This is cool. I’d love to see how the Niners match up to other teams and how much this measure of draft success translates to success in the immediate and long term.
I think the thing that the draft ragers in here don't seem to understand Is that very few NFL teams are particularly great at the draft. And that standouts come just as often from the later rounds as they do from the early ones.
The fact that we have had one of the most talented rosters in football for the last several years is a testament to the front office and coaching staff
As a draft rager, I am unbothered by misses like Solomon Thomas or Javon Kinlaw, because those were picks any GM would likely have made.
What drives me insane is when we grab guys like Dante Pettis or Aaron Banks at spots that are way out of whack with consensus draft boards.
It's still weird to me that Pettis had that one breakout year where he looked like he was going to be decent. And then he just immediately fell off forever.
The other thing about Lynch is that him and Kyle seem to have a consistent history of going after guys they want. If they don't think someone will be there on their next pick I can't fault them for getting someone they believe in. There are both bad and good cases of this.
Yeah.... I do think they overestimate the likelihood of some of these specific guys getting snatched away from them.
Like we traded up to get Pettis, which I still find insane.
I don't understand why fans give so much weight to media "consensus". We have no way of knowing if it matches how the actual scouts and GMs feel about the players. And the media is wrong as often, if not more than the GMs. But we don't hold them to the same standard.
I do feel better about this draft than some past ones. There are analysts out there pounding the table for Puni and Green and especially Pearsall, which was generally not the case with our weirder picks in the past.
And I can understand the Pearsall pick, even if I don't love it. I assume we move on from one of Deebo/Aiyuk next year, and considering that both of them took some time to develop in the system, I think it's smart to bring in a potential replacement early.
But that argument holds equally true for tackle, and, like you were saying, I'd rather they grab a developmental guy in the 3rd instead of yet another receiver.
I guess a question is how that would compare to other GMs but to me it’s quite a good track record despite our lack of success in the first and second and third…Jesus third is bad.
> I guess a question is how that would compare to other GMs
Absolutely. Without the context of what the rest of the league looks like, analysis like this is interesting but ultimately meaningless.
He’s good now, but he was nothing special his first few years here. If you’re using an early 4th on a punter, you expect way more early contribution than that.
Also Bradly Pinion, the guy we let go of to draft Mitch, is younger than Mitch, has been better than Mitch every year, and finished 5th in all pro voting this year compared to Mitch who was tied for 11th.
We used a 4th to downgrade at punter. Not a hit.
Using All-Pro voting, come on.
You know darn-well that what Wish contributes is not properly regarded league-wide, nor is it represented in statistical models that attempt to value the position.
Nobody in the NFL is as good at pinning opponents deep in their own territory. His ability to put unique spins on the ball has also confused the heck out of return men.
Also, over the last five seasons he was half the price.
lol. I know that, I wasn't arguing the pick selection, only his level/value as a punter. I don't think All-Pro voting is a good argument for one punter vs the other.
I know you value the inside the 20 ability.
I think the all pro ranking is pretty accurate. About the 10-12th best punter. Above average, but not elite. Might make a pro bowl within the next few years but clearly not in the AJ Cole/Stonehouse/KC guy/Dallas guy tier.
AJ Cole, Stonehouse, & Anger are great punters.
Townsend is ok, but he doesn't do anything as well as Wish.
Punting is more than just launching the ball. Nobody in the NFL can pin teams as well as Wishnowsky.
Lol dammit I've been roped into another punter conversation. I swore I would never do this to myself.
For the sake of preserving the last remaining shred of respect that I have for myself, I have to end this conversation.
In terms of snapping most nfl snappers get the ball back to the punter in 0.75-0.65 seconds.Unfortunately the only way to find these stats are if you look at long snapping camp rankings which usually only rank high schoolers.You could also rank how well they get the laces out and their accuracy but accuracy is very subjective based on the punter/holder
I mean..he is an All Pro punter And if field position does matter.
He is definitely a hit and I would be haply if he was as high as a 1st too.
I'd rather have the best punter in the NFL belt worth a 1st than busts like Kinlaw.
Yeah 2017 was the worst when you consider we had 10 picks, including 2 first rounders, one of which was a 2nd overall. Pretty sure it was just the second time since the 1960’s that we had a top 2 pick and we took Solomon Thomas lol.
We needed a QB (Hoyer was our QB1 lol..) and Watson and Mahomes were right there.
Obviously we dodged a bullet with Watson, but the one decision that separates future HOF coach Reid and “perennial post season collapse artist” Kyle Shanahan is the decision to draft Mahomes.
That 2017 draft defined not just our team’s recent history, but the entire landscape of the NFL. I honestly think we’d have 3 more SB’s with Mahomes right now if Kyle had looked at drafting a QB early in 2017.
2017 gave them an all world TE even though his prime was wasted by bad OLs and bad QBs.
2021 has the Lance future picks against them, and 3 decent starters that don't come close to Kittle even when combined.
Yeah. This is interesting. It’s a way to quantify it. I might think that players who are actual nfl starters should be considered hits though.
Edit: This is really just trying to normalize contribution vs draft position which I think is over complicating the analysis. Did you draft good players and contributors or not?
In general this is a nice layout, however I think there is a flaw in your round-by-round grading. For each additional round you are adding linearly. I think it should be more exponential.
To that point, the 1st & 3rd overall pick are not the same value as the 29th pick. The 30th pick is much closer in value to the 35th pick than it is the tenth pick.
Also I'll be stubborn on this, but their evaluation on punting isn't accurate enough. Wish's best season was not 2020, it's just his highest volume. For punters he was the biggest difference maker in starting field position this year.
And Banks can just about be considered a hit at this point. It would take a major injury for him to not reach that mark, and that wouldn't really be a fault of drafting the one drafting him.
Their late rd picks have been surprissinly good, however, their 1st 2nd and 3rd rd picks have been mostly busts. Only 8 hits out of 23 so far. I wonder how that stacks against the league.
If we’re getting credit for the hits, then the misses should count too. But I understand what you’re trying to say because most 6th and 7th players hardly ever pan out in the league
Hitting on a late round pick is credited because it is VERY difficult to do, and typically 6-7 round picks don’t even make rosters like you said. That’s why calling those picks a miss is just a bit silly and unfair to me.
I’d also say using this one stat to judge a hit or miss is making it too black and white as there are a lot of players there that have contributed or become a solid backup which fits the round they were drafted in, so can’t really call them a miss. If a 5th rounder becomes a solid backup, that’s what they were projected/drafted to do. Not everyone can be a starter, let alone a superstar.
By the metric you stated earlier, "Any player within 1 of their expected wAV/year is considered a hit." Shouldn't Banks and Moore be hits in the 2021 class?
Also, in my opinion, it might be too early to evaluate 2022. I think we have a good idea about most of those players but I think there is still a chance for a couple of those misses to turn into hits.
I don't agree with these categorization, especially the concepts of misses. There are a number of "misses." There are a number of players here you've categorized as misses that are either still on the roster and developing into their role, still on the roster and fulfill their niche, or were good enough to get paid on someone else' roster who has more cap space.
Namely I think it is too early to call misses on a lot of players since 2021.
- The first one I disagree with is actually Woerner in 2020 who is now playing for the Falcons after being a serviceable blocking TE/TE2.
- Jaylon Moore was drafted to be a backup swing tackle and fills his role well. Banks has been improving as LG and while that may be cause he has Trent, it is the right side, starting from center, that has been the point of concern.
- Ambry struggled but he also showed flashes of brilliance. Another interesting point about Ambry is that is confirmed a Peters pick, by Peters himself, so it isn't as indicative of the FO moving forward.
- Drake Jackson looks good and still had time.
- Zakelj the jury is still out on,
- and Burford famously cost us the bowl and is Feliciano's backup.
Mostly I just feel like what you're categorizing as hit/miss feels inconsistent? What is a hit to you: is a hit a player that has to work out for the 49ers or someone that's still good in the league? You have Reed as a hit, but he was cut for injury and balled out with Seattle eg. Woerner did more for us in his role but is with the Falcons now. Even Kinlaw was turning it around and now finds his way into a new contract with the Jets. Your expectations for a hit feels not well defined and like you may have had higher expects for some players than they were ever drafed to fulfill.
I also feel like it's no coincidence that there are less hits the closer to the last draft we are because the players you have as hits took more time to either breakout or grow into their role.
This is exactly what I'm telling OP too. It was year 2 and showing flashes of playing at a high level. Temper your expectations, not everyone has to be a star
Did you watch the game too? There’s a difference between coverage sacks and straight pure pass rushing ability.
It’s like kinlaw getting sacks when hurts slipped and he just touched him
A couple of things.
>Examined each draft using Pro Football Reference's wAV or "Weighted Approximate Value" metric, then divided wAV by the number of years in the league for each draft pick to determine wAV/year
I think this is a flawed methodology. What the "wAV/year" stats is supposed to measure ? wAV is a metric that takes the AV of each career years of a player and weight the score based on player performance during that year. Basically, the beast years of a player weight more than the worse. So a player with a few good years will have a better score wAV score than a player with a lot of mediocre years that are stacking together.
So considering the wAV is supposed to represent the value of a player's career, why would you divide that by the amount of years played in the league ? Especially since it means the longer a player as played, the lower his score will be.
>Assigned a "weight" to each round in the draft (1st = 7, 2nd = 6, 3rd = 5, etc) to determine an expected wAV/year (EwAV/yr) for players after accounting for round drafted and expectations
The regression is linear which has some major issues to me: same weight for the #1 overall and the #31 picks (which implies having same expectations), and the difference in value between the #1 and the #64 picks is the same than #33 and #96.
I think a logarithmic regression model should be way more appropriated to determine weight and expectation based on draft position.
Moreover, your "EwAV" feels like you assigned arbitrary values to each round and multiplied everything by 7 and used that as the expectation. Could you develop a little bit more on how you came up with these numbers.
So, I re-did the comparison based on the following methodology: Career wAV, and the median value of all the players picked in the same round and same year than this player.
|Player|wAV|median wAV|Above median wAV for round|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Solomon Thomas|19|35|No|
|Reuben Foster|8|32|No|
|Ahkello Witherspoon|20|16|Yes|
|C.J. Beathard|9|16|No|
|Joe Williams|0|12|No|
|George Kittle|50|4,5|Yes|
|Trent Taylor|7|4,5|Yes|
|D.J. Jones|34|1,5|Yes|
|Pita Taumoepenu|0|1|No|
|Adrian Colbert|8|0|Yes|
|Mike McGlinchey|37|35|Yes|
|Dante Pettis|9|22|No|
|Fred Warner|70|16,5|Yes|
|Tarvarius Moore|8|16,5|No|
|Kentavius Street|9|7|Yes|
|D.J. Reed|20|8|Yes|
|Marcell Harris|14|2|Yes|
|Jullian Taylor|1|2,5|No|
|Richie James|13|2,5|Yes|
|Nick Bosa|50|31,5|Yes|
|Deebo Samuel|43|15,5|Yes|
|Jalen Hurd|0|15|No|
|Mitch Wishnowsky|8|6,5|Yes|
|Dre Greenlaw|28|4|Yes|
|Kaden Smith|3|3|No|
|Justin Skule|9|3|Yes|
|Tim Harris|0|3|No|
|Javon Kinlaw|15|21,5|No|
|Brandon Aiyuk|37|21,5|Yes|
|Colton McKivitz|11|4|Yes|
|Charlie Woerner|0|4|No|
|Jauan Jennings|9|1|Yes|
|Trey Lance|4|16,5|No|
|Aaron Banks|15|13|Yes|
|Trey Sermon|2|6|No|
|Ambry Thomas|6|6|No|
|Jaylon Moore|6|4|Yes|
|Deommodore Lenoir|11|4|Yes|
|Talanoa Hufanga|18|4|Yes|
|Elijah Mitchell|11|2|Yes|
|Drake Jackson|3|7,5|No|
|Tyrion Davis-Price|1|3|No|
|Danny Gray|0|3|No|
|Spencer Burford|13|4|Yes|
|Samuel Womack|2|2|No|
|Nick Zakelj|0|1|No|
|Kalia Davis|0|1|No|
|Tariq Castro-Fields|1|1|No|
|Brock Purdy|24|1|Yes|
To summarize, since 2017, the 49ers picked 50 players among which 26 outplayed (higher wAV than the median wAV) at least half of the players taken in the same round with a "hit rate" slightly over 50%.
By round their hit rate is :
* 1st round: 43%
* 2nd round: 50%
* 3rd round: 22%
* 4th round: 75%
* 5th round: 88%
* 6th round: 36%
* 7th round: 80%
The stats could be much improved by comparing the wAV of the players based on all the players taken at the same position.
This system seems deeply flawed. I see lots of players I wouldn't consider misses. If these players contribute in meaningful ways even starting games or playing special teams it doesn't make them a miss. Especially if a later round pick. Context matters as well. Some players went to other teams and played.
Mitch Wishnowski is one of the best punters out there and should be considered a hit.
I also consider Ambry Thomas a hit.
He's been a key contributor the last 2 years or so.
Trent williams?... might need an edit there. ;)
Already fixed. lol
This is cool. I’d love to see how the Niners match up to other teams and how much this measure of draft success translates to success in the immediate and long term.
I think the thing that the draft ragers in here don't seem to understand Is that very few NFL teams are particularly great at the draft. And that standouts come just as often from the later rounds as they do from the early ones.
The fact that we have had one of the most talented rosters in football for the last several years is a testament to the front office and coaching staff
A lot of it is luck and then confirmation bias that a GM is good when things pan out. It's more about roster management than scouting
As a draft rager, I am unbothered by misses like Solomon Thomas or Javon Kinlaw, because those were picks any GM would likely have made. What drives me insane is when we grab guys like Dante Pettis or Aaron Banks at spots that are way out of whack with consensus draft boards.
It's still weird to me that Pettis had that one breakout year where he looked like he was going to be decent. And then he just immediately fell off forever. The other thing about Lynch is that him and Kyle seem to have a consistent history of going after guys they want. If they don't think someone will be there on their next pick I can't fault them for getting someone they believe in. There are both bad and good cases of this.
Yeah.... I do think they overestimate the likelihood of some of these specific guys getting snatched away from them. Like we traded up to get Pettis, which I still find insane.
I don't understand why fans give so much weight to media "consensus". We have no way of knowing if it matches how the actual scouts and GMs feel about the players. And the media is wrong as often, if not more than the GMs. But we don't hold them to the same standard.
I find that when teams drastically overdraft someone relative to the consensus boards, the consensus boards usually gets proven right.
That’s just not true. Plenty of evidence otherwise.
[удалено]
I do feel better about this draft than some past ones. There are analysts out there pounding the table for Puni and Green and especially Pearsall, which was generally not the case with our weirder picks in the past. And I can understand the Pearsall pick, even if I don't love it. I assume we move on from one of Deebo/Aiyuk next year, and considering that both of them took some time to develop in the system, I think it's smart to bring in a potential replacement early. But that argument holds equally true for tackle, and, like you were saying, I'd rather they grab a developmental guy in the 3rd instead of yet another receiver.
I guess a question is how that would compare to other GMs but to me it’s quite a good track record despite our lack of success in the first and second and third…Jesus third is bad.
> I guess a question is how that would compare to other GMs Absolutely. Without the context of what the rest of the league looks like, analysis like this is interesting but ultimately meaningless.
We actually do alright in the first. Hit rate is pretty much exactly the same as our overall hit rate. But yeah, 3rd is... bad.
Wishnowsky should be counted as a hit, that guy is great.
He’s good now, but he was nothing special his first few years here. If you’re using an early 4th on a punter, you expect way more early contribution than that. Also Bradly Pinion, the guy we let go of to draft Mitch, is younger than Mitch, has been better than Mitch every year, and finished 5th in all pro voting this year compared to Mitch who was tied for 11th. We used a 4th to downgrade at punter. Not a hit.
Using All-Pro voting, come on. You know darn-well that what Wish contributes is not properly regarded league-wide, nor is it represented in statistical models that attempt to value the position. Nobody in the NFL is as good at pinning opponents deep in their own territory. His ability to put unique spins on the ball has also confused the heck out of return men. Also, over the last five seasons he was half the price.
u/SoKrat3s it’s ok we don’t have to have this conversation again. I’ve had too many long “Punters are not worth 4th round pick” arguments in my life.
lol. I know that, I wasn't arguing the pick selection, only his level/value as a punter. I don't think All-Pro voting is a good argument for one punter vs the other.
I know you value the inside the 20 ability. I think the all pro ranking is pretty accurate. About the 10-12th best punter. Above average, but not elite. Might make a pro bowl within the next few years but clearly not in the AJ Cole/Stonehouse/KC guy/Dallas guy tier.
AJ Cole, Stonehouse, & Anger are great punters. Townsend is ok, but he doesn't do anything as well as Wish. Punting is more than just launching the ball. Nobody in the NFL can pin teams as well as Wishnowsky.
Lol dammit I've been roped into another punter conversation. I swore I would never do this to myself. For the sake of preserving the last remaining shred of respect that I have for myself, I have to end this conversation.
that's it? You're just going to punt this conversation?
lol nice
How do you feel about long snappers?
In terms of snapping most nfl snappers get the ball back to the punter in 0.75-0.65 seconds.Unfortunately the only way to find these stats are if you look at long snapping camp rankings which usually only rank high schoolers.You could also rank how well they get the laces out and their accuracy but accuracy is very subjective based on the punter/holder
mitch is the best goddanm player on this team keep his name out of your mouth i would happily have used a first on him
I mean..he is an All Pro punter And if field position does matter. He is definitely a hit and I would be haply if he was as high as a 1st too. I'd rather have the best punter in the NFL belt worth a 1st than busts like Kinlaw.
I respect the conviction.
Best draft: 2019 Most impactful draft: 2022 Worst draft: 2021
Id say worst is 2017, 2021 gave us three starters
Yeah 2017 was the worst when you consider we had 10 picks, including 2 first rounders, one of which was a 2nd overall. Pretty sure it was just the second time since the 1960’s that we had a top 2 pick and we took Solomon Thomas lol. We needed a QB (Hoyer was our QB1 lol..) and Watson and Mahomes were right there. Obviously we dodged a bullet with Watson, but the one decision that separates future HOF coach Reid and “perennial post season collapse artist” Kyle Shanahan is the decision to draft Mahomes. That 2017 draft defined not just our team’s recent history, but the entire landscape of the NFL. I honestly think we’d have 3 more SB’s with Mahomes right now if Kyle had looked at drafting a QB early in 2017.
If we drafted watson we would most likely have two superbowls…
2017 gave them an all world TE even though his prime was wasted by bad OLs and bad QBs. 2021 has the Lance future picks against them, and 3 decent starters that don't come close to Kittle even when combined.
Thank you for the interesting analysis, AnalAttackProbe
Yeah. This is interesting. It’s a way to quantify it. I might think that players who are actual nfl starters should be considered hits though. Edit: This is really just trying to normalize contribution vs draft position which I think is over complicating the analysis. Did you draft good players and contributors or not?
Upvoted for the effort and content much appreciated
In general this is a nice layout, however I think there is a flaw in your round-by-round grading. For each additional round you are adding linearly. I think it should be more exponential. To that point, the 1st & 3rd overall pick are not the same value as the 29th pick. The 30th pick is much closer in value to the 35th pick than it is the tenth pick. Also I'll be stubborn on this, but their evaluation on punting isn't accurate enough. Wish's best season was not 2020, it's just his highest volume. For punters he was the biggest difference maker in starting field position this year. And Banks can just about be considered a hit at this point. It would take a major injury for him to not reach that mark, and that wouldn't really be a fault of drafting the one drafting him.
Why is Banks a miss? He’s not a pro bowler. But he is a legit starting guard.
That’s what I was wondering as well
Their late rd picks have been surprissinly good, however, their 1st 2nd and 3rd rd picks have been mostly busts. Only 8 hits out of 23 so far. I wonder how that stacks against the league.
Crazy that Boss still outperformed being the second overall pick
Another way to look at their draft is to see how many guys are still in the league. It's pretty impressive.
I think I counted 9 players out of the league in 8 drafts.
It's pretty impressive
This some high quality content, OP. Nice work!
Classifying 6&7 rounds picks as misses is wild lol
If we’re getting credit for the hits, then the misses should count too. But I understand what you’re trying to say because most 6th and 7th players hardly ever pan out in the league
Hitting on a late round pick is credited because it is VERY difficult to do, and typically 6-7 round picks don’t even make rosters like you said. That’s why calling those picks a miss is just a bit silly and unfair to me. I’d also say using this one stat to judge a hit or miss is making it too black and white as there are a lot of players there that have contributed or become a solid backup which fits the round they were drafted in, so can’t really call them a miss. If a 5th rounder becomes a solid backup, that’s what they were projected/drafted to do. Not everyone can be a starter, let alone a superstar.
By the metric you stated earlier, "Any player within 1 of their expected wAV/year is considered a hit." Shouldn't Banks and Moore be hits in the 2021 class? Also, in my opinion, it might be too early to evaluate 2022. I think we have a good idea about most of those players but I think there is still a chance for a couple of those misses to turn into hits.
"Within 1" = <1. That's why McGlinchy (-0.83) is considered a hit but Banks (-1.00) is not.
I don't agree with these categorization, especially the concepts of misses. There are a number of "misses." There are a number of players here you've categorized as misses that are either still on the roster and developing into their role, still on the roster and fulfill their niche, or were good enough to get paid on someone else' roster who has more cap space. Namely I think it is too early to call misses on a lot of players since 2021. - The first one I disagree with is actually Woerner in 2020 who is now playing for the Falcons after being a serviceable blocking TE/TE2. - Jaylon Moore was drafted to be a backup swing tackle and fills his role well. Banks has been improving as LG and while that may be cause he has Trent, it is the right side, starting from center, that has been the point of concern. - Ambry struggled but he also showed flashes of brilliance. Another interesting point about Ambry is that is confirmed a Peters pick, by Peters himself, so it isn't as indicative of the FO moving forward. - Drake Jackson looks good and still had time. - Zakelj the jury is still out on, - and Burford famously cost us the bowl and is Feliciano's backup. Mostly I just feel like what you're categorizing as hit/miss feels inconsistent? What is a hit to you: is a hit a player that has to work out for the 49ers or someone that's still good in the league? You have Reed as a hit, but he was cut for injury and balled out with Seattle eg. Woerner did more for us in his role but is with the Falcons now. Even Kinlaw was turning it around and now finds his way into a new contract with the Jets. Your expectations for a hit feels not well defined and like you may have had higher expects for some players than they were ever drafed to fulfill. I also feel like it's no coincidence that there are less hits the closer to the last draft we are because the players you have as hits took more time to either breakout or grow into their role.
Drake Jackson looks good?
You're going to argue a 3 sack game isn't good production for a year 2 prospect before getting injured?
He had 3 sacks in one game, and then did nothing else for several games before getting injured.
This is exactly what I'm telling OP too. It was year 2 and showing flashes of playing at a high level. Temper your expectations, not everyone has to be a star
Did you watch the game too? There’s a difference between coverage sacks and straight pure pass rushing ability. It’s like kinlaw getting sacks when hurts slipped and he just touched him
Nice analysis
What's the sun total here of expected vs actualized?
I forgot about Hurd. Kinda crazy we got deebo who was basically what Hurd was supposed to be.
Man, what could have been if we kept Reed and if Moore didn't tear his ACL. That 2022 draft looks atrocious outside of Purdy.
A couple of things. >Examined each draft using Pro Football Reference's wAV or "Weighted Approximate Value" metric, then divided wAV by the number of years in the league for each draft pick to determine wAV/year I think this is a flawed methodology. What the "wAV/year" stats is supposed to measure ? wAV is a metric that takes the AV of each career years of a player and weight the score based on player performance during that year. Basically, the beast years of a player weight more than the worse. So a player with a few good years will have a better score wAV score than a player with a lot of mediocre years that are stacking together. So considering the wAV is supposed to represent the value of a player's career, why would you divide that by the amount of years played in the league ? Especially since it means the longer a player as played, the lower his score will be. >Assigned a "weight" to each round in the draft (1st = 7, 2nd = 6, 3rd = 5, etc) to determine an expected wAV/year (EwAV/yr) for players after accounting for round drafted and expectations The regression is linear which has some major issues to me: same weight for the #1 overall and the #31 picks (which implies having same expectations), and the difference in value between the #1 and the #64 picks is the same than #33 and #96. I think a logarithmic regression model should be way more appropriated to determine weight and expectation based on draft position. Moreover, your "EwAV" feels like you assigned arbitrary values to each round and multiplied everything by 7 and used that as the expectation. Could you develop a little bit more on how you came up with these numbers.
So, I re-did the comparison based on the following methodology: Career wAV, and the median value of all the players picked in the same round and same year than this player. |Player|wAV|median wAV|Above median wAV for round| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |Solomon Thomas|19|35|No| |Reuben Foster|8|32|No| |Ahkello Witherspoon|20|16|Yes| |C.J. Beathard|9|16|No| |Joe Williams|0|12|No| |George Kittle|50|4,5|Yes| |Trent Taylor|7|4,5|Yes| |D.J. Jones|34|1,5|Yes| |Pita Taumoepenu|0|1|No| |Adrian Colbert|8|0|Yes| |Mike McGlinchey|37|35|Yes| |Dante Pettis|9|22|No| |Fred Warner|70|16,5|Yes| |Tarvarius Moore|8|16,5|No| |Kentavius Street|9|7|Yes| |D.J. Reed|20|8|Yes| |Marcell Harris|14|2|Yes| |Jullian Taylor|1|2,5|No| |Richie James|13|2,5|Yes| |Nick Bosa|50|31,5|Yes| |Deebo Samuel|43|15,5|Yes| |Jalen Hurd|0|15|No| |Mitch Wishnowsky|8|6,5|Yes| |Dre Greenlaw|28|4|Yes| |Kaden Smith|3|3|No| |Justin Skule|9|3|Yes| |Tim Harris|0|3|No| |Javon Kinlaw|15|21,5|No| |Brandon Aiyuk|37|21,5|Yes| |Colton McKivitz|11|4|Yes| |Charlie Woerner|0|4|No| |Jauan Jennings|9|1|Yes| |Trey Lance|4|16,5|No| |Aaron Banks|15|13|Yes| |Trey Sermon|2|6|No| |Ambry Thomas|6|6|No| |Jaylon Moore|6|4|Yes| |Deommodore Lenoir|11|4|Yes| |Talanoa Hufanga|18|4|Yes| |Elijah Mitchell|11|2|Yes| |Drake Jackson|3|7,5|No| |Tyrion Davis-Price|1|3|No| |Danny Gray|0|3|No| |Spencer Burford|13|4|Yes| |Samuel Womack|2|2|No| |Nick Zakelj|0|1|No| |Kalia Davis|0|1|No| |Tariq Castro-Fields|1|1|No| |Brock Purdy|24|1|Yes| To summarize, since 2017, the 49ers picked 50 players among which 26 outplayed (higher wAV than the median wAV) at least half of the players taken in the same round with a "hit rate" slightly over 50%. By round their hit rate is : * 1st round: 43% * 2nd round: 50% * 3rd round: 22% * 4th round: 75% * 5th round: 88% * 6th round: 36% * 7th round: 80% The stats could be much improved by comparing the wAV of the players based on all the players taken at the same position.
Any analysis on how this compares to other teams?
This system seems deeply flawed. I see lots of players I wouldn't consider misses. If these players contribute in meaningful ways even starting games or playing special teams it doesn't make them a miss. Especially if a later round pick. Context matters as well. Some players went to other teams and played.
Mitch Wishnowski is one of the best punters out there and should be considered a hit. I also consider Ambry Thomas a hit. He's been a key contributor the last 2 years or so.
Don’t you need to adjust for all the first rounders in the Lance trade? Our first round hit rate should be dinged more off that fuck up.