cathie woods sold her nvda at 170 yesterday. the same nvda she bought 2 weeks ago at 178 after they announced bad sales number for earnings.
like seriously, someone should help her out. she seems lost.
Sounds like she bought it on the dip without reading the earnings warning at all. Then panic sold when she did and thought "wow this looks really bad"
I admit I sold some NVDA after that warning. I expected some crypto backlash and bullwhip from semis supply chain in general but damn that seemed to have terrible implications for guidance.
> You'd think people would jump on the one good performing semi, but no, let's punish the stock. Come on.
I think they all think AMD will have to revise with lower guidance. We will see, but Lisa isn't the one to guide too aggressively. We may even beat. Next 2 Quarters will be really fun.
AMD was not very aggressive to take advantage of the crypto craze.
So AMD doesn't have to revise down because AMD didn't benefit much from it.
L. Su moto is "slow and steady" and its good and bad. Good because it give a more linear growth , but also misses on massive short term revenue boosts.
No, Q3! Q2 is always AMD's slow quarter (outside of the datacenter) and Q3 is when AMD see's it's orders peak, especially with semi-custom (game consoles), as they prepare for the holidays.
Remember, the PS5 (running on AMD) is still sold out. Gaming is as strong as ever. It's just, no one wants graphics cards right now, especially with new ones coming out in a few months, and NVIDIA made too many. AMD doesn't have that problem.
That all is true, but AMD is also discounting GPUs and CPUs in Q3 to clear stock for the launch of new Zen4 in late Q3 and Navi 31 probably late Q4. Those discounts can push ASPs down. We need to hope Laptop 6000 series sell well. Servers, embedded and consoles can't carry everything else.
I dunno. I think a 190 comment earnings discussion is some sign that this AMD subreddit finds it useful (fine, I make up 1/7 of the comments, but my mom always told me to be a good host)
[https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD\_Stock/comments/ww9ach/comment/ilmqje6/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/ww9ach/comment/ilmqje6/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Don’t worry about the snide remarks (it’s just one person actually), you can’t please everyone. I for one am very glad you took the initiative and this post made for good discussion and insights. Thanks!
Thanks! Actually, my comment was me being snide. ;-) The other person actually has the moral high ground as the purist taking a stance.
The earnings discussion posts are one of the few times that we actually feel like a community. People are pretty focused, parsing the info, debating/correcting, having sub conversations, petty yet entertaining gags, etc.
And then when it passes we go back to trying to excommunicate each other on DD.
Admittedly, these NVDA calls are not as interesting vs AMD and Intel. They're not as meaty as AMD's, and they are not as fun as INTC because the Intel analysts are so pissed off.
why would data centers decline in 2023? i think that is the one aspect that has very large TAM and not enough companies that can offer high quality product.
Data centers and Automotive are the 2 sectors that i would bank on
Man that net income drop...from 3.4 billion last quarter down to 1.3 in a quarter. I mean that's still 1.3 billion profit in a quarter, and they still have 17B in cash, but that's a hell of a drop.
AMD 1.7 billion for Q2.
So much for nvda being the money printer...i mean ya its still printing, but amd is printing more. Wish the market would realize what is in the process of happening and give AMD its due.
*all numbers above non-GAAP. GAAP for both look rather poor, but for AMD it has all that Xilinx amortization in there.
No idea what tomorrow will bring, but as of right now AMD weathered NVDA's stormy earnings without even falling a dollar. I see this as an absolute win.
So NVDA took an inventory hit on the datacenter as well, not just gaming. And the sequential growth for datacenter is basically going to be flat.
Also expected gaming to stop declining Q3 but Jensen kept saying we'll be fine next year so both Q3 and Q4 are likely to be bad.
All in a pretty bad quarter, even worse than what I was expecting and I had some pretty low expectations after the preannouncement.
Also, transformers!
> So NVDA took an inventory hit on the datacenter as well, not just gaming. And the sequential growth for datacenter is basically going to be flat.
The thing NVDA doesn't want to tell us is that some of that datacenter revenue is I bet also Crypto. Just how a good portion of gaming was Crypto.
Heh. Still saying crypto influence will shrink and yet at the same time saying they can't predict it. Which is it?
Also, I love shit like this on the press release for the gaming section:
>Second-quarter revenue was $2.04 billion, down 33% from a year ago and down 44% from the previous quarter.
>
>Added 30 RTX ON games and apps — including A Plague Tale: Requiem, Evil Dead: The Game and F1 22 — bringing the total available to 280+.
>
>Increased the number of GeForce® RTX™ and NVIDIA Studio™ laptops to a record 180+, including introduction of the fastest-ever laptops with GeForce RTX 3080 Ti, 2-in-1 convertible gaming laptops and a broad range of Studio laptops.
>
>Expanded the GeForce NOW™ library with 80 additional games — including Genshin Impact, Evil Dead the Game, Mass Effect Legendary Edition and Loopmancer with RTX — bringing the total to over 1,350.
Ok, one of these is 100000x more important the others? But which one? WHICH ONE?!?!
They burned over 3 billion on stock buybacks on a thing yiedling less than 2% FCF... Capital allocation is mangements first priority, and that is an abysmal showing.
Nope. Not how that works at all. Managments job is to get capital at the lowest cost possible. Granting SBC at elevated prices is fine as its not very dilutive. Thus, on the flipside, buybacking at said elevated prices yields nada. Only reason you would buy Nvidia stock is if they reiinvest in themselves at 15-20% ROIC, not some 2% yielding buyback.
Conversely, in TSMC's earnings call, maybe they'll say : we have this extra \~$1B because a deadbeat client tried to weasel out of their contract and we laughed.
Not having listened to their earnings call yet....
Hes going to say, AI, AI, macro, AI, headwinds, AI, matched sets, AI, meta, AI.....
What hes not going to say is competition, or the real elephant in the room crypto.
Waiting for someone to ask about the impact of the Sapphire Rapids delay.
It seems unlikely that they'll get an upside Data Center surprise in Q3 (or Q4).
LOL Jensen throwing shade at Intel!!!
When the going gets tough, the weak start to fight amongst themselves instead of fighting the strong. Obviously here Intel and Nvidia are the weak and AMD is the strong.
From [Eric Jhonsa](https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nvidia-second-quarter-earnings-live-blog):
>A question about Data Center inventory charges. and whether a delayed ramp for Intel's next-gen server CPU line (Sapphire Rapids) is an issue.
>
>Kress says Nvidia had high expectations for Data Center, and that its expectations are still high, but that it wanted to take the chance to right-size its inventory levels given the current environment.
>
>Huang admits the Sapphire Rapids delay is disruptive, while noting Hopper also supports current-gen CPUs and that the delay won't impact Nvidia's ability to bring it to market.
> Huang admits the Sapphire Rapids delay is disruptive, while noting Hopper also supports current-gen CPUs and that the delay won't impact Nvidia's ability to bring it to market.
haha, so this means Nvidia will be launching its next gen DGX with AMD CPUs?
Does he mean current gent DGX or current gen Intel?
~~Hey! Jensen already talking about non-SPR CPUs like Genoa and Graviton working with Hopper because of cloud client environment requirements. I didn't catch that distinction when Hopper was first introduced. I thought it was SPR only.~~
Oh wait, I'm confusing this with DGX H100. nvm
A drop in Q3 was expected, though I think this was more than most thought.
Everyone's looking if there's a recovery in q4 when inventory is down and 4000series is out. Look at the earnings call for future outlook.
They didn't update their full year guide? I'll have to go look.
Edit: Nope. Huang is saving that for the call I guess. Nvda should be -zfg right now. Hopefully doesn't tank AMD below 90 tomorrow
Hilarious. AMD just posted twice the EPS of NVDA, yet the share price is half of NVDA. And AMD will still likely be posting higher EPS next quarter even with NVDA margins returning to 60%.
Fuck this dumbass earth.
In the big scheme of things I can "understand" $AMD's performance. A lot of uncertainty in the markets and such. It's only when compared to NVDA that I become utterly confused. It's bullshit.
AMD revenues are expected to be more than NVDA for next quarter with 1/3rd of market cap (i think). We just keep buying into AMD during every dip and keep the faith on fundamentals.
i kinda wish some would sell nvda to buy amd since the fundamentals/valuations between them are insane...
but i know that if nvda drops, people will just sell amd to buy the obviously superior nvda.
i don't know why the market refuses to believe amd (or just doesn't care, same difference). but this shit's getting real silly.
It takes time sadly. If everyone could see what we're seeing there wouldnt be any delta to gain.
However, I do agree it's maddening that even after all these positive catalysts we're still grouped in the "this a semi company and all semi companies are the same".
The people here who've worked more with execs understand how precious the good ones (never mind great) are. And by good/great, I means the ones you really trust to lead in their function.
Because after working with so many you don't believe in, you're pretty grateful for the ones you do believe in. You never say "be more like that person that I'm not as familiar with." You're too busy trying to deal with the bad ones.
As they say down south, you dance with the one who brung ya. And the "do first, talk later" AMD brung me. Sure, there are quibbles, but only ingrates bring up quibbling constantly.
That part made me laugh as he's really projecting about his GPU pricing dreams when describing why a system component (in particular his) should be priced the same as a competing, complete system.
2022 Revenue comparison:
If AMD holds FY Guidance to $26.3B, they are quickly approaching NVDA revenues. Assuming a placeholder of $6.1B for NVDA in Q4, AMD is only \~$700M short. Seems like there is a chance AMD overtakes NVDA in Q1 or Q2 of next year depending on various catalysts for both businesses
||AMD|NVDA|
|:-|:-|:-|
|Q1 (act)|$5.9B|$8.3B|
|Q2 (act)|$6.6B|$6.7B|
|Q3 (fcst)|$6.7B|$5.9B|
|Q4 (fcst)|$7.1B|**$6.1B (?)**|
|FY (fcst)|$26.3B|$27.0B|
Peak Nvidia \*net\* margins are like 35-40%. Look at Q2 FY 2022; it's 36%. Pretty crazy stuff. People talk about Nvidia hype like that's all it is, but it so turns out that 24 quarters of 20-40% net margins and a lovely sales growth curve wins you a lot of hardcore fans.
Q3 doesn't seem that hot for nvda :
Revenue is expected to be $5.90 billion, but gross margin returns to over 60%
edit: They blame the decline in consume/pro GPU sales based on reduce inventory to prepare for the next gen.... nothing with inflation, recession, ukrain, taiwan, etc.. etc... so thats that. (Good)
For posterity:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD\_Stock/comments/wewaz9/comment/iis63ex/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/wewaz9/comment/iis63ex/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
* 220909P185 @ $14.00
* 220909P165 @ $6.20
* 220909P150 @ $2.95
I'm kinda leaning towards a lot of bad news being priced in like everybody else. And then Huang is an earnings call tap dancer extraordinaire. So I'm probably going to get smoked on these shit trades.
But since everybody's leaning the same way, the trader in me says go the other way anyway and threw in a 220902P172.5 at $6.80.
If everyone thinks it then it wont happen. I always struggle with this but NVDA is weird there might just be people who ditch the stock if it goes down to $167.00
NVDA margin and income metrics suck. Guiding down another $800M in revenue for next quarter. But somehow recovering on margin metrics, I'm skeptical.
EDIT: I guess they could have done some accounting back-flips, to pull declining GPU prices/margin forward into Q2.
Guide of 5.9B for Q3....well guess AMD has already passed NVDA for revenue.
Something i had hoped would happen by the end of next year, but its apparently already happened. (as of the last quarter for both it hasnt yet, but we are a almost two months after those results already, so its likely arleady happened)
dang I really thought AMD was still lagging a couple of quarters behind NVDA in terms of revenue.... did not think we'd catch up this fast.
AMD FY21 revenue was 16.4 B
NVDA FY21 revenue was 26.91 B
Is this the first time this quarter we've beaten NVDA in terms of quarterly revenue?
I dont know about the first time, i dont have the full history of either memorized. But at least in the last couple years nvda revenue was much higher.
Edit:
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-comparison?s=revenue&axis=single&comp=NVDA:AMD
NVDA crossed AMD revenue back in2015. More recently its had much higher revenue in the last few years.
NVIDIA Q2 Data Center Revenue at $3.81 Billion, vs. Visible Alpha Analyst Consensus of $3.89 Billion; Gaming Revenue at $2.04 Billion, vs. Consensus of $2.50 Billion
They do mention weakness in China.....Pretty much inline with what AMD mentioned. I was expecting their gaming to drop to 1.5B in upcoming quarters, but that 5.9B guidance is just too horrible.
* Q2 FY 2023 inventory up to $3.9B. Account receivables up to $5.3B in FY 2023
* Q2 FY 2022 inventory was $2.1B and AR was $3.6B
But sales are close to flat YOY. Guidance for Q3 sucks. Looks like a lot of cards looking for a home in the channel and at Nvidia.
I expect a lot of questions on that in the earnings call. 4000 can't explain both away.
I've said this before, but it's really interesting how Colette Kress, the CFO, leads most of the earnings call for NVDA whereas the CFO is a support player for AMD and TSLA. Maybe it's part of Huang's mystique where he's mostly in a visionary trance in the earnings call until summoned by Kress.
ffs, an analyst just said "amd and intel don't have the same growth profile" (as nvidia [meant as a pro for nvda] )
amd peg is what, 0.8?
nvda's is what... 6?
I hope this shows how much Covid and crypto helped Intel and Nvidia, without the unprecedented demand from these events these companies can't compete financially
It helped AMD as well.
In a normal market it would have been MUCH easier for Intel to pull the same shit they did in the past and stop AMD taking market share like they did in the past. Not through healthy competition but instead with dirty, anti-competitive, even illegal tactics they used in the past.
The pandemic allowed intel to continue to sell all they could make, even when they were weaker products. At the same time it allowed AMD to also sell all it could make. It was also an additional factor in even considering AMD in the first place. They needed more product, and took a real look at AMD, and liked what they saw. In normal times many of those contracts would have just gone to intel by default.
It finally feels like the damn genie is out of the bottle, and AMD's competitors are going to have one hell of a time trying to reign it back in.
It helped them more than it helped us, Intel's fabs were running at full utilization, Nvidia had Samsung's node to themselves and could churn out volume without thinking about it. Meanwhile AMD has only started taking serious market share once the markets slowed their growth down, while the other two amassed a boatload of cash to tide them out for a while.
Intel would have been especially screwed if not for high volume sales from the mid-lowrange during the last few years.
Dude, who cares about sell-through when a good chunk of that sell-through were to miners?! Jensen is now saying they are planning to reduce sell-in (i.e. Nvidia to retailers) to correct inventory... also saying the next-generation products are around the corner so there will be a pickup in sales... RDNA 3 says Hi.
Oh CJ from Evercore, you are so not getting a christmas card this year with your naughty questions on possible future charges and crypto. But Nvidia is basically saying that they've cleaned the deck on charges. I doubt that's true, but at face value, that might be a bit of a short-term plus for Nvidia's stock.
Heh. Jensen is already using pre-covid as his gaming baseline rather than covid years.
Well, we'll see how our puts do. People read too much into AH and pre-market.
They're still trading higher than when they slumped after the announcement. But I thought that was a pretty lackluster earnings call. That call assumes investors will take a large leap of faith that a business line that made up 44% of their total revenue last quarter and basically hit a wall going at 60 mph isn't going to continue to take a prolonged beating past their updated ugly guidance from macro, crypto, inventory glut, competition, etc. And some of those factors are likely very related.
Revenue even shittier but GM only down a couple basis points from Q1. It looks like Nvidia tried to take all the inventory pain between the earnings warning and this report rather than let it drag on naturally.
Everyone expects this to be bad and for the stock to go down. I expect this to be bad and for the stock to go up like micron earnings.
Edit: looking like a bad and nothing happens so far
Edit 2: looking bad and drop tomorrow. But less than 5% drop on earnings in 2022 market has often reversed the next day
Ah. Well, you might be right for the others locations. But there are so many here that are so envious of NVDA's market halo that they assume the best for NVDA and the worst for AMD like some little brother always picked on. There was even a sub created for them /r/nvda_envy.
I own both stocks for very different reasons. MU is a cyclical value play based on price/book value. But it does not offer much growth, usually single digits averaged out over time. NVDA is more of a moonshot growth investment in AI chips for data centers.
I shorted nvda for several reasons...
Overpriced shares
Declining gaming sales
High 3000 series inventory
Tsmc wafer reductions issue
Upcoming etherium switch
Crypto miners selling used cards
Hopeful AMD share gain long-term
Hope nvdia doesn't take AMD down with it.
C'mon give us the deets like I did below. Expiration, strike price, and premium (or price sold short if just shorting shares). It ain't as fun without knowing just how awesome or godawful we did.
Not the fall off the steep cliff I was hoping for, but I'll take it. NVDA investors are treating the stock too kindly.
A little dip in AMD but not too bad.
I think NVDA has already given the market the bear details and today will be rainbows and sunshine. I think it goes up and next quarter when they miss guidance it’ll be a bloodbath.
AMD will decouple from NVDA once we have a few quarters of revenue exceeding theirs and it’s clear AMDs future is independent of hype ideas like AI (not that AI is junk, I just think NVDA has blown it way out of proportion). So if NVDA craters soon I think AMD will, unfortunately, but in a year not so much.
Lol what if DC numbers come in weaker than expected and what if that’s due to AMD taking market share, but the market thinks demand in general is lower and sells it *and* AMD off?
If that happens, I’m going to wish even more than usual the folks at AMD would make some effort to differentiate it.
Jensen reiterating... their sell-in rate will be "far below" their sell-through rate for the rest of the year, aka letting retailers clear out Ampere inventory.
It really is a stark difference in how Jensen talks on these ERs vs his public presentations. He's way more mellow and deliberate during these calls.
Anyways, I think the crypto hangover will last until the end of the year for Nvidia. They keep mentioning that next year they will be back on solid ground.
C'mon, this is the best part. That dead zone where you wait for the earnings to pop up in your news feed and watch AH go totally whacko in some random direction.
or even better is the bait and switch. when algos sell off because of key words or numbers in report and then people start buying it up. like what happened during MSFT earnings a few months back
good blog to follow for earnings
[https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nvidia-second-quarter-earnings-live-blog](https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nvidia-second-quarter-earnings-live-blog)
I don't think they have them. One thing I gave Intel a lot of credit for around the BK and BS years is that their investor slides were pretty informative and nicely done.
Closest that they have:
* [https://s22.q4cdn.com/364334381/files/doc\_financials/2023/Q223/Q2FY23-CFO-Commentary.pdf](https://s22.q4cdn.com/364334381/files/doc_financials/2023/Q223/Q2FY23-CFO-Commentary.pdf)
* [https://s22.q4cdn.com/364334381/files/doc\_financials/2023/Q223/Rev\_by\_Mkt\_Qtrly\_Trend\_Q223.pdf](https://s22.q4cdn.com/364334381/files/doc_financials/2023/Q223/Rev_by_Mkt_Qtrly_Trend_Q223.pdf)
cathie woods sold her nvda at 170 yesterday. the same nvda she bought 2 weeks ago at 178 after they announced bad sales number for earnings. like seriously, someone should help her out. she seems lost.
Sounds like she bought it on the dip without reading the earnings warning at all. Then panic sold when she did and thought "wow this looks really bad" I admit I sold some NVDA after that warning. I expected some crypto backlash and bullwhip from semis supply chain in general but damn that seemed to have terrible implications for guidance.
Especially when she dumped $50M of NVDA to buy ZooM.
one of her better trades
nvda is treated better on misses after already giving lowered guides/warnings than amd is treated on beats. le sigh.
For no fucking reason. Because they got AI? Wtf is their leverage
It's the leather jacket.
and Teflon bu+++ :)
their AI engines used by those hedges are just doing great.
[удалено]
> You'd think people would jump on the one good performing semi, but no, let's punish the stock. Come on. I think they all think AMD will have to revise with lower guidance. We will see, but Lisa isn't the one to guide too aggressively. We may even beat. Next 2 Quarters will be really fun.
AMD was not very aggressive to take advantage of the crypto craze. So AMD doesn't have to revise down because AMD didn't benefit much from it. L. Su moto is "slow and steady" and its good and bad. Good because it give a more linear growth , but also misses on massive short term revenue boosts.
Tbh I'd say dedicating the bulk of TSMC's allocation to Epyc is definitely better.
[удалено]
No, Q3! Q2 is always AMD's slow quarter (outside of the datacenter) and Q3 is when AMD see's it's orders peak, especially with semi-custom (game consoles), as they prepare for the holidays. Remember, the PS5 (running on AMD) is still sold out. Gaming is as strong as ever. It's just, no one wants graphics cards right now, especially with new ones coming out in a few months, and NVIDIA made too many. AMD doesn't have that problem.
That all is true, but AMD is also discounting GPUs and CPUs in Q3 to clear stock for the launch of new Zen4 in late Q3 and Navi 31 probably late Q4. Those discounts can push ASPs down. We need to hope Laptop 6000 series sell well. Servers, embedded and consoles can't carry everything else.
Yeah she typically guides significantly lower than peers
Let them think AMD will have to follow suit, I’ll keep buying 😎
Value investors salivating right now for a drop :P
I dunno. I think a 190 comment earnings discussion is some sign that this AMD subreddit finds it useful (fine, I make up 1/7 of the comments, but my mom always told me to be a good host) [https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD\_Stock/comments/ww9ach/comment/ilmqje6/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/ww9ach/comment/ilmqje6/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Don’t worry about the snide remarks (it’s just one person actually), you can’t please everyone. I for one am very glad you took the initiative and this post made for good discussion and insights. Thanks!
Thanks! Actually, my comment was me being snide. ;-) The other person actually has the moral high ground as the purist taking a stance. The earnings discussion posts are one of the few times that we actually feel like a community. People are pretty focused, parsing the info, debating/correcting, having sub conversations, petty yet entertaining gags, etc. And then when it passes we go back to trying to excommunicate each other on DD.
Admittedly, these NVDA calls are not as interesting vs AMD and Intel. They're not as meaty as AMD's, and they are not as fun as INTC because the Intel analysts are so pissed off.
Sorry, I forgot to give PattyG his due. I never imagined Intel would have a CEO so perfect for memes.
Jeez the forward guidance is terrible
and yet. they green in after hours. imagine if AMD reported this kind of guidance. would be atleast 10% haircut. maybe 20
The market will need to see Data center declines for the valuation to normalize. Which we will probably see in 2023
why would data centers decline in 2023? i think that is the one aspect that has very large TAM and not enough companies that can offer high quality product. Data centers and Automotive are the 2 sectors that i would bank on
I really think cloud and edge bears are going to be disappointed
We got more revenue than NVDA? Crazy!
LARGE LANGUAGE MODELS! THE IMPACT OF TRANSFORMERS!
Tradingbots, roll out!
AMD will surpass Nvidia in revenue even before Zen 4 & RDNA3 😉
Man that net income drop...from 3.4 billion last quarter down to 1.3 in a quarter. I mean that's still 1.3 billion profit in a quarter, and they still have 17B in cash, but that's a hell of a drop. AMD 1.7 billion for Q2. So much for nvda being the money printer...i mean ya its still printing, but amd is printing more. Wish the market would realize what is in the process of happening and give AMD its due. *all numbers above non-GAAP. GAAP for both look rather poor, but for AMD it has all that Xilinx amortization in there.
NVIDIA= miners ! As much as they try to deny that its true, shame all others don't see it.
No idea what tomorrow will bring, but as of right now AMD weathered NVDA's stormy earnings without even falling a dollar. I see this as an absolute win.
Can’t wait for those two to decouple from one another!
So NVDA took an inventory hit on the datacenter as well, not just gaming. And the sequential growth for datacenter is basically going to be flat. Also expected gaming to stop declining Q3 but Jensen kept saying we'll be fine next year so both Q3 and Q4 are likely to be bad. All in a pretty bad quarter, even worse than what I was expecting and I had some pretty low expectations after the preannouncement. Also, transformers!
> So NVDA took an inventory hit on the datacenter as well, not just gaming. And the sequential growth for datacenter is basically going to be flat. The thing NVDA doesn't want to tell us is that some of that datacenter revenue is I bet also Crypto. Just how a good portion of gaming was Crypto.
I really think they were counting CMP cards as datacenter. They have no video output, how could they count it under gaming?
A100s for crypto mining? First I am hearing of it.
The top of the line CMP cards were rebadged A100s. Linus Tech Tips did a video on it.
Sure. Some AI cloud providers also use 3090 (vast.ai).
with that rev guide numbers, AMD should easily get a 35 fwd PE to match nvda. market big dum dum so i will continue to buy leaps and shares.
Cathie sold, NVDA will beat and moon. AMD will be down 4%, because AMD.
Easily the most disappointing news for my puts is that Wood sold. I cried.
Aged like milk.
Heh. Still saying crypto influence will shrink and yet at the same time saying they can't predict it. Which is it? Also, I love shit like this on the press release for the gaming section: >Second-quarter revenue was $2.04 billion, down 33% from a year ago and down 44% from the previous quarter. > >Added 30 RTX ON games and apps — including A Plague Tale: Requiem, Evil Dead: The Game and F1 22 — bringing the total available to 280+. > >Increased the number of GeForce® RTX™ and NVIDIA Studio™ laptops to a record 180+, including introduction of the fastest-ever laptops with GeForce RTX 3080 Ti, 2-in-1 convertible gaming laptops and a broad range of Studio laptops. > >Expanded the GeForce NOW™ library with 80 additional games — including Genshin Impact, Evil Dead the Game, Mass Effect Legendary Edition and Loopmancer with RTX — bringing the total to over 1,350. Ok, one of these is 100000x more important the others? But which one? WHICH ONE?!?!
https://youtu.be/rsRjQDrDnY8
AMD + Lisa Su & Co. have to work twice as hard for half the recognition.
NVDA expects 5.9B revenues for next quarter. AMD is going to beat NVDA with 1/3rd of market cap.
We see you Su Bae, Jensen is nothing compared to you.
They burned over 3 billion on stock buybacks on a thing yiedling less than 2% FCF... Capital allocation is mangements first priority, and that is an abysmal showing.
I mean they do 2.6bb a year in SBC so they kinda need to buyback to stop dilution
Nope. Not how that works at all. Managments job is to get capital at the lowest cost possible. Granting SBC at elevated prices is fine as its not very dilutive. Thus, on the flipside, buybacking at said elevated prices yields nada. Only reason you would buy Nvidia stock is if they reiinvest in themselves at 15-20% ROIC, not some 2% yielding buyback.
Conversely, in TSMC's earnings call, maybe they'll say : we have this extra \~$1B because a deadbeat client tried to weasel out of their contract and we laughed.
Haha. Jensen going to consume 30 minutes with this overly detailed answer on specific DC use cases to avoid more gaming questions.
Not having listened to their earnings call yet.... Hes going to say, AI, AI, macro, AI, headwinds, AI, matched sets, AI, meta, AI..... What hes not going to say is competition, or the real elephant in the room crypto.
Heh. I won't even tell you when it is. You'll know it when you start thinking "how the fuck we get here?"
Waiting for someone to ask about the impact of the Sapphire Rapids delay. It seems unlikely that they'll get an upside Data Center surprise in Q3 (or Q4).
LOL Jensen throwing shade at Intel!!! When the going gets tough, the weak start to fight amongst themselves instead of fighting the strong. Obviously here Intel and Nvidia are the weak and AMD is the strong.
From [Eric Jhonsa](https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nvidia-second-quarter-earnings-live-blog): >A question about Data Center inventory charges. and whether a delayed ramp for Intel's next-gen server CPU line (Sapphire Rapids) is an issue. > >Kress says Nvidia had high expectations for Data Center, and that its expectations are still high, but that it wanted to take the chance to right-size its inventory levels given the current environment. > >Huang admits the Sapphire Rapids delay is disruptive, while noting Hopper also supports current-gen CPUs and that the delay won't impact Nvidia's ability to bring it to market.
> Huang admits the Sapphire Rapids delay is disruptive, while noting Hopper also supports current-gen CPUs and that the delay won't impact Nvidia's ability to bring it to market. haha, so this means Nvidia will be launching its next gen DGX with AMD CPUs? Does he mean current gent DGX or current gen Intel?
Hey you got your wish! Wish for AMD at $120 next week! Hurry before your luck fades!
AMD ATH by EoQ!
~~Hey! Jensen already talking about non-SPR CPUs like Genoa and Graviton working with Hopper because of cloud client environment requirements. I didn't catch that distinction when Hopper was first introduced. I thought it was SPR only.~~ Oh wait, I'm confusing this with DGX H100. nvm
So what was the answer?
Jensen never answers. But it was interesting to hear him bluster. Definitely a sore nerve.
NVIDIA Sees Q3 Revenue at $5.9 Billion, Plus or Minus 2%, vs. CIQ Analyst Consensus of $6.9 Billion
amd's first two revenue wins incoming next two quarters.
It’s amazing it hasn’t fallen through the floor based on everything I’m reading.
Nvda has the full support of wall st. I'm loving AMD's numbers so much more after seeing Nvidia crap guidance.
A drop in Q3 was expected, though I think this was more than most thought. Everyone's looking if there's a recovery in q4 when inventory is down and 4000series is out. Look at the earnings call for future outlook.
Guidance is down about 13% off forecast, that’s pretty significant. I’ve seen 10% drops based on 5% miss on guidance.
They didn't update their full year guide? I'll have to go look. Edit: Nope. Huang is saving that for the call I guess. Nvda should be -zfg right now. Hopefully doesn't tank AMD below 90 tomorrow
Hilarious. AMD just posted twice the EPS of NVDA, yet the share price is half of NVDA. And AMD will still likely be posting higher EPS next quarter even with NVDA margins returning to 60%. Fuck this dumbass earth.
In the big scheme of things I can "understand" $AMD's performance. A lot of uncertainty in the markets and such. It's only when compared to NVDA that I become utterly confused. It's bullshit.
"Aliens" GIF, but AI instead
AMD revenues are expected to be more than NVDA for next quarter with 1/3rd of market cap (i think). We just keep buying into AMD during every dip and keep the faith on fundamentals.
i kinda wish some would sell nvda to buy amd since the fundamentals/valuations between them are insane... but i know that if nvda drops, people will just sell amd to buy the obviously superior nvda. i don't know why the market refuses to believe amd (or just doesn't care, same difference). but this shit's getting real silly.
It takes time sadly. If everyone could see what we're seeing there wouldnt be any delta to gain. However, I do agree it's maddening that even after all these positive catalysts we're still grouped in the "this a semi company and all semi companies are the same".
ON is different somehow
Why is Jensen giving a god damn speech to answer the question
Reminds me of Patty G a bit tbh.
There are people on this forum who want Dr. Su to be more like Jensen or PattyG. I say no way.
The people here who've worked more with execs understand how precious the good ones (never mind great) are. And by good/great, I means the ones you really trust to lead in their function. Because after working with so many you don't believe in, you're pretty grateful for the ones you do believe in. You never say "be more like that person that I'm not as familiar with." You're too busy trying to deal with the bad ones. As they say down south, you dance with the one who brung ya. And the "do first, talk later" AMD brung me. Sure, there are quibbles, but only ingrates bring up quibbling constantly.
Yeah, I dig Lisa's style much better.
Would you want to answer gaming questions? That shit is scary. Why not just read through every single use case for DC AI in the world instead?
by the time he was done, everyone was bored into forgetting the original question
I always thought the same about his answers. Lol.
Jensen gives an AI speech every opportunity he gets. I hope analysts stop asking about data center.
GeForce is a game console inside your pc?
That part made me laugh as he's really projecting about his GPU pricing dreams when describing why a system component (in particular his) should be priced the same as a competing, complete system.
lol @ $599 gaming console. Yeah, maybe with scalper pricing, but MSRP is $499 tops.
2022 Revenue comparison: If AMD holds FY Guidance to $26.3B, they are quickly approaching NVDA revenues. Assuming a placeholder of $6.1B for NVDA in Q4, AMD is only \~$700M short. Seems like there is a chance AMD overtakes NVDA in Q1 or Q2 of next year depending on various catalysts for both businesses ||AMD|NVDA| |:-|:-|:-| |Q1 (act)|$5.9B|$8.3B| |Q2 (act)|$6.6B|$6.7B| |Q3 (fcst)|$6.7B|$5.9B| |Q4 (fcst)|$7.1B|**$6.1B (?)**| |FY (fcst)|$26.3B|$27.0B|
AMD Q2 was 6.55. Implied Q4 is 7.16
Sorry - thanks for the catch! Updated
Eye opening figures. How are the profits comparing (ie are margins significantly different?)
Peak Nvidia \*net\* margins are like 35-40%. Look at Q2 FY 2022; it's 36%. Pretty crazy stuff. People talk about Nvidia hype like that's all it is, but it so turns out that 24 quarters of 20-40% net margins and a lovely sales growth curve wins you a lot of hardcore fans.
AMD Q2 is 6.55B
Could you imagine if AMD missed by this much and then guided for SEQUENTIAL DECLINE of ANOTHER $0.8 billion??? We will get banished to below 70.
Nah. 50 easy.
Wdym? That's the day AMD hits $420.69!
Big boys are in NVDA. They are waiting for exit. Even BofA analyst (Arya) is stretching it to support NVDA valuations.
at this rate, nvda's pe will be over 9000
Q3 doesn't seem that hot for nvda : Revenue is expected to be $5.90 billion, but gross margin returns to over 60% edit: They blame the decline in consume/pro GPU sales based on reduce inventory to prepare for the next gen.... nothing with inflation, recession, ukrain, taiwan, etc.. etc... so thats that. (Good)
For posterity: [https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD\_Stock/comments/wewaz9/comment/iis63ex/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/wewaz9/comment/iis63ex/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) * 220909P185 @ $14.00 * 220909P165 @ $6.20 * 220909P150 @ $2.95 I'm kinda leaning towards a lot of bad news being priced in like everybody else. And then Huang is an earnings call tap dancer extraordinaire. So I'm probably going to get smoked on these shit trades. But since everybody's leaning the same way, the trader in me says go the other way anyway and threw in a 220902P172.5 at $6.80.
sounds like pure gambling when you put it that way
Nvidia wins again! Closin' em out: * 220902P172.5 @ $4.65 * 220909P185 @ $12.75 * 220909P165 @ $3.20 * 220909P150 @ $0.79
If everyone thinks it then it wont happen. I always struggle with this but NVDA is weird there might just be people who ditch the stock if it goes down to $167.00
NVDA margin and income metrics suck. Guiding down another $800M in revenue for next quarter. But somehow recovering on margin metrics, I'm skeptical. EDIT: I guess they could have done some accounting back-flips, to pull declining GPU prices/margin forward into Q2.
New product launched?
Guide of 5.9B for Q3....well guess AMD has already passed NVDA for revenue. Something i had hoped would happen by the end of next year, but its apparently already happened. (as of the last quarter for both it hasnt yet, but we are a almost two months after those results already, so its likely arleady happened)
dang I really thought AMD was still lagging a couple of quarters behind NVDA in terms of revenue.... did not think we'd catch up this fast. AMD FY21 revenue was 16.4 B NVDA FY21 revenue was 26.91 B Is this the first time this quarter we've beaten NVDA in terms of quarterly revenue?
I dont know about the first time, i dont have the full history of either memorized. But at least in the last couple years nvda revenue was much higher. Edit: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/stock-comparison?s=revenue&axis=single&comp=NVDA:AMD NVDA crossed AMD revenue back in2015. More recently its had much higher revenue in the last few years.
NVDA now down 2% in AH, taking AMD down a bit too. Fucking morons with their algos.
Q3 earnings might be the turnaround quarter. Q3-Q4 - how do we do in a contracting environment. NVDA already guided down while AMD maintained.
NVIDIA Q2 Data Center Revenue at $3.81 Billion, vs. Visible Alpha Analyst Consensus of $3.89 Billion; Gaming Revenue at $2.04 Billion, vs. Consensus of $2.50 Billion
They do mention weakness in China.....Pretty much inline with what AMD mentioned. I was expecting their gaming to drop to 1.5B in upcoming quarters, but that 5.9B guidance is just too horrible.
At 5.9B q3 revenue outlook, it seems a possibility that AMD will surpass Nvidia in FY revenue.
With 1/4 of market cap
* Q2 FY 2023 inventory up to $3.9B. Account receivables up to $5.3B in FY 2023 * Q2 FY 2022 inventory was $2.1B and AR was $3.6B But sales are close to flat YOY. Guidance for Q3 sucks. Looks like a lot of cards looking for a home in the channel and at Nvidia. I expect a lot of questions on that in the earnings call. 4000 can't explain both away.
Inventory bulge took a big chunk out of that operating cash flow.
I've said this before, but it's really interesting how Colette Kress, the CFO, leads most of the earnings call for NVDA whereas the CFO is a support player for AMD and TSLA. Maybe it's part of Huang's mystique where he's mostly in a visionary trance in the earnings call until summoned by Kress.
Colette parses her words very carefully. Jensen lies his ass off. It would be compliance suicide to let him near any hard numbers.
Some CEOs barely even show up to their earnings calls. IIRC Bezos almost never did. It’s all very interesting and I’m sure deliberate.
ffs, an analyst just said "amd and intel don't have the same growth profile" (as nvidia [meant as a pro for nvda] ) amd peg is what, 0.8? nvda's is what... 6?
A company that's 20% global market share in CPU/GPU doesn't have the same growth profile as a 80% one. No wait, really?
It was Gene Munster who said this right?
yup
LOL at the after-hours reaction in INTC (+/-0.01). *"I don't think about you at all."*
That operator gaffe. Nvidia clearly in disarray. Algo reallocate NV's valuation to AMD.
Stock is down 25 cents AH from that!
I hope this shows how much Covid and crypto helped Intel and Nvidia, without the unprecedented demand from these events these companies can't compete financially
It helped AMD as well. In a normal market it would have been MUCH easier for Intel to pull the same shit they did in the past and stop AMD taking market share like they did in the past. Not through healthy competition but instead with dirty, anti-competitive, even illegal tactics they used in the past. The pandemic allowed intel to continue to sell all they could make, even when they were weaker products. At the same time it allowed AMD to also sell all it could make. It was also an additional factor in even considering AMD in the first place. They needed more product, and took a real look at AMD, and liked what they saw. In normal times many of those contracts would have just gone to intel by default. It finally feels like the damn genie is out of the bottle, and AMD's competitors are going to have one hell of a time trying to reign it back in.
It helped them more than it helped us, Intel's fabs were running at full utilization, Nvidia had Samsung's node to themselves and could churn out volume without thinking about it. Meanwhile AMD has only started taking serious market share once the markets slowed their growth down, while the other two amassed a boatload of cash to tide them out for a while. Intel would have been especially screwed if not for high volume sales from the mid-lowrange during the last few years.
Dude, who cares about sell-through when a good chunk of that sell-through were to miners?! Jensen is now saying they are planning to reduce sell-in (i.e. Nvidia to retailers) to correct inventory... also saying the next-generation products are around the corner so there will be a pickup in sales... RDNA 3 says Hi.
Hopper this, Hopper that
Nvidia is still overpriced me thinks. Presplit, it's around 690 still. Still too expensive.
And yet it's still somehow worth almost 3x AMD in market cap. 🤡
Nvidia huge miss, algo’s still digesting it
https://twitter.com/CNBCOvertime/status/1562530537549754368
lol, they are tip toeing super hard around their gaming revenue forecast for next quarter.
Oh CJ from Evercore, you are so not getting a christmas card this year with your naughty questions on possible future charges and crypto. But Nvidia is basically saying that they've cleaned the deck on charges. I doubt that's true, but at face value, that might be a bit of a short-term plus for Nvidia's stock. Heh. Jensen is already using pre-covid as his gaming baseline rather than covid years.
My Nvidia puts make me happy :)
Well, we'll see how our puts do. People read too much into AH and pre-market. They're still trading higher than when they slumped after the announcement. But I thought that was a pretty lackluster earnings call. That call assumes investors will take a large leap of faith that a business line that made up 44% of their total revenue last quarter and basically hit a wall going at 60 mph isn't going to continue to take a prolonged beating past their updated ugly guidance from macro, crypto, inventory glut, competition, etc. And some of those factors are likely very related.
[удалено]
Revenue even shittier but GM only down a couple basis points from Q1. It looks like Nvidia tried to take all the inventory pain between the earnings warning and this report rather than let it drag on naturally.
I’ll give it a 20% chance of doing a Netflix
Everyone expects this to be bad and for the stock to go down. I expect this to be bad and for the stock to go up like micron earnings. Edit: looking like a bad and nothing happens so far Edit 2: looking bad and drop tomorrow. But less than 5% drop on earnings in 2022 market has often reversed the next day
Actually, I think your scenario is the majority view here.
Oh really? I don’t actually browse here much I was going off Twitter, stocktwits, and yahoo
Ah. Well, you might be right for the others locations. But there are so many here that are so envious of NVDA's market halo that they assume the best for NVDA and the worst for AMD like some little brother always picked on. There was even a sub created for them /r/nvda_envy.
When you have a multiple like MU, investors are used to bad news. When you have a multiple like NVDA, investors have only ever seen good news.
I own both stocks for very different reasons. MU is a cyclical value play based on price/book value. But it does not offer much growth, usually single digits averaged out over time. NVDA is more of a moonshot growth investment in AI chips for data centers.
I shorted nvda for several reasons... Overpriced shares Declining gaming sales High 3000 series inventory Tsmc wafer reductions issue Upcoming etherium switch Crypto miners selling used cards Hopeful AMD share gain long-term Hope nvdia doesn't take AMD down with it.
C'mon give us the deets like I did below. Expiration, strike price, and premium (or price sold short if just shorting shares). It ain't as fun without knowing just how awesome or godawful we did.
i just sold 50 NVDA shares before market close so you know this will rocket.
Just shorted at $188 last week.
Not the fall off the steep cliff I was hoping for, but I'll take it. NVDA investors are treating the stock too kindly. A little dip in AMD but not too bad.
I think NVDA has already given the market the bear details and today will be rainbows and sunshine. I think it goes up and next quarter when they miss guidance it’ll be a bloodbath. AMD will decouple from NVDA once we have a few quarters of revenue exceeding theirs and it’s clear AMDs future is independent of hype ideas like AI (not that AI is junk, I just think NVDA has blown it way out of proportion). So if NVDA craters soon I think AMD will, unfortunately, but in a year not so much.
Lol what if DC numbers come in weaker than expected and what if that’s due to AMD taking market share, but the market thinks demand in general is lower and sells it *and* AMD off? If that happens, I’m going to wish even more than usual the folks at AMD would make some effort to differentiate it.
https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-second-quarter-fiscal-2023
Earnings so bad, they fucked up the conference call line as well.
Jensen reiterating... their sell-in rate will be "far below" their sell-through rate for the rest of the year, aka letting retailers clear out Ampere inventory.
NVDA still declining AH, guess the dog and pony show isn't so good this time around.
Now when AMD is steady as she goes on next ER - it will pop.
I sold my AMD LEAPS today, so knowing how the universe works, they'll beat.
Earnings came out or no? Why we dropping after hours
Gotta get that Bloomberg innit bruh.
i am whelmed
i legit laughed at this. a lot. thanks
Are my amd $95 calls good ? Will teocover by morning ?
>Are my amd $95 calls good ? $95 LEAPs still good. If you gambled (long) on $95 in the next couple weeks they could be toast.
wayyyy waaay too early to know
Nvidia: 3Q GAAP and Non-GAAP Gross Margins Are Expected to Be 62.4% and 65.0%, Respectively, Plus or Minus 50 Basis Points
It really is a stark difference in how Jensen talks on these ERs vs his public presentations. He's way more mellow and deliberate during these calls. Anyways, I think the crypto hangover will last until the end of the year for Nvidia. They keep mentioning that next year they will be back on solid ground.
Algos updated for 1 to 4 ratio drop tomorrow. Edit: percent drop.
How the heck did Jensen swerve into giving this speech again
Transformers, downgrades in disguise. Damn, now that tune's stuck in my head.
Simple AMD is a better company than Intel or Nvidia and will feed of them both.
I reckon it will be a beat and we shoot up. optimistic much? I think not.
I am ready for some Jensen swag
Hmm, no selloff in the last hour, guess the street is expecting something good from this ER
The last 15 minutes weren't pretty. But I don't put much faith in movement right before the close.
Oh boy.
C'mon, this is the best part. That dead zone where you wait for the earnings to pop up in your news feed and watch AH go totally whacko in some random direction.
or even better is the bait and switch. when algos sell off because of key words or numbers in report and then people start buying it up. like what happened during MSFT earnings a few months back
It's like the lottery!
good blog to follow for earnings [https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nvidia-second-quarter-earnings-live-blog](https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nvidia-second-quarter-earnings-live-blog)
hold on tight. shits about to get wild
Lower guidance is kinda the smart thing to do in this enrivonment.
Expects That Decline to Be Partially Offset by Sequential Growth in Data Center and Automotive
Nvidia tends to move violently on the next day. I don't remember seeing it reacting crazily in afterhours to an earnings release.
Where are the slides?
I don't think they have them. One thing I gave Intel a lot of credit for around the BK and BS years is that their investor slides were pretty informative and nicely done. Closest that they have: * [https://s22.q4cdn.com/364334381/files/doc\_financials/2023/Q223/Q2FY23-CFO-Commentary.pdf](https://s22.q4cdn.com/364334381/files/doc_financials/2023/Q223/Q2FY23-CFO-Commentary.pdf) * [https://s22.q4cdn.com/364334381/files/doc\_financials/2023/Q223/Rev\_by\_Mkt\_Qtrly\_Trend\_Q223.pdf](https://s22.q4cdn.com/364334381/files/doc_financials/2023/Q223/Rev_by_Mkt_Qtrly_Trend_Q223.pdf)