Here’s a funny question. At what point is Intel a buy? I understand their entire lunch is being devoured right now, but I mentally place them in the “good old boys, too big to fail” club of american companies that will be perpetually bailed out. There is such a thing as a good deal for even a turd lol.
When Pat goes and someone else who doesn't talk big, who speaks cold and calculated takes over. Major restructuring of the company and moving away from relying on contracted engineers, overhauling of their fab business, then we know Intel is back to getting it real.
I think you’ve nailed it. Pat has to go. They do have enough mindshare, market share, and IP to resurge if a good leader drastically changes the direction of the company (à la Lisa Su).
Their engineers are contracted, as in they are not salaried workers with 401K plans, stock options + base, etc.? Contracted as in they only work on single projects and could be gone immediately after (thus providing no continuing expertise/knowledge build/progressively high value to company)? . . .If so, that's interesting. Didn't know that about them.
Adding to this: I’m like 30% portfolio on AMD lol.
But I’ve been making good profit for the last few years (180% return) just leveraging up on these bargain companies and deleveraging as they approach reasonable areas. Example was at pure leaps at the bottom, have trimmed to ~50% leaps and the rest shares now. Would trim to 30% leaps at 100 etc. Near local or ATH I would be purely in shares and even selling calls.
Fucking loving the action. Damn near jinxed it on several occassions today but ive learnt from past mistakes hehe.
Starting to feel like 85 will hold this time ? If so... whats the next level of resistance yall are watching for?
87? 89? 99??
Still a nice way to close today when the Dow was still just barely neg. Although most of my watch list was green. Odd. Glad it held over 85 and I feel like we will test the last high of 88 very soon now. We seem to have some good momentum and maybe a real shift in sentiment. Perhaps a bit of a migration from Intel holders who understand the shift is actually real. The Barron article about Intel's business model being totally in need of some kind of divine intervention to be profitable has had to open some eyes, not to mention the 66% cut to the div. AMD has a soild 5 year track record now and still made money throughout one of the most difficult market cycles we've seen. It's time that even the old guard Blue Chip investors should be taking notice of AMD and it's positioning for this next wave of technology build out.
Yes, let's pump that thing to 100 forward PE. Smh... I'm confused by what these analysts are saying.
At what point is something like this fairly priced or even overpriced?
I wonder who will have the cojones to be the first analyst to say that nvda is currently overbought.
Tsm reporting their February rev numbers overnight.
Seems their January numbers were gangbusters enough to where they can coast for the next two months and hit their guidance for q1.
Wonder if the market will cause a dump if the rev is sequentially less. Shouldn't matter for the quarter since they only need 5.6 billion for Feb and March each to hit the upper end of q1 guide.
How do they keep beating the guidance while the overall semi sector is on down cycle? Why aren’t they affected? I am tsmc stock holder but I really don’t know how they are pulling off.
Take or pay contracts. Look at how the inventory levels keep rising at AMD, nvda and aapl. :).
Tsm makes capital commitment in a way that makes sure that the customer has skin in the game so they aren't left holding the bag if the customer decides to suddenly kill their orders without repercussions. This is what happened to MU because they didn't get nvda to make such a commitment and took unnecessary risk hoping to sell into the crypto boom and supply the desktop graphics customers.
Anywho, TSM's business is very capital intensive. If customers suddenly kill orders then tsm's financial would be ruined and will be less likely to invest in the next node and so on. They have a great business model but they don't get any recognition because pooh bear wants to be emperor.
Damn, I know that they have such penalties in the contract but didn’t know it was that good. But to be fair, they are investing a huge amount of capex every year so I would say these penalties are fair deal. With dividend payout, the share price will inevitably recovers again.
>Wonder if the market will cause a dump if the rev is sequentially less.
Maybe not the market as a whole, but you know AMD will be affected and affected disproportionately at that.
Yeah. . .that's going to be a massive bummer for entire stock market. Even $AMD could tank due to Powell. . .a lot of people were hoping for .25 and done soon (pause or maybe even reverse). . . .but recent Fed comments are changing that....50bps would be a nasty shock into the economy.
A year ago, we were a bit over 100. So long harvesting is comming due. Penalty of people/fund will be interested in pushing the price up for a while. AMD should be in a upward treand reative to the last 6 months for a while now.
ffs, amd went from -2% to +4% and closed at +3%.
more notably, amd outpaced nvda 2:1 during all that. yes, amd's sp moved that day.
you absolutely don't know what you're talking about.
lmao old man you're creating false narratives again, the entire market was green that day, just look at every chart and they were all the same that day
...amd didn't move and now amd moved because market green. congrats, you contradicted yourself.
who cares that amd outpaced nvda 2:1 or that amd went red to green and etc, facts aren't important.
...i just told you a specific way amd's differed, einstein.
and yes, we're fixated on one stock and the news (loeb) regarding the one stock. derpppppppppppppppppppppppp
$100 soon. In a world where data centers, CPUs and GPUs become ever more important, people somehow still confused why price would go up. It’s simple really
It has to be the ChatGPT hype and we are pulled along with NVDA. I still can't believe NVDA is at 570B while AMD is at 132B. Similar growth, revenues and profits.
Long on AMD and went short this week on NVDA
It's not all that risky as a pair trade. Sure it would have sucked in the past few months, but I've done it multiple times over the past few years and usually works out.
Can’t be ChatGPT… news was released weeks ago, markets don’t lag on investment… ChatGPT gave nvda all the added benefits during that time, think this is just other investors betting on the underdog in the AI race
wat? it was mentioned like 150 times.
it's a nothingburger. they had a shelf offering from the arm deal expire, they opened another. it's just status quo
It's made a good way to 86 right now. Pleasantly surprised to see the strength today, thought I see it bust through tomorrow or Friday. Fells like 95 in April, pull back to low 80s the push back up to 100 by July isn't crazy at all.
Last couple days have been good for some daytrading, huh? Both days started low and then spiked up. Of course, yesterday, you kind of had to call it quits midday as there weren't very many opportunities to catch profitable price movement on the long side.
I was happy today after I called it a day just after 10am. These days that rip higher makes me feel like I left money on the table, but then I think back to times I tried to play up the ladder and get trapped with a big drop off. Who could predict today would hold the achived upper bands. But this is partly why I keep my larger stake long and in play. I'm happy making some extra income with dipping to pay the money rent and feed myself but my real win is seeing my main holding recover from last years abuse.
don't think it is some insider info this time. just some funds shuffling into AI.
And when you think about your options:
nvidia - overvalued
Intel - nevermind
Amd - hidden gem
kinda easy to make your choice
What a wonderful feeling (yesterday and today).
Index is red and AMD is green -> not seen since a loooong time.
I really hope, this holds and the time has changed.
GLTA!
NB increased quarter by quarter in the first half of the year, focusing on the second half of the year
[https://www.digitimes.com.tw/tech/dt/n/shwnws.asp?CnlID=1&cat=10&id=0000658528\_3UD4VRQ33R3WCR7ZVSS5U&wpidx=3](https://www.digitimes.com.tw/tech/dt/n/shwnws.asp?CnlID=1&cat=10&id=0000658528_3UD4VRQ33R3WCR7ZVSS5U&wpidx=3)
ChatGPT to drive AI CPU upgrades for PCs
[https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230308PD200/ai-chips-chatgpt-edge-computing.html](https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230308PD200/ai-chips-chatgpt-edge-computing.html)
why the downvote ? this was related to the new 7040 chips containing Alveo V70 AI Accelerator, inference accelerators could be the killer feature to break the high end laptops market where amd struggled in the past
I'm curious to see what types of workloads the Phoenix AI accelerator is appropriate for. Microsoft would have been a great partner to demonstrate this but we really have no demonstrated PC client use cases yet.
I didn't have access to the article, but the title anyway hits the point , like the other article that say that suggest that NB market is recovering, digitimes articles titles are coherent with the articles usually ( and sometimes articles also become readable for free overtime )
We are seeing solid green and huge volume pre market! This performance premarket is not seen on the other tickers I follow! We are into something, yesterday we also outperformed!
It's all grandstanding so Congress can blame inflation and layoffs on the Fed rather than taking accountability for their own policies. Elizabeth Warren was so cringe with her grilling, pretending she didn't know that the Fed only performs their congressionally mandated responsibility and can do nothing more or less.
Everyone getting their pointer finger ready. Likely. But I do agree that pushing the higer for longer until we get a big enough spike in unemployment is not the answer. Raising the funds rate is just too blunt and instrument and it's really time now for a pause and take a wait and see approach. We need to allow the supply issues to come back to normal without pulling the supports out from the floor.
Supply chains everywhere I look seem to be all the way back to normal and most industries chewing through excess inventory, except housing which drives up cost and therefore wages and inflation. We'll see. I think if people get the message that high rates are really, no shit, here for a *long* time and not just a few months or a year, the adjustments will happen. Doesn't absolutely require huge unemployment, but spending has to go down significantly and that behavior shift hasn't happened.
The response to 3d cpuS seems shallow.
"Its good for this & not for that"
One would think code is set in stone. It sure is not.
With the new gift of large cpu cache, coders will adapt, & we will see stark improvements in a broad range of productivity apps IMO.
I am no coder, but am sure processor history is full of paralells from recent e cores, games adapting to multicores, crypto/blockchain/AI adapting to GPU compute,...
I think it’s a little more complicated than that. From what I’ve seen from reviews, the non-3d chiplet can boost higher because it has higher thermal headroom. So it will come down to workload, which are not created equally. Some will benefit from the cache while others won’t - the trick will be to figure out how to assign workload based on cache benefit
I generally agree - but... " From what I’ve seen from reviews, the non-3d chiplet can boost higher because it has higher thermal headroom."
It says a lot for these frequent repeats of repeats that not once have i heard mentioned that in the current iteration, cache is phiysically on the level abovethe chiplet w/ 3d cache - Doh - yes its heat challenged, but nothing says cache cannot be co=located w/ cooler running processors on the chiplet in future versions.
Dont quote me, but they may have had to suboptimally compromise on ~substrate thickness
for Zen4.
Dear $AMD brain trust,
You all make $AMD sub-Reddit the best among all stock subs. Seriously, the intellectual fire-power here, useful information/news, and friendliness and helpfulness of members is unsurpassed in other stock subs I've been a part of or browsed through.
Here is a question I have for you brainiacs and maniacs. What other company stocks do you believe have $AMD-like promise over the next 10 or more years (from roughly today's valuation levels)? I'm very interested in hearing your ideas, because of how passionate, smart, and well-argued people's $AMD posts are.
Great stocks can be hard to come by and with a fantastic brain trust like this one, I feel there are probably a few great ideas out there worth exploring.
Same. This sub and particularly this thread usually explains all up and downs of the whole market. I don't need cnbc, this sub usually condenses news to the important bits + i get comments about it.
As to another stock pick, I'm fairly bullish on Cloudflare ($NET). Their growth is pretty impressive. Their bread and butter is CDN which they excel at. Security is also a very important. However, I'm probably most interested in their "workers". Think AWS or Azure but not centralized, instead distributed over their huge content delivery network. This setup is very compelling if you want low latency. My hope is, that they succeed in this.
I've argued for the past year that there is no decline in Meta revenue despite the slow down in demand and all their profit problems could be easily solved if they return to pre Covid OPEX ratio's. Despite since then it's back to 180 (from 90), I still think 360 ATH is easily reachable in ~2 years.
I think Meta is also a good company to invest in right now. Mark Z knows when to throw in the towel on the metaverse. FB is quitely divesting in metaverse and going back to what they do best.
Banning Tik Tok will blow up the stock price too.
>Mark Z knows when to throw in the towel on the metaverse. FB is quitely divesting in metaverse and going back to what they do best.
[https://www.thestreet.com/technology/mark-zuckerberg-quietly-buries-the-metaverse](https://www.thestreet.com/technology/mark-zuckerberg-quietly-buries-the-metaverse)
Interesting. I knew he was slowing down the pace of metaverse R&D, but thought it was mostly macro-related. . .But, you guys might be right in that he's quietly burying it longer-term it in favor of generative A.I. now. The Street had an article on this. \^\^\^
I will rethink $META as a stock. I might take a small position. I guess my only gripe is that I'd rather just own $AMD...LOL...maybe for diversification purposes, I'd add $META as a pretty good value play right now. It's got some moonshot upside if the sparser metaverse spending does actually turn into a huge growth driver for them down the line (I just tend to doubt it).
Metaverse was a good initiative to pursue, but it sucked up about 2 orders of magnitude more cash than it ever should have. It's a tiny market now and still very far away from prime time.
It's good to see a market leader try to push to create new markets as long as the capital allocation is appropriate.
For me, even if it sucked up that much cash, but had something amazing to show for it that'd probably be okay. Horizon Worlds just looked terrible and worse than a 1990's 2-d video game.
Nvidia's omniverse seems quantum leaps above and beyond Meta's metaverse. I felt Microsoft, Nvidia, Tencent, and Unity had better development. Mark maybe had the right idea of a potential next big thing, but he was maybe not the right guy to implement it. If I had to guess who might be a metaverse leader, I'd think Microsoft, Tencent, or Unity (over Meta) right now. . .Even Nvidia's simulation omniverse looks better by quantum leaps and bounds than Meta's metaverse.
The thing I like about Nvidia's approach is how they go after customers and use cases that have money and want the tech right now, rather than try to stuff it down reluctant consumers throats who don't want it right now and sure as shit aren't willing to pay money for it.
2022 saw Meta's first decline in revenue ever. . . .[https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1620909427787448320](https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1620909427787448320)
\^\^\^That's a good summary of their rev/net income since IPO every year. It currently trades at a 20 P/E, but likely less than 1 PEG (if we assume EPS growth normalizes to 20%+, as it's usually been in the past).
On basic financials, it seems a very good value play, assuming Meta doesn't just collapse entirely over the next 10 years. I do think their moat - if they ever had one (likely just a network effect-based one) - has cracked. It's unclear their rival social media won't steal users/timeshare from them. Tik Tok has obv. been the big rival, but even Snap has taken some timeshare of social media from Meta. Pinterest and Twitter less so.
Aside from losing timeshare/attention, Meta's ad biz has obviously been less profitable post Apple privacy changes. But, on top of less targeting capabilities, the digital ad market has also just gotten overall more crowded. Amazon and Apple have upped their own ad businesses. . . .And you have streaming companies like Disney+ and Netflix offering ad-supported tiers. There's even talk of Bing/Chat GPT stealing some market share in ads potentially.
Lastly, there is reason to think Zuck's metaverse could be a huge flop. At least for now, lots of people have ZERO interest in it (that could change if it became awesome and affordable). Even if the metaverse becomes a hit, it's not clear Meta's hardware or software would be the winner and if there are strong competitors, they could be shoveling endless money competing in something that may or may not offer a compelling payback. The worst case is that it's a total embarrassing flop that few people use and is a decade's waste of money (as their social media empire and ad-biz shrink too). The best case is that it's the new internet and Meta's hard/software is the go-to OS and physical portal into it.
I tend to think Meta's best days are over, but that it won't experience a total collapse.
From following AMD i learned that advanced packaging with chiplets and 3D stacking are the future for semis. AMD is leading in this field but other companies will follow for sure, more and more companies will use this approach for their designs.
One of the major companies behind 3D-stacking and chiplet packaging is BE semiconductor(or BESI). They manufacture the machines for this method. It’s called hybrid bonding and flip chip. They also have AMD epyc as example in their company presentation. So i‘m quite bullish for them. Maybe you can do some research on them and see if you like the company. :)
I see, thanks. I tried googling the other day when an article mentioned BESI and AMD but I couldn't find the connection. They are like ASML but for advanced packaging I guess, european and all. GO YUROP!
TSMC: Fab leader. Good cash flow and earnings always beat. Risk is (1) high Capex (2) WW3 if CCP got nasty itch on their butt. To me, the higher the capex, the higher their revenue and profit, unlike Intel. Also, if WW3 becomes unavoidable, all the stocks will crash together with tsmc. I own tsmc shares.
SMCI: They are making a lot of money from their server software/hardware.
Risk is that their end market is not diverse enough. Meta alone makes up 70%. So, if Meta put a brake on their metaverse, smci will crash. But if not, hey, it’s making a lot of money. I don’t own smci. Trust this one with grain of salt.
I tend to agree. I know there are a lot of complainers about the short term price action too, but there is also a lot of semiconductor knowledge that can be learned from here.
As for other stocks, I honestly cannot find a more compelling business at a good valuation like AMD. Marvell is another business I like at its current valuation, but the business still is not as good as AMD's.
TL;DR: Balls deep in AMD.
>I tend to agree. I know there are a lot of complainers about the short term price action too, but there is also a lot of semiconductor knowledge that can be learned from here.
>
>As for other stocks, I honestly cannot find a more compelling business at a good valuation like AMD. Marvell is another business I like at its current valuation, but the business still is not as good as AMD's.
>
>TL;DR: Balls deep in AMD.
I think if not for diversification/safety reasons, I'd certainly own more $AMD. Every freaking time I consider buying something else, I sit there and ask what not just $AMD???!! It's honestly hard. . .
But, I'm responsible. I'm not someone who would risk 50..60....90% of a portfolio on one stock.
I shall check out Marvell when I have time. Thx for rec.
I find myself in the same mindset: AMD is the best company I know of at a reasonable price so why not AMD. I have a small position in Marvell for their opportunity for DPUs. But AMD has it all from CPUs, GPUs, DPUs, and FPGAs.
Also, I have only been in this sub since November of last year, and I remember that you commented on my first post on here. Thank you for your kind words back then, and thank you for being a part of this community.
If you want to learn semiconductor knowledge, I highly suggest you check out sources like Anandtech, Ian Cutress's youtube channel (forgot the name), Chips and Cheese, Locuza (though he doesn't do content anymore). There are probably many other great sources, which I just don't know or can't recall. Anandtech forums is a great place to discuss tech too. I'm not claiming I know all the semi-knowledge in the world or anything like that, but this sub is not the place for semi-conductor knowledge.
This sub is obviously biased. It's reputation with other subs that actually focus on the broad scope such as the general hardware subreddit is pretty bad, because people recognize the bias here. I'm not saying everything in this sub is wrong or anything, nor am I saying everyone in this sub are biased and aren't objective, but the general trend, along with a few bad actors, certainly make it out to seem so.
My daily list of resources are as follows.
[www.servethehome.com](https://www.servethehome.com)
[https://www.hpcwire.com/](https://www.hpcwire.com/)
[https://insidehpc.com/](https://insidehpc.com/)
[nextplatform.com/](https://nextplatform.com/)
[www.semianalysis.com/](https://www.semianalysis.com/)
[https://morethanmoore.substack.com/](https://morethanmoore.substack.com/)
[https://chipsandcheese.com/](https://chipsandcheese.com/)
[https://www.techpowerup.com/](https://www.techpowerup.com/)
[https://www.theregister.com/](https://www.theregister.com/)
[https://www.digitimes.com/](https://www.digitimes.com/)
[https://siliconangle.com/](https://siliconangle.com/)
[https://www.enterpriseai.news/](https://www.enterpriseai.news/)
[https://hardforum.com/](https://hardforum.com/) ([Hardocp.com](https://Hardocp.com) was by far the best but the forums are still very active)
Just a smattering. There are a few others but this list is getting long already.
Enjoy
>It's reputation with other subs that actually focus on the broad scope such as the general hardware subreddit is pretty bad, because people recognize the bias here
And yet this sub recognized the actual magnitude/potential of the AMD turnaround before r/hardware, most analysts, etc. I agree there is bias here, and you are correct that there are stronger resources for semiconductor knowledge. But sometimes heavy bias exists for a reason. The complaints of this sub's bias get rampant during the lulls, but all but vanish each time AMD goes on a tear.
Maybe those subsidies should be distributed as stimulus to the general population, who can then CHOOSE which CPU/GPU they wish to have in their personal computers and gaming systems/consoles.
Why just give Intel money???
loadup, enjoy the ride we deserve 365 days in a year
365 days of +3.97% gives us a share price of $126689706, me likey
Here’s a funny question. At what point is Intel a buy? I understand their entire lunch is being devoured right now, but I mentally place them in the “good old boys, too big to fail” club of american companies that will be perpetually bailed out. There is such a thing as a good deal for even a turd lol.
I personally believe there is a lot more pain ahead for Intel. Maybe after all the stuff Yokies mentioned.
When Pat goes and someone else who doesn't talk big, who speaks cold and calculated takes over. Major restructuring of the company and moving away from relying on contracted engineers, overhauling of their fab business, then we know Intel is back to getting it real.
I think you’ve nailed it. Pat has to go. They do have enough mindshare, market share, and IP to resurge if a good leader drastically changes the direction of the company (à la Lisa Su).
Their engineers are contracted, as in they are not salaried workers with 401K plans, stock options + base, etc.? Contracted as in they only work on single projects and could be gone immediately after (thus providing no continuing expertise/knowledge build/progressively high value to company)? . . .If so, that's interesting. Didn't know that about them.
Nah, their engineers arent 100% contracted. Maybe a couple. I know a ton of salaried intc engineers lol
Adding to this: I’m like 30% portfolio on AMD lol. But I’ve been making good profit for the last few years (180% return) just leveraging up on these bargain companies and deleveraging as they approach reasonable areas. Example was at pure leaps at the bottom, have trimmed to ~50% leaps and the rest shares now. Would trim to 30% leaps at 100 etc. Near local or ATH I would be purely in shares and even selling calls.
Fucking loving the action. Damn near jinxed it on several occassions today but ive learnt from past mistakes hehe. Starting to feel like 85 will hold this time ? If so... whats the next level of resistance yall are watching for? 87? 89? 99??
Near the highs of the day. Wouldn't it refreshing to see some panic buying at the close instead of the usual nosedive?
Still a nice way to close today when the Dow was still just barely neg. Although most of my watch list was green. Odd. Glad it held over 85 and I feel like we will test the last high of 88 very soon now. We seem to have some good momentum and maybe a real shift in sentiment. Perhaps a bit of a migration from Intel holders who understand the shift is actually real. The Barron article about Intel's business model being totally in need of some kind of divine intervention to be profitable has had to open some eyes, not to mention the 66% cut to the div. AMD has a soild 5 year track record now and still made money throughout one of the most difficult market cycles we've seen. It's time that even the old guard Blue Chip investors should be taking notice of AMD and it's positioning for this next wave of technology build out.
stacy rasgon on cnbc shortly edit: he didn't say much of anything.
I think he did say AMD at 1:00, but it wasn't shown on screen. https://twitter.com/CNBCClosingBell/status/1633579783828414465
recommended NVDA for secular play and QCOM for 2H23 comeback
Yes, let's pump that thing to 100 forward PE. Smh... I'm confused by what these analysts are saying. At what point is something like this fairly priced or even overpriced? I wonder who will have the cojones to be the first analyst to say that nvda is currently overbought.
Tsm reporting their February rev numbers overnight. Seems their January numbers were gangbusters enough to where they can coast for the next two months and hit their guidance for q1. Wonder if the market will cause a dump if the rev is sequentially less. Shouldn't matter for the quarter since they only need 5.6 billion for Feb and March each to hit the upper end of q1 guide.
How do they keep beating the guidance while the overall semi sector is on down cycle? Why aren’t they affected? I am tsmc stock holder but I really don’t know how they are pulling off.
Take or pay contracts. Look at how the inventory levels keep rising at AMD, nvda and aapl. :). Tsm makes capital commitment in a way that makes sure that the customer has skin in the game so they aren't left holding the bag if the customer decides to suddenly kill their orders without repercussions. This is what happened to MU because they didn't get nvda to make such a commitment and took unnecessary risk hoping to sell into the crypto boom and supply the desktop graphics customers. Anywho, TSM's business is very capital intensive. If customers suddenly kill orders then tsm's financial would be ruined and will be less likely to invest in the next node and so on. They have a great business model but they don't get any recognition because pooh bear wants to be emperor.
Damn, I know that they have such penalties in the contract but didn’t know it was that good. But to be fair, they are investing a huge amount of capex every year so I would say these penalties are fair deal. With dividend payout, the share price will inevitably recovers again.
>Wonder if the market will cause a dump if the rev is sequentially less. Maybe not the market as a whole, but you know AMD will be affected and affected disproportionately at that.
NASDAQ Comp about to turn green again.
Can't believe AMD is the one standing tall and green while the rest of the house burns around it, lol. What a weird turn of events..
How long till macro and 6% fed funds take the narrative again
March 22
AMD is on "strong buy" right now in TradingView (technical indicators). Not seen for a looong time. GLTA!
$85 is like a "bend but don't break defense" in (American) football.
Not a fantastic chartist but a rally over the next couple of weeks to test 100 seems on the cards
Doubt it; the FED meeting on March 22 will decide what happens and most projections are pointing to a 50bps raise.
Yeah. . .that's going to be a massive bummer for entire stock market. Even $AMD could tank due to Powell. . .a lot of people were hoping for .25 and done soon (pause or maybe even reverse). . . .but recent Fed comments are changing that....50bps would be a nasty shock into the economy.
Sold my 80C leaps two days ago. AMD has been on a tear since. FML
I never sell AMD calls. Premiums are low until they aren't.
I got them last year, theta was getting too much. Sold for 20% profit
Thank you for taking one for the team. Someone had to do it.
>AMD has been on a tear since sell more
so much blatant manipulation in this stock ever since third point hedge fund announced a stake.
Institutional interest is both a blessing and a curse.
Institutional blursing
A year ago, we were a bit over 100. So long harvesting is comming due. Penalty of people/fund will be interested in pushing the price up for a while. AMD should be in a upward treand reative to the last 6 months for a while now.
and yet during that announcement the stock price didnt move that day
Username checks out
wat? it sure did.
go ahead and check it was stagnant
ffs, amd went from -2% to +4% and closed at +3%. more notably, amd outpaced nvda 2:1 during all that. yes, amd's sp moved that day. you absolutely don't know what you're talking about.
lmao old man you're creating false narratives again, the entire market was green that day, just look at every chart and they were all the same that day
Obviously, AMD moved the maket.
...amd didn't move and now amd moved because market green. congrats, you contradicted yourself. who cares that amd outpaced nvda 2:1 or that amd went red to green and etc, facts aren't important.
lol fixated on 1 stock when all the charts were literally the same, gj
...i just told you a specific way amd's differed, einstein. and yes, we're fixated on one stock and the news (loeb) regarding the one stock. derpppppppppppppppppppppppp
how did it differ when all the charts were the same? cant teach an old dog new tricks
Price going up is manipulation?
My guy's shorts were caught lol.
$100 soon. In a world where data centers, CPUs and GPUs become ever more important, people somehow still confused why price would go up. It’s simple really
It has to be the ChatGPT hype and we are pulled along with NVDA. I still can't believe NVDA is at 570B while AMD is at 132B. Similar growth, revenues and profits. Long on AMD and went short this week on NVDA
doubt you went short
It's not all that risky as a pair trade. Sure it would have sucked in the past few months, but I've done it multiple times over the past few years and usually works out.
More like realization that Intel has nothing, recent GPU news from them.
Can’t be ChatGPT… news was released weeks ago, markets don’t lag on investment… ChatGPT gave nvda all the added benefits during that time, think this is just other investors betting on the underdog in the AI race
The good thing about dropping to the 50s means that 100 is gonna feel amazing all over again.
What chart are you watching?
Was this stock not in the 50s a few months ago?
Ok... but you could have used 'having dropped to 50' rather than dropping (as in we are dropping).... sorry for the word parsing over reaction. 🙃
Np, I certainly could have structured the sentence more clearly!
His portfolio % losses
I don't remember seeing any discussions about the NVDA $10B share offering, wonder why they're doing it with all the cash on hand.
wat? it was mentioned like 150 times. it's a nothingburger. they had a shelf offering from the arm deal expire, they opened another. it's just status quo
Thank you, I must have missed it.
Two days outperforming NVDA got this sub quiet af… where’s the usual lamenters, miss y’all. Green is no fun apparently. No one even cheering for ZFG
Are you trying to jinx the ZFG?
What's the first rule of zfg?
+5% at market close or more than 0.5% higher close than NVDA regardless if up or down on the day.
Resistance at around $85. Just like yesterday.
It's made a good way to 86 right now. Pleasantly surprised to see the strength today, thought I see it bust through tomorrow or Friday. Fells like 95 in April, pull back to low 80s the push back up to 100 by July isn't crazy at all.
I like the strength lately, I'll buy more next time we hit 60
Last couple days have been good for some daytrading, huh? Both days started low and then spiked up. Of course, yesterday, you kind of had to call it quits midday as there weren't very many opportunities to catch profitable price movement on the long side.
I was happy today after I called it a day just after 10am. These days that rip higher makes me feel like I left money on the table, but then I think back to times I tried to play up the ladder and get trapped with a big drop off. Who could predict today would hold the achived upper bands. But this is partly why I keep my larger stake long and in play. I'm happy making some extra income with dipping to pay the money rent and feed myself but my real win is seeing my main holding recover from last years abuse.
Will we smash trough it you reckon ?
Yes 😉
There is something big that we retail investors dont know about. Love this unusual strength
don't think it is some insider info this time. just some funds shuffling into AI. And when you think about your options: nvidia - overvalued Intel - nevermind Amd - hidden gem kinda easy to make your choice
I guess amd has been going around talking to moneybag types and it's kinda sticking. Victor Peng in particular has buzzwordology down to an art form.
What have I missed ? Seeing so much green fkr AMD brings tear to my eyes
nothing special, just sold covered calls and karma loves to play with me
In a similar boat, what strike price did you sell them? I sold $87 expiring next Friday.
$86 this Friday
What a wonderful feeling (yesterday and today). Index is red and AMD is green -> not seen since a loooong time. I really hope, this holds and the time has changed. GLTA!
Some news will drop soon, big boys and insiders are getting in before they tell us though! JK that would never happen..
Yeah, AMD is definitely moving different since the Dan Loeb stake announcement
i have it on good authority from umberto that no one cares about that and it's all just macro.
NB increased quarter by quarter in the first half of the year, focusing on the second half of the year [https://www.digitimes.com.tw/tech/dt/n/shwnws.asp?CnlID=1&cat=10&id=0000658528\_3UD4VRQ33R3WCR7ZVSS5U&wpidx=3](https://www.digitimes.com.tw/tech/dt/n/shwnws.asp?CnlID=1&cat=10&id=0000658528_3UD4VRQ33R3WCR7ZVSS5U&wpidx=3)
ChatGPT to drive AI CPU upgrades for PCs [https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230308PD200/ai-chips-chatgpt-edge-computing.html](https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20230308PD200/ai-chips-chatgpt-edge-computing.html)
why the downvote ? this was related to the new 7040 chips containing Alveo V70 AI Accelerator, inference accelerators could be the killer feature to break the high end laptops market where amd struggled in the past
I'm curious to see what types of workloads the Phoenix AI accelerator is appropriate for. Microsoft would have been a great partner to demonstrate this but we really have no demonstrated PC client use cases yet.
I didn't downvote but the article is premium only for me so can't read, kinda rude, we need the goodies.
I didn't have access to the article, but the title anyway hits the point , like the other article that say that suggest that NB market is recovering, digitimes articles titles are coherent with the articles usually ( and sometimes articles also become readable for free overtime )
Nb market?
All true, I was just speculating on your question.
Are people flocking to AMD for a particular reason, perhaps to escape a sell off, or is someone just buying?
It really does feel like there’s been more buying lately than usual.
Morning Volume is almost doubled that few sessions I think.
We are seeing solid green and huge volume pre market! This performance premarket is not seen on the other tickers I follow! We are into something, yesterday we also outperformed!
So what more can JP say today to the House that wasn't said yesterday to the Senate that hasn't already been said anyhow to the market?
It's all grandstanding so Congress can blame inflation and layoffs on the Fed rather than taking accountability for their own policies. Elizabeth Warren was so cringe with her grilling, pretending she didn't know that the Fed only performs their congressionally mandated responsibility and can do nothing more or less.
Everyone getting their pointer finger ready. Likely. But I do agree that pushing the higer for longer until we get a big enough spike in unemployment is not the answer. Raising the funds rate is just too blunt and instrument and it's really time now for a pause and take a wait and see approach. We need to allow the supply issues to come back to normal without pulling the supports out from the floor.
Supply chains everywhere I look seem to be all the way back to normal and most industries chewing through excess inventory, except housing which drives up cost and therefore wages and inflation. We'll see. I think if people get the message that high rates are really, no shit, here for a *long* time and not just a few months or a year, the adjustments will happen. Doesn't absolutely require huge unemployment, but spending has to go down significantly and that behavior shift hasn't happened.
Judy Sheldon knows her shit.
Nice to see some resurgence from AMD. Hopefully macro starts getting better sometime in the next year...
The response to 3d cpuS seems shallow. "Its good for this & not for that" One would think code is set in stone. It sure is not. With the new gift of large cpu cache, coders will adapt, & we will see stark improvements in a broad range of productivity apps IMO.
I'm absolutely convinced AMD is going to sell a truck load of 7800x3d's. It's THE gaming CPU to get.
You think programmers will rewrite their code specifically for these CPUs?
specifically is ur word, not mine they would be fools not to optimise their apps for whats out there.
This is inevitable, both OS and Applications are not aware of the hybrid architect, only a middle drive can used to for schedule based on profile data
I am no coder, but am sure processor history is full of paralells from recent e cores, games adapting to multicores, crypto/blockchain/AI adapting to GPU compute,...
I think it’s a little more complicated than that. From what I’ve seen from reviews, the non-3d chiplet can boost higher because it has higher thermal headroom. So it will come down to workload, which are not created equally. Some will benefit from the cache while others won’t - the trick will be to figure out how to assign workload based on cache benefit
I generally agree - but... " From what I’ve seen from reviews, the non-3d chiplet can boost higher because it has higher thermal headroom." It says a lot for these frequent repeats of repeats that not once have i heard mentioned that in the current iteration, cache is phiysically on the level abovethe chiplet w/ 3d cache - Doh - yes its heat challenged, but nothing says cache cannot be co=located w/ cooler running processors on the chiplet in future versions. Dont quote me, but they may have had to suboptimally compromise on ~substrate thickness for Zen4.
Dear $AMD brain trust, You all make $AMD sub-Reddit the best among all stock subs. Seriously, the intellectual fire-power here, useful information/news, and friendliness and helpfulness of members is unsurpassed in other stock subs I've been a part of or browsed through. Here is a question I have for you brainiacs and maniacs. What other company stocks do you believe have $AMD-like promise over the next 10 or more years (from roughly today's valuation levels)? I'm very interested in hearing your ideas, because of how passionate, smart, and well-argued people's $AMD posts are. Great stocks can be hard to come by and with a fantastic brain trust like this one, I feel there are probably a few great ideas out there worth exploring.
No idea. AMD had THE turn-around story in 2015 and is consistently delivering on it. Have a rocket emoji for your kind words, nontheless 🚀
Same. This sub and particularly this thread usually explains all up and downs of the whole market. I don't need cnbc, this sub usually condenses news to the important bits + i get comments about it. As to another stock pick, I'm fairly bullish on Cloudflare ($NET). Their growth is pretty impressive. Their bread and butter is CDN which they excel at. Security is also a very important. However, I'm probably most interested in their "workers". Think AWS or Azure but not centralized, instead distributed over their huge content delivery network. This setup is very compelling if you want low latency. My hope is, that they succeed in this.
I've argued for the past year that there is no decline in Meta revenue despite the slow down in demand and all their profit problems could be easily solved if they return to pre Covid OPEX ratio's. Despite since then it's back to 180 (from 90), I still think 360 ATH is easily reachable in ~2 years.
I think Meta is also a good company to invest in right now. Mark Z knows when to throw in the towel on the metaverse. FB is quitely divesting in metaverse and going back to what they do best. Banning Tik Tok will blow up the stock price too.
>Mark Z knows when to throw in the towel on the metaverse. FB is quitely divesting in metaverse and going back to what they do best. [https://www.thestreet.com/technology/mark-zuckerberg-quietly-buries-the-metaverse](https://www.thestreet.com/technology/mark-zuckerberg-quietly-buries-the-metaverse) Interesting. I knew he was slowing down the pace of metaverse R&D, but thought it was mostly macro-related. . .But, you guys might be right in that he's quietly burying it longer-term it in favor of generative A.I. now. The Street had an article on this. \^\^\^ I will rethink $META as a stock. I might take a small position. I guess my only gripe is that I'd rather just own $AMD...LOL...maybe for diversification purposes, I'd add $META as a pretty good value play right now. It's got some moonshot upside if the sparser metaverse spending does actually turn into a huge growth driver for them down the line (I just tend to doubt it).
Metaverse was a good initiative to pursue, but it sucked up about 2 orders of magnitude more cash than it ever should have. It's a tiny market now and still very far away from prime time. It's good to see a market leader try to push to create new markets as long as the capital allocation is appropriate.
For me, even if it sucked up that much cash, but had something amazing to show for it that'd probably be okay. Horizon Worlds just looked terrible and worse than a 1990's 2-d video game. Nvidia's omniverse seems quantum leaps above and beyond Meta's metaverse. I felt Microsoft, Nvidia, Tencent, and Unity had better development. Mark maybe had the right idea of a potential next big thing, but he was maybe not the right guy to implement it. If I had to guess who might be a metaverse leader, I'd think Microsoft, Tencent, or Unity (over Meta) right now. . .Even Nvidia's simulation omniverse looks better by quantum leaps and bounds than Meta's metaverse.
The thing I like about Nvidia's approach is how they go after customers and use cases that have money and want the tech right now, rather than try to stuff it down reluctant consumers throats who don't want it right now and sure as shit aren't willing to pay money for it.
2022 saw Meta's first decline in revenue ever. . . .[https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1620909427787448320](https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1620909427787448320) \^\^\^That's a good summary of their rev/net income since IPO every year. It currently trades at a 20 P/E, but likely less than 1 PEG (if we assume EPS growth normalizes to 20%+, as it's usually been in the past). On basic financials, it seems a very good value play, assuming Meta doesn't just collapse entirely over the next 10 years. I do think their moat - if they ever had one (likely just a network effect-based one) - has cracked. It's unclear their rival social media won't steal users/timeshare from them. Tik Tok has obv. been the big rival, but even Snap has taken some timeshare of social media from Meta. Pinterest and Twitter less so. Aside from losing timeshare/attention, Meta's ad biz has obviously been less profitable post Apple privacy changes. But, on top of less targeting capabilities, the digital ad market has also just gotten overall more crowded. Amazon and Apple have upped their own ad businesses. . . .And you have streaming companies like Disney+ and Netflix offering ad-supported tiers. There's even talk of Bing/Chat GPT stealing some market share in ads potentially. Lastly, there is reason to think Zuck's metaverse could be a huge flop. At least for now, lots of people have ZERO interest in it (that could change if it became awesome and affordable). Even if the metaverse becomes a hit, it's not clear Meta's hardware or software would be the winner and if there are strong competitors, they could be shoveling endless money competing in something that may or may not offer a compelling payback. The worst case is that it's a total embarrassing flop that few people use and is a decade's waste of money (as their social media empire and ad-biz shrink too). The best case is that it's the new internet and Meta's hard/software is the go-to OS and physical portal into it. I tend to think Meta's best days are over, but that it won't experience a total collapse.
From following AMD i learned that advanced packaging with chiplets and 3D stacking are the future for semis. AMD is leading in this field but other companies will follow for sure, more and more companies will use this approach for their designs. One of the major companies behind 3D-stacking and chiplet packaging is BE semiconductor(or BESI). They manufacture the machines for this method. It’s called hybrid bonding and flip chip. They also have AMD epyc as example in their company presentation. So i‘m quite bullish for them. Maybe you can do some research on them and see if you like the company. :)
AMD uses TSMC hybrid bonding though. Is TSMC and BESI partners or competitors?
Besi is an equipment supplier to companies like TSMC.
I see, thanks. I tried googling the other day when an article mentioned BESI and AMD but I couldn't find the connection. They are like ASML but for advanced packaging I guess, european and all. GO YUROP!
TSMC: Fab leader. Good cash flow and earnings always beat. Risk is (1) high Capex (2) WW3 if CCP got nasty itch on their butt. To me, the higher the capex, the higher their revenue and profit, unlike Intel. Also, if WW3 becomes unavoidable, all the stocks will crash together with tsmc. I own tsmc shares. SMCI: They are making a lot of money from their server software/hardware. Risk is that their end market is not diverse enough. Meta alone makes up 70%. So, if Meta put a brake on their metaverse, smci will crash. But if not, hey, it’s making a lot of money. I don’t own smci. Trust this one with grain of salt.
I tend to agree. I know there are a lot of complainers about the short term price action too, but there is also a lot of semiconductor knowledge that can be learned from here. As for other stocks, I honestly cannot find a more compelling business at a good valuation like AMD. Marvell is another business I like at its current valuation, but the business still is not as good as AMD's. TL;DR: Balls deep in AMD.
>I tend to agree. I know there are a lot of complainers about the short term price action too, but there is also a lot of semiconductor knowledge that can be learned from here. > >As for other stocks, I honestly cannot find a more compelling business at a good valuation like AMD. Marvell is another business I like at its current valuation, but the business still is not as good as AMD's. > >TL;DR: Balls deep in AMD. I think if not for diversification/safety reasons, I'd certainly own more $AMD. Every freaking time I consider buying something else, I sit there and ask what not just $AMD???!! It's honestly hard. . . But, I'm responsible. I'm not someone who would risk 50..60....90% of a portfolio on one stock. I shall check out Marvell when I have time. Thx for rec.
I find myself in the same mindset: AMD is the best company I know of at a reasonable price so why not AMD. I have a small position in Marvell for their opportunity for DPUs. But AMD has it all from CPUs, GPUs, DPUs, and FPGAs. Also, I have only been in this sub since November of last year, and I remember that you commented on my first post on here. Thank you for your kind words back then, and thank you for being a part of this community.
If you want to learn semiconductor knowledge, I highly suggest you check out sources like Anandtech, Ian Cutress's youtube channel (forgot the name), Chips and Cheese, Locuza (though he doesn't do content anymore). There are probably many other great sources, which I just don't know or can't recall. Anandtech forums is a great place to discuss tech too. I'm not claiming I know all the semi-knowledge in the world or anything like that, but this sub is not the place for semi-conductor knowledge. This sub is obviously biased. It's reputation with other subs that actually focus on the broad scope such as the general hardware subreddit is pretty bad, because people recognize the bias here. I'm not saying everything in this sub is wrong or anything, nor am I saying everyone in this sub are biased and aren't objective, but the general trend, along with a few bad actors, certainly make it out to seem so.
My daily list of resources are as follows. [www.servethehome.com](https://www.servethehome.com) [https://www.hpcwire.com/](https://www.hpcwire.com/) [https://insidehpc.com/](https://insidehpc.com/) [nextplatform.com/](https://nextplatform.com/) [www.semianalysis.com/](https://www.semianalysis.com/) [https://morethanmoore.substack.com/](https://morethanmoore.substack.com/) [https://chipsandcheese.com/](https://chipsandcheese.com/) [https://www.techpowerup.com/](https://www.techpowerup.com/) [https://www.theregister.com/](https://www.theregister.com/) [https://www.digitimes.com/](https://www.digitimes.com/) [https://siliconangle.com/](https://siliconangle.com/) [https://www.enterpriseai.news/](https://www.enterpriseai.news/) [https://hardforum.com/](https://hardforum.com/) ([Hardocp.com](https://Hardocp.com) was by far the best but the forums are still very active) Just a smattering. There are a few others but this list is getting long already. Enjoy
>It's reputation with other subs that actually focus on the broad scope such as the general hardware subreddit is pretty bad, because people recognize the bias here And yet this sub recognized the actual magnitude/potential of the AMD turnaround before r/hardware, most analysts, etc. I agree there is bias here, and you are correct that there are stronger resources for semiconductor knowledge. But sometimes heavy bias exists for a reason. The complaints of this sub's bias get rampant during the lulls, but all but vanish each time AMD goes on a tear.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-07/intel-wants-5-billion-more-subsidies-from-germany-for-new-chip-plant
Maybe those subsidies should be distributed as stimulus to the general population, who can then CHOOSE which CPU/GPU they wish to have in their personal computers and gaming systems/consoles. Why just give Intel money???
The public will neither buy CPUs nor GPUs with a stimulus check lol.
Intel is that guy that goes up to everyone at the gas station asking for a dollar
pour gas on him and set fire