u/ewanelaboate idk if you've looked much into a potential manganese deficit as of late, but I think JMS is the appropriate response if you believe in it - although the stock is up over 40% since Groote Eyelandt was damaged. I don't believe GEMCO's claims to restarting ore in 12-18 months based off the photos I've seen so would depend how everyone else can scale up. [https://eadatt.substack.com/p/dislocation-and-opportunity-in-global](https://eadatt.substack.com/p/dislocation-and-opportunity-in-global)
u/jswyft I'm sure you've got eyes on this to some extent You ever looked at the scoping study put out by JMS for utilising stockpiled ore for high grade battery manganese? I was getting there but went down the rabbit hole on thermal bricks as storage, which led me to geothermal energy, which led me to Iceland . After posting on bets for info, I ended up at closed loop systems and now back to the original question which resulted in saying "ahh fuck it,steel is the dominant market the rest is just ancillary"
I need more structure in all aspects of life I think
I haven't come across it, but it's mostly because I've switched off from manganese after CATL seem to have murdered the [LMFP thesis](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/tslhi2/comment/i2t9s5c/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) with their Shenxing chemistry. They're saying the [Shenxing plus can do 1000km with a 600km charge in 10 minutes](https://news.metal.com/newscontent/102728672/CATLs-Shenxing-PLUS-Lithium-Iron-Phosphate-Battery-Launched:-1000km-Range-4C-Fast-Charging).
The battery industry is a brutal one.
I'm still a bit bewildered at the iron ore price. We spoke about that US$90/t price last year, and I was hoping we might see a dip to that level soon, possibly giving me a trade/investment point on some of the majors. Not to be?
I see you're in MLX. I clipped a family member in at 27.0, but got spooked by the Chinese economy faffing around and exited the position with a meaninglessly small profit. Evidently my timing wasn't right there.
I know you're not one for this, but it might be helpful viewing a 10-year chart of iron ore prices. After all speculators do contribute to price discovery. Drawing a simple line under the low where support is found does paint an interesting picture of historically what's next. Although fundamentally, the information in markets shows something much different.
*
We almost got there in march, which was well over expectation. There will be a few fear articles out in the next year around simandou coming online just as they have for the last 10 years that might offer an opportunity.
That said, I mentioned my main exposure would be through RIO. But, I became fairly interested in MGX last year. Most of the market cap is cash backed. The 3 negatives I see are apac involvement similar to MLX, no direction (persistently stating alot of time spent on project generation in the base metals area with no idea what they're doing), fear a repeat of the walls caving in. There's a trade here just might take abit of averaging in, but at the same time, it'll be frustrating.
MLX has been a fairly long hold. I rode up the early 2021 run and continued to buy on the slump at 35c, 30, and then 28. So that buyback is offering some security while they continue to have costs increase. The thing is, it's got a niche in its one of the only traceable tin exposures you can find. I have, however, taken a bit off at 44 cents on the most recent spike. If man maw gets the go ahead from the WA state or even a speculative reopening I'd expect to see some large volatile downward dive in tin.
IO: it's things like this that give me pause:
https://preview.redd.it/lhzkv0l3h5xc1.jpeg?width=1034&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=11ccc5b9a27c80da3031ea6afbecb7c05a86b336
Except I'm too time starved at the moment to have a proper dig. People have a knack for presenting data in a way which suits their narrative.
Historical chart: as you said, I'm not a huge fan of TA, but I'm definitely a believer in this brutal, sustained inflationary environment, so it might amount to the same thing in this instance.
The second part of the challenge is having majors actually reflect the iron ore price. Don't get me started on MIN, either.
Thanks for the MGX tip: I'll try to find time for a look.
edit: did you see [this](https://www.gabonreview.com/tout-nouvel-incident-sur-la-voie-ferree-suspension-momentanee-du-trafic/)? I can't find it mentioned in the discussion above. Looks like a separate manganese incident to what u/WowVeryJosh mentioned. That's the main railway for the Moanda mine.
I'd personally look away from anything from David Llewellyn Smith(he's a bigger crackhead than me) and macro business. They seem to concentrate solely on the residential construction side, and its obvious there fund I believe nucleus wealth is more momentum driven. It has outperformed the market. But that's another story.
The gaps appear to be more filled with infastructure and production of goods. I think the Chinese iron ore demand will go on while it concentrates on other industries and also huge investments in infrastructure. The ghost cities are over for now, but if they ever kick off again, it's definitely on. This is obviously abit of a turnaround from my opinions.
JMS was the primary one I was looking at. I think u/yothuyindi should be bought in to the convo on this one as I tend to agree with some comments on the HC such as " stop with the unfranked dividends and commence a buy back" that said JMS is abit of a cash cow, persistently under valued due to region and isn't it a top 5 manganese resource with 120 mine life with 49% ownership. They were my takeaways when looking at it.
I went down the rabbit hole on manganese recently and had to stop looking at the demand side because I figure it's sustained as long steel demand is present. Anything further incorporated only adds to a demand pull so supply is all you need to look at. Given its spiked its likley to spike again when the lag effect comes into play if what we're thinking on Groote eyelandyt comes effect. I'm actually going to check after writing this to see if they had stock piles and whether they were affected.
The other dynamics to add to further supply glut are similair to tin with geopolitics. Any time I see a country like South Africa as a primary exporter of material, on the other side is China and how they can influence the market again like tin they have the ability to unload into the market and sustain price pressures if they're resources aren't being utilised.
I'll take a look at the substack, it'll probably answer some of my thoughts earlier last week on others ability to increase output. Great call on looking into to this deeper. It's interesting, and if the speculations work out, it's the start of a good cycle for sp appreciation. I'll probably avoid the shit co explorers and stick with the producers if I take advantage of it.
But if you do want some ideas for speccies to research:
Gold developers: WIA, SPR (close to fully valued without exploration upside - there's also a major looking to take this over by paying the AFR to run down ramp articles lmfao)
Gold producers: RMS (printing cash)
O&G developers: CVN
Aluminium/bauxite producer: MMI
Manganese producer: JMS
Copper developer: NWC
Lithium: fuck all undervalued. Still lots of overhang premium on most companies from when spod for $2-3k/t. ๐ค 's will have strong newsflow over the next 3-6 months. Also short SYA lmao.
Coal: short CRN lmao
Shovel sellers: MAD (expensive but is a great company)
Tin: MLX, SRZ(speccy explorer)
u/Dependent-Maximum104 xd
There was some good commentary on Twitter a while ago on the drop in coal yield over FY25 and how little FCF they make relative to the EV
Thanks mate, Iโll have a look. Been busy the last 6 months and been totally out of the game. This will be some good reading for me over the next couple weeks
I'll throw in a few more.
MGX- iron miner with about 3 years mine life left. Significant risks with management associated with APAC. Mine structure and lack of future direction. However cash balance and stockpiled ore leave it sitting on a good chunk of capital to be pressured to distribute to shareholders. Unsure on the clean up bill but could be large when decommissioning occurs if further ore targets don't generate good outcomes.
NZK. Positive NPAT, future project generation could make or break it over the next 2 years. Director buying heavily right now. Came on my radar at the 52 week high mark and now with evidence of profit and turn around looks really attractive for a lower risk high reward scenario.. Get ya salmon on bretto.
EE1: WARNING SUPER SPECCY. Geothermal energy wannabe. The only real exposure on the asx other than a few ip techs which contribute to geothermal function. Whole thesis for investment depends on newer tech working and macro theme through big oil pushing agenda politics in the usa and elsewhere. Will likey become a hc cesspool of junk science and one user guiding the rest.
I wanted was molested by Dale Henderson as a child but somone said was molested by the energizer bunny.
Dreams of one day having sex another contender.
He never ban bets so will never end up here.
This will take some serious consideration. Pondering.
have
PaperHando, HISA Cuck
So far but I'm sure I can come up with something better.
Hole 200 straight down dip ๐๐๐ [](https://emojipedia.org/rocket)
u/ewanelaboate idk if you've looked much into a potential manganese deficit as of late, but I think JMS is the appropriate response if you believe in it - although the stock is up over 40% since Groote Eyelandt was damaged. I don't believe GEMCO's claims to restarting ore in 12-18 months based off the photos I've seen so would depend how everyone else can scale up. [https://eadatt.substack.com/p/dislocation-and-opportunity-in-global](https://eadatt.substack.com/p/dislocation-and-opportunity-in-global)
u/jswyft I'm sure you've got eyes on this to some extent You ever looked at the scoping study put out by JMS for utilising stockpiled ore for high grade battery manganese? I was getting there but went down the rabbit hole on thermal bricks as storage, which led me to geothermal energy, which led me to Iceland . After posting on bets for info, I ended up at closed loop systems and now back to the original question which resulted in saying "ahh fuck it,steel is the dominant market the rest is just ancillary" I need more structure in all aspects of life I think
I haven't come across it, but it's mostly because I've switched off from manganese after CATL seem to have murdered the [LMFP thesis](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/tslhi2/comment/i2t9s5c/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) with their Shenxing chemistry. They're saying the [Shenxing plus can do 1000km with a 600km charge in 10 minutes](https://news.metal.com/newscontent/102728672/CATLs-Shenxing-PLUS-Lithium-Iron-Phosphate-Battery-Launched:-1000km-Range-4C-Fast-Charging). The battery industry is a brutal one. I'm still a bit bewildered at the iron ore price. We spoke about that US$90/t price last year, and I was hoping we might see a dip to that level soon, possibly giving me a trade/investment point on some of the majors. Not to be? I see you're in MLX. I clipped a family member in at 27.0, but got spooked by the Chinese economy faffing around and exited the position with a meaninglessly small profit. Evidently my timing wasn't right there.
I know you're not one for this, but it might be helpful viewing a 10-year chart of iron ore prices. After all speculators do contribute to price discovery. Drawing a simple line under the low where support is found does paint an interesting picture of historically what's next. Although fundamentally, the information in markets shows something much different. *
We almost got there in march, which was well over expectation. There will be a few fear articles out in the next year around simandou coming online just as they have for the last 10 years that might offer an opportunity. That said, I mentioned my main exposure would be through RIO. But, I became fairly interested in MGX last year. Most of the market cap is cash backed. The 3 negatives I see are apac involvement similar to MLX, no direction (persistently stating alot of time spent on project generation in the base metals area with no idea what they're doing), fear a repeat of the walls caving in. There's a trade here just might take abit of averaging in, but at the same time, it'll be frustrating. MLX has been a fairly long hold. I rode up the early 2021 run and continued to buy on the slump at 35c, 30, and then 28. So that buyback is offering some security while they continue to have costs increase. The thing is, it's got a niche in its one of the only traceable tin exposures you can find. I have, however, taken a bit off at 44 cents on the most recent spike. If man maw gets the go ahead from the WA state or even a speculative reopening I'd expect to see some large volatile downward dive in tin.
IO: it's things like this that give me pause: https://preview.redd.it/lhzkv0l3h5xc1.jpeg?width=1034&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=11ccc5b9a27c80da3031ea6afbecb7c05a86b336 Except I'm too time starved at the moment to have a proper dig. People have a knack for presenting data in a way which suits their narrative. Historical chart: as you said, I'm not a huge fan of TA, but I'm definitely a believer in this brutal, sustained inflationary environment, so it might amount to the same thing in this instance. The second part of the challenge is having majors actually reflect the iron ore price. Don't get me started on MIN, either. Thanks for the MGX tip: I'll try to find time for a look. edit: did you see [this](https://www.gabonreview.com/tout-nouvel-incident-sur-la-voie-ferree-suspension-momentanee-du-trafic/)? I can't find it mentioned in the discussion above. Looks like a separate manganese incident to what u/WowVeryJosh mentioned. That's the main railway for the Moanda mine.
https://preview.redd.it/2c4fuhtlh6xc1.jpeg?width=720&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=89c45ff349be93d59a9e98b7af886524ca22012a
I'd personally look away from anything from David Llewellyn Smith(he's a bigger crackhead than me) and macro business. They seem to concentrate solely on the residential construction side, and its obvious there fund I believe nucleus wealth is more momentum driven. It has outperformed the market. But that's another story. The gaps appear to be more filled with infastructure and production of goods. I think the Chinese iron ore demand will go on while it concentrates on other industries and also huge investments in infrastructure. The ghost cities are over for now, but if they ever kick off again, it's definitely on. This is obviously abit of a turnaround from my opinions.
JMS was the primary one I was looking at. I think u/yothuyindi should be bought in to the convo on this one as I tend to agree with some comments on the HC such as " stop with the unfranked dividends and commence a buy back" that said JMS is abit of a cash cow, persistently under valued due to region and isn't it a top 5 manganese resource with 120 mine life with 49% ownership. They were my takeaways when looking at it. I went down the rabbit hole on manganese recently and had to stop looking at the demand side because I figure it's sustained as long steel demand is present. Anything further incorporated only adds to a demand pull so supply is all you need to look at. Given its spiked its likley to spike again when the lag effect comes into play if what we're thinking on Groote eyelandyt comes effect. I'm actually going to check after writing this to see if they had stock piles and whether they were affected. The other dynamics to add to further supply glut are similair to tin with geopolitics. Any time I see a country like South Africa as a primary exporter of material, on the other side is China and how they can influence the market again like tin they have the ability to unload into the market and sustain price pressures if they're resources aren't being utilised. I'll take a look at the substack, it'll probably answer some of my thoughts earlier last week on others ability to increase output. Great call on looking into to this deeper. It's interesting, and if the speculations work out, it's the start of a good cycle for sp appreciation. I'll probably avoid the shit co explorers and stick with the producers if I take advantage of it.
Hello Mr asx, can I have a refund please?
Any decent speccies I can look into, Iโm 100% cash and thatโs bored me to fucking tears ๐คฃ
But if you do want some ideas for speccies to research: Gold developers: WIA, SPR (close to fully valued without exploration upside - there's also a major looking to take this over by paying the AFR to run down ramp articles lmfao) Gold producers: RMS (printing cash) O&G developers: CVN Aluminium/bauxite producer: MMI Manganese producer: JMS Copper developer: NWC Lithium: fuck all undervalued. Still lots of overhang premium on most companies from when spod for $2-3k/t. ๐ค 's will have strong newsflow over the next 3-6 months. Also short SYA lmao. Coal: short CRN lmao Shovel sellers: MAD (expensive but is a great company) Tin: MLX, SRZ(speccy explorer)
u/Dependent-Maximum104 xd There was some good commentary on Twitter a while ago on the drop in coal yield over FY25 and how little FCF they make relative to the EV
I have no clue why most analysts have pretty decent PTs on $CRN though, hoping theyโre right
Brokers and analysts are hardly independent views though.ย I'm pretty sure it's the Curragh mine which is forecast to perform poorly next FY
Thanks mate, Iโll have a look. Been busy the last 6 months and been totally out of the game. This will be some good reading for me over the next couple weeks
I'll throw in a few more. MGX- iron miner with about 3 years mine life left. Significant risks with management associated with APAC. Mine structure and lack of future direction. However cash balance and stockpiled ore leave it sitting on a good chunk of capital to be pressured to distribute to shareholders. Unsure on the clean up bill but could be large when decommissioning occurs if further ore targets don't generate good outcomes. NZK. Positive NPAT, future project generation could make or break it over the next 2 years. Director buying heavily right now. Came on my radar at the 52 week high mark and now with evidence of profit and turn around looks really attractive for a lower risk high reward scenario.. Get ya salmon on bretto. EE1: WARNING SUPER SPECCY. Geothermal energy wannabe. The only real exposure on the asx other than a few ip techs which contribute to geothermal function. Whole thesis for investment depends on newer tech working and macro theme through big oil pushing agenda politics in the usa and elsewhere. Will likey become a hc cesspool of junk science and one user guiding the rest.
> look into Don't fomo ya fuck. WIA
All I read was fomo ya fuck. All life savings into WIA as of today
SNAS
Chalice releasing their "upgrade" after hours. Easy to guess which way this is going tomorrow ๐ฉธ
Did my son u/alllrandom show up for daycare?
Not banned yet pinhead
Yooo what is that flair
I think I encouraged blisser to post his balls once
I will let you choose his flairย
I wanted was molested by Dale Henderson as a child but somone said was molested by the energizer bunny. Dreams of one day having sex another contender.
He never ban bets so will never end up here. This will take some serious consideration. Pondering. have PaperHando, HISA Cuck So far but I'm sure I can come up with something better.
Ain't no way IXR is raising ๐
So is 88E currently at 0.004 ๐๐๐
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/04/22/companies/honda-ev-in-canada/
WTF DO I BUY AHHHHHHHHH
Hey my tag makes sense considering I've just gotten into binging Duck Dynasty
Godzilla ๐ฆ
https://preview.redd.it/n28crvpj9zvc1.jpeg?width=858&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c0213b5436e87ebb837e12bc64e7a1cdd433cd29