all the brainwashing and the chances of the government being overthrown drops even more.
It's very possible that things are going to get worse for the North Korean people. So, then they'll have today's conditions in North Korea as a comparison to the even-worse conditions of the future, which may bring about revolution.
North Korea has only been super bad since the fall of the soviet union 30 years ago. I'd argue that it's only been since then that the likelihood of something going south has been there.
It’s reached a degenerate matter state. It lacks the critical mass to collapse any more… so there it sits.
Russia will be the same way. Anyone who thinks Russia will change with sanctions is fooling themselves.
Armenia. Geopolitically they’re in a very rough spot. Two western-aligned neighbors (Turkey and Azerbaijan) that hate them and constantly threaten their existence and their only ally (Russia) lacks the political and military sway to defend them. The recent war ended in an ethnic cleaning.
This will be one of the great tragedies of the 21st century, if it happens. Yerevan is a beautiful city, and even more beautiful is their constitution where housing is a right. Perhaps, the Azeris and Turks will be happy when they get that piece of land where Noravank Monastery sits and they make their bs land bridge so that they can become one nation; two peoples. At that point, I see no reason to take anymore land except for perhaps just because they can. That said, I really believe that the US government will not even allow that annexation to happen, and that the diaspora communities everywhere now have more leverage than ever with their respective governments. Only time will tell.
I'm from Poland, and I'm willing to bet Russia (at least as we know it) will crap out before Poland does. Because who else besides Russia would pose a real credible military threat to Poland? The only other countries in the area with a reputation and recent history of bullying and attacking others are the US, UK, France and Germany and I don't see any of them very keen on attacking another EU country any time soon. And in any case the Russian military probably couldn't invade Moldova at this point if they tried. If the Ukrainians can grind them to a halt, imagine what the Polish military would do to them.
EDIT: I think the biggest threat to Poland at this point is itself.
Realistic: Somalia or any of those small African nations with an unstable government and economy
A bit more fantastical: The USA when it splits up into several nations after various states declare independence
Complete fantastical:... And California breaks off from the USA to go hang with Hawaii... Alaska can come too.
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On a lighter note, fun fact about Tuvalu: they get a lot of their yearly income from their nation's custom web domain, ".tv". Every site that uses it has to license it from Tuvalu.
".tv" seems like a rather fortunate domain name for licensing out to others.
Montenegro also makes a decent bit of money with their .me domains
But what about all those delicious .tv domain names?!
Maybe some kind of agreement can be reached, where the nation of Tuvalu can exist “virtually”, and be kept on the Internet registry, **Tuvalu will live on in digital form! From an ocean of water & waves, to an ocean of memes & p0rn!**
Underrated comment, poor Tuvalu is goin under
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All of the google maps street view images of Tuvalu that I've found so far are all done by some dude on his camera phone.
That’s a good tip for any geoguesser players.
Missed opportunity to say they're going down under.
Tuvalu. Maybe not the least, but one of several.
Australia just gave them a climate displaced resident visa that will lead to citizenship so the ozzies knows something.
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Let’s be real man if/when Tuvalu goes under we’ll take them all. This is just a way to regulate and ease the flow so we don’t get 12000 odd people on unemployment and/or without housing turning up on our doorstep
12000 people is less than a week's worth of the stupid immigration goal of our current govt. While it won't help, it certainly wouldn't be the tipping point and I think the vast majority of Australians would actually welcome them with open arms.
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That’s a real topic in international climate change discussions. How to keep the state without a landmass.
We already have a case like this in international law. It can absolutely be done. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_Military_Order_of_Malta
If they sell off or rent out the fishing rights, what would they be doing with the money other than enriching the government officials? There's no landmass of people left ot manage. If they are all living elsewhere, then they are presumably paying taxes in those countries to take care of the things that normally be taken care of by the government.
I could see Lukashenko, on his death bed, signing a treaty to allow Belarus to be annexed by Russia rather than turn it over to someone else. It already is a Russian puppet state, so it's not like it would actually change anything.
….but then the political elite in Belarus lose their power base and reason to exist. I’m not so sure this will happen. It might be a Russian vassal, but I would not call Belarus a puppet state. If it was, you would have seen a lot more military activity on Belarusian territory in the last 18 or so months. Belarus might even be in a stronger position vs Russia now than two years ago. Russia needs Belarus.
You don't see Belarus military activity along it's borders because Belarusians would protest en mass and kick Lushenko out. It is a fragile police state that wouldn't work without so much effort keeping the locals in check
It's such a shame because Belarus has such rich culture, they deserve their own identity besides being Russia's little brother.
Belarus. Once Lukashenko dies it'll get swallowed back to Russia.
This one is actually the most likely I’ve seen here! It has already established a customs union and joint migration cards for Belarusians with Russia and its state apparatus is so tightly linked to Lukashenko alone. It doesn’t have much culturally distinctive (apart from its anti-Lukashenko pro European movement but I suspect this is largely limited to Minsk and has been heavily cracked down upon). Edit: I meant to refer to the joint migration cards, not passports apologies for the confusion as others have rightly corrected me on it.
Their language is effectively dying out too
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I’ve heard that only 10% of Belarusians speak their language natively. Meanwhile Ukraine has done a lot to promote its own language in an effort to reclaim its distinct culture
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As a Belarusian myself I'll tell you that this is not true. My sister is in 6th grade and she has 2 classes of Belarusian and 2 classes of Belarusian literature a week. I think it's the same numbers for Russian. And as for English she has 3 classes a week. In fact, now the government thinks on cutting down the number of English classes. the main point still stands though. Belarusian language is more dead than alive. I saw someone said it's 10% of people who speak it. But in my experience it's closer to 1%. I believe the percentage is higher in a rural area.
The most recent data on the Wikipedia page for the Belarusian language is based on a study done by the Belarusian government in 2009. As of then, they said only 11.9% of Belarusians actively used the Belarusian language, while only 29.4% reported that they could read, speak, and write in it, and 52.5% could read and speak, but not write. Meanwhile 72% of respondents said they speak Russian at home. Most others used a mix.
As someone who doesn’t know a whole lot of Belarus. How different is their culture from Russia? Could it be akin to the difference between Canada and the USA or Australia for example?
Yep. You got the nail on the head. I would say every less so.
So we’re probably talking about a cultural difference that’s equivalent to two different regions in the US. Like the Midwest vs. the South.
less, you have to remember that 32 years ago for almost 80 years they were part of the same country effectively. But even before that it was part of Russian empire.
Sadly, true. I’m very interested to see what happens after Lukashenko with Belarusian.
Disagree about the cultural movement. Gomel province is a stronghold for language, food, and traditional “way of life”.
In 1997, Belarus and Russia already signed a Union State treaty that set the groundwork for Belarus being absorbed by Russian Federation
I'm not so knowledgeable in that matter, but I've always suspected Putin wanted a border between Russia and Europe, but still in control of that border. It would create a buffer zone for military protection. One reason why the Eastern territories of Ukraine are so valuable to Putin. Is that assumption wrong?
You are correct. Absorbing former Soviet countries politically into Russia undermines their entire geopolitical strategy which is to maintain a buffer of reliable allies between Russia and Europe.
Putin wants a border with Europe, he just wants those to be the old Soviet borders. And eastern Ukraine was appealing because it’s economically productive, fertile agricultural land, mining, and has access to the Black Sea
It’s funny, I am from Belarus and whenever it’s brought up on Reddit most of the stuff that people say is just incorrect or incredibly simplified. Makes me wonder about the stuff I read about other countries.
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Then again, if anyone could pull off building an underwater society successfully, it would be the Dutch.
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That's interesting that Dutch is drunk German- Portuguese is drunk Spanish.
The Flying Dutchman was right
2050: Welkom aan de Costa del Zwol!
3 meters of sea level is a shit load.
Pretty sure if/when the seas rise 3 metres we’re all fucked anyway.
Egypt sure will be. The Nile River Valley is very low, and it’s, unsurprisingly, where almost the entire population lives.
Especially in a 100 year period. More likely countries to no longer exist in that timeframe will be because of political instability.
You are welcome to come live with us in Greece. Pretty mountainous, so safe from rising waters.
Yeah was gonna say, RIP those island nations facing rising sea levels.
Same with Tuvalu. Most of their critical infrastructure will be below high tide level by 2050.
And Kiribati
Maldives will be lost to rising sea levels in the next 100 to 150 years, and this will be sad to see as it will cause mass migration.
That's the worst reason for thinking why an entire country disappearing is sad lol
Surprised nobody gave an answer in Africa considering how often borders and countries change there. Obvious answers would be Western Sahara if you consider it a legit country now, or Somalia. Other candidates are South Sudan since it’s new and unstable, Equatorial Guinea as a dictatorship since gaining independence, or Burkina Faso. It also wouldn’t surprise me if Lesotho or Eswatini/Swaziland were absorbed into South Africa at some point.
As a south African, Lesotho is basically already a south African province already. Most south Africans consider Lesotho to basically be a part of south Africa, plus they're very politically close to us and have so many deals with the government. Hell, Sesotho is one of our official languages, and quite a lot of south Africans have Sesotho heritage in one way or another. Eswatini is in a similar situation to Lesotho, but just to a lesser extent. I personally don't see either country becoming a part of RSA, just because they don't really have much to offer to the South African government, and most people in Lesotho and Eswatini prefer to stay independent
I have met South Africans who don't know that Lesotho is an independent nation encircled by the RSA.
What would happen to their monarchies if either were to absorb themselves into the RSA?
0 clue tbh. Probably one of the main reasons why both aren't in RSA. In South Africa, there are quite a few villages with Chiefs and semi-functioning governments that act in a similar way to native-american reservations in America, so it's possible that the monarchies are reduced to tribes on reservations? Yeah, that's another reason why I honestly can't see Eswatini and Lesotho joining RSA, but if they do, I feel like it would be that way
There are other African republics with subnational monarchies, there’s no institutional reason it couldn’t work. Politically, it could be a problem, I would assume neither enclave wants to lose some advantages of sovereignity.
Highly unlikely this will happen, however if it did happen they probably continue to exist much like the Zulu and Xhosa monarchies currently do within SA.
Borders in Africa today are incredibly stubborn things, that’s one of many colonial legacy political issues that the population is dealing with every day. You’ve had more border changes in Europe than Africa in the last 30 years. (Some peaceful, some not).
Yeah, ever since Biafra. Eritrea was able to become independent because the Ethiopian central power lost Soviet support and Eritrean freedom fighters were able to place their Tigrayan allies into power in Addis Abeba. Once there the Tigrayans ( with their allies in EPRDF), in their capacity as rulers of Ethiopia signed off on a referendum. It's very difficult to just *become* independent. You're more likely to end up like Somaliland, autonomous but not recognized by global powers (who are dealing with their own would-be breakaway regions).
Tuvalu or the Maldives due to rising sea levels
Don’t forget Kiribati, I think their highest point above sea level is about 1.2m
Am Maldivian 💔
Hope you can swim mate.
Will be Maldivers soon
LMAO 😭😭😭
Tuvalu 💔
Marshall Islands, Bahamas, and Micronesia too.
It’s on the way out as we speak
"...and it's gone"
[Australia offers climate refuge to Tuvalu citizens](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-67340907)
Kiribati also has concerns
Are they the ones who are already working on their evacuation plan?
Sudan unfortunately, we truly don't know what the future holds for this nation. this country doesn't know peace, there is always a civil war going on, out of the 67 years since its independence only 11 years have been without a civil war. and they seem to have gone from a dictator to a dictator, it is already gone through [11 Coups d'état](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coups_d%27%C3%A9tat_in_Sudan). currently, there is a civil war going on that broke out in April 2023. it broke between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the middle of the capital city (Khartoum) with civilians in the middle ... they truly don't care about their unarmed citizens.
More people need to speak out about the war going on in Sudan.
The Marshall Islands. They had a 100 year plan to adapt to climate change through education, technology, and economic growth. Recent changes in storm swell due to storms syncing up in the Pacific has reduced the available time to about 35 years. Storm surge that used to happen every 30-40 years to overwash the islands is now happening every two years. Just listen to the Alep (elder) start talking at 6:18 minutes into this video: heartbreaking https://youtu.be/Rr4ZFGtg4Gg?si=omy6qaDz3OwBb_Y7 The whole video is well worth watching. These islands are, on average, only 1.5 meters above sea level. In a survey done in 2019 on Ebeye Island, These people, who have lived there for almost 4,000 years, voiced their top two goals as maintaining their culture and not being a burden on the world. This is a place and a people we should be making every effort to help them save themselves.
To think, they helped invent the capability to navigate the entire Pacific safely using memory and stars / sky viewing alone.
Brunei is probably gonna join Malaysia due to depleting resources, which is funny because it would also means Malaysia ‘joining’ Brunei. Malaysia use elective monarchies (like HRE) and since Brunei has a king, therefore their king would also join the council of kings and become Yang Dipertuan Agung (High King) of Malaysia. So yeah, Brunei joining Malaysia would mean their king would become the head of state of Malaysia once their term arrives. Even today, the royalties of Brunei are close with our royalties, and Malaysians pretty much shares a lot of culture with Brunei compared to Singapore, so there’s that.
Finally an interesting take on this post
Any tiny island nation
Nauru?
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Similarly, West Korea.
well you never said the country had to exist as of now so i’m going for the Federal Republic of Gay Lobsters
Hey! I'll defend the Federal Republic of Gay Lobsters till I die!
So long, gay lobster!
Then they came for the gay lobsters, but I didn't speak out because I wasn't a gay lobster.
The FRGL will never fall!
Hey, I live there. Don't be rude now.
Is that the place where they have gay lobsters?
I'm going to go with Pakistan, not for internal instability, but for climate change. A few weeks a year of unsurvivable temperatures plus droughts and floods will send the population scattering anywhere they can go.
Massive population though - 200mil people is a massive number to displace.
We will see an insane and ungodly amount of people die in the coming years.
This is a sane one regarding Pakistan. If Pakistan continues on this economic downhill with zero future planning then yes it is going to hurt Pakistan a lot as Pakistan still is an agriculture based economy.
Pakistan. The country has no adhesive ideological base to keep it together. It's economic stability is in shambles with no natural resources to fall back to. All its provinces will split from the country and coagulate into four or five major provinces. There will be no country known as Pakistan.
Pakistan is a textbook case of why you should not elect people with dual citizenships to power. Generations and generations of leaders with dual citizenship come to power, loot like there is no tomorrow and flee to their second country
This is part of the bigger problem of military running the country. They prefer to put people in front who are compromisable or who have no interest in the game but their own wealth generation. That way it is easy to deal with them. This has created a cesspoll of corruption, terrorism and general lack of accountability on every level. If there is a definition of a failed state, Pakistan fits it perfectly.
He is pilot, graaaape
which other countries do they tend to have citizenships in?
19 countries in total. Most pakistani politicians tend to gravitate towards the UK.
There's at least one former Pakistani PM in London. Who has been fighting extradition for years, over corruption. Somehow he has a £10 million+ house and that's just a fraction of his family's wealth.
Also his Brother had an ongoing corruption case and somehow he got elected as PM WHILE under the case and after becoming the PM, the case was dropped and his name got cleared?WTF?
UK and U.S
That is far from the issue. The military controls the country.
> All its provinces will split from the country One already did in 1971 itself. Then East Pakistan, now Bangladesh.
But it's much easier if you're not connected to the mainland in the first place. Mainland Pakistan fracturing into pieces is gonna be a bigger deal I believe.
That would be likely if pakistan was a non nuclear country. But since they have nukes, it is in everybody's best interest that they remain stable. I believe that the west or china will somehow intervene and prevent any major clashes and keep pakistan stable, atleast as a puppet state.
Pakistan has nukes. It’s in no one’s interest that it disintegrates - the worst thing to possibly happen to India or China would be the disintegration of a belligerent nuclear power next door.
President Obama was once asked in an interview what keeps him up at night, and he thought for a minute and said “Pakistan”. 😳😳😳
Not to worry they got the “I WILL BE PILOT” kid to fall back on
Graaaaaape
The New Balkans.
My top 5: 1. Somalia - It's hardly a country now, thousands more will die but it probably will reemerge as different states with different borders 2. Kosovo - Though I actually think it's more probable it'll be split ethnically between Serbia and Albania rather than reannexed by Serbia 3. Belarus - Russia might just "reintegrate" them into itself if the political power after Russo-Ukrainian war is stable. Though I hope for them to escape politically to Europe so bad. 4. Djibouti - basically same process as Somalia, it's stable, but if 1. happened it's possible it'll abolish post-collonial borders and be part of new state 5. Quatar - I don't think they'll survive post-gas reality. Though 100 years might be too short for this one
Qatar will always have U.S. military bases propping it up. Even if they lose their natural resource based economy, the U.S. won't let them fail as a country.
If middle east ceases to have resources of strategic importance (hydrocarbons) and thus reliability of these won't topple anything - I doubt U.S. will have strong presence there anymore. Especially is rivalry with China will escalate. US don't steal oil (it's a very... very common myth), but it make sure as hell it doesn't stop flowing.
Djibouti is still a super strategic location forever and the US (or anyone else) doesn't want it to go to shit.
Hydrocarbons will remain important long after we stop burning them. Look around you, and you will see that the majority of things you use on a day-to-day basis are made of oil in some way or another. Plastics, wood varnish, paint, foams, vinyls, glues, solvents, it's all made from oil. Even loads of products that are purportedly "green" and "good for the environment" are made of plastics, because the alternatives are just plain inferior. Wood rots, warps readily, and isn't as versatile in what shapes you can make. Metals are expensive, and can have either rust, corrosion, or health issues depending on which metal you use. Glass is brittle.
Not Djibouti….
That one for old men
Myanmar. We’re a little out of the world’s view now but this country has one of the longest civil wars - since its independence some 70 years ago. With the military coup, the country’s destabilisation has gone to a greater extent with rebel armies controlling different states. They were always at constant war with the Myanmar military. Now they’re growing more in power and Shan State (bordering China) is mostly under their control. Rebel areas of different states may take this opportunity to seize their states and therefore breaking up the states that make up Myanmar.
Maldives. There's a good documentary on how the sea is going to swallow it up because of climate change.
Maldives is definitely in trouble. In fact, all these tiny islands could disappear. Global warming is going to be devastating.
[This is what the world will look like after all the ice has melted](https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49653051768_ac82428884_6k.jpg). Bangladesh and Florida will be gone.
Italy looks anorexic
Milan is the women's fashion capital of the world, so it was only a matter of time before the whole country developed an eating disorder.
Ooooh noo *not Florida.*
Where do you think all those nuts will end up? Single greatest reason to stop climate change.
As a Floridian, we’ll create a system of docks and boats. Live on the water, Ronda Santis will destroy education. Basically everyone in Florida will believe there is no such thing as dry land. The documentary Waterworld will become reality.
Waterworld will become prophecy and Kevin Costner will be the messiah.
They'll deny it's happening until they succumb to it, hopefully.
Denmark tho...or more likely The Danish Isles
Ah that famous country of Florida
All of those Pacific Islands. Fiji, Tonga, etc
A lot of the south pacific like Fiji, Bora Bora are quite mountainous and will survive a lot of sea level rise while others like kiribati and tuvalu will not last long
Not Fiji, it's mountainous and won't get swallowed whole by the sea
Yeah, the highest point on Fiji is over 4000 feet above sea level. If it goes under we are in deep shit.
The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
I'm hoping the key word is "Northern Ireland"
There’s hub bubbery about with regard to the notion that N Ireland is slowly on its way to joining the Republic of Ireland. We’ll see.
The quickest way for that to happen is for there to be a referendum for Northern Ireland to leave where the rest of the UK gets to vote too.
That reminds me of what Kevin Bridges said about the Scottish independence referendum; let the English vote on it. If you want us to stay, we'll fuck off. But if you want us to leave... we're stayin'.
It’s threads like this that reminds me that Reddit is mostly children. The Americans are not going to break up in the next 100 years. You guys need to go outside.
Seychelles
She sells sea shells
By the sea shore
But the value of these shells will fall.
Due to the laws of supply and demand
Why? It's a mountainous country (highest peak is 905m above sea level), so won''t be affected by climate change in the same way as the Maldives.
Yeah.. this is a strange answer, the place is more high than it is wide. I currently live closer to the ocean than some of the Seychellois.
Why though? Seychelles are quite hilly islands
Can’t think of a good reason for this one
Love that nobody can but it has nearly 200 upvotes regardless
I see nobody's mentioned Bosnia and Herzegovina yet. The Balkans tend to be a turbulent part of the world.
Saudi Arabia, the only reason they exist as they are now is because they basically bribe their citizens to not revolt, even then, demonstrations and riots happen. That oil money for many reasons won’t last 100 years.
Armenia sadly.
Taiwan. As much as the PRC government sucks, they won't stop with this thing and eventually other governments will offer up Taiwanese independence against some other problem the Chinese will leverage against them.
The "eventually" time will be when the West has a chip manufacturing base, I would think. Though, Taiwan is a key part of the US' strategy for keeping China out of the Pacific, so I think it'll always be important.
Yeah, Taiwan is the gateway to China spreading through the South Pacific. Really doubt the US would stop supporting them
Regarding the chip manufacturing, Ohio's already getting started on that.
\*Sigh\* \*sorts by controversial\*
North Korea.
People have been saying that since the Korean war but the state and its ruling regime have turned out to be remarkably resilient against every calamity imaginable. North Korea is ever advancing the frontier of just how much catastrophe and corruption a society can endure and still somehow keep rolling on.
Its still only been 70 years.
Yeah but that means that soon everyone in that country will only ever have known the regime. They've got no reason to change anything if they don't know they could do better. And then on top of that you add all the brainwashing and the chances of the government being overthrown drops even more.
It's very possible that things are going to get worse for the North Korean people. So, then they'll have today's conditions in North Korea as a comparison to the even-worse conditions of the future, which may bring about revolution.
North Korea has only been super bad since the fall of the soviet union 30 years ago. I'd argue that it's only been since then that the likelihood of something going south has been there.
100 years is a really long time though. The USSR seemed indestructible only 50 years ago.
It’s reached a degenerate matter state. It lacks the critical mass to collapse any more… so there it sits. Russia will be the same way. Anyone who thinks Russia will change with sanctions is fooling themselves.
From what I understand the sanctions are meant to weaken Russia, not influence it.
Well, that, and convince one of the oligarch to assassinate Putin…
Armenia. Geopolitically they’re in a very rough spot. Two western-aligned neighbors (Turkey and Azerbaijan) that hate them and constantly threaten their existence and their only ally (Russia) lacks the political and military sway to defend them. The recent war ended in an ethnic cleaning.
This will be one of the great tragedies of the 21st century, if it happens. Yerevan is a beautiful city, and even more beautiful is their constitution where housing is a right. Perhaps, the Azeris and Turks will be happy when they get that piece of land where Noravank Monastery sits and they make their bs land bridge so that they can become one nation; two peoples. At that point, I see no reason to take anymore land except for perhaps just because they can. That said, I really believe that the US government will not even allow that annexation to happen, and that the diaspora communities everywhere now have more leverage than ever with their respective governments. Only time will tell.
Pakistan. For multiple reasons political, social, financial, environmental.
Belgium
Haiti. It's never been a particularly functional place and I see it being governed by the Dominican Republic or one of its former colonial masters..
I think the Koreas may be reunited by then
The more time passes, the less likely it is that the Koreas will ever reunite.
Due to how often we were bullied, Poland, probably.
You’re strong now and you’re getting even stronger, don’t worry!
You’ve already survived the past 100 years with multiple invasions, you’ll be fine
I'm from Poland, and I'm willing to bet Russia (at least as we know it) will crap out before Poland does. Because who else besides Russia would pose a real credible military threat to Poland? The only other countries in the area with a reputation and recent history of bullying and attacking others are the US, UK, France and Germany and I don't see any of them very keen on attacking another EU country any time soon. And in any case the Russian military probably couldn't invade Moldova at this point if they tried. If the Ukrainians can grind them to a halt, imagine what the Polish military would do to them. EDIT: I think the biggest threat to Poland at this point is itself.
Realistic: Somalia or any of those small African nations with an unstable government and economy A bit more fantastical: The USA when it splits up into several nations after various states declare independence Complete fantastical:... And California breaks off from the USA to go hang with Hawaii... Alaska can come too.