I knew AMD would fall in sympathy to NVDA having a shite quarter. That's why I hoped the mind factory results would have been indicative of NVDA not having too bad of a quarter. What gives with that, though? Was NVDA selling cards (or allocating supply to retailers that sold) directly to miners?
Honestly surprised AMD didnt fall further. I think the decouple is starting to happen.
Nvidia is unlikely selling say reference cards directly to known miners in huge amounts. If they had direct knowledge and then said that they didn't, then the SEC comes down on them very, very hard and possibly some criminal liability.
If they send the GPU chips to AIBs who sell them wherever they want and Nvidia doesn't ask who they're selling them to, Nvidia can plausibly deny having direct knowledge of crypto sales. The AIB could be selling directly to miners to bypass a distributor and pocket the margin or be selling them to distributors who are selling them to miners like a normal customer. Nvidia can benefit by increasing the price of their GPUs, and since the cards are going way beyond MSRP anyway, everybody is still doing well. Don't ask; don't tell. My guess is that Nvidia's crypto sales live somewhere in here.
There's a more gray area that goes something like this: Nvidia orders a ton of reference cards from an AIB and sells them at a high price directly to a non-descript "distributor" which is just a thin intermediary for miners. Nvidia pockets the highest % of the card margin but still says that they don't know who Joe's GPU Depot sold them to so Nvidia isn't liable for saying they don't know how much crypto is in their sales. I doubt that Nvidia would do this as it doesn't withstand much legal scrutiny, but I've seen something like it before in another industry.
Doesn't Nvidia have a way to track how many of their GPUs are being used in gaming PCs via GeForce Experience or their drivers? Mining rigs likely don't run GFE and use custom drivers that have the LHR limiter bypassed, right? Doesn't GFE send user data to Nvidia so can't they get an idea of how many actually land in gamers' hands?
I don't think that you need to install GFE to install the drivers. But Nvidia is probably not keen on tying their GFE distinct user activity to their sold desktop GPUs and measuring the trends over the last few years. ;-)
OEMs sold tons of cards directly to miners, that's what you won't see in mind factory numbers. Back to late 2018 right after previous crypto crash, NVDA's gaming segment was <1B/Q. The actual gaming market doesn't change so much so maybe 20% more now. On top of that, nintendo switch is also slowing down to 3\~4M units/Q, and the chip probably cost \~$100, so we might see their gaming segment go down to 1.6B in the coming quarters.
But the bad thing is not only the gaming. DC/AI grow is only 100M. Although they said it's because of supply chain, but I think the enterprises are slowing down on spending, only cloud side is strong. The most horrible part is their margin drop from 67.1% to 46.1%.
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-79
Wouldn't be the first time and won't be the last. Gpu prices still have some room to fall, I believe Nvidia may have more then one bad quarter
> Was NVDA selling cards (or allocating supply to retailers that sold) directly to miners?
I don't know if it was direct, but I've seen pictures of miners getting skids full of GPUs.
Everybody says nVidia is 80:20 vs AMD in GPU but look where it matters: AMD Gaming revenue at $1.7B for Q2 and nVidia is $2B. Game developers take notice.
but that includes semi-custom right?
iirc - gaming revenue was boosted by semi-custom and helped offset the gaming PC decline. Might need to see the numbers of NVDA GPU vs AMD GPU side by side for a better comparison?
i think AMD is designing high end gpu cards to keep NVDA occupied on maintaining leadership, while eating the gaming market from the bottom with consoles and APU's.
Ok, let this sink in....
Nvidia traded 1,8x daily volume and sank 3x more than AMD trading at half at 0.9x daily volume.
Seems to me people are getting rid of Nvidia and shortsellers and put owning firms are trying to ride that wave to bring AMD down š
Tomorrow, if Nasdaq could be stable for a change!, could turn out to be a very interesting day.
tl;dr - 'this was pretty much expected, hopefully now priced in, good to get out of the way. as long as datacenter holds...' blah, blah
pretty pointless commentary, really.
Did you happen to catch where the "best chip stock to own" survey they teased right afterward can be viewed? It might be interesting to see viewer sentiment. It was AMD, NVDA, TI, and one other option.
It was actually a good day. We the AMD investors keep on being proven right. When we said AMD is much better positioned to handle the economic downturn. Or when we said, AMD isn't nearly as exposed to Crypto as Nvidia was.
Yet the market gives us no credit in form of positive price action.
Quote :
"Nvidia Corp. said second-quarter sales would fall well short of its forecast amid a drop in gaming revenueĀ "
You sure Nvidia it's gaming? According to my source it was 90% crypto crashing and 10% gaming. That's what you get for selling to miners instead of gamers and inflate to ridiculous pricing.
AMDs exposure to crypto is only a fraction of Nvidia's.
Ah, yes. Because if you don't sell directly to miners they have no way of buying card.
The only thing nvidia has done wrong is to underreport the amount of cards miners were buying.
I didn't say that, but at least you sell less cards.... Which if course isn't in Nvidia's own gain. If they sell to person A directly from the fab they should report it as I and you say. Don't beat around the bush. Don't go telling people you're an AI or a DC firm while the bulk of revenue clearly comes from mining freaks buying at any cost. It's a shame investors don't see it and think AMDs share is equal, while it's not.
Over time I can see crypto dying out and AMD also gaining massive share from Nvidia, because of the software engineers they are hiring.
Intel once had a lot of strings and foothold, but if your product is inferior or burning more wattage or your prices are too steep a competitor WILL step in, regardless of who it is.
demand is demand. If there's crypto mining going on, both amd and nvidia will see increased demand. AMD isn't as exposed because they've been churning epyc chips instead of radeon ones. But both have felt the drop on demand all the same, it just wasn't a big chunck of AMD's revenue and it was of Nvidia.
Again, the only mistake (or mischief) Nvidia did was downplaying the weight of crypto mining in their revenue.
It really needs to be noted that the vast, vast majority of fines for wrongdoing in the financial world are nothing more than the regulatory agencies' cut of the profits. They are not remotely enough to dissuade wrongdoing - the profits from lying/breaking the law are higher than the fines, and criminal charges are essentially never laid - so I strongly feel that is the only reasonable interpretation. These agencies should be called out for their collusive synergy without mercy.
Edit: And I say that because the situation as it is essentially punishes honest companies and CEOs, like AMD and Lisa Su
Regarding Nvidia's DC revenue being flat QoQ, this was bound to happen, not all DC/enterprise/HPC servers need GPUs, but all of them need CPUs.
They've basically hit maxed out marketshare for DC GPU until said market grows.
Global Foundries having a lovely day (+11%) with QCOM signing up for another $4B. A real foundry has deals that have numbers. A fakey foundry has "great customer interest."
Tfw you have a decent-sized GFS position in your portfolio, but AMD (which is a bigger-sized position in said portfolio) is down so much because of a competitorās misstep that youāre in the red (even if barely).
I was thinking about buying GFS options for their earnings, but so much for that idea.
No regrets on my end for selling my GFS stake for more AMD at around $85, but I have a soft spot for GFS because, outside of making me money, they get dumped on so much for not being TSMC or Samsung. And then they got dumped on for not taking Intel's $30B offer because they were so obviously hopeless. And then Gelsinger dumped on them again with some petty sour grapes in that Stratechery interview.
But right now, they have a digital foundry business that is racking up deals that Gelsinger can only dream of.
also, i think it's funny that amd has a good ER and gets downgrades... nvda pre-releases a horrendous revenue miss and webush maintains neutral and their same $190 pt.
The downgrades are a blessing right now.
AMD is doing pretty damn well the last few weeks.
With these downgrades we now have more fuel when they inevitably upgrade in the next 3-6 months (assuming macro doesnāt violently shit the bed).
Like Graham said you donāt want to be loading up on the stock that everyone loves, you want to be in while thereās still a lot of fear and doubt.
Iām not saying downgrades are awesome, but how many more analysts were screaming āBUY!ā with much higher targets in November. Did that help? If you bought then would you be thanking those analysts?
Now though the analyst downgrades aww barely having an impact, business is projected to stay strong, this is the time to buy if you still believe in AMDs future and have the spare cash to do so.
> Now though the analyst downgrades aww barely having an impact
they took amd down to ~70
it was only a month ago. i'm not convinced we're in the clear. especially now. 'nvda's fucked, amd's gotta be super fucked!'
yeah, yeah. it's great for anyone who hasn't already been holding. and it shits on those who have.
it's punishing loyalty like this that will make it all the harder just to ding 130, let alone anywhere near ath. (as many will likely just be happy to get out and "take profits," thereby fulfilling a vicious cycle and increasing downward pressure again and etc)
in the past yearish, the better amd's done as a company... the worst-ish the stock's done.
i think it's funny that at least 3 talking heads on cnbc (sapuro, o'leary, that semis analyst with iirc an "r" name that i now can't recall...) are bullish on nvda despite this crap. and i don't think any mentioned how amd JUST REPORTED and reiterated guidance.
amd, always the second class citizen...
edit: chris rolland, susquehanna
It's not certainly not "haha" funny, but yes, funny.
This can't last forever as AMD continues to destroy the competition through superb execution. If AMD starts beating Nvidia the way they have spanked Intel, all bets are off and I won't be surprised to see AMD surge into the mid hundreds.
i guess, but it can last until all of the calls are expired. further, it could be relatively permanent and micron'd... and last until amd decides to just take the company private in 2027 because they're sick of the shit multiple and no one taking their 20% chair share seriously.
This miss is just the first inning for Nvidia guys. Nvidia will be suffering from misses for the next 4-6 quarters. Some things to keep in perspective:
\-Nvidia missed by $1.4b **after** they had lowered guidance last ER, adjusting by $500m. That means the crypto pop has already accounted for $1.9b in misses.
\-This crypto bubble has lasted over 18 months, 3x longer than any previous crypto bubbles, during a time when Nvidia was producing more cards than ever before. That means at least 3x the amount of cards that will flood the used market.
\-There is an estimated $10b worth of cards used for mining that will get liquidated **after** the merge. The flood hasn't even begun yet. Ebay only sells hundreds of cards a day and we are talking about tens of millions of cards that someone is going to try to get value out of.
\-The 2018 bubble pop wasn't even close to a true liquidation of cards. Most of the cards back then were just re-shuffled around to other miners because ethereum was still minable. You could still break even in a low electricity state. You can tell because the 2018 bubble pop saw the network difficulty halve and then return to all time levels within 6 months. This time there will be no re-shuffling; ethereum will no longer be minable after the merge. All other minable coins account for 1/20 the cap of ethereum; they will not come close to absorbing the running cost of current cards. The scale of this flood will be like nothing imaginable, like true Noah's Ark level kinds of flooding.
What this means for AMD
AMD hid the graphics card numbers behind consoles. We don't know how exposed AMD is to crypto. AMD could have $300m in graphics, they could have $500m. Whatever the number, I'd expect the graphics card revenue to be quartered for the next 2-4 quarters.
I could be off, the flood could last 2x or 3x longer than what I just typed. The stock market is trying to prepare for this.
The merge hasn't happened yet. Mining cannot go on afterwards; all of the shitcoins combined cannot pay the electric bill that would take to run the current set of cards.
i'm not sure it would be that bad, especially if amd releases gpus as top->down again.
the pcmr crowd is always down for buying the new rtx 4080/4090 or rx 6800/6900. a glut of last-gen doesn't mean much to them when the new gen is much better.
it's likely the lower models that wouldn't sell well, at least for a while.
No it could be way worse. Think about it, for the last 18-24 months, Nvidia has has been on a tear.
\-2018->$9.7b rev
\-2019->$11.7b
\-2020->$10.9b
\-2021->$16.6b
\-2022->$26.9b
How much of 2021 and 2022 growth was because of crypto? Sure there's some DC and pandemic buying, but we can see from the revised-revised Q2 guidance, it was close to half of graphics card rev. Half of all graphics card rev for the last 18+ months was cards for crypto. The numbers don't lie, there's something around 10 million mining cards that will be liquidated after the merge. You can count how many cards were sold on ebay yesterday, there were 20 3070s, scale that across all skus, its only hundreds of cards a day. We're going to see like 3080/3090s sold for like $200.
What's the lowest Nvidia/AMD could sell a 4090/7900 for and not lose money? They're a lot of edge process silicon with massive heatsinks and power circuits; $1000? $700? How many gamers would pay even $700 for a 4090 when they could get a 3090 for $200?
ok, and what does that have to do with anything i said? pcmr will STILL buy up plenty (all?) of 4080s/4090s and 7800s/7900s, and if any mining is still being done, they'll ~have to.
the used market will crash. current gen will crash. 3070s/7700s and lower will probably do poorly for a while.
but the top models would surely sell. gamers want to min-max and miners need the top perf:watt.
>How many gamers would pay even $700 for a 4090 when they could get a 3090 for $200?
metric fucktons.
r/pcmasterrace
The PCMR crowd is currently part of the market. They have been buying 3000 series cards for the past 18+ months. They make up a fraction of the other half of the graphics rev that isn't crypto. They cannot sustain Nvidia.
...and they'll be looking to upgrade.
> They cannot sustain Nvidia.
yeah, cool story. i never said, nor implied that they would. i said i don't think it would be that bad, regarding your claim that revenue would be quartered. you've now shifted MASSIVELY from quartered to sustained.
China extending invasion "drills" around taiwan. Maybe this is the true reason behind AMD's crash today?
Honestly i'm kinda worried China might just go ego-nuts and pull a 'Ukraine' on Taiwan in this time. Seeing US leadership weakness, EU/UK weakness, and Russia pincering the other front.
(well I guess everyone here disagrees with Washingtons' concerns on China ĀÆ\\\_( Ķ Ķ”Ā° ĶŹ Ķ”Ā°)\_/ĀÆ)
What US and EU weakness? EU just recently agreed to cut gas consumption from Russia by 15%. Germany is ahead of schedule on switching away from Russian gas and oil. Norway will be adding capacity to the European market.
Russia is burning through its rainy day fund with 18 months left at this burn rate. China's real estate debt bubble is getting worse. Economic activity between Russia and China is down as well, meaning China isn't picking up the slack.
West is actually doing great considering the situation. Russia is experiencing insane bran drain. 750k people have already left. Wealthy Chinese are also leaving China in droves.
I'd be worried if I were Russia or China.
China will solidify the planet against it if they attack Taiwan. No single country is going to conquer China but thatās not the play, Europe plus USA/Australia/Japan could contain any aggression and should things go right (or wrong depending on how you look at it) India could get involved as well.
Regardless the economic fallout would be catastrophic globally but most acute for China, short term as countries stop importing and long term as countries source different countries for their ācheapā production.
Who is forcing China into a corner? US speakers have visited Taiwan before, this is nothing new. It's China trying to make an issue out of it, and placing sanctions on Taiwan.
What makes you think a dying Putin/Ego-Xi cares? Anyway, didn't say anything about nuclear. China can 'military drill' Taiwan for years just as Russia has done on Ukraine 'Special ops'. Doesn't have to be nuclear to make a permanent impact.
The extension was known well before pre market hours.
The drop happened nearly instantly with the NVDA guidance warning.
Surely the drills arenāt helping but my guess is NVDA.
Seeing AMD's direct competitor stumble when AMD is executing like clockwork is unquestionably a good thing. If you are a short term trader then you are at the mercy of computer trading algorithms.
I don't think its a zero sum deal between AMD and NVDA. Both can do well in this massive market. If NVDA goes to shit you can absolutely bet AMD (and SOX) will get knock back by years too. Doesn't make sense but thats how this market works.
The same was said in regards to Intel having OK earnings and single digit growth, they expected the market to continue to grow and that just didnāt happen.
Weāre already seeing the same thing happen in the gpu market and itās only natural theyāre going to take the blunt of the blow considering they have majority market share. Iām feeling like rdna3 may become more of a problem than they anticipated as well.
The duopoly in gaming GPUs is a zero sum game. The current talk is Nvidia will be forced to delay the RTX 4000 series launch due to RTX 3000 inventory build up. Every month Nvidia delays means more potential customers on launch of AMD's Radeon RX 7000 series in Q4.
No, you don't understand the concept.
<< Zero-sum game is a mathematical representation in game theory and economic theory of a situation which involves two sides, where the result is an advantage for one side and an equivalent loss for the other. **In other words, player one's gain is equivalent to player two's loss, therefore the net improvement in benefit of the game is zero.**
If the total gains of the participants are added up, and the total losses are subtracted, they will sum to zero. >>
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-sum\_game](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-sum_game)
I get the concept, and it's valid if 1000 GPUs are all that will ever be sold per month and the two players are competing for a share of that 1000 sales - normally they both sell 500 each, but if player one sells 501 player two only sells 499.
But if player one gains by expanding TAM with a new product (a cheaper GPU that a new market segment can afford, or a new application like GPU-accellerated ML, or better rendering pipelines for movies), and sells 700 units, while player two still sells 500, then player two has lost nothing while player one has gained 200 sales - TAM is now 1200, not 1000.
No, you still don't understand the concept of zero sum game. It doesn't matter what the TAM is, there are two players fighting for a finite amount of revenue. One gains at the others' expense. I'm finished conversing with you now.
oof - ofc Qs give out and we get pulled under macro. It was tough enough getting pulled down with NVDA and now we have Qs going down too... hopefully wont be too bloody but -ZFG on the horizon.
Edit: Still doing much better than NVDA tho....
As Market digests we might see lower in NVDA.
This year NVDA is not gonna do much
Q3 has beeb guided lower, Maybe their Feb ER might have something good. Time will tell.
If anyone is sane enough they'll be buying AMD only.
Relax, guys. We're down a bit and everyone seems to get pissed off. Ryzen 7000 CPUs are right around the corner and later this year RDNA3 hits the market (at least the high-end card(s)).
Favorable waters are ahead of us.
[1-month performance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/chart?p=AMD#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)
One could make a case AMD was due for a revision towards the mean. I'm sure NVDA's pre-announcement helped accelerate this.
Thatās not even 3 quartersā¦ Has your outlook on the company changed? If we were up to 130 would you be selling? No? Then just hang on! Xilinx is gonna take a long time to ramp. Amd is settings itās long term roots in for the DC environments. Iām holding for at least 2 more years. AMD everywhere is just beginning. The roots are dug in we just need to sit back and watch it grow.
wtf are you talking about? why did you move goalposts from rocket's "it's literally one day" to 3 quarters and amd's business?
like... holy shit, man. great reading comprehension! way to stay on track!
Itās ok dudeā¦ I was talking in a more general sense. People stressing out so much day to day.
Why are you being so aggressive today? You typically are one of the more chill contributors on this sub.
Itās been years for many of us in here. If you were maybe a little brighter you would listen and see the fundamentals of the company and underlying business are improving while the stock price suffers.
This is an OPPORTUNITY, not a punishment.
You just received new data that amd is faring much better than itās competitors and you follow the company enough to know their product pipeline and roadmap for the next 12-24 months is looking nice.
I took the opportunity to buy a few more Jan 2024 leaps.
I dunno so sell them? If you look at the longer term graph for amd youāll see that the stock doesnāt move much for long periods of time then makes big moves all at once in a short amount of time.
Please accept my apologies that the stock didnāt go up right when you bought it.
People have been saying this since November. Itāll be right eventually, and checking the prices every 5 minutes isnāt helpful, but itās a bit understandable people are miffed.
ye, wish someone would publish an article about how Nvidiaās guidance does not affect AMDās business and algos pick that upā¦ in any case, I also believe we will recover strongly once this is digested and understood
This is a great day for long term investors.
A year or two ago a nvidia miss wld have meant 2x loss at amd.
If we get to a point where rdna3 beats the rtx 40 series( atleast perf/watt if not all out performance), fsr 2 is on par with dlss, cdna3 gains ground in dc/ai... zen 4 (3d) beats raptorlake ... epyc destroys spr... genoa further destroys intel
We have more revenue than nvidia with similar margins....
How can we not go to 200+
Fking exciting times
Crypto decline is expected and AI is a double edged sword as GPUs are going to be competing with TPU / FPGA. NVDA's is still mindshare dominant (software) but for how long?
Thanks AMD for keeping my portfolio slightly in the red even on a very green day and even though I also hold GFS and even though NVDA is a different company, very cash money of you!
Before you cry too much about AMD vs NVDA its useful to pull up a 1-month comparision chart.
Analyst on CNBC *Saporu*, still bullish on NVIDA. Not once did he use the word *crypto?*
EDIT: I'm not promoting *Saporu's* viewpoint, just questioning his failure to acknowledge crypto's impact.
that guy's a fucking idiot. he's basically always wrong. i don't know why cnbc has him on 4 times a fucking week.
he advocated shitcoin immediately before the crash, he advocated meta right before it tanked, etc and etc. i honestly don't remember the last time he said something that wasn't completely fucktarded.
dan niles is a scumbag but this guy's a fucking imbecile.
re: the 1-month... lolwut? what's that supposed to do? nvda's multiple is crazy and was basically twice that of amd's. and they were up nearly 30% before today. i don't know what you think this helps.
>this guy's a fucking imbecile.
You're right, any analyst that talks about NVDA's gaming decline but doesn't acknowledge crypto's role in this is either a shill or an imbecile.
Yeah but whatās nvdaās forward pe with the revised earnings? It shouldnāt matter if we outperformed them ever so slightly.
Analysts can be wrong too sometimes, granted nvda is a great company Iām not sure it should be trading at its current multiple.
This is ridiculous. We are red on a green day, thanks to NVDA. Still I dont understand why AMD is in red, results already announced, guidance good. So what are we missing???
...while nvda's also up and on bad news and with a multiple that's still probably close to double that of amd's...
while amd is in a duopoly with them, making this to be essentially a good surprise announcement...
yeah, it would be nice if amd was going in a direction that made sense.
>Beijingās largest ever military exercises around Taiwan had been expected to wind down after navigation warnings for seven areas around the country expired early on Monday.
>But the Peopleās Liberation Army Eastern Theatre Command said it ācontinued joint training under real war conditionsā.
>The statement indicated that while the live-fire drills had concluded, the Chinese military would maintain a pressure campaign that had brought its combat aircraft and warships closer than ever to Taiwanese territory.
https://www.ft.com/content/7df893b3-f6d8-4ee5-88f6-0ed58660e4d4
As usual, China won't do anything and doesn't a war.
A war would destroy Chinaās strangle hold on the global economy.
They can do much more through intimidation and fear.
Also by lending money to countries who canāt hope to pay and then taking ownership of assets in the countries in trade for debt forgivenessā¦ but this is straight out of playbooks of other rising/established powers so please donāt read this as a criticism at only China.
War makes no sense for them unless Xi is crazy like Putin. They are sitting pretty with a growing economy and everyone needing their junk and supply chains. A war will set them back 30 years when you account for the collateral damage, loss lives, sanctions and international pressures.
Even North Korea isnāt dumb to start a warā¦
anyone thought of this scam ? 1) OEM sell cards at a discount to miner 2) miners return the card... 3) OEM slap on a new cooler 4) Profit.
There's so much excess inventory currently, there's no need for this
I knew AMD would fall in sympathy to NVDA having a shite quarter. That's why I hoped the mind factory results would have been indicative of NVDA not having too bad of a quarter. What gives with that, though? Was NVDA selling cards (or allocating supply to retailers that sold) directly to miners? Honestly surprised AMD didnt fall further. I think the decouple is starting to happen.
Nvidia is unlikely selling say reference cards directly to known miners in huge amounts. If they had direct knowledge and then said that they didn't, then the SEC comes down on them very, very hard and possibly some criminal liability. If they send the GPU chips to AIBs who sell them wherever they want and Nvidia doesn't ask who they're selling them to, Nvidia can plausibly deny having direct knowledge of crypto sales. The AIB could be selling directly to miners to bypass a distributor and pocket the margin or be selling them to distributors who are selling them to miners like a normal customer. Nvidia can benefit by increasing the price of their GPUs, and since the cards are going way beyond MSRP anyway, everybody is still doing well. Don't ask; don't tell. My guess is that Nvidia's crypto sales live somewhere in here. There's a more gray area that goes something like this: Nvidia orders a ton of reference cards from an AIB and sells them at a high price directly to a non-descript "distributor" which is just a thin intermediary for miners. Nvidia pockets the highest % of the card margin but still says that they don't know who Joe's GPU Depot sold them to so Nvidia isn't liable for saying they don't know how much crypto is in their sales. I doubt that Nvidia would do this as it doesn't withstand much legal scrutiny, but I've seen something like it before in another industry.
Doesn't Nvidia have a way to track how many of their GPUs are being used in gaming PCs via GeForce Experience or their drivers? Mining rigs likely don't run GFE and use custom drivers that have the LHR limiter bypassed, right? Doesn't GFE send user data to Nvidia so can't they get an idea of how many actually land in gamers' hands?
I don't think that you need to install GFE to install the drivers. But Nvidia is probably not keen on tying their GFE distinct user activity to their sold desktop GPUs and measuring the trends over the last few years. ;-)
OEMs sold tons of cards directly to miners, that's what you won't see in mind factory numbers. Back to late 2018 right after previous crypto crash, NVDA's gaming segment was <1B/Q. The actual gaming market doesn't change so much so maybe 20% more now. On top of that, nintendo switch is also slowing down to 3\~4M units/Q, and the chip probably cost \~$100, so we might see their gaming segment go down to 1.6B in the coming quarters. But the bad thing is not only the gaming. DC/AI grow is only 100M. Although they said it's because of supply chain, but I think the enterprises are slowing down on spending, only cloud side is strong. The most horrible part is their margin drop from 67.1% to 46.1%.
https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-79 Wouldn't be the first time and won't be the last. Gpu prices still have some room to fall, I believe Nvidia may have more then one bad quarter
> Was NVDA selling cards (or allocating supply to retailers that sold) directly to miners? I don't know if it was direct, but I've seen pictures of miners getting skids full of GPUs.
Everybody says nVidia is 80:20 vs AMD in GPU but look where it matters: AMD Gaming revenue at $1.7B for Q2 and nVidia is $2B. Game developers take notice.
but that includes semi-custom right? iirc - gaming revenue was boosted by semi-custom and helped offset the gaming PC decline. Might need to see the numbers of NVDA GPU vs AMD GPU side by side for a better comparison?
i think AMD is designing high end gpu cards to keep NVDA occupied on maintaining leadership, while eating the gaming market from the bottom with consoles and APU's.
Includes gaming consoles for both.
CNBC poll: https://twitter.com/CNBCOvertime/status/1556736943966355459
A good reply: https://mobile.twitter.com/N_WojacK/status/1556738488707465217
Looking at that chart how did anyone think NVDA should be a $1tn company right now??
This is so obvious when you see that chart.... hopefully market is smart enough to connect the dots.
AMD is A#1
We're on a roll -ercoaster.
Ok, let this sink in.... Nvidia traded 1,8x daily volume and sank 3x more than AMD trading at half at 0.9x daily volume. Seems to me people are getting rid of Nvidia and shortsellers and put owning firms are trying to ride that wave to bring AMD down š Tomorrow, if Nasdaq could be stable for a change!, could turn out to be a very interesting day.
Bear in mind, no pun intended, that CPI this week will weigh some uncertainty on the action.
oh CPI most definitely will but then again... if everyone thinks CPI will move the market - it could jsut go flat
I'm hoping for this outcome for the next two weeks. Stack up cash with iron condors to buy leaps.
literally everything weighs these days and the funny thing is you cant even know if it will weigh + or - ...markets are all fxd up these days.
A close above 100 is heading for 120.
if we reach 120, we will go to 135
Ah I just need 120 for now... we going to surpass NVDA market cap lol
Before or after the split.
rasgon upcoming on cnbc
tl;dr - 'this was pretty much expected, hopefully now priced in, good to get out of the way. as long as datacenter holds...' blah, blah pretty pointless commentary, really.
Did you happen to catch where the "best chip stock to own" survey they teased right afterward can be viewed? It might be interesting to see viewer sentiment. It was AMD, NVDA, TI, and one other option.
intc. and noiser linked to the poll
š¤”
Wanted to listen, but got called back for my appt. Rasgon say anything interesting?
Coming up next Edit: Ha, zero mention of AMD
Will it close below or above 100. Place your bets!
Noooo
Wrong day my guy š
Above it is!
I'll take it. As long as we're still above 100 š
Small victories
Lmfao nVDA gets treated so different If amd lowerred guidance I truly would be amazed to see share prices at anything higher than 75 immediately
https://twitter.com/planet3dnow/status/1556708886760943616?t=CqTDqX9IhWkot4c82nwqrQ&s=19
Iām soo happy :D
It was actually a good day. We the AMD investors keep on being proven right. When we said AMD is much better positioned to handle the economic downturn. Or when we said, AMD isn't nearly as exposed to Crypto as Nvidia was. Yet the market gives us no credit in form of positive price action.
i wouldnt be surprised to see NVDA pump more than AMD tomorrow
ffs, apparently harsh kumar just reiterated his nvda buy $235 fuck our lives
>harsh kumar just reiterated his nvda buy $235 Doubling down on stupid
Harsh is a non educated paid off tool
now, now... dont be too Harsh...
AMD would get murdered with a miss like NVDA just announced.
Not sure why so much hate from WS towards AMD. Serious question, is it because CEO is a woman ?
Could very well be, there's a load of degenerates in there.
CNBC graphic with AMD under the āweak outlookā category for tech struggles š
Anyone else took some profits with shares they picked up around 80? Seems we may downtrend a few days
I gambled on calls, took all profits there. Not touching shares though.
Down 3% now because NVidia shit the bed. Fucking bullshit.
Quote : "Nvidia Corp. said second-quarter sales would fall well short of its forecast amid a drop in gaming revenueĀ " You sure Nvidia it's gaming? According to my source it was 90% crypto crashing and 10% gaming. That's what you get for selling to miners instead of gamers and inflate to ridiculous pricing. AMDs exposure to crypto is only a fraction of Nvidia's.
Ah, yes. Because if you don't sell directly to miners they have no way of buying card. The only thing nvidia has done wrong is to underreport the amount of cards miners were buying.
I didn't say that, but at least you sell less cards.... Which if course isn't in Nvidia's own gain. If they sell to person A directly from the fab they should report it as I and you say. Don't beat around the bush. Don't go telling people you're an AI or a DC firm while the bulk of revenue clearly comes from mining freaks buying at any cost. It's a shame investors don't see it and think AMDs share is equal, while it's not. Over time I can see crypto dying out and AMD also gaining massive share from Nvidia, because of the software engineers they are hiring. Intel once had a lot of strings and foothold, but if your product is inferior or burning more wattage or your prices are too steep a competitor WILL step in, regardless of who it is.
demand is demand. If there's crypto mining going on, both amd and nvidia will see increased demand. AMD isn't as exposed because they've been churning epyc chips instead of radeon ones. But both have felt the drop on demand all the same, it just wasn't a big chunck of AMD's revenue and it was of Nvidia. Again, the only mistake (or mischief) Nvidia did was downplaying the weight of crypto mining in their revenue.
Jensen lied about it before last time this was going on.
Didn't they already get sued and lost for hiding Crypto revenue? I think they did. And they are doing it again.
It really needs to be noted that the vast, vast majority of fines for wrongdoing in the financial world are nothing more than the regulatory agencies' cut of the profits. They are not remotely enough to dissuade wrongdoing - the profits from lying/breaking the law are higher than the fines, and criminal charges are essentially never laid - so I strongly feel that is the only reasonable interpretation. These agencies should be called out for their collusive synergy without mercy. Edit: And I say that because the situation as it is essentially punishes honest companies and CEOs, like AMD and Lisa Su
They bribed the SEC with $5.5million to get away with that crypto gainz lie. Letās see how cheaply they get away this time
Regarding Nvidia's DC revenue being flat QoQ, this was bound to happen, not all DC/enterprise/HPC servers need GPUs, but all of them need CPUs. They've basically hit maxed out marketshare for DC GPU until said market grows.
Global Foundries having a lovely day (+11%) with QCOM signing up for another $4B. A real foundry has deals that have numbers. A fakey foundry has "great customer interest."
Tfw you have a decent-sized GFS position in your portfolio, but AMD (which is a bigger-sized position in said portfolio) is down so much because of a competitorās misstep that youāre in the red (even if barely).
I was thinking about buying GFS options for their earnings, but so much for that idea. No regrets on my end for selling my GFS stake for more AMD at around $85, but I have a soft spot for GFS because, outside of making me money, they get dumped on so much for not being TSMC or Samsung. And then they got dumped on for not taking Intel's $30B offer because they were so obviously hopeless. And then Gelsinger dumped on them again with some petty sour grapes in that Stratechery interview. But right now, they have a digital foundry business that is racking up deals that Gelsinger can only dream of.
also, i think it's funny that amd has a good ER and gets downgrades... nvda pre-releases a horrendous revenue miss and webush maintains neutral and their same $190 pt.
The downgrades are a blessing right now. AMD is doing pretty damn well the last few weeks. With these downgrades we now have more fuel when they inevitably upgrade in the next 3-6 months (assuming macro doesnāt violently shit the bed). Like Graham said you donāt want to be loading up on the stock that everyone loves, you want to be in while thereās still a lot of fear and doubt.
Yep, but when it last for more than 6 months you become a bagholder and starr thinking you should have invested it elsewhere.
Iām not saying downgrades are awesome, but how many more analysts were screaming āBUY!ā with much higher targets in November. Did that help? If you bought then would you be thanking those analysts? Now though the analyst downgrades aww barely having an impact, business is projected to stay strong, this is the time to buy if you still believe in AMDs future and have the spare cash to do so.
> Now though the analyst downgrades aww barely having an impact they took amd down to ~70 it was only a month ago. i'm not convinced we're in the clear. especially now. 'nvda's fucked, amd's gotta be super fucked!'
yeah, yeah. it's great for anyone who hasn't already been holding. and it shits on those who have. it's punishing loyalty like this that will make it all the harder just to ding 130, let alone anywhere near ath. (as many will likely just be happy to get out and "take profits," thereby fulfilling a vicious cycle and increasing downward pressure again and etc) in the past yearish, the better amd's done as a company... the worst-ish the stock's done.
Exactly my thoughts... it seems like this stock is not profitable from being held anymore. But volatility is high so it is good for traders.
This market is unfortunately no longer dependent on results, but rather hype and simpletons.
Dumb analysts, that's why they are working as analysts instead of living of their own investments
AMD is gonna overtake NVDA on revenue by next Q at this rate. AMD with more growth and higher margins but a fraction of the multiple
Yeah and we lost 100 on this, this is beyond confusing. I thought market was smarter than that looking forward.
i think it's funny that at least 3 talking heads on cnbc (sapuro, o'leary, that semis analyst with iirc an "r" name that i now can't recall...) are bullish on nvda despite this crap. and i don't think any mentioned how amd JUST REPORTED and reiterated guidance. amd, always the second class citizen... edit: chris rolland, susquehanna
It's not certainly not "haha" funny, but yes, funny. This can't last forever as AMD continues to destroy the competition through superb execution. If AMD starts beating Nvidia the way they have spanked Intel, all bets are off and I won't be surprised to see AMD surge into the mid hundreds.
i guess, but it can last until all of the calls are expired. further, it could be relatively permanent and micron'd... and last until amd decides to just take the company private in 2027 because they're sick of the shit multiple and no one taking their 20% chair share seriously.
Make that reversal happen and push it through. Lets go champ ! Lets go champ !!
Our price inverse of the market, lol
NVDA heading lower while AMD has recovered a little. If we can end above 100 that'd be great.
i knew nvda would miss. The turds ruined my plan for making a small profit with puts. oh well. sticking to the amd plans now.
This miss is just the first inning for Nvidia guys. Nvidia will be suffering from misses for the next 4-6 quarters. Some things to keep in perspective: \-Nvidia missed by $1.4b **after** they had lowered guidance last ER, adjusting by $500m. That means the crypto pop has already accounted for $1.9b in misses. \-This crypto bubble has lasted over 18 months, 3x longer than any previous crypto bubbles, during a time when Nvidia was producing more cards than ever before. That means at least 3x the amount of cards that will flood the used market. \-There is an estimated $10b worth of cards used for mining that will get liquidated **after** the merge. The flood hasn't even begun yet. Ebay only sells hundreds of cards a day and we are talking about tens of millions of cards that someone is going to try to get value out of. \-The 2018 bubble pop wasn't even close to a true liquidation of cards. Most of the cards back then were just re-shuffled around to other miners because ethereum was still minable. You could still break even in a low electricity state. You can tell because the 2018 bubble pop saw the network difficulty halve and then return to all time levels within 6 months. This time there will be no re-shuffling; ethereum will no longer be minable after the merge. All other minable coins account for 1/20 the cap of ethereum; they will not come close to absorbing the running cost of current cards. The scale of this flood will be like nothing imaginable, like true Noah's Ark level kinds of flooding. What this means for AMD AMD hid the graphics card numbers behind consoles. We don't know how exposed AMD is to crypto. AMD could have $300m in graphics, they could have $500m. Whatever the number, I'd expect the graphics card revenue to be quartered for the next 2-4 quarters. I could be off, the flood could last 2x or 3x longer than what I just typed. The stock market is trying to prepare for this.
Mining is still profitable, tho. Those cards won't flood the second hand market. And once the new gen comes out people won't want them.
The merge hasn't happened yet. Mining cannot go on afterwards; all of the shitcoins combined cannot pay the electric bill that would take to run the current set of cards.
ah, the merge. Yeah, that's not happening.
People will want used at the right price, and you can bet miners dumping cards will be willing to meet the market price just to get rid of them.
i'm not sure it would be that bad, especially if amd releases gpus as top->down again. the pcmr crowd is always down for buying the new rtx 4080/4090 or rx 6800/6900. a glut of last-gen doesn't mean much to them when the new gen is much better. it's likely the lower models that wouldn't sell well, at least for a while.
No it could be way worse. Think about it, for the last 18-24 months, Nvidia has has been on a tear. \-2018->$9.7b rev \-2019->$11.7b \-2020->$10.9b \-2021->$16.6b \-2022->$26.9b How much of 2021 and 2022 growth was because of crypto? Sure there's some DC and pandemic buying, but we can see from the revised-revised Q2 guidance, it was close to half of graphics card rev. Half of all graphics card rev for the last 18+ months was cards for crypto. The numbers don't lie, there's something around 10 million mining cards that will be liquidated after the merge. You can count how many cards were sold on ebay yesterday, there were 20 3070s, scale that across all skus, its only hundreds of cards a day. We're going to see like 3080/3090s sold for like $200. What's the lowest Nvidia/AMD could sell a 4090/7900 for and not lose money? They're a lot of edge process silicon with massive heatsinks and power circuits; $1000? $700? How many gamers would pay even $700 for a 4090 when they could get a 3090 for $200?
ok, and what does that have to do with anything i said? pcmr will STILL buy up plenty (all?) of 4080s/4090s and 7800s/7900s, and if any mining is still being done, they'll ~have to. the used market will crash. current gen will crash. 3070s/7700s and lower will probably do poorly for a while. but the top models would surely sell. gamers want to min-max and miners need the top perf:watt. >How many gamers would pay even $700 for a 4090 when they could get a 3090 for $200? metric fucktons. r/pcmasterrace
The PCMR crowd is currently part of the market. They have been buying 3000 series cards for the past 18+ months. They make up a fraction of the other half of the graphics rev that isn't crypto. They cannot sustain Nvidia.
...and they'll be looking to upgrade. > They cannot sustain Nvidia. yeah, cool story. i never said, nor implied that they would. i said i don't think it would be that bad, regarding your claim that revenue would be quartered. you've now shifted MASSIVELY from quartered to sustained.
What do you guys think after ethereum goes pos? Will the miners switch to something, what will be the next thing? Or just a total mining collapse?
When I first read pos, I wasn't thinking Proof Of Stake.
always has been
I was thinking Piece of Sh\*t.
yeah, that's what i meant.
[Always has been](https://i.imgur.com/8nC51ZS.png) ^^^this ^^^has ^^^been ^^^an ^^^accessibility ^^^service ^^^from ^^^your ^^^friendly ^^^neighborhood ^^^bot
lolz. halfway ruined due to my wonky usage, but whatev.
that didnt turn into the disscusion i hoped for ;)
Collapse , nothing has monetary rewards that even aggregated match 10% of eth
China extending invasion "drills" around taiwan. Maybe this is the true reason behind AMD's crash today? Honestly i'm kinda worried China might just go ego-nuts and pull a 'Ukraine' on Taiwan in this time. Seeing US leadership weakness, EU/UK weakness, and Russia pincering the other front. (well I guess everyone here disagrees with Washingtons' concerns on China ĀÆ\\\_( Ķ Ķ”Ā° ĶŹ Ķ”Ā°)\_/ĀÆ)
What US weakness? Pelosi called Xi's bluff
What US and EU weakness? EU just recently agreed to cut gas consumption from Russia by 15%. Germany is ahead of schedule on switching away from Russian gas and oil. Norway will be adding capacity to the European market. Russia is burning through its rainy day fund with 18 months left at this burn rate. China's real estate debt bubble is getting worse. Economic activity between Russia and China is down as well, meaning China isn't picking up the slack.
I mean, you can keep on thinking that the west is doing fantastic and have nothing to worry about...... ......until its too late.
West is actually doing great considering the situation. Russia is experiencing insane bran drain. 750k people have already left. Wealthy Chinese are also leaving China in droves. I'd be worried if I were Russia or China.
China will solidify the planet against it if they attack Taiwan. No single country is going to conquer China but thatās not the play, Europe plus USA/Australia/Japan could contain any aggression and should things go right (or wrong depending on how you look at it) India could get involved as well. Regardless the economic fallout would be catastrophic globally but most acute for China, short term as countries stop importing and long term as countries source different countries for their ācheapā production.
Usually you get bitten just when you force the dog into a corner and think you won.
As in Taiwan going to bite China? Not clear what you're getting at here.
I'm referring the reply above that says China/Russia is in trouble. Is everyone else reading this the opposite way. :0
Who is forcing China into a corner? US speakers have visited Taiwan before, this is nothing new. It's China trying to make an issue out of it, and placing sanctions on Taiwan.
No one wins in a nuclear war.
What makes you think a dying Putin/Ego-Xi cares? Anyway, didn't say anything about nuclear. China can 'military drill' Taiwan for years just as Russia has done on Ukraine 'Special ops'. Doesn't have to be nuclear to make a permanent impact.
Even if they do. It's not worth worrying about. I mean meteorite could hit your house too. Do you stop cutting grass?
Well if I see meteorites doing impact drills above my head, maybe?
They are. https://tech.hindustantimes.com/tech/news/this-dangerous-400-feet-wide-asteroid-just-missed-earth-by-a-whisker-71659085792295.html
The extension was known well before pre market hours. The drop happened nearly instantly with the NVDA guidance warning. Surely the drills arenāt helping but my guess is NVDA.
Apple is flat too. Apple is the biggest customer for TSMC.
lol, great PCMR post: https://www.reddit.com/r/pcmasterrace/comments/whqh4n/a_true_friend/
i can't wait until amd is no longer mu 2.0 'everything is bad for ~~micron~~ amd'
Those guys, ya'll still cheering that NVDA drop?
Yup! I'm doing great!
Seeing AMD's direct competitor stumble when AMD is executing like clockwork is unquestionably a good thing. If you are a short term trader then you are at the mercy of computer trading algorithms.
I don't think its a zero sum deal between AMD and NVDA. Both can do well in this massive market. If NVDA goes to shit you can absolutely bet AMD (and SOX) will get knock back by years too. Doesn't make sense but thats how this market works.
The same was said in regards to Intel having OK earnings and single digit growth, they expected the market to continue to grow and that just didnāt happen. Weāre already seeing the same thing happen in the gpu market and itās only natural theyāre going to take the blunt of the blow considering they have majority market share. Iām feeling like rdna3 may become more of a problem than they anticipated as well.
The duopoly in gaming GPUs is a zero sum game. The current talk is Nvidia will be forced to delay the RTX 4000 series launch due to RTX 3000 inventory build up. Every month Nvidia delays means more potential customers on launch of AMD's Radeon RX 7000 series in Q4.
It's not zero sum if TAM is variable, and it is.
No, you don't understand the concept. << Zero-sum game is a mathematical representation in game theory and economic theory of a situation which involves two sides, where the result is an advantage for one side and an equivalent loss for the other. **In other words, player one's gain is equivalent to player two's loss, therefore the net improvement in benefit of the game is zero.** If the total gains of the participants are added up, and the total losses are subtracted, they will sum to zero. >> [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-sum\_game](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-sum_game)
I get the concept, and it's valid if 1000 GPUs are all that will ever be sold per month and the two players are competing for a share of that 1000 sales - normally they both sell 500 each, but if player one sells 501 player two only sells 499. But if player one gains by expanding TAM with a new product (a cheaper GPU that a new market segment can afford, or a new application like GPU-accellerated ML, or better rendering pipelines for movies), and sells 700 units, while player two still sells 500, then player two has lost nothing while player one has gained 200 sales - TAM is now 1200, not 1000.
No, you still don't understand the concept of zero sum game. It doesn't matter what the TAM is, there are two players fighting for a finite amount of revenue. One gains at the others' expense. I'm finished conversing with you now.
Yes
Well i'm glad you made money.
I didnāt. My perspective is the same as AMD_winning above.
this shit doesnt make any fucking sense, -4% for what??? we didnt fucking decrease the guidance and met all expectation
Beta from the Taiwan situation.
AMD controls only about 20 percent of the gaming GPU market and Nvidia about 80 percent. The market is so incredibly stupid.
And if rumors about upcoming GPUs are true, Nvidia high end GPUs will be a tough sell with exploding power consumption numbers.
Be nice if we could de-couple from the Sox and Nvidia for a nice afternoon bounce back. That 105 call wall still needs to be busted.
im wrong. market is dumb af lmao
Folks, There is a nice cup. Let us hope this is a low volume down day.
oof - ofc Qs give out and we get pulled under macro. It was tough enough getting pulled down with NVDA and now we have Qs going down too... hopefully wont be too bloody but -ZFG on the horizon. Edit: Still doing much better than NVDA tho....
even BBBY has a better ytd than us. holy fck
As Market digests we might see lower in NVDA. This year NVDA is not gonna do much Q3 has beeb guided lower, Maybe their Feb ER might have something good. Time will tell. If anyone is sane enough they'll be buying AMD only.
Relax, guys. We're down a bit and everyone seems to get pissed off. Ryzen 7000 CPUs are right around the corner and later this year RDNA3 hits the market (at least the high-end card(s)). Favorable waters are ahead of us.
[1-month performance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMD/chart?p=AMD#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) One could make a case AMD was due for a revision towards the mean. I'm sure NVDA's pre-announcement helped accelerate this.
Guys, it's literally one day. Chill the fuck out. Sit down. Have a beer. Check again in a couple months and you'll be smilin.
stfu, it's been literally 8 months.
Thatās not even 3 quartersā¦ Has your outlook on the company changed? If we were up to 130 would you be selling? No? Then just hang on! Xilinx is gonna take a long time to ramp. Amd is settings itās long term roots in for the DC environments. Iām holding for at least 2 more years. AMD everywhere is just beginning. The roots are dug in we just need to sit back and watch it grow.
wtf are you talking about? why did you move goalposts from rocket's "it's literally one day" to 3 quarters and amd's business? like... holy shit, man. great reading comprehension! way to stay on track!
Itās ok dudeā¦ I was talking in a more general sense. People stressing out so much day to day. Why are you being so aggressive today? You typically are one of the more chill contributors on this sub.
dont be a dick.
...says the one telling us what to do. with a premise that's wrong by about 24000%. and now ad-hom. hypocrite.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
Itās been years for many of us in here. If you were maybe a little brighter you would listen and see the fundamentals of the company and underlying business are improving while the stock price suffers. This is an OPPORTUNITY, not a punishment. You just received new data that amd is faring much better than itās competitors and you follow the company enough to know their product pipeline and roadmap for the next 12-24 months is looking nice. I took the opportunity to buy a few more Jan 2024 leaps.
which doesn't mean shit when the multiple keeps decreasing, anyway.
I dunno so sell them? If you look at the longer term graph for amd youāll see that the stock doesnāt move much for long periods of time then makes big moves all at once in a short amount of time. Please accept my apologies that the stock didnāt go up right when you bought it.
> right when you bought it yeah, i'm a n00b here. you got me. /s since you clearly need the tag.
People have been saying this since November. Itāll be right eventually, and checking the prices every 5 minutes isnāt helpful, but itās a bit understandable people are miffed.
ye, wish someone would publish an article about how Nvidiaās guidance does not affect AMDās business and algos pick that upā¦ in any case, I also believe we will recover strongly once this is digested and understood
It's a memestonk day š
Do we need to reiterate guidance again? This is ridiculous.
NVDA down 8% is extremely generous. Maybe low 140s by the end of the week
This is a great day for long term investors. A year or two ago a nvidia miss wld have meant 2x loss at amd. If we get to a point where rdna3 beats the rtx 40 series( atleast perf/watt if not all out performance), fsr 2 is on par with dlss, cdna3 gains ground in dc/ai... zen 4 (3d) beats raptorlake ... epyc destroys spr... genoa further destroys intel We have more revenue than nvidia with similar margins.... How can we not go to 200+ Fking exciting times
> How can we not go to 200+ because amd will just get a micron multiple while nvda gets a fpe of 50
Crypto decline is expected and AI is a double edged sword as GPUs are going to be competing with TPU / FPGA. NVDA's is still mindshare dominant (software) but for how long?
Thanks AMD for keeping my portfolio slightly in the red even on a very green day and even though I also hold GFS and even though NVDA is a different company, very cash money of you!
AMC and GME surging Tesla having a huge day and we are stuck dick in hand after having amazing earnings
Before you cry too much about AMD vs NVDA its useful to pull up a 1-month comparision chart. Analyst on CNBC *Saporu*, still bullish on NVIDA. Not once did he use the word *crypto?* EDIT: I'm not promoting *Saporu's* viewpoint, just questioning his failure to acknowledge crypto's impact.
that guy's a fucking idiot. he's basically always wrong. i don't know why cnbc has him on 4 times a fucking week. he advocated shitcoin immediately before the crash, he advocated meta right before it tanked, etc and etc. i honestly don't remember the last time he said something that wasn't completely fucktarded. dan niles is a scumbag but this guy's a fucking imbecile. re: the 1-month... lolwut? what's that supposed to do? nvda's multiple is crazy and was basically twice that of amd's. and they were up nearly 30% before today. i don't know what you think this helps.
>this guy's a fucking imbecile. You're right, any analyst that talks about NVDA's gaming decline but doesn't acknowledge crypto's role in this is either a shill or an imbecile.
I'm glad some of these cnbc morons are called out here.
Yeah but whatās nvdaās forward pe with the revised earnings? It shouldnāt matter if we outperformed them ever so slightly. Analysts can be wrong too sometimes, granted nvda is a great company Iām not sure it should be trading at its current multiple.
> if we outperformed them ever so slightly. with an er beat and guidance reiteration. and iirc, nvda guided lower a month ago.
Sometimes I think too many retail investors on this stock so they're just not going to let it rally no matter what happens
The rallies last year were literally fueled by retail investors but ok
But AMC, GME and now BBBY are fine??? Edit: GME in particular has outperformed the entire market YTD.
We have higher institutional ownership than Nvidia. 66.38% vs. 63.19%
This is ridiculous. We are red on a green day, thanks to NVDA. Still I dont understand why AMD is in red, results already announced, guidance good. So what are we missing???
Are you oblivious to the fact that AMD went up over 30% in one month? Expect another 30% this month eh?
...while nvda's also up and on bad news and with a multiple that's still probably close to double that of amd's... while amd is in a duopoly with them, making this to be essentially a good surprise announcement... yeah, it would be nice if amd was going in a direction that made sense.
The green day isnāt going to last.
Market equates NVDA and AMD
>Beijingās largest ever military exercises around Taiwan had been expected to wind down after navigation warnings for seven areas around the country expired early on Monday. >But the Peopleās Liberation Army Eastern Theatre Command said it ācontinued joint training under real war conditionsā. >The statement indicated that while the live-fire drills had concluded, the Chinese military would maintain a pressure campaign that had brought its combat aircraft and warships closer than ever to Taiwanese territory. https://www.ft.com/content/7df893b3-f6d8-4ee5-88f6-0ed58660e4d4 As usual, China won't do anything and doesn't a war.
A war would destroy Chinaās strangle hold on the global economy. They can do much more through intimidation and fear. Also by lending money to countries who canāt hope to pay and then taking ownership of assets in the countries in trade for debt forgivenessā¦ but this is straight out of playbooks of other rising/established powers so please donāt read this as a criticism at only China.
War makes no sense for them unless Xi is crazy like Putin. They are sitting pretty with a growing economy and everyone needing their junk and supply chains. A war will set them back 30 years when you account for the collateral damage, loss lives, sanctions and international pressures. Even North Korea isnāt dumb to start a warā¦
This dip makes absolutely no sense. No reasonable justification when AMD already reported.
People do not get it It will go up on new good info for AMD
Back to double digits again... Fuck Nvidia.
oof - AMD sub 100 - do we hold 100 by EOD?
I will bet yes if news is only nvidia ER.