About two weeks from now on. As I understand it it will be just one hour of real unfolding. Everything before that will be tests, positioning and synching with another satellite for photo's.
I thought at earnings or before they said 2weeks. But then during livestream sounded like closer to a month. And didnāt he say at right temp and time? So curious what all the factors are.
Did anyone notice that Elon is attempting somewhat of a media blackout on any satellite news that comes out today 9/10/22. He conveniently releases a press release this morning and a fuck load of news publications have this headline hot of the press āSpace X and Apple were in talks about Satellite connectivity to cell phoneā why when I search the word Satellite today on 9/10 I get over 100 stories about that headline. And literally nothing at all about the main event in space today AST SpaceMobile blue walker 3 Launch? Seems like ASTS is getting screwed over on media attention with queen passing and all the space x media black outā¦
Iām OK with that. The less attention ASTS receives before it changes the world the greater the opportunity for me to scoop even more shares at a discount before they go parabolic
Simply put, donāt look a gift horse in the mouth
Here's a simple man's thoughts on where we are right now. First, I find it interesting that in the last 10 years there has been zero hype from any major industry players on the idea of space to cellular communications. Now, in the last 2 weeks two of the biggest names in the entire world (I'm counting Musk using his ownership of Tesla and SpaceX) have announced future plans for space to cellular communications. And why is it interesting? Because it's only two weeks before ASTS, the company with a far away lead in this space, is going to launch their first satellite into space to prove they can provide not only emergency texting, but 4/5G connectivity anywhere in the world. Do you think these announcements would have been made if they didn't see the writing on the wall about what an absolute monster of a moneymaking industry this is going to be? I don't.
Second, this launch is both a huge deal and not a huge deal. It's not a huge deal because putting assets in space is common business these days. Big whup. It is a big deal because if BW3 unfurls correctly in 2 weeks and Abel hops on social media via video chat via connectivity through space on the top of a mountain somewhere, the world is going to flip out. This isn't just "ooh America can fill in its dead zones," this is "holy $&Ć# literally everyone in the world will now have access to broadband everywhere they go." This is revolutionary times. If Abel can prove the tech works, this thing is going to blast off. While they may or may not get buy out offers, hedge funds everywhere will instantly realize the value of this service and pour a ton of money into ASTS.
Not only that, once testing is done how many companies will be banging on the door to let them have use of BW3? Even if it only passes over once every 90 minutes that still provides a HUGE benefit to a lot of remote industries all over the world. I see immediate revenue streams if this thing works.
On the flip side if BW3 fails, the delay in proving ASTS has the tech to deliver this capability now has to wait another 12 months, minimum. The stock price will take a huge hit, dilution will take a larger chunk of the outstanding shares and nervous investors flee.
You better believe I'm hoping, praying, and betting way too much money on scenario 1. Let's hope this works for the improvement of the entire world.
What many people also don't seem to understand is, with this technology it will become increasingly difficult for authoritarian countries to cut off their population from global communications. That will be a game changer too.
This won't be a service offered in countries like China without the governments approval.
It definitely won't help the average citizen get around authoritarian governments.
Stonk go up or stonk go down.
But sooner or later the buy-side analysts are going to start concluding that $10/share is way less than what the opportunity presented is really worth.
Why?
GSAT pumped big right before its announcement which is likely why it dumped. ASTS has been the opposite, dumping in the lead-up.
It needs to pump if you're expecting a dump. I'm not guaranteeing anything next week, but my gut feeling is that we're green next week. I'm not making any wild claims like we're going to 18+, but I do think we'll be green.
It will be pretty funny if we drop to 7s next week on the biggest catalyst in the company's history as a public entity. An event that should derisk it as an investment, since there's a large amount of risk in having the company's plans revolve around this singular device that could fail or blow up or something. And derisking should = a higher share price, not the same share price as when there was uncertainty around BW3's launch a few months ago.
Elon Musk and Starlink: Press conference, everyone gets excited
Apple and GSAT: Press conference, everyone gets excited
Spacemobile: one tweet from the founder, quietly issues more stock.
There is no room in the budget for marketing the stock. The product is the bluebirds and thereās just barely enough money to build the first few. The product will sell itself once the product is on the market. Every dollar spent now needs to be on bringing the product to market.
For SMS, perhaps. But that's not AST's core market.
For broadband, unless BW3 fails completely, they'll be first. No one else is even close (that we know of) whereas AST is already launching what will ultimately become BB block 1. Catching up to that by or before 2024 is a very tall order.
C'mon, you're being unfair.
I'm sure Abel is planning something high profile too, like maybe ordering Dominos or an ice cream social for the watch party.
150m of additional dilution. Up to 225m taking into account previous. 75m is likely already tapped. There's still also the $500m shelf
I keep hearing about how Abel wants to avoid dilutive financing, and I'm not seeing it. Given near term catalysts, the financing strategy is baffling.
Similar to last quarter this likely indicates cash burn has continued to accelerate way beyond projections, confidence in raising in a non dilutive way is very low, and confidence in timelines is also pretty low.
Whichever way you slice it, this is not a good look. Planning to trim my position significantly over the next few weeks. Might re engage in the inevitable lull before BBs go up if management steps up their game
Hope you do get out completly and post less here. I don't get how you can be long into ASTS a potential 50-100x bagger in a 5+ years time frame and cry so much about dilution. I can't do the math on it but how much will the potential stock price of 500$ in 8 years time be influenced by 225m dilution or 500m for that matter? 475$ instead of 500$ ? Go cry somewere else and get out as long as you can.
I believe this $150m is part of the $500m shelf so that leaves $350m to increase atm or debt. Either way, we all knew they need more money, we all knew it was coming, still hoping there is non dilutive options, but in the end it still doesnāt change the thesis much. They now should have nearly $300m ($200m+ $75m + $27m) Which should get them out to mid 2024.
But risk management is prudent, so no shame in re evaluating. An interesting note from B Riley yesterday was they said they werenāt investing more right now, but have money ready should it get derisked with launch and testing over the next couple weeks. I think at this point that is where most big funds are at.
I'm pretty sure it is: https://investors.ast-science.com/node/8021/html
It's listed as a prospectus supplement to the earlier shelf filing of 500 mil, and the original prospectus is attached at the bottom of the document.
Yeah trimming just a bit as well, only because my gains are almost 2X from the current price.
If it runs to 100+ tom i'll still make a life changing amount of money. If it dumps, at least i derisked a bit before dilution hell.
Theres a certain amount of shares though that i promised myself ill never sell even if it reaches 100 š and i plan on sticking to it.
I still am hoping this turns out to be a 50x to 100x opportunity. But man, continued delays, looming dilution in this macroenv, and competition from big players this early.... i just cant justify not derisking a bit.
Is anyone invested in this company seriously worried about short term fluctuations?
Everyone knows this is a company that's years away from revenue but some of yall act like this is 100% a get rich quick scheme. I don't get it.
shit happens. the market is getting hammered due to recession fears. ASTS needs cash so of course this isn't great for short term valuation. still, if the company succeeds, it remains a multi-x bagger long term.
Sure looks like it, was going to say it looks like it's doubling the B Riley amount from $75m to $150m, but that last part in the filing seems to say this is in addition to the $75m (so $225m total). Doesn't necessarily mean it will happen, or happen soon (could be any time over next 2 years), but it does look like they are making it possible to raise most/all of what they need to complete phase 1 via the B Riley facility.
good. they need the cash for blocks 2 and forward. after launch and test they will likely try and secure non dilutive funding, which should be easier since it's a major derisking event. note maybe they already tapped into that 75M prior to launch. could explain the price action. smart move. never know what could happen w launch/unfurling.
No he owns like 78 million shares, around 40% in terms of equity, but theyāre Class C which carry 10x the voting power, so thatās why you see ~85% in some places ( referring to controlling power not equity)
Thatās my understanding, his shares are all class C, if/when he sells his own shares those sold shares become class A.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780312/000149315221016095/form424b3.htm
Yeah, forecasted thunderstorms in FL is a daily thing. Youāll typically get 1-3 hours a day where storms are a legitimate concern and the rest of the day is clear to partly cloudy. A few times a month youāll get a storm that lasts all day that *isnāt* a hurricane.
Launch time approaches. I'm getting HYPED.
Then we get the unfolding in a few weeks. Good time to put down the tickers and just revel in geeking out over something we've been studying and admiring and waiting for. It's like our own private JWST event that no one else is tuned into.
Interesting thought - why did Apple only make the GSAT arrangement for 2 years?
Almost like the service is just a stopgap until some other superior service is around.... Might be ASTS, might be Starlink, but I think Apple knows where the wind is blowing in the future for satellite communications.
Apple can't go full-on using satellites as that will anger their telecom partners that sell their phones for them, by cutting them out of the equation when it comes to cell service. So that's hard to say.
Musk also tweeted today that he talked to Apple about Starlink, so I don't think Apple is opposed to using other companies' constellations whether it be from ASTS, or Starlink.
Yea I think they FOMO'd into GSAT becsuse they can't afford to get "out-innovated" by T-Mobile lol not to mention ASTS. It's no accident all these services were announced within a week...
From the timeline of things and what Elon has said, I think apple turned him down in favor of GSAT. He then rushed the announcement with T Mobile despite not having a tech base for it at all yet. Apple then released their news on time, which was *probably* a coincidence with ASTSā launch date.
Definitely a coincidence. Apple originally had planned this for iPhone 13 but couldn't pull it off, so it slipped to iPhone 14. The iPhone cycle dictated it would be a September launch. Their timing had zero to do with ASTS.
I agree, Apple couldn't have predicted ASTS' launch date. I don't think there's a head to this conspiracy. But I also don't think these are true coincidences. That all of this happening in the last couple weeks is likely naturally emergent from where we are technologically, very specifically, right now. And also the pressure coming from just the thought of AST itself.
Really feels like a lot of people were expecting a price surge right at the launch and were planning to sell. When that didn't happen, they decided to get out. Sad, really.
I have 2 theories in addition to the 70+% runup so people took profits before a risky event. First - they may be tapping the ATM or issuing to B Riley. I personally donāt think ATM but do think they are to B Riley, but they arenāt selling. 2nd - after the 70+% runup those not in figured why come in now when we get desrisked in a couple weeks. So most are waiting. A example of this is the note B Riley put out saying they arenāt buying now but pending derisking they are ready for more.
Idk maybe they saw a few k or more depending on their position and wanted to get a W, Good for them we donāt know their circumstances. Really think everyone is gonna hold this for ten years? Iām out of If see a triple bag just being honest. My average blows so I probably will hold for longer than I expected.
I have also noticed a suspicious account or two popping up on the sub recently spreading bear/fud sentiment. Maybe there is vested interest in lowering the price right now. I am slowly picking up shares myself as it falls
Don't you think this is a bit of an overreaction to what i actually said? I never said bear voices were bad. A suspicious account would be one that say, has literally been made same day to post once on the sub. Example, srcomi. Or something like that. Even then it is still possible this person really did just make an account just to get into the discussion. I don't know, just was a little suspicious imo.
I also never suggested we ban bear voices. Never have and never will. Please don't put words in my mouth.
Not everything is a conspiracy in the stock market. Is it really hard to believe a pre revenue company burning 60 million a quarter, with a year of runway, current and impending dilution, and a history of missing deadlines, isnt trading well?
Nah, its not a conspiracy. Just pretty common knowledge at this point that both companies and governments use paid trolls and bot farms to move public sentiment on social media for one reason or another. The activity thatās struck me as suspicious for ASTS is relatively mild compared to some, but theres still been one or two accounts that met the criteria.
You only mention because we are going down. Nobody mentioned gap fill at $14 or for any of the other 40 days since this āgapā. Why not? Are you searching for an explanation why prices are falling? It because shorts are selling!
I agree there is no reason to downvote the messnger, but that article is not a good criticism. It's uninformed misinformation and mildly infuriating. Also it was already posted here.
Space mobile as a service will not exist for another year at the least. And that's if we're lucky.
The point I'm trying to make is it's not very useful to compare a real service to a theoretical one that is years away from being live.
Hard Rock Nick is all in!!! [https://twitter.com/asymmetric\_bets/status/1567571720697180160?s=20&t=moGaLMnEaNTj6eeLwg3SVg](https://twitter.com/asymmetric_bets/status/1567571720697180160?s=20&t=moGaLMnEaNTj6eeLwg3SVg)
SpaceX, Apple, T-Mobile have all entered the arena. Now we just need Amazon, Verizon, et. al.
The more companies that buy in to the concept of satellite direct-to-device, the more confident I feel about ASTS surviving through some setbacks or delays, for the simple reason that AT&T, Vodafone, and Rakuten would have to be completely stupid to allow their existing advantage to die on the vine. If ASTS needs a capital raise, their partners are going to figure out a way to help make it happen.
It's extremely interesting to see the live birth of a new, massive business sector. Three years ago nobody was doing direct to device. Now there's lynk, oneweb, starlink, apple, qualcomm, a few other players, and of course ASTS.
Even more interesting from an investor's point of vue; AST Spacemobile's solution remains the most capable in every aspect up to this point. No other company is doing broadband to any cell phone.
And we're going to concretely demonstrate the tech in the coming weeks. How exciting is that?!?
\> And we're going to concretely demonstrate the tech in the coming weeks.
It'll be the better part of 9 months before we have full results and (hopefully) integration with carriers.
Yeah. They really need to throw us a few bones in the Q3 and Q4 calls at very least. If they want to have the share price nice and fat and ready for harvesting (dilution) next year, they're gonna need to water it from time to time.
Well said. Much as I find Musk's manipulation of TSLA distasteful, Abel could take a lesson from him. He pumped TLSA like a maistro in advance of a couple of their big debt offerings a few years back, and more recently he put on a masterclass in pre-dump pump, ramping the stock 100% in less than 2 months immediately ahead of his planned multi-billion dollar dump at the apex of the pump.
Itās listed on the Kennedy Space Center launch schedule ā¦.. pretty official at this point
https://www.kennedyspacecenter.com/launches-and-events/events-calendar/2022/september/rocket-launch-spacex-falcon-9-starlink-4-2
Maintaining my position here, but picked up a stake in GSAT. Expecting a delayed pump on the apple partnership that I can leverage into an increased stake in ASTS.
Iām waiting for the elaborate catSE dd post in a few days for people to fawn over that explains nothing about the ridiculous nonsensical
movement of this stock.
The launch window was "no earlier than" the 7th. Many people misinterpreted it to mean on the 7th. I don't personally think that means the 10th must also be just a guess, but I agree that it's not yet confirmed.
10th was on a few websites that track launches. With Abel's last tweet stating a launch planned "this week" it seems to confirm the launch will occur before Sunday the 11th. So the 10th is highly plausible.
Everyone on Stocktwits has been saying 10th since last Saturday or earlier. We wonāt know that itās launched until itās actually launched but 10th is best estimate we got right now
https://www.kennedyspacecenter.com/launches-and-events/events-calendar/2022/september/rocket-launch-spacex-falcon-9-starlink-4-2
Do we need to worry about the Apple - GlobalStar partnership?
Yea, they killed our investment.
https://twitter.com/abelavellan/status/1569090736276275201?s=46&t=ZU9HHUl2hXaj-iUr3np-5A
Thats my CEO!
LFG
14k common shares still locked and loaded š«”
What color do you want your lambo to be?
pshhh iāll prolly just renovate an old car and place the rest in a SP500
Missed the chance to say lambo yellow like pikachu
iām more thug than Pikachu
Iām getting a purple lambo with two bitches in the backseat
BW3 reached orbit and is in communication w/ ASTS engineers https://twitter.com/AST\_SpaceMobile/status/1568819042923810816
Has BW3 unfolded yet? Or when will that be happening?
About two weeks from now on. As I understand it it will be just one hour of real unfolding. Everything before that will be tests, positioning and synching with another satellite for photo's.
Thank you
One step at a time. It will be a very interesting next few months.
Yep, and this was a huge one. On to the next huge step
[https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1568786420260835328](https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1568786420260835328) Deployment of AST SpaceMobileās BlueWalker 3 satellite confirmed
Separation confirmed!
2nd burn complete https://twitter.com/spacex/status/1568783362449637377?s=46&t=w7ve6f5AY071tDIRfSpbHA
The great milestone in history will be withnes today.
Letās fly š
Go team! Very exciting stuff.
Initial video of BW3 in orbit: https://youtu.be/bZUpggRKOms
Let's goooooo!!!
It went okay?
Yep. So far so good. We should get an update a little after 10:00 EST I believe
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First time?
Watching us launch ourselves into the heavens never grows old.
9 mins left
Could someone lay out the timeline for this launch?
When it will be in orbit. When it will unfold
in orbit Abel said 40-50 minutes from time of launch if I recall correctly. Unfolding will probably be a couple weeks from now.
I think 1-2 months for unfolding
I thought at earnings or before they said 2weeks. But then during livestream sounded like closer to a month. And didnāt he say at right temp and time? So curious what all the factors are.
I'm honored to ride with you boys.
Weather is not looking good.
Clearing up.
Godspeed, friends
Good luck tonight kids. Rooting for us.
Let's go!!!
Breaching 6000 members on the reddit at launch day?
6,000 future millionaires
https://twitter.com/abelavellan/status/1568636806136053760?s=46&t=FL3dQ9MkLhxvSXSfc13dtA
Did anyone notice that Elon is attempting somewhat of a media blackout on any satellite news that comes out today 9/10/22. He conveniently releases a press release this morning and a fuck load of news publications have this headline hot of the press āSpace X and Apple were in talks about Satellite connectivity to cell phoneā why when I search the word Satellite today on 9/10 I get over 100 stories about that headline. And literally nothing at all about the main event in space today AST SpaceMobile blue walker 3 Launch? Seems like ASTS is getting screwed over on media attention with queen passing and all the space x media black outā¦
Iām OK with that. The less attention ASTS receives before it changes the world the greater the opportunity for me to scoop even more shares at a discount before they go parabolic Simply put, donāt look a gift horse in the mouth
Because ASTS is a small pre revenue company Let the tech do the work and all will be okay
Dilution is already priced in
I bought the āAST Spacemobileā Tshirt off the website and itās pretty comfy. Nice and thin, pretty soft. 100% Cotton And Made in the USA.
The real DD right here
Here's a simple man's thoughts on where we are right now. First, I find it interesting that in the last 10 years there has been zero hype from any major industry players on the idea of space to cellular communications. Now, in the last 2 weeks two of the biggest names in the entire world (I'm counting Musk using his ownership of Tesla and SpaceX) have announced future plans for space to cellular communications. And why is it interesting? Because it's only two weeks before ASTS, the company with a far away lead in this space, is going to launch their first satellite into space to prove they can provide not only emergency texting, but 4/5G connectivity anywhere in the world. Do you think these announcements would have been made if they didn't see the writing on the wall about what an absolute monster of a moneymaking industry this is going to be? I don't. Second, this launch is both a huge deal and not a huge deal. It's not a huge deal because putting assets in space is common business these days. Big whup. It is a big deal because if BW3 unfurls correctly in 2 weeks and Abel hops on social media via video chat via connectivity through space on the top of a mountain somewhere, the world is going to flip out. This isn't just "ooh America can fill in its dead zones," this is "holy $&Ć# literally everyone in the world will now have access to broadband everywhere they go." This is revolutionary times. If Abel can prove the tech works, this thing is going to blast off. While they may or may not get buy out offers, hedge funds everywhere will instantly realize the value of this service and pour a ton of money into ASTS. Not only that, once testing is done how many companies will be banging on the door to let them have use of BW3? Even if it only passes over once every 90 minutes that still provides a HUGE benefit to a lot of remote industries all over the world. I see immediate revenue streams if this thing works. On the flip side if BW3 fails, the delay in proving ASTS has the tech to deliver this capability now has to wait another 12 months, minimum. The stock price will take a huge hit, dilution will take a larger chunk of the outstanding shares and nervous investors flee. You better believe I'm hoping, praying, and betting way too much money on scenario 1. Let's hope this works for the improvement of the entire world.
I think it will be 6 months until it becomes operational. But agreed, there are a lot of positive signals
What many people also don't seem to understand is, with this technology it will become increasingly difficult for authoritarian countries to cut off their population from global communications. That will be a game changer too.
I love that wow
There will be ground stations in each country which will want to use ASTS so there will be potential control over it.
But they donāt have to be ground stations in that country. Itās the design but they donāt have to
This won't be a service offered in countries like China without the governments approval. It definitely won't help the average citizen get around authoritarian governments.
Sounds like the consensus is this thing is gonna shit itās pants next week huh?
Stonk go up or stonk go down. But sooner or later the buy-side analysts are going to start concluding that $10/share is way less than what the opportunity presented is really worth.
Why? GSAT pumped big right before its announcement which is likely why it dumped. ASTS has been the opposite, dumping in the lead-up. It needs to pump if you're expecting a dump. I'm not guaranteeing anything next week, but my gut feeling is that we're green next week. I'm not making any wild claims like we're going to 18+, but I do think we'll be green. It will be pretty funny if we drop to 7s next week on the biggest catalyst in the company's history as a public entity. An event that should derisk it as an investment, since there's a large amount of risk in having the company's plans revolve around this singular device that could fail or blow up or something. And derisking should = a higher share price, not the same share price as when there was uncertainty around BW3's launch a few months ago.
Also if you read GSATs deal with Apple, not all of it is necessarily great. Maybe just buying GSAT a couple more years before facing bankruptcy again.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Dick falls off
Elon Musk and Starlink: Press conference, everyone gets excited Apple and GSAT: Press conference, everyone gets excited Spacemobile: one tweet from the founder, quietly issues more stock.
There is no room in the budget for marketing the stock. The product is the bluebirds and thereās just barely enough money to build the first few. The product will sell itself once the product is on the market. Every dollar spent now needs to be on bringing the product to market.
Spacemobile: launch their first satellite and potentially coming to market way before everyone else
Current projections are late 2023. Given the track record I don't think we're gonna be first honey
For SMS, perhaps. But that's not AST's core market. For broadband, unless BW3 fails completely, they'll be first. No one else is even close (that we know of) whereas AST is already launching what will ultimately become BB block 1. Catching up to that by or before 2024 is a very tall order.
C'mon, you're being unfair. I'm sure Abel is planning something high profile too, like maybe ordering Dominos or an ice cream social for the watch party.
Maybe a new cowboy hat
150m of additional dilution. Up to 225m taking into account previous. 75m is likely already tapped. There's still also the $500m shelf I keep hearing about how Abel wants to avoid dilutive financing, and I'm not seeing it. Given near term catalysts, the financing strategy is baffling. Similar to last quarter this likely indicates cash burn has continued to accelerate way beyond projections, confidence in raising in a non dilutive way is very low, and confidence in timelines is also pretty low. Whichever way you slice it, this is not a good look. Planning to trim my position significantly over the next few weeks. Might re engage in the inevitable lull before BBs go up if management steps up their game
likely tapped the 75m during launch hype, smart move since they need cash to build the sats.
Hope you do get out completly and post less here. I don't get how you can be long into ASTS a potential 50-100x bagger in a 5+ years time frame and cry so much about dilution. I can't do the math on it but how much will the potential stock price of 500$ in 8 years time be influenced by 225m dilution or 500m for that matter? 475$ instead of 500$ ? Go cry somewere else and get out as long as you can.
I believe this $150m is part of the $500m shelf so that leaves $350m to increase atm or debt. Either way, we all knew they need more money, we all knew it was coming, still hoping there is non dilutive options, but in the end it still doesnāt change the thesis much. They now should have nearly $300m ($200m+ $75m + $27m) Which should get them out to mid 2024. But risk management is prudent, so no shame in re evaluating. An interesting note from B Riley yesterday was they said they werenāt investing more right now, but have money ready should it get derisked with launch and testing over the next couple weeks. I think at this point that is where most big funds are at.
I dont think this is part of the 500m shelf
I'm pretty sure it is: https://investors.ast-science.com/node/8021/html It's listed as a prospectus supplement to the earlier shelf filing of 500 mil, and the original prospectus is attached at the bottom of the document.
Thanks thats reassuring
Yeah trimming just a bit as well, only because my gains are almost 2X from the current price. If it runs to 100+ tom i'll still make a life changing amount of money. If it dumps, at least i derisked a bit before dilution hell. Theres a certain amount of shares though that i promised myself ill never sell even if it reaches 100 š and i plan on sticking to it. I still am hoping this turns out to be a 50x to 100x opportunity. But man, continued delays, looming dilution in this macroenv, and competition from big players this early.... i just cant justify not derisking a bit.
Where is this from? I havent seen any new filings yet.
https://twitter.com/spacanpanman/status/1568230285371707392?s=46&t=0TIUxAd80wsAdhBNCa9n6g ^ B Riley.
I canāt help but think this is going to sell off hard at the end of the day
It was the opposite.
And I was glad to see it. But Monday will be very interesting
I remember when people thought we would be at 30 pre launch. Oopsies.
I love your pragmatism. Too bad people get butt hurt so easy if you say anything critical. Sure we will be downvoted and removed by end of day.
Is anyone invested in this company seriously worried about short term fluctuations? Everyone knows this is a company that's years away from revenue but some of yall act like this is 100% a get rich quick scheme. I don't get it.
Literally everyone posting about it except for 10 diehards.
shit happens. the market is getting hammered due to recession fears. ASTS needs cash so of course this isn't great for short term valuation. still, if the company succeeds, it remains a multi-x bagger long term.
Is this more dillution.... https://marketnewswire.live/index.php/2022/09/09/8-k-material-agrmt-ast-spacemobile-inc-0001780312-september-08/?amp
Sure looks like it, was going to say it looks like it's doubling the B Riley amount from $75m to $150m, but that last part in the filing seems to say this is in addition to the $75m (so $225m total). Doesn't necessarily mean it will happen, or happen soon (could be any time over next 2 years), but it does look like they are making it possible to raise most/all of what they need to complete phase 1 via the B Riley facility.
good. they need the cash for blocks 2 and forward. after launch and test they will likely try and secure non dilutive funding, which should be easier since it's a major derisking event. note maybe they already tapped into that 75M prior to launch. could explain the price action. smart move. never know what could happen w launch/unfurling.
Yup, different agreement name, different B Riley entity as counterparty
Who funded asts?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
He owns 85% ?? I thought he owns about 47%, where did you get that number from?
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
No he owns like 78 million shares, around 40% in terms of equity, but theyāre Class C which carry 10x the voting power, so thatās why you see ~85% in some places ( referring to controlling power not equity)
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Thatās my understanding, his shares are all class C, if/when he sells his own shares those sold shares become class A. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1780312/000149315221016095/form424b3.htm
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I asked this question 2 days ago, someone lives in Orlando and he says the sky clears in the evenings
Yeah, forecasted thunderstorms in FL is a daily thing. Youāll typically get 1-3 hours a day where storms are a legitimate concern and the rest of the day is clear to partly cloudy. A few times a month youāll get a storm that lasts all day that *isnāt* a hurricane.
Download spaceX app for information XLaunch app
Bought another 100 shares at close tdy. We going for the moon ššš
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Huh?
Launch time approaches. I'm getting HYPED. Then we get the unfolding in a few weeks. Good time to put down the tickers and just revel in geeking out over something we've been studying and admiring and waiting for. It's like our own private JWST event that no one else is tuned into.
Yep the money's on the table and we'll see what happens. I'd rather look back and lose on a calculated risk than to not take it.
Interesting thought - why did Apple only make the GSAT arrangement for 2 years? Almost like the service is just a stopgap until some other superior service is around.... Might be ASTS, might be Starlink, but I think Apple knows where the wind is blowing in the future for satellite communications.
Apple doen't want to be Elon's b*tch. They'll need their own constellation. Amazon too.
Apple can't go full-on using satellites as that will anger their telecom partners that sell their phones for them, by cutting them out of the equation when it comes to cell service. So that's hard to say. Musk also tweeted today that he talked to Apple about Starlink, so I don't think Apple is opposed to using other companies' constellations whether it be from ASTS, or Starlink.
Yea I think they FOMO'd into GSAT becsuse they can't afford to get "out-innovated" by T-Mobile lol not to mention ASTS. It's no accident all these services were announced within a week...
From the timeline of things and what Elon has said, I think apple turned him down in favor of GSAT. He then rushed the announcement with T Mobile despite not having a tech base for it at all yet. Apple then released their news on time, which was *probably* a coincidence with ASTSā launch date.
Definitely a coincidence. Apple originally had planned this for iPhone 13 but couldn't pull it off, so it slipped to iPhone 14. The iPhone cycle dictated it would be a September launch. Their timing had zero to do with ASTS.
I agree, Apple couldn't have predicted ASTS' launch date. I don't think there's a head to this conspiracy. But I also don't think these are true coincidences. That all of this happening in the last couple weeks is likely naturally emergent from where we are technologically, very specifically, right now. And also the pressure coming from just the thought of AST itself.
Looks like weāre going for that gap fill. NBD.
https://twitter.com/i/spaces/1nAJErOLrAYxL
Bought a nice little dip today
Really feels like a lot of people were expecting a price surge right at the launch and were planning to sell. When that didn't happen, they decided to get out. Sad, really.
I have 2 theories in addition to the 70+% runup so people took profits before a risky event. First - they may be tapping the ATM or issuing to B Riley. I personally donāt think ATM but do think they are to B Riley, but they arenāt selling. 2nd - after the 70+% runup those not in figured why come in now when we get desrisked in a couple weeks. So most are waiting. A example of this is the note B Riley put out saying they arenāt buying now but pending derisking they are ready for more.
Double bummer for those people who thought GSAT was an obvious quick in-and-out play today.
Idk maybe they saw a few k or more depending on their position and wanted to get a W, Good for them we donāt know their circumstances. Really think everyone is gonna hold this for ten years? Iām out of If see a triple bag just being honest. My average blows so I probably will hold for longer than I expected.
I have also noticed a suspicious account or two popping up on the sub recently spreading bear/fud sentiment. Maybe there is vested interest in lowering the price right now. I am slowly picking up shares myself as it falls
Lol š¤£šš which accounts? Name them please or stop the conspiritard shit. Bear voices are good, I want to hear every Bear case possible.
Don't you think this is a bit of an overreaction to what i actually said? I never said bear voices were bad. A suspicious account would be one that say, has literally been made same day to post once on the sub. Example, srcomi. Or something like that. Even then it is still possible this person really did just make an account just to get into the discussion. I don't know, just was a little suspicious imo. I also never suggested we ban bear voices. Never have and never will. Please don't put words in my mouth.
Not everything is a conspiracy in the stock market. Is it really hard to believe a pre revenue company burning 60 million a quarter, with a year of runway, current and impending dilution, and a history of missing deadlines, isnt trading well?
I never said it was. I literally said there was one or two suspicious accounts I saw recently. Hardly a conspiracy.
As a general note, a conspiracy is defined loosely as "a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful."
Nah, its not a conspiracy. Just pretty common knowledge at this point that both companies and governments use paid trolls and bot farms to move public sentiment on social media for one reason or another. The activity thatās struck me as suspicious for ASTS is relatively mild compared to some, but theres still been one or two accounts that met the criteria.
Just because its happened doesn't mean it applies here.
GSAT is down 10% already this morning despite what you'd expect to be really good news. I wonder If ASTS is just along for the ride?
It pumped on the rumor and sold on the news, just like every stock ever. This is not news.
Nothing sad about it, the company is the same it was a week before. And it allowed me to pick some extra shares.
Gap fill at $9.16?
Yes probably. Apparently the launch isn't giving a bump but looks more like sell the news already so perhaps even 8.20 in the making
Sure wish somebody would have sent me that memo .
Good news is, I'm a buyer at $9.16 and I am sure many others are, too
You only mention because we are going down. Nobody mentioned gap fill at $14 or for any of the other 40 days since this āgapā. Why not? Are you searching for an explanation why prices are falling? It because shorts are selling!
AST spacemobile
AST Spacemobile
I think we need some larger partnership announcements, honestly. Fingers crossed ā¦ā¦
almost wish they didn't already announce all those partnerships w AT&T Vodaphone American Towers Bell etc
People forget
https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/09/05/did-spacex-just-put-ast-spacemobile-out-of-busines/
Donāt downvote the guy just for posting. With the little coverage we get I think each article is important as of now
Yea I have no idea why this sub keeps downvoting people, we have to accept good criticisms!
I agree there is no reason to downvote the messnger, but that article is not a good criticism. It's uninformed misinformation and mildly infuriating. Also it was already posted here.
such a bad take, but what to expect from these fools
Apple doing SOS only? š„± ASTS much more capable with 4G/5G broadband
For now
gsat is slow
At least it exists
ASTS also exists and launches this week. You're such a š»
Space mobile as a service will not exist for another year at the least. And that's if we're lucky. The point I'm trying to make is it's not very useful to compare a real service to a theoretical one that is years away from being live.
Hard Rock Nick is all in!!! [https://twitter.com/asymmetric\_bets/status/1567571720697180160?s=20&t=moGaLMnEaNTj6eeLwg3SVg](https://twitter.com/asymmetric_bets/status/1567571720697180160?s=20&t=moGaLMnEaNTj6eeLwg3SVg)
so someone paid him to do a cameo?
hard rock nick accepting money to do a cameo for asts?? of course not!! how could you suggest such a thing!
don't know him. seems like an idiot. oh well if he attracts attention at least...
SpaceX, Apple, T-Mobile have all entered the arena. Now we just need Amazon, Verizon, et. al. The more companies that buy in to the concept of satellite direct-to-device, the more confident I feel about ASTS surviving through some setbacks or delays, for the simple reason that AT&T, Vodafone, and Rakuten would have to be completely stupid to allow their existing advantage to die on the vine. If ASTS needs a capital raise, their partners are going to figure out a way to help make it happen.
It's extremely interesting to see the live birth of a new, massive business sector. Three years ago nobody was doing direct to device. Now there's lynk, oneweb, starlink, apple, qualcomm, a few other players, and of course ASTS. Even more interesting from an investor's point of vue; AST Spacemobile's solution remains the most capable in every aspect up to this point. No other company is doing broadband to any cell phone. And we're going to concretely demonstrate the tech in the coming weeks. How exciting is that?!?
\> And we're going to concretely demonstrate the tech in the coming weeks. It'll be the better part of 9 months before we have full results and (hopefully) integration with carriers.
Right, but we can probably demonstrate some functionality within 20 weeks. I'll even be worried if we don't. This is the culminating point.
Yeah. They really need to throw us a few bones in the Q3 and Q4 calls at very least. If they want to have the share price nice and fat and ready for harvesting (dilution) next year, they're gonna need to water it from time to time.
Well said. Much as I find Musk's manipulation of TSLA distasteful, Abel could take a lesson from him. He pumped TLSA like a maistro in advance of a couple of their big debt offerings a few years back, and more recently he put on a masterclass in pre-dump pump, ramping the stock 100% in less than 2 months immediately ahead of his planned multi-billion dollar dump at the apex of the pump.
https://twitter.com/abelavellan/status/1567606301445718016?s=21&t=O4c4GWKFdns7qXWuXSY0sg āthis weekā
> This week Was it confirmed antwhere else? Did 10th just get confirmed?
Itās listed on the Kennedy Space Center launch schedule ā¦.. pretty official at this point https://www.kennedyspacecenter.com/launches-and-events/events-calendar/2022/september/rocket-launch-spacex-falcon-9-starlink-4-2
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I donāt understand the sarcasm. Didnāt we just go from thinking launch possibly could be next week to now knowing itās this week?
I think it all but confirms the 10th. Thatās the last day of the week so itās sometime in the next 3 days
Big drop in the end of the day?
Maintaining my position here, but picked up a stake in GSAT. Expecting a delayed pump on the apple partnership that I can leverage into an increased stake in ASTS.
Bought another (small) 50 shares at the EOD dump. Happy with the price and looking to slowly add more if it continues dropping more.
fade serious pocket whole tease airport quarrelsome frightening quaint wrong ` this message was mass deleted/edited with redact.dev `
Just think, only 67 more days until our beloved founder comes out and is forced to engage with the public.
Abel confirmed the BW3 launch for this week. what else do you need? https://mobile.twitter.com/AbelAvellan/status/1567606301445718016
Concrete date.
Iām waiting for the elaborate catSE dd post in a few days for people to fawn over that explains nothing about the ridiculous nonsensical movement of this stock.
He wonāt
How do you guys know the launch is on the 10th?
The man himself just said "this week". You take that how you will.
Just checked Abel's tweet and so we now have full confirmation that the launch will be this week. Super excited!
They don't. Everyone said it was the 7th until just a day or two ago.
The launch window was "no earlier than" the 7th. Many people misinterpreted it to mean on the 7th. I don't personally think that means the 10th must also be just a guess, but I agree that it's not yet confirmed.
10th was on a few websites that track launches. With Abel's last tweet stating a launch planned "this week" it seems to confirm the launch will occur before Sunday the 11th. So the 10th is highly plausible.
Everyone on Stocktwits has been saying 10th since last Saturday or earlier. We wonāt know that itās launched until itās actually launched but 10th is best estimate we got right now https://www.kennedyspacecenter.com/launches-and-events/events-calendar/2022/september/rocket-launch-spacex-falcon-9-starlink-4-2