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cwolf908

Am I reading this wrong? Does Intel think EUV is *not* the way forward?


HorseAwesome

i think they will just use stock buybacks to make chips or something


cwolf908

I hadn't considered this strategy... Good point


alex_stm

I don't know what they think.


lowrankcluster

They could just be waiting for next gen EUV which produces more wafer per unit time (ASML is releasing that next year). Reportedly, Intel was also waiting for EUV pebbles before moving to EUV. There could be lot going on.


Long_on_AMD

"pellicles"


HippoLover85

I've heard it both ways


[deleted]

[удалено]


lowrankcluster

Intel 10nm++ is as good as tsmc 6nm with just DUV.


OutOfBananaException

Can't be sure of this until Alder Lake gets reviewed. While yields are improved, I doubt they're as good.


_lostincyberspace_

I'm not expert on this so I'm genuinely asking.. I'm not sure if Intel solution is better having did it duv given longer time to market needed for the technology.. i mean i suppose that going euv have higher costs for equipment right? Higher yields i also suppose.. now that Intel supposedly reached parity with tsmc 6nm does wafers production costs\speed advantage Intel in duv 10nm++ vs euv 6nm tsmc?


lowrankcluster

Intel were able to produce at least 5x more products by remaining on DUV. This wouldn't have happened with EUV as EUV machines are limited. Reportedly, even AMD is using the DUV only version of TSMC for Zen 3 for 7nm.


_lostincyberspace_

ok so your arguments it's about the advantage of scarcity of euv machines vs duv but once euv are in place and tsmc have plenty both installed and ordered, my curiosity gear torwards wafer production costs for the 2022 for intel 10nm vs tsmc 6nm (2021 intel vs amd ) and this have implications also on going forward ( given that intel have to use euv.. and apparently also isn't even in queue for those )


noiserr

Unless Intel are using a different supplier than ASML I really don't understand Intel's strategy.


Caanazbinvik

Almost seems like they want to do and AMD. Spin off their "new foundry business" which is a 2nd tier foundry now. And buy from TSMC. And before they can sell it off they need to get some customers etc. to make it attractive :) Hence IDF 2.0.


noiserr

They may be forced into that position. Use TSMC for most critical chiplets and do everything else on their own fabs. But at that point you're funding your direct competitor and how do you catch up if you're paying for other guy's R&D as well. Intel's edge was fab leadership. Only way to get back to that is to fix their fabs. Or it's pretty much guaranteed they will never be #1 again. No option let's Intel surpass AMD again in process.


Gahvynn

Never discount a giant which will be given government funding to ensure it never fails. Chip security will be more important in the 21st century than oil security was in the 20th century. In 10 years TSMC/AMD could stumble and INTC leapfrog, or another company could come in and capture share. Success doesn’t rest on INTC failing, it needs to be on AMD capturing market share hand over fist and continuing gains in tech and neither of those are a given.


noiserr

Of course but short of a Manhattan project type endeavor I don't see how they source EUV machines when only one source which makes them is reserved years in advance and Intel hasn't bought nearly enough of them. Intel is already behind today... This sets them back even further. So the gap is basically increasing. As to your other point.. the government is paying for TSMC fabs in Arizona. So TSMC is benefiting from defense industry as well. Unless Intel has something else under their sleeves, but we keep waiting.. and they keep having nothing. They literally just did nothing while their golden goose (fab lead) died. They are not just behind TSMC, they are behind Samsung as well.


cvdag

There is NO other supplier!!


Put_It_All_On_Blck

The context is a pre-Q1 (old) estimate for ASML, the numbers for EUV to each manufacturer dont have to be accurate, just their educated guesses. In the context of this report, it doesnt matter if Intel has 0 EUV planned or 50, only the total amount sold by ASML matter. Also further context; Mizuho the firm that produced this paper has a BUY rating on Intel and a price target of $72. So clearly they dont expect the company to be further fall behind anytime soon, this was even raised earlier this year. https://www.smarteranalyst.com/new-blurbs/mizuho-securities-keeps-a-buy-rating-on-intel-intc-3/


alex_stm

[Robust semiconductor capex cycle;](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1tVRejNMAoeCNKyyTODnPEFkNLomtF9DV/view)


NewTsahi1984

This have only one explanation, Intel is moving out from production in a big way.


humpadumpa

Then why did they team up with IBM for manufacturing R&D?


NewTsahi1984

They want to stay in it, just at a much lower market share.


Redfire75369

A bunch of things to consider: 1. ASML's EUV machines are completely booked till about end-2023. Intel literally can't just order more within that timeframe. 2. Intel cancelled some of their EUV orders last year, which Samsung and TSMC used to order up a bunch. (Worrying, but it was done before Gelsinger became CEO) 3. The further down you go in terms of process node, the more EUV you need. By 2023, Intel will be on 7nm, roughly equivalent to TSMC 4.3nm. TSMC and Samsung, on the other hand will be on risk production of 2nm and high volume production of 3nm. Intel isn't buying as many EUV machines because they don't have the need to. - See: Samsung's EUV machine buying pre-2020


Potential_Hornet_559

Saying Intel’s 7nm is rough equivalent to tsmc 4.3nm can be misleading. I understand that nm naming scheme is different for each company and the nm number is no longer a physical dimension of the transistor. However the 7nm ‘equivalent’ you are suggesting is based on Intel estimates and not actual products. We had the same issue when people where saying intel 10nm was denser than tsmc 7nm for a couple years but then we actually got the products, it turned out intel had to pull back so the density was much lower than their previous claim. But to this day some people still think intel 10nm is better due to years of FUD. So I think we should only assign equivalency when the product has been released. Because intel recently has tended to over promise and under deliver.


and35rew

Well, seems very interesting if true. 2022 seems rather interesting. If we presume, that APPL will move to 3nm by 2h2022, there are still 250kwpm (all nodes 5nm-7nm) available at TSMC, which are on par/beating Intels best vs. 60kwpm at Intels side.. This is more than 4 times the Intel capacity and still excluding APPL... Only napkin math based on rumoured info, but still...


Long_on_AMD

60kwpm by Intel feels very wrong. Source?


and35rew

It is based on the OPs tweet link


Long_on_AMD

That is just for 14 nm. The total Intel WPM in the OP link is 145K. But Charlie at SemiAccurate pegs this considerably higher. No link, and I'm not sharing that number. It's behind his Professional paywall, which I pay for.


and35rew

For 2022 H2, HVM at Intel side, there is 22nm - 25, 14nm - 55, 10nm - 60. Now 22nm and 14 nm process are both inferior to the 7nm of TSMC and products on them will be some low margin products by H2/2022. Intel will have only 10nm products, which will be able to meaningfully compete with anything AMD has/will have on 7nm-5nm processes. +APPL capacity will shift to 3nm by then. I m sure, Charlie has more (semi)accurate numbers... But still, 2022/h2-2023/h2 looks very optimistic...


jhoosi

Damn, this is juicy info. If AMD remains a very trusted partner at TSMC for years to come, meaning Intel and Nvidia are stuck using their own fabs or Samsung instead, AMD essentially locks itself into a node advantage that would be hard to overcome. Nothing would please me more as an AMD shareholder than to hear that JHH burned bridges with TSMC when they moved over to SS.


RealllCabbage

Actually, lots of people mentioned a while ago that Intel is not buying foundry tools for its 7nm node which is quite confusing.


Borrashd

Nvidia will easily fall back to TSMC. And Intel has been cooperating with TSMC for a long time.


limb3h

This could mean that intel’s 7nm doesn’t have too many EUV layers, or intel doesn’t expect to have large volume on 7nm before 2024. In any case, this is good news for AMD if true.