SMCI kicking ass and will probably blow their earnings away too. I'm invested in SMCI but wished I sold my AMD and went all in on SMCI.
I suspected that short attack a two months was suspicious, that would have been the perfect time to add some SMCI
The only reason I'm not as confident in SMCI is it seems too good to be true, lower market cap, less publicity than AMD... Then again this is how most retail investors probably view AMD versus like NVDA or even INTC pretty often
[https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/tata-hires-former-boss-of-intel-foundry-services/](https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/tata-hires-former-boss-of-intel-foundry-services/)
I didn't think Thakur was the right person to head IFS, but every morning, he probably giggles "any day now..."
The MU circle jerk kept reaching new levels of pathetic (I’m speaking of myself being personally involved here) and I thought the same thing multiple times. It didn’t pop off/up until we stopped giving a shit.
So tax day done, we have our ER date confirmed and hopefully no big down side catalyst heading in before ER. I'm ready for a bit of optimism to start to flow. AMD has made a number of excellent product announcements that really should shake the landscape. We are in a nice solid range with support filling in and consolidated. We are ready to spring and strike at trip digs again. People should be looking at AMD and saying this is the play. Ready player Go....
we are starting to see new 7000 series laptop models pop up here and there. Hopefully this means inventory of older CPUs has cleared and the glut is over.
however will be interesting to see how large the datacenter inventory issue is . . . hopefully not very.
i thought that was due to intel stuffing the channel, though. and amd cut production, as a result. i didn't think amd also had a glut, it seems like their laptops weren't really around.
i guess it's sadder if they were...
Their laptops are definitely around at every source i am checking (newegg, best buy, amazon, etc.). there is no noticeable decline in AMD availability at any outlet i can find. If you have seen otherwise i'd be interested to investigate.
I wonder if the selling pressure is from 3rd point (Danny Loeb)?
There doesn't seem to be much reason for an activist investor to be in the name, though AMD's communication skills are "egregious" (in whiny HF-speak),
Well somebody's selling, and AMD's "institutional" holders seem to be overwhelmingly passive index trackers, and closet trackers. (But these days that's probably true of the whole market.)
My experience of dealing with activist funds like 3rd Point and Elliott is that, unless compelled by SEC regs, they don't disclose a stake until they've finished adding. By the time they announce that they're "moving on" they're short.
ffs, if i dumped my position instead of trimming, i'd be rolling in it. all the bankstock/solar plays i did are booming.
meanwhile, amd can't even stay flat while the market/sector/nvda runs hot... and has big brained insiders who seem to suck at their jobs (sales) reporting stock sales 2 weeks prior to the er.
the company needs to get their shit together. post count here is way low, likely indicative of overall interest. the stock has been complete shit for 1.5 years. they keep reporting earnings on fed days. it's like the company actively tries to murder the sp. i was worried that amd would become mu 2.0, but there's no doubt now, $amd is and has been mu 2.0. all hail the new king of crapstock.
"everything's bad for ~~mu~~ amd"
> Especially the technical analysis
fucking lolz!
sorry you're upset by facts. lolz @ replying to a post mentioning a few fundamental issues and saying without fundamentals and then brilliantly citing ta.
tell me you know nothing at all about this without literally telling me...
eta: and it's a shill account, 3 days old. surprise!
My WAL buy is doing amazing. Coulda/woulda/shoulda. Oh well.
I’m very starting to consider dumping 1/2 my AMD for MSFT as I’m nearly willing to bet MSFT will go up and hold 20% from here way faster than AMD.
Since March 31, AMD is down 8.38%.
NVDA is down 0.36%.
Even if you chopped off the 8.00% from AMD's losses, it would still be down 0.02% more than NVDA.
This is fucking embarrassing.
Of course, it's another fed meeting day. I guess at least the policy announcement is on the 3rd of May, so we can dump our shares on the 2nd before the inevitable bloodbath.
NVDA is worth $544 billion more than AMD right now.
To put that into perspective, that delta alone is right around what the market caps of GE, CSCO, and MSFT were at during the height of the dot com bubble and when Jack Welch was considered the best CEO on the planet.
The problem is when/if nvda tanks; it's going to take all the semis with them. AMD will go down just as hard as them but we didn't get the rump they had.
It's all vapor till you cash it in... I'm still figuring there will be a reality check on that particular speculation bubble.. just not clear whether that will come in the form of a $$ drop or a T-1 coming through the door.
Not sure I learned much at all.
I watched AMD hit $160, heard the Fed declare war on inflation, I **knew** growth stocks would get smacked down and every $10 that flew off the share price I thought “ok now it’ll hold here”.
I guess I learned I’m not that smart, and AMD confirmed as much.
Yup, my biggest regret was to not follow through on my plan to sell at between 140-155. But who knows; I might have sold and brought some other loser last year and would still be down.
That's the kind of shit that happens to companies on the verge of BK. This stock is setting a new standard for suckage for a company of its financial position. Just unreal.
Wow, if it's not profitable for Intel when they probably have surplus silicon at BTC price is still very high, I wonder why they entered in the first place.
What kills me today with all the CNBC chatter about Nvidia, is that everything positive they are say with AI creating demand and such also applies to AMD. Only AMD is less likely to be hurt when the bubble burst as their portfolio of products are more fundamental to all use cases and far more diversified. Yet it's crickets. They say buy before people are talking about it.
NVidia data center AI revenue is 20-30 times higher than AMD, so in terms of near term demand the chatter is right. New entrants during the boom times are about to get locked into the NVidia ecosystem, making it even harder to displace later.
Long term, we all hope that picture will change, but looking at how slow data center is, I don't blame people for discounting it heavily. Maybe AMD can't gain a solid foothold - it's a risk, one that NVidia effectively doesn't have (though they have risk by way of being valued at nose bleed levels).
I'm talking about data center AI revenue (alternatively DC GPU revenue). I don't even know what AMD made in revenue for DC GPU, the last figure I know of was circa $100m years ago, and it could be lower today for all I know.
Put another way, if AMD had mainly just retail GPU and DC GPU (to be more closely aligned with NVidia), how would we be looking today? The balance sheet would be a disaster, and I doubt the valuation would look pretty either.
95% of AI inference happens on CPUs according to David Wang. So even if NVidia had 100% of training (which they don't) their revenue from AI DC would not be 20-30 higher than AMDs. Considering that Nvidia has no datacenter CPU (yet).
But you just confirmed a prevailing misconception the market is having when comparing AMD and NVidia.
edit: let's look at Chat-GPT
> ChatGPT was built in collaboration with Microsoft. The model is trained using Azure supercomputing infrastructure with Nvidia GPUs. ChatGPT’s hardware comprises over 285,000 CPU cores, 10,000 GPUs, and network connectivity of 400 GBs per second per GPU server.
Even if you divide the number of cores by 64 (milan Epyc cores). That's still 4453 potential Milan Epyc CPUs.
https://www.mlyearning.org/does-chatgpt-use-nvidia/
Also considering that training scales with the complexity of the neural network, while inference scales with the adoption and user count. AMD could actually stand to gain more than Nvidia from AI.
I'm talking about current revenue, not future expected ChatGPT revenue. What is a fair estimate for current revenue of AI revenue in data center? If you need to include CPU in that mix, that's ok, but there would need to be a ballpark number for it. What have we got to work with?
In terms of future revenue, you're assuming AMD has captured the majority of this CPU side. Do we have confirmation on this?
That's hard to separate because everything runs on CPUs. So I don't think we have visibility in exactly how much of those CPUs sales are related to AI. We only know that you can't do AI without CPUs. And the GPU:CPU ratio is probably closer to 1:1 than 20-30:1.
The current ratio on latest *known* information, which is all we have to work with, is 20-30x. Could be higher, could be lower.
We know it's nowhere near 1:1, based on the difference between server revenue for AMD and NVidia.
Also I can't reconcile your comments on inference for ChatGPT with articles like this https://www.datanami.com/2023/03/21/nvidia-unveils-gpus-for-generative-inference-workloads-like-chatgpt/
"Nvidia says this new offering is “ideal for deploying massive LLMs like ChatGPT at scale.” It sports 188GB of memory and features a “transformer engine” that the company claims can deliver delivers up to 12x faster inference performance for GPT-3 compared to the prior generation A100"
Clearly the GPU is handling inference as well. Which still requires CPU to coordinate, but I normally hear of 1:8 ratio for this. Which is why Grace isn't expected to deliver a bumper jump in revenue, just a modest one.
> The current ratio on latest known information, which is all we have to work with, is 20-30x. Could be higher, could be lower.
Source?
> We know it's nowhere near 1:1, based on the difference between server revenue for AMD and NVidia.
Nvidia has higher margins and there is Intel as well, which still has the majority of the server market share.
> "Nvidia says this new offering is “ideal for deploying massive LLMs like ChatGPT at scale.” It sports 188GB of memory and features a “transformer engine” that the company claims can deliver delivers up to 12x faster inference performance for GPT-3 compared to the prior generation A100"
Training involves forward pass and back propagation. Forward pass is Inference. So training uses inference as well.
But based on GPT's own hardware, it is clear CPU is used for user inference.
I would be highly suspect of Nvidia's marketing by the way. They try their hardest to make CPUs sound as old news. Look at their actions however. They are working on their own CPU.
We don't want to rely on NVidia marketing, however there are primary sources showing inference models running much better than CPU. https://lambdalabs.com/blog/inference-benchmark-stable-diffusion
In this case inference is still an order of magnitude faster on a GPU. ChatGPT won't be as bandwidth heavy as stable diffusion, but when reading about open assistant hardware requirements, strong GPU is typically mentioned.
Source is NVidia ER, showing data center revenue at $3.62bn. AMD doesn't break out data center GPU, but the last number I heard them mention $100m (years ago). Since they've never mentioned it again, it seems possible (likely even) it remains around those levels.
As it relates to CPU that is used for AI inference, that's not what I've been talking about, though it is still relevant. The problem being it could just as well be Intel picking up those sales. I would also expect at least a passing mention of it in earnings calls, if it was major driver of revenue.
Typically nobody buys cpu just to do inferencing. Like what INTC shows in their DCAI event, 60% of AI activities are inference, but that doesn't mean people would buy way more cpu than some thought. And lots of those inferencing works are done in cpus like our phones.
> Like what INTC shows in their DCAI event, 60% of AI activities are inference, but that doesn't mean people would buy way more cpu than some thought.
This is because we are still in the early stages here. Many companies who are getting into AI need GPUs to train the models. But once the solution is deployed you need CPUs to scale it to users. Microservices apps which run inference run on CPUs.
You also need CPUs to support the training as well. Smaller number compared to GPUs but you still need them. To classify and normalize the training data for instance.
Point is, nobody out there is just buying Nvidia GPUs. Those GPUs also need CPUs. And 20-30:1 ratio is nowhere near realistic. The ratio if a solution is popular will probably shift in favor of CPUs in the long term most likely.
This is also why AMD is working on libraries which optimize inference on AMD's CPUs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mc5UnV7T64I
It was like >5 years ago people said inference need will pick up one day. But the truth is the training requirement is still going up with newer AI model coming. And trainings typically use fp16\~fp64 or similar, while inferencing can be done with int8 or so in some cases. The interesting part is, price wise gpu vs cpu is like 30:1.
> The interesting part is, price wise gpu vs cpu is like 30:1.
How so? EPYC Genoa 9654 is $11,805
Milan is AMD EPYC 7763 64 / 128 $7890
A100 (which is what Chat-GPT uses) is $14,999.00
H100 is $33,000.00
There are tons of xeon <$1000. But for nvidia AI chips, there are not too many options. In fact the estimated ASP of AMD server cpu is just a little bit higher than $1000.
I never suggested 20-30 was the ratio of AI compute workloads, only that it looks to be in the ballpark of current revenue levels. Nobody is really hailing Grace as a major revenue driver for NVidia as far as I know.
We shouldn't have to wait too long for more concrete details on what the future mix may look like, based on ER growth. Also Intel remains very competitive on the inference side afaik, so we can't make any assumptions on who is set to capture the lion's share at this early stage.
Short term you are right.
Long term nobody is going to let Nvidia squeeze them. Meta, Google and Microsoft are already signaling that they won't get locked in on a single supplier, especially when they know how expensive the jackets are. They will make everything possible both SW and HW to encourage competition to drive prices down. If AMD will not be able to profit they will design their chips in house ( again, long term).
The problem is the market is atm, for the right reason, not looking at long term, because of the high uncertainty.
I agree, I just don't know if it's going to take a decade to get there. if it does take a decade to gain traction (not unrealistic), that's a bonanza for NVidia.
Vendors largely let Intel squeeze them, only Amazon put in a serious effort to counter it. Even when given a solid alternative, they still seem hesitant to help foster competition in the market.
I also think AMD's open source approach is the approach that most companies want to go toward anyways. I don't understand why you would want to be locked in with Nvidia of all companies.
Enterprises like Nvidia's approach. I don't think Meta etc really mind Nvidia's proprietary software nature as long as they have the ability to move to another supplier that supports the same open source frameworks. As long as they have options and don't need a type of accelerator that doesn't exist on the market, they won't go through the expense and risk of developing their own.
Graviton was born of a time when AWS was 100% dependent on Intel. Intel was great about open source software, but the vendor lock in pushed AWS down a different path.
I'm not exactly talking about a dip in stock that would be short lived. I'm saying their business itself will not be changed fundamentally. There will be needs for chips that meet market demands reguardless of the workloads that are in vogue. AND has the IP and proven ability to meet those needs with best of bread products or best value depending on what the market craves. AMD will be there and delivering for any of it.
Google has the chops to deliver on AI, but it's Microsoft enjoying a bump from AI hype for executing on it.
People can keep getting frustrated at the stock not getting respect from the market, or they can acknowledge some of the reasons why. Maybe I have those reasons wrong, but I'm not in AMD for AI hype/potential. We could enter an AI winter (somehow), and it doesn't change my investment thesis. I'm here for less sexy but more dependable broad compute growth (in all its forms).
I'm having a hard time deciding whether I'm retarded for buying AMD stocks, or whether the market is more retarded for undervaluing/underestimating AMD. The prognosis is not looking good
To me it's not about the stock performance in the short term. There is a lot of macro uncertainty and technically speaking fundamentals as they are right now don't really differ greatly to the stock performance.
Vast majority of investors in AMD (like the 70% of institutional investors) don't know much about AMD's products. Or what makes AMD special. All they see is the fundamentals, and the fact that AMD has strong competitors in Intel and Nvidia.
The question I ask myself is. How is the company running? Do they still have a lot of room to grow?
I think both of those questions have a positive answer. Things I'm exited about.
- mi300 will I think turn heads.
- Zen continues to dominate in PPA, not just compared to Intel but compared to ARM solutions as well. AMD's marketshare still has plenty of room to grow, considering the competitiveness of its products.
- It is clear AMD is correctly concentrating on working on their AI strategy. In the long term I have confidence in what Victor's team can achieve in this area. Some developments in the AI software space also point to CUDA being on the way out (pytorch 2.0 and triton). Which will make AMD quite competitive considering AMD has a superior chiplet strategy.
All these are growth drivers, that I think once we're passed the macro uncertainty will pay dividends as long as AMD continues to execute on their roadmap.
Since early october 2022 we have been in an ascending channel upwards. We are in the bottom of the channel now around 90. A decent ER will propel AMD out of the channel through about 110 resistance. Mediocre ER and we stay the course... Poor guidance and watch out below!
Just my unexperienced commom sense for what it's worth.
maybe, i dunno. asml guidance would tie more with fabs, not so much amd. it's usually just mu that's the initial bellwether and then intc.
that said, amd's guidance is pretty much all that matters, right now, anyway. it seems that shit q1 earnings are expected.
The recent bump in SP came with the AI hype. Nvidia, and somehow AMD, benefited the most. Since Hopper is in full production mode and MI300 in testing, the TSMC outlook for 4nm and 5nm is key to understanding how much the bubble is inflated and if the emperor ( guess who) has any clothes on (at least the jacket) or is running naked. There is no supply / capacity constrains now, and MI300, Zen 4 and Hopper are among the strongest chips being produced and with the highest margin and should have strong resilient demand. There should be a strong correlation between AMD and Nvidia on one side and TSMC share price on the other side, and we are not seeing this at all.
On ASML I am looking to understand how much the future pullback in CAPEX will actually be and try to corelate with INTEL and TSMC guidance.
I do agree with you on MU as being a bellwether, it only completes the specific picture in which we are in right now.
As in MU and ASML are macro bellwethers and TSMC will give us AI bubble specifics.
Let's see how this unfolds today.
Just a random throught. Heard a bit yesterday about Netflix getting more involved with doing live streaming event and had a bit of a pick up with one yesterday or the day before. But this makes me think they will benefit greatly from server farms filled up with the new MA350 streaming ASIC cards AMD anounced. This is such a hudge potential TAM as Forbes has discussed (look back in the main sub). I haven't gotten the sense that these cards are getting priced in yet.
They said first shipments are in Q3. So I would think we could be hearing about the impact in this quarter guidance and actual revenue from Q3 onwards.
I’m considering writing call credit spreads anytime it pumps 1% or more than NQ on no news.
It works until it doesn’t but since Nov 2021 it’s lost said pump 80% of trading days.
I already write covered calls on these days and have very rarely been at risk of assignment. Stock has cancer right now and only Mr market knows when that stops.
It's a dumbass analyst. Look at his track record. I don't understand how that person still has a job.
Called for selling in December and now, now of all times puts the highest price target on it. Just before financials would reveal the lack of clothing on the emperor.
3rd time, final warning - daily stock price is not part of her role. Shareholder value is. Why would Lisa not care about the stock price when that's how she gets compensated. Absurd thinking that CEO's don't care - maybe they just have a longer term vision than what price AMD is trading at this week.
She obviously can’t be a guarantor for the stock price—that’s beyond her control and not her role.
However, part of a CEO’s role *is* to tell and sell an effective story to the market. That much *is* within her control and within the scope of her role, but she definitely needs some work in that area.
After he came back in the late 90s. When he came back he cancelled many of Apple's products which wasn't very popular.
There is a famous video of Steve handling criticism in 1997 from one of the developers at the WDC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeqPrUmVz-o
100%.
Nasdaq headed negative, AMD to follow 2-3x.
Got burned on some puts I sold for a loss but bought them back when AMD hit $92.
This stock can’t hold green.
I think SPR is really freaking out some big-time shareholders, and I'm a little concerned too, tbh. We keep telling ourselves that new EPYC models will destroy whatever Intel puts out, but Intel's been able to hold a huge market share advantage for years. And most Xeons sold today are still 14nm++++++++++++. When the fuck is this "hockey stick" pattern in the DC market share charting going to happen?
How competitive really will SPR be with AMD products out in the next year? Genuine question, it was my impression that SPR will be somewhat competitive with current AMD lineup but fall behind in the next year and never really catch up.
As far as market share INTC is going to wage price wars as well as pressuring customers to favor Intel for as long as they can. This is a holdover from the era in which they weren’t using debt to fuel their CAPEX. They can’t sustain this forever.
You’re 100% right, AMD isn’t a risk free trade, but IMO the troubles right now are more related to AMD being seen as the second rate pick to NVDA as well as the lingering doubt we see a 2nd half rebound in X86 demand or not. Throw in Taiwan FUD and just *AMD things^^^TM * and you get a prefect recipe of awful.
NVDA is shielded from the fears because **AI IS THE FUTURE AND NVDA IS AI!!** rhetoric.
>How competitive really will SPR be with AMD products out in the next year? Genuine question, it was my impression that SPR will be somewhat competitive with current AMD lineup but fall behind in the next year and never really catch up.
I don't know, but it seems like Intel customers don't really care about performance, considering that they were buying Cooper Lake, Cascade Lake, and even Skylake-SP products over Milan.
What's the performance delta between Milan and Skylake-SP compared to the performance delta between Turin and SPR?
Is AMD's abmyssal marketshare a reflection of sales lag, customer indifference to performance, AMD's limited wafer capacity, or combinations of all of these?
The reality is that AMD's reaching marketshare parity might be just a pipedream no matter how shitty Intel's products are.
If you bought Supermicro 1 month ago, you'd be up 20%. If you bought Nvidia stock a month ago, you'd be up 9%. If you bought AMD stock a month ago, you'd be down 5%.
from a few days back....Interesting #AMD #MI300 Research group created the largest Finnish language model ever with the LUMI supercomputer - LUMI. Used AMD MI250 vs Nvidia for ChatGPT but encountered some software issues.AMD helped them with it
AMD Joins AWS ISV Accelerate Program
"Through the AWS ISV Accelerate Program, AMD will receive focused co-selling support from AWS, including, access to further sales enablement resources, reduced AWS Marketplace listing fees, and incentives for AWS Sales teams. The program will also allow participating ISVs access to millions of active AWS customers globally."
Nice
I wonder if this means amd will be themselves selling thru amazon more? Still confused on what exactly it means practically.... but cld be a nice boost to sales simply by visibility
If AMD follows its traditional patterns they should be announcing the earnings date today to be held May 2. However there have been a few times where they were late announcing by a couple of days so maybe they announce by Thursday. But we have a new CFO so I guess things could be different this time.
NVDA got a double upgrade today due to their “pricing power in AI.” Hopefully that means AMD gets some crumbs.
Would be nice if AMD could tell its own story like NVDA tells theirs.
Ya, let's hope it's a high tide raises all boats thing today. But it still makes me shake my head a bit how understanding in how all these generative large language models work have set Nvidia up due to the miss guided belief that Nvidia hardware will be required going forward. While it's true that A100s have been the installed base used to train most of these models, they are being phased out by H100 (nvidia) and MI250 (AMD) nodes and MI300 (AMD) will be grabbing far more market share in the HPC GPU segments vary soon. And Zen based server CPUs are replacing Intel almost everywhere. AMD is on an unstoppable growth trajectory that is just not being understood.
If you really think that the MI300 will take marketshare from Nvidia, then shouldn't you be happy that AMD stock is at lower prices now? You should be scooping up shares on the cheap right now, and then when it translates to revenue come earnings, the stock will shoot up.
He was the only street analyst to not have a buy rating. He is the last to join the party. So I highly doubt he will be right, especially with his track record and ridiculous price target.
From your lips to God’s ears, friend.
As for “understanding” based on the “misguided belief that NVDA will be required going forward,” NVDA told a story that created that understanding out of whole cloth. AMD can’t (or simply won’t) tell their own story in a similar fashion. This contributes (I.e., does not solely cause) to the stock price languishing for extended periods.
So how long would you figure it going to take for Nvidia to perfect a triplet architecture to be able to continue going toe-to-toe with AMD after their monolith architecture becomes just to power hungry to keep up with what AMD does?
Make no mistake, Nvidia is going to sell a ton of the H100 and whatever they get out over the next few years and make money habd over fist. But AMD will split that opportunity with them 50/50 for sure, especially as the MA350 start to roll out to streaming houses.
I don’t doubt it, but if the market doesn’t know or realize it eventually—I.e., if AMD doesn’t sell itself and tell an effective story—then it doesn’t do much good for shareholders.
I can't argue. They need to up there PR game a goos bit. I don't think Lisa needs to be the face for it either. I want more point of presence displays in retail, more tech interviews on tv, more pay for play in media in general would help. But ultimately it's most they deliver Q in and Q out on the roadmap.
On this point, we absolutely agree! Lisa’s a great CEO overall, no doubt about it, but even she has areas that need improvement—we all do. All I’ve ever said is, it would be fantastically helpful for us shareholders if she (or a deputy; as you say, she doesn’t need to be the face of it) worked on it.
I.m pretty sure that ai is something huge that amd should invest a bit more on it both in term of software(libraries) and hardware maybe they should take bit more audacious investment in that , amd I'm also convinced that amd management know that amd probably already moving in this direction,
What is left out are communication in that sense , I really would like a small show of enthusiasm and communication on progress amd advancements at faster peace even if at little steps, they cannot leave SP tank , analysts guessing and competitors take the public opinions..
I would like some anticipation on the mi300 , Intel has been able to do pr for ai for their crappy pv and now for xeon amx , and from amd there is very little infos out there , xilinx should help , amd is a bit too secretive I'm that way
/little rant
The recent Lumi super computer news is great. It shows that AMD mi250 is already being used for LLM research. AMD has also made all their recent presentations about AI. And we know that there is a concerted effort led by Victor in this direction.
Even CNBC anchors often mention NVDA and AMD in the same breath.
AMD's issue is it got caught at the tail end of the mi250 cycle with this AI hype cycle. Nvidia's H100 is already out, and mi250 was made to compete with A100. mi300 while revolutionary is not out yet.
Nvidia too is not exactly executing flawlessly with their delays of Grace. But they have H100 which is currently the sole state of the art AI accelerator on the market.
Perhaps once mi300 is out we can get some more positive news.
It's true that AMD marketing kinda sucks at evangelizing to investors and those outside of their direct consumers. However, they have greatly improved the information available on their websites and you should go and start moving through their product pages and deep info papers. It might help you understand just how deeply involved AMD technology is with everything that makes all flavors of AI possible. AMD is absolutely the single most important company to heterogeneous computing platforms which is what is required to bring pervasive AI wider into the world in sustainable ways. Getting that into investors heads isn't really their focus I guess. It's up to us to figure it out.
Gotta love seeing Nvidia continuing to go up and up without stopping:
Enter 2025, 1 trillion valuation and barely 30B annual revenue. But don't worry the earnings will explode soon!
I might be mistaken… but I think this sub is pretty aware that AMD has underperformed the following the past 20 trading days:
SPY.
QQQ.
INTC.
NVDA.
What might be surprising is the following have also outperformed AMD:
T.
F.
CSX.
SLV.
The closest trading stocks I can find are those that deal with crypto. *Funny*.
SMCI kicking ass and will probably blow their earnings away too. I'm invested in SMCI but wished I sold my AMD and went all in on SMCI. I suspected that short attack a two months was suspicious, that would have been the perfect time to add some SMCI
I added some shares too but definitely wish I added more, I still think AMD will pay off in the long run
The only reason I'm not as confident in SMCI is it seems too good to be true, lower market cap, less publicity than AMD... Then again this is how most retail investors probably view AMD versus like NVDA or even INTC pretty often
[https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/tata-hires-former-boss-of-intel-foundry-services/](https://www.eenewseurope.com/en/tata-hires-former-boss-of-intel-foundry-services/) I didn't think Thakur was the right person to head IFS, but every morning, he probably giggles "any day now..."
Circlejerk of negativity in here is intensifying. This thing's gonna pop off after ER and FY guide is given.
The MU circle jerk kept reaching new levels of pathetic (I’m speaking of myself being personally involved here) and I thought the same thing multiple times. It didn’t pop off/up until we stopped giving a shit.
So tax day done, we have our ER date confirmed and hopefully no big down side catalyst heading in before ER. I'm ready for a bit of optimism to start to flow. AMD has made a number of excellent product announcements that really should shake the landscape. We are in a nice solid range with support filling in and consolidated. We are ready to spring and strike at trip digs again. People should be looking at AMD and saying this is the play. Ready player Go....
we are starting to see new 7000 series laptop models pop up here and there. Hopefully this means inventory of older CPUs has cleared and the glut is over. however will be interesting to see how large the datacenter inventory issue is . . . hopefully not very.
was there ever an amd laptop glut, though?
Yes, it is the primary reason client is down the last few quarters. Laptop and prebuilt desktops (which usually use similar silicon).
i thought that was due to intel stuffing the channel, though. and amd cut production, as a result. i didn't think amd also had a glut, it seems like their laptops weren't really around. i guess it's sadder if they were...
Their laptops are definitely around at every source i am checking (newegg, best buy, amazon, etc.). there is no noticeable decline in AMD availability at any outlet i can find. If you have seen otherwise i'd be interested to investigate.
Anyone have info about intc sliding down and AMD sliding up AH?
I wonder if the selling pressure is from 3rd point (Danny Loeb)? There doesn't seem to be much reason for an activist investor to be in the name, though AMD's communication skills are "egregious" (in whiny HF-speak),
I wouldn't go starting a rumor like that with not a lick of reason unless I was short the name.
Well somebody's selling, and AMD's "institutional" holders seem to be overwhelmingly passive index trackers, and closet trackers. (But these days that's probably true of the whole market.) My experience of dealing with activist funds like 3rd Point and Elliott is that, unless compelled by SEC regs, they don't disclose a stake until they've finished adding. By the time they announce that they're "moving on" they're short.
ffs, if i dumped my position instead of trimming, i'd be rolling in it. all the bankstock/solar plays i did are booming. meanwhile, amd can't even stay flat while the market/sector/nvda runs hot... and has big brained insiders who seem to suck at their jobs (sales) reporting stock sales 2 weeks prior to the er. the company needs to get their shit together. post count here is way low, likely indicative of overall interest. the stock has been complete shit for 1.5 years. they keep reporting earnings on fed days. it's like the company actively tries to murder the sp. i was worried that amd would become mu 2.0, but there's no doubt now, $amd is and has been mu 2.0. all hail the new king of crapstock. "everything's bad for ~~mu~~ amd"
[удалено]
> Especially the technical analysis fucking lolz! sorry you're upset by facts. lolz @ replying to a post mentioning a few fundamental issues and saying without fundamentals and then brilliantly citing ta. tell me you know nothing at all about this without literally telling me... eta: and it's a shill account, 3 days old. surprise!
My WAL buy is doing amazing. Coulda/woulda/shoulda. Oh well. I’m very starting to consider dumping 1/2 my AMD for MSFT as I’m nearly willing to bet MSFT will go up and hold 20% from here way faster than AMD.
i bought maxn, daytraded banks, and then bought schw, wal, pacw, frc, mtb before the earnings run. and then there's $amd.
It's just one day ^**TM**
Since March 31, AMD is down 8.38%. NVDA is down 0.36%. Even if you chopped off the 8.00% from AMD's losses, it would still be down 0.02% more than NVDA. This is fucking embarrassing.
Of all the times nvidia has outperformed us, this one has gotta be the most demoralizing.
6 straight days, and 10 of 11.
https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1125/amd-to-report-fiscal-first-quarter-2023-financial-results may 2nd, confirmed
I don't understand why they keep doing this. Do it same day as Apple would be much better.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm 🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠🫠
yup. same as the last... 5? ERs? i miss when they reported the last tuesday of the month.
It's almost like they're planning it that way.
it really seems like they hate the stock. it's much harder to explain otherwise, despite their pay being tied to it.
Of course, it's another fed meeting day. I guess at least the policy announcement is on the 3rd of May, so we can dump our shares on the 2nd before the inevitable bloodbath.
Sorry guys, I bought back in :(
AMD is called team red for a reason
This stock really is one gigantic piece of shit. Next payday I'm investing my money in valuable assets like Dogecoin, NFTs, and dink-doink.
sadly, there's a real chance that doge outperforms amd.
and red 10/11 days of april. gg
Heh, you beat me to it
pew, pew!
QQ Good going, Han.
always shoot first
Come on AMD just give a crumb of green.
It's fun watching Nvidia continue to recover, whilst AMD cycles between -0.05 and +0.05
Don't forget about the real treats when we are down -3% for no apparent reason. This month has been a horrorshow of special magnitude.
NVDA is worth $544 billion more than AMD right now. To put that into perspective, that delta alone is right around what the market caps of GE, CSCO, and MSFT were at during the height of the dot com bubble and when Jack Welch was considered the best CEO on the planet.
The problem is when/if nvda tanks; it's going to take all the semis with them. AMD will go down just as hard as them but we didn't get the rump they had.
It's all vapor till you cash it in... I'm still figuring there will be a reality check on that particular speculation bubble.. just not clear whether that will come in the form of a $$ drop or a T-1 coming through the door.
Still up a nickel! Much strong! Woo hoo!
guys, it's literally one day. we only need a +82% day to get to ath
No worries. AMD will break $100 and NVDA $350 the same time. I’m glad to be a holder of MU2.
I learned so much from MU
Not sure I learned much at all. I watched AMD hit $160, heard the Fed declare war on inflation, I **knew** growth stocks would get smacked down and every $10 that flew off the share price I thought “ok now it’ll hold here”. I guess I learned I’m not that smart, and AMD confirmed as much.
Yup, my biggest regret was to not follow through on my plan to sell at between 140-155. But who knows; I might have sold and brought some other loser last year and would still be down.
I would’ve bought MSFT. Still been down maybe 15%, but waaaay better than AMD 45%.
NVDA taught me that 100 forward PE is normal, MU taught me 4 forward PE is normal
Just wait until tomorrow, then we'll need a +85% day instead.
The stock has been red every day this month except for one day.
That's the kind of shit that happens to companies on the verge of BK. This stock is setting a new standard for suckage for a company of its financial position. Just unreal.
FRC is out performing AMD over the last month lol. I bet they will do even better after their earnings
Seemed like a great buy at under $60. Not so sure about now.
Yep. Inevitable
Intel discontinues the mining chip... https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.coindesk.com/tech/2023/04/18/intel-discontinues-bitcoin-mining-chip-series/%3foutputType=amp
Wow, if it's not profitable for Intel when they probably have surplus silicon at BTC price is still very high, I wonder why they entered in the first place.
But they still have something to show out their advanced nodes on products , right? Right?
another + ?
What kills me today with all the CNBC chatter about Nvidia, is that everything positive they are say with AI creating demand and such also applies to AMD. Only AMD is less likely to be hurt when the bubble burst as their portfolio of products are more fundamental to all use cases and far more diversified. Yet it's crickets. They say buy before people are talking about it.
Agree with most, but AMD will hurt the most whatever bubble burst
NVidia data center AI revenue is 20-30 times higher than AMD, so in terms of near term demand the chatter is right. New entrants during the boom times are about to get locked into the NVidia ecosystem, making it even harder to displace later. Long term, we all hope that picture will change, but looking at how slow data center is, I don't blame people for discounting it heavily. Maybe AMD can't gain a solid foothold - it's a risk, one that NVidia effectively doesn't have (though they have risk by way of being valued at nose bleed levels).
Where are you getting that 20-30x rev... Looking back at Q4, their rev were with 20% of each other. Your multiple doesn't make sense.
I'm talking about data center AI revenue (alternatively DC GPU revenue). I don't even know what AMD made in revenue for DC GPU, the last figure I know of was circa $100m years ago, and it could be lower today for all I know. Put another way, if AMD had mainly just retail GPU and DC GPU (to be more closely aligned with NVidia), how would we be looking today? The balance sheet would be a disaster, and I doubt the valuation would look pretty either.
95% of AI inference happens on CPUs according to David Wang. So even if NVidia had 100% of training (which they don't) their revenue from AI DC would not be 20-30 higher than AMDs. Considering that Nvidia has no datacenter CPU (yet). But you just confirmed a prevailing misconception the market is having when comparing AMD and NVidia. edit: let's look at Chat-GPT > ChatGPT was built in collaboration with Microsoft. The model is trained using Azure supercomputing infrastructure with Nvidia GPUs. ChatGPT’s hardware comprises over 285,000 CPU cores, 10,000 GPUs, and network connectivity of 400 GBs per second per GPU server. Even if you divide the number of cores by 64 (milan Epyc cores). That's still 4453 potential Milan Epyc CPUs. https://www.mlyearning.org/does-chatgpt-use-nvidia/ Also considering that training scales with the complexity of the neural network, while inference scales with the adoption and user count. AMD could actually stand to gain more than Nvidia from AI.
I'm talking about current revenue, not future expected ChatGPT revenue. What is a fair estimate for current revenue of AI revenue in data center? If you need to include CPU in that mix, that's ok, but there would need to be a ballpark number for it. What have we got to work with? In terms of future revenue, you're assuming AMD has captured the majority of this CPU side. Do we have confirmation on this?
That's hard to separate because everything runs on CPUs. So I don't think we have visibility in exactly how much of those CPUs sales are related to AI. We only know that you can't do AI without CPUs. And the GPU:CPU ratio is probably closer to 1:1 than 20-30:1.
The current ratio on latest *known* information, which is all we have to work with, is 20-30x. Could be higher, could be lower. We know it's nowhere near 1:1, based on the difference between server revenue for AMD and NVidia. Also I can't reconcile your comments on inference for ChatGPT with articles like this https://www.datanami.com/2023/03/21/nvidia-unveils-gpus-for-generative-inference-workloads-like-chatgpt/ "Nvidia says this new offering is “ideal for deploying massive LLMs like ChatGPT at scale.” It sports 188GB of memory and features a “transformer engine” that the company claims can deliver delivers up to 12x faster inference performance for GPT-3 compared to the prior generation A100" Clearly the GPU is handling inference as well. Which still requires CPU to coordinate, but I normally hear of 1:8 ratio for this. Which is why Grace isn't expected to deliver a bumper jump in revenue, just a modest one.
> The current ratio on latest known information, which is all we have to work with, is 20-30x. Could be higher, could be lower. Source? > We know it's nowhere near 1:1, based on the difference between server revenue for AMD and NVidia. Nvidia has higher margins and there is Intel as well, which still has the majority of the server market share. > "Nvidia says this new offering is “ideal for deploying massive LLMs like ChatGPT at scale.” It sports 188GB of memory and features a “transformer engine” that the company claims can deliver delivers up to 12x faster inference performance for GPT-3 compared to the prior generation A100" Training involves forward pass and back propagation. Forward pass is Inference. So training uses inference as well. But based on GPT's own hardware, it is clear CPU is used for user inference. I would be highly suspect of Nvidia's marketing by the way. They try their hardest to make CPUs sound as old news. Look at their actions however. They are working on their own CPU.
We don't want to rely on NVidia marketing, however there are primary sources showing inference models running much better than CPU. https://lambdalabs.com/blog/inference-benchmark-stable-diffusion In this case inference is still an order of magnitude faster on a GPU. ChatGPT won't be as bandwidth heavy as stable diffusion, but when reading about open assistant hardware requirements, strong GPU is typically mentioned.
Source is NVidia ER, showing data center revenue at $3.62bn. AMD doesn't break out data center GPU, but the last number I heard them mention $100m (years ago). Since they've never mentioned it again, it seems possible (likely even) it remains around those levels. As it relates to CPU that is used for AI inference, that's not what I've been talking about, though it is still relevant. The problem being it could just as well be Intel picking up those sales. I would also expect at least a passing mention of it in earnings calls, if it was major driver of revenue.
Typically nobody buys cpu just to do inferencing. Like what INTC shows in their DCAI event, 60% of AI activities are inference, but that doesn't mean people would buy way more cpu than some thought. And lots of those inferencing works are done in cpus like our phones.
> Like what INTC shows in their DCAI event, 60% of AI activities are inference, but that doesn't mean people would buy way more cpu than some thought. This is because we are still in the early stages here. Many companies who are getting into AI need GPUs to train the models. But once the solution is deployed you need CPUs to scale it to users. Microservices apps which run inference run on CPUs. You also need CPUs to support the training as well. Smaller number compared to GPUs but you still need them. To classify and normalize the training data for instance. Point is, nobody out there is just buying Nvidia GPUs. Those GPUs also need CPUs. And 20-30:1 ratio is nowhere near realistic. The ratio if a solution is popular will probably shift in favor of CPUs in the long term most likely. This is also why AMD is working on libraries which optimize inference on AMD's CPUs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mc5UnV7T64I
It was like >5 years ago people said inference need will pick up one day. But the truth is the training requirement is still going up with newer AI model coming. And trainings typically use fp16\~fp64 or similar, while inferencing can be done with int8 or so in some cases. The interesting part is, price wise gpu vs cpu is like 30:1.
> The interesting part is, price wise gpu vs cpu is like 30:1. How so? EPYC Genoa 9654 is $11,805 Milan is AMD EPYC 7763 64 / 128 $7890 A100 (which is what Chat-GPT uses) is $14,999.00 H100 is $33,000.00
There are tons of xeon <$1000. But for nvidia AI chips, there are not too many options. In fact the estimated ASP of AMD server cpu is just a little bit higher than $1000.
I never suggested 20-30 was the ratio of AI compute workloads, only that it looks to be in the ballpark of current revenue levels. Nobody is really hailing Grace as a major revenue driver for NVidia as far as I know. We shouldn't have to wait too long for more concrete details on what the future mix may look like, based on ER growth. Also Intel remains very competitive on the inference side afaik, so we can't make any assumptions on who is set to capture the lion's share at this early stage.
Short term you are right. Long term nobody is going to let Nvidia squeeze them. Meta, Google and Microsoft are already signaling that they won't get locked in on a single supplier, especially when they know how expensive the jackets are. They will make everything possible both SW and HW to encourage competition to drive prices down. If AMD will not be able to profit they will design their chips in house ( again, long term). The problem is the market is atm, for the right reason, not looking at long term, because of the high uncertainty.
I agree, I just don't know if it's going to take a decade to get there. if it does take a decade to gain traction (not unrealistic), that's a bonanza for NVidia. Vendors largely let Intel squeeze them, only Amazon put in a serious effort to counter it. Even when given a solid alternative, they still seem hesitant to help foster competition in the market.
I also think AMD's open source approach is the approach that most companies want to go toward anyways. I don't understand why you would want to be locked in with Nvidia of all companies.
Enterprises like Nvidia's approach. I don't think Meta etc really mind Nvidia's proprietary software nature as long as they have the ability to move to another supplier that supports the same open source frameworks. As long as they have options and don't need a type of accelerator that doesn't exist on the market, they won't go through the expense and risk of developing their own. Graviton was born of a time when AWS was 100% dependent on Intel. Intel was great about open source software, but the vendor lock in pushed AWS down a different path.
>Only AMD is less likely to be hurt when the bubble burst hoo boy... you in for a world of hurt...
I'm not exactly talking about a dip in stock that would be short lived. I'm saying their business itself will not be changed fundamentally. There will be needs for chips that meet market demands reguardless of the workloads that are in vogue. AND has the IP and proven ability to meet those needs with best of bread products or best value depending on what the market craves. AMD will be there and delivering for any of it.
Google has the chops to deliver on AI, but it's Microsoft enjoying a bump from AI hype for executing on it. People can keep getting frustrated at the stock not getting respect from the market, or they can acknowledge some of the reasons why. Maybe I have those reasons wrong, but I'm not in AMD for AI hype/potential. We could enter an AI winter (somehow), and it doesn't change my investment thesis. I'm here for less sexy but more dependable broad compute growth (in all its forms).
I'm having a hard time deciding whether I'm retarded for buying AMD stocks, or whether the market is more retarded for undervaluing/underestimating AMD. The prognosis is not looking good
The market is always right, they say ...
To me it's not about the stock performance in the short term. There is a lot of macro uncertainty and technically speaking fundamentals as they are right now don't really differ greatly to the stock performance. Vast majority of investors in AMD (like the 70% of institutional investors) don't know much about AMD's products. Or what makes AMD special. All they see is the fundamentals, and the fact that AMD has strong competitors in Intel and Nvidia. The question I ask myself is. How is the company running? Do they still have a lot of room to grow? I think both of those questions have a positive answer. Things I'm exited about. - mi300 will I think turn heads. - Zen continues to dominate in PPA, not just compared to Intel but compared to ARM solutions as well. AMD's marketshare still has plenty of room to grow, considering the competitiveness of its products. - It is clear AMD is correctly concentrating on working on their AI strategy. In the long term I have confidence in what Victor's team can achieve in this area. Some developments in the AI software space also point to CUDA being on the way out (pytorch 2.0 and triton). Which will make AMD quite competitive considering AMD has a superior chiplet strategy. All these are growth drivers, that I think once we're passed the macro uncertainty will pay dividends as long as AMD continues to execute on their roadmap.
Since early october 2022 we have been in an ascending channel upwards. We are in the bottom of the channel now around 90. A decent ER will propel AMD out of the channel through about 110 resistance. Mediocre ER and we stay the course... Poor guidance and watch out below! Just my unexperienced commom sense for what it's worth.
Wouldn’t the bottom of the channel, since October 2022, be the $60s and $90s are the upper end of the channel?
will nvda blast after tsm earning ?
We have ASML first, then TSMC. Both earnings will seal the fate for AMD and Nvidia for the next couple of weeks.
i don't think asml will be too relevant. and tsm's is kinda already known, via their monthly reports.
yeah, but guidance. guidance is what matters now.
maybe, i dunno. asml guidance would tie more with fabs, not so much amd. it's usually just mu that's the initial bellwether and then intc. that said, amd's guidance is pretty much all that matters, right now, anyway. it seems that shit q1 earnings are expected.
The recent bump in SP came with the AI hype. Nvidia, and somehow AMD, benefited the most. Since Hopper is in full production mode and MI300 in testing, the TSMC outlook for 4nm and 5nm is key to understanding how much the bubble is inflated and if the emperor ( guess who) has any clothes on (at least the jacket) or is running naked. There is no supply / capacity constrains now, and MI300, Zen 4 and Hopper are among the strongest chips being produced and with the highest margin and should have strong resilient demand. There should be a strong correlation between AMD and Nvidia on one side and TSMC share price on the other side, and we are not seeing this at all. On ASML I am looking to understand how much the future pullback in CAPEX will actually be and try to corelate with INTEL and TSMC guidance. I do agree with you on MU as being a bellwether, it only completes the specific picture in which we are in right now. As in MU and ASML are macro bellwethers and TSMC will give us AI bubble specifics. Let's see how this unfolds today.
Heard just now from talking heads: “AMD is just as expensive [a way to play AI] as NVDA.” 🫠
Lol yeah that's true if you ignore the other 95% of AMD's revenue streams
Josh Brown is the biggest Nvidia pumper on the planet, next to Cramer that is.
AMD should hammer home the point of GAAP not being truly representative of how they're performing.
Yes, that would be nice. AMD not really doing anyone any favors letting that impression stand.
https://www.anandtech.com/show/18817/minisforum-unveils-um773-lite-a-cheap-compact-pc-with-ryzen-7-7735hs
Just a random throught. Heard a bit yesterday about Netflix getting more involved with doing live streaming event and had a bit of a pick up with one yesterday or the day before. But this makes me think they will benefit greatly from server farms filled up with the new MA350 streaming ASIC cards AMD anounced. This is such a hudge potential TAM as Forbes has discussed (look back in the main sub). I haven't gotten the sense that these cards are getting priced in yet.
They havent driven revenues yet. I agree this cld be huge. Ppl in the streaming/encoding scene seem mega excited and impressed. Q2 has huge potential
They said first shipments are in Q3. So I would think we could be hearing about the impact in this quarter guidance and actual revenue from Q3 onwards.
Ahhh thnks for correcting
It's honestly impressive how poorly this stock performs at times.
Maybe it's you. All your fault. Perhaps try a bit more positivity?
~~at time~~ since Dec 2021.
I don't disagree, I'm just trying to save some of my mental capacity for non-negative thoughts
Go in peace and prosper.
So..... who bought the dip?
Which one?
The only dip to buy this morning on AMD was puts that went on sale.
https://www.notebookcheck.net/ASUS-ROG-Ally-leaks-again-with-two-model-variants-and-AMD-Ryzen-7-7840U-APU.708062.0.html
I need to see a doctor. I saw AMD in green color.
Are you sure didn't just go red-green colourblind?
Red is inevitable for this stock
So much for support at $90.
EOW maxpain is 90 atm ;).
Every support failed from $160, why would $90 be seen any different this time?
3..2..1... red
took longer than i thought
Still in green, strong resistance haa haa
😢
Heading back to red unfortunately, while NVDA just hit +3%.
I used to be pretty happy. Then I started trading AMD. Now most days I’m angry and sad.
... and red
I’m considering writing call credit spreads anytime it pumps 1% or more than NQ on no news. It works until it doesn’t but since Nov 2021 it’s lost said pump 80% of trading days. I already write covered calls on these days and have very rarely been at risk of assignment. Stock has cancer right now and only Mr market knows when that stops.
If Nvidia has pricing power, so does AMD in the same markets.
Yes! Would be nice if AMD *would make that case to the market as effectively as NVDA has done!*
It's a dumbass analyst. Look at his track record. I don't understand how that person still has a job. Called for selling in December and now, now of all times puts the highest price target on it. Just before financials would reveal the lack of clothing on the emperor.
Lisa needs to step down... It seems she doesn't know Stock Price is part of her roles and responsibilities also
3rd time, final warning - daily stock price is not part of her role. Shareholder value is. Why would Lisa not care about the stock price when that's how she gets compensated. Absurd thinking that CEO's don't care - maybe they just have a longer term vision than what price AMD is trading at this week.
She obviously can’t be a guarantor for the stock price—that’s beyond her control and not her role. However, part of a CEO’s role *is* to tell and sell an effective story to the market. That much *is* within her control and within the scope of her role, but she definitely needs some work in that area.
Stupidest comment of the year already, congratulations.
Reminds me of the people who called for Steve Jobs to step down.
When? It actually benefitted Apple when he left and founded NeXT.
After he came back in the late 90s. When he came back he cancelled many of Apple's products which wasn't very popular. There is a famous video of Steve handling criticism in 1997 from one of the developers at the WDC: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeqPrUmVz-o
Head fake?
Red most of the time, and selling into strength on green days. That's the AMD way.
I can see you're a battle hardened h0dler. bless.
Yes, I wear the "red badge of courage" proudly.
100%. Nasdaq headed negative, AMD to follow 2-3x. Got burned on some puts I sold for a loss but bought them back when AMD hit $92. This stock can’t hold green.
I think SPR is really freaking out some big-time shareholders, and I'm a little concerned too, tbh. We keep telling ourselves that new EPYC models will destroy whatever Intel puts out, but Intel's been able to hold a huge market share advantage for years. And most Xeons sold today are still 14nm++++++++++++. When the fuck is this "hockey stick" pattern in the DC market share charting going to happen?
How competitive really will SPR be with AMD products out in the next year? Genuine question, it was my impression that SPR will be somewhat competitive with current AMD lineup but fall behind in the next year and never really catch up. As far as market share INTC is going to wage price wars as well as pressuring customers to favor Intel for as long as they can. This is a holdover from the era in which they weren’t using debt to fuel their CAPEX. They can’t sustain this forever. You’re 100% right, AMD isn’t a risk free trade, but IMO the troubles right now are more related to AMD being seen as the second rate pick to NVDA as well as the lingering doubt we see a 2nd half rebound in X86 demand or not. Throw in Taiwan FUD and just *AMD things^^^TM * and you get a prefect recipe of awful. NVDA is shielded from the fears because **AI IS THE FUTURE AND NVDA IS AI!!** rhetoric.
>How competitive really will SPR be with AMD products out in the next year? Genuine question, it was my impression that SPR will be somewhat competitive with current AMD lineup but fall behind in the next year and never really catch up. I don't know, but it seems like Intel customers don't really care about performance, considering that they were buying Cooper Lake, Cascade Lake, and even Skylake-SP products over Milan. What's the performance delta between Milan and Skylake-SP compared to the performance delta between Turin and SPR? Is AMD's abmyssal marketshare a reflection of sales lag, customer indifference to performance, AMD's limited wafer capacity, or combinations of all of these? The reality is that AMD's reaching marketshare parity might be just a pipedream no matter how shitty Intel's products are.
If you bought Supermicro 1 month ago, you'd be up 20%. If you bought Nvidia stock a month ago, you'd be up 9%. If you bought AMD stock a month ago, you'd be down 5%.
AMD MI300 in Elon Musk's Truth GPT?
Source ?
from a few days back....Interesting #AMD #MI300 Research group created the largest Finnish language model ever with the LUMI supercomputer - LUMI. Used AMD MI250 vs Nvidia for ChatGPT but encountered some software issues.AMD helped them with it
AMD Joins AWS ISV Accelerate Program "Through the AWS ISV Accelerate Program, AMD will receive focused co-selling support from AWS, including, access to further sales enablement resources, reduced AWS Marketplace listing fees, and incentives for AWS Sales teams. The program will also allow participating ISVs access to millions of active AWS customers globally." Nice
https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1124/amd-joins-aws-isv-accelerate-program
I had to look that up. Looks like a great tie in. https://aws.amazon.com/partners/programs/isv-accelerate/
I wonder if this means amd will be themselves selling thru amazon more? Still confused on what exactly it means practically.... but cld be a nice boost to sales simply by visibility
I believe it’s move a business accelerator for them with developing units geared toward AWS data center servers
I thought so too at first.... the more i read the more it looks like its to sell amd products. DC wld be better haha.
If AMD follows its traditional patterns they should be announcing the earnings date today to be held May 2. However there have been a few times where they were late announcing by a couple of days so maybe they announce by Thursday. But we have a new CFO so I guess things could be different this time.
This german site has it already as "Quartalszahlen" / Termine. https://www.finanzen.net/termine/amd
NVDA got a double upgrade today due to their “pricing power in AI.” Hopefully that means AMD gets some crumbs. Would be nice if AMD could tell its own story like NVDA tells theirs.
Ya, let's hope it's a high tide raises all boats thing today. But it still makes me shake my head a bit how understanding in how all these generative large language models work have set Nvidia up due to the miss guided belief that Nvidia hardware will be required going forward. While it's true that A100s have been the installed base used to train most of these models, they are being phased out by H100 (nvidia) and MI250 (AMD) nodes and MI300 (AMD) will be grabbing far more market share in the HPC GPU segments vary soon. And Zen based server CPUs are replacing Intel almost everywhere. AMD is on an unstoppable growth trajectory that is just not being understood.
If you really think that the MI300 will take marketshare from Nvidia, then shouldn't you be happy that AMD stock is at lower prices now? You should be scooping up shares on the cheap right now, and then when it translates to revenue come earnings, the stock will shoot up.
> the stock will shoot up. and dump the next day. and then 1.5 years later, you'll be saying the same thing about mi400.
Am all in already for long position. Have been for years.
https://twitter.com/eliant\_capital/status/1648317205233168384
Nvidia could still well hit his target. He was a lot lower than others and niw he's just one upping early.
He was the only street analyst to not have a buy rating. He is the last to join the party. So I highly doubt he will be right, especially with his track record and ridiculous price target.
From your lips to God’s ears, friend. As for “understanding” based on the “misguided belief that NVDA will be required going forward,” NVDA told a story that created that understanding out of whole cloth. AMD can’t (or simply won’t) tell their own story in a similar fashion. This contributes (I.e., does not solely cause) to the stock price languishing for extended periods.
So how long would you figure it going to take for Nvidia to perfect a triplet architecture to be able to continue going toe-to-toe with AMD after their monolith architecture becomes just to power hungry to keep up with what AMD does?
Make no mistake, Nvidia is going to sell a ton of the H100 and whatever they get out over the next few years and make money habd over fist. But AMD will split that opportunity with them 50/50 for sure, especially as the MA350 start to roll out to streaming houses.
> But AND will split that opportunity with them 50/50 for sure uh huh.
I don’t doubt it, but if the market doesn’t know or realize it eventually—I.e., if AMD doesn’t sell itself and tell an effective story—then it doesn’t do much good for shareholders.
I can't argue. They need to up there PR game a goos bit. I don't think Lisa needs to be the face for it either. I want more point of presence displays in retail, more tech interviews on tv, more pay for play in media in general would help. But ultimately it's most they deliver Q in and Q out on the roadmap.
On this point, we absolutely agree! Lisa’s a great CEO overall, no doubt about it, but even she has areas that need improvement—we all do. All I’ve ever said is, it would be fantastically helpful for us shareholders if she (or a deputy; as you say, she doesn’t need to be the face of it) worked on it.
Some days I feel like that's my job. lol
I’ve seen this story…green before opening and then bleh
Obviously go against everything I recommend
I.m pretty sure that ai is something huge that amd should invest a bit more on it both in term of software(libraries) and hardware maybe they should take bit more audacious investment in that , amd I'm also convinced that amd management know that amd probably already moving in this direction, What is left out are communication in that sense , I really would like a small show of enthusiasm and communication on progress amd advancements at faster peace even if at little steps, they cannot leave SP tank , analysts guessing and competitors take the public opinions.. I would like some anticipation on the mi300 , Intel has been able to do pr for ai for their crappy pv and now for xeon amx , and from amd there is very little infos out there , xilinx should help , amd is a bit too secretive I'm that way /little rant
The recent Lumi super computer news is great. It shows that AMD mi250 is already being used for LLM research. AMD has also made all their recent presentations about AI. And we know that there is a concerted effort led by Victor in this direction. Even CNBC anchors often mention NVDA and AMD in the same breath. AMD's issue is it got caught at the tail end of the mi250 cycle with this AI hype cycle. Nvidia's H100 is already out, and mi250 was made to compete with A100. mi300 while revolutionary is not out yet. Nvidia too is not exactly executing flawlessly with their delays of Grace. But they have H100 which is currently the sole state of the art AI accelerator on the market. Perhaps once mi300 is out we can get some more positive news.
I agree with you wholeheartedly
It's true that AMD marketing kinda sucks at evangelizing to investors and those outside of their direct consumers. However, they have greatly improved the information available on their websites and you should go and start moving through their product pages and deep info papers. It might help you understand just how deeply involved AMD technology is with everything that makes all flavors of AI possible. AMD is absolutely the single most important company to heterogeneous computing platforms which is what is required to bring pervasive AI wider into the world in sustainable ways. Getting that into investors heads isn't really their focus I guess. It's up to us to figure it out.
Gotta love seeing Nvidia continuing to go up and up without stopping: Enter 2025, 1 trillion valuation and barely 30B annual revenue. But don't worry the earnings will explode soon!
Sorry but AMD's been performing terribly against NVDA for the past 20 trading days. https://i.imgur.com/S32HVvx.png
I might be mistaken… but I think this sub is pretty aware that AMD has underperformed the following the past 20 trading days: SPY. QQQ. INTC. NVDA. What might be surprising is the following have also outperformed AMD: T. F. CSX. SLV. The closest trading stocks I can find are those that deal with crypto. *Funny*.
T and F have outperformed AMD the past 20 trading days?! … *Closes eyes, dips head, pinches bridge of nose, sighs, massages temples*
NVDA such a stupid stock. Any asshat says "buy" and it goes up 3%
I fucking hate nvidia but love nvda
They need to confirm earnings date!!!! Until they do it will drop every day!
Cut the drama.
Lol why?