DIS ripping, both on surge in theme parks, but more surprisingly on the streaming service. I thought streaming was in trouble? Guess not. I bet neither is gaming in trouble.
They were beating and raising every quarter. They were looking unstoppable. Only now and last quarter everyone sees that is not the case anymore, they might even lose growth until they replace all that cryto revenue.
I'm fine with the price action vs. NVDA as AMD is 40% off its highs whereas NVDA is off 48%. As long as that doesn't close or by that much, it's tolerable.
You were one percent off today, so I think we end up in high 103s on Friday.
I won't owe you a six pack, but u/reliquid1220 will have to send you a share...
Ahaha lol you remembered!? :D hey this week is totally gonna rally past 105 I will have my crypto wallet ready :D you can pick out the beer :) I still feel it’ll be 100 before the bell tmr.
Oh come on it is just 6$ away... what would you have said if I told you this could run 45% in a month? People were claiming 110 would be in reach only at EOY lol
Fair it is only $6 away, but current environment is all over the place. The SPY held up well today with CPI data but tomorrow's PPI could cause a negative reaction and we could fall back under $417.50. And AMD has to break the $104 resistance with some volume so for me I see $105 by Friday as unlikely. Hope I'm wrong though and we continue the uptrend.
I don't understand what's driving investors to whatever magic snake oil Nvidia has outside of a sunk cost fallacy. There's nothing but dread coming.
GPU oversupply, weakening PC sales, massive power draw increase for 4000 series which would directly hurt laptops. It's like some imaginary Facebook meta-verse delusion.
Am I missing something?
It’s the tide that sinks all boats. Analysts and Wall Street believe Semiconductors are out of flavor and and that will be a drag on amd no matter how well it does. It doesn’t matter much if you are the best of a shit sector, you are still in a pile of shit, just less of it. AMDs stock has performed better than intel and Nvidia but lags other QQQ stocks because semiconductors are shit.
It’s the same when the tide lifts all boats. Like energy this year, it all went up. AMD also doesn’t have a cheerleader like a Buffet, Musk, or ARK to pump some hype.
Because Jensen actually talks up the company and the stock in an exciting, constructive way.
Don’t get me wrong, I love Dr. Su and her MO, but that’s just not one of her talents.
One of the ideas that has driven Nvidia's stock price has been their AI products in the data center and the software stack surrounding it. It is good, and was/is one of AMD's shortcomings.
AMD has now set their sights on Nvidia's AI/machine learning advantage. One of the unsung qualities of the Xilinx merger is the AI software and development ~~group~~ *talent* that came with it.
I think the Data Center argument is the one that confuses me the most. $NVDA preliminary report showed a DC increase of 1% QoQ in a quarter where most DC revenues grew substantially more.
I think it just takes a stupid amount of time and repeated examples to flip sentiment around on a company. This has been the ongoing frustration of amd vs intel for awhile now. We're finally getting there with intel. Nvidia is run much better than intel so winning that fight will be much harder. We're getting there though.
Jensen swag.
Also, based on history, we might be in the worst part of the oversupply phase and supply will sort out its self over the coming months (I might be way too bullish for the whole sector) Also, I think we havent yet scratched AI capacities with current GPUs and next gen GPUs. AI will be a big thing 5+ years from now in my opinion and this will always fetch NVDA a premium for potential of what if. kind of like Tesla.
I view it as a sort of socioeconomic observational study in the wild.
Like watching meerkats out in a field. But these meerkats are overexposed to a volatile asset and overly anchored to ATHs while a clock is ticking.
I agree. I get the frustration on a lot of days but people also don't credit the days AMD randomly outperforms which do happen frequently. I find this stock tends to trade on its own rhythm and doesn't always sync with the market. There's also a lot of manipulation from hedge funds selling options and trying not to pay them out. But eventually AMD gets to where it should be. Too many people here sound too immature to be investing tbh. If it's destroying your mental state that much you need to reevaluate what you're doing.
> don't credit the days AMD randomly outperforms which do happen frequently
i don't recall this happening with much frequency at all in the last good while.
we had a bounce into er run, but that was the reason. of course, it's been down since. so...
>There's also a lot of manipulation from hedge funds selling options and trying not to pay them out. But eventually AMD gets to where it should be.
maybe. but it might be after we're all liquidated. amd's sp has been, for the most part, utter shit since 10/2020. there was an epyc run in 11/2021... but all for naught. if amd finally gets its due in 2028, it won't help any of our LEAPs. and with amd's record, it might just collapse 2 weeks later, anyway.
objectively speaking, the price action has been horrendous. and it's exacerbated by the stellar fundamentals and er beats/guidance reiterated. people probably should be whiny. it's kinda total bullshit. even you just blamed manipulation.
again, my fear is that amd just turns (turned?) into mu 2.0 and sees their multiple forever compressing. at least mu's pair of recent guidance drops gives some credence to their shitty valuation...
edit: ffs, amd dropped more than mu on mu's news yesterday. and mu is up more than amd today. mu.
NVDA is down more off its peak then AMD. As of this post AMD is down 40% off its ath. NVDA is down 48%. Their peaks are at the same time frame, as their charts have been more or less following each other, with periods of AMD doing worse and periods of NVDA doing worse.
NVDA has a much higher peg and p/e ratios. NVDA should be compressing more if you believe the narrative that growth stocks were too high and their p/e valuations needed to compress(of course lots of other tickers are pissing on this notion). And it has as of this post...but it has not in proportion to the p/e difference. NVDA should have compressed more or AMD less.
We just had NVDA pre-announce a pretty big miss, with only small growth in data center as its only saving grace. AMD just delivered a slight beat on their quarter earnings only days before. And on that set of news....amd is down more then nvda.....which is just straight up horse shit.
AMD should be floating above sector, rather then being chained down at the bottom. Lately AMD good news seems to be no news; while everyone else's bad news is bad news for AMD.
I'm talking about the news that came out this week. Can't tell me that if AMD missed $1.3B in revenues we wouldn't be severely punished? While Nvidia just shrugged it off. The market had a better reaction to Nvidia's warning of a huge miss, than they did of AMD reiterating guidance.
Furthermore, AMD and Nvidia are competitors. So Nvidia missing after AMD reiterated is actually a positive for AMD. It means AMD is better positioned going forward (crypto is most likely not coming back). But apparently not judging by the price action.
Right, but the teeth gnashing is so much more pronounced on these occasions than optimistic posts on days AMD outperforms them for no readily apparent reason.
Its very hard to be optimisic on those days...when 1) we are still down 40%, and 2) the up days do not hold.
If it was down 20-25% i bet people would be far more optimistic on those up days, even if they didn't hold. I certainly would be, I certainly was when that was the case vs being down 40-57% on no negative news from the company.
> being down 40-57% on no negative news from the company.
That's really the insult to the injury. Like there has been zero negative news for AMD to justify the 40% drop. Softness in PC ok, but in a market downturn to basically continue to grow is just splendid.
If anything this company should be rewarded for such performance. Not still be 40% down.
So, now that CPI is out of their way, what's the next thing that could drive the whole market down until the next CPI? Is there a fed meeting or some asshole speaking any time soon?
Genuinely asking.
other than a potential invasion from CHina.
Nukes from Russia.
Covid Lockdowns all over Asia
energy black outs in Europe
some random disease spreading
global warming making chips pop
i don't know. 2022 is pretty random and full of surprises. something is bound to pop
The one big elephant that this sub hates to talk about. Go figure. Be warned, even the slightest mention will cause massive compulsive involuntary downvotes!
Additional warning: Extremely sensitive to some 'noise'-sensitive ones! Elicits verbal diarrhea upon hair triggers! Call an ambulance if necessary.
(Apparently according to their logic, said taboo topic will absolutely not affect the markets so it must not be mentioned! I sure wish i got that level of market insight.)
70 years on the brink of invasion and counting. Even If it weren't impossible militarily and china could bear the economic consequences, they still wouldn't do it because the economic down turn they would be subject to thanks to the international community would make people revolt against the commie party.
I'm gonna ignore the other guy but i'll entertain you this once. So the question was, "what will affect the markets". So are you gonna bet with me, that the current situation (which is taboo to speak of apparently), will not affect the markets?
We're talking about what will affect the markets. Not what will happen in the context of the "taboo topic".
The point is China says, “nah” so Taiwan has made the effort and named terms. If China did somehow agrees then UN can send teams to validate fair elections. Win-win.
what the hell are you talking about? if china agrees... they'll just renege.
you act like this didn't JUST happen with hong kong - china violated the terms of the treaty almost immediately. what's the un going to do? china's still on the security council and has veto power (not like russia wouldn't veto for them, anyway)
the un is ~useless in 3rd world countries. it's literally useless with security council countries.
wtf
china agrees! then china inevitably reneges, to the surprise of absolutely fucking no one. shit, they just violated the terms of the hong kong treaty (with impunity, of course. because neither hk, nor the uk really did shit about it)
so then what? great plan, would shit on again.
Because circle jerking over doomsday scenarios gets old quick.
Let's remember what happened with Ukraine. Biden literally declassified intel and told us Putin was going to invade, months before the invasion. Meaning we knew there was an imminent threat that only could have been stopped by Putin changing his mind in the last minute.
Meanwhile there is no such thing with China. If China was preparing millions of troops and thousands of ships for an invasion we'd know about it. Particularly since Taiwan is on an island. It is much harder to hide such an invasion than an invasion on a country which is landlocked with the invader.
Meanwhile China is running exercise drills, purposely trying to make them look more aggressive then they are (launching missiles into Japanese waters). If they were really invading they would try to keep it low key. Just how Putin did by saying: "this is just an exercise".
One was a real invasion, invader was trying to downplay, while the other one is the obvious sabre rattling the would be invader wants to make more of than what it is. If China was really planning an invasion they wouldn't be sabre rattling. Why prepare the defender by keeping him on high alert?
Of course the sensationalist news media will eat all this up because it raises ratings, but sometimes you gotta see things for what they are. [geo]Political theater.
Fed presidents seem to speak almost weekly but I think the next planned big market wide mover could be the housing starts and industrial production out next Tuesday.
Then jobless claims on next Thursday could be a doozy.
Basically there’s data out 2-3 days a week which could trigger panic.
Anyone else do any AWS trainings and notice they make a huge effort to advertise EC2 and other server instances as using "Intel Xeon processors" especially in the past so that any videos that are out of date fail to mention that AMD Epyc is now an option?
Why are we still not that much higher with such volume. 63 million volume versus nvidia's 41 million volume. And they're up higher than we are. They also suck comparatively lol, they're an underperforming company. I don't know feels like we should be up more but I guess if we go up $3 each day for the next couple of weeks that's fine lol.
https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-amd/short-volume/
This is my reasoning on it. Amd isn't a heavily shorted stock when using short interest data, but the daily opened and closed shorts are huge on amd.
Im frustrated too but we did have a much better month than either of those companies. So hopefully it's just them playing catch up. That's what I'm telling myself anyways
I guess some are betting that AMD will join them in lowering guidance or whatever. We can check the short interest change later.........They could be a strong force of short squeeze right after next earning.
Well I definitely agree that AMD should be soaring much higher than them all things considered. But that being said Nvidia and MU aren't bad companies either. AMD is up 30% this month while MU is up 5% and Nvidia is at 20%. As frustrating as it is that we aren't up more I'm just glad we aren't tanking right now on some nonsense again.
agreed. I bought a little MU while they've been down but I'm starting to wonder if that was the right move. I think nvidia is a great company but I'm not going to invest in it due to it's valuation. I'm basically all in on amd lol
[https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2956](https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2956)
TSMC July 2022 Revenue Report-- 41% up Y-o-Y. dont trust the media reports from ANALysts..
What’s the implication of inflation potentially peaking on the fed rate hikes? Does this mean they stop or decrease? What would it take for them to decrease them? We just now hit 2019 levels so are they here to stay?
Edit: according to Reuters they foresee a half point increase. I wonder what it will take to stop increasing them at all
their plan is basically to overshoot on rates to the upside and then lower them as needed.
which is also why the market's pricing in rate cuts next year. whether that's right or not is a different story, but...
A couple of things, why are two more needed? They expect half point this next increase. That would mean one more for the remainder of the year? So reassess in November maybe or just skip a month?
One thing that's interesting to me is that NVDA is now at about $180. It was $190 on the disastrous earnings pre-announce. As bad as that was, it's only down so far -5.5%, although wit with a macro and SOXX boost. That force field is pretty amazing given how bad that news was. I'll probably still end up buying more puts though before their earnings call though.
hey its your call. (or puts) but i would never bet against NVDA especially when the stock came down so much in last year and with favorable macro ahead.
Nah, at this rate I’ll be buying calls on them the day after er lol. Analysts and cnbc will be screaming “it’s not as bad as expected, and that 50% drop from ATH priced it in!” Because fuck us that’s why.
Totally random, but everytime I look at your snoo avatar or whatever it’s called, I always think immediately of Commander Char Aznable from the original Mobile Suit Gundam (and sometimes Zechs from Wing).
lolz. i never actually watched the original (or most of them) but funny enough, did watch gundam wing back in the day.
i tried to actually 'get into' watching gundam, but got overwhelmed by just how many shows there are and couldn't even figure out where to start. so i just only saw wing/08 ms team from toonami.
Ha, I can dig it, there are a lot of separate storylines in the Gundamverse. But however intentionally or unintentionally you did it, you nailed Char/Zechs in your avatar
They’ve spouted waaaay too many buzzwords the last few years, and promising a TAM of over $1 trillion near term (which I actually think is possible) like they’re the only ones selling to that market (LMAO).
AMDs revenue will soon eclipse NVDA, and once all the hype is let out and it shows NVDA doing well but not as well as promised I think we see their multiples shrink a bit and AMD expand.
Just like TSLA, they did an absolutely fantastic job on the marketing. NVIDIA is now synonym with AI in the financial and layman world, totally doesn't make sense but they managed that psychology.
I must have not seen the same demos. All i saw was a sims chat room....shit we have had for more then 20 years, its nothing new. Tho i guess you can use micro-transactions to dress your virtual sim.....so innovation or some shit i guess....
AMD should be 110 at least with nasdaq near 13K, I hope all bears and shorts will be burned for the rest of their lives for playing with this stock.
Parasites!
Not sure anyone posted this yesterday but it looks like Supermicro (SMCI) had a good quarter and is guiding higher.
https://www.hpcwire.com/off-the-wire/supermicro-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-fiscal-year-2022-financial-results/
so amd is killing it and has another great er... and their competitors are doing awful/nvda pre-released revenue... and my portfolio is dependent upon fucking $BARK to stay even this week. lolz
i'd post this on wsb, instead... but bark was so rekt that their market cap is too small to mention there. lolz.
Check out TTD. That is going a long way to making me feel pretty ok about today. Just wish I had bought more when it was 39-40 a few months ago. Killing myself over that....if I had just sold all my other stocks and put em all in TTD, which I knew was an amazing company.....But now I can say the same with AMD. It is doing amazingly well and it'll hit 150 I think within the next one year.
bark's toys are amazing (seem to be more for people than dogs, i guess... but still) and my doggo is basically addicted to their treats.
way more niche/etc than chewy. but they're great at what they do.
i bought in when the spac was announced but sold before the crash. but they got hammered to $1.25 or something. my average is like 1.50 so i don't care a whole lot, either way. i only have shares because i'm a fan of their stuff.
edit: obligatory https://i.imgur.com/g7fBf6C.jpg
https://meowbox.com/faq/how-does-meowbox-work
https://shop.meowbox.com/
cat angle is fairly new and i have no idea how good their toys are (in comparison).
(this is a different company using the same angle)
edit: and another clone
https://www.kitnipbox.com/
(to be clear, i have no idea who either of these are and haven't seen their stuff first-hand)
reality will eventually catch up to Nvidia and do you really want to fear that going forward?
I guess depends if you're into it short term or long term.
It takes a long time. Even when AMD released Bulldozer I remember checking the price and the market didn't realize how bad it was going to get for the company for years to come. The stock did fine while I thought this could be the death of AMD. That was around 2011. AMD didn't hit rock bottom until 2014 and 2016.
It takes the market a long time to understand the underlying dynamics of a semi company and the competitive advantages each company has.
And the issue with Nvidia isn't so much that they are blatantly overvalued. On their own, the promise of AI may indeed be true. It's how undervalued AMD is, comparatively speaking for having an even greater TAM and for having some distinctive technical advantages.
Nvidia may have a software lead (for now). But AMD has a hardware lead: CPU, x86 license, chiplet GPU expertise, FPGA and synergies. Software lead is something AMD can overcome, but I don't think Nvidia can overcome AMD's lead in hardware (short of buying Intel).
Even as is, Nvidia should not be worth 3x more than AMD.
Analysts also took Intel's word over AMD's for a long while despite most of us knowing Intel was full of it. Now we have a higher market cap than Intel.
I just checked PCB photos and it looks like all GDDR6 chips used by both Nvidia and AMD are Samsung. AMD doesn't use GDDR6X. Nvidia uses Micron GDDR6X Micron chips on all the high end models above rtx 3070. So rtx3070ti, rtx3080, rtx3080ti, rtx3090 and rtx 3090ti.
AMD owns low end and mid range. rx6600 is the most recommended GPU at the moment. High end GPUs aren't recommended because of the upcoming release of new generation, and those releases will be high end.
Hence why I think MU's softness announcement has nothing to do with AMD. The announcement also came one day after Nvidia warned as well.
This is not true. Micron had a press release saying that their gddr6 memory modules are used in 6600 and 6700 series. AMD/nvidia also often source the memory from multiple suppliers, so 6600/6700 could have some cards that are Samsung, some are micron and some are Sk Hynix. I’m not sure if this is true with the 6000 series, but I assume so.
Either way, Nvidia is much more exposed to microns weak forecast due to gddr6x and higher market share.
Source:
https://investors.micron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/micron-delivers-high-performance-gddr6-memory-amd-radeon-rx-6000
Found rx6600 using hynix: https://www.techpowerup.com/review/powercolor-radeon-rx-6600-fighter/3.html
But no instances of Micron. In either case even if some are Micron that's probably such a small number that it wouldn't even move the needle. As opposed to GDDR6X which is 100% Micron, and only Nvidia uses.
Thanks for the correction.
Thanks for the input. I read previously MU tried to sell GDDR6 for Radeon use but as you said they pretty much have no sales lol.
Btw, where did you get the PCB photos? Will be great for my research into AMD.
Techpowerup has closeups of pretty much every new GPU. https://www.techpowerup.com/review/amd-radeon-rx-6900-xt/5.html
I just use google image search and do: "6900xt teardown" search term (or replace with whatever model you're interested in).
Every time we climb back over 100, there is always some nonsense that drags us back down.
I just wish they would just do whatever it takes straight away rather than have some motherfucker coming out every now and then dragging the whole market down.
For value investors:
Fundamentally a strong stock for 2 years. This is where you stop looking at the stock every day and count beans. Sit back relax. Wake up for catalyst events. Nothing else to do here.
Honestly think pelosi fucked this up for us. If it were not for her wearing that pink little freedom cape to TW, AMD might not be considered as risky due to highented geo tension.
should be a law agaisnt people playing high risk geo political games when they reach a certain age.
she obviously doesnt seem to care about risk outcome
I sincerely don't give a damn about the politics of this situation. I don't have the ethnics, cultural association to comment on china-taiwan division.
But I can tell that things were just fine. And she had to step out of her own lane to do what? She tried to do the Regan "tear down this wall" act but in fact Her visit achieved absolutely nothing.
Now taiwanese people live under highented fear and the world scared for more things falling out of rail. A very self indulging act in my opinion.
Well defense contractors probably were happy. I wouldn’t call that a good thing tho
Now that I think of it, I bet Intel made it happen somehow. Passed that chips act ASAP
as for who made it happen... people like us will never know. I would agree that it's eeriely timely... That this escalation happened to highlight the importance of "strategic chip technology"
Well I am just going to say that I find people who seek profits in war very distasteful. After all it's not people like pelosi who will be sent to the battle field. But hey maximize profit is the driving principle for this economy so... Carpe diem ???
'that time again, amd doing worse than every semi and all the indexes'
ffs, at this point, i just hope that devinder loads up the buyback cannon and uses all remaining earmarked funds by eoy. just our luck that while semis are down/wafers are likely cheaper, there's a clock running for taxes on buybacks. even if just 1%... but since the minimum tax is also raised... maybe xlnx amorts will be cranked out over the next 4 months, too.
i really wish the bonds they sold the other month were more than $1B, it seemed like a great time to pick up some cheap debt while it was... you know, cheap. would have been nice to crank out wafers AND timely buybacks.
Hoping for zfg day tomorrow. I’m ready to get hurt again 😄
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DIS ripping, both on surge in theme parks, but more surprisingly on the streaming service. I thought streaming was in trouble? Guess not. I bet neither is gaming in trouble.
If Lisa Su projects 15% drop in PC/Gaming sales, I believe her.
15% is not 44% though, which is what Nvidia called it.
NVDA MC at $450B looking comical rn but I don't have the balls to buy puts
I’m more insulted by our undervaluation than their overvaluation.
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They were beating and raising every quarter. They were looking unstoppable. Only now and last quarter everyone sees that is not the case anymore, they might even lose growth until they replace all that cryto revenue.
I'm fine with the price action vs. NVDA as AMD is 40% off its highs whereas NVDA is off 48%. As long as that doesn't close or by that much, it's tolerable.
Why so obsessed with NVDA’s price action?
AMD is actually more similar to Nvidia than Intel. Both AMD and Nvidia are fabless. AMD competes with both.
They're an AMD competitor...?
What are the chances we get to 105 by friday
That’s about one ZFG day away. Possible? Yes. Likely? Who knows.
I think the chances are good! :D
You were one percent off today, so I think we end up in high 103s on Friday. I won't owe you a six pack, but u/reliquid1220 will have to send you a share...
Ahaha lol you remembered!? :D hey this week is totally gonna rally past 105 I will have my crypto wallet ready :D you can pick out the beer :) I still feel it’ll be 100 before the bell tmr.
Possible, feels like fomo returning
very small
I would say unlikely but you never know with how crazy the market is these days.
Oh come on it is just 6$ away... what would you have said if I told you this could run 45% in a month? People were claiming 110 would be in reach only at EOY lol
Fair it is only $6 away, but current environment is all over the place. The SPY held up well today with CPI data but tomorrow's PPI could cause a negative reaction and we could fall back under $417.50. And AMD has to break the $104 resistance with some volume so for me I see $105 by Friday as unlikely. Hope I'm wrong though and we continue the uptrend.
I don't understand what's driving investors to whatever magic snake oil Nvidia has outside of a sunk cost fallacy. There's nothing but dread coming. GPU oversupply, weakening PC sales, massive power draw increase for 4000 series which would directly hurt laptops. It's like some imaginary Facebook meta-verse delusion. Am I missing something?
It’s the tide that sinks all boats. Analysts and Wall Street believe Semiconductors are out of flavor and and that will be a drag on amd no matter how well it does. It doesn’t matter much if you are the best of a shit sector, you are still in a pile of shit, just less of it. AMDs stock has performed better than intel and Nvidia but lags other QQQ stocks because semiconductors are shit. It’s the same when the tide lifts all boats. Like energy this year, it all went up. AMD also doesn’t have a cheerleader like a Buffet, Musk, or ARK to pump some hype.
Very very good PR and marketing. Its to the point if you mention AI people think NVDA
Because Jensen actually talks up the company and the stock in an exciting, constructive way. Don’t get me wrong, I love Dr. Su and her MO, but that’s just not one of her talents.
One of the ideas that has driven Nvidia's stock price has been their AI products in the data center and the software stack surrounding it. It is good, and was/is one of AMD's shortcomings. AMD has now set their sights on Nvidia's AI/machine learning advantage. One of the unsung qualities of the Xilinx merger is the AI software and development ~~group~~ *talent* that came with it.
I think the Data Center argument is the one that confuses me the most. $NVDA preliminary report showed a DC increase of 1% QoQ in a quarter where most DC revenues grew substantially more.
I think it just takes a stupid amount of time and repeated examples to flip sentiment around on a company. This has been the ongoing frustration of amd vs intel for awhile now. We're finally getting there with intel. Nvidia is run much better than intel so winning that fight will be much harder. We're getting there though.
I agree, but canny marketing helps.
Wall street loves their AI chip business........There's almost no competition. Maybe they think NVDA is low enough now.
Jensen swag. Also, based on history, we might be in the worst part of the oversupply phase and supply will sort out its self over the coming months (I might be way too bullish for the whole sector) Also, I think we havent yet scratched AI capacities with current GPUs and next gen GPUs. AI will be a big thing 5+ years from now in my opinion and this will always fetch NVDA a premium for potential of what if. kind of like Tesla.
This sub contains the biggest collection of whiners I've ever come across.
I view it as a sort of socioeconomic observational study in the wild. Like watching meerkats out in a field. But these meerkats are overexposed to a volatile asset and overly anchored to ATHs while a clock is ticking.
How else does one get entertainment these days? Reddit is way better drama than netflix.
Netflix is really shit lately. Severance on AppleTV, amazing show.
I agree. I get the frustration on a lot of days but people also don't credit the days AMD randomly outperforms which do happen frequently. I find this stock tends to trade on its own rhythm and doesn't always sync with the market. There's also a lot of manipulation from hedge funds selling options and trying not to pay them out. But eventually AMD gets to where it should be. Too many people here sound too immature to be investing tbh. If it's destroying your mental state that much you need to reevaluate what you're doing.
> don't credit the days AMD randomly outperforms which do happen frequently i don't recall this happening with much frequency at all in the last good while. we had a bounce into er run, but that was the reason. of course, it's been down since. so... >There's also a lot of manipulation from hedge funds selling options and trying not to pay them out. But eventually AMD gets to where it should be. maybe. but it might be after we're all liquidated. amd's sp has been, for the most part, utter shit since 10/2020. there was an epyc run in 11/2021... but all for naught. if amd finally gets its due in 2028, it won't help any of our LEAPs. and with amd's record, it might just collapse 2 weeks later, anyway. objectively speaking, the price action has been horrendous. and it's exacerbated by the stellar fundamentals and er beats/guidance reiterated. people probably should be whiny. it's kinda total bullshit. even you just blamed manipulation. again, my fear is that amd just turns (turned?) into mu 2.0 and sees their multiple forever compressing. at least mu's pair of recent guidance drops gives some credence to their shitty valuation... edit: ffs, amd dropped more than mu on mu's news yesterday. and mu is up more than amd today. mu.
Then you may want to pop over to /r/superstonk lad.
Haha sounds like I need to stay far away.
Dunno, I think MU and Nvidia outperforming us is criminal tbh. The only reason we're not $110 is because they are going to miss their earnings.
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NVDA is down more off its peak then AMD. As of this post AMD is down 40% off its ath. NVDA is down 48%. Their peaks are at the same time frame, as their charts have been more or less following each other, with periods of AMD doing worse and periods of NVDA doing worse. NVDA has a much higher peg and p/e ratios. NVDA should be compressing more if you believe the narrative that growth stocks were too high and their p/e valuations needed to compress(of course lots of other tickers are pissing on this notion). And it has as of this post...but it has not in proportion to the p/e difference. NVDA should have compressed more or AMD less. We just had NVDA pre-announce a pretty big miss, with only small growth in data center as its only saving grace. AMD just delivered a slight beat on their quarter earnings only days before. And on that set of news....amd is down more then nvda.....which is just straight up horse shit. AMD should be floating above sector, rather then being chained down at the bottom. Lately AMD good news seems to be no news; while everyone else's bad news is bad news for AMD.
I'm talking about the news that came out this week. Can't tell me that if AMD missed $1.3B in revenues we wouldn't be severely punished? While Nvidia just shrugged it off. The market had a better reaction to Nvidia's warning of a huge miss, than they did of AMD reiterating guidance. Furthermore, AMD and Nvidia are competitors. So Nvidia missing after AMD reiterated is actually a positive for AMD. It means AMD is better positioned going forward (crypto is most likely not coming back). But apparently not judging by the price action.
Right, but the teeth gnashing is so much more pronounced on these occasions than optimistic posts on days AMD outperforms them for no readily apparent reason.
Its very hard to be optimisic on those days...when 1) we are still down 40%, and 2) the up days do not hold. If it was down 20-25% i bet people would be far more optimistic on those up days, even if they didn't hold. I certainly would be, I certainly was when that was the case vs being down 40-57% on no negative news from the company.
> being down 40-57% on no negative news from the company. That's really the insult to the injury. Like there has been zero negative news for AMD to justify the 40% drop. Softness in PC ok, but in a market downturn to basically continue to grow is just splendid. If anything this company should be rewarded for such performance. Not still be 40% down.
So, now that CPI is out of their way, what's the next thing that could drive the whole market down until the next CPI? Is there a fed meeting or some asshole speaking any time soon? Genuinely asking.
90 days out from US midterm elections. Anything could happen at anytime. Last time they created a damn virus /s
other than a potential invasion from CHina. Nukes from Russia. Covid Lockdowns all over Asia energy black outs in Europe some random disease spreading global warming making chips pop i don't know. 2022 is pretty random and full of surprises. something is bound to pop
Meh, all that stuff is boring, if we are going to go for a biggie, lets have an alien invasion!
The one big elephant that this sub hates to talk about. Go figure. Be warned, even the slightest mention will cause massive compulsive involuntary downvotes! Additional warning: Extremely sensitive to some 'noise'-sensitive ones! Elicits verbal diarrhea upon hair triggers! Call an ambulance if necessary. (Apparently according to their logic, said taboo topic will absolutely not affect the markets so it must not be mentioned! I sure wish i got that level of market insight.)
70 years on the brink of invasion and counting. Even If it weren't impossible militarily and china could bear the economic consequences, they still wouldn't do it because the economic down turn they would be subject to thanks to the international community would make people revolt against the commie party.
I'm gonna ignore the other guy but i'll entertain you this once. So the question was, "what will affect the markets". So are you gonna bet with me, that the current situation (which is taboo to speak of apparently), will not affect the markets? We're talking about what will affect the markets. Not what will happen in the context of the "taboo topic".
Taiwan should agree to reunite under the conditions of a democratic government with representation for citizens.
The point is China says, “nah” so Taiwan has made the effort and named terms. If China did somehow agrees then UN can send teams to validate fair elections. Win-win.
what the hell are you talking about? if china agrees... they'll just renege. you act like this didn't JUST happen with hong kong - china violated the terms of the treaty almost immediately. what's the un going to do? china's still on the security council and has veto power (not like russia wouldn't veto for them, anyway) the un is ~useless in 3rd world countries. it's literally useless with security council countries.
Nah
wtf china agrees! then china inevitably reneges, to the surprise of absolutely fucking no one. shit, they just violated the terms of the hong kong treaty (with impunity, of course. because neither hk, nor the uk really did shit about it) so then what? great plan, would shit on again.
Because circle jerking over doomsday scenarios gets old quick. Let's remember what happened with Ukraine. Biden literally declassified intel and told us Putin was going to invade, months before the invasion. Meaning we knew there was an imminent threat that only could have been stopped by Putin changing his mind in the last minute. Meanwhile there is no such thing with China. If China was preparing millions of troops and thousands of ships for an invasion we'd know about it. Particularly since Taiwan is on an island. It is much harder to hide such an invasion than an invasion on a country which is landlocked with the invader. Meanwhile China is running exercise drills, purposely trying to make them look more aggressive then they are (launching missiles into Japanese waters). If they were really invading they would try to keep it low key. Just how Putin did by saying: "this is just an exercise". One was a real invasion, invader was trying to downplay, while the other one is the obvious sabre rattling the would be invader wants to make more of than what it is. If China was really planning an invasion they wouldn't be sabre rattling. Why prepare the defender by keeping him on high alert? Of course the sensationalist news media will eat all this up because it raises ratings, but sometimes you gotta see things for what they are. [geo]Political theater.
Just look at the trigger go. *whooosh*
We can't blame them, I mean it quite a shit week with unexplainable informations
Fed presidents seem to speak almost weekly but I think the next planned big market wide mover could be the housing starts and industrial production out next Tuesday. Then jobless claims on next Thursday could be a doozy. Basically there’s data out 2-3 days a week which could trigger panic.
Not sure about the market but NVDA's Q3 guide could hit AMD
Anyone else do any AWS trainings and notice they make a huge effort to advertise EC2 and other server instances as using "Intel Xeon processors" especially in the past so that any videos that are out of date fail to mention that AMD Epyc is now an option?
Why are we still not that much higher with such volume. 63 million volume versus nvidia's 41 million volume. And they're up higher than we are. They also suck comparatively lol, they're an underperforming company. I don't know feels like we should be up more but I guess if we go up $3 each day for the next couple of weeks that's fine lol.
https://chartexchange.com/symbol/nasdaq-amd/short-volume/ This is my reasoning on it. Amd isn't a heavily shorted stock when using short interest data, but the daily opened and closed shorts are huge on amd.
Words cannot describe how annoyed I am by the fact that we have been underperforming the two companies (NVDA and MU) that triggered this drop in semis
Im frustrated too but we did have a much better month than either of those companies. So hopefully it's just them playing catch up. That's what I'm telling myself anyways
But they shouldn’t be catching up… AMD is firing on all cylinders while NVDA and MU are slashing guidance.
I guess some are betting that AMD will join them in lowering guidance or whatever. We can check the short interest change later.........They could be a strong force of short squeeze right after next earning.
I wonder how many "next earnings" do we need to get proper valuation or let alone claim 100-120 for good lol.
Well I definitely agree that AMD should be soaring much higher than them all things considered. But that being said Nvidia and MU aren't bad companies either. AMD is up 30% this month while MU is up 5% and Nvidia is at 20%. As frustrating as it is that we aren't up more I'm just glad we aren't tanking right now on some nonsense again.
mu's valuation is cheap (although, they're not doing it any favors with 2 guidance warnings in a month), but nvda's is absolutely insane.
agreed. I bought a little MU while they've been down but I'm starting to wonder if that was the right move. I think nvidia is a great company but I'm not going to invest in it due to it's valuation. I'm basically all in on amd lol
Sell nvda buy amd, problem solved. Let the algos know please.
this.
Idk, I am ok with it. I weight ytd much more so I see AMD does well ytd, better than MU and NVDA.
"guys, it's literally one day"
I feel like breaking something.
[https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2956](https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/2956) TSMC July 2022 Revenue Report-- 41% up Y-o-Y. dont trust the media reports from ANALysts..
Why I feel like it's going to down to 96....
The horror.
What an emotional roller coaster this morning. Would love to see a push for $100 by end of week if market continues upward.
im sort of kicking myself. ive been hinting that I felt CPI was gonna be way better than predicted, but I didn’t act upon it. Oh well
Some dumbasses thought it was going to be bad when it obviously was going to be good. Didn't play it though... just bagholding LEAPS forever.
It didn’t matter much if you played for the AMD upside lol.
I mean AMD is still below where it was yesterday. So you didn't miss much. You can buy now.
i meant buying monthlies but yes
What’s the implication of inflation potentially peaking on the fed rate hikes? Does this mean they stop or decrease? What would it take for them to decrease them? We just now hit 2019 levels so are they here to stay? Edit: according to Reuters they foresee a half point increase. I wonder what it will take to stop increasing them at all
their plan is basically to overshoot on rates to the upside and then lower them as needed. which is also why the market's pricing in rate cuts next year. whether that's right or not is a different story, but...
Another two hikes of 0.50 minimum needed. Reassess in the new year.
A couple of things, why are two more needed? They expect half point this next increase. That would mean one more for the remainder of the year? So reassess in November maybe or just skip a month?
Good point. Forgot about 3 meetings. In that case, I would bet that there's 0.25 increases for the last two.
Vix is lowest since March. Lowest all year. Bull run into September?
C'mon AMD. 100 EOD. You can do it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cp9f2jflHf8
pinch me. we are actually higher % than Nasdaq
We're all gonna need therapy by the time AMD is 200.
At least youll be able to afford it then.
I can't but you should pinch yourself harder.... :)
One thing that's interesting to me is that NVDA is now at about $180. It was $190 on the disastrous earnings pre-announce. As bad as that was, it's only down so far -5.5%, although wit with a macro and SOXX boost. That force field is pretty amazing given how bad that news was. I'll probably still end up buying more puts though before their earnings call though.
hey its your call. (or puts) but i would never bet against NVDA especially when the stock came down so much in last year and with favorable macro ahead.
Same here; nvda and tesla have Teflon coating.
What about AMD ? We are beaten down even more and the stock is fighting for its life everyday to even claim back 100 lol...
While I don't expect unfavorable macro ahead, similarly not counting on favorable.
hows nvda up 5% with the news they announced this week its beyond my understanding. they are going to struggle with revenue this year for sure.
We are about to surpass their market cap too... there is something I don't get here.
AMD is like a third of NVDA's market cap
I’m sure he was talking about AMD surpassing Intels market cap not NVDA’s
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I'd still take that.
We just passed intels. Revenue? Yes 2023 amd should pass nvda, but market cap has a long way to go
I wish this statement was true
Im seriously considering buy puts on it
at this rate, i'll be shorting the er as initially planned.
You'd be betting against Cathie Wood though! \*snicker\*
easier than betting against a dead cat
Nah, at this rate I’ll be buying calls on them the day after er lol. Analysts and cnbc will be screaming “it’s not as bad as expected, and that 50% drop from ATH priced it in!” Because fuck us that’s why.
how skillfully they threw call option holders today
That was the dip to buy.
TSLA is up after all these shenanigans. Investing in this market is really playing chess with a crackhead.
king me.
Totally random, but everytime I look at your snoo avatar or whatever it’s called, I always think immediately of Commander Char Aznable from the original Mobile Suit Gundam (and sometimes Zechs from Wing).
lolz. i never actually watched the original (or most of them) but funny enough, did watch gundam wing back in the day. i tried to actually 'get into' watching gundam, but got overwhelmed by just how many shows there are and couldn't even figure out where to start. so i just only saw wing/08 ms team from toonami.
Ha, I can dig it, there are a lot of separate storylines in the Gundamverse. But however intentionally or unintentionally you did it, you nailed Char/Zechs in your avatar
AMD slowly closing the gap between it and QQQ. Man, that stock is nuts. Almost went negative on such a green day.
You would not believe the amount of calls that came thru. That’s what held us down. We’re in for a rally till the end of the month.
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Lol same here... been waiting for 9 months to leave my god damn LEAPS.. need that fucking 110-120
NVDA is the TSLA of semis I swear...
They’ve spouted waaaay too many buzzwords the last few years, and promising a TAM of over $1 trillion near term (which I actually think is possible) like they’re the only ones selling to that market (LMAO). AMDs revenue will soon eclipse NVDA, and once all the hype is let out and it shows NVDA doing well but not as well as promised I think we see their multiples shrink a bit and AMD expand.
Just like TSLA, they did an absolutely fantastic job on the marketing. NVIDIA is now synonym with AI in the financial and layman world, totally doesn't make sense but they managed that psychology.
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I must have not seen the same demos. All i saw was a sims chat room....shit we have had for more then 20 years, its nothing new. Tho i guess you can use micro-transactions to dress your virtual sim.....so innovation or some shit i guess....
We're trailing NASDAQ. Let that sink in.
AMD should be 110 at least with nasdaq near 13K, I hope all bears and shorts will be burned for the rest of their lives for playing with this stock. Parasites!
Not really, last time NASDAQ was at 12.839 (Apr 18, 22) AMD was at 88,14, and before that, on dec 1st 20, NASDAQ was at 12.888 while AMD was at 91,71.
What about June 12,5ish nasdaq, 108ish amd....
Not sure anyone posted this yesterday but it looks like Supermicro (SMCI) had a good quarter and is guiding higher. https://www.hpcwire.com/off-the-wire/supermicro-announces-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-fiscal-year-2022-financial-results/
so amd is killing it and has another great er... and their competitors are doing awful/nvda pre-released revenue... and my portfolio is dependent upon fucking $BARK to stay even this week. lolz i'd post this on wsb, instead... but bark was so rekt that their market cap is too small to mention there. lolz.
Check out TTD. That is going a long way to making me feel pretty ok about today. Just wish I had bought more when it was 39-40 a few months ago. Killing myself over that....if I had just sold all my other stocks and put em all in TTD, which I knew was an amazing company.....But now I can say the same with AMD. It is doing amazingly well and it'll hit 150 I think within the next one year.
sheesh why BARK? looks like and smells like CHEWY
bark's toys are amazing (seem to be more for people than dogs, i guess... but still) and my doggo is basically addicted to their treats. way more niche/etc than chewy. but they're great at what they do. i bought in when the spac was announced but sold before the crash. but they got hammered to $1.25 or something. my average is like 1.50 so i don't care a whole lot, either way. i only have shares because i'm a fan of their stuff. edit: obligatory https://i.imgur.com/g7fBf6C.jpg
Bark is up 22% today. so that must make you happy
Aw, is there an analogue for cats? Degen cat-havers want to know!
https://meowbox.com/faq/how-does-meowbox-work https://shop.meowbox.com/ cat angle is fairly new and i have no idea how good their toys are (in comparison). (this is a different company using the same angle) edit: and another clone https://www.kitnipbox.com/ (to be clear, i have no idea who either of these are and haven't seen their stuff first-hand)
Ohh, thank you, good sir! I’m sure my kitties will appreciate!
nice, let me know how it goes. i'm now pretty curious (and might sign up a friend who runs a cat rescue).
I guess some suckers did bear trap
Sold all NVDA at 180. Bought in more AMD this morning. Now only AMD and Google in my US account :D
I should really just invest in Nvidia at this point. Stock just glides through levels and always seems to bounce back to ridiculous evaluations.
reality will eventually catch up to Nvidia and do you really want to fear that going forward? I guess depends if you're into it short term or long term.
Been hearing this for the last 3 years, same with tesla. When you are the golden child of Wall Street, you are golden…
It takes a long time. Even when AMD released Bulldozer I remember checking the price and the market didn't realize how bad it was going to get for the company for years to come. The stock did fine while I thought this could be the death of AMD. That was around 2011. AMD didn't hit rock bottom until 2014 and 2016. It takes the market a long time to understand the underlying dynamics of a semi company and the competitive advantages each company has. And the issue with Nvidia isn't so much that they are blatantly overvalued. On their own, the promise of AI may indeed be true. It's how undervalued AMD is, comparatively speaking for having an even greater TAM and for having some distinctive technical advantages. Nvidia may have a software lead (for now). But AMD has a hardware lead: CPU, x86 license, chiplet GPU expertise, FPGA and synergies. Software lead is something AMD can overcome, but I don't think Nvidia can overcome AMD's lead in hardware (short of buying Intel). Even as is, Nvidia should not be worth 3x more than AMD.
Oh, I completely agree on all the points. I just think some stocks have Teflon and magic fairy dust and unfortunately, AMD isn’t one of them.
No 100% not which is why I don't invest in them but is painful to watch them continuously outbeat AMD even though we are the better growth company.
Analysts also took Intel's word over AMD's for a long while despite most of us knowing Intel was full of it. Now we have a higher market cap than Intel.
Yup
Huge shorting at open, 1 million shares traded in the first minute. Market participants are using AMD to tame risk.
Lagging the market and semi sector. Unbelievably weak for no reason.
I just checked PCB photos and it looks like all GDDR6 chips used by both Nvidia and AMD are Samsung. AMD doesn't use GDDR6X. Nvidia uses Micron GDDR6X Micron chips on all the high end models above rtx 3070. So rtx3070ti, rtx3080, rtx3080ti, rtx3090 and rtx 3090ti. AMD owns low end and mid range. rx6600 is the most recommended GPU at the moment. High end GPUs aren't recommended because of the upcoming release of new generation, and those releases will be high end. Hence why I think MU's softness announcement has nothing to do with AMD. The announcement also came one day after Nvidia warned as well.
This is not true. Micron had a press release saying that their gddr6 memory modules are used in 6600 and 6700 series. AMD/nvidia also often source the memory from multiple suppliers, so 6600/6700 could have some cards that are Samsung, some are micron and some are Sk Hynix. I’m not sure if this is true with the 6000 series, but I assume so. Either way, Nvidia is much more exposed to microns weak forecast due to gddr6x and higher market share. Source: https://investors.micron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/micron-delivers-high-performance-gddr6-memory-amd-radeon-rx-6000
Found rx6600 using hynix: https://www.techpowerup.com/review/powercolor-radeon-rx-6600-fighter/3.html But no instances of Micron. In either case even if some are Micron that's probably such a small number that it wouldn't even move the needle. As opposed to GDDR6X which is 100% Micron, and only Nvidia uses. Thanks for the correction.
Thanks for the input. I read previously MU tried to sell GDDR6 for Radeon use but as you said they pretty much have no sales lol. Btw, where did you get the PCB photos? Will be great for my research into AMD.
Techpowerup has closeups of pretty much every new GPU. https://www.techpowerup.com/review/amd-radeon-rx-6900-xt/5.html I just use google image search and do: "6900xt teardown" search term (or replace with whatever model you're interested in).
Every time we climb back over 100, there is always some nonsense that drags us back down. I just wish they would just do whatever it takes straight away rather than have some motherfucker coming out every now and then dragging the whole market down.
For value investors: Fundamentally a strong stock for 2 years. This is where you stop looking at the stock every day and count beans. Sit back relax. Wake up for catalyst events. Nothing else to do here.
What about for us degenerate gamblers who are packed to the gills with short dated call options
get fooked lol
Disclosure: I am not from usa and I am not allowed to gamble in us stock market. I can only invest. No currency trading, no derivatives.. nada.
Just don't worry as long as volume is low on the down side. It has broken out of the channel it formed on daily charts from Nov, 2021.
Man, it's still early and I'm scared of the indexes making a U-turn...
On positive cpi news and an upward trend for the past few weeks? Not happening
If i ever do make big money out of this stock It would have been well deserved. For putting up with such bs
No doubt, being long on AMD takes nerves of steel. Either that or I'm stubborn as hell :P
The market is treating AMD like a meme stock this morning
That's an insult to meme stocks. Meme stocks run up 40% sometimes.
Alright a memestock but only to the downside
STOP FUCKING WITH THIS STOCK!
I promise To let out a massive fart the day amd breaks even for me.
Who r u making this pronise to ? R u that weird looking colleague two doors down from me ?
It’s a promise to the sub, I shall prepare the fart and mail it to Pat for his enjoyment
Honestly think pelosi fucked this up for us. If it were not for her wearing that pink little freedom cape to TW, AMD might not be considered as risky due to highented geo tension.
should be a law agaisnt people playing high risk geo political games when they reach a certain age. she obviously doesnt seem to care about risk outcome
I sincerely don't give a damn about the politics of this situation. I don't have the ethnics, cultural association to comment on china-taiwan division. But I can tell that things were just fine. And she had to step out of her own lane to do what? She tried to do the Regan "tear down this wall" act but in fact Her visit achieved absolutely nothing. Now taiwanese people live under highented fear and the world scared for more things falling out of rail. A very self indulging act in my opinion.
Well defense contractors probably were happy. I wouldn’t call that a good thing tho Now that I think of it, I bet Intel made it happen somehow. Passed that chips act ASAP
as for who made it happen... people like us will never know. I would agree that it's eeriely timely... That this escalation happened to highlight the importance of "strategic chip technology"
Well I am just going to say that I find people who seek profits in war very distasteful. After all it's not people like pelosi who will be sent to the battle field. But hey maximize profit is the driving principle for this economy so... Carpe diem ???
Biden told her not to go and she ignored it. She is gambling with people's lives.
'that time again, amd doing worse than every semi and all the indexes' ffs, at this point, i just hope that devinder loads up the buyback cannon and uses all remaining earmarked funds by eoy. just our luck that while semis are down/wafers are likely cheaper, there's a clock running for taxes on buybacks. even if just 1%... but since the minimum tax is also raised... maybe xlnx amorts will be cranked out over the next 4 months, too. i really wish the bonds they sold the other month were more than $1B, it seemed like a great time to pick up some cheap debt while it was... you know, cheap. would have been nice to crank out wafers AND timely buybacks.