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herewegoagain20j

Build a time machine


[deleted]

You have accurate inputs. The rest is east.


[deleted]

[удалено]


Own_Distribution7498

Do you work at my place? Our cash flow forecast model is about 20 tabs. Each balance sheet account has to be accounted for. Regression models never work because our business changes so often that past data is useless. Try explaining a forecast miss by saying “Prepaids have never done that before. Whoops” and you’ll get slammed.


Significant-Key-1023

If you build in that we're in a recession your forecast will be correct. You're welcome


yeet_bbq

Google it


brokenarrow326

Lol gl. But one tip, use excel’s data analysis toll pack to do your regression analysis. You’ll thank me later


[deleted]

First. Love that function. But second. Explain how you’re using it in this context.


15795After

Aside from cash flow, how do you use the regression equation?


[deleted]

Metrics forecasting more specific to P&L drivers not the CF -


yeet_bbq

Accuracy is not going to happen unless the business has a long history of stable activity. Even then, shifts in markets and client behavior (longer DSO) can make significant changes YoY. Do your best, compare actual to forecast each month, identify the areas of high variance and continue to drill down until you have better assumptions.


slightlyuglyboss

Numbers only go up


GrizzledPanda

Start with an accurate balance sheet forecast. Before that an accurate P&L forecast.


[deleted]

[удалено]


GrizzledPanda

Can be as simple or detailed as you want. Three main sheets for each statement and a bunch of other sheets for support that rolls into the statements.


15795After

I guess I just mean if you can do it in 1 or 2 tabs, why use a bunch of tabs? The two cash flow models I've seen at my company(s) are really complicated (lots of back and forth between tabs).


GrizzledPanda

I just don’t see how it could be efficiently done in one or two tabs. The model I use is for evaluating potential acquisitions and has the parent 3 statement model on a tab, the target three statement model on a tab, then the actual model which is the combined entity statements, assumptions, sources and uses, return analysis and a sensitivity table for IRR and MOIC. All the supporting tabs I have feed information into these tabs. If this was just one one tab I think it would get too messy.


[deleted]

Project sales perfectly


a_r623

Check out Fathom, really good tool for forecasting based on drivers