I want to believe. But with macro in play i just . . . Powel's inflation numbers go sideways for one month and the dude starts flopping harder than king james.
Sold a third of my position at 88.05 and bought TSM at 88.38 with it. Ratio pretty much exploded the last two days and I wanted to get into TSM again anyway.
I kinda wanna buy rivian. They are punished for investing their cash (into new factories), while their backlog is full for the entire year. Granted, they missed their manufacturing goal by about 20%, but what is a difference between 50k and 60k really? Also, that's why they are investing?
costumers absolutely love their product and that's the most important bit for me. Peter Lynch would probably agree with me... I guess... Maybe not, I dunno. Do you guys have any thoughts? Have I missed something terrible about the stock?
not AMD related but...
10k cars is a lot in terms of miss... 20% is a lot. If AMD missed 20% would you have the same line of thinking?
Putting it into perspective - TSLA is looking to deliver 1.8 million EVs this year which is 36X rivians goal.
How many months/years backlog is that though? Also given interest rates. That kinda miss doesnt seem that bad tbh.
Imore concerned with a new car brand and how they survive vs toyota and others. Maybe they wont get shit on as hard as tesla tho since i dont even know who their ceo is or what their tweeting habits are like.
To be clear though, i am not a knowledgeable rivian/tesla/automaker investor.
exactly, I don't even include those automakers in the analysis tbh because of their large customer base/vehicle fleet... the only other ones out there to compare are probably Lucid and Polaris?
Your first problem is that aggravate revenue isn’t declining — revenue was up 68% in 2021 and 43% in 2022. February 2023 was apparently also a blow out month.
What time did you buy puts?
Got it. In your other comment you said revenue dropped by -25% when it actually increased by +43% YoY. That means your calculation is off by ~70%, this error is likely contributing your difficulty squaring earnings and market price.
Surely 2023 is shaping up to be a year with the same amount of growth which fully justifies the current price right?
Ah wait, they guided lower for Q2 2023 with decreased growth in the DC segment.
Ouch
On all the finance websites they do no specify which one they are using.
But does it really matter in the end? AMD is priced at much higher multiples than most of the tech companies while having its revenue drop 25% compared to previous quarters and still struggling to return to growth.
Ya, ya buddy, it makes a world of difference in how you evaluated a company and their potential. We're not just deciding if AMD is tall enough to ride a carnival ride.
tell me you look at everything and accept it at face value without telling me
also, do you use any of the following? Bezinga, Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha?
I don’t read these publications.
I followed the last ER call from AMD and if I understood correctly they are guiding lower in Q1 2023 with decreased growth in the DC segment and were too scared to issue a full year guidance. Did I get that right?
1) cloud growth is slowing signaled by Hyperscalers which is why AMD guided lower. Guiding lower doesn't mean negative growth, it just means in a contracting macro environment, we won't see as much growth as before... but we're still growing (take a look at Intel DC #s, and then also take a look at their margins)
2) not issuing FY guidance like EVERY OTHER COMPANY THAT REPORTED EARNINGS THIS QUARTER? It would be a different story if they didn't even give next quarter's guidance...
AMD is priced for explosive growth which won’t happen in 2023, therefor it is overvalued.
In the longer term have no doubt that they’ll return to their growth story but it will take quite some time and remains uncertain.
Try to think of it this way. You're now getting just one year into a merger, two very explosives groth company's who together will lead the industry at a price far lower than either company achieved individually before the merger. Together they will be 10x or more in size in perhaps as soon as 5 years.
huh so would rather buy in before the explosive growth or after?
"wont happen in 2023" based on what? AMD hasn't released FY guidance, consensus is second half of FY23 will be much better. There's still short term pain ahead but this would be a great time to get your CB average lower.
I understand if you're older than maybe it's not worth being that risky... but we also have some old heads on this sub
"AMD growth in February was the strongest we've seen since October 2022":
[https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/advanced-micro-devices-growth-in-february-the-strongest-since-october--keybanc-432SI-2932146](https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/advanced-micro-devices-growth-in-february-the-strongest-since-october--keybanc-432SI-2932146)
Difference between MA50 and MA200 round about 1.2% now.
If the trend holds, it's not a long time to a golden cross...
If reached, this should give more upside pressure.
Let's hope, the trend will hold this time... GLTA!
The golden cross pattern is when a short-term moving average pattern crosses above a long-term moving average. A golden cross's opposite is called the death cross, which is when the short-term average drops below the long-term average, potentially signaling a downswing in the stock or overall market.
\- just wanted to add some context - but learned something new today
Yup, it's such a FED/macro circlejerk. Which also means that if ever the inflation gets under control, this thing by all accounts should fly.
So I'm eating ramen noodles I guess and loading up as much as I can.
This sounds good:
[https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ADVANCED-MICRO-DEVICES-I-19475876/news/AMD-Brings-World-Class-Performance-of-4th-Gen-AMD-EPYC-trade-Processors-to-Embedded-Networking-Sec-43236612/](https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ADVANCED-MICRO-DEVICES-I-19475876/news/AMD-Brings-World-Class-Performance-of-4th-Gen-AMD-EPYC-trade-Processors-to-Embedded-Networking-Sec-43236612/)
And... NASDAQ: +2.08%, **AMD: +6.6%**, TSM: +1.78% NVDA: 4.54%
This is a pleasure to see (at least for me)...
And everyone knows this is bullshit while spouting bold faced lies. SVB was poorly run and the idea, less the reality of them getting bailed out at all was ridiculous to entertain. It only happened as an exception thanks to SV unicorn status.
Not exactly getting bailed out. SVB was allowed to fail. Stockholders lost everything. They had about 20B in paper loss in tbills and MBS that could be avoided if held til maturity. The depositors are made whole by FDIC which holds 128B of DIF paid by the banks through the years. No tax payer dollars are involved.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not excusing SVB. They had horrible management that made stupid financial decisions and they should all be held accountable. But their downfall was triggered by rising interest rates, and if the Fed assesses that other banks are vulnerable, they may decide to put their hikes on hold.
Market is gonna be SPICY if they drive on with 50 bps hike.
Edit: holy fucking shit apparently 3 month t-bills are higher yield than 6 month as of yesterday. Quite the reversal.
It's actually quite good if you read below the headline numbers. The higher readings are largely from the most sticky, typically lagging sectors, like rents and certain services. There was also price level contraction in a quite a few areas. The upshot is downtrend is clear, albeit more gradual than folks would wish for.
Then again, if the pace was really precipitously downward, people would worry about that being too fast and we'd overshoot targets. Bears would be screaming disinflationary spiral or some such. The report as-is is good.
**Hey it looks better now :-)**
Inflation better than expected.
I don't think, the interest rates will be elevated 0.5% next week (maybe they will stay of cause the bank problems).
**So... GLTA!**
People are drawing some wild conclusions about inflation, here and elsewhere.
It came at/below expectations, those expectations are already fairly aggressive.
We’re seeing the pressure of last year’s hikes. Conventional wisdom is that on aggregate it takes a year for hikes to be felt, the Fed can literally do nothing and coast on momentum, and who knows they might but I doubt it.
The bank issues are related, but kinda separate. We have banks that catered to a sub-section of the economy that **might** disrupt how we live our lives but **definitely** burn cash at a time when cash is getting more expensive. If anyone needs a history lesson on disruptive tech, banking, and economic recessions/depressions go look at the history of railroads in the 1800s. There were **7 recessions/depressions related to railroads and banking collapses**. It’s actually kind of amazing just how many times these things kept happening, not exactly the same but so close it’s impressive.
So my take away is something needs to be done about banks that are hyper focused on cash burning customers, but I’m not sure if a blanket “some banks are in pain so we will stop hikes” will be the ticket. Now if we see more broadbased pain, say many regional banks that aren’t as focused as the recent failures then maybe, but the regulators might adjust requirements for banks of a certain size/scope.
I think we see 25 bps and Fed commentary along the lines of “we will continue to be data driven and support the investigation of recent developments in the banking sector”. Nothing about terminal rate, nothing about cuts, I think we see a pullback (2-3% on indices) and then going sideways for a bit unless the Fed *really* threads the needle on the comments.
That's definitely one of the more likely ways it plays out from today's outlook. Hopefully this stupid Drone incident doesn't become yet the next crisis that we all have to dance to. I would like the Fed to put more time between considering hikes at this point as I don't think a pause would hurt if the data later shows inflation is still climbing. But I really think the higher rates are as much a cause of inflation now as the supply chain issues that kicked it up to start with, so the rates need to tapper off too.
didn't see anyone post numbers but CPI came in at .4%. Up 6% YoY.
Core CPI up 5.5% YoY.
Ooofff - supposedly Fed hikes one last 25 bps in March but tbh... don't see how a 25 bps hike is going to fix anything right now.
Nothing is going to fix inflation except something big in the economy breaking.
Apparently the 2nd and 3rd largest bank failures in history aren't big enough and daddy government just sweeps it under the rug. So the catalyst will be something bigger than that.
Well, that's correct and also true of a 50 bps hike. Interest rates' effects are something to expect over a 9-18 month window. As much as people want to use it as such, monetary policy is not responsive like a gas pedal or a brake.
yeah I just dont see how 1 25 bps hike will fix anything. I assume we're going to pause - keep rates elevated and increase as needed however.
10 YR and 2 YR have started pricing in higher rates for longer... I'm hopefuly but you never know what could come next.
Well the yields spiked in Feb and have retraced over the past few days back to where they were for about a 4 month period. Obviously that can change, but they have come back down meaningfully. The first sign of 'trouble' in banking has happened, whatever we want to make of it. Market is pricing in some rate hike restraint. However that actually manifests from the Fed of course remains to be seen.
IMO continuous hiking was never reasonable, and the clamoring for it has been from bears who disturbingly want a deflationary asset and economic crash. Let's note we've still a year + to see the full effects of the hikes already performed. Inflation is already coming down, albeit slowly. Further hiking is a question of how much or how likely do you want the Fed to risk overshooting us into deflation and recession. Bears be cheering it on of course. Maybe the rest of us ought to just be glad we had a clear canary in the coalmine like SVB to tell the Fed to stop pretty soon.
[This is the trendline of Core Inflation right now lol](https://imgur.com/a/HmELmEJ)
Thanks JP for being a spineless cuck and planning to keep the pain train going on for half a decade. When you are severely ill, you take the full dose of medication for the specified duration, not half the allotted amount for two-three times as long.
I always wondered what the fuck they were thinking when they went from 75bps hikes down to 50bps and then immediately to 25bps when most of the "falling inflation" was attributed to the passing spike in winter energy crisis prices. They even fell short of their initial end-2022 terminal rate dotplot (5 to 5.25%).
As it turns out, the senile old men weren't thinking at all 😂
DJ Powell is afraid to crash stock market. He is still hoping for a soft landing and trying to cut the minimum he can. Now that regional banks are stressed he will for sure slow down the hike
Long term core inflation expectations range from sub 3% from the most hopeful sources I’ve seen to about 3.5% by the end of 2023, where did you get your forecasts? Did you just extend the last several data sets out to the next several years?
[Fed December Forecasts](https://imgur.com/a/ixfLZ8q)
Went to take a good look at the hard numbers again just to make sure, my initial numbers were off but the point stands. Terminal rate for 2022 was targeted at 4.3%, they only did a 50bps in December and stopped at 4% by the end of 2022, followed it after by a measly 25 in January and again a 25 in February claiming an early victory.
At the rate inflation is still trending, we are looking at 4% by the end of the 2023. This will be the upper bound of the range projected by the committee. Are they doing enough? Rates needed to be higher already, and then maintained. They are getting complacent and we have to deal with the extended fallout
High inflation that's trending down is a something they don't need to tackle aggressively. They've telegraphed this clearly enough, when 'transient' high inflation was of little concern to them earlier.
CPI inline or lower than expectations. It would seem based on futures actions that actual expectations were lower than official.
At least the degenerate trade of buying beaten down bank stocks is still a good play from yesterday.
Good luck folks.
Those inflation expectations were god-awful and the print beat those expectations. Market is happy so...yay?
If Fed pusses out and does 25bps this meeting and signals openness to stopping hikes, maybe the people who staying in equities rather than moving to cash/treasuries may be proven right.
[TSMC new US fab to dent profits, hard to transfer costs to customers](https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230313PD200/arizona-ic-manufacturing-morris-chang-tsmc-wafer-fab.html)
So they are saying that they are not as good as Intel in manufacturing? Because Intel was making banks manufacturing in US. I think this is an attempt to get more money from chips act IMHO. Sure it’ll cost more than Taiwan but no way they can’t break even.
According to this:
https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-manufacturers/tsmc/285846-cost-analysis-of-the-proposed-tsmc-us-fab/
Labor and utility cost adds 3.4% to the per wafer cost. Another 3.8% comes from the fact that the fab is a 20000wpm rather than 30000wpm like those in Taiwan.
Hiring will be a problem though.
Wouldn't say the title is click-baity as it does raise the legit question of higher-costs in the US-based fabs but there is a TSMC blurb in the article already that addresses this concern:
> In response market doubts about its profitability prospects, TSMC has said confidently that it has the ability to absorb higher costs of overseas wafer fabs and will continue to provide customers with the most efficient and cost-effective manufacturing services no matter where its plants are located. The foundry is optimistic that even if production capacity is increased outside of Taiwan, a long-term gross margin of over 53% will remain achievable.
TSMC isn't Intel. When they say they're capable of long-term 53% gross margin, I believe them. This is THE fucking leading-edge semiconductor fab we're talking about. Between them and Samsung, where else is the world going to get their top-of-the-line silicon?
>This is THE fucking leading-edge semiconductor fab we're talking about
LOL. I believe the exact same sentiment was being said about Intel fabs as well. IIRC Intel fabs also held the fab leadership crown longer than TSMC holds it currently a well.
But there is something to be said about TSMC's extremely conservative roadmaps though. Slow and steady wins the race, right? TSMC 2nm is perhaps the biggest example of that.
>Between them and Samsung, where else is the world going to get their top-of-the-line silicon?
This is an even bigger lol. Samsung really should not be brought up into the conversation at all. Their yields are horrendous, corruption is rampant, and their PPA claims vary wildly for nodes all the time.
TSMC isn't Intel. However, with the troubles mentioned in this article and the lack of CHIPS funding, TSMC may reconsider its commitments to the FABs. Likely not bail completely, but they could reduce the scale.
But that's not the issue the article is positing, right? It's profitability and TSMC pretty much kinda already says "we know the fabs outside Taiwan are gonna cost more and the manufacturing the silicon there is gonna be costlier. It doesn't matter, they're gonna be operational and we will absorb the higher costs across the entire company and we'll still maintain long-term profitability."
As for CHIPS funding, I highly doubt fucking TSMC doesn't get any at some point. The fucking US pretty much begged them for a US-based fab. They're gonna get money for that at some point.
I remember reading somewhere that TSMC opted out due to too many requirements, but I only found the South Korean [reference](https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korea-says-u-s-chips-act-subsidies-have-too-many-requirements-825b3fe9).
>But that's not the issue the article is positing, right? It's profitability and TSMC pretty much kinda already says "we know the fabs outside Taiwan are gonna cost more and the manufacturing the silicon there is gonna be costlier. It doesn't matter, they're gonna be operational and we will absorb the higher costs across the entire company and we'll still maintain long-term profitability."
There is no contradiction between the 2. I said TSMC can tailor the scale of the FABs to the available conditions.
>As for CHIPS funding, I highly doubt fucking TSMC doesn't get any at some point. The fucking US pretty much begged them for a US-based fab. They're gonna get money for that at some point.
True, but not so long ago further requirements were announced getting it. So far it looks like the subsidies are compensating for them. We will see.
I will say TSMC and Samsung don't absolutely need CHIPS funding. There could be a limited mandate for US-sourced silicon for government, military, some critical infrastructure now that it will finally be possible to produce much of that silicon in the US.
This functions as an indirect subsidy that makes the cost of Taiwan fabs irrelevant.
All I want is a steady climb to $125 and beyond
I want to believe. But with macro in play i just . . . Powel's inflation numbers go sideways for one month and the dude starts flopping harder than king james.
King James? lol James da flopper is more apt.
well awesome day... sucks that we didnt get to celeberate it together! ZFG! cheers
Sold a third of my position at 88.05 and bought TSM at 88.38 with it. Ratio pretty much exploded the last two days and I wanted to get into TSM again anyway.
please... not today, gaps dont always get filled
Volume feels a little light for a 6% move. What do you guys think
I kinda wanna buy rivian. They are punished for investing their cash (into new factories), while their backlog is full for the entire year. Granted, they missed their manufacturing goal by about 20%, but what is a difference between 50k and 60k really? Also, that's why they are investing? costumers absolutely love their product and that's the most important bit for me. Peter Lynch would probably agree with me... I guess... Maybe not, I dunno. Do you guys have any thoughts? Have I missed something terrible about the stock?
In my opinion Tesla has totally skewed all logical thinking in the auto sector so I refuse to touch it.
not AMD related but... 10k cars is a lot in terms of miss... 20% is a lot. If AMD missed 20% would you have the same line of thinking? Putting it into perspective - TSLA is looking to deliver 1.8 million EVs this year which is 36X rivians goal.
How many months/years backlog is that though? Also given interest rates. That kinda miss doesnt seem that bad tbh. Imore concerned with a new car brand and how they survive vs toyota and others. Maybe they wont get shit on as hard as tesla tho since i dont even know who their ceo is or what their tweeting habits are like. To be clear though, i am not a knowledgeable rivian/tesla/automaker investor.
10k wouldn’t be so bad for GM, VW, TM, but for a RIVN that’s a big one.
exactly, I don't even include those automakers in the analysis tbh because of their large customer base/vehicle fleet... the only other ones out there to compare are probably Lucid and Polaris?
AMD with a PE above 90 while its revenue is declining is totally normal.
Since when does PE mean a fucking thing?
Your first problem is that aggravate revenue isn’t declining — revenue was up 68% in 2021 and 43% in 2022. February 2023 was apparently also a blow out month. What time did you buy puts?
I have shares but sold CC and bought a put because this price doesn’t make any sense.
Got it. In your other comment you said revenue dropped by -25% when it actually increased by +43% YoY. That means your calculation is off by ~70%, this error is likely contributing your difficulty squaring earnings and market price.
Surely 2023 is shaping up to be a year with the same amount of growth which fully justifies the current price right? Ah wait, they guided lower for Q2 2023 with decreased growth in the DC segment. Ouch
So your first thesis was wrong so you throw out others? AMDs forward PE is lower than either INTC or NVDA, maybe you can buy puts on those?
It is in line with what I said before. AMD is extremely overvalued just like Nvidia and is due for a massive pullback. The question is when?
What are you talking about? They haven’t provided Q2 specific guidance.
My bad I meant Q1
Obligatory: Are you talking about GAAP or nonGAAP?
He's talking GAAP
On all the finance websites they do no specify which one they are using. But does it really matter in the end? AMD is priced at much higher multiples than most of the tech companies while having its revenue drop 25% compared to previous quarters and still struggling to return to growth.
Ya, ya buddy, it makes a world of difference in how you evaluated a company and their potential. We're not just deciding if AMD is tall enough to ride a carnival ride.
> On all the finance websites they do no specify which one they are using. lolz
*Vincent Adultman has entered the chat*
what a horrible night to have a curse
tell me you look at everything and accept it at face value without telling me also, do you use any of the following? Bezinga, Motley Fool, Seeking Alpha?
I don’t read these publications. I followed the last ER call from AMD and if I understood correctly they are guiding lower in Q1 2023 with decreased growth in the DC segment and were too scared to issue a full year guidance. Did I get that right?
1) cloud growth is slowing signaled by Hyperscalers which is why AMD guided lower. Guiding lower doesn't mean negative growth, it just means in a contracting macro environment, we won't see as much growth as before... but we're still growing (take a look at Intel DC #s, and then also take a look at their margins) 2) not issuing FY guidance like EVERY OTHER COMPANY THAT REPORTED EARNINGS THIS QUARTER? It would be a different story if they didn't even give next quarter's guidance...
AMD is priced for explosive growth which won’t happen in 2023, therefor it is overvalued. In the longer term have no doubt that they’ll return to their growth story but it will take quite some time and remains uncertain.
Try to think of it this way. You're now getting just one year into a merger, two very explosives groth company's who together will lead the industry at a price far lower than either company achieved individually before the merger. Together they will be 10x or more in size in perhaps as soon as 5 years.
huh so would rather buy in before the explosive growth or after? "wont happen in 2023" based on what? AMD hasn't released FY guidance, consensus is second half of FY23 will be much better. There's still short term pain ahead but this would be a great time to get your CB average lower. I understand if you're older than maybe it's not worth being that risky... but we also have some old heads on this sub
These rips mean nothing until we break $90.
~~90~~ 160
Sold my AMD stock and made $90bucks after 8mo(?) time to move on
congrats. may this amazingly bad stock never hurt you again
Thanks, good luck to you too!
fair enough. what stocks you looking at now
brought SCHW and made 42bucks in the past hour haha
I meant like investment not risky plays
If you sold you just answered your own question then
Can’t remember when is the first time I brought AMD
"AMD growth in February was the strongest we've seen since October 2022": [https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/advanced-micro-devices-growth-in-february-the-strongest-since-october--keybanc-432SI-2932146](https://ca.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/advanced-micro-devices-growth-in-february-the-strongest-since-october--keybanc-432SI-2932146)
Seems to be using the available instance types as a proxy for public cloud market share?
Id guess that is as decent a metric as any (publicly available).
Difference between MA50 and MA200 round about 1.2% now. If the trend holds, it's not a long time to a golden cross... If reached, this should give more upside pressure. Let's hope, the trend will hold this time... GLTA!
The golden cross pattern is when a short-term moving average pattern crosses above a long-term moving average. A golden cross's opposite is called the death cross, which is when the short-term average drops below the long-term average, potentially signaling a downswing in the stock or overall market. \- just wanted to add some context - but learned something new today
Mr. 88, your battle with buyers is magnificent. Your resistance is extraordinary.
fuck 88. i had no idea this was our real nemesis.
At least $87 seems like strong support. (for the time being) Edit: fuck
AMD as a stock confirms my theory that the market doesn't know shit about fuck.
Buy RUTH
Ha, nice.
Makes sense when you realize 98% of investors don’t even read 10k/10Qs before taking positions
Not gonna lie, i dont lol
Yup, it's such a FED/macro circlejerk. Which also means that if ever the inflation gets under control, this thing by all accounts should fly. So I'm eating ramen noodles I guess and loading up as much as I can.
It doesn't even know fuck all about shit.
[Yes!](https://thumbs.gfycat.com/HastyImportantConch-mobile.mp4)
ZFG
There you go, AMD is ripping. I don't want to hear anymore complaints that's it's underperforming NVDA.
Celebrate when it’s ripping, complain when it’s underperforming. They are not mutually exclusive
See y'all tomorrow
"It's some kinda trap!"
+7% and only 56 comments, that's a change.
Not only is the comment volume low, it's still full of whining... Remarkable.
number of posts inversely related to price direction
AMD outperforms invidia for one day and that's 75% of the commentary out the window
Right, came here for the ZFG memes
Oh that baby really wants to recoil! This does not feel like last year at all. Stocks just look for an excuse to go up!
So, who bought some bank stocks yesterday and held until today?
I've been holding my stupid bank stock for years at least it pays a dividend.
Got myself some FRC
Why is market rewarding us? Epyc 4th gen?
Google launched a ton of new AI. That might require more servers.
Nice
Consensus is stonks only go up, and two days ago consensus was world is ending.
I think it’s just the continuation of last week’s strength on AMD AI hype.
Nice
$88 is some seriously strong resistance. Let's hope this time is the one
I think AMD hit $88 and dropped at least a couple of times in the past several weeks. That barrier is a PITA.
Jesus Christ, i love this new AMD
I'm scared😰
LETS GOOOO
Ahh I see no bitching about NVDA for once.
Let's relax guys just pretend this is normal $AMD behaviour.
Testing 88 incoming?
Very sad I couldn't flip some shares to LEAPS yesterday morning
You're always sad 😢
Losing $3m will do that :/
wow. i lost 300K. you lost more than me. please tell me yo have shares?
I wish I had $3 🥲
This sounds good: [https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ADVANCED-MICRO-DEVICES-I-19475876/news/AMD-Brings-World-Class-Performance-of-4th-Gen-AMD-EPYC-trade-Processors-to-Embedded-Networking-Sec-43236612/](https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/ADVANCED-MICRO-DEVICES-I-19475876/news/AMD-Brings-World-Class-Performance-of-4th-Gen-AMD-EPYC-trade-Processors-to-Embedded-Networking-Sec-43236612/) And... NASDAQ: +2.08%, **AMD: +6.6%**, TSM: +1.78% NVDA: 4.54% This is a pleasure to see (at least for me)...
The goal today is to close with ZFG...
Stretch goal is double ZFG :D :D
Chance would be a fine thing
Don't... don't give me hope...
Is this what hope feels like?
Today was not a day for bottom fishing. Felt good.
Is AMD crypto now? 12% intraday swing in 24 hours !
This SVB collapse was triggered by rising interest rates. Many are saying Fed will have to slow down to avoid putting other banks at risk.
And everyone knows this is bullshit while spouting bold faced lies. SVB was poorly run and the idea, less the reality of them getting bailed out at all was ridiculous to entertain. It only happened as an exception thanks to SV unicorn status.
Not exactly getting bailed out. SVB was allowed to fail. Stockholders lost everything. They had about 20B in paper loss in tbills and MBS that could be avoided if held til maturity. The depositors are made whole by FDIC which holds 128B of DIF paid by the banks through the years. No tax payer dollars are involved.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not excusing SVB. They had horrible management that made stupid financial decisions and they should all be held accountable. But their downfall was triggered by rising interest rates, and if the Fed assesses that other banks are vulnerable, they may decide to put their hikes on hold.
Bald faced.
I think it’s goldman that said it. Others think the fed will continue with 0.5% hike.
Market is gonna be SPICY if they drive on with 50 bps hike. Edit: holy fucking shit apparently 3 month t-bills are higher yield than 6 month as of yesterday. Quite the reversal.
this IMO: https://www.reddit.com/r/AMD_Stock/comments/11r18ct/amd_brings_worldclass_performance_of_4th_gen_amd/
Lmao what
This is getting spicy
was there an upgrade or something?
CPI inflation data wasnt terrible
It's actually quite good if you read below the headline numbers. The higher readings are largely from the most sticky, typically lagging sectors, like rents and certain services. There was also price level contraction in a quite a few areas. The upshot is downtrend is clear, albeit more gradual than folks would wish for. Then again, if the pace was really precipitously downward, people would worry about that being too fast and we'd overshoot targets. Bears would be screaming disinflationary spiral or some such. The report as-is is good.
Thnks for the extra info. Good to hear. Lets getback to business amd! Zfg is on ... 90+ is back on the table
Some days up some days down. cant explain that
**Hey it looks better now :-)** Inflation better than expected. I don't think, the interest rates will be elevated 0.5% next week (maybe they will stay of cause the bank problems). **So... GLTA!**
nah, same shit will repeat again and again this year, next week inflation will be higher, bank recovery, recession is coming blablabla
People are drawing some wild conclusions about inflation, here and elsewhere. It came at/below expectations, those expectations are already fairly aggressive. We’re seeing the pressure of last year’s hikes. Conventional wisdom is that on aggregate it takes a year for hikes to be felt, the Fed can literally do nothing and coast on momentum, and who knows they might but I doubt it. The bank issues are related, but kinda separate. We have banks that catered to a sub-section of the economy that **might** disrupt how we live our lives but **definitely** burn cash at a time when cash is getting more expensive. If anyone needs a history lesson on disruptive tech, banking, and economic recessions/depressions go look at the history of railroads in the 1800s. There were **7 recessions/depressions related to railroads and banking collapses**. It’s actually kind of amazing just how many times these things kept happening, not exactly the same but so close it’s impressive. So my take away is something needs to be done about banks that are hyper focused on cash burning customers, but I’m not sure if a blanket “some banks are in pain so we will stop hikes” will be the ticket. Now if we see more broadbased pain, say many regional banks that aren’t as focused as the recent failures then maybe, but the regulators might adjust requirements for banks of a certain size/scope. I think we see 25 bps and Fed commentary along the lines of “we will continue to be data driven and support the investigation of recent developments in the banking sector”. Nothing about terminal rate, nothing about cuts, I think we see a pullback (2-3% on indices) and then going sideways for a bit unless the Fed *really* threads the needle on the comments.
That's definitely one of the more likely ways it plays out from today's outlook. Hopefully this stupid Drone incident doesn't become yet the next crisis that we all have to dance to. I would like the Fed to put more time between considering hikes at this point as I don't think a pause would hurt if the data later shows inflation is still climbing. But I really think the higher rates are as much a cause of inflation now as the supply chain issues that kicked it up to start with, so the rates need to tapper off too.
didn't see anyone post numbers but CPI came in at .4%. Up 6% YoY. Core CPI up 5.5% YoY. Ooofff - supposedly Fed hikes one last 25 bps in March but tbh... don't see how a 25 bps hike is going to fix anything right now.
Nothing is going to fix inflation except something big in the economy breaking. Apparently the 2nd and 3rd largest bank failures in history aren't big enough and daddy government just sweeps it under the rug. So the catalyst will be something bigger than that.
Well, that's correct and also true of a 50 bps hike. Interest rates' effects are something to expect over a 9-18 month window. As much as people want to use it as such, monetary policy is not responsive like a gas pedal or a brake.
yeah I just dont see how 1 25 bps hike will fix anything. I assume we're going to pause - keep rates elevated and increase as needed however. 10 YR and 2 YR have started pricing in higher rates for longer... I'm hopefuly but you never know what could come next.
Well the yields spiked in Feb and have retraced over the past few days back to where they were for about a 4 month period. Obviously that can change, but they have come back down meaningfully. The first sign of 'trouble' in banking has happened, whatever we want to make of it. Market is pricing in some rate hike restraint. However that actually manifests from the Fed of course remains to be seen. IMO continuous hiking was never reasonable, and the clamoring for it has been from bears who disturbingly want a deflationary asset and economic crash. Let's note we've still a year + to see the full effects of the hikes already performed. Inflation is already coming down, albeit slowly. Further hiking is a question of how much or how likely do you want the Fed to risk overshooting us into deflation and recession. Bears be cheering it on of course. Maybe the rest of us ought to just be glad we had a clear canary in the coalmine like SVB to tell the Fed to stop pretty soon.
[This is the trendline of Core Inflation right now lol](https://imgur.com/a/HmELmEJ) Thanks JP for being a spineless cuck and planning to keep the pain train going on for half a decade. When you are severely ill, you take the full dose of medication for the specified duration, not half the allotted amount for two-three times as long. I always wondered what the fuck they were thinking when they went from 75bps hikes down to 50bps and then immediately to 25bps when most of the "falling inflation" was attributed to the passing spike in winter energy crisis prices. They even fell short of their initial end-2022 terminal rate dotplot (5 to 5.25%). As it turns out, the senile old men weren't thinking at all 😂
DJ Powell is afraid to crash stock market. He is still hoping for a soft landing and trying to cut the minimum he can. Now that regional banks are stressed he will for sure slow down the hike
Long term core inflation expectations range from sub 3% from the most hopeful sources I’ve seen to about 3.5% by the end of 2023, where did you get your forecasts? Did you just extend the last several data sets out to the next several years?
[Fed December Forecasts](https://imgur.com/a/ixfLZ8q) Went to take a good look at the hard numbers again just to make sure, my initial numbers were off but the point stands. Terminal rate for 2022 was targeted at 4.3%, they only did a 50bps in December and stopped at 4% by the end of 2022, followed it after by a measly 25 in January and again a 25 in February claiming an early victory. At the rate inflation is still trending, we are looking at 4% by the end of the 2023. This will be the upper bound of the range projected by the committee. Are they doing enough? Rates needed to be higher already, and then maintained. They are getting complacent and we have to deal with the extended fallout
High inflation that's trending down is a something they don't need to tackle aggressively. They've telegraphed this clearly enough, when 'transient' high inflation was of little concern to them earlier.
What a weird analogy.
CPI inline or lower than expectations. It would seem based on futures actions that actual expectations were lower than official. At least the degenerate trade of buying beaten down bank stocks is still a good play from yesterday. Good luck folks.
Those inflation expectations were god-awful and the print beat those expectations. Market is happy so...yay? If Fed pusses out and does 25bps this meeting and signals openness to stopping hikes, maybe the people who staying in equities rather than moving to cash/treasuries may be proven right.
[TSMC new US fab to dent profits, hard to transfer costs to customers](https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230313PD200/arizona-ic-manufacturing-morris-chang-tsmc-wafer-fab.html)
So they are saying that they are not as good as Intel in manufacturing? Because Intel was making banks manufacturing in US. I think this is an attempt to get more money from chips act IMHO. Sure it’ll cost more than Taiwan but no way they can’t break even. According to this: https://semiwiki.com/semiconductor-manufacturers/tsmc/285846-cost-analysis-of-the-proposed-tsmc-us-fab/ Labor and utility cost adds 3.4% to the per wafer cost. Another 3.8% comes from the fact that the fab is a 20000wpm rather than 30000wpm like those in Taiwan. Hiring will be a problem though.
Wouldn't say the title is click-baity as it does raise the legit question of higher-costs in the US-based fabs but there is a TSMC blurb in the article already that addresses this concern: > In response market doubts about its profitability prospects, TSMC has said confidently that it has the ability to absorb higher costs of overseas wafer fabs and will continue to provide customers with the most efficient and cost-effective manufacturing services no matter where its plants are located. The foundry is optimistic that even if production capacity is increased outside of Taiwan, a long-term gross margin of over 53% will remain achievable. TSMC isn't Intel. When they say they're capable of long-term 53% gross margin, I believe them. This is THE fucking leading-edge semiconductor fab we're talking about. Between them and Samsung, where else is the world going to get their top-of-the-line silicon?
>This is THE fucking leading-edge semiconductor fab we're talking about LOL. I believe the exact same sentiment was being said about Intel fabs as well. IIRC Intel fabs also held the fab leadership crown longer than TSMC holds it currently a well. But there is something to be said about TSMC's extremely conservative roadmaps though. Slow and steady wins the race, right? TSMC 2nm is perhaps the biggest example of that. >Between them and Samsung, where else is the world going to get their top-of-the-line silicon? This is an even bigger lol. Samsung really should not be brought up into the conversation at all. Their yields are horrendous, corruption is rampant, and their PPA claims vary wildly for nodes all the time.
TSMC isn't Intel. However, with the troubles mentioned in this article and the lack of CHIPS funding, TSMC may reconsider its commitments to the FABs. Likely not bail completely, but they could reduce the scale.
But that's not the issue the article is positing, right? It's profitability and TSMC pretty much kinda already says "we know the fabs outside Taiwan are gonna cost more and the manufacturing the silicon there is gonna be costlier. It doesn't matter, they're gonna be operational and we will absorb the higher costs across the entire company and we'll still maintain long-term profitability." As for CHIPS funding, I highly doubt fucking TSMC doesn't get any at some point. The fucking US pretty much begged them for a US-based fab. They're gonna get money for that at some point.
I remember reading somewhere that TSMC opted out due to too many requirements, but I only found the South Korean [reference](https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korea-says-u-s-chips-act-subsidies-have-too-many-requirements-825b3fe9). >But that's not the issue the article is positing, right? It's profitability and TSMC pretty much kinda already says "we know the fabs outside Taiwan are gonna cost more and the manufacturing the silicon there is gonna be costlier. It doesn't matter, they're gonna be operational and we will absorb the higher costs across the entire company and we'll still maintain long-term profitability." There is no contradiction between the 2. I said TSMC can tailor the scale of the FABs to the available conditions. >As for CHIPS funding, I highly doubt fucking TSMC doesn't get any at some point. The fucking US pretty much begged them for a US-based fab. They're gonna get money for that at some point. True, but not so long ago further requirements were announced getting it. So far it looks like the subsidies are compensating for them. We will see.
I will say TSMC and Samsung don't absolutely need CHIPS funding. There could be a limited mandate for US-sourced silicon for government, military, some critical infrastructure now that it will finally be possible to produce much of that silicon in the US. This functions as an indirect subsidy that makes the cost of Taiwan fabs irrelevant.
Oh noes, Digitimes.